November 30, 2006

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Hotline_PN_logo-sm.gif Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Sayfie's Review -- Times: Florida GOP Sees Big Role In 2008

NhNewslinks.com -- SNL: Blunt Faces First Session In The Minority

Quorum Report -- Kinky Furniture? It's Hot In South Austin

WisPolitics.com -- Senate Will Get Rid Of Paper Ballots

Capitol Fax If You’re Heading Home From Session…

JohnCombest.com -- Lynch Wants Murray Gone

Posted 11.30.06 04:00 PM | Comments (0)

Today On Hotline TV: What's The Harman Watching?

Nancy Pelosi already had one leadership decision to make. Now she's got an intelligence committee chair to assign. We get the highly classified scoop on just what her decision will mean.

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Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 11.30.06 03:15 PM | Comments (1)

Back To The Future

It's never too early to start thinking about '08, which promises to be a volatile cycle even without a national wave.
Here are four categories of both parties' most vulnerable seats:

  • Untested Dems in Dem Districts: Some of the biggest upsets occurred in CDs that are trending Dem. But Reps.-elect Dave Loebsack (IA 02), Carol Shea-Porter (NH 01) and John Hall (NY 19) will have to prove they can run effective campaigns in a less-favorable environment.
  • Dems in GOP Districts: Will Jerry McNerney (CA 11) and Steve Kagen's (WI 08) voting records match their liberal campaign rhetoric? Zack Space (OH 18), Nancy Boyda (KS 02), Chris Carney (PA 10) and Nick Lampson (TX 22) also need to position themselves in tune with their conservative CDs.
  • Northeast GOPers: Reps. Jim Gerlach (PA 06) and Chris Shays (CT 04) can expect another tough challenge for '08. And add Charlie Dent (PA 15) to the list of likely Dem targets.
  • Outgoing GOPers: Will Rep. Ralph Regula (OH 16) or Bill Young (FL 10) retire? Will Heather Wilson (NM 01) run for the Senate? If they do, those seats would become highly competitive.
  • Posted 11.30.06 02:30 PM | Comments (4)

    The 2008 Democrats

    Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

    A panel on the 2008 Democratic Presidential Contenders with Anita Dunn (representing Bayh), Jessica Vanden Berg (representing Clark), Steve Murphy (representing Richardson), Doug Sosnik (representing Dodd), Jennifer Palmieri (representing Edwards) and unafilliated strategist Jim Jordan. The Hotline's own John Mercurio is moderating.

    Question: What lessons did Democrats learn from '06 that they can use for '08?

    Palmieri: "Most people who went to the voting booth were voting on economic issues... We had a big demographic change for the better for us."

    Dunn: "The importance of not being part of an excessively partisan Washington political environment... I think you saw a middle class revolt of Washington politicians... It always goes against the party that's perceived to be in power."

    Murphy: "The economy was a very harmful issue for the Republicans along with Iraq."

    Vanden Berg: "I think one really important thing that we really did (in Webb '06) was not to cede anything to the Republicans." Webb talked about economic policy and Iraq across the state even in rural areas. "In order to win in '08 -- the foreign policy, national security issues aren't going to get any better -- It's really important that the candidates clearly articulate those issues too."

    Sosnik: "The importance of running quality candidates, and candidate who fit their communities."

    Jordan: "The re-recognition... of the swing voter."

    Question: How will Democrats’ “liberal” and “progressive” values play out in ‘08?

    Palmieri: “Edwards is not just a political label kind of guy. People want authenticity. You can be a liberal in the Democratic party and do well, but not if you’re faking it.” Same goes for moderates. “And people can tell when you’re faking it.

    Vanden Berg: “I just don’t think those labels really exist anymore.”

    Murphy: “You better have an answer on Iraq.” Candidates will have to state their plans soon after the Baker-Hamilton report coming up. “I think the Democratic candidate will have to say what they’ll do to get us out of Iraq…”

    More Murphy: “A conservative Republican nominee who has passed universal health insurance is a very dangerous candidate… That’s going to be the big domestic issue.” Dunn signaled she agreed.

    Will Democrats have a harder time running against Republicans in ’08?

    Jordan: “I think we saw the elimination of the positive Bush brand… The face of the Republican party is now Tom Tancredo and George Allen, and that’s a wonderful thing for us.” More Jordon: “This (Dem) field ideologically… there’s no gap ideologically.”

    Murphy: “Authenticity does dominate this… Voters will be looking for somebody who has very strong positions on the issues. Later on they’ll make a very strong judgment on who will make the best president.”

    Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack announced today. Please explain whether he has an impact on your Iowa strategy.

    Sosnik: “I don’t think we’re in politics any longer where people take states for granted… I think people at their peril underestimate Tom Vilsack.”

    Dunn: “I can’t recall the last time we had a group of candidates that were as strong or as formidable… You’re going to have to beat a lot of very formidable candidates everywhere to win this…” Iowa “is still a very retail-oriented process,” where unpaid media isn’t everything “at the end of the day.”

    How much of a role will money play? How much will a candidate have to raise by June 30, 2007?

    Sosnik: “If you have a message and a compelling rationale, with the internet you can raise money.”

    Jordon: $15 million. “There’s an opening bid somewhere between $20 and $30… but $60 million isn’t twice as good as $30 million. There are diminishing returns… You don’t need to raise $70 million by the start of caucuses.”

    What is the selling point for your candidate running against Hillary Clinton?

    Murphy: “Bill Richardson is going to be the pro-growth economic candidate...” Richardson is “someone who has dealt with the bad guys, dealt with the world leaders… And we all know that Governors make the best candidates”

    Palmieri: “I think the problem is that (rural voters) just think we look down our nose at them… That’s a major hurdle…this nominee can’t be that. This nominee has to be someone who connects with everyone.”

    What’s more important: red state appeal or strong national security credentials?

    Palmieri: “Last time we decided on a candidate because of his strong war record… I don’t think it’s going to be like that this time. I think people look at it and say it’s more of a feeling that they get about what kind of person who is… I think the base wants to…vote for the person we think is us.”

    Dunn: “Of the 29 seats picked up in the house, 10 were in the Midwest. If you don’t win the Midwest Heartland, the margins don’t matter. People tend to take Evan Bayh for granted.”

    Which endorsement is more important in the primary: Daily Kos or AFL-CIO head John Sweeney?

    Sosnik: “I’ll take the local community leaders in Iowa and New Hampshires any day” over those two choices.

    Murphy: “I will advise my candidate to go after… the netroots really hard. …If you get support from activists with the kind of energy that the netroots have, you’re going to have an advantage.”

    Posted 11.30.06 01:33 PM | Comments (0)

    The 2008 Republicans

    Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

    A panel on the 2008 Republican race, with Rich Galen, Dave Kensinger (representing Sam Brownback), Mark McKinnon (representing John McCain), Jan van Lohuizen (representing Gov. Mitt Romney) and Alex Vogel (an adviser to Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN).


    Who Is The Frontrunner?

    Vogel: "The historical view is.. Republicans always, someone runs, they don;'t blow themselves up, it;'s yours. By historical definition, it;'s McCain. I think you look at top-tier candidates now, you have McCain, you have Giuliani and you have Romney..."

    Galen: "I think at this moment that it's a two-way tie between McCain and Romney." Re: Giuliani: "I would go interview that ran Schwarzenegger's campaign ... he got 91 percent of the Republican vote in a state where the Republican Party is pretty right-wing. I think that that tells us something about where at least in California I think Republicans may well be more eager to win than they are to lose on the point on an ideological sword."

    Kensinger: "In terms of name recognition, Giuliani tops the field with McCain a close second. In terms of demonstrated ability to raise funds, you've got to put Romney in there. But the Republican Party is ... fundamentally a coalition that is forged by president Reagan and there is a lot of room there for someone who has been a principled Reaganite conservative for his career..."

    Van Lohuizen: "The Schwarzenegger model is: don't have a primary." The frontrunner question is kind of a really neat question because between now and January 15th and we can ask it 400 times and get a hundred different answer. Who cares?

    McKinnon: "The polls speak for themselves, and the polls say that Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner."

    Galen: "The difference between governor or running for mayor even of New York and running for president is enormous because the pressures, the spotlight, parsing every sentence... is very often just overwhelming to candidates who haven't been in there before."

    First quarter 2007 FEC report, a top tier presidential candidate has raised..

    Vogel: "...at least $30 million." Those "who have filed before the end of the year are going to have a year end report, which is going to put more pressure on them." How many? "There are two people who will raise that..."

    Galen: "There is an unlimited amount of money...."

    Kensinger: "I'm making a case that money per se, that early money, in particular, the bar is higher than every before and that [money isn't worth as much.]"

    Vogel: "These two candidates [McCain and Romney] are about to go nuclear."

    Van Lohuizen: "If $30 million is the number, Hillary Clinton has already raised it. I really don't think that the kinds of numbers are going to do in 2008 what the Bush campaign did with these numbers in 2000. I think [the minimum amount that needs to be raised] is less than you think. If organization was all that mattered and feet on the ground were all that mattered, Richard Gephardt would be president."

    Kensinger: "If you win Iowa, you're going to get all the money you need."

    McKinnon: "In many ways, it's not as important because you can raise it quicker and can raise it more easily. Things can happen overnight."

    Calendar frontloading? Does the winner of Iowa win everything?

    McKinnon: "I don't think so. I think there is an unusual constellation of candidates and primaries this particular year. You could have someone pop in Iowa, someone else pop in New Hampshire and someone else pop in South Carolina." He said he thinks candidates could pick their state and still stay in the game.

    Galen: "It is the expectation, like listening to the quarterly earnings report. It's the same thing with candidates."

    Van Lohuizen: "There was 18 days between NH and SC and in the first ten we were behind. There was recovery time. [This cycle,] there is no recovery time. So I really think it does matter and it does elevate the priority of Iowa."

    Kensinger: "Brownback.. if he runs, he runs to win in Iowa. He;s the only candidate who's a member of the FFA. If we ran in Iowa, we run to win."

    Vogel: "You have Sen. McCain in this race who won some of these places last time. Gov. Romney has ... this burden of expectations as well."

    Opting out? Can you be a viable nominee without opting out?

    Vogel "in the primary, no."

    Kensinger disagreed.

    Galen: "It is the second and third tier candidates who will avail themselves of the matching funds, because that's how they will stay in the race."

    The Media

    Galen: "It is three dimensional chance. It's not just the linear game between the Republican candidates, it's also who's up, who's down among the Democrats."

    McKinnon: "The press will not sit on a static story. The press will find ways to try to continue to make the race interesting, dynamic, compelling."

    Kensinger; "Used to be that you didn't have any news to fill the time, now you don't have enough news for all the time."

