October 28, 2006
The Saturday Brunch
A special news digest from the Hotline.
An October Surprise In New Jersey? (See Our Transom) .... SCOTUS Keeps AZ ID Law In Place For Now.. Gibbons Still In Trouble IN NV.... .... Stingy GOP Senators .... A Nasty Ad May Have Backfired... Elizabeth Edwards Apologizes To HRC...
Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors
WHAT'S BREWING
Citing procedural errors by the 9th circuit, SCOTUS overturned an order enjoining AZ from enforcing its new voter ID requirements. Due to the lack of time between now and election day, Justice Anthony Kennedy held the law will be enforced. The law requires voters to show one form of photo ID that includes an address or two forms non-photo ID (utility bill or vehicle registration).
Worry: Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist asks GOP activists for "urgent:" donations, writing that "[w]nfortunately, we are still short of the financial resources needed to have the maximum impact in every one of the battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Tennessee, Montana, Missouri, and even Virginia."
On the list of Republican senators with no '06 race and bulging campaign accounts: Sen. Norm Coleman, who has asked the NRSC to send more $$ to MN to help Mark Kennedy. He's given the NRSC only $15K and has more than 1.8 million in the bank. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has written a $115K check; she has a cool $9.5 million in her account. Sen. Richard Lugar, who is literally running television ads in IN featuring himself, has given $150K and had as of 9/30 about $2.9 million on hand. Sen. Richard Shelby has $11.6 million and was generous enough to fork over $15K.
Some good news for Republicans, according to an MSNBC report. Disgraced ex-lobbyist Jack Abramoff won't report to federal prison until 11/15, one week AFTER the mid-term elections. The bad news? A judge is allowing Abramoff to serve time in a Cumberland, MD, prison, so he can be within driving distance of DC, allowing him to "continue to assist prosecutors while in prison."
DCCC chair Rahm E. shows off a bit in an e-mail to Dems: "On Wednesday alone, we paid for $12 million worth of ads across the country, including massive buys challenging Republicans in three Indiana races, another three in Ohio, and five more in Pennsylvania. We have expanded the playing field to nearly 50 districts! And we are implementing custom field plans in 40 districts with hundreds of volunteers knocking on doors to get out the vote every single day."
Speaker Pelosi?: Both the LA Times and Washington Post have lengthy looks at the-woman-who-could-be-Speaker.
Elizabeth Edwards calls and apologizes to HRC -- she's sorry she said she's led a happier life.
Arguably unfair to Sen. John Kerry, but the share the wealth story is now in the Globe.
Sens. John Kerry, Chris Dodd and Evan Bayh are all in NH today. Carol Shea Porter and Paul Hodes are getting mucho attention. Wes Clark made four stops across the state Friday, and said, "I haven't said I won't" run in '08.
The WSJ nicely sums up Sen. John McCain's political year, complete with a Terry Nelson mention, the noun "spadework," and an admiring tone.
Gov. Mitt Romney praises judges while in MA; outside the state...eh...he says something a little different
Meet and Tim host Obama and a kick-butt roundtable including our own Charlie Cook. Fans of Amy Walter, meanwhile, can get their fix on Face, which hosts Dole and Schumer, too. This Week features George's interview with Pres. Bush, then Sen. John Kerry. Lugar, Warner, Biden and Levin are on Fox News Sunday. Sens. Frist, Reed and Hutchison are on Late Edition.
SENATE RACES
TN: Caught on tape: a confrontation between Harold Ford, Jr and Bob Corker. Tense stuff. An argument on Iraq. Corker calls forward desperate, to his face. Corker: "This is my press conference, not yours." Ford: "I'd love to really talk about Iraq." Meanwhile, the RNC ad attacking Ford is too tacky for TV. (Nashville Tennessean) And Corker reports loaned funds as gifts; out-of-state donors help Ford. Nashville Tennessean)
VA: Heading of Allen press release: "Webb Raises Money with Another Tax Hiker: President Clinton." Heading of Webb release: "Polls Dictate Allen’s Iraq Position." That amount sums up the race right now. BTW: The NRSC has bought ad time in VA.
