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November 05, 2006

Special Sunday Brunch

Here are today's must-read headlines

  • Mason-Dixon/MSNBC/McClatchy Senate Polls: Dems have solid to semi-solid leads in PA and OH (though DeWine's cut it to single digits); Chafee is actually leading in RI (by a point); MT SEN is dead even; McCaskill and Webb have statistically insignificant 1-point leads in MO and VA; Steele's cut Cardin's lead to 3; Kyl's just barely under 50 and leads by 8; Corker (TN), Stabenow (MI) and Cantwell (WA) all have double-digit leads. In other polling in these same races: In NJ, Monmouth Univ. has Menendez up on Kean by just 3 points with more than 10% of folks undecided.

  • Natural Tightening Or Real Closing?: The final ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Pres. Bush and the GOP ticking up just a bit. Dems lead the GOP 53-43 among RVs and 51-45 among LVs, as narrow of a generic ballot as we've seen in weeks. Meanwhile a Time poll claims 52% of Dems say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of GOPers. Finally, in a Newsweek poll, Dems lead the generic by double-digits among LVs, 54-38.

  • The GOP's Mood: While the polls mentioned above should lift GOP spirits, one can't tell it in today's New York Times, at least in regards to the House. GOP pollster Glen Bolger: "It’s the worst political environment for Republican candidates since Watergate." Multiple GOP strategists are quoted either on the record or on background admitting they could lose at least 25-30 House seats. Ex-NRCC Chair/Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA): "There’s no question we’re going to take a hit. The only question is how hard it would be."

  • Who Needs Polls!: The Washington Post's 13th annual Crystal Ball contest is out and it's a tournament of champions, meaning only previous winners were allowed to play this year. The consensus: Dems win the House, GOP holds the Senate.

  • The Hussein Verdict: He's been sentenced to death but all death sentences automatically go to appeal.

  • Does every politician have original sin, even Barack Obama? The Dem golden boy issued a statement of "regret" about his dealings with an "indicted political fundraiser."

  • Turnout Watch: Is the 72-hour program showing some signs of wear and tear? According to one source, the RNC is now having to increase its "volunteer" compensation from $75 a day to $100 a day in certain places in New England (Hotline). ... Here are some exerpts from a Family Research Council GOTV email sent yesterday: "Two days remain before Election Day. America's Pastors hold the keys to Tuesday's elections. Thousands of founding era election sermons testify to the Biblical responsibility that motivated pastors to prepare their flocks to vote. .. May God pour out his Spirit upon America's Pastors! May their powerful Election Sermons stir voters to elect God-fearing leaders who will restore righteousness in government and public policy! (Ex 18:21; Lev 10:8-10)."

  • The Stumpers: Ex-Pres. Clinton is stumping in MD on Sunday night for both major Dem nominees, Ben Cardin and Martin O'Malley. He's in NY 24 on Monday for Mike Arcuri. ... Barack Obama is in Nashville for Harold Ford at lunchtime today. ... On Monday, John McCain begins his day in TN for Bob Corker, flies to FL for a Charlie Crist rally and then heads west to NM 01 for Heather Wilson.

  • Crossing Our Transom: What impact will there be Tuesday on the results due to the number of inexperienced campaign managers (particularly on the GOP side) who are finding themselves in difficult races?

  • AZ SEN: Perhaps it is good news for Dem Jim Pederson that Republicans are worried enough to file an FEC complaint over what they claim is a "money laundering" scheme involving Pederson and the state party.

  • VA SEN: Sen. George Allen (R) will close out his campaign with one more 2-minute TV ad, his third such 2-min. of ad of the cycle.

  • FL GOV: The Palm Beach Posthas internal numbers from both parties which give Charlie Crist a lead of 5-8 points over Jim Davis. However, a new Miami Herald/Zogby poll has Crist up 10.

  • IA GOV: The final Des Moines Register poll shows Dem Chet Culver leading GOP Rep. Jim Nussle by nine points. More importantly, Culver is over 50%.

  • MI GOV: According to the final Detroit Free Press poll, Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) has opened up a double-digit lead over GOPer Dick DeVos, her largest lead of the campaign.

  • House Polls: The DCCC is touting news polls in IA 01 (Braley up double-digits) and FL 22 (Klein with largest lead in any public poll yet).


Posted at 09:53 AM

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