December 30, 2006
Doug Bailey Remembers Gerald Ford
Hotline founder Doug Bailey was part of Gerald Ford's campaign inner-circle in the '76 general election campaign that saw Ford make a near-miraculous comeback from 31 points down. We've asked Bailey to pen his remembrances of Ford.
John Deardourff and I prepared the general election advertising for President Ford in 1976. It was the easiest job we ever had.
Imagine the luxury of a political consultant whose client (1) is President of the United States but had never run for anything bigger than a congressional district in Grand Rapids – and (2) is an honest, candid, simple, straight-forward, believable guy.
America had a president it didn’t know, so our job was to introduce the people to their president, his wife, their children – who they were, where they came from, what they were like. And to do so in a compelling way, all we really had to do was part the curtains and let Jerry Ford be Jerry Ford. He would never have allowed us to make him be anyone else anyway. He was who he was.
Some found him less than a scintillating intellect, even though he knew more about how government works (and the budget, for example) than any president before or since.
But all found him authentic. You watched him and listened to him and you felt you knew the man. He was the anti-Nixon. He inspired the confidence that you knew him. And I can assure you he was exactly the same man with the camera on or off. For good or bad, what you saw was what you got. And after Nixon, that was a treat.
With all the media talk about how the pardon may have cost him the election (it probably did, but it was the right thing to do, and he did it because it was the right thing to do), it’s worth remembering all in the minds of voters in 1976.
That election came after eleven years of downward spiral for the American spirit: the assassinations of JFK, Bobby, and Martin Luther King; the civil rights riots that followed; Vietnam (with 59,000 Americans dead); the resignation in disgrace of a Vice-President; Watergate; and the resignation in disgrace of a President.
And yet by the end of the campaign much of the country was singing “I’m feeling good about America.” The reason was this wonderfully simple and calm and decent and honest man, who gave us reason to hope again.
Maybe it’s time we go looking again for another president who doesn’t crave the job! [DOUG BAILEY]
Posted 12.30.06 08:28 AM | Comments (0)
Holiday Big Numbers: 1st Or 4th
Polling firms, it seems, don’t even take the holidays off. Two new polls this week examine the Presidential primary fields, and for one front-runner, the news is decidedly mixed.
That front-runner is Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), who stands, depending on which poll you believe, in first place among likely Democratic caucus goers, or in fourth among the same group. A poll out this week from ARG, a NH-based firm who doesn't regularly polls IA Dems and who has done work for Republican candidates in the past, shows Clinton with 31% of the vote, besting ex-Sen. John Edwards’ (D-NC) 20%, the 17% who prefer IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) and 10% who say they want Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). The poll was conducted 12/19-23 and surveyed 600 likely caucus-goers.
FWIW, there's not an Iowa Dem Caucus poll we have heard about, public or private, that has had Clinton in first.
Meanwhile, a poll for KCCI-TV by Research 2000 released 12/21, shows the same top four candidates, but in a very different order. Edwards and Obama each command 22% of the vote, with Vilsack at 12% and Clinton trailing the pack at 10%. That poll interviewed 400 likely caucus-goers.
The Republican side of the two IA polls shows the two front-runners, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) splitting leads, though both are within the margin of error. KCCI and R2K have McCain up 27% to 26%, while ARG has Giuliani up 28% to 26%. The ARG poll shows McCain leading big among independents while Giuliani has a large lead among Republicans.
Big differences between the two GOP polls come in runners-up. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) clocks in with 18% in the ARG poll, while MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) tie in fourth place with 6%. The KCCI poll has Romney with 9% in third place and Gingrich with 7%. In that survey, Hagel didn’t even make the cut on the questionnaire. [REID WILSON].
Posted 12.30.06 08:21 AM | Comments (0)
December 25, 2006
Census Data Shows Florida's Gain Is New York's Pain
The new Census Bureau 2006 state population estimates are out and the numbers offer some insight into the post-2010 Census reapportionment of congressional seats. While it’s still too early to predict exactly which states are gainers and losers, a few things are already clear.
According to an analysis by Polidata, a political data consulting firm, seven states are all but certain to lose at least one seat: Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Another six states are all but certain to gain at least one seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas and Utah.
A few other interesting projections from Polidata: Texas could pick up as many as 4 congressional seats; New York and Ohio could lose 2 seats. California, for the first time since statehood, may not pick up any seats.
Polidata’s Clark Bensen also observes that Florida (currently with 25 seats) is now poised to replace New York (29 seats) as the third most populous state – and that both states might end up with 27-member delegations when the dust settles after reapportionment.
Sixty years ago, no one would have believed that Florida and New York might one day have House delegations of equal size. In the 1940s, the New York delegation was a 45-member congressional powerhouse while Florida was a puny 6-seat weakling. But between 1942 and 2002, Florida gained 19 seats while New York lost 16.
Much of Florida’s surge in congressional clout has been carved directly out of New York’s hide; out-migration from New York to Florida has been a prime contributor to Florida’s growth. The 2000 Census revealed that, between 1995 and 2000 alone, 308,000 people moved from New York to Florida – the largest state-to-state flow in the U.S. At last count, nearly 1.5 million Floridians were born in New York, including five members from Florida’s current House delegation. Two are Democrats born in Queens: Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Robert Wexler. The three Republicans were born outside New York City: Ginny Brown-Waite was born in Albany, John Mica in Binghamton and Dave Weldon in Amityville.
Among the New York five, Brown-Waite (who is a former New York state Senate staffer) ranks as an aberration. She represents a Gulf Coast-side district located just north of Tampa, while the other four represent districts on Florida’s Atlantic Ocean side. Traditionally, the Gulf Coast has been a haven for Midwesterners – they took Interstate 75 south to Florida for vacation and later resettled close to that familiar corridor. Until recently New Yorkers (and other East Coasters) tended to follow a different path, settling on the Atlantic Coast along I-95, in places like Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]
Posted 12.25.06 04:01 PM | Comments (0)
December 24, 2006
The Big First
The 2006 election was one Kansas Republicans would like to forget. At the statewide level, Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius easily won reelection, former state GOP chairman Mark Parkinson switched parties and ran on her ticket as lieutenant governor, and GOP Attorney General Phill Kline was defeated. In Congress, Republican Jim Ryun lost his bid for a sixth term while perennially endangered Democrat Dennis Moore scored a career-high 65 percent victory.
In Western Kansas, however, Republican Congressman Jerry Moran won a 79 percent landslide. How did he manage to do so well while his party colleagues floundered? Maybe it’s the annual “Big First Listening Tour”. Every year since his election to Congress in 1996, Moran has made it his mission to schedule events in each of the 69 counties in his very big 1st Congressional District. This is no simple task: At 57,576 square miles in size, his district is roughly the size of Illinois. It runs 350 miles east from the Colorado border, about the distance from New York City to Richmond, Virginia.
Moran is already well into his eleventh annual tour – in response to the uncertainty of a new congressional voting schedule, Moran began his 2007 listening tour in early December. After a brief Christmas break, he’s scheduled to visit three counties on December 27th (including the Hungry Hunter restaurant in Lincoln County), four counties on the 28th (including the Swedish-American State Bank in Republic County), and four more counties before the end of the year. No events are scheduled for New Year’s Day, but Moran’s got six more counties squeezed in before the 110th Congress convenes on January 4. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]
Posted 12.24.06 03:01 PM | Comments (0)
Edwards “Big Decision”
In a note to his e-mail list entitled "The big decision," John Edwards asked his internet community Saturday to rally for his all-but-announced campaign. Supporters are asked to e-mail Edwards at a new domain -- "changeforamerica.com" -- instead of the address he's been using for the past few years, OneAmericaCommittee.com.
The Web site for Ready To Change America includes a "town hall" style tour schedule across the presidential primary states. Edwards will head to Des Moines, IA, on 12/28, Portsmouth, NH and Reno, NV on 12/29, West Columbia, SC and Chapel Hill, NC on 12/30. Although many of those events were already publicized by local state parties, this is the first attributed announcement that links all the appearances together.
Some excerpts from Edwards "big decision" e-mail:
"Now, we have a big decision to make -- and I do mean we. I'm getting ready to take this effort to the next level - to bring Americans together in all fifty states to tackle the big challenges facing our country, from poverty and lack of health care, to energy and global warming..."But this is our effort, and we can only succeed if we're all in it together. So before I make a final decision, I need to hear from you: Are you ready? If you're ready to take this to the next level, and launch a renewed national effort to change America, send me a note and let me know: JohnEdwards@readytochangeamerica.com...
"I can't promise you where this will ultimately lead. But I can promise you this: if you're on board, we'll launch a renewed commitment to change our country from the bottom up... Stay tuned: I'll let you know what we decide early next week."
Posted 12.24.06 03:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 21, 2006
Spotlight: 'Twas The Night Before...
'Twas the week before '07, and all through DC, Democrats were stirring. How could they not be?
