November 02, 2006
Dems Say Allen's Out Of Money
Allen Claims Dem Plot To Dispirit GOPers
Democrats detect a pattern in Sen. George Allen's campaign advertising schedule which suggests to them the incumbent is running out of money and is relying on an infusion from nat'l Republicans to reach parity with challenger James Webb. In turn, Allen's campaign accuses Democrats and Webb's campaign of fabricating the charge to dispirit conservatives and to fool the media into concluding that Allen is headed for defeat.
An independent review found that Allen has outspent Webb by $500K over the past five days. But Republicans said the NRSC had purchased additional airtime in the state today because the Allen campaign could not afford to pay on its own for an ad buy of adequate size. A Republican official said the NRSC "did not expect to be buying time in Virginia this late."
According to figures provided by two Democratic sources, one who has access to the Webb campaign's internal traffic reports and another who monitors ad buys statewide, Webb's campaign has purchased three times as many television and radio ads in Washington, D.C. for the next -- and final -- five days of the campaign.
Chris LaCivita, Allen's senior strategist, vigorously disputed those numbers and called their distribution a plot by Webb's campaign to demoralize Republicans. He conceded, though, that Webb and the DSCC would spend more on ads in the Washington. D.C. market, which broadcasts through vote-rich Northern Virginia counties.
Counting GRPs
"This is more of the same. It's a deliberate attempt by the Webb campaign to inflate their numbers and deflate ours," LaCivita said. "It seems at the Webb campaign is just as bad at writing fiction as their candidate."
According to data provided by the Democratic ad buyer, Allen has reserved only about 320 gross ratings points' worth of spots in Northern Virginia between now and Election Day.
Allen $ Allen Pts Webb $ Webb Pts DC: $255,732 312 GRPs $914,288 1,225 GRPs Norfolk: $114,390 847 GRPs $275,315 2,300 GRPs Richmond: $74,600 995 GRPs $132,315 2,150 GRPs Roanoke: $67,457 1,038 GRPs $165,085 2,450 GRPs Tri: $34,135 495 GRPs $60,967 950 GRPs Harrisonburg: $6,365 138 GRPs NA NA Charlottesville: $8,530 219 GRPs $13,235 400 GRPs
Allen Campaign Claims New Ad Buy
But LaCivita said the campaign had reserved an additional $690K worth of ad time as of last night. A second independent Republican source with access to Virginia advertising data said that the total amount of airtime purchased by Allen "is much higher" than the figures provided by Democrats.
The two Democratic sources insisted they did not detect a new wave of ad buys by Allen's campaign. Last minute buys are often tricky to pull off because the prime television real estate is often occupied. A Webb adviser called the idea of a late Allen buy "very risky."
Evan Tracey, an independent analyst who assessed spending at the Hotline's request, said there "was no advantage to Webb" in the seven day trend when ads aired by the NRSC were added to Allen's total and DSCC ads were appended to Webb's. He did not have data to judge the Webb campaign's contention that it has reserved more ad time over the next five days.
Citing a need to protect last-minute strategy, LaCivita declined to enumerate his campaign's ad purchases. But he said that the Allen campaign, along with ad time bought by the NRSC, is outspending Webb by at least several hundred points in the Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke markets. Last week, the DSCC poured $2.5M into Virginia, and the NRSC reported spending about $1M. A Republican source said that the NRSC had increased its ad buy; a spokesman for the NRSC did not return a call for comment.
Republican sources said that Allen's media team decided to spend proportionately less money for ads on network affiliates in Northern Virginia because they believed the market was supersaturated with ads from Maryland's two competitive races. Instead, Allen has purchased several thousand spots on cable stations reaching targeted audiences in exurban Northern Virginia counties.
According to reports filed with the FEC, Webb has raised more than 3.2 million in October, compared to less than $800K for Allen. For the week ending 10/30, Webb reported to the FEC that he had raised more than $630K, while Allen collected $284K. That's lead to speculation among Democrats that Allen's campaign is nearly broke. LaCivita called the charge "bullshit;" he would not provide an exact number, citing strategic concerns. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted at 05:24 PM
Comments
And? LaCivita needs to get a grip and stop whining about the evil Democrats and some spooky advertising numbers conspiracy.
The real test will be on Tuesday. Allen's Macaca slur and his violent campaign workers are free advertising for Webb. Perhaps LaCivita should spend more time worrying about Allen's violent thugs publicly assualting USMC veterans, and less time whining about who spent the most money on TV.
James Landrith | 11.02.06 09:48 PM
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