December 05, 2006

The Hotline's December House Cleaning

READY FOR THE RUNOFF?

Ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) has a formidable financial hurdle to overcome in his runoff against Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-TX 23). The incumbent has spent nearly 20 times more than Rodriguez over the last month. And Rodriguez has depended on the DCCC for TV advertising.

-- But redistricting has given Dems some hope for an upset. Seven opponents held Bonilla under 50% (49%) in a reconfigured CD, which encompasses south San Antonio -- including parts of Rodriguez's base from his old seat in Congress.

-- The new CD also brings in poorer Hispanics, receptive to a more liberal message. The GOP lost ground with Latinos in the midterms. If the trend continues and party trumps ethnicity (Bonilla is one of the leading Latino GOPers), Bonilla could be in trouble.

-- The race also pits demographics against money and organization. Rodriguez has already run twice in the last two years, losing both times. Will he capitalize on the new CD and the anti-GOP tide, or will Bonilla's superior infrastructure carry him to victory?[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

LA 02: AD WAR GOES FROM BAD TO VERSE

State Rep. Karen Carter (D) launched a radio ad this week attacking Carter. In the ad, she alleges that while she was on CNN post-Hurricane Katrina demanding "buses and gas" to evacuate residents, Jefferson had a Nat'l Guard escort bring him to his Uptown home to pick up a laptop. The ad's announcer delivers the narrative "as a poem, a la 'Twas the Night Before Christmas." To highlight one segment: "Karen Carter made headlines, pleading for buses and gas; to help desperate people in the Dome, and on the Claiborne overpass. In the meantime Bill Jefferson couldn't be found. Oh, that's right, two Humvees and a chopper had taken him Uptown."

Jefferson's camp "declined to comment on the ad" but "pointed to news reports" in which Jefferson said Nat'l Guard officials had "insisted that they usher him via a high-water vehicle on a tour of his district" (New Orleans Times-Picayune).

Now It's Postal
"Any hope of reconciliation" between Carter and Jefferson Parish Sheriff
"can comfortably be put to rest" now that Lee is sending out a political flier expressing his "utter contempt" for Carter, demanding voters"Just Say No!" to her. Lee "maintains he did not coordinate his mailer" with Jefferson's camp, though Carter spokesperson Cheron Brylski said Lee's comments are "suspiciously similar" to Jefferson's "attacks."

Meanwhile, Carter has made some "headway" in "mending fences" in Jefferson Parish, picking up Westwego Mayor Robert Billiot's endorsement (Times Picayune).

FL 13: TO ERR IS HUMAN

After analyzing every FL 13 ballot cast, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune discovered that "loyal party voters -- on both sides of the aisle -- were largely responsible for the massive undervote" in the race between auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) and '04 candidate Christine Jennings (D). Almost 60% of the 18K undervotes came from voters "who otherwise did their best to ensure their party's candidate won."

Consequently, "a growing number of election experts" consider the most signficant factor in the undervote was "bad ballot design" -- something that state auditors have brushed aside as they examine voting machine malfunctions this week. Experts theorized that party-line voters "would be more vulnerable to a ballot design flaw because they are looking for three letters -- 'DEM' or 'REP' -- instead of carefully scanning the ballot for a particular candidate."

Sarasota Co. Supervisor of Elections Kathy Dent paired the two-candidate FL 13 race "on a screen with the larger and more prominent" FL GOV race, "potentially causing voters to miss the House race." After reading the Herald-Tribune analysis last week, Dent said "I really believe people missed it because it was sandwiched between two big races."

Jennings atty Sam Hirsch: "The argument that voters also get confused when too many candidates are listed on the same page strikes us as a tad insulting." Yet "a growing body of evidence is emerging that suggests ballot design was the primary cause" of the undervote.

Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project Dir. Ted Selker said that the Herald-Tribune's analysis "provides compelling evidence that a poor ballot layout is the root of the undervote." Since the 11/7 election, Selker has conducted his own tests of the ballots used in the four counties with the large undervote rates. Selker said "his initial results show the two-candidate race is missed" 60% of the time "when it's dwarfed by the list" of GOV candidates.

Although machine error "can't be completely ruled out as a cause of the large undervotes," there is "no evidence thus far that it was a factor." The Herald-Tribune "reviewed the results of every voting machine used during the election and found no pattern to the undervote totals." In retrospect, "a few faulty machines in a precinct" could have caused "an increase in undervotes on those bad machines." What's more, ""if every machine in the county had the same glitch, the undervotes should have been spread fairly evenly throughout the county and among voters." Yet, "neither proved to be true" (Sarasota Herald-Tribune).

Posted at 02:45 PM

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