    Van Lohuizen: "We can now carry two primaries and two conservations on at the same time."

    Galen: "It's very expensive to cover these campaigns. If you have a campaign that ain't in the top tier, you're not going to get any coverage."

    Religion?

    Van Lohuizen: "There are two levels to the answer. One level is the inside baseball between now and, call it August. The people in this room are going to hear questions about the Mormon thing until its ridiculous or its embarassing. I think the question will wear itself out. There is no answer because the question is a weapon and you keep repeating the question until people...don;t want to hear it anymore. At the voter level, the polling on it has been just really mixed. Some people say it;'s a problem to more than 40%, other people say 20%."

    Kensinger: "Campaigns are about voters. To the extent that voters think it matters, and a disproportionate share of people who are...active in the nominating process are religious. ... The country will be ready for [a Mormon president] at some point. i think the big challenge right now for LDS candidates is that so many of their voters are under 35."

    McKinnon: "I have to think of the whole Mormon issue as way overstated and I think that in this country today, voters are much more thoughtful and tolerant."

    Is Giuliani Viable Given that He's Not A Social Conservative?

    Galen: "I think a candidate can get beyond that."

    Kensinger: "It's possible."

    McKinnon: "Anything is possible."

    Van Lohuizen: "The answer is yes on the possible because the presidential elections are the one campaign where you get to represent the multidimensional candidates. I think, probable, no."

    Vogel: "I think it's possible but it is going to have to be a different crop of delegates than were sitting in the platform committee last time."

    Democrats they most want to or least want to face?

    Galen: "If Newt were the Republican nominee, I'd want Hillary, just for the sport of it."

    Kensinger: "Jim Traficant."

    Van Lohuizen: "Al Gore 1.0"

    McKinnon: "The problem for her is going to be is that the one thing about presidential elections is that they are reflection of the previous administration or administrations...given the envirionment, are people going to want another President Bush or President Clinton?"

    Running away from Bush?

    Kensinger: "Enormous respect. To throw that coalition away would be an enormous mistake."

    Van Lohuizen: "Within the Republican primary electorate, the President is enormously poopular."

    Galen: "A White House that is aggressively on message is an unstoppable force."

    Other comments:

    Vogel, on Frist's departure: "We had discussed with him that Thanksgiving was a critical decision point. I really didn't know until Monday morning how that decision was going to go. We had breakfast Monday morning, and ... at the end of the day, he made a gut decision and said I've thought about it and said it's not the time."

    McKinnon, on McCain's preparing to run: "I think he's 99 percent there. The airplane is on the tarmac, gassed up and is ready to go."

    Kensinger: "There's a final round of consultation with friends and family, and prayer to be done, and I think he'll announce a final decision shortly."

    Galen: "There is zero downside no matter what he decides to do. Newt has always been inclusive to the point that it hurt him when he was Speaker.... Newt has the advantage of being able to be a presidential candidate until he decides he's not a presidential candidate." Newt "wants to be able to frame the debate over the presidential nominating process."

    On '06 Lessons

    Van Lohuizen: "If you look at voting for Bush and voting for Republicans in '04 and '06, the correlation was the same. We really have to look beyond what happened to the President as the result of the War on Iraq and look at what happened to the Republican brand. There are three legs to the stool... social conservatism, fiscal conservatism and national defense." More: "There is nothing in any of the post-election surveys...that show the social conservatism part of the brand is changing...:" But "we have to really rethink our branding."

    McKinnon: "There was a conventional mythology that Democrats increased their margins substantially in this election, and that wasn't true. The real phenominon was that independents went in droves to vote for Democrats." On issues where the GOP "has great equity," they "abandoned their principles and took half measures." That's an argument, he says, for a McCain presidency.

    Kensinger: "Do what you said you would do. If you're elected for a set of principles, stick to those principles."

    Galen: "Nobody is going to spend a great deal of time campaigning as being the person that understands how Washington works better."

    Posted 11.30.06 01:13 PM | Comments (1)

    Governor Vilsack Announces

    Excerpts below from IA Gov. Tom Vilsack's presidential announcement, given this morning at Iowa Wesleyan College.

    Presidential problems:

  • "We have a president whose first reflex is to divide and conquer... who preys on insecurities and fears for partisan gain... who has tried to rob us of the very asset that has made the United States the greatest country on earth: Our sense of community, optimism, and can-do spirit."
  • On homeland security:

  • "We are less safe and less secure than we were 6 years ago. Our country needs bold leadership guided by the right values and the right experience."

  • A confident underdog:

  • "I have always been the underdog and long shot. And I have always been inspired by stories of ordinary people who struggled, but ultimately succeeded."

  • Family values:

  • I began life in an orphanage in the arms of a stranger. I was adopted into a loving but troubled home. During my early years, my mother battled alcohol and prescription drug addiction. My parents separated. I watched as my father balanced being a single parent while trying to keep his business alive. We struggled and adapted to a declining standard of living. I know what it is to feel alone and forgotten... as if you do not belong... My parents got back together... they taught me never to give up on people, family or community."

  • Prized accomplishments in Iowa:

  • "In the past eight years, Iowa successfully changed farm fields into energy fields. We changed the traditional idea of agriculture and became the national leader in renewable fuel and energy production. As a state, we became more economically, enviornmentlaly and energy secure. If you drive around Iowa today, you will see a changing landscape marked by new ethanol and biofuel production plants and wind farms."

  • Keeping the faith:

  • "Let us fight for an education system that helps every child become as inquisitive and creative as God intended them to be. If we are to compete in a tough, global economy, Americans must remain the most innovative people on earth."
  • Posted 11.30.06 12:09 PM | Comments (0)

    Interlude: Toner On Election Administration

    Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

    FEC chairman Michael Toner: "The state of election administration in this country has been an embarassment."

    More resources at the state level and more "professionalization" of election professionals.

    Posted 11.30.06 10:42 AM | Comments (0)

    6th Year Itch Or War Election?

    Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

    A panel with DCCC IE director John Lapp, FEC chairman Michael Toner, Donna Brazile, Fred Barnes and Slate's John Dickerson on the 2006 midterms. Larry J. Sabato is your moderator.


    Lapp: "It wasn't until the end of 2005 and into 2006 that we had a serious shot [at taking the House].

    Toner: "One of the unwritten stories of this year is that Republicans closed well and they won't most of the close races. Of the races decided by 4 percentage points or close, Republicans won [most of them.] It could have been worse for Republicans."

    Toner noted that the Democratic party committees raised as much this year (all in hard money) than they did in '02, when they could still accept soft money. Also: Toner noted a sudden upsurge in challenger fundraising.

    Brazile: "We didn't give [Republicans] disunity. [Democrats] were pretty unified."

    Barnes: "This was a war election [not a sixth year itch election.] Imagine if the Iraq War wasn't going on. Would Democrats have won the Senate? I don't think so." More Barnes: "When you look back at history and you see presidents or parties running when there is no victory in site... like...say 1862 when Lincoln was president and Republicans lost seats...in 1952, Harry Truman would have run for re-election absent the Korean War which lowered his presdiential approval rating down to the 20s...1968...absent the war in Vietnam, would LBJ have backed out? Would Democrats have lost? Of course not."

    Sabato: "The 1950 midterm election... Republicans picked up 29 House seats and 6 Senate seats. And they say history doesn't repeat itself."

    Lapp: "The overall theme of the election was, it's competence and corruption, stupid."


    Dickerson: "The president lost his gut connection [with the American people] on the war and the economy in 2005 and never got it back. If you at all the polling that took place before and after the election, Iraq was through the roof."

    Toner: "In the micro sense, in some of these key races, [corruption] was the decisive factor."

    Sabato asks: "What about immigration?"

    Lapp mentions J.D. Hayworth's defeat in AZ 05. :"Here's a guy who thought he could break the cycle by running on the immigration issue."

    Brazile: "Immigration was ranked number 8 and it was tied with Medicare and Social Security and health care"

    Barnes: "If Republicans had passed a comprehensive immigration reform over the yip-yaps of J.D. Hayworth and Tom Tancredo.... I think it would have marginally helped Republicans." He notes that Republicans took 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.

    Sabato: New trends for 2008?

    Toner: "PACs spent more than one billion dollars in this cycle and they were one of the few entities who did not get increased limits in the McCain Feingold law." Now "you have corporate PACs taking their own money and going on the air and running their own ads." More Toner: "Candidates raised about 30% percent more in the 2006 cycle than they did in the prior cycle."

    Everyone else pretty much said "YouTube, Macaca and the Internet."

    Brazile: "This was a banner year for women candidates and minority seats." There are 9 women governors, 16 women senators and 71 women members of the House.

    Posted 11.30.06 09:36 AM | Comments (0)

    Carville Predicts A Gore Run

    Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.


    Editor's Note: this writer will not attempt to craft a narrative from Mr. Carville's stream of consciousness.

    Breezing through his standard roster of jokes (Mary Matalin and estrogen, Howard Dean, Dan Quayle), James Carville, one of politics' most successful consultants and one of Bill Clinton's best friends, pronounced the 2006 election "pretty predictable."

    But, he said, "The most disturbing thing to me as a Democrat was that this was the third election cycle in a row that Republicans have closed better than us. Wherever we were on Friday before, we were not as good on Election Day."

    The "most positive thing," he said: "the thing that reaches out and slaps you across the face is 18-t0-30s. I think we won them about 61 to 39. Way Way better than any other age group. If you're a political party, you'd rather have [that age group] because they tend to be around longer."

    "There is no clear Republican frontrunner," which Carville calls an historical anomaly. Not since 1940 has the Republican Party not annointed its standardbearer years in advance. Republicans, Carville said, aren't used to divisive, competitive primaries.

    Another historical anomaly: "We're going to have five larger-than-life candidates running for President. McCain, Giuliani, Hillary Clinton, Obama and Al Gore. And you want to make it interesting, you might have Newt Gingrich in it."

    The rest of the fields: "It's hard to see them as president."

    "Giuliani and McCain are larger than life people. They're not the most temperate men I know. Maybe we'll have a little fisticuffs. In the long, freezing cold, irritating saga of the campaign, we know many delicious things are going to happen."

    On Hillary Clinton's potential campaign: "I don't think I'm going to work on it, but I'll be helpful where I can."

    Posted 11.30.06 09:12 AM | Comments (2)

    Carville's Truce?

    Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

    James Carville isn't stepping back from his full-frontal criticism of Howard Dean. But this morning, speaking to benefactors of the UVA's Center for Politics, he proposed a truce, of sorts. He acknowledged that Dean's ouster as chair wasn't likely.

    But if the Democratic Party convenes a blue ribbon panel to figure out why Republicans close elections better than Democrats, "I'd be satisfied," Carville said.

