October 24, 2006

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

1. Wishing And Hoping: If GOPers keep TN and VA, they could control of the Senate. Two New polls reveal how the races are heating up.

Lot More Dems Yet To Come Home: In VA, a Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 10/17-19; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/24). Tested: Sen. George Allen (R) and ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D). Geographic abbreviations: NoVA is Northern Virginia. S/P is Shenandoah and the Piedmont. Rich is Richmond Metro area. Ham is Hampton Roads. L/S is Lynchburg and the Southside. R/S is Roanoke and SW VA.

General Election Matchup
             All Dem GOP Ind NoVA S/P Rich Ham L/S R/S 9/27 9/7 
Allen        47%  8% 90% 39% 40%  53% 53%  42% 53% 48% 43%  46% 
Webb         43  80   7  46  50   38  36   47  40  41  43   42 
Other/undec  10  12   3  15  10    9  11   11   7  11  14   12 

Bush As Pres.    Now 9/7 7/06       Fav/unfav      Now    9/27
Excel/good       42% 42% 43%        Allen        42%/39% 40%/32%
Fair/poor        56  57  56         Webb         34 /28  31 /20

Bush Handling Situation In Iraq     Bush Handling Economy
             All Dem GOP Ind                     All Dem GOP Ind
Approve      43% 10% 77% 37%        Approve      54% 12% 94% 51%
Disapprove   51  88  13  55         Disapprove   39  78   5  39

Think Accusations That Allen Used   Which Party Would You Prefer 
Racial Slurs While A Student At     Be In Control Of The Sen?
UVA Are ___? All Dem GOP Ind        Dem          45% 96%  4% 41%
True         30% 43% 16% 31%        GOP          43  --  90  35
False        28   8  50  23
Not sure     42  49  34  46

General Election Matchup
             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom East Mid West Irq Mor Ter H/C
Corker       45% 11% 85% 31% 48% 43% 50%  45% 39%  22%  85%  88% 12%  
Ford         43  81   7  50  42  44  40   45  46  74  7   7   67  
Other/undec  12   8   8  19  10  13  10   10  15    4   8   5  21

Fav/Unfav                           Bush As Pres.
Corker           46%/27%            Approve              46%
Ford             45 /36             Disapprove           51

Cong. Job Approval                  Dir. Of US
Approve              25%            Right dir.           28%
Disapprove           63             Wrong track          57

Approve Of Bush Admin Policies      Most Important Issue To Your Vote?
In Iraq?                            Iraq                 22%
Approve              44%            Moral/family values  15
Disapprove           47             Terrorism/security   14
                                    Health care          14
Think Hastert Should Step Down Over Economy/jobs         10
Handling Of Foley Scandal?          Immigration           9
Yes, resign          34%            Taxes/spending        6
No, remain           32

3. Cute, Tacky, Or Race-Baiting?: Meanwhile, a new RNC TV ad "featuring a scantily clad white woman winking and inviting" Ford to "call me" is "drawing charges of race-baiting." Critics claim the ad "plays on fears of interracial relationships to scare some white voters in rural" TN to oppose Ford. RNC spokesperson Danny Diaz said he "won't even entertain the premise" that the ad is racially offensive and called the allegation "not fair and not serious and not accurate." Yet RNC chair Ken Mehlman thus "did not see or approve the ad before its release."

Vanderbilt prof John Geer: "I just couldn't believe what I was seeing. I don't see how you can think it's not playing a racial card. It's making references to interracial sex. It's an ad that is in some sense breaking new lows" (LA Times).

Posted at 02:21 PM

Comments

Post a comment