December 30, 2006
Holiday Big Numbers: 1st Or 4th
Polling firms, it seems, don’t even take the holidays off. Two new polls this week examine the Presidential primary fields, and for one front-runner, the news is decidedly mixed.
That front-runner is Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), who stands, depending on which poll you believe, in first place among likely Democratic caucus goers, or in fourth among the same group. A poll out this week from ARG, a NH-based firm who doesn't regularly polls IA Dems and who has done work for Republican candidates in the past, shows Clinton with 31% of the vote, besting ex-Sen. John Edwards’ (D-NC) 20%, the 17% who prefer IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) and 10% who say they want Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). The poll was conducted 12/19-23 and surveyed 600 likely caucus-goers.
FWIW, there's not an Iowa Dem Caucus poll we have heard about, public or private, that has had Clinton in first.
Meanwhile, a poll for KCCI-TV by Research 2000 released 12/21, shows the same top four candidates, but in a very different order. Edwards and Obama each command 22% of the vote, with Vilsack at 12% and Clinton trailing the pack at 10%. That poll interviewed 400 likely caucus-goers.
The Republican side of the two IA polls shows the two front-runners, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) splitting leads, though both are within the margin of error. KCCI and R2K have McCain up 27% to 26%, while ARG has Giuliani up 28% to 26%. The ARG poll shows McCain leading big among independents while Giuliani has a large lead among Republicans.
Big differences between the two GOP polls come in runners-up. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) clocks in with 18% in the ARG poll, while MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) tie in fourth place with 6%. The KCCI poll has Romney with 9% in third place and Gingrich with 7%. In that survey, Hagel didn’t even make the cut on the questionnaire. [REID WILSON].
Posted at 08:21 AM
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