    He noted that Dems, from '02 through '06, seemed to lose ground the last weekend before the elections. He accused the DNC of leaving $6 million "on the table" and called it "inexcusable."

    Here's our assessment of the Carville claims.

    Posted 11.30.06 09:04 AM | Comments (2)

    Hotline After Dark -- Hillary Scared Of Obama?

    Lots of talk last night on Pres. Bush not meeting with Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki:

    NBC's K. O'Donnell, on the non-meeting: "There was no photo opportunity, no dinner, no nothing" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/29).

    CNN's Malveaux: "It was clear the president was not consulted, and left the impression of a brush-off. The White House is trying to downplay the no-show, insisting it wasn't, pointing out, Mr. Bush and Maliki's face-to-face talks are still planned for tomorrow" ("AC 360," 11/29).

    FNC's Baier: "The change of plans appeared to surprise White House officials, who tried to play down its significance" ("Special Report," 11/29).

    FNC's Smith, on Bush: "It does sound like he's has been stiffed" ("On the Record," 11/29).

    Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "It was a huge embarrassment. It's the last thing you want. ... To have this happen at a time when confidence in the president's handling of the war is plummeting, and events on the ground are spiraling down into crisis, too, I think this is a very bad blow for the president" ("AC 360," CNN, 11/29).

    FNC SAYS HRC MAY NOT RUN

    FNC's Cameron: "The chairman of Iowa's Democratic party told Fox News that Mrs. Clinton has not been adequately laying the groundwork for her campaign and that first in the nation caucus goers are being told she may not run because of growing buzz over Illinois Freshman Senator Barack Obama's expected candidacy."

    Interim IA Dem Chair Rob Tully: "She's been quiet and, you know, there's a question that we all hear is that she may not get in this if Barack Obama gets in. I have never seen a reaction other than Bill Clinton in terms of the excitement that people have to meet Barack Obama. Some people just wanted to touch him" ("Special Report," 11/29).

    KERRY'S DOG DAYS

    "LKL" last night featured Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and bounty hunter Duane "Dog" Chapman (in separate interviews):

    Kerry, asked if Bush was snubbed by Maliki: "Well, it's hard to interpret. But I think what's more important is really what happens tomorrow and what happens in the next days."

    Asked if he calls Iraq a civil war: "Yes. And I have for some time. It is a civil war."

    On coming in last in the Quinnipiac poll: "I would have voted myself last when it was taken."

    On WH '08: "I have said again and again, that decision is down the road" (CNN, 11/29).

    During the Chapman segment, Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) appeared to discuss why he sent Sec/State Condoleezza Rice a letter asking her to deny Dog's extradition to Mexico.

    Tancredo: "I believe that we should never have responded to it. I mean, it was amazing to me, when I first saw this whole thing and first read about it, that we were responding to Mexico's request so aggressively, so willingly, so quickly. I mean, especially it was a request to bring back somebody, to extradite somebody from the United States for a crime that was really a misdemeanor, which is not something we would usually do. ... You have to say to yourself, why would the United States, the Department of State, spend the time, energy and effort getting involved with this thing?"

    More Tancredo: "The fact that there are hundreds of thousands of people around this country who are concerned about his welfare and concerned about how the State Department handles this can do nothing but help. But I want to make sure that Mexico understands that I am not being critical of them at this particular juncture" ("LKL," CNN, 11/29).[EMILY GOODIN]

    Posted 11.30.06 07:15 AM | Comments (0)

    TODAY: The American Democracy Conference

    Once again, The Hotline has partnered with the Univ. of VA's Center of Politics to present our 9th annual American Democracy Conference. It's a unique year-end event in that it doesn't just look back on the year that was but looks ahead to the election that will be.

    This year's ADC will feature a keynote address by James Carville, in addition to top Republican and Democratic panelists representing many of the oft-mentioned contenders for each party's WH '08 nod.

    The event is free and open to the public with advance registration, and it will be held from 9am-1:15 at the Ronald Reagan Building and Int'l Trade Center (1300 Penn. Ave. NW; WDC) on Thursday, 11/30.

    The Agenda, after the jump.

    The Agenda
    * 9:00am - 9:45am Welcoming Remarks and Keynote Address
    Keynote by James Carville

    * 9:45am - 10:45am Panel I: Midterm Election Recap
    Moderator: UVA's Larry Sabato
    Panelists:
    Fred Barnes - Executive Editor, The Weekly Standard
    Donna Brazile - Brazile and Associations LLC
    John Dickerson - Chief Political Correspondent, Slate
    John Lapp - exec. dir., DCCC
    Michael Toner - Chair, FEC

    * 10:45am - 11:00am Break

    * 11:00am - 12:00pm Panel II: The 2008 Republicans
    Moderator: Chuck Todd -- The Hotline
    Panelists:
    Mark McKinnon - media consultant (McCain)
    Jan van Lohuizen - pollster (Romney)
    Alex Vogel - political advisor (Frist)
    Rich Galen - political strategist; ex-Gingrich aide

    * 12:00pm - 12:15pm Break

    * 12:15pm - 1:15pm Panel III: The 2008 Democrats
    Moderator: John Mercurio -- The Hotline
    Panelists:
    Nick Baldick - strategist (Edwards)
    Anita Dunn - media consultant (Bayh)
    Steve Murphy - media consultant (Richardson)
    Jessica Vanden Berg -- strategist (Clark)
    Jim Jordan - political strategist (unaffiliated)

    * 1:15pm Conference Closing Remarks

    Posted 11.30.06 04:00 AM | Comments (1)

    November 29, 2006

    On The Trail: Hillary's Primary Problem

    As the months preceding New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's eventual presidential announcement dwindle to weeks, it's worth exploring just how difficult her path to the Democratic nomination really is. It's tricky to write about her these days, because it seems that everything's been said -- just not everyone has said it. But let's attempt a fresher look.

    As the likelihood of a Clinton campaign becomes a reality, more reasons turn up that suggest why she could lose the nomination.

    Too many of us have awarded Clinton the '08 nod too soon and too easily. The conventional-wisdom crowd is easily impressed by two things about her candidacy: money and her last name. There's also a dirty little secret that those of us in the media are leery to admit: She's good for business (particularly expense reports).

    Take the money and surname drama and add a dash of media anticipation, and you get the simplest explanation of the perceived Clinton juggernaut.

    There's one flaw in all of this, though, and that is the electorate. As the likelihood of a Clinton campaign becomes a reality, more reasons turn up that suggest why she could lose the nomination. In fact, the primary may be harder for her than the general election. A bad three-week period at the wrong time in the wrong state could doom a bid, particularly with this front-loaded primary calendar. While the same thing can happen in a general, the same ridiculous scoring of expectations doesn't apply to general elections the way it does in primary battles. [CHUCK TODD]

    Continue Reading On The Trail

    Posted 11.29.06 03:37 PM | Comments (5)

    Today on Hotline TV: Round Two

    hotline-tv.jpg

    Remember all those great races in '03? Chandler vs. Fletcher in KY Gov, Jindal vs. Blanco in LA Gov? Well, get ready for 2007, the year of the rematch. And we have some great races in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, too!

    Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

    Posted 11.29.06 03:09 PM | Comments (0)

    Reid's Chief Of Staff Departs For ONE Campaign

    Susan McCue, chief of staff for incoming majority leader Harry Reid, will leave to become the CEO of the the ONE campaign, an AIDS relief and anti-poverty group.

    ONE features ordinary Americans and luminaries who've banded together to "make poverty history" and fight AIDS. The group boasts 2.4 million members and hosted 600 activist house parties during the midterms.

    Yes, it's the Bono thingie.

    ONE gets its name from getting ONE percent of Americans to increase by ONE percent the "ONE percent of the federal budget is currently marked for fighting AIDS and poverty around the world."

    Republicans like Jack Oliver and Mark McKinnon, along with Democrats like Mike McCurry (and basically, all of Hollywood) count themselves as members.

    From the ONE release:

    “Susan has made getting results her calling card on Capitol Hill and now she’ll bring that experience to building a historic and bipartisan campaign,” said ONE Board Member and Republican strategist Jack Oliver. “The ONE Campaign, and the fight against global AIDS and extreme poverty, has gained an incredible leader and advocate."

    Posted 11.29.06 02:38 PM | Comments (11)

    Get Clinton

    Noted: the web team behind Stop Her Now is also built Sen. John McCain's exploratory committee site.

    Posted 11.29.06 02:20 PM | Comments (0)

    The Daily Troika: Romney Beefs Up

    troi.GIF As we clumsily and incompletely hinted at yesterday, Gov. Mitt Romney is beefing up his campaign policy team, announcing today that R. Glenn Hubbard of Columbia and Greg Mankiw of Harvard will advise him on economics. Both men are, of course, former chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Bush. The other interesting new name to political junkies will be Cesar Conda, a former domestic policy aide to Vice President Cheney who heretofore was a committed supporter of Sen. George Allen. Conda will serve as a senior policy adviser.

    Romney and company head to Miami, FL today to prepare for his exit from the Republican Governors Association conference. His contingent will be joined there by a large number of John McCain's senior-most advisers, including John Weaver, McCain's political guru. Several McCain friendly governors will be in Romney's audience.

    Squibs:


  • Rudy Giuliani (R) backers "say he's finally picking up the pace" to announce, "likely by summer" (USNews.com).


  • Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) said of his '88 plagiarism: "Twenty years ago, I made a mistake. Twenty years ago, I learned a whole hell of a lot getting up off my knees" (Providence Journal).


  • In NH, Newt Gingrich said the Bush admin needs to admit that the war in Iraq is a "failure" (Boston Globe).


  • Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) is scheduled to visit OH 12/15 and has "tentatively penciled" in a trip to IA in late 1/07 (Omaha World-Herald).


  • Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) said: "I sort of have a unique position because I have experience, but I'm sort of a fresh face" (New York Observer).


    Posted 11.29.06 01:47 PM | Comments (0)

    Frist: Why He Said No

    To the politically engaged public, Bill Frist was President Bush’s hand-picked majority leader who had to placate 54 other egos. To the press, he was derided, often cast as close to incompetent. To his staff, he was the guy who dropped everything in the middle of a heated immigration debate to tend to an ill staffer. The disjuncture between these views is striking.

    The Wall Street Journal’s David Rogers noted that Frist, in an interview last night, “seemed to acknowledge he had lost some of his own identity.” Frist sees himself as a guy who helps others. From his statement today: “My dad in his later years wanted to impart some wisdom to his grandchildren and great grandchildren he would never meet. One thing he wrote that has stuck with me- in fact been a clarion call to me -- was there is so much good to do in the world and so many ways to do it. Politics is a noble occupation. Medicine is a noble profession. Service to others underlies both.” Health care was a true passion, one that he could never find enough time for as Majority Leader.

