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November 30, 2006

Back To The Future

It's never too early to start thinking about '08, which promises to be a volatile cycle even without a national wave.
Here are four categories of both parties' most vulnerable seats:

  • Untested Dems in Dem Districts: Some of the biggest upsets occurred in CDs that are trending Dem. But Reps.-elect Dave Loebsack (IA 02), Carol Shea-Porter (NH 01) and John Hall (NY 19) will have to prove they can run effective campaigns in a less-favorable environment.

  • Dems in GOP Districts: Will Jerry McNerney (CA 11) and Steve Kagen's (WI 08) voting records match their liberal campaign rhetoric? Zack Space (OH 18), Nancy Boyda (KS 02), Chris Carney (PA 10) and Nick Lampson (TX 22) also need to position themselves in tune with their conservative CDs.

  • Northeast GOPers: Reps. Jim Gerlach (PA 06) and Chris Shays (CT 04) can expect another tough challenge for '08. And add Charlie Dent (PA 15) to the list of likely Dem targets.

  • Outgoing GOPers: Will Rep. Ralph Regula (OH 16) or Bill Young (FL 10) retire? Will Heather Wilson (NM 01) run for the Senate? If they do, those seats would become highly competitive.


    • Posted at 02:30 PM

    Comments


    I gotta say, if Gerlach, Shays, et al, didn't lose this year, they're unlikely to be in serious trouble next year. Only one Dem who narrowly survived in 1994 lost over the course of the next decade (MO-09).

    The fact that there is such a large Freshman class -- and so many Freshman Democrats in GOP-leaning districts or swing districts -- presents some real opportunities for GOPers for the first time since 1994. Another question is whether entrenched Dems in GOP districts like Peterson in MN, Taylor in MS, Gordon in TN and Stupak in MI are tested now that they will have to vote on liberal measures for the first time in a decade. Probably not, but the Dem majority is small enough that some of them will have to compile some pretty liberal voting records if anything is going to get done. These guys have held on in part by being thrown lifelines by the GOP on gay marriage and such; they probably won't be able to brag about how much they voted with Bush anymore.

    Finally, let's not forget Dems who had relatively close calls in a good year. 6 of the 7 Republicans who were under 55% in 1994 lost over the course of the decade, the seventh retired and his seat went blue in 2000.

    Sean | 11.30.06 03:11 PM


    If Ralph Regula retires, it will be a democrat seat. The district is trending Dem in races other than Ralph's. Ralph's son is no longer viable after he lost his county commissioner's race. And there is an up and coming West Point grad who fits the part for the Dems.

    Holly Banks | 11.30.06 03:22 PM


    To Sean:

    Somehow I doubt the Democrats are going to put a vote a constitutional amendment mandating same-sex marriage. Progressive votes on things like the minimum wage, fair trade deals, and bargaining for prescription drug prices will play well in otherwise conservative districts. These Dems will be fine. There's a reason there are a lot more Democrats in Bush districts than Republicans in Kerry districts; people like it when government does things for the good of the people. And these Democrats are able to say they can bring home the bacon and work for thingsg that help the working man. As long as they stick to that and set aside Gods Guns and Gays, they'll be fine.

    Adam Terando | 11.30.06 08:29 PM


    Democrats in Bush districts will have to buck the leadership when those demands conflict with the more conservative nature of their districts. If they "go native" they will be voted out as fast as they were voted in.

    Nat Atkins | 12.02.06 05:19 PM

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