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November 02, 2006

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

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1. Sweeney Says: Rep. John Sweeney (R) and his wife, Gaia, confirmed State Police responded to a 9/11 call to their home in 12/05 for an undisclosed domestic disturbance. Yet "they dispute the full accuracy of an alleged police document" leaked to several news organizations. G. Sweeney said in the document that Sweeney was "knocking her around."

Although G. Sweeney called the police report "untrue," she did not say which details were false. G. Sweeney: "The evening in question was a very difficult time for our family... the pressure of the yearlong public scrutiny reached its breaking point and so had I." Regardless, she said she "did not need to be protected from John" and called the report the press received "untrue." Sweeney: "There was no domestic violence, and, like my wife, I call on the State Police to release the true report" (Albany Times Union)

2. Yo, Adrian: Pres. Bush's visiting NE 11/4 "to try to help" GOPers "save an endangered House seat they've held for 48 years." Bush will stump for state Sen. Adrian Smith (R) in either Grand Island or Kearney. The visit was "arranged in the wake of polling last week showing" rancher Scott Kleeb (D) "moving within reach" of Dems' first NE 03 win since '58. Smith believes it will "absolutely" help him in a CD that's "overwhelmingly Republican and still, in his view, strongly supportive of Bush" (Lincoln Journal-Star).

3. Give 'Em Heller!: In NV 02, a Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 10/26-30 for the Las Vegas Journal-Review; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 11/2). Tested: Sec/State Dean Heller (R) and NV University Regent Jill Derby (D).

General Election Matchup Heller 47% Derby 39 Other/undec 14

4. When 7 Points Isn't 7 Points: In NV 03, a Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 10/26-30 for the Las Vegas Journal-Review; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 11/2). Tested: Rep. Jon Porter (R) and ex-cong. aide Tessa Hafen (D). 

General Election Matchup
                 All Ind
Porter           46% 38%
Hafen            39  35
Other/undec      15  27

Mason-Dixon's Brad Coker called independents "the key to this district that is just about evenly split between" Dems and GOPers. What's more, he said he "wouldn't focus as much on Porter's 7-point spread" as he would on undecided indies. Coker: "The undecided tend to break for an incumbent's opponent" (Las Vegas Journal).

5. Donnelly Hopes His 50 Really Means 50+1 In IN 02, a Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/30-31 for the South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 11/1). Tested: Rep. Chris Chocola (R) and '04 nom. Joe Donnelly (D). 

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav
             Now 10/17 9/17 7/23    Donnelly     49%/40%  50%/38%
Donnelly     50%  50%  50%  46%     Chocola      48 /46   49 /46
Chocola      47   45   42   41
Other/undec   3    5    8   13

Posted at 05:00 PM

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