WA: In this age when airtime reservations are instantly picked up by the other side and revealed to the media, it's hard to miss a trick. Neither the NRSC nor the RNC has reserved time for Mike McGavick.
NY: HRC and Spencer face off in Rochester, NY (= first of two debates this weekend). HRC says she's thought about WH bid, criticizes Bush.
HOUSE RACES
The NRCC dumped another $8.5M into races on Friday.
NY 24: The nastiest, silliest ad of the cycle may have backfired: … "ANCR: A phone number to an “adult fantasy hotline” appeared on Michael Arcuri’s New York City hotel room bill while he was there on official business. And the call was charged to Oneida County taxpayers. Arcuri has denied it, But the facts are there. Who calls a fantasy hotline and then bills taxpayers? Michael Arcuri. WOMAN: Bad Call. The National Republican Congressional Committee paid for and is responsible for the content of this message."
No stations ended up airing that ad...... The local dailies pounded the NRCC morning. So maybe the media coverage will do what the ad couldn't.
From the Syracuse Post Standard:
"Even Arcuri's opponent, Republican Ray Meier, denounced the steamy ad that depicts Arcuri leering at the silhouette of a "dancing girl" who says, "Hi, sexy. You've reached the live, one-on-one fantasy line." Meier asked the ad's sponsor, the National Republican Congressional Committee, to pull the plug. But the committee refused to discuss the issue, saying it is not allowed under campaign finance laws to talk to the candidate, said Nicole Austin, Meier's communications director."
PA 07: Weldon spars with Sestak one last time, criticizes Sestak/media for attacking his kids. (Philadelphia Inquirer)
IA 03: A few days before the POTUS apperance, Lamberti and Boswell are tangling over veterans' issues
FL 22: A Research 2000 poll has Rep. Clay Shaw (R) leading Ron Klein 48-43; Nearly half of those surveyed don't have an opinion of Klein at this late date. Meanwhile, FPOTUS Clinton campaigned for Klein.
GOVERNORS RACES
NV: According to police reports released 10/18, Rep. Jim Gibbons current story about the 10/14 incident at the Hughes Center with Chrissy Mazzeo differs from what Gibbons told police 10/15. Both Gibbons and Mazzeo told police Gibbons had a hotel near the restaurant so close they could “crawl back” to it. A detailed timeline of each parties differing accounts. Transcript of police interviews from that night.
CA: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger gives $3.5 mil. to own campaign despite large lead in polls.
IA: Culver will consider rights for same-sex couples down the road.
IL: According to Hotline sources, Treas. Judy Baar Topinka's campaign is off the air this weekend, less than three weeks before election day. The earliest she could go back on the air is Monday afternoon at this point. Will she go on that soon or is she saving money for the last week?
CROSSING OUR TRANSOM
On 10/26, the chief of justice of the New Jersey supreme court, Deborah T. Poritz, turns 70, and will retire. Pending before her court at this writing is a potentially explosive same-sex marriage case. In '02, two gay couples sued New Jersey for denying them the right to marry. The Supreme Court finally heard oral arguments in Feb. It has yet to unveil its decision.
Consider the political repercussions if NJ becomes the second state in the country to legalize gay marriage.
Poritz's questions suggest she'll vote to expand the definition of marriage. If the court doesn't rule by next Thursday, they'll be forced to rehear the case with the new chief justice. Observers are fairly certain that the court, will, in fact, tender a decision by Oct. 26.
"The New Jersey Supreme Court is famously assertive and famously liberal," one court watcher e-mailed us. " On the other hand, they have also been accused of being attuned to political undercurrents -- think of the Torricelli decision."
Gay rights advocates are fairly optimistic about the case on its merits but worry about the backlash if the court rules before the election.
Posted at 11:47 AM
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