November 02, 2006
The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates
A daily update of ads, polls, trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.
Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors
1. Even More NRSC Help?: The NRSC paid $884,730 to Smart Media Group for ad buys attacking Rep. Ben Cardin (D). (FEC)
2. Polling Matters: New polls show ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R), Sen. Bob Menendez (D), and ex-AG Sheldon Whitehouse (D) up by double digits but Sen. George Allen (R) and State Sen. Pres. Jon Tester (D) just up by one.
Ford Falling Back That Fast in TN?: A Zogby Int'l poll; conducted 10/24-30; surveyed 603 LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 11/2). Tested: Rep. Harold Ford (D) and ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R). Party ID breakdown: 33%D, 40%R, 27%I/O.
General Election Matchup Fav/Unfav Corker 53% Corker 57%/32% Ford 43 Ford 50 /39 Other/undec 4
Just Too Many NJ Dems?: A Rutgers-Eagleton poll; conducted 10/29-31; surveyed 695 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 11/2). Subsample of 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4%. Tested: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and State Sen. Tom Kean (R).
General Election Matchup
LVs RVs Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Nor Cen Sou 9/06 6/06 3/06
Menendez 46% 46% 84% 8% 38% 47% 44% 48% 40% 48% 45% 42% 40%
Kean 42 37 6 84 47 44 40 37 52 42 44 38 35
Other/undec 12 17 10 8 15 9 16 15 8 10 11 20 25
Fav/Unfav LVs RVs Most Important Issue To Your Vote?
Kean 40%/34% 32%/29% War in Iraq/on terror 18%
Menendez 34 /42 29 /36 Morals/ethics 14
Property taxes 11
Bush As Pres. LVs RVs 9/06 Taxes/reform 8
Approve 36% 33% 32% Economy/jobs 5
Disapprove 60 62 60
The People Love Him In RI, They Just Don't Want Him In DC?: A Zogby Int'l poll; conducted 10/24-30; surveyed 601 LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 11/2). Tested: Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) and ex-AG Sheldon Whitehouse (D). Party ID breakdown: 32%D, 23%R, 45%I/O.
General Election Matchup Fav/Unfav Whitehouse 53% Chafee 61%/34% Chafee 39 Whitehouse 59 /31 Other/undec 8 Does Chafee Deserve Re-Elect? Yes, re-elect 36% No, someone new 54
Can Tester Break The 47% Ceiling in MT? (Re-Elect Number Says Yes): A Zogby Int'l poll; conducted 10/24-30; surveyed 602 LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 11/2). Tested: Sen. Conrad Burns (R), State Sen. Pres. Jon Tester (D) and Stan Jones (L). Party ID breakdown: 32%D, 39%R, 29%I/O.
General Election Matchup Fav/Unfav Tester 47% Tester 57%/35% Burns 46 Burns 51 /45 Jones 2 Jones 6 /11 Other/undec 5 Does Burns Deserve Re-Election? Yes, re-elect 37% No, someone new 54
Closest VA Poll Lately, But Check Out Allen's Favs (Or Lack Thereof): A Zogby Int'l poll; conducted 10/24-30; surveyed 602 LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 11/2). Tested: Sen. George Allen (R) and ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D). Party ID breakdown: 35%D, 39%R, 26%I/O.
General Election Matchup Fav/Unfav Webb 45% Webb 51%/32% Allen 44 Allen 46 /46 Other/undec 11 Does Allen Deserve Re-Elect? Yes, re-elect 40% No, someone new 54Posted at 01:33 PM
Comments
The text states that Allen is in the lead when Webb is actually in the lead.
Anton | 11.02.06 01:40 PM
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It looks like control of the Senate may be in the hands of that noted Republican comedy team of Burns and Allen.
Say Good Night, Gracie!
Andrew | 11.02.06 01:45 PM
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Guys
Do you folks need a copy editor, or is it just the inherent bias that you folks have.
Zogby has Allen down 1, not up - i agree its only a point but you guys decided to put Allen ahead in the initial description (even though you have the correct numbers down in the bottom - as we all know most people just read the headlines and maybe the initial description) ... so maybe you should change the initial descriptions. On the other hand if you've decided that shilling for the GOP is the way to make your fortune - well just come out and put it in your headlines like Mark Halperin did on Hannity !!
Do_do | 11.02.06 02:22 PM
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Guys
Do you folks need a copy editor, or is it just the inherent bias that you folks have.
Zogby has Allen down 1, not up - i agree its only a point but you guys decided to put Allen ahead in the initial description (even though you have the correct numbers down in the bottom - as we all know most people just read the headlines and maybe the initial description) ... so maybe you should change the initial descriptions. On the other hand if you've decided that shilling for the GOP is the way to make your fortune - well just come out and put it in your headlines like Mark Halperin did on Hannity !!
Do_do | 11.02.06 02:22 PM
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