Top staffers announced by '08ers with care, in hopes that the benjamins soon would be there.
Rahm and Schumer were nestled all snug in new power, while Reid and Pelosi prepared their first 100 hours.
And HRC in her 'kerchief, and Edwards in his cap, took a long, hard look at the electoral map.
When out in the '08 field there arose such a clatter, Bill sprang from his bed to see what was the matter. When, what to the president's eyes should appear, but the junior Obama's political premiere!
First, Warner! Then, Allen! Now, Frist, even Evan! Who'll run? Richardson, Kerry, Dodd, and Joe Biden?
To the top of White Mountain, to Iowa Falls! Now dash away, dash away, dash away all! Barack's eyes, how they twinkled! His smile, how merry! Who else could bring a sell-out crowd to NH's Derry?
And we heard him exclaim as he sped out of sight, Happy Holidays to all, see you on caucus night!
Posted 12.21.06 04:30 PM | Comments (0)
On The Download: College Conservatives By The Facebook
Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.
If Facebook was originally intended for college students, and universities typically lean left-of-center, one might surmise that it's lonely for college conservatives on the social networking site.
But a state-by-state analysis of College Democrats and Republicans on Facebook proved otherwise. There were almost an equal number of organized College Dems and Republicans groups. And of the 66 College groups listed for all 50 states and D.C. (Out of 102, 36 states didn't have a CR or CD), College Republican groups had 70 more people on average than College Democrats.
That difference was in no small part because of the Missouri College Republicans group, which is the largest of its kind in the U.S. with almost 3,000 members. New York College Democrats is the second largest group with 1,100 members.
MO CR's had an active recruitment effort for 2006 on Facebook under outgoing chair Justin Smith. Smith said he increased his Facebook group's membership by personally identifying 8,000 College Republicans in the state since last August.
"The trend I saw was that there were many Republicans and conservatives on college campuses, you just have to go find them," he said.
To find potential members, the Missouri College Republicans team meticulously searched for conservative rhetoric on students' profiles, for example searching by political affiliation and looking for quotes by famous Republicans.
Though only about 1/3 of these students joined the statewide facebook group, the effort yielded a large list of conservative-leaning students by college. Smith's group ended up giving out that list to almost half the universities in the state for on campus recruitment this past fall [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Before you check out the Republican guide to facebook, a few bytes:
*Human Events reports Frist's former internet director for VOLPAC Stephen Smith will lead Mitt Romney's online communications team.
*Kingston communications director David All is leaving the Georgia Congressman's office to start his own online strategy firm, David All Group.
*Jerome Armstrong answers questions on Personal Democracy Forum about his time with Warner's Forward Together PAC.
*Family Research Council announced its annual "Blogs4Life" conference in January.
*Lefty ProgressNow has an online video on their year in Colorado politics.
White House 2008 Republicans Guide to Facebook
Sam Brownback's unofficial but notable group: Brownback for President/StudentsforBrownback.org (894 members).
Newt Gingrich's self-described "The Official Newt Gingrich Facebook Group" (115 members), with Gingrich himself listed as an administrator. Gingrich also has his own profile. Unofficial but notable group: "Newt Gingrich for President in 2008" (391 members).
Rudy Giuliani's unofficial but notable groups: "Rudy Giuliani for President in 2008" (998 members), "RUDY GIULIANI '08" (668 members), "Giuliani for President '08!" (660 members) and "Rudy Giuliani for President" (585 members).
Chuck Hagel's unofficial but notable "Chuck Hagel for President 2008" (84 members).
Mike Huckabee's unofficial but notable "Mike Huckabee in 08" (364 members).
John McCain's unofficial but notable groups: "John McCain in 2008!" (1322 members) and "Students for McCain" (1293 members).
George Pataki's unofficial but notable "George Pataki for President 2008" (51 members).
Mitt Romney's unofficial but notable: "Romney 2008" (2,298 members), "College Students For Mitt Romney" (130 members), Mitt Romney for President (257 members),
Tom Tancredo's official Facebook "Election 2006" Profile. Unofficial but notable: "Students for Tancredo" (226 members).
with [TINA SALVATO].
Posted 12.21.06 03:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Naughty Or Nice?
The Hotline received the following holiday card from Americans for Tax Reform (well, from Grover. G. Norquist and the Staff of Americans for Tax Reform):
And On The Inside, a list of who's "naughty" vs. who's "nice."
ATR's scale to keep in mind:
* Democrat Taxpayer Protection Pledge Signer
# GOP Non Taxpayer Protection Pledge Signer
$ Tax Increase Advocate
+ Flat Tax
^ Tax Cutter
NAUGHTY
Governor Corzine $
Governor Lingle $
Governor Huckabee $
Governor Kaine $
Governor Vilsack $
Governor Graholm $
Governor Kulongoski $
Governor Baldacci $
Governor Pawlenty $
Governor Easley $
Governor Owens $
Governor Daniels $
Senator Richard Lugar #
Senator Charles Grassley #
Senator Olympia Snowe #
Senator Susan Collins #
Senator Thad Cochran #
Senator Pete Domenici #
Senator George Voinovich #
Congressman Chris Shays #
Congressman Michael Castle #
Congressman Steve Buyer #
Congressman Harold Rogers #
Congressman Vernon Ehlers #
Congressman Ralph Regula #
Congressman Todd Platts #
Congressman Frank Wolf #
NICE
President George W. Bush ^
Secretary Elaine L. Chao
Congressman Mike Pence ^
Congressman Eric Cantor ^
Congressman John Shadegg ^
All 1623 Signers Of The Pledge
Governor Carcieri ^
Governor Barbour ^
Governor Sanford ^
Governor Bush ^
The ATR Staff
Governor Perry ^
Ireland
Lithuania +
Latvia +
Senator Ben Nelson *
Congressman Gene Taylor *
Conressman Robert Andrews *
Congressman Ben Chandler *
Congressman Brad Ellsworth *
Posted 12.21.06 03:30 PM | Comments (0)
Today On Hotline TV: The Happy Holidays Episode
Today, we give you the best political news of the year. From the most overhyped to the least-watched... stories to reminice about during the holidays.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Posted 12.21.06 03:15 PM | Comments (0)
The Hotline's Catchiest Carols
To Capitol Hill I Go
(to the tune of "To Grandmother's House We Go")
I'm a big giver
And they get the goods:
To Capitol Hill I go.
For red and blue
The green gets through
To Capitol Shills I know.
Out-of-state earmarks
For out-of-state sharks
All done for the folks back home.
A protection game
By any name
Right under, rotunda, the Dome.
It's House Speaker Pelosi
(to the tune of "Dominick the Donkey")
Hey chingedy ching (he haw he haw) it's House Speaker Pelosi
chingedy ching (he haw he haw) the Italian Speaker Pelosi.
(la la la-la la-la la la la la)
(la la la-la la-la la-ee-oh-da)
Murtha's got a little friend,
her name is Nancy P.
The cutest little donkey,
You never see her kick.
But when she visits her paisons,
With orders she will be.
Because the Democrats cannot win without unity.
Hey chingedy ching (he haw he haw) it's House Speaker Pelosi
chingedy ching (he haw he haw) the Italian Speaker Pelosi.
(la la la-la la-la la la la la)
(la la la-la la-la la-ee-oh-da)
She's from San Francisco,
With chocolates on her desk.
Hey! Look at the mayor's daughter
On top of Democrats' nest.
A power suit from Armani
And a smile you can't ignore
The label on the inside
Says she came from Baltimore.
Hey chingedy ching (he haw he haw) it's House Speaker Pelosi
chingedy ching (he haw he haw) the Italian Speaker Pelosi.
(la la la-la la-la la la la la)
(la la la-la la-la la-ee-oh-da)
Liberals sing and clap their hands
And Pelosi starts to dance.
She'll hold the Speaker's gavel
As Democrats get their chance.
Republicans sob, and shake their heads
And gear up for '08
While President Bush finds a woman in charge
And says, "Oh gee, that's great."
Hey chingedy ching (he haw he haw) it's House Speaker Pelosi
chingedy ching (he haw he haw) the Italian Speaker Pelosi.
(la la la-la la-la la la la la)
(la la la-la la-la la-ee-oh-da)
Hey! Pelosi! Buona natale!
The Mormon Song
(to tune of Adam Sandler's "Hanukkah Song")
Break out the Golden Plate, here comes 2008.
So fun to guess the fate of our favorite Mormon candidate.
Mitt Romney has been a Mormon all his life.
And unlike Giuliani and McCain, he's only had one wife.
When you think like pundits in town who think it can't be done,
Here's a list of people who are Mormon, Mitt's not the only one.
Harry Reid's a Dem who'll lead the U.S. Senate,
And then there are Republicans Orrin Hatch and Robert Ben-nett.
Guess who eats together when Congress is in session,
Senator Mike Crapo, and Congressman Mike Simpson
George Allen's part Jewish; and he won't run in '08,
Romney lost a foe because of Macaca-gate.
