November 29, 2006
On The Trail: Hillary's Primary Problem
As the months preceding New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's eventual presidential announcement dwindle to weeks, it's worth exploring just how difficult her path to the Democratic nomination really is. It's tricky to write about her these days, because it seems that everything's been said -- just not everyone has said it. But let's attempt a fresher look.
As the likelihood of a Clinton campaign becomes a reality, more reasons turn up that suggest why she could lose the nomination.
Too many of us have awarded Clinton the '08 nod too soon and too easily. The conventional-wisdom crowd is easily impressed by two things about her candidacy: money and her last name. There's also a dirty little secret that those of us in the media are leery to admit: She's good for business (particularly expense reports).
Take the money and surname drama and add a dash of media anticipation, and you get the simplest explanation of the perceived Clinton juggernaut.
There's one flaw in all of this, though, and that is the electorate. As the likelihood of a Clinton campaign becomes a reality, more reasons turn up that suggest why she could lose the nomination. In fact, the primary may be harder for her than the general election. A bad three-week period at the wrong time in the wrong state could doom a bid, particularly with this front-loaded primary calendar. While the same thing can happen in a general, the same ridiculous scoring of expectations doesn't apply to general elections the way it does in primary battles. [CHUCK TODD]
Posted at 03:37 PM
Comments
Hillary will not get the nomination. Not because of her sex. That is a comma if at all. It's her lack of a position or passion on her end for anything. She blows which way the poll does. She is also too marketed. Too inside the beltway. She puts you to sleep when she gives a speech.
But, I think her biggest problem is what you mentioned at the top. She doesn't inspire love or passion for her as much as she inspired intense dislike. And people just don't trust her. She is too power mad.
There is alot to dislike about her and nothing to recommend her.
Outside the bubble of NY/DC she is not playing well at all
Not to mention on the blogs which hate her. People savage her. Alot of us would never vote for her.
The deadliest thing for a candidate: Easy to hate but, hard to love.
vwcat | 11.29.06 10:20 PM
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If either Gore or Obama enter the race, Hillary is definitely toast.
Ghost of Tom Joad | 11.29.06 11:54 PM
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I agree with Todd that Iowa represents a huge hurdle right out of the gate for Hillary Clinton. Considering how caucus rules work, she could struggle to meet the 15% minimum requirement to get any delegates in some rural precincts. You have to wonder if Vilsack is trying to help fellow DLC member Clinton survive a poor showing in Iowa by preventing Edwards from scoring a huge victory there. Stuck at about 10% in his home state, Vilsack doesn't seem likely to perform well enough there to convince anyone anywhere else to vote for him, so why is he running? To soak up enough of the support to prevent a knockout?
David Williams | 11.30.06 06:53 AM
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Hillary not run? Not on your life! It's in her genes to run for the presidency. It's the unfinished part of "THE PLAN" that she and Bill have been living since their days as governor and first lady of Arkansas and before... .
Hillary's merely biding her time, waiting for her Democrat Party's call to throw her hat into the presidential candidate ring. I can only imagine that her "War Room" is hunkered down, preparing for the main event. When Hillary does become a presidential candidate, it will be to win no matter what! (And George Soros will be at her side, her mentor, her guide.)
Please visit my web site: www.hillnoshesgottogo.com and see my HILL NO! SHE'S GOT TO GO! TM caricature Bobble Head of Hillary. Please join me in spreading the word that Hillary Clinton just has to go!
Dayna Meserve | 11.30.06 02:37 PM
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I hope that you realize, your blog was noting but abusive attacks. You gave no real reason. Your reasons, from what I gather are: She was given the nod too soon. The money issue. And she didn't win Iowa (actually the both came out even there after the recounts, Something about the "clinton juggernaut" What ever that is. This is totally blatant emotional charge. Not suprising, most likely considering that you love obama's pretty speeches. I bet they give you a sense of hope and insipration that you can't come up with on your own.
Darryl Touchet | 03.28.08 12:36 AM
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