    It’s ironic: lured by the illusion of being in control, he found he could not shape legislation to the degree he had hoped, according to one current aide and one outside adviser. “He wasn’t able to pursue the ideas that excited him,” a current senior staffer said.

    Around 11:00 am, today, Frist held a conference call with his staff. He told them that he was most proud of his accomplishments in health care. Topping that list, Frist said, was his work to add billions to fund HIV/AIDS treatment in Africa.

    After 9/11, Congress ceded policy making, especially for everything related to defense and national security, to the White House. Republicans allowed the White House to dictate the terms of the domestic policy agenda as well. Occasionally, as with Pres. Bush’s push for a Medicare prescription drug benefit, The White House’s agenda coincided with Frist’s. Often, as when the White House decided to spend the first part of 2005 on Social Security reform, they did not. But Frist does not think his fidelity to the president was a mistake.

    First does not suffer from a lack of staff loyalty; they are totally devoted to the guy. In Memphis last Spring, as Frist prepared for his home-state straw poll, they distributed (and proudly wore) stickers that said “Frist Is My Leader,” vaguely unaware of the Orwellian undertones. The metrics his political advisers set for him in 2006 suggest that they did not fully appreciate the power of a negative public image. If Frist could win the straw poll, have a fairly bump-free year in the Congress and confirm conservative judges, and finally, if Republicans kept control of the Senate, Frist’s political team believed that he’d be judged a top-tier presidential candidate. [MARC AMBINDER}

    It proved mildly frustrating when the negative press clips kept coming, when colleagues anonymously carped to reporters about his leadership style, when pundits kept snorting at his presidential prospects. The press didn’t get Frist, they believed. But no matter: they would bypass the filter. Frist’s team built a formidable e-mail list of donors and contacts and made sure his Volunteer PAC website was fully featured and interactive. The thinking was that because there was a void on the right side of the Republican presidential ledger, Frist would end 2006 on a high note (having retained the Senate), would vault into 2007 raising tons of money, and would announce his candidacy by pledging to transform the American health care system. Exogenous events aside, the Frist intervention didn’t work. Their surgical incisions to repair parts of his image could not keep up with the perception that he was not, as majority leader, in the job best suited to his talents.

    It was never clear whether he was comfortable actually being a social conservative. It was always clear – witness his body language during the Gang of 14 debate – that he believed there were other ways to serve humanity than sparring with Harry Reid and John McCain. He was a very nice guy in a job where being nice gets you next to nothing.

    Frist may well play a role in the 2008 race. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) plans to base his campaign on a market-based national health care solution. Frist will watch the debate closely.

    More, from Frist: “We are ready to return to Nashville and private life. We will seek the best opportunity to serve mankind. We will stay actively involved in formulating innovative solutions to the seemingly insurmountable problems that face Americans every day -- high cost of health care, energy dependence, the threat of radical Islam. I may return to what I’ve done for most of my adult life: heal through medicine (the way I saw my dad serve since I was a little boy riding around with him, his black doctor’s bag tucked between us, as he’d travel the neighborhood making house calls). I, of course, will immediately resume my regular medical mission trips as a doctor around the world to serve those in poverty, in famine, and in civil war. That is where my centeredness is fueled.”

    Posted 11.29.06 01:10 PM | Comments (1)

    Yes, An Obama Candidacy Is For Real

    Political Washington is fast waking up to the possibility that Sen. Barack Obama's presidential explorations are, in fact, serious.

    The oft-cited reasons why people "know" he's not running include: obviously, he wants to be the Alpha Dog in the Democratic Party, not president. Or: his wife Michelle is dead set against a presidential run. Or: Robert Gibbs, Obama's communications director, has somehow orchestrated a public relations campaign to sell his boss's books.

    Ignore all of that.

    Without getting into the man's skull, a sober assessment of the available evidence suggests that Obama is seriously debating whether to enter the race.

    Here's what we know:

    ## Several of Obama's senior advisers have spent the past few weeks sketching out what an Obama campaign would look like, who it might employ, how it might differ from conventional campaigns, and where it might go. Those plans, according to Democrats close to Obama, have not been operationalized.

    ## Obama's advisers have reached out to several major professional fundraisers, including DSCC finance director Julianna Smoot, and have brainstormed about other talent they might hire.

    ## But "no person in any orbit of Barack Obama has been asked to do any specific or non specific job in a future political endeavor" says Robert Gibbs, his communications director. Some Democrats are circulating the rumor that strategist David Plouffe is ready to move to Chicago to be the campaign manager. Not true, says Plouffe. In fact, he's soon headed for a vacation.

    ## Some folks on the outer periphery of Obama's universe are thinking about the Chicago apartment hunt.

    ## Since the election, Obama has made a circuit through official Democratic provinces, calling labor leaders, aides to other presidential candidates, donors and lawmakers. He asks earnest questions about the mechanics of a run. He asks questions about how to protect his family with the brutal pace of a campaign. Obama doesn't make an "ask" at these meetings, according to several participants. He does not request a formal or informal committment from his interlocutors.

    ## He'll make his first, post-election stop in New Hampshire on Dec. 10, when he will l be the NH Dems' "special guest" for the party's "2006 Election Celebration" in Manchester.

    Here's what we don't know: Is Obama's wife Michelle fully on board? She has expressed to friends her fears about her husband's safety. At the same time, it's impossible to imagine that Barack Obama would be testing the waters as deeply as he is without Michelle Obama's consent. [MARC AMBINDER]

    Posted 11.29.06 12:03 PM | Comments (3)

    Breaking: Frist Won't Run

    Sources close to outgoing Maj. Leader Bill Frist tell the Hotline that Frist has decided not to run for President.

    He will make a formal announcement this afternoon, the sources said.

    Frist made the decision in recent days after consulting family, friends and advisers.

    Posted 11.29.06 10:22 AM | Comments (3)

    GOP Gets A Big Win

    We reported yesterday that, thanks to a recount, Dems won control of the PA State House.

    Today, some good news for the GOP: After a recount in Montana's Yellowstone County, State Rep. candidate Kratyon Kerns (R) eeked out a 3-vote win over Dem Emelie Eaton (D), giving the GOP a 50-49 majority, with one member hailing from the Constitution Party. A recount in Jefferson County, where GOPer Scott Mendenhall (R) leads Dem Sheila Hogan (D) by 24 votes, is pending.

    MT GOP Exec. Dir. Chuck Denowh told the Great Falls Tribune the shift was "huge news. If you look across the nation, there's only a couple of states where Republicans gained a house of the legislature." Actually, the GOP's win in Montana makes it the only state in which the party won back control. Democrats have picked up ten chambers around the country.

    The GOP came close in the State Senate, picking up two seats to force the chamber into a 25-25 tie though, thanks to a quirk in state law, the governor's party -- Dems -- retain control in a tie. Adding injury to insult, GOP State Sen. Sam Kitzenberg changed party affiliation after the election, giving Dems a 26-24 majority.

    Democrats now control both legislative chambers in 24 states while the GOP holds both gavels in 15 states. 10 are split, and Nebraska's unicameral state senate is non-partisan. [REID WILSON]

    Posted 11.29.06 09:18 AM | Comments (3)

    Hotline After Dark: Almost There, WH Press Corps...

    Lots of talk on Iraq last night, especially about Pres. Bush's NATO speech and his appearance at the Ammon summit:

    CNN's Malveaux: "Despite the deteriorating conditions on the ground in Iraq, President Bush refused to call the growing chaos and carnage between warring factions there civil war" ("AC 360," 11/28).

    FNC's Baier: "Bush addressed the immense pressure at home and abroad to change course in Iraq. On the eve of a trip
    to Jordan ... the president once again drew a line in the sand" ("Special Report," 11/28).

    DOWN BUT NOT OUT

    There was also talk of Rep. Alcee Hastings not getting the Intel Cmte chairmanship:

    FNC's Garrett: "The Congressional Black Caucus, which strongly supported Hastings, raised no objections. This is in keeping with private assurances that Pelosi had received from the caucus that it would give her wide latitude in dealing with this matter" ("Special Report," 11/28).

    CNN's Koppel: "Now perhaps surprisingly, the congressional Black Caucus of which Hastings is a member, which has been among his biggest supporters and wrote a letter to Pelosi on his behalf did not criticize Pelosi's decision. Instead, its chairman said that basically Hastings would have made an outstanding intelligence chairman and we still hope he will at some point in the future" ("Situation Room," 11/28).

    Hill's Stoddard: "There must be some other plan that Nancy Pelosi has concocted with the Black Caucus about some other position for Alcee Hastings. He had the seniority in this position. Harman jumped over him and her time
    was up" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/28).

    WE LOVE '08

    And here's a sampling of some last night's WH '08 talk:

    GOP strategist Mike Murphy, on who he'd rather run against: "I probably would rather run against Hillary, because she is old news and Barack is new news" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/28).

    Ex-Pres. Carter, on Gore: "I encouraged him so much in 2004 to run that he finally said, 'Mr. President, please do not bother me about this any more. My family and I have decided I'm not going to run.' He almost got angry with me. But I don't have that much doubt, first of all, that Al Gore was elected president by votes in Florida and throughout the nation in the year 2000. And I think, had he run in the year 2004 he would have won. And if I had to choose now a candidate out of all the ones that exist, at this point, at least, Al Gore would still be my preference" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/28).

    MSNBC's Olbermann, on Gingrich's NH speech: "If you're going to destroy freedom of speech, bub, you've already lost all the cities" ("Countdown," 11/28).

    Newsweek's Alter: "Gingrich is a man of ideas. Some of the ideas are dopey and dangerous. Maybe many of the ideas are dopey and dangerous. A few of them are good. He likes to talk ideas. And I don't think that he was playing the angles here of a presidential run" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 11/28).

    Washington Post's Dionne, on Biden's Iraq plan: "Senator Biden's plan is smart and thoughtful and it probably wouldn't work right now" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 11/28). [EMILY GOODIN]


    Posted 11.29.06 08:33 AM | Comments (0)

    November 28, 2006

    "Sorry Haters, God is Not Finished With Me Yet."

    After meeting with House Speaker-elect Pelosi this afternoon, Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla., issued a statement confirming he will not serve as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

    "I have been informed by the speaker-elect that I will not serve as the chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence in the 110th Congress," he said. "I am obviously disappointed with this decision." Hastings won election to Congress in 1992, after having been impeached and removed from office as a federal judge. He concluded his statement by saying, "Sorry, haters, God is not finished with me yet."

    Here's Pelosi's statement:

    "Congressman Alcee Hastings and I have had extensive consultations, and today I advised him that I would select someone else as Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Alcee Hastings has always placed national security as his highest priority. He has served our country well, and I have full confidence that he will continue to do so."