Now on the war on terror, Mitt Romney won't be soft,
and he can form a Cabinet with
Chris Cannon and Brent Scowcroft -- (both Mormon)
So break out the Golden Plate, here comes 2008
If you go to see Salt Lake, the Marriot sure is great.
O.J. Simpson -- not a Mormon,
But guess who is, Governor Jon Huntsman.
Romney's got a plan to make it to the fall,
And if he does, he'll do better than Mo Udall.
You may be convinced that it's not that tough a fight
If Mitt gets help from the star of Napoleon Dynamite!
Not many Mormons are in the news biz --
Larry King isn't, but did you know that his wife is?
Go tell Gordon Hinkley, '08 will be here quickly,
McCain hopes that he'll face Hillary, but hey may not be the nominee.
So stay away from coffee, and better not drink whiskey
Cause maybe soon we all might see,
a Republican President named Mitt Romney.
Posted 12.21.06 02:15 PM | Comments (0)
Draft Obama Now A PAC
Draft Obama changed its status late this morning from 527 to non-connected PAC after a senior adviser to the organization sought counsel from the FEC, which will now take from the IRS the regulatory authority over the committee.
The group had been reported on Monday as "not a political organization," but the adviser contacted the IRS last week, and an official there said it should be "operating as a 527."
"We are completely following the law, 100 percent," the adviser said, adding that the group has had no contact with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), his staff or his team.
If an organization is to become a PAC, it has within 10 days of raising its first $1000 to file with FEC, and Draft Obama says it has followed procedures correctly. An online donations page was added to DraftObama.org just this Saturday, and the organization held a fundraiser at Local 16 on Tuesday night charging $25 per person. [ERIN MCPIKE]
Posted 12.21.06 01:45 PM | Comments (0)
The Year In Politics: News You Can't Lose
FoleyCacaSwingVoter, And The Veep Shoots A Guy In The Face
Now, the highlights of your year in politics:
Posted 12.21.06 01:00 PM | Comments (0)
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites
Capitol Fax -- Greens Respond To Froehlich
JohnCombest.com -- CDT Politics Blog: Democrats Might Be Key In Stem Cell's Second Round
NhNewslinks.com -- Granite Status: Big Names Seek State GOP, Dem Posts
Quorum Report -- SELBY: Travis Republicans Look For Better Luck In '08
Sayfie's Review -- AP: Jennings Presses Election Challenge In Congress And The Courts
WisPolitics.com -- Mad City Soap Box: Who Was The Top Political Newsmaker Of 2006?
Posted 12.21.06 12:20 PM | Comments (0)
THIS is What The Heck That Was
After yesterday's post, "We don't know what the heck this is," we have an answer...
From: Draft Richardson Nevada [mailto:draft.richardson.nevada@gmail.com]
Sent: Thu 12/21/2006 8:00 AM
To: draft.richardson.nevada@gmail.com
Subject: RELEASE: NEVADANS CALL FOR RICHARDSON CANDIDACY
NEVADANS CALL FOR RICHARDSON CANDIDACY
Form "Draft Richardson Committee"
Las Vegas , NV— Seventy prominent Nevadans called on New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson today to seek the Presidency in 2008.
"Nevada will be a lynch-pin in the Democratic Presidential nomination process in 2008 and many Nevadans believe Bill Richardson is the best choice to lead our party", stated "Draft Committee" Chairman Reynaldo Martinez, a resident of Incline Village, and former chief of staff to U.S. Senator Harry Reid. Earlier this year the Democratic National Committee (DNC) designated Nevada to be the second state to hold a nomination contest on January 19, 2008 following Iowa (caucus) January 14 and before New Hampshire (primary) January 22, and South Carolina (primary) January 29. Nevada will be a "caucus" state and the State Democratic Party will sponsor and organize the state-wide event. Martinez added, "Bill Richardson is the Favorite-Son of the West, and the West beginning with Nevada can lead the Democrats to the White House in 2008."
Joining Martinez as Co-Chairs of the "Draft Committee" are Hannah Irsfeld of Las Vegas, Judge John F. Mendoza of Las Vegas and Robert McGowan of Reno. Other notable Nevadans calling for Richardson to run include; Carlos Blumberg (Las Vegas), Jeff Taguchi (Las Vegas), John Henry Brebbia (Las Vegas), Dr. R.D. Prabhu (Las Vegas), Horacio Lopez (Las Vegas), Vicki Hulbert (N. Las Vegas), Lee Wastell (Las Vegas), Don Ellis (Henderson), Kim Ellis (Henderson), Eva Garcia (Las Vegas), John Medina (N. Las Vegas), Jose G. Troncoso (Las Vegas), Holly Johnson Troncoso (Las Vegas), Robert Agonia (Las Vegas), Larry Mason (Las Vegas), Marcelo Napoli (Las Vegas), Dr. Rene Cantu (Henderson), Dr. Letitia Medina Worth (Las Vegas), Dr. Lata Shete (Las Vegas), George T. Lopez (Las Vegas), Michael Pariente (Las Vegas), Sandy Ellis (Henderson), Bob Ellis (Henderson), Curtis Anderson (Las Vegas), Dr. Agustin Orci (Las Vegas), Alejandro Alverez (Las Vegas), Sylvia Lazos (Las Vegas), Pat Hodges (Las Vegas), Gloria Martinez Ferree (Henderson), Hugh Ferree (Las Vegas), Mary Geidlel (Las Vegas), Xavier Rivas (Las Vegas), Ismael and Monica Sanchez (Las Vegas), Linda Smith (Las Vegas), Troy Wade (Las Vegas), Fernando Romero (Las Vegas), Earl and Susan Greene (Las Vegas), James E. Rogers (Las Vegas), Harlane and Racquel Sumida (Henderson), Maria Sefchick (Reno), Marino De La Rosa (Reno), Geralda Miller (Reno), Rosemary Flores (Henderson), Vito De La Cruz (Reno), Gus Ramos (Las Vegas), Dr. Raquel Casas (Las Vegas), Lonnie Feemster (Sparks), Luisa Mendoza (Las Vegas), Mario Castro (Las Vegas), Miguel Castro (Las Vegas), Javier Trujillo (Las Vegas), Michael Reed (Reno), Theresa Navarro (Reno), Sherri Overstreet (Reno), Chris and Julie Wedge (Reno), Frederico Bannelos (Carson City), Rita McGeary (Reno), Luis and Emma Guzman (Sparks), Steve Heslop (Sparks), William Thorton (Reno), and Diane Sauer Martinez (Incline Village). The group includes African Americans, Hispanics, Asian Americans, significant Democratic Party activists and environmentalists. (release).
Posted 12.21.06 11:45 AM | Comments (1)
Romney Takes Two
Beset by questions about his committment to social conservatism, Gov. Mitt Romney today adds two validators to his team.
Gary Marx, the current exec. dir of the Judicial Confirmation Network and formerly the Bush-Cheney campaign's chief staff liaison to social conservatives, will join Gov. Mitt Romney's PAC as an adviser, a Romney aide said.
If Romney runs for pres, Marx, along with Romney aide Peter Flaherty, will be in charge of outreach to the Republican base and will advise Romney on his contacts with them. Marx is a vet of Focus on the Family's VA affiliate and has also worked with Ralph Reed when Reed hung his shingle at Century Strategies.
Also, Jay Sekulow, a constitutional lawyer who's argued numerous cases of import to social conservatives before the Supreme Court, has endorsed Romney and will serve as an adviser. Sekulow is chief counsel for the American Center for Law and Justice, although his endorsement does not mean that the organization is partial to Romney. Sekulow is close to Karl Rove and to virtually every conservative judicial luminary in the country. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 12.21.06 10:50 AM | Comments (0)
Hotline After Dark -- Setting The Sun On '06
Last night's TV mainly concentrated on Pres. Bush's 12/20 presser and Iraq.
FNC's Baier: "Setting the tone for his speech about the new way forward in Iraq, soon after the knew year, President Bush conceded in an hour long news conference 2006 was a difficult year for U.S. troops and the Iraqi people. While the president said insurgents were successful in sparking sectarian
violence, setting back reconstruction and preventing stability, he added the U.S. enters the new year, quote clear eyed about the challenges ahead" ("Special Report," 12/20).
MSNBC's Shuster: "In the face of the tough news coming out of Iraq, President Bush today tried to take control of the storyline by underscoring his resolve and confidence. ... In his last scheduled news conference of the year, President Bush today played the role of cheerleader in chief" ("Hardball," 12/20).
CNN's J. King, on Bush: "He is in a tough box, because he's not ready to answer the big questions right now: Will he send in more troops? Will he establish benchmarks for getting the troops out? He's not ready for that. Look for that in the first week of January" ("AC 360," 12/20).
