October 28, 2006
The Saturday Brunch
A special news digest from the staff of the Hotline.
Latest NRCC TV Buys…..Hastert on the “clear” choice….Negron notice back up in FL 16…. Bush’s election week schedule….
Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors
WHAT'S BREWING
Housing market slumps; stock market drops; how will voters in battleground districts pick up on, filter, or digest, the smallest GDP growth in a while?
The NRCC made six-figure TV ad buys in the following CDs yesterday: CO 04, FL 16, IN 09, NM 01, OH 15, TX 22, VA 02, AZ 05, IA 01, IL 08, NV 02, WY AL, NY 29, NV 03, CO 05. The semi-surprises are CO 04, CO 05 and WY AL, particularly the two CO districts which anecdotal evidence suggested had edged out of the danger zone for the GOP.
Also of note, the OTHER NRA (the Nat'l Restaurant Assn), made two-six figure TV ad buys in support of Rep. Ric Keller (R-FL 08) who may or may not be in a competitive race. And in support of Mike Whalen in IA 01.
Meanwhile, the Dem-supporting group VoteVets.org made six-figure TV ad buys in NY 20, MN 01 and NV 03.
According to a Hotline source with access to TV ad placements, the NRSC I.E. has purchased time in MT starting Tuesday. The NRSC hasn't aired an ad on behalf of Conrad Burns since early August. This comes on the heels of anecdotal chatter and one poll indicating the Burns has closed the gap on Dem Jon Tester.
Here's a wild card: Republicans think they have a shot, if they play their cards right, of picking up GA 08, a district where Pres. Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry by more than 25K votes in '04. Dem Jim Marshall is the current occupant. That explains why Pres. Bush will spend Monday and Tuesday in two relatively small media markets. He's in Statesboro, GA for Ex-Rep. Max Burns on Monday and in Perry, GA for Ex-Rep. Mac Collins Tuesday. Collins faces Marshall in CD 08; Burns faces Rep. John Barrow in GA 12. Marshall and Barrow know how to win in these districts, but the one catch: the Republican GOTV program statewide, a legacy of Ralph Reed's '02 efforts, is very strong, and there's a significant tailwind behind Gov. Sonny Perdue's re-election bid. Also Monday, Bush visits TX 22 -- Sugar Land, TX, to campaign for Sheila Sekula-Gibbs.
Next week, Bush will also be in NV and MT. There are rumors that Bush will spend the Monday before the election in Missouri, but we're not so sure....
Everyone's panicking. A veteran Republican field who's spent time in Iowa and Florida recently e-mails us in horror: "There's no volunteers. None. Zero." And a Democratic chief of staff to a House member now gives his party a less than 50 percent chance of regaining control of the House. To both we say: breathe! The DNC and the DSCC/DCCC, and the RNC all claim to be exceeding their absentee vote/early vote totals. Both parties officially profess to be satisfied about the number of voter contacts.
Business hedges its bets; doubles down on contributions to Democrats, late.
Speaker Dennis Hastert on RedState: "In short, Democrats do not believe in the Global War on Terror. I don't mean that they don't support it, though they don't. What I mean is Democrats don't believe the war actually exists. While Republicans believe the biggest threat to American freedom and security is the evil ideology that planned and executed the murder of 3,000 of our countrymen five years ago, and continues planning today, Democrats think the biggest threat to America is... Republicans."
Diana DeGette (D-CO) for whip? TNR's well-sourced Michael Crowley says it might happen...unless maybe-Speaker Pelosi puts up roadblocks.
Dick Armey for President?
The Cato Institutes LOVES Matt Blunt (R). Gov. Mike Huckabee? Eeeh... Not so much.
An interesting presidential poll from Clemson. Good for McCain and Rudy. Romney still has some name rec. issues in SC.
Forbes Magazine has a lengthy examination of Giuliani Capital… plenty of fodder for the ’08 clip file.
O’Reilly v. Letterman Part II.
SENATE RACES
MD: The Cook Report's Jennifer Duffy now rates the MD Senate race as a tossup.
TN: Terry Nelson, the head of the RNC IE, is no longer a consultant to Wal-Mart.
TN: Curtain-raising tonight's final debate in Nashville where "70 state, national and international media representatives registered to cover the debate by Friday."
NJ: Sen. Bob Menendez was named in a Hudson Co. corruption lawsuit.
WA: Yesterday, Mike McGavick (R) dumped another $500K of personal money into his campaign.
VA: Drudge-Allen v. Webb makes A1 of the Post, is derided by the Daily Press, is covered fairly normally by Jeff Shapiro, and pales in importance to Gail Parker's negotiations to drop out of the race.
HOUSE RACES
Wave four of the DCCC's Red To Blue list: ... Ellen Simon (AZ-01) ... Charlie Brown (CA-04) ... Jerry McNerney (CA-11) ... Francine Busby (CA-50) Jay Fawcett (CO-05) ... Larry Grant (ID-01) ..., John Yarmuth (KY-03) ... Tim Walz (MN-01) .... Larry Kissell (NC-08) Dave Mejias (NY-03) ... John Hall (NY-19) .... Jack Davis (NY-26) ..... Eric Massa (NY-29) ..... Victoria Wulsin (OH-02) ..... Jason Altmire (PA-04) .... Judy Feder (VA-10) ..... Peter Goldmark (WA-05)
FL 16: An appeals court rules in favor of posting signs about the Negron - Foley substitute: "In light of the ample powers vested in election officials to educate, inform, and instruct voters, it is unreasonable to assume that Florida law mandates that voters be kept in the dark about these circumstances while the identity of the actual, lawful candidate is concealed from view. Confused voters should not be required to guess as to how their vote will be counted, or be forced to question poll workers and rely on the potentially inconsistent, incomplete, or partial information provided by the poll workers.”
CT 04: Shays apologizes; his office, he says, forgot to report on a personal disclosure form a Grover Norquist funded trip. (The trip was reported to the Clerk of the House.)
NV 03: Rep. Jon Porter released schedules and phone records as part of an effort to discredit former staffer allegations that he broke fundraising laws by calling donors from his congressional office.
PA 06: Gerlach, Murphy spar over Iraq War, Patriot Act, illegal immigrants, and taxes.
GOVERNORS RACES
CA: Obama-mania: Barack spent the day in SoCal
FL: The latest St. Pete Times Poll: Crist 48, Davis 42
AZ: Early voting in Maricopa County is “strong” including one anomaly: Nearly 90K more GOPers than Dems requested ballots but have not mailed them back yet, more than double the usual number. Local campaign strategists say the increased number of GOP requests are due to coordinated state and federal GOP efforts.
VT: Looking for evidence of blue states getting bluer? Incumbent GOP Gov. Jim Douglas, a shoo-in for re-election, only leads his Dem opponent (Scudder Parker) in the very blue state of Vermont by 10 points, 51-41%, according to the latest Research 2000 poll.
NV: More than 85,000 Nevadans voted in the first week of early voting with Dems outnumbering GOPers in Las Vegas but trailing in Reno, tending to reflect overall registration. A Reno Gazette-Journal poll shows Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) leading Dem Dina Titus 47%-41%. Gibbons leads 51%-37% among men and Titus leads 45% to 43% among women.
MI: the governor's race is costing both candidates collectively $56M
Posted at 10:22 AM
Comments
Post a comment
Copyright 2008 by National Journal Group Inc.
The Watergate · 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20037
202-739-8400 · fax 202-833-8069
NationalJournal.com is an Atlantic Media publication.