    Posted 11.28.06 03:51 PM | Comments (0)

    Today on Hotline TV: Sitting In Our Parents' Basements

    The blogosphere grows more powerful and more brazen. What effect will they have on the 2008 presidential primaries? The left and the right take very different approaches.

    hotline-tv.jpg


    Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

    Posted 11.28.06 03:45 PM | Comments (0)

    Dems Pick Up PA State House

    It seems good news for Democrats just keeps coming. Going into the election, the party held 94 seats out of 203 in the Pennsylvania State House. The party picked up enough seats to earn a 101-100 lead after most ballots were counted, though two seats – both previously controlled by Republicans – were close enough to require recounts.

    Republican Duane Milne kept a narrow 144-vote lead after provisional, overseas and absentee ballots were all cast, creating a 101-101 tie and putting control of the chamber in the hands of the 156th House District. In that race, Republican Shannon Royer led his Democratic opponent, Barbara Smith, by just 19 votes (out of close to 30K cast) going into today’s final counts.

    After all the ballots were tallied, Smith reversed the gap and emerged with a 23-vote victory, handing control of the State House to Democrats in a chamber few thought they had a chance of picking off.

    While a recount is almost certain, if Smith’s lead holds, Democrats will have won 11 state legislative chambers nationwide in ’06.

    The 320-seat Democratic pickup may not be a historical high – the party out of power in the White House picks up an average of 324 seats in midterms, and the GOP won more than 500 seats from Democrats in ’94 – Democrats chose their spots strategically. The party won seats in every region of the country, including the South, stopping a decade-long slide in the region. [REID WILSON]

    Posted 11.28.06 03:19 PM | Comments (0)

    Has Arnold Lost Hollywood?

    At the end of every "Two and a Half Men," the "Chuck Lorre Production" company includes a frame of text with some message from the producer. Last night, through the power of TiVO, one of us decided to pause and read it. In a word, um, wow.

    Here's the full message:

    "I'm relieved that he's reached across the aisle to fight global warming. I'm delighted that he's worked to increase the minimum wage, reduce the cost of pharmaceutical drugs, improve the infrastructure, and bring accountability to the school system. My problem, and let me state for the record that it's my problem, not his, is simply this: Whenever I hear the governor of California speak I find myself nervously looking around for a train that will take me to Poland."

    This web site has archived all of these post-show messages.

    Posted 11.28.06 01:39 PM | Comments (0)

    CAP's Agenda For Democrats

    It is very tempting to read the Center for American Progress's 100 Day Agenda, which pres. John Podesta unveiled this a.m., as a blueprint for what Sen. Hillary Clinton would have Democrats do if she were in charge.

    CAP, of course, is filled with Clinton veterans, some of whom will decamp to Clinton's expected presidential campaign next year. (One exception: senior CAPper Jennifer Palmieri is a pledged member of Sen. John Edwards' presidential team.)

    Presidential speculation aside, CAP wants to cement its status as the policy shop for Democrats. Here's their preferred congressional agenda through August:

    -- Level the playing field between credit card companies and consumers
    -- Create a Universal 401(k) to promote ownership, savings, and bipartisanship
    -- Create a new Wellness Trust
    -- Enact comprehensive immigration reform
    -- Ensure that surveillance of terrorists is effective and on a sound legal footing
    -- Adopt a national target to avoid dangerous climate change
    -- Require 25 percent of electricity production from renewable sources by 2025 and establish a new cross-cutting research division at the Department of Energy


    Posted 11.28.06 12:23 PM | Comments (0)

    The Daily Troika: Names Galore

    troi.GIF Now that the open secret of Warren Tompkins' joining Team Romney has been officially confirmed by the Massachusetts Governor's Commonwealth PAC. Who's next? A Romney aide says to expect a few major policy advisers to reveal themselves today.

    Sen. John McCain today announced the endorsement of South Carolina AG commissioner Hugh Weathers. Writes Weathers, in a statement: "John McCain appeals to farmers and all South Carolinians because of his character, integrity and unique qualifications for the office. He’s a true American hero, and he would bring to our nation the kind of conservative, inspirational leadership in a league with Ronald Reagan.” McCain will probably announce his full candidacy at the beginning of the second week of January.

    News about Lou Susman, a major Democratic fundraiser, helping Gov. Tom Vilsack is old hat to On Call readers. Check out Mr. Susman's characterization of his role in The Des Moines Register.

    Speaking of Vilsack, here's the schedule for his formal launch. Tomorrow evening, he attends a potluck dinner in Mt. Pleasant, where he served as mayor. On Thursday, he delivers his "announcement address" at the Iowa Wesleyan College Howe Center in Mt. Pleasant. He's in Concord, NH that night, speaking at a Merrimack Co. Dem dinner. On Friday, he gives a speech at the New Hampshire Technical Institute's Community College. A few campaign stops later, he flies to Pittsburgh, PA, where he was born. He takes reporters on a walking tour of his old neighborhood, has coffee at a local Joe joint, grabs a slice at Mineo's Pizza, and decamps for Des Moines for a major fundraiser. He's in Nevada and South Carolina on the 3rd and 4th.


    Posted 11.28.06 11:08 AM | Comments (0)

    HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

    Hotline_PN_logo-sm.gif Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

    Sayfie's Review -- Democrats renew drive for paper trail with electronic voting machines

    NhNewslinks.com -- Does Tompkins hire for Romney forecast SC showdown?

    Quorum Report -- Madera Funeral Details

    WisPolitics.com -- Insurance Commissioner Gomez Resigns

    Capitol Fax Durbin touts Obama for prez

    JohnCombest.com -- McCaskill On Don't Ask, Don't Tell

    Posted 11.28.06 10:09 AM | Comments (0)

    Hotline After Dark -- The Media Becomes The Story


    Lots of talk last night on NBC's decision to call Iraq a "civil war":

    MSNBC's Olbermann: "Is this the Walter Cronkite moment of the Iraq War?" ("Countdown," 11/27).

    FNC's Hannity: "They think that they're Walter Cronkite and they want to have an impact here. But they've never given the American public the story about all the success in Iraq" ("Hannity & Colmes," 11/27).

    CNN's Ware, in Baghdad: "By any academic's definition, this is civil war, organized conflict by two elements within a country to pursue the political center, with elements of ethnic cleansing, militia combat, family against family, neighbor against neighbor, with a degree of organization and coordination. ... So, whether the White House calls it civil war or not, the fact on the ground is, if this is not civil war, we don't want to see one when it comes" ("PZ Now," 11/27).

    More Ware: "Anyone who still remains in doubt about whether this is civil war or not is suffering from the luxury of distance" ("Situation Room," 11/27).

    Pat Buchanan: "If you want to call it a civil war, fine. But it's not a traditional civil war, like the Spanish Civil War, where one side or the other is fighting for the capital and control of the entire country. It's a series of wars, a number of wars in one" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/27).

    Retired Gen./NBC News analyst Barry McCaffrey: "I've been calling it that, a low-grade civil war, for the last 18 months" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/27).

    Washington Post's Priest: "I think one of the reasons the president resists that label is because it equates almost with a failure of U.S. policy" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/27).

    Ex-Pres. Carter: "I think there's certainly been indications of civil war for a long time. The war is between civil entities within the country and it's obviously reached a point of not being constrained or controlled by outside forces, including American forces, so I don't think there's anything wrong with calling it a civil war. It doesn't change the character of it just because NBC has said that but I don't think it's a misnomer for it" ("LKL," CNN, 11/27). [EMILY GOODIN]

    Posted 11.28.06 07:11 AM | Comments (0)

    November 27, 2006

    Today's Blogometer: Forever Backing The Frontrunner

    While it's unclear what alternatives will eventually emerge (ex-Sen. John Edwards, Sen. Barack Obama for Dems; ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani and MA Gov. Mitt Romney for GOPers), it can safely be said that the respective sides of the 'sphere both will fight their parties' current '08 frontrunners (Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and John McCain (R-AZ)). Is blogger preference for underdogs an emerging pattern, or the fluke of a unique cycle absent an incumbent Pres. or VP from either party? In '04, the netroots staunchly supported "outsider" Howard Dean while righty bloggers uniformly backed Pres. Bush, who was unopposed in the '04 GOP primary. But had the blogosphere existed in '00, how would online support have broken down? Al Gore is lefty favorite now, but it seems a stretch to believe he would have been a huge favorite over then-Sen. Bill Bradley (D-NY). And on the GOP side, it's hard to imagine righty bloggers lining up for McCain.

    DEM FIELD: Hillary Haters Or Alternative Lovers?

    MyDD's Chris Bowers looks ahead to '08 and wonders what role the netroots will play in Dem primaries without a DNC chair Howard Dean-like standard bearer support. Bowers's acknowledges "[s]everal potential candidates, most notably Clark, Edwards, Gore and Obama, appear to have a substantial amount of online support" but still worries whether "a divided progressive movement in 2008 will result in a dilution of netroots influence over the primary season."

    Bowers also "fear[s]" a divided netroots could lead to "a very, very ugly scene online" during the primary season and is not sure whether the netroots biggest '08 impact will be "how they drag Hillary Clinton down," or "how they build a different candidate up." Bowers argues HRC's netroot approval numbers "should be very worrying to any member of her 2008 campaign team" and worries about what an HRC victory would mean "to the influence of the netroots within the Democratic Party."

    Continue reading today's Blogometer.

    Posted 11.27.06 01:49 PM | Comments (0)

    The Daily Troika: It Begins

    troi.GIF The first yard signs of the 2008 White House contest are in the ground in South Carolina.

    A Hotline spy tells us that close to 50 yard signs showed up between I-85 and Clemson University. The candidate: Attorney/'00 cong. candidate/'02 Sen candidate/'04 Cook Co. (IL) Recorder of Deeds nom. John Cox (R).

    Click here for proof that we're not making this up.

    Also, a Hotline staff writer saw a bumper sticker supporting a White House bid by Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) in Connecticut over the holiday weekend. Where can we find Katherine Harris or Shelley Sekula Gibbs paraphernalia?

    Squibs:

  • A CNN/Opinion Research poll shows Rudy Giuliani (R) leading the WH '08 GOP field with 33%, followed by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) at 30% and Newt Gingrich and MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) with 9% each (release).


  • The IA GOP has selected 8/11/07 as the date for the Ames straw poll (Des Moines Register).


  • CA, FL, and MI are trying to move their respective presidential primaries "as close as possible" to NH's (Boston Globe).


  • Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) "has established a seedling support network" in IA (Des Moines Register).


  • A NH Dem on John Edwards: "I don't think there's ever been a time I've talked to him when he hasn't concluded by point-blank asking if I'll sign on to his team" (AP).


  • Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS): "We're very close with announcements" ("This Week").


