December 12, 2006
TX 23 -- Dems Pull The Upset
It's official... AP has called TX 23. Ex-Dem Rep. Ciro Rodriguez is coming back to Congress. With 94% of precincts reporting, Rodriguez leads GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla 55-45%. The official makeup of the House is now 233D, 202R.
Frankly, not only is Rodriguez's victory a mild surprise (Bonilla fell just 2 points short of avoiding the runoff in November), the size is a shock. National Journal's Congressional guru Rich Cohen emails the following: a "very well-connected Democratic source told me today that the DCCC spent $1.5 million on the contest largely because they knew that Rodriguez, with his limited fundraising skills, could not win this on his own. So, this is as much (if not more) a victory for Rahm, as it is for Ciro."
Cohen also makes one other point. This is now the second seat in TX this cycle that has switched hands from the GOP to the Dems as a result of Tom DeLay's re-redistricting efforts. The other seat, of course, was DeLay's. So the net result for the GOP based on DeLay's re-redistricting was all of 2 seats. Was that really worth all the hassle and the subpoenas and courtroom dramas? Many a Republican is probably wondering that same thing tonight, in particular, soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Henry Bonilla.
Update: National Journal's Charles Mahtesian, who is the editor of the Almanac of American Politics, observes: "Take a look at these remarkable numbers in Maverick County. Bonilla won it with 59% in 2004, even as Kerry was carrying the county; Bonilla lost it 86-14% tonight. Maverick County is a border county and home to Eagle Pass, where the border fence issue was huge. Bonilla's vote in favor of a fence made an enormous difference here.
Talk about a mayor who knows his town. In a September newspaper story about the fence issue, here's a quote by Eagle Pass Mayor Chad Foster, 'It's kind of hard to support someone who wants to build a fence,' said Foster, who's also president of the Texas Border Coalition, a group of city and county officials. 'I'd say 95 percent of Maverick County agrees with me.' Turns out the guy was off by 9 points."
Posted at 10:31 PM
Comments
This win by the Democrats does not surprise me at all. The Republicans should make a plaque and send it to all Republicans in Congress and those who are anticipating to run in 08:
Pride goes before the Fall. Indictive of the 06 election - can you imagine working only two days a week. Gracious God, how arrogant can you be?
Joseph | 12.13.06 09:26 AM
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DeLay's plan did not net the GOP just two seats. Texas Democrats held 17 seats prior to redistricting - they now hold thirteen.
Ryan Goodland | 12.14.06 09:18 AM
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