New Republic's Crowley: "There's something very unsettling about what we're starting to hear from Bush. For so long, his mantra was that he was taking his lead from the commanders on the ground, and that was this ... ultimate card he could play of credibility. ... You thought things couldn't get worse, and now you have a situation where, gosh, he's overruling the people who really do seem to know best. And we're sort of in uncharted territory here, if you ask me" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/20).
Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI): "I don't support the surge. I think it would be a mistake to get in deeper into Iraq. When General Abizaid was in front of us, he didn't support the reductions which we were proposing in our forces in Iraq. But he also very strongly opposed increasing the number of forces in Iraq because he basically said that would take the pressure off the Iraqis to reach a political settlement" ("Situation Room," CNN, 12/20).
NBC's Miklaszewski, asked if the American public will support a surge in troop levels in Baghdad: "I think it would be a very tough sell politically and the U.S. military would have to be clearly on board before the public is going to buy that argument" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/20).
AN INSIDE VIEW
There was also much discussion on Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) 12/20 appearance on "The View."
HRC, asked if she would support Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) if she decides not to run for WH '08: "Well, you know, I'm just going to wait and see how all this develops, you know?"
On Obama: "He is a terrific guy. And we're going to have a lot of good people running in the Democratic primary, and I think that's exciting because in most elections, you know, it was kind of expected somebody on one side or the other was going to be the nominee and maybe the likely winner. This time, that's all thrown up. And I think that's good. I think everybody who wants to compete should compete."
Asked if it would help to have a woman in the WH: "We will never know that until somebody tries because it's such a leap of faith. And I am well aware of that. It is, like, way out there."
On poll numbers showing here ahead of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani: "I heard that. ... Well, you know, it's very early" (ABC, 12/20).
Salon.com's Joan Walsh, on HRC's appearance: "I think she's playing to her strong suit, which will be women voters, and she went to a very, very receptive, as you said, fawning audience. ... You know, she's going to where she's loved and she's going to play it for a while. ... I think the worst thing for Hillary Clinton right now would be to have an air of inevitability about her because that would bring all of the Hillary haters out of the closet. ... I think voters don't like Hillary when she's Princess Hillary. They love her when she's, you know, scorned and victimized Hillary, sadly" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/20).
FNC's Schwartz: "Daytime is becoming part of a political strategy" ("O'Reilly Factor," 12/20).
Atlantic Monthly's Green: "I think she ought to win a daytime Emmy Award for fielding such inane questions" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/20). [KATHERINE LEHR]
Posted 12.21.06 08:06 AM | Comments (0)
December 20, 2006
We Don't Know What The Heck This Is
Anyone have any guesses? Several of us received this e-mail tonight. The NV Dem party has no idea, either.
-----------
From: 2008 Presidential Draft Committee [mailto:2008.presidential.draft.committee@gmail.com]
Sent: Wed 12/20/2006 5:05 PM
To: 2008.presidential.draft.committee@gmail.com
Subject: ADVISORY: NEVADANS TO MAKE MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT 2008
* *
December 20, 2006 Contact Information Available Tomorrow at Time of Release
*MEDIA ADVISORY*
*NEVADANS TO MAKE MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT 2008 *
* *
Las Vegas, NV-More than 50 prominent Nevadans will make a major announcement
on Thursday, December 21, regarding the 2008 Presidential Campaign. A "Draft
Committee" has been formed and will announce their plans and members at that
time. Nevada is scheduled to be the second state in the nation to hold a
nomination contest, a caucus, as part of the 2008 road to the White House.
*WHO: Draft Committee *
* *
*WHAT: Release Regarding the 2008 Democratic Nomination *
* *
*WHEN: Thursday, December 21, 2006 *
* *
Posted 12.20.06 08:37 PM | Comments (1)
Warner's Wish Upon A Card
'Tis the season to remind friends and family you care about them -- at least in a greeting card. And we just received one from ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D).
Yet since his was sent as an e-card, might he have a wish that stretches beyond his inner-circle?
Dear Friends,
We wanted to take just a moment out of your busy holiday schedule to wish you and your family a happy holiday season and best wishes for a new year full of hope, health and happiness.
Mark, Lisa, Madison, Gillian and Eliza
Posted 12.20.06 03:40 PM | Comments (2)
Today On Hotline TV: The Ad Spotlight Edition
Join us today, as we choose the best political ads of the year.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Posted 12.20.06 03:30 PM | Comments (0)
HRH: The Ellen Show
The "netroots" are back.
-- Emboldened by their role in the Dem sweep, liberal bloggers are now targeting Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA 10), a Bay Area centrist, pro-business Dem in the mold of Joe Lieberman.
-- Her crime? Bloggers perceive her as too cozy with Pres. Bush and big business. And as chair of the New Democratic Coalition, she's been a proponent of free-trade agreements to the ire of the populist crowd.
-- CA was fertile ground for lefty primary opposition in '06. At the other end of the state, Rep. Jane Harman (D) received a spirited and well-funded challenge from anti-war activist Marcy Winograd (D).
-- The '01 redistricting made Tauscher's district more receptive to a challenge from the left. She lost GOP-leaning suburbanites in the San Ramon Valley, while gaining working-class voters in Solano Co.
-- Nancy Pelosi could be the key to defusing this brewing intraparty divide. Her Silicon Valley ties and credibility with the left could dissuade potential opponents from running.
-- This episode could provide a new test of Pelosi's sympathies. Will she side with the bloggers or the business-friendly wing of the caucus? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Posted 12.20.06 03:15 PM | Comments (3)
Blasts From The Past
1. Here's an interesting NH public radio clip of an interview with new NH Rep. Paul Hodes.
At about 5:35 into Part One of the interview, Hodes talks about the lobbying campaign on the Hoyer/Murtha race. Doesn’t name any names, but openly discusses how he heavily he was pressured and how he was told several times that he was making a “terrible mistake.”
2. Remember how Sen. Joe Lieberman's campaign claimed their web site had been hacked on the day of his primary against Ned Lamont? Whatever happened, it wasn't the Lamont campaign's fault.
Posted 12.20.06 02:57 PM | Comments (1)
Nancy Jacobson Joins Team HRC
The architect of Sen. Evan Bayh’s presidential finance team, Nancy Jacobson, has found another buyer.
She’s joining the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton as a senior adviser and will work hand-in-hand with Clinton’s nat’l finance director, Jonathan Mantz. Jacobson’s deputy for Bayh, Stefanie Freeman, will become Clinton’s deputy finance director.
Jacobson is one the Democratic Party’s top fundraisers and relationship cultivators. She is a former finance director of the DNC. Two years ago, Bayh tasked her with building a self-sustaining fundraising organization that would allow him to opt-out of the federal public financing system.
She focused on finding new, upper middle class Democrats who became active in the party after the Clintons had left office. She recruited young entrepreneurs who appreciated Bayh’s tax-cutting resume as an Indiana governor.
Jacobson is married to Mark Penn, Clinton’s chief pollster. For years, there had been an informal firewall between the couple's private and professional lives. No longer.
The next big recruit from Bayh's world is Kory Mitchell, who handled the day-to-day affairs of Bayh's finance team. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 12.20.06 02:23 PM | Comments (0)
On The Trail: Fifty Lessons For The Political Soul
Trying to come up with a final column of the year to sum everything up is never easy. Sometimes, I've gone the "awards" route, and in other years, I've looked to the future. But this year, I thought I'd experiment with a tribute of sorts to Paul Simon's "50 Ways to Leave Your Lover" with the twist, "50 ways I learned from 2006."
Attention media elitists: Alabama may be home to former state Supreme Court judge Roy Moore, but that doesn't mean state Republicans bring God with them to the voting booth.
Alaska wanted change, but not the past -- former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles. It wanted the future -- Republican Gov.-elect Sarah Palin. A lesson for legacies running in '08?
Although Arizona is filled with swing voters, they won't buy into a candidate who says he's "independent" but whose previous job was state party chair.
Democrats should still believe in a place called Hope, because Arkansas is still bluer than the rest of the South.
It's a pretty simple formula for statewide success in California: The moderate Democratic general-election nominee will always triumph. Congrats to Arnold Shriver.
Democrats ought not get cocky in Colorado. Their recent success has everything to do with the party nominating more centrist candidates. [CHUCK TODD]
Continue reading ON THE TRAIL.
Posted 12.20.06 02:15 PM | Comments (1)
Insider Interview: Nick Ryan
What's happening to GOPers in IA? Why is the state so politically quixotic? Does the Ames straw poll really matter? Before he gets nabbed by an '08 GOP (and he's being recruited by several), The Hotline interviewed Nick Ryan, campaign mgr. for Jim Nussle's IA GOV bid.
HOTLINE: How much danger is there that the Iowa GOP is becoming a regional party within the state?