  • Al Gore: "I don't have any plans to run. Nor do I have any creative denials. I'm using the same ones. They'll soon be out on DVD" (Time). Also, Gore has started training 1K "Climate Project" volunteers (AP).


  • IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) will keynote a 12/11 Dem Professionals Council lunch in West Palm Beach. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) "is a maybe for the group's January lunch" (Palm Beach Post).

    Posted 11.27.06 10:09 AM | Comments (0)

    NBC: It's A Civil War

    NBC's Lauer noted on the "Today" show this a.m.: "For months now the White House has rejected claims that the situation in Iraq has deteriorated into a civil war. And, for the most part, news organizations like NBC have hesitated to characterize it as such. But after careful consideration, NBC News has decided a change in terminology is warranted -- that the situation in Iraq with armed militarized factions fighting for their own political agendas -- can now be characterized as a civil war" (11/27).

    Posted 11.27.06 09:41 AM | Comments (0)

    Pelosi Begins To Educate Her Caucus

    Here's what Democrats have to look forward to this week, courtesy of Speaker-elect Pelosi, in a memo she sent to her caucus last week:


    Dear Democratic Colleague:

    Congratulations again on your election. The American people have asked for change, and with your leadership, we are going to take our nation in a New Direction. I am deeply honored and grateful for the opportunity given me by the Democratic Caucus to serve as the next Speaker of the House. Thank you so much for your vote of confidence in me. We will accomplish so much together.

    During the week of December 4th, we have scheduled presentations on two of the most critical issues we will confront in the 110th Congress. I urge your attendance at both.

    * On Tuesday, December 5, at 9:00 a.m. we will hear a presentation on Iraq. Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, and Major General John Batiste will be among the presenters.

    * On Wednesday, December 6, at 9:30 a.m. we will have a presentation on the economy by former Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin on the need for restoring fiscal discipline and building a competitive economy to create jobs in America.

    You will be receiving additional materials from my office on these two sessions soon. In the meantime, I hope you will add both to your busy schedules.

    We all have so much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving, and I hope that you have a wonderful holiday. I look forward to seeing you in early December.

    best regards,

    NANCY PELOSI
    Speaker of the House-Designate

    Posted 11.27.06 09:28 AM | Comments (14)

    The Sunday Snapshot: All About IRaq

    The war in Iraq dominated the Sunday talk shows:

    Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA): "What we could do right now before we decide whether we want to increase or decrease or maintain the level of American forces [in Iraq], before you make those decisions, let's take the forces we've already trained, we've already equipped, which are 50 miles away in some cases, move them into the fight, see how they carry that security burden. And after we get a handle on how well they're doing, then we can make adjustments on the American force level" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 11/26).

    Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS): "We cannot face the public again in 2008 with the current situation still in hand for the United States. We have to get to a political solution in the region. We have to push a political solution in the region, and I think we've really got to start pushing people there on the ground and in the area to come together, to work together because we can't have this same situation 18 months from now facing the United States" ("This Week," ABC, 11/26).

    Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO): "We all agree on the one thing, and I think the key is getting the Iraqis trained and fully advised" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 11/26).

    Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "We are dealing with the worst foreign policy decision that's been made in America since Vietnam. It is a terrible situation, not easily resolved and not quickly resolved. When the Democrats take control, you're not going to see a change overnight. We have to work very carefully with our Republican friends and with the administration to find the best way to bring this to a close" ("This Week," ABC, 11/26).

    Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), on how many more troops are needed in Iraq: "I would take the advice of our generals on the ground. But I think we're talking about 20 to 50,000 additional troops to embed them with the Iraqis, so that when we clear areas, we can actually secure them" ("Late Edition," CNN, 11/26).

    Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI): "I think 20,000 extra troops would probably not be decisive in terms of changing the political dynamic and the security dynamic in Iraq. And indeed, we'd have a very difficult time sustaining an additional 20,000 troops over, say, a year or more. A third of our brigades in the United States are reporting nondeployable because of personnel and equipment shortages. So the prospect of a magic bullet with just more troops, I don't think is there" ("Late Edition," CNN, 11/26).

    [EMILY GOODIN]


    Incoming Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO): "I think what the vice president did this week, in going to Saudi Arabia, and what the president is doing, in terms of traveling to Jordan, you're beginning to see the commander in chief recognize that we have to do, with Iraq, what they're working very hard to do, right now, with Afghanistan through NATO. And that is to engage other nations, particularly the moderate Arab countries that are in the region. They have a huge stake in what happens in Iraq. And we have to begin to engage them in order to have them weigh in. If we do not do that, what has become a civil war is going to disintegrate and begin to impact other nations besides just Iraq. And then we have really created an incredible mess" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 11/26).



    Incoming Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH): "Today marks the day that this war is as long as World War II, and the exit strategy needs to begin immediately and a withdrawal in a year and a half to two years. I don't think the Iraqis are ever going to build their police, their military or police security forces on their own until they know that there is a date that we are leaving. And I think we're beginning to see that coming from the administration with a little more clarity" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 11/26).



    Incoming Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN): "I think that all of us understand we're in a really complex situation. We all know it's going to evolve. All of us care about our men and women in uniform in Iraq. And we want to see a solution that causes there to be a secure and accountable government. And I think there will be some bipartisan efforts to cause us to come together around this issue that most Americans care very deeply about" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 11/26).

    THE VIEW POINT FROM THE MIDDLE EAST



    King Abdullah of Jordan, on Iraq: "There needs to be some very strong action taken on the ground there today. Obviously, the indicators are of tremendous concern to all of us, and I don't think we're in a position where we can come back and revisit the problem in early 2007. There needs to be a strategy. There needs to be a plan that brings all the parties together, and bring them today and not tomorrow."

    More: "The difficulty that we're tackling with here is, we're juggling with the strong potential of three civil wars in the region, whether it's the Palestinians, that of Lebanon or of Iraq. And I hope that my discussions, at least, with the president will be to provide whatever we can do for the Iraqi people. But at the same time, we do want to concentrate ourselves on the core issues, which we believe are the Palestinians and the Palestinian peace process, because that is a must today, as well as the tremendous concern we've had over the past several days, what's happening in Lebanon. And we could possibly imagine going into 2007 and having three civil wars on our hands. And therefore, it is time that we really take a strong step forward as part of the international community and make sure we avert the Middle East from a tremendous crisis that I fear, and I see could possibly happen in 2007."

    Abdullah: "I do believe that there are feelers going to different countries to see if we can come together on the issue of Iraq. But I think, the problem is, is that America needs to look at it in the total picture. It's not just one issue by itself. I keep saying Palestine is the core. It is linked to the extent of what's going on in Iraq. It is linked to what's going on in Lebanon. It is linked to the issues that we find ourselves with the Syrians. So, if you want to do comprehensive -- comprehensive means bringing all the parties of the region together" ("This Week," ABC, 11/26).

    GETTING THE HOUSE IN ORDER



    Reps. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), John Dingell (D-MI) and Barney Frank (D-MA) stopped by "Fox News Sunday" to discuss various policy issues and what the new Congress will be like:



    Frank, on the new Congress: "In my own committee, the biggest difference you're going to see is we're going to return to try to help deal with the housing crisis that blights so many parts of our country socially and economically. And again, I think reversing these attacks on housing for the elderly and other forms of affordable housing I think it will really be quite popular."



    Asked if Dems will try to drive through liberal policies, Dingell: "I think what we really need to do is understand, Democrats like winning elections. We want to win elections, and we're going to do our best to do so. This doesn't mean to get into any extreme positions on any matter. We'll do what makes good sense on Iraq, what makes good sense on tax policy, what makes good sense on the environment and on energy, and we'll come up with a package that the people will like and that will make good sense in the middle."



    Rangel, of course, was asked about the draft: "I want to make it abundantly clear that I have been advocating a draft ever since the president has been talking about war, and none of this comes within the jurisdiction of the Ways and Means Committee. But I want to make it abundantly clear, if there's anyone who believes that these youngsters want to fight, as the Pentagon and some generals have said, you can just forget about it. No young, bright individual wants to fight just because of a bonus and just because of educational benefits. And most all of them come from communities of very, very high unemployment. If a young fellow has an option of having a decent career or joining the Army to fight in Iraq, you can bet your life that he would not be in Iraq. So anyone who supports the war and is against everyone sharing in the sacrifice is being hypocritical about the whole thing. The record is clear, and once we are able to get hearings on this, everyone will see what they already know, and that is that those who have the least opportunities at this age find themselves in the military, as I did when I was 18 years old."



    Frank to FNC's Wallace: "I've just been listening, and every single question you asked -- you said it's to see what the Democrats are going to be like. We were all prepared to talk about a very positive agenda we have in tax fairness, in environmental concerns, in housing, and, of course, all of your questions have been aimed at trying to find points of controversy, which are not going to be high on our agenda" (11/26).

    Durbin: "The first item of business in this new Senate is going to be ethics reform. ... Overwhelmingly the men and women who serve in the House and the Senate of both political parties are honest, hard-working people. But clearly, the image of Congress is terrible, with people going to prison and all sorts of allegations of misdealing. So we need to move forward first in restoring confidence in the integrity of Congress and then get down to the important work that lies ahead" ("This Week," ABC, 11/26).

    HE'S BACK



    Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) was on "Meet" to talk about why he won:

    Schwarzenegger: "I think that the key thing is that, you know, if you forget about the Republicans, Democrats, independents and all this, I think that we did the people's work. And we did what the people wanted us to do. And so it doesn't really matter what party you come from."

    On what it means to be a "Schwarzenegger Republican": "It's basically being fiscally conservative, being socially moderate and you know, being environmentally progressive."

    Asked if he feels he should be able to run for POTUS: "I think that it will never happen in my lifetime. I think that it's something that the people of America can debate over in the future. And this is a debate worth happening. You know, let the debate go on, but I mean, it's not for me. I'm happy where I am; I'm happy to be a public servant and to serve the people of California."

    Asked who he'll support in '08: "I don't know yet."

    Asked if he would challenge Sen. Boxer in '10: "I'm not really thinking about what I'm doing in 2010. I'm not ruling anything out, but I'm not really thinking about any of that" (NBC, 11/26).

    ANOTHER COMEBACK KID



    Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) was on "Fox News Sunday":



    On Iraq: "We need to do this in a coordinated way, with Republicans and Democrats and independents working with the president, listening to our best experts that we can possibly find, working with the more moderate elements in the region to deal with this problem. Because if we don't contain the situation in Iraq, it will get outside those borders. It will spread. And I still believe that if we were not fighting them there, if we didn't have them tied down in Afghanistan and Iraq, they'd be, you know, somewhere else, in England or even right here."



