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October 24, 2006

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

capitalbutton.gif A daily update of ads, polls, trends and analyses from the hottest House races. tracker.jpg
 Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

1. Like Pitching In Montreal: Ex-Phillies pitcher/Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) arrived in PA 07 to "lend his star power" to Rep. Curt Weldon (R) 10/22. Yet instead of finding "a classic campaign event," he found 200 GOPers on "an isolated rural estate." Bunning: "I've been to lots of these, but this is the first one I've attended that isn't on a paved road." The very private affair was "a fitting symbol for a campaign under siege" (Philadelphia Inquirer).

2. An Ad To Remember: AD WATCH: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) launched a new ad 10/23 featuring Iraq war vet Jason Murray, who lost his eyesight during the Iraq war. Full Script, "Cut and Run":

MURRAY: I am Corporal Jason Murray. I served with 2nd Battalion, 4th Marines in Iraq. To have Marilyn Musgrave come out, sit down on the couch, and have a heart to heart one-on-one talk with me -- it was an honor. It disgusts me to see Angie Paccione attacking Marilyn Musgrave. For Angie Paccione to propose the cut-and-run philosophy in Iraq is a disgrace. What did I sacrifice my eyesight for? Marilyn Musgrave truly cares about veterans"

3. As the race heats up in WI 08 between allergist Steve Kagen (D) and state Assemb. John Gard (R), "harsh rhetoric" has become a central issue. A recent TV ad Kagen aired accusing Gard "of Pinnochio-like lying." As the ad ran, "a profile image shows Gard's nose growing longer and longer." The ad concluded Gard is "the most corrupt politician in Madison." After "several days," Kagen's camp said the reference to Gard's corruption came from Rep. Jay Johnson (D-WI), who "made the comment in private conversation." In a new ad, mud splatters across Gard's face on the screen, as Kagen attacks Gard.

Meanwhile, Gard's "crying foul" and he and GOPers "have hardly been holding back." Their ads "rip Kagen as favoring higher taxes, amnesty for illegal immigrants and the abolition of the federal Medicare drug benefit, and for coldly suing his patients" (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

4. Extra Innings: In CT 04, UConn Center for Survey Research & Analysis poll; conducted 10/16-22 for the Hartford Courant; surveyed 805 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/24). Tested: Rep. Chris Shays (R) and ex-Westport First Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D). 

General Election Matchup            Want To See ___ Control Cong.?
                    Now 10/1        Dems             54%
Shays               43% 46%         GOPers           29
Farrell             43  41
Other/undec         14  13

5. Off To The Races: In NV 02, aMellman Group (D) poll; conducted 10/14-16 for State Univ. Regent Jill Derby (D); surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/22). Tested: Derby and Sec/State Dean Heller (R). Party ID breakdown: 34%D, 48%R, 18%I/O. 

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav
                 Now 9/10           Heller           38%/28%
Heller           40% 44%            Derby            36 /19
Derby            40  35
Other/undec      20  21

Posted at 04:05 PM

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