Nick Ryan: The dominant party in Iowa is no party -- and it grows every passing year. Republicans historically always perform well in Western Iowa, and there is no doubt that as a party we are suffering in our performance in Eastern Iowa. Looking at central and eastern Iowa -- I think Republicans can be encouraged that the right candidates CAN win there. Absent the 2006 wave, both congressional seats in eastern Iowa were held by Republicans -- by two very good, effective congressmen (Nussle and Leach). At every level -- be it federal, state or local - by recruiting good candidates we can win. Remember, the dominant party in Eastern Iowa is no party - not Republican or Democrat.
How did Bush win in 04 and Dems succeed in 00, 02 and 06?
The President and his team ran an incredibly effective campaign in 2004. Plus, Republicans were as unified as I have ever seen in campaigning for a candidate. In statewide elections, Dems did well in Iowa in 00, 02 and 06. However, in 00 and 02, the results were not as strong for Dems. You will remember that in 02, the Dems placed big bets on challengers to Nussle, Leach and Latham -- and came up losers in all matches. That example illustrates the paradox that is Iowa -- people here vote for the person, not the party. And that explains how Harkin and Vilsack can win in the same year by comfortable margins - and so can Republican congressional candidates.
Can Harkin be beat? If so, what kind of candidate can beat him?
This is Iowa -- any politician can be beat with the right candidate and the right campaign. The right candidate to run against Harkin is one that provides voters a clear contrast in not only policy but in personality and diversity of background. In 2006 Senate races, Democrats across the country played contrast well with their candidates - that is what would need to be done with Harkin in order to be successful.
What newspapers/interest group endorsements matter?
I think the Iowa Farm Bureau endorsement carries the most weight because of their statewide reach, large membership numbers, and all the added value they provide to a campaign in terms of additional communications and advocacy. Other interest groups add great value by educating their membership and mobilizing them. However, no one has the reach of the Farm Bureau. I think the time where newspaper endorsements had any real effect is long gone.
How many Republicans do you expect to caucus in '08?
I would expect right around 100,000
Will immigration play a role in winnowing the '08 GOP field?
I think immigration will play a very key role in winnowing the '08 GOP field. There is little doubt that immigration is a defining issue for not just Republicans, but Iowans and Americans as a whole. And currently there are real defining differences between the presidential candidates on what the best approach is to the problem.
Does the Ames straw poll still matter? If so, why?
It absolutely matters. I have no doubt that the Ames straw poll will likely winnow the field of contenders. The race currently has 2 clear front runners in Iowa -- Senator McCain and Governor Romney. The straw poll will be a test for each of them to position who has developed the best organization at that point in the campaign. Additionally, for all the other candidates that may enter the race, the straw poll provides an opportunity for them to jumpstart their campaign, reshape the face of the race, and energetically move forward as they head toward caucus day.
What are the geographic/demographic keys to victory statewide in '08?
Iowa is a very purple state and I think that 2004 was a tipping point for us in the base turnout war. Just like any party, we will always need to be mindful of turning out our base. However, elections in Iowa will be won or lost with no party voters instead of piling up large winning margins in one part of the state to offset large losing margins in another part of the state.
How deep is the GOP bench?
I think we are at a transition point as a party - there are some new up and coming Republican leaders that are fresh faces to the party. They need to gain more experience and exposure, but there are some very good people on the bench.
- Secretary of Agriculture-elect Bill Northey
- State Auditor David Vaudt
- Bill Dix (fmr. State rep, candidate in IA-01)
- Brian Kennedy (fmr. State chair, candidate in IA-01)
- Rep. Kraig Paulsen (State House Minority Whip)
- Jeff Lamberti (fmr. Iowa Senate President, candidate in IA-03)
What about the up-and-coming Dems?
- Rep. Geri Huser
- Rep. Kevin McCarthy (incoming State House Majority Leader)
- Rep. Swati Dandekar
- Sen. Jeff Danielson (incoming President Pro Tempore)
- Sen. Tom Hancock
Posted 12.20.06 10:56 AM | Comments (3)
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites
Capitol Fax -- Obamarama - Whitewater edition
JohnCombest.com -- SNL: Lawmakers Seek To Undo Stem-Cell Amendment
NhNewslinks.com -- A NH Liberal's Christmas Holiday Form Letter
Quorum Report -- Two Advance To Runoff To Fill Dead Legislator's Seat
Sayfie's Review -- Disputed Sarasota Election Case Goes Back To Court
WisPolitics.com -- Mad City Soap Box: Who Was The Top Political Newsmaker Of 2006?
Posted 12.20.06 10:00 AM | Comments (0)
Hotline After Dark -- We're Keeping Our Crown Too
The Miss U.S.A. scandal was the talk of the TV last night, but the Bush admin.'s support of an increase in US troop levels in Iraq was also discussed.
MSNBC's Shuster: "In the wake of a new Pentagon report saying the number of insurgent attacks on U.S. troops keeps rising and the chaos across Iraq is growing, today White House officials, for the first time, publicly confirmed that the Bush administration is considering a U.S. troop increase. Press Secretary Tony Snow denied, however, a front page story in today's Washington Post reporting a rift over that proposal between the president and the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff" ("Hardball," 12/19).
CNN's Henry: "Senior administration officials confirming to CNN that the president has asked his incoming new secretary of defense, Robert Gates, to ... increase both the size of the Army and the Marines. White House officials, though, cautioning that this is not a confirmation of the president approving a so-called surge of up to 30,000 or 40,000 additional U.S. troops to actually go directly to Iraq. ... But there's also no denying that this could help the president lay the groundwork for this surge in troops to Iraq" ("AC 360," 12/19).
CNN's Starr: "President Bush's announcement that he is supporting now expanding the size of the permanent active duty military really comes as no surprise. That is something that the military wanted to see happen. But make no mistake, it will take years to recruit and train and get the money for all of the equipment, to substantially increase the permanent size of the active duty military. That is a longer term problem and a longer term solution. The issue on the table right now, though, is would more troops in the near term for Iraq really make any difference?" ("Situation Room," 12/19).
CNN's J. King: "One of the big questions in town has been will there be real policy change when Rumsfeld goes out and Gates comes in? Here is more evidence that yes, there will be more policy change. ... The fact that it's being leaked that there's a disagreement, a difference between the Joint Chiefs is extraordinary and again, I think a sign that Donald Rumsfeld has left and the chiefs feel more emboldened to speak out publicly" ("Situation Room," 12/19).
Retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey: "Putting another 13,000, 15,000 will not change conditions at all. So I think it's an unwise course of action" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/19). [KATHERINE LEHR]
Posted 12.20.06 08:02 AM | Comments (0)
December 19, 2006
Gilmore Forms Exploratory Committee
Ex-VA Gov. / RNC chair Jim Gilmore (R) has decided to open a presidential exploratory committee.
His positioning is not ... subtle.
“A void exists,” Mr. Gilmore said in an interview. “There is just no conservative right now who can mount a national campaign.”
The Draft Gilmore folks exult:
www.DraftGilmore.org is excited to announce that former Governor Jim Gilmore will explore a presidential bid in 2008. We believe Jim Gilmore is the only true conservative candidate in the 2008 presidential race. As Governor, he slashed taxes for hard-working Virginia families. As the leader of national security think tanks, Gilmore traveled the United States discussing national security. Gilmore has been and continues to be an advocate for deficit reductions, spending limits, and national security. Jim Gilmore is the next generation of conservatism. We believe only he can realign the conservative movement in America.
Posted 12.19.06 11:02 PM | Comments (3)
Rudy's Website, and Fundraiser
“We’re very pleased with tonight’s fundraiser turnout," says Sunny Mindel, Giuliani's spokesperson. "This will provide the seed money to continue to explore a potential run for the White House.”
Just today, Giuliani launched his exploratory committee website.
And here's a preview of the issues he'll run on.
Posted 12.19.06 08:09 PM | Comments (2)
Today On Hotline TV: The How's That Happen Edition
Join us today, as we dish out hotties for worst winner of '06.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
View HotlineTV Daily Here
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Visit HotlineTV's Website Here For Extra Content, Today's Predictions And Email Alerts:
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Posted 12.19.06 04:30 PM | Comments (0)
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites
Capitol Fax -- Obamarama - Few Say They Would Have Trouble...
JohnCombest.com -- Human Events: Missouri's Brian Johnson: The Case For Mike Pence In 2008
NhNewslinks.com -- # Hodes Vows Support For '100 Hours'
Quorum Report -- SAEN: Rep. Reyes Stumbles On Key Terror Issue
Sayfie's Review -- Tribune: Future Governor Stops In Tampa
WisPolitics.com -- Doyle: Take New Look at Civil Unions
Posted 12.19.06 02:00 PM | Comments (0)
The Daily Troika: Rudy Batters Up
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will announce at the beginning of the new year that he has secured staffs in both Iowa and New Hampshire and planned trips to both states (Hotline sources, 12/19). Also, his fundraiser Roy Bailey said Giuliani "is considering creating a variation of the fundraising network set up by Bush, with more tiers of donors and a baseball theme."
