December 25, 2006

Census Data Shows Florida's Gain Is New York's Pain

The new Census Bureau 2006 state population estimates are out and the numbers offer some insight into the post-2010 Census reapportionment of congressional seats. While it’s still too early to predict exactly which states are gainers and losers, a few things are already clear.

According to an analysis by Polidata, a political data consulting firm, seven states are all but certain to lose at least one seat: Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Another six states are all but certain to gain at least one seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas and Utah.

A few other interesting projections from Polidata: Texas could pick up as many as 4 congressional seats; New York and Ohio could lose 2 seats. California, for the first time since statehood, may not pick up any seats.

Polidata’s Clark Bensen also observes that Florida (currently with 25 seats) is now poised to replace New York (29 seats) as the third most populous state – and that both states might end up with 27-member delegations when the dust settles after reapportionment.

Sixty years ago, no one would have believed that Florida and New York might one day have House delegations of equal size. In the 1940s, the New York delegation was a 45-member congressional powerhouse while Florida was a puny 6-seat weakling. But between 1942 and 2002, Florida gained 19 seats while New York lost 16.

Much of Florida’s surge in congressional clout has been carved directly out of New York’s hide; out-migration from New York to Florida has been a prime contributor to Florida’s growth. The 2000 Census revealed that, between 1995 and 2000 alone, 308,000 people moved from New York to Florida – the largest state-to-state flow in the U.S. At last count, nearly 1.5 million Floridians were born in New York, including five members from Florida’s current House delegation. Two are Democrats born in Queens: Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Robert Wexler. The three Republicans were born outside New York City: Ginny Brown-Waite was born in Albany, John Mica in Binghamton and Dave Weldon in Amityville.

Among the New York five, Brown-Waite (who is a former New York state Senate staffer) ranks as an aberration. She represents a Gulf Coast-side district located just north of Tampa, while the other four represent districts on Florida’s Atlantic Ocean side. Traditionally, the Gulf Coast has been a haven for Midwesterners – they took Interstate 75 south to Florida for vacation and later resettled close to that familiar corridor. Until recently New Yorkers (and other East Coasters) tended to follow a different path, settling on the Atlantic Coast along I-95, in places like Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]

Posted at 04:01 PM

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