    On his comeback: "We all learn from our mistakes, hopefully. And you can do one of two things. You can just quit and go away, or you can go back and try to do your job, to make amends and to focus on the issues that really affect people's lives."



    Asked about calling for Karl Rove to resign: "I've been in sort of a liberated mode. Some people say that they hope, in my new leadership position, I won't give that up. I do believe in trying to be honest and respectful. I've had problems with some of the conduct of Karl Rove. But I have a good relationship with the president and most of the people around him. I think Josh Bolton is doing a great job as his chief of staff. You know, the president and I can communicate. And I want to see him succeed, because he is the president" (11/26).

    ANNOUNCEMENT TIME IS COMING



    Brownback, asked about a WH run: "We're very close with announcements. My wife and I and our family have spent a lot of time thinking about this, praying about it, and really considering whether we could bring a message to the country that needs to be discussed. I think there is room, on the Republican side, for somebody that's a full-scale conservative, that's an economic and fiscal and social conservative. And I think there's room on our side, and need on our side, to develop some new plays, particularly on the compassionate conservative agenda. So we'll be making some announcements, soon, about that" ("This Week," ABC, 11/26).

    ROUNDTABLE ROUNDUP



    The "Fox News Sunday" roundtable discussed the situation in Iraq and WH '08.



    NPR's Liasson, on Romney: "We're in this extraordinary situation where there is no natural conservative candidate in the Republican field. There is not even a Southern candidate. And this in a party that just got a lot more Southern after the 2006 elections. So it's very unusual that you've got this situation. And, of course, he wants to run as the most conservative candidate."



    Weekly Standard's Kristol: "There's always a surprise or two in the field. I just think in a post-9/11 environment, with war going on in Iraq, whatever our current stance will be a year from now in Iraq, it will not be safe and happy. The Middle East will not be a peaceful place. Putin will not be a cooperative leader of Russia, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Voters are going to want to nominate and elect someone, I think, who can be commander-in-chief on day one. And with all due respect to Senator Obama, just two years in the Senate is not going to be a sufficient qualification. And that's why McCain and Giuliani and Gingrich can be nominated. That's why Romney could be if he can cross the foreign policy hurdle over the next year" (11/26).

    The "This Week" roundtable discussed the situation in Iraq, the new Congress, and WH '08.

    Washington Post's Dionne: "What's striking is the thinness of the crop on the conservative side of the Republican Party, which is why I think Sam Brownback is perfectly smart to try to fill that void. There are really only two candidates there that I can see right now, one Brownback, the other is Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, very interesting candidate. People are talking about will evangelicals support a Mormon candidate, a discussion by the way we didn't have when his father a Mormon ran many, many in 1968" (ABC, 11/26).


    Posted 11.27.06 09:15 AM | Comments (0)

    November 21, 2006

    Senate Race Updates: TX, OR and ID

    Despite Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R) resounding '06 win, one TX Dem insider says Dems are hopeful that a strong challenger to Sen. John Cornyn (R) will still emerge. The Dem claims Cornyn "has significantly lower approval rating" than Hutchison and that Gov. Rick Perry's (R) plurality win shows the TX GOP base is only 40% of voters. However the Dem concedes that a credible challenger would have to start raising money right now for what could be a $12M campaign.

    Already mentioned as possibilities are '98/'02 LG nominee/ex-Comp. John Sharp (D) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D), but ex-Rep. Jim Turner (D) still has over $1M CoH left over. There are "rumblings" about Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-28) running, and '02 nominee/ex-Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk's (D) name gets batted around occasionally too (Hotline reporting, 11/21).

    OREGON: Ben There, Going To Do That?

    When asked via e-mail, '06 GOV candidate/state Sen. Ben Westlund (I) political adviser Stacey Dycus writes: "Democrats have been asking Ben to run against" Sen. Gordon Smith (R), "but he really hasn't considered it. People have also asked him about" Treas. and re-election to state Senate. "Right now, he's not thinking about his next election, he's thinking about a well-deserved vacation and the next session. ... He is an independent and all I can tell you is that his heart and mind is closer to the views held by Democrats, but he has no plans to change registration. If asked, he may caucus with the D's this session"

    An OR Dem source reports general optimism about '08, given Smith will up in a presidential year. Ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D), as always, is the "lion in waiting." Other attractive candidates would be Clatsop Co. DA Josh Maquis (D), Educ. Sup't Susan Castillo (D), and Treas. Randall Edwards (D) (Hotline reporting, 11/21).

    MAINE: All Eyes On Allen

    A ME GOP source concedes Sen. Susan Collins (R) won't likely get a free pass in '08, however most Dems are waiting to see what Rep. Tom Allen (D-01) will do before making their own plans. Allen has long expressed interesting in running for SEN, and the lingering rumors about him running in '06 may have kept state Senate Maj. Leader Michael Brennan (D) from challenge Sen. Olympia Snowe (R). But Allen will be pressed to make a quicker decision for '08, and the GOPer notes Allen didn't run a single TV ad this campaign (presumably to build his warchest) and has spent a lot of time recently in ME-02, outside his CD. At last reporting, Allen had $440K CoH to Collins' $392K

    Although the new Dem majority in the House might discourage Allen from giving up his House seat, many think he's still likely to run. If not, AG Steve Rowe (D) could be a strong challenger. Also mentioned are Brennan and '02 nominee/Common Cause pres. Chellie Pingree (D), who ran a decent campaign in '02 (Hotline reporting, 11/21).

    Posted 11.21.06 12:34 PM | Comments (0)

    "Tuesday Dogs” All Bark and No Bite?

    Amid all the hoopla last week hailing the Blue Dogs’ new place in the sun were a couple articles suggesting the conservative Democrats would work with the moderate Republican Tuesday Group on a number of issues. Mark Kirk's (R-IL) office is already dubbing the new team the “Tuesday Dogs.” But aside from the fact that both groups face political challenges at home and in their respective caucuses, what do F-150 Democrats and Volvo Republicans really have in common?

    In general, the Tuesday Groupers represent suburban districts that encompass towns like ritzy Fairfield, CT, and Lake Forest, IL, while the Blue Dogs are rural Democrats from places like the Napoleonville, LA, and Port St. Joe, FL.

    As the geography would suggest, this presents a cultural rift. A number of Blue Dogs, including boss hog John Tanner (D-TN), voted to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case while a couple Tuesday Groupers, including likely 110th Congress co-chair Charlie Dent (R-PA), spoke out against the measure.

    It is also hard to see where the two coalitions would strike a common chord on matters like trade or energy. An analysis of CD’s reveals that the median household income in Tuesday Group districts hovers around $50K/year -- which is about $10K more than it is in Blue Dog districts. Moreover, the poverty level is higher in Blue Dog districts (~14%) and their constituents are more likely to work blue-collar jobs. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

    On energy issues, where the Blue Dogs have had trouble finding consensus, a rep from AR or LA may be more likely to consider the argument for oil exploration in Alaska or the Gulf of Mexico through an economic lens, while Chris Shays (R-CT) focuses on defending ANWR’s caribou for Greenwich’s trustafarians. On trade issues, it seems likely that the Tuesday Group would turn to free-traders at the DLC or the New Dems before the Blue Dogs.


    Still, leading reps from both camps insist that the two will get together on what matters most: the budget. Blue Dog spokesman Eric Wortman stressed that the lynchpin of the coalition is and has always been fiscal responsibility, which is where they’ll look to the Tuesday Group. One senior aide to a Tuesday group member, who declined to speak on the record, eagerly agreed, and hoped that the two groups would also work together on an agenda that includes heath care reform and college tuition.

    But budgets are a reflection of representatives’ priorities, which are reflections of the districts they represent. From that perspective, one former press secretary to a Blue Dog predicted, “I really doubt that they would work together,” and another Blue Dog aide described talks of a formal alliance as “overblown.”

    One more staffer for a leading Blue Dog put it this way: “My boss… has always worked with moderate Republicans and will continue to do so if it will accomplish fiscal responsibility goals, but whether that becomes a formal umbrella group is uncertain and, in my opinion, unlikely.”

    Wortman conceded that the idea of a hybrid caucus was in fact overblown, but added, Blue Dogs “are always for any kind of bipartisanship.”

    Posted 11.21.06 12:24 PM | Comments (0)

    For Those Who Like Television News Themes...

    The Hotline is partial to "The Mission" ourselves, but here's a treat for those of you who really like the theme music for the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric.

    Be most thankful for this Thanksgiving gift.


    Posted 11.21.06 11:19 AM | Comments (0)

    How Many Others Will Flip?

    More proof that New England Republicans are in danger of taking up permanent residence at the margins comes this morning when a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives switches from Republican to Democrat. North Stonington Republican Diana Urban, elected to a fourth term two weeks ago, often voted with Democrats in the legislature. Her departure from the ranks of the GOP reduces their number to 44 of 151.

    Urban enjoyed a flurry of attention last summer when she launched a quixotic bid to run for the United States Senate as a petitioning candidate. She failed to collect the number of signatures required.

    Why Urban waited until two weeks after the election to tell the voters of her district that she would no longer be a Republican is a question members of the GOP will be posing to Urban. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]

    Posted 11.21.06 10:42 AM | Comments (16)

    Hotline After Dark: Getting Drafty

    Henry Kissinger commenting on Iraq and Charlie Rangel proposing a draft -- it's inevitable the Vietnam comparisons resurface:

    MSNBC's Shuster: "Even though Vietnam brought down a presidency and Iraq has already cost the president's party control of Congress, the change of course in Iraq remains a subject of debate. The war, however, drags on, and like Vietnam one generation ago, there does not appear to be an end in sight" ("Hardball," 11/20).

    CNN's Schneider: "Has Iraq become another Vietnam? Most Americans say it has. What does that mean? It means people don't think the United States is winning. It means most Americans don't believe the U.S. will win" ("Situation Room," 11/20).

    FNC's Garrett: "House Democratic leaders wanted no part of colleague Charles Rangel's push to reinstate the draft" ("Special Report," 11/20).

    Rangel, on the draft: "I'm saying it's unfair just to have the same troops going over, over and over. We've got about 150,000 troops over there, one-third of our National Guard. You don't believe that the National Guard's people should be going over there two or three times" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/20).

    More Rangel: "What I'm trying to do is to send a message that, when you say we need more troops, that you know where these troops are coming from. I'm trying to say that, if you believe that Osama bin Laden is a threat to the United States of America, and not oil, and not problems he's having, and not civil war, but a threat to us, then you have to say, everyone, put up something" ("AC 360," CNN, 11/20)..[EMILY GOODIN]


    Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), on the proposal: "The all-volunteer force is working and has worked. The downside, of course, is -- and I recently ran the statistics -- the downside on this, as most of the deaths that have occurred in Iraq are young people that come from small-town America or from the inner city. Charlie Rangel should be credited with pointing out the fact that people in the military do not represent a broad spectrum of America" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 11/20).