Also in NH, Dem activists say they're getting postcards from Sen. Barack Obama. On one side there's a photo with a similing Obama among the crowd with a return addres for Obama 2010 campaign in Chicago on the other side. Here's what the postcard said:
Dear Friend,
What a day last Sunday was! Thanks so much for joining me in Manchester to celebrate the wonderful success of New Hampshire Democrats in last month’s election. The energy and enthusiasm I encountered gave me great hope that the movement for change that started in the Granite State has the power to sweep across the nation.This election represented the beginning of a movement to create a different kind of politics in this country – a politics that stops dwelling on what divides us and starts focusing on what unites us so that that we can tackle the great challenges of our time, whether it’s the war in Iraq, access to quality health care for everyone, educating our children or an energy policy that reduces our dependence on foreign oil.
Americans are ready to turn the page. This is our moment to write our own chapter in the history books, and this is our time to lead. It all started in New Hampshire, but we still have a long way to go, so please visit BarackObama.com to see how you can join me in this effort in the days and months to come.
Sincerely,
Barack Obama
U.S. Senator
(Hotline sources).
Gov. Mitt Romney spoke to the Boston press corps for the first time since Thanksgiving on Bay Windows-gate and said he's for an national employment verification system for employers to vet employees.
South Carolina social conservatives are concerned about Romney's 1994 comments not on "rights," but rather his words on "Reagan." National Review reports Romney tried to distance himself from Regan during the 1994 Senate debates, and the comments are circulating among social conservatives in South Carolina without much media attention.
Primary Source reports, and Romney's camp confirmed to us, that he's will be in NH tomorrow with some events that might be open to the press. Primary Source writes Romney will meet with smaller groups of NH GOP activists because there's concern he might be "overexposed," and therefore is opting for more intimate gatherings.
Sen. Sam Brownback meets with conservative activists in Dubuque and Davenport today. Then he'll head to Florida tomorrow to speak at the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC luncheon and meet with Miami Republicans. On Thursday, 12/21, Brownback travels to the Greenville, SC, area. He also removed his block on a Michigan Judge who attended a friend's same-sex commitment ceremony because he said he didn't realize his suggestion that the judge recuse herself from same-sex union cases raised constitutional questions.
Per a noon release from his exploratory committee, Sen. John McCain announced that he's brought on MI-03 GOP Chair Dave Dishaw as his grassroots chair for the state. Dishaw was the MI Chair for Bush-Cheney '04 grassroots operations and recently was finance chair for Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land's re-election campaign.
NM Gov. Bill Richardson was in NH yesterday, and he's considering a request from the Save Dafur Coalition to go to Africa to persude the Sudanese government to accept a peacekeeping force [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Posted 12.19.06 01:02 PM | Comments (0)
Kissinger, Peterson, 57 Major Donors Join Team McCain
Ex-Sec/State Henry Kissinger has agreed to become an honorary co-chair for Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign in New York, McCain aides said. Along with Kissinger, McCain has won the support of Pete Peterson, a former Commerce Secretary, and John Whitehead, the former Goldman Sachs chair and Reagan admin official.Also -- on the eve of ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani's first exploratory committee fundraiser, McCain's exploratory committee unveiled the names of the 57 wealthy and famous donors who've agreed to serve on his NY, CT and NJ finance teams.
They include Henry Kravis, a founding partner of the KKR conglomerate, John Lehman, the 9/11 commissioner and ex-Navy sec. and Woody Johnson, the owner of the New York Jets.
McCain's campaign will not cop to this, but it's fairly clear they want this muscle-flexing to scare uncommitted donors away from signing up with other campaigns. The constellation of New York fundraising stars, in particular, poses a challenge to Giuliani. McCain's team believes that if Giuliani has trouble raising money, he will decide not to run.
On the downside, bragging about a large finance team raises expectations for how much they'll collect before the end of the first financial quarter of '07.
McCain is expected to forgo federal matching funds for both the primary and general election. McCain can tap each donor for a maximum of $2,100 per race, and he can raise money for both the primaries and the general election race at the same time.
A side note: recall that Gov. Mitt Romney's aides, when discussing their candidate's foreign policy education, let it be known that Romney had spent time with Kissinger.
Here's what McCain, in a statement he'll release later, has to say about his team: “I am honored to have the support of so many talented and experienced professionals. New York is the heart of the financial world, and this team’s work on behalf of my exploratory committee will be indispensable as we move forward.” [MARC AMBINDER] The full list follows the jump. The full list follows:
National Co-Chairs: Honorary New York Co-Chairs: Lewis M. Eisenberg Honorable Henry Kissinger James B. Lee Honorable Pete Peterson John Thain Honorable John Whitehead Larry Bathgate
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut Finance Committee Members: Ken Abramowitz Russ Gerson Andrew Malik Randy Altschuler Howard Gittis Georgette Mosbacher Michael Ashner Michael Glassner John Myers Kendrick Ashton Steve Goldberg Joseph J. Plumeri Mark Broxmeyer Sid Goodfriend Scott Rechler Bob Caruso Dan Hebert Ted Roosevelt, IV Ben Chouake Gary Holloway Richard Rosenbaum Harry Clark Woody Johnson Joe Schmuckler Mayree Clark Munr Kazmir Barbara Sobel Peter Cohen Dean Kehler Evan Stewart Edward Cox David Knott Linda Tavlarios Ray Dalio Richard Kogan Wayne Tuan Patrick Durkin Henry Kravis Thomas E. Tuft Anne Estabrook Jerry Leamon Barry West Laurance Gay Alain Lebec Gordon Whiting Peter Georgiopoulos Leah Lebec Laurence Zuriff Andy Gershon John Lehman###
Posted 12.19.06 11:03 AM | Comments (5)
Ad Spotlight: Draft Obama
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) may not have decided whether now is the time for him to seek the White House, but Draft Obama sure has.
A 60-second ad urging the junior senator to enter the race will debut in New Hampshire on Wednesday and run through Christmas Day. It is also making its way onto Washington, D.C., airwaves this week. The Jackson Group's Bud Jackson, who produced the ad gratis, confirmed it is the first TV spot of the 2008 election.
"We can replace fear with hope" flashes on the screen as the ad begins; it's a line that underscores what many political analysts deem Obama's top selling point. And Obama's second book -- "The Audacity of Hope," echoing the same theme -- is once again perched on top of the New York Times' best-seller list. Jackson said that although he's used the line in other campaign spots, it was an easy choice for the TV spot.
New Hampshire played host to Obama last weekend in what was reported by the New Hampshire Union Leader as a "whirlwind debut." But MSNBC.com national affairs writer Tom Curry found that the feverish media entourage that followed Obama put off the New Hampshirites who are used to being "courted" and "want more substance when he returns."
That's precisely why Jackson, who said he may not even end up working for a presidential candidate in 2008, got on board to produce the spot.
"Obama is potentially the right candidate at the right time," Jackson said, adding that Democrats deserve to hear more from him.
Jackson and consultant John Hlinko, who is also a new addition to Draft Obama, were part of the successful movement that pulled retired Gen. Wesley Clark into the 2004 Democratic presidential primary. One of Jackson's claims to fame is that he produced the first-ever presidential draft ad -- a similar ad to this year's Obama spot, but touting Clark.[ERIN MCPIKE]
Posted 12.19.06 10:49 AM | Comments (0)
Spotlight: The Waiting Room
Newt Gingrich might be onto something. Appearing on "Meet," he said that if McCain, Romney or Giuliani "seals it off by Labor Day, my announcing now wouldn't make any difference." In WH '08, should longshots wait before wading in, while frontrunners announce early?
Early '07 will be all about frontrunners who need extra months to work out kinks (HRC's spontanaiety, Obama's experience, Rudy's right flank, Romney's religion)? If so, should 2nd-tier candidates relax and let the fields shake out before wasting $50M?
The Jimmy Carter-created C.W. for longshots was to get in early to build a warchest and prove viability. But as we learned in both '99/00 and '03/'04, money follows buzz (see McCain, Dean and Clark). And while none of them won their party's nod, they got closer than any of the tortoise/longshot hopefuls of those cycles.
None of which explains Bayh's decision to drop out. With $10M+ in the bank, Bayh's departure leaves an electability void likely to be filled by Edwards or, perhaps, some "new" fall flavor, like maybe Mark Warner?
Posted 12.19.06 10:17 AM | Comments (0)
Hollen Goes to DCCC
Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) will be the next DCCC Chair, as announced by incoming Speaker Pelosi's office this morning.
Posted 12.19.06 09:38 AM | Comments (0)
Hotline After Dark -- Hollywood Gaga For Obama?
Talk of the missing Mt. Hood climbers dominated TV coverage last night, but Iraq and new Defense Sec. Robert Gates were close seconds.
FNC's Emanuel: "Robert Gates became the 22nd secretary of defense today and providing fresh
perspective on Iraq is at the top of his priority list. The secretary says he's planning to travel to Iraq quite soon to speak with U.S. military commanders" ("Special Report," 12/18).
