November 30, 2006

6th Year Itch Or War Election?

Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

A panel with DCCC IE director John Lapp, FEC chairman Michael Toner, Donna Brazile, Fred Barnes and Slate's John Dickerson on the 2006 midterms. Larry J. Sabato is your moderator.

Lapp: "It wasn't until the end of 2005 and into 2006 that we had a serious shot [at taking the House].

Toner: "One of the unwritten stories of this year is that Republicans closed well and they won't most of the close races. Of the races decided by 4 percentage points or close, Republicans won [most of them.] It could have been worse for Republicans."

Toner noted that the Democratic party committees raised as much this year (all in hard money) than they did in '02, when they could still accept soft money. Also: Toner noted a sudden upsurge in challenger fundraising.

Brazile: "We didn't give [Republicans] disunity. [Democrats] were pretty unified."

Barnes: "This was a war election [not a sixth year itch election.] Imagine if the Iraq War wasn't going on. Would Democrats have won the Senate? I don't think so." More Barnes: "When you look back at history and you see presidents or parties running when there is no victory in site... like...say 1862 when Lincoln was president and Republicans lost seats...in 1952, Harry Truman would have run for re-election absent the Korean War which lowered his presdiential approval rating down to the 20s...1968...absent the war in Vietnam, would LBJ have backed out? Would Democrats have lost? Of course not."

Sabato: "The 1950 midterm election... Republicans picked up 29 House seats and 6 Senate seats. And they say history doesn't repeat itself."

Lapp: "The overall theme of the election was, it's competence and corruption, stupid."

Dickerson: "The president lost his gut connection [with the American people] on the war and the economy in 2005 and never got it back. If you at all the polling that took place before and after the election, Iraq was through the roof."

Toner: "In the micro sense, in some of these key races, [corruption] was the decisive factor."

Sabato asks: "What about immigration?"

Lapp mentions J.D. Hayworth's defeat in AZ 05. :"Here's a guy who thought he could break the cycle by running on the immigration issue."

Brazile: "Immigration was ranked number 8 and it was tied with Medicare and Social Security and health care"

Barnes: "If Republicans had passed a comprehensive immigration reform over the yip-yaps of J.D. Hayworth and Tom Tancredo.... I think it would have marginally helped Republicans." He notes that Republicans took 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.

Sabato: New trends for 2008?

Toner: "PACs spent more than one billion dollars in this cycle and they were one of the few entities who did not get increased limits in the McCain Feingold law." Now "you have corporate PACs taking their own money and going on the air and running their own ads." More Toner: "Candidates raised about 30% percent more in the 2006 cycle than they did in the prior cycle."

Everyone else pretty much said "YouTube, Macaca and the Internet."

Brazile: "This was a banner year for women candidates and minority seats." There are 9 women governors, 16 women senators and 71 women members of the House.

Posted at 09:36 AM

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