December 19, 2006
Spotlight: The Waiting Room
Newt Gingrich might be onto something. Appearing on "Meet," he said that if McCain, Romney or Giuliani "seals it off by Labor Day, my announcing now wouldn't make any difference." In WH '08, should longshots wait before wading in, while frontrunners announce early?
Early '07 will be all about frontrunners who need extra months to work out kinks (HRC's spontanaiety, Obama's experience, Rudy's right flank, Romney's religion)? If so, should 2nd-tier candidates relax and let the fields shake out before wasting $50M?
The Jimmy Carter-created C.W. for longshots was to get in early to build a warchest and prove viability. But as we learned in both '99/00 and '03/'04, money follows buzz (see McCain, Dean and Clark). And while none of them won their party's nod, they got closer than any of the tortoise/longshot hopefuls of those cycles.
None of which explains Bayh's decision to drop out. With $10M+ in the bank, Bayh's departure leaves an electability void likely to be filled by Edwards or, perhaps, some "new" fall flavor, like maybe Mark Warner?
Posted at 10:17 AM
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