CNN's Malveaux: "Earlier today, President Bush stood shoulder to shoulder with the man who, of course, will be advising him on any kind of change in tactics regarding Iraq. The president attending the official signing in ceremony of his new secretary of defense, Bob Gates. Now, we expect some sort of announcement in a couple of weeks, the new year, of course, on possible changes in those tactics. But already we're hearing a change at least in tone with the administration. It was Gates, during his confirmation hearing, who gave a real blunt assessment of the state of the war, saying, in fact, that we are not winning" ("Situation Room," 12/18).
GOP strategist Terry Holt, on Gates: "You know we're at war in Afghanistan and we're in a war in Iraq, but he goes into a war front in the Pentagon. There's still a fundamental and huge difference about what these groups of generals want to do in the world, how they want to grow their particular thiefdoms. And I think he's going to have his hands full, just with sorting out the bodies over at the Pentagon" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 12/18).
PBS' Holman: "The idea of dispatching another 20,000 soldiers and Marines, mainly to try to secure Baghdad, appeared to be gaining momentum. It even has its own name: 'surge.' And though Gates did not touch on the issue in his maiden speech, the surge debate filled newspaper headlines" ("Newshour," 12/18).
Malveaux, on ex-Sec/State Colin Powell's criticism of the war in Iraq: "Persuading Powell isn't a priority, the White House insisted, in its attempt to downplay his criticism. Aides say the president is weighing his numerous options for changing tactics in Iraq, following his consultations last week with Iraqi leaders and advisers at the Pentagon and State" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 12/18).
MSNBC's Carlson: "Colin Powell more than any other person probably apart from Bush himself, got us into the war in Iraq. His speech before the U.N. describing Saddam's weapons of mass destruction was the pivotal moment in the countdown to invasion. Bush could not have done it without him. So before Powell tells the rest of us what we already know about the disaster in Iraq, shouldn't he acknowledge his responsibility and take a moment to apologize?" ("Tucker," 12/18).
THE HOLLYWOOD VOTE
While appearing on last night's "Hardball," Matt Damon and Robert DeNiro were asked who they are rooting for in WH '08.
Damon: "Barack Obama."
DeNiro: "Well, I think of two people: Hillary Clinton and Obama."
Damon, asked if he would campaign for Obama: "Yes, I mean, I would support him strongly." [KATHERINE LEHR]
Posted 12.19.06 07:37 AM | Comments (0)
December 18, 2006
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites
Capitol Fax -- Obamarama - Few Say They Would Have Trouble...
JohnCombest.com -- AP: Medicaid Crucial Issue To Blunt's Future
NhNewslinks.com -- Republicans Sounding The Alarm
Quorum Report -- ROBINSON: Perry Wants More Line Items To Veto
Sayfie's Review -- Times: Crist Girds For Change In Cuba
WisPolitics.com -- Doyle Hits Up Execs For Inaugural Cash
Posted 12.18.06 03:45 PM | Comments (0)
Bayh's Free Agents
Before he dropped out, Sen. Evan Bayh put together an impressive political team to help run a presidential race. They're now free agents.
- Anita Dunn -- served as Bayh's chief consultant. Before the election, she signed on to Sen. Barack Obama's HopeFund PAC but is no longer affiliated. It's not clear whether Dunn will do a different campaign.
- Marc Farinella -- was exec. dir of Bayh's PAC.
- Paul Maslin -- no major Dem campaign needs a pollster right now, but Maslin has the nat'l and pres. experience.
- Dan Pfeiffer -- affable comm. dir for Bayh. Given that he's a veteran of Tom Daschle's campaign universe, it would not be a surprise if he joins the Obama camp in some capacity. That said, Pfeiffer hasn't made a decision yet/
- Nancy Jacobson -- the architect of Bayh's finances, she'll end up either with Sen. Hillary Clinton (her husband is Mark Penn), Barack Obama (many Bayh donors like Obama) or remain unaffiliated.
- Kory Mitchell -- the man in charge of putting together Bayh's plan to raise the tens of millions needed for a campaign. He managed Sen. John Kerry's relationships with FL donors in '04 and was key point of contact for Western donors at the DNC. We're told that four campaigns and two candidates called Mitchell directly.
- Other fundraisers: key bundlers signed up by Bayh include Greg Wendt, Mark Chandler, Eric Mindich, Jeff Smulyan, Mark Gilbert, Adam Aron, Danny Holtz and Danny Ponce. All are big fish, capable of bringing in six figure sums through their rolodexes.
- Chris Hayler and Sean Downey -- seved as Bayh's political directors for the pre-presidential months. Hayler is a former IA Dem staffer; Downey was Sen. Joe Leberman's dep. pol. dir in '04.
- Camp Bayh staff -- the 25 in IA, 15 in NH, 2 in NV and 1 in SC. Well trained and many have deep relationships with local elected officials. In IA, the Camp Bayh-trained political team helped secure the state leg. for Dems, according to Republicans.
Posted 12.18.06 03:20 PM | Comments (1)
Jack Oliver Joins ONE
In an effort to have all their political bases covered for 2008, Bush strategist Jack Oliver will become the next co-chair of the ONE campaign, joining Yahoo! COO Dan Rosenweig. The two will join ONE CEO and former Reid Chief of Staff Susan McCue who signed onto the anti-poverty campaign last month.
"Jack and Dan are two of the country’s best political and tactical minds," McCue said in a statement. "I look forward to joining forces with them in our grassroots campaign to bring the fight against global AIDS and extreme poverty to the forefront of today’s political arena and 2008 Presidential cycle. We are building a team unlike any other and together we plan to create an unstoppable force, powered by people, for real change."
Oliver's statement: "ONE is building a successful campaign by doing it differently: bringing together people of different political parties and faiths, business and politics, grassroots and Internet organizing to help America do even more to save lives in the world's poorest countries."
The Gates Foundation's Joe Cerrell, a former assistant press secretary to Al Gore, was also elected to the board.[SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Posted 12.18.06 01:15 PM | Comments (0)
Second Runs
In the last 7 WH races, at least one of the major parties has nominated someone who was making at least their 2nd run.
For now, at least 3 candidates are embarking on 2nd runs in '08: McCain, Edwards and Biden (with Gore a possible 4th). Not surprisingly, all three are trying new tacks for their second bids. McCain has evolved from insurgent to establishment; Edwards is going from fresh face to crusader; and Biden is vying for the seasoned veteran mantle (we're not even going to try to classify Biden's '88 theme).
McCain's shift is the most historically viable. Republicans have nominated the second place insurgent three times since '80.
The most risky change is the Edwards strategy. Not since McGovern have the Dems actually nominated the crusader. Then again, maybe Edwards had no choice. The establishment is with Clinton; the fresh-face crowd is with Obama and Edwards can't pull off senior statesman. Edwards better hope Gore doesn't block the crusade path.
Posted 12.18.06 12:33 PM | Comments (2)
Maine Senate: Allen Ramps Up
Rep. Tom Allen (D-01) '04 manager Michael Cuzzi confirmed they have brought on Heather Quinn as finance dir. should Allen decide to run for SEN. Last cycle, Quinn managed Rep. Mike Michaud (D-02)'s campaign. Some ME Dem sources say this is Allen's attempt to break into ME-02. Cuzzi said he will also play a significant role in Allen's pending campaign. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]
Posted 12.18.06 11:05 AM | Comments (0)
This Week's Tank Talk: Musical Chairs
Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks!
FOR THE 110TH TIME...
If you could offer a few words of advice to incoming-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, what would they be? In his article, Goodbye, 109th (And Good Riddance)", AEI's Norm Ornstein suggests a few appointments Pelosi might consider to keep her allies -- left and right. Among them -- a "council of elders" led by one GOPer in particular (hint: he's from CO) and a special group of 10 or so House GOPers...
MUSICAL CHAIRS
AEI's John Fortier wonders how strong Dems will become on homeland security in the 110th Congress. Is it enough, he asks, that Pelosi's friend Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) will chair the defense appropriations subcommittee? Or, should Dems instead focus on gaining power in other cmtes where pols, such as Pelosi, may lack friends? Dems, he suggests, have a few promises to keep.
HOW THE GRINCH STOLE LOBBYISTS
If Congress is the Grinch, suggests Heritage's Ronald Ult and Brian Riedl, then what will happen to K Street? Although pols like Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) and Rep. David Obey (D-WI) might have a few ideas, unless they are implemented, Riedl and Ult ask what would happen in the case of an emergency?
TOO TERRORIFIED TO RUN?
Have some politicians become too focused on nat'l security? Has the fear of threats shifted the political landscape to an unhealthy degree? At CATO, Woody Hayes Nat'l Security chair John Mueller sat down with ex-VA Gov. James S. Gilmore to examine a few theories.
*Talk at the Center For American Progress and the Brookings Institution was all about policy... politics makes a comeback on Monday.
