November 02, 2006
Tea Leaf Watch: Five Days Out!
1. Reuters/Zogby has Dems up in six of the seven competitive races; they have Corker (R) leading Ford (D) in TN by ten points. It also has Tester (D) leading Burns (R) by a point. In TN, btw, we're told that the GOP internal track has Corker up two. (Hotline). Here's the Times-CBS poll.
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2. The DSCC's Schumer holds a pen and pad to announce that the party is snapping up all available ad time in can find in AZ.
Why AZ? Here'a a memo from pollsters Paul Harstad and Chris Keating the DSCC will release today: "According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents." (Hotline)
3. Tomorrow, Pres. Bush visits the Topeka-based district of Rep. Jim Ryun (R-KS). As of early this week, an NRCC poll showed Ryun down 2 points to Dem Nancy Boyda. (Hotline) Bush will visit NE 03 on 11/5 (Lincoln Journal Star); and "tentatively" Pensacola on 11/6 (Pensacola News Journal).
4. Charlie Cook: "For those who were not paying close attention to politics in 1994 or whose focus was on a single state or district, the concept of a 'wave election' is foreign and is radically different from the "all politics is local" elections of 1996-2004. For others whose sympathies lie with Republicans, it is difficult to deal with the possibility, or growing probability, of a profound rejection of their party -- that Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman could actually lose an election. For diehard Democrats, who are s so used to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, they are having a hard time seeing their party actually win a majority in the House for the first time in five elections."
Posted at 09:18 AM
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