    EXPERIENCE ISN'T EVERYTHING

    CNN's Lemon talked to Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) after his Chicago speech.

    Asked if he was trying to up his foreign policy credentials: "I gave a similar speech last year in the exact same venue. And I've been giving speeches on foreign policy since I was on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. So, I think the timing has more to do with the fact that it's been almost precisely a year since I last called for us to change direction in Iraq. After the election I think it's clear that the American people believe that we need to change course in a significant way."

    More: "What we have is a toxic brew in Iraq, and what my speech specifically says is that without a fazed redeployment where we are sending a strong signal to the Iraqi government that they have to take some responsibility for arriving at a political solution ... that we are not going to see any significant progress and we will continue to have our young men and women in a line of fire without any demonstrable steps being taken to stabilize the situation."

    Asked about Rangel's draft proposal: "Enormous respect for Congressman Rangel. He himself is a veteran and I think that he understandably believes that all of us should be making sacrifices not just a few of us, when it comes to decisions to go to war. I think that the volunteer army has worked effectively up until the point where we made bad decisions on the part of the civilian government, where we essentially decided to go into Iraq, overstretch our resources, not think through what our plan for the post-war situation would be. And as a consequence, our military has been way overstretched. My attitude is is that if we have good strategy, then the volunteer military forces that we have in place right now are more than adequate, they are by far the best fighting force in the world."

    Asked about his experience: "I think the important thing is not experience per se. Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney had the best resumes in Washington and initiated a fiasco in Iraq. But rather, does someone have the judgment necessary to learn from experience and make good decisions? And that is something that generally I've been able to do in the various work that I've done."

    Asked when he'll make an '08 decision: "I don't have a particular timetable. The fact is that I'm also spending a lot of time thinking about what I can get done in this upcoming Congress, where I'm in the majority for the first time" (CNN, 11/20).

    LOOKING TO HOME FIRST

    Comedian Al Franken was on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" and asked about MN SEN:

    Franken: "I don't know. Actually, we're deciding, I think, this weekend, the family, my family."

    CNN's Dobbs: "OK, I'll give you the number, and I want you to let me know immediately."

    Franken: "I think if I tell someone, it might be somebody in Minnesota" (CNN, 11/20).

    SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR THIS HOLIDAY SEASON

    FNC's O'Reilly, on Fox cancelling the O.J. special: "This should put to rest, once and for all, the independence of
    FOX News. ... What other network ... would have allowed its commentators to go on and to slam, to hammer the programming arm? FOX News Channel has nothing to do with FOX Broadcasting. We made that quite clear. ... FOX News stepped up big. And, once we did, the folks got it, because, obviously, we have a very big reach. And, when the folks heard it ... they let FOX know. And, to its credit, to its credit, News Corporation, led by Rupert Murdoch, said: OK. We're hearing you. We're not going to run it. They did the right thing" ("O'Reilly Factor," 11/20).

    ABC's Bury: "In the end, it seems clear the Simpson project failed largely because of that ancient virtue known as shame" ("Nightline," 11/20)

    Posted 11.21.06 09:40 AM | Comments (0)

    November 20, 2006

    Today On Hotline TV: The Bold And The Brave

    We're very good at predicting races. So we decided to save you all the hassle and predict the 2008 Senate showdown just a few years early. Could Dems have a good night or another great night?

    hotline-tv.jpg

    Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

    Posted 11.20.06 01:30 PM | Comments (0)

    The Dems In The West

    Kudos to the Salt Lake Tribune for a colorful clip-n-save about the Democrats' strength in the West.

    A factoid: in total House vote, Dems won in three Bush '04 states: CO, NV and NM

    Posted 11.20.06 12:23 PM | Comments (0)

    The Daily Troika: It's Saul Over

    troi.GIF MI district 3 chair Dave DiShaw ended his campaign for MI GOP chair this weekend as rival and current chair Saul Anuzis endorsed a semi-open primary. DiShaw sent a letter to GOPers saying that while "there was significant support for a new Chairman," there was not "overwhelming consensus that change at the top was the only way to achieve our aim of a rededicated, renewed Michigan Republican Party." DiShaw said Anuzis had agreed to "Act on the concerns of the local grassroots leadership." Local elected officials "and grassroots leaders should have a say in who their field representatives are, how they function, and what strategies are used in local races." Also: "Create better strategies with regard to the Election Day Operation program, particularly the credential and challenging logistics." And: "Communicate with grassroots and party leaders via regular phone consultation and make sure that all party leadership is a part of the decision making process." Finally: "Use more caution in selecting GOTV lists that are based on micro-targeting data." Anuzis responded, thanking Republicans for "sharing in this dialogue and for being a part of this Grand Old Party."

    Anuzis had, in the past, supported a closed primary or caucus, types of contests which generally favor more conservative candidates because they disproportionately empower the party's activists. Sen. John McCain won Michigan's open primary in 2000, and Anuzis's work to change the rules was a major reason why McCain's allies in the state did not trust him. Assuming no one else files to run against him, Anuzis will be re-elected in 2/07 at the MI GOP convention in Grand Rapids. Squibs:

  • MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) said he would seek to put a ban on same-sex marriages on the '08 MA ballot (Boston Globe). A Dan Jones & Assoc. poll for the Deseret Morning News and KSL-TV shows Romney as the most popular '08 choice in UT with 44% (release).

  • John Edwards said of Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL): "I hope he runs. I think he should run" (AP).

  • Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) called for deploying more troops to Iraq. Meanwhile, ex-Sec/State Henry Kissinger said victory in Iraq is no longer possible (Bloomberg).

  • Asked if he's not "given up the thought" of running in '08, John Kerry: "Not in the least" ("Fox News Sunday").

  • Rudy Giuliani's (R) critics "are set to launch 'swift boat'-type strikes to inform voters" about Giuliani's "behavior" before 9/11 (New York Post).

  • There has been talk of CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) "delivering a major policy speech next year" in IA or NH (Los Angeles Times).

    Posted 11.20.06 11:34 AM | Comments (1)

    The Hotline's Sunday Snapshot: Vote For Me!

    Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) appeared on "This Week":

    Asked why people should support him instead of Rudy Giuliani: "My record. My record of being a conservative Republican, of knowledge on national security and defense issues. My advocacy for less government is the best government, and I think people should be judged on their record, but also their vision for the future of the country."

    Asked if the pro-choice/pro-gay rights Giuliani can get the GOP nod: "I don't know. I know that he's an American hero. I know that Americans will never forget the magnificent job he did following 9/11, and I think he would be very favorably looked on by a lot of Americans."

    Asked if he's pro-gay rights: "In the respect that I believe that the don't ask, don't tell policy is working in the military. I don't know how you view that. I do not believe that marriage between -- I believe in the sanctity and unique role of marriage between man and woman, but I certainly don't believe in discriminating against any American."

    More: "I do not believe gay marriage should be legal, but I do believe that people ought to be able to enter into contracts, exchange powers of attorney, other ways that people who have relationship can enter into."

    ABC's Stephanopoulos: "You threw your support behind Trent Lott to be Republican whip. He has said that homosexuality is a sin. Is that what you think?"

    McCain: "I've never heard Trent Lott state that, but, no, that's not what I..."

    Stephanopoulos: "That's not your position?"

    McCain: "No."

    Stephanopoulos: "You're for a constitutional amendment banning abortion, with some exceptions for life and rape and incest."

    McCain: "Rape, incest and the life of the mother. Yes."

    Stephanopoulos: "So is President Bush, yet that hasn't advanced in the six years he's been in office. What are you going to do to advance a constitutional amendment that President Bush hasn't done?"

    McCain: "I don't think a constitutional amendment is probably going to take place, but I do believe that it's very likely or possible that the Supreme Court should -- could overturn Roe v. Wade, which would then return these decisions to the states, which I support."


    Asked if in his WH run he'll stay within the public finance system: "It depends, one, on what other candidates might do. But the problem is that we haven't updated the public financing on presidential campaigns -- you can go back to '74 laws, and that puts one at a very significant disadvantage. What we need to do is update the presidential financing system so that it's more in keeping with today's reality, where people raise $50, $100, $150 million."

    On his age: "I say that I'm older than dirt and I have more scars than Frankenstein, but I've learned a few things on the way. And I'd like them to meet my 94-year-old mother who just returned from traveling in France" (ABC, 11/19).

    NO LAUGHING MATTER



    Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) appeared on "Fox News Sunday." Most of the interview focused on his botched joke. Out of the 13 questions asked, 11 were on that subject.

    On the joke: "Obviously, it was a bad joke, and I apologized for it. And we moved on, and we should move on. You know, we had an historic election, absolutely historic. The American people spoke. And I worked very, very hard for those two years to help us elect a Democratic majority. It was clear to me that if people wanted to make that joke a distraction, I didn't want it to be. I wanted to win -- results. You know, campaigns are about winning and losing. We won. Now we move on."

    After getting asked about it again by FNC's Wallace, Kerry said: "They don't want to talk about a joke that's old news. Only you do."

    Wallace: "No, it's not just me."

    Kerry: "I think the measure of an individual in public life and the measure of what I have done is much bigger than missing one word in a bad joke. And, you know, that's a game everybody plays here in Washington. What people want to know is, what are we going to do about these major issues? America has lost its moral authority in the world. Does that matter, as we sit here today? Does that matter to people who play this parlor game in Washington?"

    Asked how it will effect him in '08: "The voters will decide that in the future. I believe the voters want to see leadership. And I'm proud of the leadership that I've offered."

    Asked if he's not "given up the thought" of running in '08: "Not in the least. I'm looking at it in the same way. The people that I have talked to across the country are -- my team is confident and strong. I don't know what I'll do" (11/19).

    MORE VIETNAM COMPARISONS TO COME?



    Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), asked about Iraq: "If we're going to challenge Iran and challenge North Korea and then, as some people have asked, to send more troops to Iraq, we can't do that without a draft. Lastly, a draft doesn't necessarily mean that everyone drafted will have to serve in the military. I think at a time where national security is so important, having our young people commit themselves to a couple of years in service to this great republic, whether it's our seaports, our airports, in schools, in hospitals. And at the end of that to provide some educational benefits, it's the best thing for our young people and the best thing for our country. I will be introducing that bill as soon as we start the new session."

    More: "I don't see how anyone can support the war and not support the draft. I think to do so is hypocritical" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 11/19).

    Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC): "I agree with him we don't have enough people. But I think we can get enough people through a voluntary force" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 11/19).

    WE'RE ALL FRIENDS HERE



    Incoming House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer appeared on "This Week":

    On his relationship with incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi: "We've worked very closely together, created a