[SARAH LOVENHEIM]
Have an idea for next week's Tank Talk?
Send your suggestions to Sarah, at slovenheim@nationaljournal.com.
Posted 12.18.06 08:50 AM | Comments (0)
December 17, 2006
What If Warner's Reconsidering?
We're not trying to start anything but with the decision by Evan Bayh to not run, there was a lot of commentary on the Sunday shows wondering if Mark Warner was having second thoughts.
And by sheer coincidence this week, one of our NH spies informed us they received a holiday card in the mail from... Mark Warner.
Could Warner get coaxed back into the race next summer once the euphoria of Obama and Hillary has worn off? He has the personal resources... Again, not trying to start anything but simply making an observation.
Posted 12.17.06 12:57 PM | Comments (1)
An NH Dem Institution Retires
NH Dem Chair Kathy Sullivan announced this weekend she will not seek re-election in March. She's been the chair of the party since '99 and therefore is, perhaps, the only state chair many current active WH '08 Dems have known. Sullivan will easily go down as one of the most successful state party chairs in NH Dem history. The results speak for themselves. The only office the NH Dems have not been able to win on Sullivan's watch was a U.S. Senate seat and that could change in '08 if GOP Sen. John Sununu receives the strong challenge many analysts expect.
According to multiple reports, NH Dem Vice Chair Ray Buckley, a veteran activist in the party, plans to seek the top spot.
As for Sullivan's future, very little was hinted at in reports about whether she'll run for office herself (could she run for Senate?) or whether she'll sign on with a WH '08 campaign. With Sullivan not presiding over the state party, there is now a new major "get" for WH Dem '08 candidates to fight over: Kathy Sullivan.
Posted 12.17.06 10:38 AM | Comments (0)
December 16, 2006
Richardson: McCain "Dead Wrong" About Troops
In New Hampshire this a.m., Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) will confront Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) on Iraq.
The White House is leaning towards adopting McCain's proposal to add tens of thousands of combat troops to U.S. forces in Baghdad in a final effort to secure the city.
Here's what Richardson says:
“The leading advocate for escalating the war is Senator John McCain. I have served with John in Congress and I respect him. But John McCain is wrong, dead wrong to think that we can solve Iraq’s political crisis through military escalation.”“There are no quick or easy answers to the crisis in Iraq. Our choices are between bad options and worse ones. Some prefer military escalation. Some choose staying the course. These options are illusions. The only realistic choice we have is to stand down militarily and let the Iraqis stand up and face the political crisis which only they can resolve.”
“I’ve been to Iraq and Afghanistan. I worked in this region...we should harbor no illusions. This withdrawal will not be pretty. People will die. But fewer will die than if we stay. There are no guarantees that our departure will end the civil war, but it is sure to continue so long as we stay. The Iraqis might, or might not, resolve their political crisis. It is up to them. They distrust and fear one another, and this makes it very tough. But they share one goal – they don’t want to destroy their own country. To save it, they need to stop killing each other and start compromising. And we need to get out of the way.”
Posted 12.16.06 10:27 AM | Comments (2)
It's Official: Bayh's Not Running
From Evan Bayh's statement:
The odds were always going to be very long for a relatively unknown candidate like myself, a little bit like David and Goliath. And whether there were too many Goliaths or whether I'm just not the right David, the fact remains that at the end of the day, I concluded that due to circumstances beyond our control the odds were longer than I felt I could responsibly pursue. This path - and these long odds - would have required me to be essentially absent from the Senate for the next year instead of working to help the people of my state and the nation.
"Too many Goliaths"? Sounds like Obama-mania has claimed another victim.
Indy Star has the definitive story.
Posted 12.16.06 12:45 AM | Comments (1)
Bye Bayh (See Update)
It appears the CBS News story about Evan Bayh deciding against a WH '08 bid may be true. Fox News now has their own sources telling them Bayh won't make a bid. FWIW, we tried to get our Bayh sources to debunk the news and they wouldn't.
Bayh would have started a campaign with more than $10M in the bank and while no one was talking about Bayh as a first tier candidate just yet, there was an assumption he'd be a leader of the second tier and no modern primary campaign to date hasn't had a second tier candidate make the jump to top competitor. Bayh's most recent trip to NH coincided with Barack Obama's first visit to the state. One wonders if the sudden rise of Obama spooked Bayh. The coverage of the two trips was, well, incomparable. A few months ago in Iowa, Mark Warner shared the stage with Obama at the Harkin Steak Fry. It was seen by some as a real eye-opener for Warner, who made the decision not to run a few weeks later.
If Bayh does indeed pass up a WH campaign, it will be the second WH cycle in a row where Bayh has flirted but decided against a bid. Will there be a third time? [CHUCK TODD]
Update: A Dem close to Bayh confirms that the senator will put a statement out tomorrow confirming that he's decided against a WH bid.
Posted 12.16.06 12:21 AM | Comments (2)
December 15, 2006
On The Download: He's Got Such A Pretty Facebook
Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.
When Evan Bayh announced he was forming an exploratory committee to run for President last week, he already had thousands of virtual supporters and potential volunteers behind him. That's because Bayh was able to develop his profile and name ID on Facebook.com since early last summer.
After Labor Day, Facebook set up public pages for every candidate up for re-election and any other politician who asked, including Bayh. And now that the election is over, all sitting members of Congress and Governors's pages will move forward (losing candidates will be given the option to open a regular account or be removed) and similar public pages for 2008 Presidential candidates will be added in 2007.
And as presidential announcements start rolling out, many of pages and the online networks that accompany them have continued to grow for WH '08 candidates.
"Facebook was really just part of our outreach strategy," said Bayh's online organizer Ryan Alexander. "Senator Bayh has always been a strong advocate of students."
It's a strategy that pulled in more than 6,000 supporters at last count because, in part, Bayh's approach includes pro-actively recruiting and maintaining relationships with his "friends," according to his e-campaign. Bayh's internet team wishes supporters a Happy Birthday, updates Bayh's status almost every day and puts in more personal nuggetts on his profile than those that appear on his Senate Web site.
"You can't just throw up a facebook (page) that is a rehash of your Senate Web site. You have to understand that people on this Web site are looking for personal information," Alexander said. "We really wanted to approach this how a regular facebook user approaches this."
Oh, and it also helped that Bayh promoted his facebook page at the National College Democrats of America conference last July. In the 48 hours following, Bayh received 1200 friend requests.
But how does a candidate turn his or her "friends" into "volunteers" or "activists"?
Jacob Colker used facebook to recruit a couple hundred volunteers. As Peter Franchot for Maryland Comptroller statewide field director, Colker said it's a matter of using the microtargeting that Facebook sets up.
The downside, according to Colker, is that it's tedious work for one lucky campaign staffer.
"You need a computer-savvy, almost nerdy-quiet person to sit there on the Web sites and try to talk to as many people as possible," said Colker.
After the jump, check out out On The Download's Facebook Guide to all the Democratic candidates. A separate guide to Republican candidates' facebook efforts will run next week. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ] and [TINA SALVATO].
Evan Bayh's Official Facebook "Election 2006" Profile and the Evan Bayh's All America PAC group (2,016 members). Unofficial but notable groups: Evan Bayh for President 2008 (239 members), I will vote for Evan Bayh for President in 2008 (627 members), and Send Evan Bayh to the WHITE HOUSE! (360 members).
Joe Biden has no official facebook profile or group.
Unofficial but notable groups: Students for Biden (73 members), Biden-Gelb Plan for Iraq (75 members) and Biden for President - 2008 (472 members).
Wesley Clark's official WesPAC page: Wesley Clark - Securing America's Future (783 members). Also this unofficial but notable group: Wes Clark for President (172 members).
Hillary Clinton's official Facebook "Election 2006" Profile. Also check out these unnofficial but notable groups: Hillary for President in '08! (126 members), HILLARY '08 (721 members) and Hillary '08 (447 members).
Chris Dodd does not have an official profile or group page, but there are these unofficial but notable groups: Chris Dodd for President (5 members), Sen. Chris Dodd for President, 2008 (22 members), and Students for Dodd (20 members).
John Edwards's official Facebook "Election 2006" Profile. Unofficial but notable groups: John Edwards for One America (227 members), John Edwards is Good! (1,233 members) and John Edwards 2008 (331 members).
Barack Obama's official Facebook "Election 2006" Profile. Other unofficial but notable groups included "Barack Obama for President in 2008" (24,929 members at press time for this student group, but it's growing by the minute), "Barack Obama for President" (2,895 members) and there at least nine additional groups that have more than 1000 members.
John Kerry's official Facebook "Election 2006" Profile. Unofficial but notable group: John F. Kerry For President 2008 (84 members).
Bill Richardson's official Facebook "Election 2006" Profile. Unofficial but notable groups: America for Bill Richardson (160 members) and Bill Richardson for President in 2008 (20 members)
Tom Vilsack's official Facebook "Election 2006" Profile. Unofficial but notable groups: