January 2007

"I deeply regret any offense my remark in the New York Observer might have caused anyone. That was not my intent and I expressed that to Senator Obama." -- Sen. Joe Biden, in a statement.

“I didn’t take Senator Biden’s comments personally, but obviously they were historically inaccurate. African-American presidential candidates like Jesse Jackson, Shirley Chisholm, Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton gave a voice to many important issues through their campaigns, and no one would call them inarticulate.”

Anyone else wondering why AR Gov. Mike Huckabee isn't in the top tier? Is it simply Arkansas burnout?

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Per the Concord Monitor:

Hillary Clinton won't be visiting New Hampshire this weekend. The planned trip - which would have been Clinton's first visit to the Granite State in more than a decade - was postponed due to a family illness, said Karen Hicks, Clinton's national field director. Former president Bill Clinton's stepfather is sick, she said.

Let's get to the bottom of this Ralph Reed business once and for all.

Has Mitt Romney ever met Ralph Reed? "Yes," says Kevin Madden, Romney's spokesman.

Has Mitt Romney spoken with Reed over the past six months? Yes. Just once. They shook hands at the National Review Institute dinner last weekend.

Has Romney spoken with Reed more than once over the past six months. "No."

Is Reed an informal adviser to Romney's campaign? No.

Does he participate in calls the Romney campaign holds with outside advisers? "No."

Does Reed ever speak to Romney advisers? Yes. Reed's friend, Peter Flaherty, is Romney's deputy campaign manager for outreach. Flaherty's job is to stay in touch with conservative leaders.

Which candidate was Reed heard talking up at the National Review Institute? Not Romney. It was ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani, according to a person who discussed the presidential race directly with Reed. That induced "a number of odd looks and rolled eyes from many of the attendees," according to our source. [CHUCK TODD AND MARC AMBINDER]

Fortunate timing: Last evening, Sen. Barack Obama proposed a 10-month phased withdrawal plan from Iraq. U.S. troops would begin to start coming home in May, and combat troops would be fully redeployed by the first of April in 2008.

Timing, in politics, is more than everything: it's often the only thing. So why now, and not two weeks ago? Why wait until the week before you formally announce your presidential bid to introduce your most significant piece of Senate legislation to date? Obama's advisers portray it as the natural evolution of his Iraq policy. John Edwards's campaign, for one, retorts that Edwards evolved to that position more than a year ago.

In a June 2006 Obama floor speech, the Illinois senator suggested the idea of a date-certain withdrawal was not "responsible." And, indeed, in Obama's book, published later that fall, he called for troops to start leaving Iraq immediately. He did not provide an end date.

Academia is beginning to look like a beachhead for aspiring Democratic politicians.

The 2008 presidential field features Barack Obama, who spent more than a decade as a lecturer at the University of Chicago law school. Hillary Clinton spent a handful of her Arkansas years as an assistant professor at the University of Arkansas law school. The University of North Carolina provided John Edwards with a nice 2008 launching pad by creating the UNC Center on Poverty, Work and Opportunity for him after his failed 2004 vice-presidential bid. On Monday, the Drake University law school announced Tom Vilsack would teach a course on “legal issues related to rural development and renewable energy.”

This comes on the heels of the 2006 congressional elections, which saw a wave of Democratic academics running for office, including American University professor Allan Lichtman in Maryland’s open Senate race; Judy Feder, dean of Georgetown University's Institute of Public Policy, in Virginia’s 10th District; Brown University professor Jennifer Lawless in Rhode Island’s 2nd District; Case Western Reserve University law professor Lewis Katz in Ohio’s 14th District; University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee professor Bryan Kennedy in Wisconsin’s 5th District. There were perhaps a dozen more; if you count adjunct professors, the universe of Democratic candidates expands considerably. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]

Joe Biden called Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) to clarify his "clean" comment to the New York Observer, Biden told reporters in a conference call this afternoon. Biden said Obama told him: "You don't have to explain anything to me. I know exactly what you meant." Asked to clarify his comments, where he said Obama was "articulate and bright and clean," Biden said he "really" regretted the word "clean" was taken out of context. Biden: "My mother has an expression clean as a whistle sharp as a tack, that was the context." As to the effect it might have on the African-American vote, Biden: "I have no doubt that Jesse Jackson and other black leaders ... knew exactly what I meant. We have a very, very long relationship. ... There will be no misunderstanding."

Biden said of the Observer piece: "I believe I was quoted accurately but they weren't meant to take shots." As for his Democratic competition, Biden: "I think they're all great. I think I'm better."

When it comes to fundraising, Biden said he came up with his goal by looking at the situation backwards. Biden: "You have to get through those first four primaries. It's clear not all of us are going to be standing after South Carolina. So I went backwards. .. I believe that all I need is $20 million to make my case in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina." He added that if he wasn't standing after those four primaries it wouldn't matter if he'd raised $70M. He was also asked about Iraq: "I am the only person with a plan that can get us out of Iraq without our interests in the region falling apart."

Biden spoke to reporters for about 20 minutes before he had to leave to vote in the Senate. Most of the questions focused on the Observer piece. There were a few on Iraq and the upcoming campaign. As for his tendency to talk, Biden was asked if that could be a problem: "That will be for the voters to decide. I don't see it as a problem. You apparently see it." [EMILY GOODIN]

Details soon....

The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) will sit back, relax, and take stock of the presidential field in four months before deciding whether to run.

Republican Study Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring calls to say that Ex-Sen. Phil Gramm was the first person Rep. Jeb Hensarling invited to the Republican Study Committee's retreat this Friday -- well before he invited presidential candidates. Gramm is Hensarling's mentor, Dayspring said. Hensarling was exec. dir when Gramm was chairman of the Nat'l Republican Senatorial Committee. So as for Gramm speaking on behalf of Sen. John McCain, "Chairman Hensarling is thankful that the RSC will get to hear from Senator Gramm, and knows from years of experience that Phil Gramm speaks for Phil Gramm." [MARC AMBINDER]

The hardest candidacy to figure out of either party's presidential front-runners is that of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R).

Giuliani has shown simultaneous strength (in the polls) and weakness (slow on the staffing front) in these early stages of the primary race. It seems his interest in a presidential campaign fluctuates by the hour.

As someone who, at times, has been dismissive of the likelihood that Giuliani can win the GOP nod, I have found myself reconsidering that possibility after watching the ideological torture being inflicted on former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R).

As our biweekly White House rankings indicate, I believe Arizona Sen. John McCain is the GOP front-runner, because he is showing strength in finances, organization and the polls. And then there's the history: The GOP has nominated its second-place finisher from the previous primary battle in three of the last four contested nomination fights (1980, 1988 and 1996).

Still, it seems that the Republican Party has an opening for a conservative alternative to fill. National Review's Kate O'Beirne believes the GOP always ends up nominating the most "electable conservative" -- not just someone perceived as the "most electable" (e.g., McCain). But lately, Romney has become the candidate attempting to carve out the "electable conservative" niche with what some might label "born-again conservatism."

For Romney, this move has caused all sorts of grief because he's had to deal with Massachusetts-style flip-flopping charges. It's one thing to evolve ideologically from, say, a 1994 Senate race, but the current issue of the Weekly Standard detailing Romney's "conversion" on abortion since 2002 seems like a bit too quick of a move for some to take as genuine. Indeed, he's taking hits from Republican contenders both to the right and left of him; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback publicly question this allegedly campaign-inspired conversion, while McCain's friends quickly play up the convictions contrast. [CHUCK TODD]

Continue Reading On The Trail.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won't attend the Republican Study Committee's annual retreat in person Friday, but his campaign insists that it's not a deliberate snub. They're blaming overscheduling, and we';ve learned that they're sending a popular conservative in McCain's place: Ex-Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX), the balanced-budget hawk who is coordinating McCain's domestic policy for the campaign.

We'd hazard a guess that any RSC member who feels suitably snubbed enough not to support McCain probably had no intention of ever supporting him. Gov. Mitt Romney will also speak.

McCain this morning unveiled his House whip team: Reps. Fred Upton (MI), Spencher Bachus (AL), John Shadegg (AZ), John Shimkus (IL), Mark Kirk (IL) and Dan Lungren (CA).

Also: on the heels of Romney's trip to South Carolina, McCain's campaign will announce the endorsements today of a majority of Republicans in the SC House of Representatives -- 40 in all. This includes the South Carolina Speaker of the House and the Republican Majority Leader. The full list can be found after the jump. Finally: McCain today picks up the endorsement of the leader of the biggest anti-gun control group in Michigan, Chuck Perricone, also a former MI House Speaker.

Squibs:

Yes, instant video, YouTube, viral e-mailing, UGC (that's user generated content) -- it's all serving to keep presidential candidates on their toes. And everyone remotely familiar with politics today can point to a video that changed a race.

But is there a limit?

We ask because we once again received a video from a McCain booster featuring Mitt Romney's explanation for his abortion conversion. It juxtaposes Romney's now famous 1994 debate against Ted Kennedy with an interview he gave last week to ABC News's Terry Moran.

On the one hand, the more these contrasts are drawn, the more Romney's conversion seems elastic. Video and sound make the transformation all the more remarkable, and, if you're a conservative, potentially disburbing. George Allen could never get rid of Macaca, and Mitt Romney will never shake himself of that 1994 debate footage. (We imagine that YouTubers would have gone ga-ga over Michael Dukakis in a tank or George H.W. Bush on a supermarket checkout line.)

The difference here is that this latest video was not produced by McCain's campaign. Neither, to our knowledge, was the Bay Windows article controversy in December that turned Romney the visionary into Romney the having-to-explain-his-transformation guy.

Just as candidates find it very difficult to control their public image nowadays, campaigns find it very difficult to control the release of opposition research. And they may find it harder to manipulate media to caricature opponents. Imagine the 2004 campaign with endless YouTube videos of President Bush's Iraq war explanations. If Romney survives these next few months and manages to convince conservatives that he's real, what happens in late 2007, when McCain airs an ad with some heretofore undiscovered Romney flip-flop? Will the political world be to YouTubed to death to care? [MARC AMBINDER]

Sen. Obama announced by video; Sen. Clinton held three video Q and As. Sen. Joe Biden will split the difference. Tomorrow night, Biden will answer as many questions as he can via audio stream. (Send your questions to ASKJOE@JOEBIDEN.COM.

Fittingly, Biden spends most of his day doing what he loves to do: grilling folks at a Senate Foreign Relations committee hearing. Biden caps his announcement day with an appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and hosts a conference call with reporters at 2:15 pm ET. He'll travel to New Hampshire next Monday.

We'll release our updated 2008 White House rankings tomorrow for Democrats, where we've ranked Biden at number four, his highest ranking yet. Why? South Carolina, where he’s made inroads into the state legislature, Money, where he’s in a position to gobble up some old Kerry turkey and is sharing trial lawyers with John Edwards, and Iraq, where he’s the most knowledgeable guy in the room. But he talks too much: we’re told that SEIU officials last week found his answers at a vetting session “long-winded.”

On the day Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) formally becomes a presidential candidate, he previewed for the New York Observer why the Democratic candidate debates may be so exciting.

On Sen. Hillary Clinton:

“Everyone in the world knows her,” he said. “Her husband has used every single legitimate tool in his behalf to lock people in, shut people down. Legitimate. And she can’t break out of 30 percent for a choice for Democrats? Where do you want to be? Do you want to be in a place where 100 percent of the Democrats know you? They’ve looked at you for the last three years. And four out of 10 is the max you can get?”

On Sen. Barack Obama: "II mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that’s a storybook, man." But... “I don’t recall hearing a word from Barack about a plan or a tactic.”

On Sen. John Edwards: "I don’t think John Edwards knows what the heck he is talking about."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Gov. Mark Sanford: S.C. Needs Help To Become More Competitive

AZ Political News-- Lies, Lobbyists And Legislators

Capitol Fax -- The Renegade Master

Georgia Political Digest-- Hypocrisy And Politics A Mixed Drink

Iowa Politics-- Romney Names Siegrist, Kennedy As Iowa Advisers

JohnCombest.com -- Talent, McCaskill Campaigns Asked About Excessive Donors

NhNewslinks.com -- Anti-Escalation Group Stops In N.H., Targets GOP Senators

Quorum Report -- Texas Not Ready To Jump Onto Early Primary Bandwagon

Sayfie's Review -- Sentinel: Crist Seeks To Create Paper Trail For Elections

WisPolitics.com-- WisPolitics: State Of The State Coverage

Who decides who's the decider? That debate played out on TV last night:

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), on saying Bush is not the sole decider: "I didn't give him a slap. What I did was articulate the principle of the Constitution" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/30).

CNN's Henry: "The White House seems unfazed by the latest comments from Senator Specter, other lawmakers in both parties challenging those war powers" ("Situation Room," 1/30).

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), on Dems who are now critical of Iraq: "These are some of the same people that told us we ought to go into Iraq in the first place."

On Dems who voted for the original Iraq resolution: "To me, it was obviously foolish and didn't make sense. And, so, those who voted for it made a mistake, as most of them have admitted. That doesn't mean they can't do the job in the future. But I think it's an important test of judgment, whether somebody realized that Iraq clearly was not the right move in the fight against those that attacked us on 9/11. And that has to be factored in when you consider somebody for the office of president of the United States" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/30).

NBC's Gregory: "What we're really in the middle of though now is not just a legal battle, but a political battle. And I think Russ Feingold said it when he said this is a question of Congress's will and there are not even enough Democrats who have coalesced around the idea of cutting off funding to really oppose the surge or the war in general" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 1/30).

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "The simple fact of the matter is that the policy of this country needs to be decided. That decision is made by the government, by the Congress and by the president" ("NewsHour," PBS, 1/30).

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): "I don't think our founding fathers really believed that 535 members of Congress could micromanage a war. That's why we have a single commander-in-chief" ("NewsHour," PBS, 1/30).

I WILL DECIDE

Pres. Bush sat down with ABC's Stark. The net released a full transcript of the interview, portions of which aired across all ABC platforms:

Asked if his political capital is diminished: "The president's always got a pretty loud microphone and is able to get things done. But no question, the dynamic has changed and that the Congress has changed and that I'm going to be dealing with new leadership. And I've still got my friends in the Republican Party with whom I will work, but I've got a new group of leaders to work with, the speaker and the leader of the Senate. I'm looking forward to doing the best I can to work with them for the good of the country. And I hope they feel the same way."

On working with the Dems on the budget: "Hopefully, you know, they're not going to try to raise taxes. I'm going to work hard to make sure they don't. I've got a veto that will prevent them from raising taxes" (1/30).

RIGHT BACK AT YOU

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) was on "Hannity & Colmes" and was asked about a liberal bias in the media: "You're biased; you won't even let me talk" (FNC, 1/30). [EMILY GOODIN]

If there was one theme of Hillary's first trip to Iowa, it was "You go girl!" It's been three days since her "joke" and we still can't get enough of the psychoanalysis!

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Already three defeated GOP incumbents have announced they're coming back (or close to it) for more in '08. That may be welcome news for the DCCC.

-- Jim Ryun (R) announced this weekend he's in. Ryun ran an uninspired campaign against Rep. Nancy Boyda (D-KS 02), and fell victim to the anti-GOP environment. If popular State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R) jumps in, it could spark a bitter primary that could bloody the eventual nominee.

Jeb Bradley (R) is also eager for a rematch. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH 01) is one of the most vulnerable freshmen, but she had no trouble dispatching Bradley last cycle. And it's looking likely that Iraq will remain a major issue heading to '08.

Richard Pombo (R) is considering a repeat run, despite being upset by Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA 11). His ethical missteps and environmental views would again invite third-party attacks and money.

By choosing to run again, GOPers are making the races a choice between candidates instead of a referendum on the incumbent's record. That could be the best scenario the DCCC could ask for in these tough races. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney's campaign landed another pro-life verifier this afternoon. They've unveiled the endorsement of RNC member James Bopp, Jr., the long-time counsel for National Right to Life and other social consevative groups. Bopp has argued four times before the Supreme Court. He will be Romney's "Special Adviser on Life Issues." His statement speaks for itself:

Governor, Mitt Romney has stood side-by-side with those seeking to protect the weakest and most innocent of our society. In one of our country's most liberal states, he has acted to protect the sanctity of life. Governor Romney's record on fundamental life issues is one of not just words but action. I am proud to count myself among his supporters."

As in: I believe Romney. So should you.

BTW: Bopp spearheaded a resolution at the recent RNC winter meeting designed to poke Sen. John McCain in the eye: it repudiated his signature campaign finance legislation.

Need evidence that McCain isn't pandering to conservative intellectuals and the oil lobby? Here's what McCain said today on the Senate floor:

The number of individuals in Washington who reject the clear evidence of global warming appears to be shrinking as its dramatic manifestations mount. A large number of prominent scientists, industry leaders, environmentalists, state and local government officials, the faith-based community, and others agree that climate change is real and we must move quickly to address the problem in a meaningful and sustainable manner.

Won't the costs of fixing the problem overwhelm the benefits, Senator?

We recognize that many fear the costs of taking action. But there are costs to delay as well. Failure to implement significant reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions in the near term will yield only more climate change and a much harder job in the future. Simply stated, inaction is unsustainable.

To be sure, the number of conservative Republican elites who deny the reality of climate change..er..global warming, is dwindling. And McCain readily bragged today about the market-oriented principles he espouses. A solution, he said,

must utilize a market-based, economy wide Acap and trade@ system. It must limit greenhouse gas emissions and allow the trading of emission credits across the economy to drive enterprise, innovation and efficiency. This is the central component of our legislation. Voluntary efforts will not change the status quo, taxes are counterproductive, and markets are more dependable than regulators in effecting sustainable change.

We wonder: will global warming be more of an issue for Republicans than for Democrats?

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

Watch out, Obama. You're about to get squeezed.

-- As we noted 1/29, Romney is struggling to survive the big squeeze in the GOP primary. Among Dems, meanwhile, Clinton and Edwards have targeted Obama's biggest shortcoming, his inexperience, as they try to stall his early momentum.

-- Speaking in IA, Clinton notably touched on several issues she's handled for "decades." Edwards led the charge 1/29, noting that critics who said he was inexperienced in '04 "may have been right." When he ran in '04, he said, "I spent most of my time thinking about being a good candidate. These days I think about what I want to do as president." It's a risky strategy for both Clinton and Edwards, though. How much focus does Clinton want voters to put on her WH years? Can Edwards claim experience and get folks to forget many pillars of his '04 bid (Iraq vote, parternship with Kerry) at the same time?

-- As GOPers debate ideological comfort, Dems argue over experience. But much like Romney, Obama's survival will depend more on how he performs, than the attacks he draws from opponents.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) added IA advisers today to augment his exploratory cmte. Among them: House Speaker Brent Siegrist and former Rep. candidate (IA-01) Brian Kennedy. Calling IA "a critical state", Romney intends "to have a strong presence in Iowa." His new IA hires also include:

IA Director Gentry Collins: Former Political Dir. for the Republican Governors Assa., IA GOP Executive Dir. ('03-'04)
Political Dir. Jill Latham: WI GOP Political Director ('04)
Straw Poll Dir. Nicole Schlinger: President, founder of Captiol Resources, Inc.
Communications Dir. Tim Albrecht: Field staff on the Forbes 2000 presidential caucus, House Communications Dir. for IA House Speaker Christopher Rants.

Romney IA chair Doug Gross said Romney's new crew adds" experience and knowledge needed for a successful caucus campaign." Yet of Romney's presidential ambitions, Gross spoke vaguely: "As we begin looking toward a possible presidential campaign, this team will offer serious guidance..." (release).

From today's Hotline:

To date, at least three ousted House GOPers are pondering comebacks (Ryun, Bradley and Pombo). A word of warning to those seeking another try, since The Hotline began tracking House rematches ('98), there are have been nearly 200 House rematches, with just 10 (six last cycle) being successful. For complete lists of cycle-by-cycle rematches, click the corresponding year: 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006.

Keying off the NH Union Leader's announcement that ex-Presidents Bush and President Clinton would deliver a joint commencement address at the University of New Hampshire on 5/19, political sicentist and Hotline friend Dante Scala is quoted as saying that "The more Bush-41 and Bill Clinton appear together, the less vulnerable Hillary Clinton is to very vitriolic Republican attacks."

Which may be true. But arguably, it serves to reinforce what may be her biggest problem: Americans may be fed up with -- and will vote actively against -- the perpetuation of political dynasties. Without Pres. Clinton, Sen. Clinton would not be able to claim eight years' worth of White House experience. Without his father's connections, Pres. Bush might be a brush-clearing rancher. Forget the psychodynamics of sons or wives fighting their father or husbands' last battles: voters in presidential elections tend to be retrospective. Will they want another eight years of the Clintons? Or will they want -- after 24 years -- something new? Incidentally, political parties don't like dynasties either because they often privilege parochial concerns (family legacy, personal revenge) over party-building, ideological purity and substance. One reason why Sen. Clinton has so much trouble with the netroots today is that they blame Pres. Clinton for failing to build the Democratic Party and for undercutting the party's major constituencies -- think NAFTA and labor -- when it was politically convenient.

Still, Michael Barone wrote in the Wall Street Journal that there was at least one benefit to this "royalism," as he calls it: "

Only four of the 300 million living Americans has been president and probably only 10 or 12 more ever will be. We need as much knowledge of our presidential candidates as we can get and, if we get some of it by knowing their families as closely as we know the families of recent occupants of the White House, so be it

Squibs:

In a wide-ranging interview at DCCC HQ, Chair Chris Van Hollen said that Democrats will remain on the offense for 2008 while working to secure the seats of their most vulnerable incumbents.

He emphasized that the most effective way for freshman members facing tough races to win re-election is through strong constituent service and by reaching out to independent and Republican voters.

“The 100 hours legislative agenda resonated extremely well. Every one of those provisions has broad appeal,” said Van Hollen. “Now members constantly need to remind voters what they’ve been doing.”

Van Hollen singled out New Jersey and Michigan as two states where Democrats can remain on the offense for 2008. He named Reps. Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ 02), Tim Walberg (R-MI 07), and Joe Knollenberg (R-MI 09) as top targets for ’08.

The DCCC is also hiring new regional press secretaries much earlier than in past cycles.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Romney Campaigns In SC With Sen. DeMint

AZ Political News-- Lies, Lobbyists And Legislators

Capitol Fax -- Local Elections Roundup And Open Thread

Georgia Political Digest-- Kids Counting On Governor Perdue

Iowa Politics-- Gov. Vilsack Appointed Visiting Law Prof At Drake Law School

JohnCombest.com -- Combest: John Bowman And Claire McCaskill

NhNewslinks.com -- Anti-War Veterans Coming To N.H., Targeting Sununu And Gregg

Quorum Report -- Governor Wants More Hollywood To Texas

Sayfie's Review -- Daily News: Sen. Clinton Expects Many Return Trips To Florida, Campaign Official Says

WisPolitics.com-- Doyle To Focus On Health Care, Education In State Of The State

Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign now includes Mo Elleithee, a veteran of a half dozen major campaigns of the past eight years. Elleithee will be the campaign's senior spokesperson and will oversee its regional press shop. Elleithee, currently a partner at Hilltop Public Solutions, was the New Hampshire comm. dir for Sen. Bill Bradley's presidential campaign in '00, the NH comm. dir for Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark in '04, the nat'l press secretary for Sen. Bob Graham's presidential bid before Clark, and most recently, the comm. dir on Tim Kaine's successful VA governor campaign. (Elliethee also worked for Mark Warner's '01 GOV campaign.) He joins Phil Singer, the campaign's deputy communications director and nat'l spokesman, Kim Molstre, the campaign's long-term communications planner, and Howard Wolfson, the as-yet-untitled maestro of Clinton's public image.

There was a lot of talk about the Hillary Clinton joke, if it was a joke and if it was, was it funny:

Des Moines Register's Yepsen: "I think the joke was taken as a joke. I think it was part of a theme that I noticed over the weekend, where she would talk about, as a woman, she's running. She's not running as a woman, but one of the assets she brings to the campaign is that she has had experiences that other candidates have not had" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 1/29).

Washington Post's Kornblut: "The presence of Bill Clinton is everywhere when she is campaigning. He wasn't physically there this weekend ... but she referred to him all the time. ... What you saw with the bad men joke though was an example of the lurking potential for people to remember the bad Bill, and I can tell you the press conference was quite uncomfortable when the bad side reemerged. So, I think their goal now is to maximize the good Bill, minimize the bad Bill, and try and get the most out of the parts of the electorate who still really car for Bill Clinton" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 1/29).

HRC and John McCain were in San Antonio for the dedication of the new medical center. They sat down with CNN's Cooper in separate interviews:

HRC, on her cap the troops plan: "The cap is meant to sent a signal to the president, as is our efforts to get a resolution of disapproval, that he no longer has political support in the country and the Congress for pursuing this policy."

McCain, on the cap the troops plan: "I think I'm fairly well versed in military matters and tactics and strategy. I've been involved in it literally all my life in one way or another. But I can't tell you how many troops exactly are needed. I think it's pretty clear the number of troops we have isn't getting the job done. I think there's almost universal acceptance of that. So you put a cap on it so that the status quo remains, which is a steadily deteriorating situation?" ("AC 360," 1/29).

CNN's J. King, on the relationship between Clinton and McCain: "They get along quite well. We'll see how long that lasts" ("Situation Room," 1/29).

MORE PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Mike Huckabee was in the "Situation Room":

Asked how it could hurt his WH bid by aligning with Bush on Iraq: "I don't think it's going to hurt, because I'm not aligning myself with the president, as much as I am with the troops and the fact that the president has to be able to carry out his strategy" (CNN, 1/29).

ABC's Moran spent a day in IA with Mitt Romney and interviewed him about his religion:

Asked if he would describe himself as a "devout Morman": "Absolutely. I'm proud of my faith. It's part of my heritage. I think the American people respect individuals of faith. That's the kind of person they wanna lead the country."

More: "We don't judge a candidate based on the theology of the religion they grew up in. My family's heritage is in our faith, and I'm proud of that. But I'm not gonna go through in cafeteria style, talk about each doctrine, and which I accepted. That's not the nature of a campaign."

Romney: "My church leadership has never tried, in any way that I know of, to ever suggest, certainly to me, or to the other leading politicians in this country, like Harry Reid, the leading Democrat in the nation, is a Mormon. The church doesn't try and tell him what to do or influence him. Again, when you take the oath of office, you're highest responsibility is to follow the constitution and the rule of law. And that's something to which I subscribe."

Asked about his changing position on abortion: "We all learn from experience. And I'm just like other people in this nation. Not everything I believed 12 or 13 years ago is the same today, with regards to the issue of abortion. And so about two years ago, I said I am pro-life. And prior to that time, I had a different position" ("Nightline," 1/29).

YOUR SCOOTER LIBBY UPDATE

MSNBC's Shuster: "The testimony was the most dramatic and compelling that the jury has heard in this entire case. Ari Fleischer testified that he went to lunch with Scooter Libby and that during this lunch, Scooter Libby told him that Valerie Wilson was the wife of an administration critic and that she worked at the CIA. This is very significant for the prosecution case because, again, it shows that Scooter Libby knew about Valerie Wilson before a conversation with a reporter, when Libby says he first learned about Valerie Wilson from that reporter" ("Hardball," 1/29).

DEFENDING BOTH IRAQ AND HIS VEEP

Pres. Bush sat down with NPR's Williams.

On VP Cheney's defense of Iraq: "I think that the vice president is a person reflecting a half-glass-full mentality, and that is he's been able to look at -- as have I, and I hope other Americans have -- the fact that the tyrant was removed, 12 million people voted, there is an Iraqi constitution in place that is a model for -- and unique for the Middle East."

More: "One of the things I have found here in Washington amongst those who were skeptical about whether the Iraqis will do what it takes to secure their own freedom, is to remind them of what would happen if there's failure. In other words, there would be chaos. If we did not work to secure Baghdad and help the Iraqis to secure Baghdad, the country could evolve into a chaotic situation, and out of that chaos would emerge an emboldened enemy."

On not mentioning Hurricane Katrina in his SOTU: "I gave a speech that I thought was necessary to give. On the other hand, I had been talking a lot about Katrina and about the fact that I worked with the Congress to get about $110 billion sent down to both Mississippi and Louisiana to help them on their reconstruction efforts. Obviously, there is more work to be done."

Williams: "By the way, in the speech, you spoke about the Democrats. You said, you congratulated the Democrat majority. And I notice your prepared text said Democratic majority. I surely think that you know that for the Democrats, they think when you say Democrat, it's like fingernails on the blackboard. They don't like it. They like you to say Democratic."

Bush: "Yeah. Well, that was an oversight then. I mean, I'm not trying to needle. Look, I went into the hall saying we can work together and I was very sincere about it. I didn't even know I did it."

More: "I'm not that good at pronouncing words anyway" (1/29). [EMILY GOODIN]

The New York Times account of the recent ouster of Democrat John S. Wilder, the powerful Tennessee Senate Speaker who was nation’s longest serving state legislative leader, should serve as a reminder that the best legislative leadership skullduggery is often found not in Congress, but in the nation’s statehouses.

In the end, Wilder, who served as Speaker since 1971, was done in by one of his Democratic colleagues, who cast her vote for GOP Senator Ron Ramsey. Ramsey is the first Republican in 140 years to lead the Senate, a position that in Tennessee also makes him the lieutenant governor.

The Times sees the 85-year-old Wilder’s downfall as a historic shift in power, another sign of rising Republican strength in Southern state politics. That’s true, of course, but Wilder would be more accurately described as a casualty of modern legislative politics, where there’s no longer a place for consensus-minded pols like him.

“Governor Wilder”, as he is referred to in Nashville, has a long history of bipartisan dealmaking. Some of it furthered his own political interests, but no one denies that he was fixated on the idea of legislative comity. Wilder went so far as to name some Republicans as committee chairmen while they were in the minority. The respect was mutual: When the GOP captured a one-vote Senate majority in 1995, the party voted to keep him in his position. Around that time, the legislature passed a resolution naming a new state golf course after Wilder, leading capitol insiders to joke that that one of the course rules would be to require bipartisan foursomes.

Three members of Tennessee’s U.S. House delegation – Reps. Marsha Blackburn, Steve Cohen and Lincoln Davis – served with Wilder before they arrived in Washington; Wilder was also Lamar Alexander’s lieutenant governor, two decades before Alexander was elected to the U.S. Senate. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]

That's the title of a release we got from the Ex-NY Gov's Freedom PAC today.

Here's Pataki's plan in a nutshell:

"Governor Pataki opposes the troop surge proposed by President Bush unless the Iraqi government accomplishes four concrete measures: fairly allocating oil revenues to the entire country, allowing former Baathists (other than high-level agents or criminals) civil rights including the right to hold office, improving and expanding the Iraqi national army, and clearly showing its willingness to disarm extremist sectarian armies and militias. Under Governor Pataki’s plan, U.S. soldiers would withdraw from civil war in Baghdad and elsewhere unless the Iraqi government takes these clear steps to bolstering its own democratic institutions and providing safety and security for its own people."

Ret. Gen. Jay Garner said the plan "has the potential to bridge the gap between Congress and the White House."

The plan may be valorous, but how little ink will it get? And when will we know more about whether the ambitious, tax-cutting New York governor will open an exploratory committee, further balkanizing the centrist portion of the Republican primary electorate.

Students For Brownback has more than 2000 members.

Here's our earlier post.

From CongressDailyPM:

Former Rep. Jim Ryun, R-Kan., confirmed this afternoon he would run again for Congress next year, and picked up early encouragement for his comeback attempt – but he still faces the possibility of a strong primary challenge. Ryun -- who lost a re-election bid last November to now-Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda -- said in an interview that he had been mulling another run for the House, but wanted to wait until the state GOP’s annual Kansas Days gathering this past weekend to gauge support and reveal his intentions. “I needed time to reflect on the last election and see what kind of support I had,” Ryun said.

After holding the seat since 1996 Ryun – a onetime Olympic runner -- lost the state’s 2nd District to Boyda by a 51-47 percent margin last year. Ryun said he would soon be back on the campaign trail “full time,” and described his defeat as an election anomaly in a bad political year for Republicans. “There was a surge that came through,” he said. “I was on the wrong corner ad the wrong time.” Ryun, a social and fiscal conservative, demurred on the question of possible primary opposition; state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins is mulling the race. Ryun instead trained his rhetorical fire on Boyda, whom he said does not represent the “Kansas values.” Declared Ryun: “She’s not a conservative. She’s a liberal.” [MARK WEGNER]
'

This week on Hotline TV, we bring you the drama that is the real West Wing.

Visit HotlineTV.net for this week's big show, the latest news and predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes!

From today's Hotline:

Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) early internet strategy is producing some big numbers. According to Alexa her official campaign post-announcement daily page views maxed out at around 39 mil. (compared to about 13 mil. for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and about 11 mil, for John Edwards). HRC is also outdistancing the competition in blog mentions according to Technorati which shows 165K HRC blog mentions (compared to 61K for Obama, and 74K for Edwards). For more, see today's Blogometer.

Still growing.

The One Million For Barack Obama Facebook group has more than 159,000 members now, easily the largest accumulation of student support for any '08 candidate.

Is this significant? Joe Trippi, the pioneering interenet strategist, wrote in our Facebook group that

Jim Brayton who is running all things Internet related for Obama is one of the best from the Dean campaign. I do not doubt that he has the talent. It took me two weeks of bitter infighting in the Dean campaign to get the campaign to link to Meetup.com. IIt takes absolutely no work to link to Facebook -- and it is online 101 to do it. I believe that Obama can run an online campaign that makes the Dean campaign look like it was standing still. I still think they will -- but time is the enemy not the friend.

There's no comparison.

The One Million For Hillary Clinton group has about 1,400 members.

The largest Mitt Romney group we could find had 2,863 members. A separate "Students For Mitt" group has about 540 members.

"Muscleboy2008" from Arkansas has started a Clinton-Obama in '08 group

Sen. Chris Dodd's group has all of 116 members.

Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)'s group has a healthy 226 members.

We couldn't find an overarching John Edwards group, but we did find separate Edwards groups for every state -- like Virginians for Edwards.

Points made by Service Employees International Union members and ex-com members about this weekend's in-person interviews with the Democratic presidential candidates:

1. Sen. Barack Obama was regarded as the most impressive, both in terms of substance and style. Then again, many members were meeting him for the first time.

2. Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John Edwards came off well. Both stressed their desire for a fast march to universal health care coverage, rather than an incremental amble. Clinton reminded members that she sponsored a bill to tie Congressional salary increases to the minimum wage. Edwards reminded members that he'd campaign in more than a half dozen states for minimum wage ballot initiatives, and called universal health care an urgent priority. Clinton came off as "personable" and "engaging," which impressed members.

A senior SEIU official said Edwards made clear that he has "grown" as a candidate and learned lessons from his last run.

3. Sen. Joe Biden, according to two participants, was "long-winded."

4. Members and officials made it clear that a national SEIU endorsement isn't a sure thing. The process will take at least six more months and an endorsement decision wouldn't be made until Sept. '07. These officials said they also planned to consult with their Republican members and reach out to Republican presidential candidates as well.

MyDD's Matt Stoller is on the campaign trail with SEIU president Andy Stern, who is asking every presidential candidate seeking SEIU's endorsement to spend a day working the job of an SEIU member. [RIKI PARIKH AND MARC AMBINDER]

Knock your Sox off? Or just... "eh..."...

From WEEI-AM's "Dennis and Calahan Show" in Boston this a.m.

Schilling:

“But I’m actually kind of excited about the fact that I think Senator McCain is going to do something official here, and he’s going to be the man I’m going to back as we move forward here, for sure, in this next round.”

McCain's first nat'l field event will be held in Massachusetts, the home state of rival Mitt Romney.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Romney Picks Up Big Names In Charleston

AZ Political News-- Hollywood, D.C. Media Firms Join McCain Election Team

Capitol Fax -- Morning Shorts

Georgia Political Digest-- MItt Romney Coming To Town

Iowa Politics-- Clinton Campaigns Against Troop Surge

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Romney Will Headline GOP Dinner Here

NhNewslinks.com -- Cullen Wins NH GOP Chairmanship

Quorum Report -- Robinson: Moderate In Conservative Clothing?

Sayfie's Review -- Daily News: Sen. Clinton To Make Naples Campaign Stop

WisPolitics.com-- State Of The State: Doyle Has A Longer Wish List

It was '08ers a plenty on the Sunday shows this weekend. And the main topic continues to be Iraq:

Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) made his WH announcement on "Meet the Press":

Huckabee: "Tomorrow I'll be filing papers to launch an exploratory committee, and yes, I'll be out there."

On Pres. Bush: "He's had a lot of struggles, particularly in managing the, the war in Iraq. We did a great job of going in and toppling Saddam Hussein. The tough part has been bringing some sense of stability there. And so it's been a struggle for the president. I think the domestic agenda has also been something that's almost been ignored and overlooked because we have spent so much of a time on Iraq."

More: "That's a dangerous position to take, to oppose a sitting commander in chief while we've got people being shot at on the ground. I think it's one thing to have a debate and a discussion about this strategy, but to openly oppose, in essence, the strategy, I think that can be a very risky thing for our troops."

On his GOV record: "I was the first governor in the history of my state to ever lower taxes, the first one in 160 years. We lowered a total of 94 different taxes and fees. We did things that streamlined and made government more efficient. But we were under a Supreme Court order to raise revenue for our schools. We did it, but with the insistence that we wouldn't just raise money, we would raise standards and expectations, and we did. ... Did we raise taxes on fuel? Yes, but 80 percent of the people voted on it because it was on the ballot. So it wasn't that I raised it. I joined with 80 percent of the people in my state to improve what was the worst road system in the country. Now we're rated as having one of the best. Those are the kind of things that I'm being criticized for, but no one can question the conservative record over 10 ½ years when you look at what we've done in terms of not only restructuring but also in, in trying to bring some level of responsibility, except for those areas we couldn't control: Medicaid, prisons and, and, and then education funding that was court ordered." [EMILY GOODIN]

Fresh from his first taping of "Meet the Press" in almost five years, AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) announced Sunday morning that he’ll be filing WH exploratory cmte papers on Monday. Starting Tuesday he’ll swing through IA and FL before heading to SC and NH next week.

Trying out his stump speech to conservatives at the National Review Summit, Huckabee emphasized his GOV experience while presenting himself as a fresh take on conservatism. And despite an already crowded Republican field, Huckabee insisted he’s still got something unique to offer.

“There’s still room for someone who is southern, a conservative and has a governor’s experience,” Huckabee told a crowd of about 100 people.

He may have a point. Many conference GOPers said that their two favorite speakers of the weekend were ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) and ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush (R) – both southern conservatives – and not the headliner last night, MA Gov. Mitt Romney. And despite a thorough account of his conversion moment on stem cell research and abortion, Romney’s speech could not rile the crowd like the former Speaker, or so said many attendees.

Notably absent from Huckabee’s 20 minute announcement though was talk on any social issues.

“I don’t think I need to go in there and authenticate my credentials on same sex marriage,” he told reporters later.

But there are some non-believers on Huckabee’s conservative credentials. The Club for Growth announced they’ll release a report Monday on Huckabee’s record. Though the Club says they’ll be generating reports for all of the candidates, a Club for Growth spokesperson said Huckabee was a good person to start with given an executive record that some conservatives believe was less than, well, conservative [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Catching up with the Hillary coverage from Iowa yesterday, I have found it fascinating that she decided to embrace the gender aspect of her candidacy. Iowa hasn't been kind to female candidates for anything... ever. That said, I think it's a smart strategy; The only way Clinton can be a "change" candidate is by emphasizing her gender. If not, she's a candidate of the past, not the future. [CHUCK TODD]

Thoughts? Join our Facebook group and interact.

EX-MA Gov. Mitt Romney delivered a wide-ranging speech to the National Review Summit Saturday evening in which he introduced himself to dining conservatives. He used the speech to explain changed some of his positions on social issues while in office.

“And I’ve changed my view on that, as some of you probably know,” Romney said to a hushed crowd. He went on to describe his now well-publicized conversion moment: when a Harvard professor visited his office to tell him and his chief of staff about the process of harvesting stem cells for research. [SHIRA TOPELITZ]

DES MOINES - A bumper sticker hangs from Aggie Snyder’s refrigerator in Des Moines. It’s been there for a couple of years – just waiting for Snyder to put it on her vehicle. The Hillary Clinton bumper sticker holds fond memory for the retired nurse.

Snyder was among a large crowd attending the New York senator’s booking signing that swung through Iowa. The Des Moines Democrats recalls that day vividly as she was nearly asked to leave because she was loud and
boisterous in urging the former First Lady to seek the Oval Office.

“I kept screaming, ‘Run, Hillary Run,” Snyder said. “I about got thrown out because I was so vocal. I truly thought she could beat (President George W.) Bush.”

It’s likely the Democratic senator remembers the Des Moines woman’s insisting she take her campaign to the next level. However, Snyder saw her dream come true Saturday at East High School in Des Moines.

Synder, who walks with the assistance of a cane, braved the cold temperatures and slick road and sidewalk conditions to see her vision become a reality.

“I have followed Hillary very closely,” she said. “It is a very happy day for me.”

Sen. Clinton made her exploratory announcement last Saturday, and she has Snyder’s support. And, it isn’t because she is a woman, the retired nurse insisted.

“I think she is very smart and can fix what Bush has messed up,” Snyder said. “I knew it was a matter of time and here she is.”

Snyder was one of the first people through the doors at East High School. The doors for the event were scheduled to open at 11:30 a.m., an hour before the senator’s scheduled arrival. But, the high school gymnasium was
nearly packed by 11:20 a.m. From the appearance of gymnasium’s appearance, one could not tell Clinton is polling tied for third with former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack in Iowa, according to the last Zogby Poll.

The crowd was a blend of senior citizens and young children attending the event with their parents. High in the bleachers was a young child, about preschool age, smiling as she proudly held a Children 4 Clinton sign. In
another part of the gymnasium was Marcella Mujic, a 17-year-old foreign exchange student from Bosnia.

Mujic learned this week from her Roosevelt High School teacher that the senator would be speaking down the road. It was an opportunity she did not want to miss.

“I really wanted to see her and what she is talking about,” said Mujic, who admits she follows American politics closely. “I liked her husband (former President Bill Clinton) and I wanted to see if she is as great.”

Congressman Leonard Boswell, D-Des Moines, introduced the senator to the large crowd, which hundreds of other attending the event had to be moved to an overflow room due to space limitations.

“She was a great First Lady and is a great U.S. Senator,” the congressman said. “She went back to her state in November and they re-elected her with 67 percent of the vote. Hillary, we wish you success, let the conversation
begin.”

Sen. Clinton, like many of the candidates are using new technology such as web casts on the internet and web sites to deliver their campaign messages, but she vowed to return to the old school ways of visiting with
Iowans in their living rooms, church suppers, town halls, etc. – the foundation for which brought the Iowa Caucuses to prominence and followed by the national media.

“I am going to do it the old fashioned way in living rooms and church basements,” she said. “I want to have this one-on-one communication.”

It was a communication Snyder has been longing to hear. It is conversation Americans has desired for the past six years, Clinton cited in reference to the Bush Administration. That is a conversation that has been one-sided
for the last six years, Clinton said.

No Child Left Behind was discussed several times in the town hall meeting and Des Moines teacher Alan Young said the federal government should seek more input from teacher and administrator – those who work the most
closely with students before handing down questionable legislation.

“We need to develop human beings and citizens,” Young said, “and teach them how to be productive in a Democratic society – and not just someone who is judged on test scores.”

Sen. Clinton agreed stating the legislation much be readdressed by the next president.

“Test scores do not equate to learning,” she said. They can record a measure of time, she added.

The large crowd from Central Iowa also witnessed a significant media frenzy, which saw familiar faces from network television. But, the senator also drew an international media audience, including four of the largest
news outlets in Great Britain. The reason for the British press corps is due to Sen. Clinton’s name recognition, said Andrew Buncombe, a reporter with British newspaper, The Independent.

Universal health care, reducing the country’s dependency on foreign oil and improving education have been hot topics along the campaign trail. Sen. Clinton touched on them all citing the importance of making of all
them a reality. However, when it comes to the former First Lady, she addressed what many in the nation have asked. Can a woman be elected president?

“I am going to try with your help,” she said. “I am going to ask people to vote for who would make the best president.”

And, she said she has a lifetime of experiences that best suit her to assume the Oval Office in January 2009.

"I am running for president and I am in it to win it," Sen. Clinton said. [CHRIS DORSEY]

Dorsey is a reporter for Iowa Politics.com, a member of the Hotline Political Network. For more, go to www.iowapolitics.com.

MANCHESTER, NH -- A week before Frank Santos, "The R-Rated Hyptonist" takes the stage in at the Palace Theater in Manchester, New Hampshire, former New York Mayor Rudoph Giuliani devlivered a subdued speech to the state Republican annual meeting.

Giuliani, whose heralded appearance helped draw more than 500 state Republicans to the conclave, touched on his copyrighted issues of reducing crime, reforming welfare and, of course, leading New York through the attacks of September 11th.

The former mayor, accompanied by his wife Judith, suggested again that he will make his decision on whether to run for the White House when he's answered the questions, "Can you take the things you've done and do a better job?"

"Can you do a better job?" is the essential question, he says. If so, Giuliani ought to be jumping in soon.

In his 30 minute speech, Guliani recited a long list of things he did as mayor of New York and applied them successfully to the city in a speech with long stretched without applause or laughter. The New Hampshire crowd, eager for some lift after suffering historic losses at every level in November was stirred only when
Giuliani made odes to freedom, low taxes, and New York's firefighters. His obligatory nod to the state's "Live Free or Die" motto early on was rarely matched again in the laugh-free adress. The Upper East Side Republican made no mention of social issues.

Normally cadging 100k a pop for his leadership speeches around the nation, Giuliani wound up with a page from the inspirational speakers playbook by paying tribute to the power of optimism because "optimists have more fun."

In the scrum from stage to SUV, Giuliani said again that he had no timetable for making a decision on making a run, but that he would be traveling to California, South Carolina and Texas in the next two weeks.

New Hamshire supporters for candidates Tom Tancredo, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Duncan Hunter mingled among the crowd of state party regulars with signs and stickers. Few activists sported "Team Rudy" stickers. Operatives for the campaigns were seeking commitments from crucial locals. A poll state legislators by
former

Giuliani's meeting early in the day with star Republican, Manchester mayor Frank Guinta, was not likely to result in an endorsement. The first-term local leader has been cautioned by his circle of advisers that mayors only court trouble when they get enmeshed in presidential politics, which in the Granite State can become lethally local.

The crowd was capable of traditional political tub-thumping enthusiasm. It roared with approval shortly after Giuliani left when former Congressman Jeb Bradley announced that he will seek to recpature the seat he narrowly lost in November after 2 terms. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]

This weekend, the 60-member SEIU exec. board is meeting with 8 Dem WH candidates during their annual exec. board meeting this weekend at Gallaudet University. On Friday, they met with Sens. Clinton, Biden, Edwards, Obama and Kucinich.

SEIU, you'll recall, is the largest most innovative union in the country.

SEIU Sec./Treas. Anna Burger said that the ’08 cycle “has allowed time for candidates to learn more about our members and our members about our candidates.” The union is starting the endorsements process so early so that SEIU can be part of the primary process and “make them the best candidate they can be for working families,” she said.

The candidates were given as much time as they took to speak and answer questions about the “issues of the working family,” which include health care, social security, immigration, and the war. The Dems’ three leading candidates—Clinton, Obama, and Edwards—impressed the members, said one attendee; Obama and Edwards even took an important step and “worked the crowd.” (One attendee implied that Sen. Biden talked too much.) Two attendees said that Obama's answers to questions, particularly on health care, impressed members of the executive committee the most.

The response from the Dem candidates so early shows how important the labor vote is, especially with the union-heavy IA and NV listed as an early primary state.

On 3/24, SEIU and the Center for American Progress will host a bipartisan health care forum in Las Vegas with the Center for American Progress.

As part of SEIU endorsement process, candidates will spend a day with a member in IA or NH to “experience what they experience.” Burger: “We think that it's really important for all candidates, Democrats or Republicans, to spend time with our members learning what it feels like to be worried about your kids having a worse life.” Candidates will also answer specific questions that will be distributed by videotape to the SIEU’s 2M members.

Burger said that she did not expect an endorsement to come out before Sept. and that the SEIU will look engage all of their members and look at both Dem and GOP candidates. [RIKI PARIKH]

Other Weekend Shows

We assume it is only a matter of hours before word leaks out of how various WH '08 Dems did before the SEIU board. But until we get some solid leaks, here are some photos from SEIU to pass the time.

Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks.

Fighting The Cold
Yes, President Bush delivered his State Of The Union happened last week. Yes, it may have seemed as if every aspect of it was covered. Yet AEI's Michael Novak does a double-take, suggesting one issue was overlooked. Hint: Pres. Bush seemed "strangely confident."

Coincidence? He Thinks Not
Heritage Foundation's Michael Franc wonders why politicians weren't more frank while discussing SOTU. Although Bush may have spoke bluntly, the speech still required some reading between the lines -- those who failed to, Franc suggests, missed Bush's bottom line. No matter how one rates the White House's handle on Iraq, there's at least one conclusion everyone may take pride in.

Saving The Best For Last?
If you could edit one section of last week's SOTU, what would it be? Over at the Cato Institute, a group of scholars play editor and publisher. Which issues do they dismiss vs. dwell over? Whether you share their opinions, it's a quick read for what they consider a good deed.

That Lovin' Feelin'
AEI's David Frum wonders whether Bush has lost his passion for progress. If not, he believes there are "two President Bushes". It's expected, Frum asserts, that a president hits his limits in his sixth or seventh year of office. That said, America cannot handle "trying to stretch too little sheet over too much bed." Frum lays out four requirements he believes any president should fulfill -- a split personality being no exception.

This week on Hotline TV, we survey the nation's governors' races in '08 with stops in bellweather MO, GOP pickup opportunities WA and NC, somehow safe MT and VT, and IN Gov, Producer Reid's favorite race of the year.

Visit HotlineTV.net for this week's big show, the latest news and predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes!

IowaPolitics.com reports that Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson told WHO radio this a.m. that GOPers "must carry" MI, WI, IA and MN if they hope to become president, and "said he's the best candidate to do that."

His proposals on Iraq:
1) The new Iraqi government separate into three distinct governments -- Sunni, Shiite, and Kurds
2) Iraqis request the U.S. maintain its presence
3) Iraqis receive one-third of Iraq's oil revenues

Yet perhaps in an effort to show IA his interests extend beyond politics, Thompson heads to Iowa City 1/28 to attend the Wisconsin-Iowa basketball game at Carver-Hawkey Arena.

The award for the first presidential ad of the cycle goes to...

Can you guess?

Although he's not generally known for making the senatorial talk-show circuit, Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) nevertheless appeared on Imus this morning. Although he was not asked about his health or plans for re-election, it's hard not to wonder if the timing of the booking is completely coincidental. Just yesterday (1/25), the Politico had a piece on the aging of the Senate and focused in excruciating detail on Domenici's health problems. Although Domenici mostly talked about Iraq this a.m., his appearance may have more to do with reassuring NM voters (and others) of his mental alertness and fitness in office.

We wouldn't be surprised if Mike Huckabee announced his candidacy for WH '08 this weekend. He's making his first appearance on Meet the Press since February of 2001, according to Nexis search. He's also addressing the National Review Conservative Summit in DC that morning.

On Tuesday, Huckabee starts a five-city tour of Iowa. In addition to the a few radio shows, the events aren't all the usual county GOP fare -- many of the stops are labeled as "Meet Mike Huckabee" events.

And we hear from a local Arkansas activist that he's setting up one-on-one phone calls with state Republicans today... [SHIRA TOEPLITZ and EMILY GOODIN].

(Hap Tip: Arkansas Times)

In Shailagh Murray’s front-page Washington Post profile of Chuck Hagel today, the Nebraska senator mentions the possibility that he’ll join a “unity ticket” with a Democratic running mate. Murray doesn’t say so, but Hagel isn’t just musing--he has a specific outfit in mind. That outfit is Unity08, an internet-based third-party recently founded by veterans of the Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford administrations that’s designed to bring about the kind of bipartisanship that continues to elude Washington. The current issue of The Atlantic features Joshua Green’s profile of the Unity08 founders and explains why Hagel’s third-party flirtation isn’t (quite) as farfetched as it initially might seem.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Duncan Hunter Joins Presidential Race From SC

AZ Political News-- Hollywood, D.C. Media Firms Join McCain Election Team

Capitol Fax -- Revelations Appear To Back Up Corruption ...

Georgia Political Digest-- Chambliss Supports Bush Troop Increase Plan With Conditions

Iowa Politics-- Obama Names 2 Iowa Staffers

JohnCombest.com -- AP: Bush Visit To KC Will Promote Health Care Plan

NhNewslinks.com -- Critics Mock Rep.'s Marriage Law Proposal

Quorum Report -- Bush Focuses On The Home Front

Sayfie's Review -- Sentinel: Senators Voice Iraq Doubts

WisPolitics.com-- Thompson Campaign Names Schmitz National Political Director

From today's Hotline:

DC superlawyer Bob Barnett can claim five current WH '08 candidates as clients. If Wes Clark announces, it will be six. And this doesn't count Bill Frist and Evan Bayh.

As the Democratic world turns its attention to Colorado in anticipation of the 2008 convention, here’s a name to keep in mind: Tim Gill. Gill, who made his fortune founding the desktop-publishing company Quark, Inc., is the country’s largest gay political donor (and one of its largest donors, period) and played a major role in the state’s continuing move from red to blue. He ranks among the most influential and least-known major donors—and prefers it that way. This past cycle Gill funded races and ballot initiatives across the country.

Signaling that he has no plans to slow down, his political outfit, Gill Action Fund, is opening up shop in Washington, D.C. The new office will be led by the bipartisan team of chief operating officer Robin Brand, a veteran of the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, and national political director Bill Smith, a veteran of Karl Rove & Company who has done work for the Log Cabin Republicans. [JOSHUA GREEN]

Ignore what we wrote: Lachlan McIntosh is still the exec. dir of the SC Dem party and does not work for Sen. John Edwards.

Over the Christmas holidays, Ret. Gen. Wes Clark told a close friend that, without a doubt, he would establish a presidential exploratory committee after the first of the year. And now?

A Clark adviser says the '04 candidate is "leaning towards setting up an exploratory then taking some time to explore." Clark accepted an invitation to speak at next weekend's DNC winter meeting in DC, along with the rest of the Democratic field. In addition, a major Democratic donor said that Clark has begun to make telephone calls to party donors."

Clark has popped up on television to discuss the Iraq surge and John Kerry's departure from the race. There were some awkwardly-phrased comments about Jewish political donors in New York.

Clark recognizes that he got in too late in 2003. And he's arguably the most qualified to confront issues of war and peace in these turbulent times. Is February of 2007 equivalent to September of 2003? What an absurd question -- of course not.

But then again, when you think about it, it's hard to divine a compelling justification for Clark to take his time in a field that includes foreign policy heavyweights (Biden), a Clinton (remember how Clark was encouraged to run by Pres. Bill Clinton's friends and donors?) a Southerner (Edwards) and a breath of fresh air (Obama?)

Here's what Clark told Neil Cavuto a few days ago: "Well, I haven't made a decision on that yet. I haven't said I won't run, but for me it's about the message. I'm very concerned about where this country's heading."

January hasn't been a kind month to Republicans. It started off with a wave of positive press for the new Democratic majority, followed by the unveiling of President Bush's surge plan for Iraq, which is not getting, um, rave reviews, and on the presidential campaign front, the Republican candidates have seen themselves overshadowed by the dual entrances of Democratic frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

With the State of the Union out of the way and the Clinton/Obama news subsiding, there should be an opening for the frontrunning Republicans (namely John McCain and Mitt Romney) to start doing their "why I am running" announcements--finally something the average Republican can look forward to.

1. John McCain

His national approval ratings among adults have dropped slightly over the past few months, and he’s begun to trail Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in some head-to-head polls. Why? The war. But the McCain Inevitability Train, as we like to call it, rolls on. His Iowa team has the strength at the top to win or place second in Ames, and then in the caucuses themselves. And is there a single major elected office-holder in South Carolina (sans Sen. Jim DeMint) that McCain has neither signed up nor kept from endorsing anyone else? Almanac Profile

Continue reading the Hotline's Race Rankings.

V was a hodge podge of topics last night, ranging from the Iraqi debate in Congress to the the Western primaries:

CNN's Bash: "Since the vote was cast in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee yesterday, what we have seen is those who support sending troops to Iraq trying to figure out a way to blunt the impact of any resolution or resolutions that will be on the Senate floor in the next week or two. John McCain, of course, has been one of the most vocal supporters of a troop increase. And what he said is that he is trying to come up with a resolution that would perhaps issue some benchmarks for the Iraqi people and also in some way increase Congress' oversight on this issue" ("Situation Room," 1/25).

Newsweek's Alter: "Actually, the leadership in the Senate on the Republican side, minority leader McConnell and Trent Lott, his deputy, and quite a number of other Republicans who are not on that committee are hanging in there with the White House. So this thing is not a slam dunk, but it does seem like the votes are there for John Warner's nonbinding resolution. He's a very, very eminent Republican senator, and he's going to bring a bunch of them over with him. So they will get some kind of resolution when they debate this on the floor next week" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 1/25).

PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), on his WH run: "We won the Arizona Straw Poll, and that surprised everybody. And, you know, as I start to talk about issues of strong national defense, border control, two-way street on trade, I think that's going to resonate with the American people. And I think we'll do well" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/25).

Ex-Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) was on "Tucker" to talk about the situation in Iraq: "What we have to do, before we go forward with a troop surge, is make the Iraqis step up. The Americans, particularly our soldiers on the ground, have made an extraordinary effort, and I think every American is proud of them. But what we haven't seen is that effort on the part of the Maliki government. To hope that we're going to succeed in creating a stable representative government in Iraq, we have to have the active leadership of that Iraqi government. And it hasn't been there. So what I would propose is that we condition any further increase in our efforts to help the Maliki government on prior action on their part so that we know that they're going to be part of a solution and not part of the problem" (MSNBC, 1/25).

GO WEST CANDIDATES

"Hardball" aired from Las Vegas and the show focused on the importance of the West in '08:

NBC's Lewis: "A number of factors are in play to focus more attention on the Western states. The Democratic Convention in Denver. That new Democratic caucus in Nevada. The possibility of an early presidential primary in California" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 1/25).

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, the NV primary: "It's way too early now to determine who is where in the Nevada caucuses. And that is well it should be. People are just getting cranked up. We have had of course a lot of people coming through Nevada already."

Reid, to MSNBC's Matthews: "Chris, I'm so glad you are in Nevada, because your temperament is so much better than it normally is. That is what Nevada does to people" ("Hardball," 1/25).

Ralston Report's Ralston: "I think that down here in Las Vegas, Hillary Clinton is going to run very, very well. John Kerry won. ... Now, the problem is, you can't just win in Las Vegas to win the general election. You have got to win in northern and rural Nevada. And yes, no presidential nominee has won here, except for Hillary's husband since 1964" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 1/25).

FORD'S FUTURE

CNN's Blitzer, to incoming DLC Chair Harold Ford: "This is a group of moderate Democrats that's propelled other Democrats to higher office. When he was an obscure governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton was chairman of the DLC, he became president. Does this mean you have higher political ambitions?"

Ford: "Well, right now my higher political ambitions -- thank you for the kinds words -- are really to try to help shape and fashion an agenda that Congressional and Senate Democrats can not only be proud of, but can draw from."

More: "I don't have any plans to run against Lamar Alexander."

On who he's endorsing: "I'm for Al Gore for that Oscar" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/25). [EMILY GOODIN]

This afternoon, Rep. Bob Brady announced he will run in Philadelphia’s May Democratic mayoral primary, joining a field that includes his congressional colleague Chaka Fattah.
A mayoral matchup between two sitting House members is a rare spectacle. Big-city congressmen routinely fan speculation about their mayoral ambitions but only occasionally follow through.

In recent years, Earl Blumenauer of Portland and Dennis Kucinich and Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Cleveland expressed interest in the mayor’s office but ultimately declined to run. Last November, Chicago’s Luis Gutierrez and Jesse Jackson Jr. also backed away from mayoral bids after serious consideration. Jackson’s decision came just two months after he said there was a 75 percent chance he would challenge incumbent Mayor Richard M. Daley in the February 2007 Democratic primary.

The City Hall tease isn’t just a case of congressional egos run amok. The complex challenge of governing a major metropolis genuinely appeals to those frustrated by the plodding pace of legislative life. And the politics of a mayoral bid are alluring: House members are already familiar to many city voters and the path to victory is unusually straightforward—in most cases, only one tough election, the Democratic primary, stands between them and executive office. Big-city mayoral elections also tend to fall conveniently in odd-years, allowing House members to run without giving up their safe seats.

The downside is that urban voters tend not to be impressed by congressional experience. For every Ed Koch or John Lindsay, both of whom made the leap from Congress to the New York City mayor’s office, there is a Herman Badillo, who failed twice as a congressman in NYC mayoral bids, or a John Conyers, a two-time mayoral loser in Detroit. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]

1. The campaign announced that JoDee Winterhoff, who managed Sen. Tom Harkin's '96 re-election, will serve as IA state director for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Two other prominent Iowans have also signed on: ex-IA A.G. Bonnie Campbell and Andy McGuire, a doctor who served as gubernatorial candidate Mike Blouin's running mate in 2006.

2. Reuters reports that actress Elizabeth Taylor wrote a $100,000 check to Hillary Clinton. Reuters doesn't tell you that the contribution limit is $4300 per person because, presumably, Reuters' editors didn't know enough to conclude that Ms. Taylor didn't know enough about federal campaign finance law. Whoops!

While the rest of Hollywood starts to choose sides in the 2008 U.S. presidential race, Taylor has already picked the New York Democratic senator as her favorite candidate and written her a $100,000 check for the campaign.

3. Shades of the Dean campaign in '03, the Clinton campaign sent out a press release bragging that 140K Americans have given their e-mail addresses to the campaign.

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Today's Hotline Spotlight:

Much like you, we can't take our eyes off the Scooter Libby trial. While folks predicted in '05 that it would offer little more than a mind-numbing document dump, Courtroom #16 is the scene of WH intrigue and back-stabbing drama at the highest, and most personal, levels. It's Cheney/Libby vs. Bush/Rove, a cloak-and-dagger sideshow to the tragedy unfolding in Iraq.

-- As MSNBC's Shuster notes, the trial reveals just how much of a personal fiefdom Cheney has carved out within the Bush admin. (Much to the chagrin, it seems, of Bush). But is Libby's defense just a legal ploy to shift jurors' focus away from perjury charges? Or can he actually prove a WH bid to protect Rove and pin him? One thing's clear: He can forget about any pres. pardon now.

-- All of which brings us to Cheney's heated chat 1/24 with CNN's Blitzer, who seemed flummoxed by the VP's refusal to discuss his gay daughter's pregnancy. Is the stress of the war problems and the internal soap opera re: Libby getting to the VP? For the first 5 years, the Bush WH had been a picture of unity to the distress of reporters who got used to Clinton WH leakers. This last year has been, dare we say, Clintonesque. Is this what we have to expect for the final two years?

Could ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) possibly have taken a lower profile during the SOTU? From 5,872 miles away in Herzliya, Israel Romney's sole SOTU press release "welcome[d] President Bush's proposed initiatives to make health insurance more available and affordable." Nothing on Iraq, immigration, No Child Left Behind, or energy.

Romney did release his remarks to the Seventh Annual Herzliya Conference titled "Governor Romney's Five Step Plan Of Action To Prevent A Nuclear Iran," but aside from brief praise for fomer Ambassador John Bolton none of his agenda items built off of Bush intitiatives in the region. Romney did mention Iraq in the same speech, but made no mention of the surge.

In contrast, John Edwards spoke to the same conference, but unlike Romney, Edwards also managed to get his Bush SOTU thoughts heard on Anderson Cooper 360, Larry King Live, Hannity and Colmes, and MSNBC.

When the focus is on Iraq, Romney isn't ready to give an extended opinion. Being out of the country is a nice excuse! [CONN CARROLL]

Sen. John Kerry made his exit yesterday, and because we're clairvoyant, we predicted it when we shot this episode. We see into other candidates' futures as well, so we'll answer the question: Who's the next to go?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Whit Ayres is Pres. of Ayres, McHenry & Associates, Inc., a nat'l public opinion and public affairs research firm located in Alexandria, VA, that provides research and strategic advice for corps., assocs., and GOP candidates for public office. Roll Call called the firm "one of the best in the nation." Before establishing the firm, Ayres served as Sr. Exec. Assistant for Budget and Policy to SC Gov. Carroll Campbell (R) and a member of the political science faculty at the Univ. of SC. He is Treas. of the American Assoc. of Political Consultants. And today, Ayers is our "Consultant Candid."

What one event in a candidate's past would pose the biggest problem in a campaign?

A candidate can overcome almost anything in the past as long as it's truly in the past and he or she does not try to cover it up. Americans have great tolerance for true redemption. A past problem that continues to fester is another matter entirely.

Negative campaigning -- good or bad?

It depends. Making a case why someone should not hold an office is as relevant as finding out why a potential employee should not be hired. But the ad has to be true and relevant. I have seen more than one campaign blown up by its own negative ad that backfired because it was untrue or over the top [KATHERINE LEHR].

Spending on political broadcast TV in '06 totaled $2.1B, which is over $1B more spent than in '04. And it will only continue to increase, says Evan Tracey, the CEO/founder of TNSMI/CMAG, a custom media research company for politics and public affairs advertising. Tracey was joined by a group of technological experts and consultants at the E-Voter Institute's "Research, Relationships, and Reality Check: Campaign 2008 Begins" 1/24 in Arlington, VA, to forecast the changes coming in '08.

In addition to highly competitive races and incumbent insecurity, Tracey points to the McCain-Feingold Act as the driving factor for the increase. Moreover, TNSMI/CMAG found that a majority of the money in '06 was spent at the tail end of the cycle, with 76% being spent in the last 60 days and 52% of it spent in the last 30 days. Although local cable TV raked in $300M this past cycle, broadcast TV is and will remain to be the top choice among campaigns. Tracey: "Politics hasn't figured out how to use old media yet." [KATHERINE LEHR].

From today's Hotline:

Over the past four cycles combined, a greater percentage of voters cast ballots for Dem House candidates in TX than in IA.

From today's Hotline:

According to a Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) official, Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL) "will be named in the immediate future" as Southeast Co-Chair of the Senator's exploratory committee.

Rumor: Sen, John Edwards's campaign is having trouble recruiting field staff in Iowa and New Hampshire, hasn't found a national communications director, doesn't have an ad maker, and is lagging behind his '03 pace in terms of fundraising.

Fact: In New Hampshire, advisers Nick Baldick and Caroline McCauly and others Edwards staffers may have more overall NH experience than any other team. The campaign has hired about 90 percent of the staff they'll need to run the primary there.

Word from IA is that Jennifer O'Malley, who was Edwards's IA field dir. in '03-'04, will serve as his state director this cycle. O'Malley is engaged to Patrick Dillon, who is slated to become Gov. Chet Culver's chief of staff. Dillon was Culver's mgr and worked on Edwards's '03-'04 field and press staffs in IA. Most recently, O'Malley was mgr for Rep. Jim Davis's FL Gov bid.

In South Carolina, John Moylan is running the show again. Edwards's communications team is in fighting shape. It'll be supervised by Jonathan Prince, with David Ginsberg and Jennifer Palmieri reprising their rolls as senior communications advisers. Andrea Purse shouldering the national spokeswoman duties, and a few other familiar faces about to join the staff. Edwards does indeed have a chief ad-maker: Marius Penczner, who will supervise a team of several different consultants. (Edwards's '03 ad-maker, David Axelrod, is now a senior strategist for Sen. Barack Obama.) Finally, money. We can't say for sure, because nobody who knows will tell us, but aside from a little bit of cut-in from Sen. Joe Biden's courtship of the trial bar, the signals emanating from Edwards's universe suggest he's on track to beat expectations in the first quarter.

There's kind of a neat little way to keep track of Newt Gingrich on his website. Check it out. You'll learn, that for example, he's speaking to the American College of Dermatology convention on 2/4. Then, on 2/7 to the World Money Show in Orlando. The next day, he's speaking to an Ameritrade conference in Los Angeles. In May, Gingrich gets to speak to the Texas Bankers Association. [MARC AMBINDER]

Squibs:

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Hunter Announcing For President Today From SC

AZ Political News-- Hollywood, D.C. Media Firms Join McCain Election Team

Capitol Fax -- Revelations Appear To Back Up Corruption ...

Georgia Political Digest-- Lobbying Profession Committed To Good Government

Iowa Politics-- Obama Names 2 Iowa Staffers

JohnCombest.com -- AP: Bush Visit To KC Will Promote Health Care Plan

NhNewslinks.com -- Critics Mock Rep.'s Marriage Law Proposal

Quorum Report -- Bush Focuses On The Home Front

Sayfie's Review -- Sentinel: Senators Voice Iraq Doubts

WisPolitics.com-- Thompson Campaign Names Schmitz National Political Director

If you're a Democrat, um, yes, you do.

You're in luck. Here's the golden key: spend a day working alongside an SEIU member.

That's what Andy Stern, the president of the country's largest labor union, will do over the next several days. Appropriately, he'll be in Iowa City, IA this weekend and in Concord, NH early next week.

Says Stern, in a statement: "If presidential candidates understand the struggles workers face each day, they will be better able to offer the solutions this country needs."

Reports that SEIU was preparing to endorse a presidential candidate early (or even two of them) aren't correct. And it's now clear that Stern won't recommend that his members endorse a candidate who refuses to spend a day in their shoes.

Who's first? [MARC AMBINDER]

Democrats not only appear confident about their prospects of holding onto power in '08, but they're preparing to seek re-election on platforms that openly oppose the Republican president.

In interviews with several of those freshman House Democrats following Bush's State of the Union address this week, an interesting trend emerged: Democrats not only appear confident about their prospects of holding onto power in '08, but despite (or perhaps because of) their perceived vulnerabilities, they're preparing to seek re-election on platforms that openly oppose the Republican president and the agenda he unveiled Tuesday night.

In often hostile terms, freshman Democrats in GOP-friendly districts said their increasingly partisan tone reflects a dramatic shift they've noticed back home regarding constituents' willingness to question and criticize the president they elected. [JOHN MERCURIO]

Continue reading John Mercurio's Politiscope

As we've reported before, Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI) has endorsed Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA). That's not preventing him from using his ties to Detroit's auto industry to lay down a gauntlet for the rest of the '08ers: raise CAFE standards at your political peril!

On the day Ford reported its biggest loss in history, Knollenberg writes in an op-ed that "....Washington must not inflict permanent damage on this crucial industry by raising fuel economy standards. We can reduce our dependence on foreign oil without destroying one of the most significant providers of jobs and wealth the country has ever known. Now is not the time to pull the rug out from underneath The Big Three's and Michigan's collective feet."

Says a Knollenberg aide: "People wanting our 17 electoral votes and the 225 electoral votes of other states with Detroit truck plants need to understand the consequences of bad energy policy."

We hear..

That Dan Ronayne will return to the RNC as dep. comm. dir. and nat'l press secretary. Ronayne will report to Lisa Miller, the RNC's new communications director. An offiical announcement is expected next week. Ronayne spent last cycle with the NRSC. He's also been on staff at the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign and at the RNC.

Here are a few more highlights from CNN's Blitzer's interview with VP Cheney:

On Osama bin Laden: "Obviously, he's well hidden. We've been looking for him for some time. I think the fact is, he's gone totally to ground. He doesn't communicate, except perhaps by courier, he's not up on the air, he's not putting out videos, the way he did oftentimes in the past."

Blitzer: "His number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is." More: "I mean, he's on television almost as much as I am."

Cheney: "Well, I don't know if anybody's on as much as you are, Wolf, but -- no, he's more of a public figure than Osama is."

More Cheney: "We have not gotten Osama bin Laden, obviously, because he's very careful. I mean, he doesn't communicate, he's not in direct contact on a regular basis. But we've taken out several times that whole layer of leadership underneath Osama bid Laden and Zawahiri. One of the most dangerous jobs in the world is to be number three in the al Qaeda organization. There's a lot of them dead or in custody" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/24).

Blitzer, asked if he was surprised by Cheney's reax to his Mary Cheney question: "I was surprised, because we have discussed this issue in the past. And Mary Cheney herself has written a book about her experiences, openly opposing a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. I have discussed it with her when she was on my program. I have discussed it with Lynne Cheney when she's been on my program" ("AC 360," 1/24).

THANKS, BUT NO THANKS

But most of the talk last night focused on the action in the Senate Foreign Relations Cmte:

FNC's Garrett: "With this vote, the Democratically-led Senate Foreign Relations Committee rejected President Bush's new Iraq strategy, mere hours after he urged Congress and the nation to give it a chance to succeed" ("Special Report," 1/24).

CNN's Roberts: "Not in the national interest was how the Senate Foreign Relations Committee described the president's plan to put more troops in Iraq, approving a measure to give the idea a rhetorical thumbs down" ("AC 360," 1/24).

PBS' Ifill: VP Cheney "today at CNN, he said that part of what's going on here is that people do not have the stomach to complete this mission. Senator Hagel, your response to that?"

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE): "Oh, I'm so sorry the vice president so underestimates the people of this country. He has so little faith in this country to say something like that. That's an astounding statement from the vice president of the United States. You're telling me -- or maybe more directly, maybe the vice president should tell the families of those who have lost their lives, over 3,000, and over 23,000 wounded, some very seriously for life, that they don't have the stomach? Come on, let's get real here" ("NewsHour," PBS, 1/24).

Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA): "What I've been saying pretty consistently through this is that we need to take some leadership here. We've not seen leadership from the administration. The Congress needs to stand up. And this is a nonbinding resolution. But at the same time, I think it's for the first time taking a head count of how the people in the Congress actually feel about this" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 1/24). [EMILY GOODIN]

HHS Sec/ex-UT Gov. Mike Leavitt politely declined to answer questions directly today about fellow Mormon Mitt Romney's WH '08 bid. Leavitt said Romney was sure to be a "viable" candidate and he believes the Mormon factor is a "curiosity to people" that won't affect his candidacy in a negative way.

He also mentioned how he didn't quite understand how Romney's health care insurance plan in MA could work, saying "I'm not 100 percent sure how they did that" and adding he wasn't sure the plan was "fully tested yet."

Leavitt met with reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast to answer specific questions about POTUS' Health Care Proposal from last night's SOTU. Leavitt worked closely with Romney when the latter was heading up the Salt Lake Olympics in '02 [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Here's the back-n-forth between Wolf Blitzer and VP Cheney re: Scooter Libby and the allegation about an effort to "protect" Karl Rove:

BLITZER: The whole notion of your long-time aide, Lewis Scooter Libby -- he's in the papers, his lawyer now, suggesting on the opening day of the trial that he was basically set up by people in the White House to protect Karl Rove, the president's political aide. What do you make of that?

CHENEY: Now, Wolf, you knew, when we set up the interview, you can ask all the questions you want. I'm going to be a witness in that trial within a matter of weeks. I'm not going to discuss it. I haven't discussed it with anybody in the press yet, and I'm not going to discuss it with you today.

BLITZER: You -- but you --

CHENEY: Wolf, you got my answer.

BLITZER: Have you contributed to his legal defense, though?

CHENEY: I'm a strong friend and supporter of Scooter's. I have not contributed to his legal defense fund. I think he is an extraordinarily talented and capable individual.

On CNN:

BLITZER: You know, we’re out of time, but a couple of issues I want to raise with you: your daughter, Mary. She's pregnant. All of us are happy she’s going to have a baby. You’re going to have another grandchild. Some of the -- some critics are suggesting -- for example, a statement from someone representing Focus on the Family, "Mary Cheney's pregnancy raises the question of what's best for children. Just because it's possible to conceive a child outside of the relationship of a married mother and father doesn't mean that it's best for the child." Do you want to respond to that? 4

CHENEY: No

BLITZER: She's, obviously, a good daughter --

CHENEY: I'm delighted I'm about to have a sixth grandchild, Wolf.

And obviously I think the world of both my daughters and all of my grandchildren. And I think, frankly, you're out of line with that question.

BLITZER: I think all of us appreciate --

CHENEY: I think you're out of line.

BLITZER: We like your daughters. Believe me, I'm very sympathetic to Liz and to Mary. I like them both. That was a question that’s come up, and it’s a responsible, fair question.

CHENEY: I just fundamentally disagree with you.

BLITZER: I want to congratulate you on having another grandchild.

Let's wind up with the soft stuff (ph)-- Nancy Pelosi. What was it like sitting with her last night as opposed to Dennis Hastert?

Speaking on the Senate floor this afternoon, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) closed a lengthy address that called for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq by next year by announcing his "conclusion" not to run for president in '08. Kerry: "I've concluded this is not the time for me to mount a presidential campaign, but to put my energy into working with the majority of the Senate" to "change the policy in Iraq that threatens all that i have fought for since I came home from Vietnam."

Following his address, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) called Kerry a "true hero" while Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) proclaimed "I love you John Kerry" and thanked him for his service.

Pressure has been mounting on John Kerry in recent weeks to make clear whether or not he would pursue another Senate run, considering several Massachusetts congressman in the Bay State are salivating for the seat. We hear that Kerry asked Jackson Dunn, his chief fundraiser, to put together two separate fundraising plans: one for if he ran for president, and one if he decided to seek re-election to the Senate.

One sign that Kerry’s mind was made up a while ago: until today, he’s been largely MIA from the debate about the surge. Kerry’s exit will boost Sen. Joe Biden's nascent fundraising effort, because the two are likely to compete for the same donors with their thick backgrounds in foreign relations in the Senate. Boston donors are expected to play a big part of that constituency, and many old Kerry hands (think Ron Rosenblith and John Martilla) are also old Biden hands.

So will Kerry face a challenge in ’08? Massachusetts just installed its first Democratic governor in 16 years. But the state GOP is fairly weak and riven by conflict.

Massachusetts GOP Executive Director Brian Dodge explained in a phone interview last week that the party is settling in under its new chairman, Peter Torkildsen, and hasn't really begun its recruiting efforts yet. Asked whether rumors were true that Ex WH CoS Andy Card was planning to mount a serious challenge to Kerry, Dodge said no. He added that while the state party would be thrilled to see Card return to the state for such a run, he didn't think the scenario was a likely one. But two Republicans -- US Attorney Michael Sullivan, Cape & Islands District Attorney Michael O'Keefe -- appear to be early possibilities. [ERIN MCPIKE]

Rep. Mary Bono (R-CA) becomes the first member of Congress outside New York State to formally endorse ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani.

The top candidates on each side of the aisle are all but in the race. But more candidates have yet to announce. How does a soon-to-be second tier standout make a splash in the WH race? Well, you could announce on Hotline TV.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Rumor 1. Sen. John McCain nodded off during last night's State of the Union address. Fact: Not really. Like virtually half the chamber, he was reading a paper copy of the speech. We know because we saw glimpses of the white paper when McCain turned the pages.

Rumor: At the last moment, Ex-MA Gov Mitt Romney's staff tried twice to obtain a coveted speaking slot at the March for Life, and they were bluntly turned down. Fact: Romney was in Israel, a trip for which planning began several months ago. At the March's gala dinner this weekend, Barbara Comstock and Gary Marx, two Romney advisers, held court. It's possible that, at some point in the fall, Romney's aides tried to broker an invitation -- we couldn't reach the March for Life folks -- but it's unlikely they scrambled for an invite. Context: There were plenty of anti-Romney fliers at the March, and several of March's Catholic board members are said to be weary of Romney's recent conversion on life issues.

Rumor: Ralph Reed's about to join Romney as a senior adviser. Fact: Not true, according to Romney aides. [MARC AMBINDER]

Squibs:

Terry Sullivan will manage Romney's South Carolina campaign, The State reports today. The Hotline's question: Two thirds of the Tompkins (as in Warren)-Sullivan-Thompson Carrol Campbell strategic troika are with Romney. Heath Thompson is unaffiliated right now (and working in Texas.)

Ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani will be in South Carolina on 2/3 to speak to the SC GOP's state convention. And Hillary Clinton makes her first visit to New Hampshire that weekend.

Speaking of Giuliani: The Politico's Ben Smith (who, again, looks better in person than his caricature would suggest), along with the P-Co's J. Martin, report that ex-SC School superintendent candidate Karen Floyd will help Giuliani in the state. The duo also report that Rudy's team tried -- and failed -- to recruit RNC chairman Ken Mehlman.

Sen. John Kerry's decision frees up some talented Democratic operatives and fundraisers for 2008.

They include:

Michael Whouley, the party's pre-eminent field organizer. Some aides to Sen. Hillary Clinton hope that Whouley plays a role in her Iowa field effort, but Whouley is said to want to sit the primary out.

Nick Clemons, currently the exec. dir of the New Hampshire Dem Party, and formerly the NH field director for Kerry.

Mike Gehrke, currently the exec. dir of the Senate Majority Project. He's an oppo research whiz.

John Giesser, who helped run the DNC for Kerry during the general election campaign.

Ed Reilly, Kerry's senior adviser and pollster.

Jenny Backus, a Kerry adviser who's helping NBC organize the SC debates.

Jay Dunn, Kerry's chief fundraiser. He'll help Kerry set up an '08 campaign. It's unclear whether he'll play in a presidential campaign, but he's a protege of Clinton ally Terry McAuliffe.

Also becoming free agents: some of the party's top donors, including Wade Randlett and Mark Gorenberg in California and Boston Capital CEO John Manning. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

Among the things attendees at this morning's National Journal /NBC post-SOTU breakfast learned was that it is no longer politically correct in the House Dem caucus to refer to the newly elected members from '06 as "Freshmen." How did we learn this? House Maj. Whip Jim Clyburn referred to the "freshmen" and then corrected himself and then went on to admit the new policy. Freshman, er newly elected Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA) told the crowd that he "suspected" it had something to do with the word "new" being more appealing to the public than "freshman," which can be seen by some as derogatory. So there ya go!

Even though it's only January in an off-year and President Bush's State of the Union address is just hours old, the GOP's nervousness and depression is palpable. The gloom is somewhat widespread right now, and if Republicans aren't careful, 2008 could turn into a disastrous self-fulfilling prophesy for them.

Tuesday night's speech was the start of a critical time for the Republican Party, because if Bush can't reverse his political death spiral, next year is going to make last year seem like a fond memory.

Some Republicans would prefer that Bush just go away -- that somehow if he is dismissed as a lame duck, voters won't hold other members of the GOP accountable for his problems.

But that's just not the case. The rebound of the GOP brand has to start with the White House, specifically Bush, if the party has any hopes of winning something in 2008. Nevertheless, all sides are denying this fix at the moment.

One camp truly believes Bush will not be a factor. Another understands that the "Bush brand" is synonymous with the GOP brand but has no faith that the White House does.

Still another group believes the party's problems rest solely with Iraq and therefore are not fixable in the political realm. Finally, there's the White House, which appears to see that there's a problem but can't seem to stumble onto a solution.

At a minimum, selecting Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., as Republican National Committee chairman indicates that the White House knows the party needs better spokesmen. While Martinez may seem like an odd choice politically (read: immigration), he puts a unique face from a crucial state in charge of shepherding the Republican Party brand. But at best, Martinez is a Band-Aid. He does nothing for Republicans on what's really dragging them down: Iraq. [CHUCK TODD]

Continue Reading On The Trail.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Where's The Democratic Bandwagon?

AZ Political News-- State Democratic Party Keeping Its Chairman

Capitol Fax -- SS Numbers Distributed Toward Hacks

Georgia Political Digest-- Bush Speech Gets Mixed Reaction From Georgia Lawmakers

Iowa Politics-- IowaPolitics.com: Clinton To Visit Des Moines Saturday

JohnCombest.com -- P-D Political Fix: Delegation Reactions To State Of The Union

NhNewslinks.com -- Critics Mock Rep.'s Marriage Law Proposal

Quorum Report -- Bush Focuses On The Home Front

Sayfie's Review -- Daily News: Democrats, Republicans Differ On Bush's War Policy

WisPolitics.com-- DC Wrap: Delegation Reacts To Bush Speech

As Mark Mellman would say, there are three ways to interpret a memo distributed to reporters this a.m. from Sen. Barack Obama's staff about the libelous claim that he attended a madrassa as a young man.

1. The story still has legs, and Obama's staff is concerned that the madrassa rumor will never be fully put to bed unless it's tucked under the covers by Obama himself. Obama, we're told, was asked about the madrassa story at least six times yesterday. One reporter wasn't aware that CNN had proven the rumor false.

2. They're angling for a hit off the Obama versus Fox News match-up. The memo takes Steve Doocy and John Gibson to task for repeating the charges and documents how CNN (Fox competitor!) thoroughly debunked the story. Bashing Fox -- and in this case, Fox warrants a bit of bashing -- is like throwing a log in a heated fire. Compare this to Sen. John McCain's embrace of MoveOn.org's ads against him. The more liberals attack McCain, the more conservative he seems.

3. Obama will not be swiftboated. Period.

Explanations 1 and 3 are more convincing to us than explanation 2, but the side effects will be fun to watch.

From the memo:

To be clear, Senator Obama has never been a Muslim, was not raised a Muslim, and is a committed Christian who attends the United Church of Christ in Chicago. Furthermore, the Indonesian school Obama attended in Jakarta is a public school that is not and never has been a Madrassa. These malicious, irresponsible charges are precisely the kind of politics the American people have grown tired of, and that Senator Obama is trying to change by focusing on bringing people together to solve our common problems.

Attached to the memo was a letter signed by prominent progressive clerics to congregations across the country. "We are writing to deplore this despicable tactic and set the record straight. We have had enough of the slash and burn politics calculated to divide us as children of God," the letter states. It's signed by the presidents of the United Church of Christ, the Interfaith Alliance, the exec. dir of the Muslim Public Affairs council, and several prominent liberal rabbis.

The full memo can be read after the jump.

Today's House Race Hotline Spotlight:

Which medium-sized state did Dems hold four GOP members of the delegation under 55% without much support from the DCCC?

-- It's Michigan, the one untapped resource left for the Dems in their bid to expand their Congressional majority.

-- Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI 07) didn't even win a majority of the vote despite running against an underfunded opponent. And speculation abounds that ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) could run as a Dem against him in '08.

-- Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI 09) didn't fare much better against liberal talk show host Nancy Skinner (D). He won only 51% of the vote - the first time he's won by a single-digit margin.

-- And Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI 11), while in better shape, only has $38K left in his campaign account. He'll have to fill the coffers before the '08 cycle to inoculate himself from a tough challenge.

-- Some of the results were due to the sour environment nationwide for the GOP. But the warning signs are there. If the GOP isn't careful, could MI be the '08 version of PA? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) will pick up the endorsement today of Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), the ranking member of the House intelligence committee and its former chairman. Hoekstra will be Romney's campaign adviser on intelligence and will serve as one of his principal tutors on foreign affairs.

Hoekstra's endorsement may boost Romney's credibility among conservatives who worry that he lacks national security experience.

Hoekstra was chairman of the House Intelligence Cmte from '04 until two weeks ago. He is an independent -- though unabashedly conservative -- operator. A few weeks ago, he questioned Pres. Bush's selection of ret. Adm. Michael McConnell to be the Director of National Intelligence, wondering why the White House bypassed qualified civilian intelligence officials. In '05, amid a debate about pre-war intelligence, Hoekstra trumpeted a DIA report noting that hundreds of older (pre-1991) shells containing mustard gas and sarin were found throughout Iraq. Other intelligence officials, the DoD and the White House did not believe the report vindicated pre-war assessments about Iraq's attempts to procure chemical weapons. Hoekstra is a strong advocate for civilian oversight of the intelligence community and has been a vocal supporter of the president's formerly secret wire-tapping policies. He’s generally a hard-liner on Iran.

The unveiling of Hoekstra's endorsement comes one day after Romney, in Israel, urged the UN to impose strict economic sanctions against Iran and indict the president of Iran on charges of genocide.

In the months after 9/11, Romney, then the CEO of the Salt Lake City Olympic Committee, was regularly briefed by intelligence officials on threats to the Olympic games. As Governor, Romney headed an intelligence task force for the National Governors Association, and ex-Homeland Security Sec. Tom Ridge appointed him to a national homeland security advisory committee.

In recent months, Romney's self-directed study of foreign policy and national security has included briefings from current senior intelligence officials and former CIA directors like James Woosley.

Romney's campaign plans to roll out several more House campaign endorsements over the next several weeks. With Hoekstra, Romney has the support of nine members of Congress, including ex-House Speaker Dennis Hastert, Ways and Means ranking member Jim McCrery (R-LA), and Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL). [MARC AMBINDER]

Here are some quick reaxs to Pres. Bush's SOTU. More to come in today's Hotline:

FNC's Cameron: "A surprising shortage of reactions from a lot of these presidential candidates in the early stages after the speech, normally we're peppered with news releases" (1/23).

Rudy Giuliani: "It did what the president had to do, which was to get us kind of beyond Iraq, meaning there are a lot of other things we have to concentrate on. There are a lot of things that are very important to us, including Iraq, and the president spoke mostly about those things."

On WH '08: "I'm afraid that 2012 election may start before this one is over. These things are really happening very quickly. You just have to adjust to it, and deal with it. And I'll make a decision, you know, as quickly as I can about whether it is the right thing to do. But we're exploring it, we're putting together people, we're getting a great deal of support."

On HRC: "She has the kind of lead on the Democratic side that really no one on the Republican side has. I mean, we're sort of pretty close together, particularly John McCain and I" (FNC, 1/23).

Hillary Clinton: "I'm a realist. And I get up every today and try to figure out what we are going to get done today to move the ball forward. So, I'm ready to, you know, work with anybody. I'm not interested in scoring partisan or ideological points on some imaginary board in the sky. Let's try to get something done" (MSNBC, 1/23).

Barack Obama: "The writing reflected the fact that there's a lot of confusion -- not just in the country, but I think in the White House, as well -- about how to proceed, particularly on the foreign policy front. You know, frankly, the strongest responses that the president received were right at the end, when he was talking about the four wonderful stories of the individuals that were in the galleries. That's normally something that you put up front in a speech. That's not how you would end. And I think that indicates that, you know, the overall approach on foreign policy is not one that I think really sold tonight" (MSNBC, 1/23).

Obama, on the stories about his schooling in Indonesia: "You know, when I ran for the United States Senate, right after I won the primary, there were some political operatives that put up a web site that superimposed my face over bin Laden. And you know, full with the beard and the turban. We ended up winning that race 70 percent to 30 percent. The American people are smarter than that. ... And so if I go ahead with the presidential race, what they're going to be listening for is a message of change, a message of leadership. If they think I've got a vision for the country that can help them secure a future for themselves and their children, then I think I'll do fine" (CNN, 1/23).

John Edwards: "I was really disappointed not to hear him talk about what I would describe as the struggles of working men and women in this country, and particularly in New Orleans, which he made a big deal about a year ago and said, you know, he would stay with it until problems in New Orleans were solved. Well, he hasn't stayed with it and the problems aren't solved" (MSNBC, 1/23).

More Edwards: "He talked about some really important issues, not just Iraq, but energy and health care. He made some proposals, which I was happy to hear. Those proposals where mostly small, baby steps instead of the big transformation to bold things that I think are necessary to deal with those issues" (FNC, 1/23).

Edwards, on Iraq: "What's missing here is the president is basically and fundamentally wrong. He seems to think that somehow if we put more troops behind what has been failing time and time again, that it will make it work. And I just think he's wrong" (CNN, 1/23).

AND THE PUNDITS SAY ...

NBC's Williams: "There were some issues that didn't even get the courtesy applause, the polite, the civilian corps idea for the U.S. military got no reaction from the Joint Chiefs in the front row. At that point, it was, slide down the ice, get to the tributes in the gallery, which were the winning high point. If you can't win with a guy who throws himself under a New York subway train, it's time for a new speechwriter" (MSNBC, 1/23).

New York Times' Brooks: "You saw people can have their really serious disagreements about Iraq, but put that to one side and at least applaud, at least have the spirit of good atmosphere in the room, despite all that. And that leaves the opening, at least, for the possibility that on some of these issues" (PBS, 1/23).

Mark Shields: "I thought it was civil. I thought it was polite. I thought there was a polite feeling in the room, that the fellow's down. I disagree with him, but there's no point in kicking him" (PBS, 1/23).

CNN's Crowley: "The main nugget of this speech, it seems to me, was: Our country is pursuing a new strategy in Iraq, and I ask you to give it a chance to work. Whatever you voted for, you did not vote for failure. That's the message the president needed to get out tonight" (1/23).

FNC's Hume: "Jim Webb, himself a writer of some repute, and a man with a rich and deep voice, seeming quite comfortable with the text that he had written" (1/23).

NBC's Brokaw, on Webb: "A year ago, we were both in Vietnam, retracing his days there for a book that I'll be writing" (MSNBC, 1/23).

CNN's Blitzer, on Webb: "As expected, a tough, no-nonsense speech" (1/23). [EMILY GOODIN]

Conservative pioneer Richard Viguerie has a burr in his saddle after watching the president's speech. Remember, though, that. Mr. Viguerie is on the record as stating that President Reagan wasn't sufficiently conservative. Viguerie is the press's to-go guy when there's a need to quote a conservative who thinks some other conservative isn't conservative enough.

"The underlying message in this State of the Union Address was directed toward the Democrats: In effect, we can work together--let's make a deal. The underlying message directed toward the conservatives was: You have no place else to go.

More of Viguerie's response after the break.

The Hotline's Editor In Chief was a Hardblogger tonight, along with a gaggle of other political heavyweights. Check out his initial reactions to the speech here.

ABC News' Karen Travers, who knows Georgetown basketball, has a rather fascinating fact check.

First, Travers says that Dikembe Mutombo came to Georgetown University to study languages – he enrolled in the School of Languages and Linguistics according to Hoyabasketball.com, a site run by another former Hoya sports editor, John Regan. (http://www.hoyabasketball.com/features/top100/d_mutombo.htm)

Second, the arrival of a 7-2 freshman on campus may not have been a surprise to Hoya Head Coach John Thompson. Mutombo played on the Zairean junior national team in 1986 and caught the attention of U.S. development officer Herman Henning, who sent a tape of Mutombo to Georgetown, according to Regan's site.

Mutombo did not play on the Hoyas basketball team his freshman year. Despite his fluency in nine languages, he could not qualify for the NCAA because of its SAT requirement (English was not one of Mutombo’s strongest languages)

Mutombo joined the basketball during his second year at Georgetown.

See if you can find them...

“The President offered some serious proposals tonight on two issues – energy and health care – that we all agree must be addressed. I’m glad he did and I think it’s important to respond in a constructive way. But the last election proved that politics-by-slogan and poll-tested sound bites aren’t going to cut it with the American people anymore, and that’s why the real test of leadership is not what the President said to Congress tonight, but how he works with Congress to find real solutions to the problems we face.

“The good news is that in the halls of Congress and across the nation, there is widespread support from both Democrats and Republicans on how to meet the major challenges facing America.

“Most Americans believe that escalation will not bring the war in Iraq to a responsible end, and that’s why I’ve proposed not just a troop cap, but a phased redeployment that will start bringing our troops home. Most Americans believe that energy independence will come from using more biofuels like ethanol and making cars that actually use less oil, which is why I proposed a bipartisan plan that would raise fuel economy standards for the first time in decades. Most Americans believe that the biggest domestic challenge facing the country is the high cost of health care, and that’s why incremental plans that do nothing to bring down costs or guarantee coverage are simply no longer sufficient.

“The American people have been waiting for leadership commensurate to the challenges we face, and they’ll be watching to see if bold rhetoric is followed by bold action in the months to come.”

Sen. John Kerry, in his response, says that he'll introduce legislation to require Pres. Bush to set a date by which U.S. troops should withdraw from Iraq.

“The President missed a golden opportunity tonight to admit that he made a mistake in Iraq and to share with the American people a plan for gradually removing our troops and allowing the Iraqis to solve the political crisis in Iraq. Instead, he glossed over the disastrous war and its multi-billion-dollar price tag and implied again that our presence in Iraq is somehow improving the situation in that chaotic and turbulent country. The Congress must stand up against Bush’s plan to escalate the war with a new surge of troops and I will be introducing legislation shortly to demand that the Administration set a date for withdrawing troops from Iraq. The President’s address came up short in other areas as well – like his idea to tax worker health benefits and his failure to seriously address the challenge of global climate change. Our economy is headed in the wrong way; wages are barely keeping up with inflation and family income is on the way down,” Kerry said.

How easy for the network cut-aways:

Sen. Hillary Clinton is seated directly behind Sen. Barack Obama!

Strategic Vision asked 600 Iowa Republican caucus-goers if they believed Pres. Bush was a conservative in the mold of Ronald Reagan.

11% said yes; 77% said no; and 12% were undecided.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney uses tonight's SOTU to tout his own state's universal health insurance plan.

"We are blessed to live in a country with the best medical system in the world. However, for too many, private health insurance is often out of reach. I welcome President Bush's proposed initiatives to make health insurance more available and affordable. He recognizes the answer is not more government but more innovation, harnessing the power of free market reforms.

"I am especially encouraged by the President's initiative to help states find new solutions for individuals to buy health insurance. I believe the states are our best laboratories to find the best policy innovations to our health insurance crisis. As Governor, my state found a way to get all of our citizens covered without a tax increase and without a big government takeover."

(Some facts about RomneyCare were appended to Romney's statement).

How many pundits reference LBJ? (Remember how LBJ proposed large domestic initiatives amid the Vietnam disaster?)

Who's the first pundit to mention Jim Webb in connection with Veepstakes?

Which network will cut away the most to HRC versus Obama versus McCain?

Which pundit will remark on what Nancy Pelosi wears?

Will Rep. Boehner glow bright-orange under the lights?

Which network does the best fact check?

Which network does the most unfair fact check?

On the speech

How many times will Democrats applaud while Republicans stay silent? (CAFE standards?)

Will the State of the Union be "strong?" "Incredibly strong? "Steely?" "Solid?" "Eh?" "So-So?"

Which Democrats does Bush hug and/or kiss?

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

There are 5 people who need Pres. Bush to turn around Iraq, and his presidency, tonight: The 3 GOP frontrunners who back his Iraq plan (McCain, Romney and Giuliani), the NRSC's Ensign and the NRCC's Cole.

-- The GOP's fate in '08 depends on them. Tonight, their future will be influenced by an unpopular GOP president whose problems, while arguably self-inflicted, are becoming their own. Like it or not, Bush remains the party's face and its leader.

-- The '08 elections are, of course, more than 21 months away. But as Dems learned painfully in '96 when they fell short of regaining Congress, off-year winters set the course for election-year prospects in terms of recruitment, fundraising and message development. If GOPers head into this summer with Bush stuck below 40%, their fears of another Dem rout will take hold.

-- Can Bush, starting tonight, rebound? Poll after poll suggests that voters ain't holding their breath. How hard will '08 GOPers have to work to tackle buyer's remorse?

(Courtesy of Jon Ralston in NV):

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIRST LADY DAWN GIBBONS TO WEAR AN ARMANI DESIGN TO INAUGURAL BALLS

For Immediate Release: January 23, 2007] http://firstlady.state.nv.us/PressReleases/2007-01-23FirstLadyInauguralGown.doc> (Word) For more information, contact: Ande Engleman @ 775-XXX-XXXX

FIRST LADY DAWN GIBBONS TO WEAR AN ARMANI DESIGN TO INAUGURAL BALLS

Carson City, NV-First Lady Dawn Gibbons announced today that she will be wearing a Bordeaux velvet gown, designed by Giorgio Armani to the Inaugural Balls in Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada.

The gown is strapless and has organza detail around the bust line with a matching velvet jacket highlighted in white silk satin and pleated collar.

The First Lady purchased the gown at the Giorgio Armani-Bellagio boutique in Las Vegas. Following tradition, the gown will be donated to the Nevada State Museum for the First Ladies' Collection.

Mrs. Gibbons will also be wearing a white gold and diamond necklace and earrings on loan from the Chopard Boutique at the Forum Shops at Caesars in Las Vegas. They're from the "Happy Spirit" collection.

###

Sen. Hillary Clinton may have back-to-back-to-back-to-back network television appearances, and Sen. Barack Obama has his one-on-one with Charlie Gibson on ABC, but Ex-Sen. John Edwards wants to bypasses the masses with a message to the gatekeepers.

He's paying for a full-page ad in Roll Call tomorrow that includes some of the 80,000 names on an anti-surge petition he has circulated through his website.

His tag line: "Members of Congress: You have the power to block this escalation. Use it. To join us in speaking out against the escalation, visit JohnEdwards.com."

Most of the nets have booked their guests for both pre and post SOTU coverage. Here are some listings:

* ABC: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Also, "GMA" noted this a.m. that Obama will be the guest 1/24.
* CNN: "Situation Room" has Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), DNC Chair Howard Dean, Chris Dodd, and Senate Maj. Leader Mitch McConnell. "LKL" has Reps. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), Chris Shays (R-CT), and Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) and ex-DNC Chair Terry McAullife. "AC 360" has John Edwards.
* FNC: Rudy Giuliani and McConnell.
* MSNBC: Clinton and Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL).
* NBC: Clinton and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

Wondering what impact Pres. Bush's State of the Union will have nationwide? Why some White House '08 hopefuls choose one venu over another? Or whether anyone can catch fire thanks to the netroots?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Lefty bloggers are raising questions about the strategy behind Hillary Clinton's blog banner ad by – she’s on conservative websites like Townhall, Power Line and Captain’s Quarters. MyDD's Matt Stoller wonders: "Why do people like HRC, no matter how often it becomes clear that wingnuts hate us, seek approval from wingnuts?"

After watching HRC's 1/22 chat, Taylor Marsh notes "sole proprietor blogs are small businesses" and goes on to criticize Team Hillary's ad buy for choosing only "the heaviest hitters" while ignoring "small business blogs." Marsh says the move contradicts HRC's rhetoric "which will become policy if elected" and that the issue was important "because I depend on my readers to help me pay the bills." More Marsh: "John Edwards didn't play it like Clinton when he announced. He advertised on small business, single proprietor blogs like mine as well. He gets "need" to his core."

Contacted about the buy, Clinton nat'l spokesman Phil Singer tells Hotline: "We're on some conservative sites because we're not ceding any territory. We take nothing for granted." [CONN CARROLL]

Continue reading today's Blogometer

In order, here are the fact sheets sent out by the White House in advance of the State of the Union address.

From the titles alone, doesn't this sound like a Democratic Party policy concordance?

No, we don't mean to reify the stereotype that health care et. al are only Dem issues. We just mean that Democrats would use the most of the same phrases to describe and promote their policies.

ENERGY: Twenty In Ten: Strengthening America's Energy Security

HEALTH CARE: Affordable, Accessible, And Flexible Health Coverage

NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND: Building On Results: A Blueprint For Strengthening NCLB

IMMIGRATION: President Bush's Plan For Comprehensive Immigration Reform

HIV/AIDS: Leading The Worldwide Fight Against HIV/AIDS

MALARIA: The President's Malaria Initiative Is Saving Lives

STRENGTHENING OUR MILITARY: Strengthening Our Military

SPENDING REFORMS: Reforms To Spend Tax Dollars Wisely

The RNC has released a briefing on Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA). The headline reads, "Webb's Sight: More Of The Same." Beneath that: "Dems Pick New Senator With Same Old Ideas To Respond To State Of The Union."

The briefing is a series of quotes compiled from media clips either criticizing Webb for "looking to increase taxes" or for stepping "in lockstep with defeatocrats on Iraq." Tucked toward the end of the briefing is a quick list of anti-Webb quotes under a section titled, "Others Agree Webb Is Not The Type Of Leader Washington Needs." Yet perhaps the most striking section is one addressing Webb's relations with President Bush. The section's title: "Webb Had Encounter With President Bush That Made Him So Angry He Was 'Tempted To Slug' The President."

From today's Hotline:

You may think you know the plotlines to the nominees for Best Picture, unveiled today, but think again.

-- "Babel": an epic adventure of a president trying to use a foreign language to sell an unpopular war.

-- "The Departed": A buddy picture which follows the post-Congressional career paths of two defeated members of Congress.

-- "Letters from Iowa Jima": David Yepsen's fond recollections of IA caucus campaigns past.

-- "Little Miss Sunshine": A docu-drama following the candidacy of a once-unpopular first lady trying to remake her image.

-- "The Queen": A bio-pic chronicling the rise (and fall?) of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

From today's Hotline:

In the March issue of GQ, Wil Hylton interviews Chuck Hagel:

On the admin and Iraq: "They won't call it civil war. Everybody calls it a civil war! Of course it's a civil war. The generals call it a civil war. And it's even worse than a civil war, because in addition to the sectarian violence, you've got Shia killing Shia. We have ethnic cleansing of major proportions going on in Baghdad. It's reminiscent of Bosnia."

On Congress: "We've abdicated our responsibilities. That has to do with the fact that the Republican Party controlled the White House, the House, and the Senate. When that happens, you get no probing, no questioning, no oversight. If Bill Clinton had invaded Iraq and after two years he was having the same problems, do you think the Republican Congress would have put up with that? I don't think so."

GQ: "Do you wish you'd voted differently in October of 2002, when Congress had a chance to authorize or not authorize the invasion?"

Hagel: "Have you read that resolution?"

GQ: "I have."

Hagel: "It's not quite the way it's been framed by a lot of people, as a resolution to go to war. That's not quite what the resolution said."

GQ: "It said 'to authorize the use of United States Armed Forces against Iraq.'"

Hagel: "In the event that all other options failed. So it's not as simple as 'I voted for the war.' That wasn't the resolution."

GQ: "But there was a decision whether to grant the president that authority or not."

Hagel: "Exactly right. And if you recall, the White House had announced that they didn't need that authority from Congress."

At the pen-and-pad press briefing with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Maj. Leader Harry Reid, Pelosi just responded to the dust-up over her new select committee on climate change:

"One percent are opposed to it and 99 percent want to be on it."

The McCain Inevitability Train rolls on. Today, the campaign announced that two very prominent Iowans had agreed to join McCain's team, although one of them defected from Gov. George Pataki's PAC a while ago. Ed Failor, Jr., the exec. vice president of Iowans for Tax Relief and the exec.dir. of Pres. Bush's re-election campaign in the state, will be a senior adviser. And Karen Slifka, a well-regarded Iowa consultant who ran the Midwest regional political desk for the Bush-Cheney campaign, will assist McCain's Iowa team in building a campaign organization.

There's one key, really, to winning in Iowa, and that is to train as many precinct caucus leaders as possible. First, though, you have recruit people in every precinct of every county. Then you have to spend money to train them. In '00, Bush's Iowa campaign spent more than $2 million finding and training caucus leaders. (They held more than 300 sessions across the state.)

The Republican caucuses purport to be a couple hundred straw polls put together. Caucus attendees choose their preferred candidate by secret ballot.

But the actual delegates to county conventions (which then select delegates to state conventions -- it's a very involved process that takes weeks) aren't allocated on the basis of the straw polls. They're elected, that night, in addition to -- and completely independent of -- the straw polls.

(Note that we're not talking here about the 8/11 statewide straw poll in Ames, which also requires a hefty, nimble organization.)

The more organized McCain is, the more potential delegates he has at every caucus, the more caucus leaders he has directing the process, the more actual convention delegates he can pick up, and the more supporters he can turn out on caucus night to support him in the straw poll.

A major caveat: the media will report the results of the straw poll, not the results of the aggregated delegate elections. So in theory, one candidate could "win" the statewide caucus poll and yet still not recieve the majority of delegates. That distinction will probably be lost on caucus night. The "winner" will be the person who wins the straw poll.

But if the Republican nomination becomes an all-out delegate race, then organization matters a heck of a lot.

The Troika won't begin to summarize the Democratic caucus process. Basically, they sift themselves into preference groups (don't laugh) and send delegates based on the the proportional strength of those preference groups to the next level. But it's more convoluted than that.

As the public face of one of Iowa's largest conservative grassroots groups, Failor knows Iowans in every county who can help recruit caucus leaders for McCain. And Slifka knows how to organize them. They're a potent combination for McCain. Add to the mix Chuck Larson, the former IA GOP chair and state senator, and Dave Roederer, who ran Bush's Iowa campaign in '00, and Marlys Popma, who sits alone in the top tier of social conservative activists in the state -- and you can see why McCain's strategists believe they can help a candidate who eschewed the '00 caucuses compete solidly in the '08 caucuses. [MARC AMBINDER]

Squibs

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Where's The Democratic Bandwagon?-- Biden Ascending As S.C. Choice

AZ Political News-- McCain Faces Criticism Over Vote On Funding Disclosures

Capitol Fax -- SS Numbers Distributed Toward Hacks

Georgia Political Digest-- More Than 2,500 Rally At Capitol

Iowa Politics-- Brownback's Iowa Team

JohnCombest.com -- P-D Political Fix: Blunt Ally Discounts Commentator's Speculation About '08

NhNewslinks.com -- # Rep. Seeks Change To Marriage Law

Quorum Report -- Rocker Cites Perry In Deriding Critics

Sayfie's Review -- Herald-Tribune: Giuliani Returning To Sarasota This Week

WisPolitics.com-- Kagen Apologizes For Reported White House Remarks

Hillary Rodham Clinton has accepted a NH Dem invitation to appear at its biggest annual fundraiser, the New Hampshire Union Leader's DiStaso reports. Party officials say Clinton, who officially entered the 2008 Presidential campaign 1/20, will appear at its 100 Club fund-raising dinner in Nashua on 3/10.

Ex-VP Al Gore is our dream boy.

An Inconvenient Truth was nominated for Best Documentary, natch. And also for -- forgive us -- Best Song.

(We tried to link to the Oscars Documentary page, but there was an error message.)

There was a lot of good TV last focusing on the WH race, the SOTU and the situation in Iraq. We'll focus on the WH candidate interviews and the rest will be in today's Hotline:

Hillary Clinton did interviews with the three evening newscasts last night. Her interviews with NBC and CBS were done in studio. Her interview with ABC was done via satellite.

ABC's Gibson noted in his interview with her: "I'm constrained by time because you wanted to do this in interview in unedited fashion."

More Gibson: "A lot of people think you have been running for president for years. But you said you were undecided. We took you at your word. Can you tell me was there a moment that tipped the scales, and you said, 'OK, this is it I'm going to run and this is why?'"

Clinton: "You know, after my election in New York, where I was really determined to do the best job I could as the senator from New York, I then started to think about what people had been talking to me about, literally, for years, and it was a hard decision. A lot of people had me already running, but that wasn't the way that I felt about it. And the more I thought about it, and looked at the challenges that we face as a country, I believe that I can build on all of the positive activities that we saw in the Clinton administration but go beyond that. ... And I am very fortunate that I have had a wealth of experiences going back many years that I think equips me for this particular moment in our history."

Gibson: "You are a strong, credible female candidate for president of the United States, and I mean no disrespect in this, but would you be in this position were it not for your husband?"

Clinton: "Well, I don't know. You can't go back and live your life in some other way than you've lived it. Bill and I started a conversation 35 years ago about our country. We both love this country, and I worry about her future. I never thought I would be in the Senate. I certainly didn't think I would run for president. But, you know, life has a way of putting challenges in front of you and you decide to meet them or go another direction" ("World News," 1/22).

On Iraq: "If we could figure out how to protect our troops while we extricate ourselves from the situation in Iraq then we could cut off funding. But it's very hard to do that."

Asked if her being POTUS is like Groundhog's Day: "I could on for a long time about all the good things that were done for the country and America's position in the world during the eight years of my husband's administration. I wished we hadn't deviated from the path he put the country on. ... I would like to get back to what works."

On healthcare reform: "Who better to advocate than someone who has learned the lessons of how difficult it could be."

On B. Clinton's role: "He will remain my staunchest supporter and adviser like we've been for other for more than 35 years."

On her image: "As a friend of mine says, I'm the most famous woman that no one really knows" ("Evening News," CBS, 1/22).

NBC's Williams: "This is not exactly how or when you planned to announce this. How else are you going to have to adjust to counter the presence of this Obama campaign, which is a surprise."

Clinton: "This is exactly how I intended to do this. Once I made up my mind that I was going to contest for the presidential nomination of my party, I wanted to do it on the Web, I wanted to do it before the president's State of the Union, because I wanted to draw the contrast between what we've seen, over the last six years, and the kind of leadership and experience that I would bring to the office."

Asked what else the "Obama factor" does to her campaign: "Well, it makes everything even more exciting. I've been through presidential campaigns, and this is going to be one of the best we've had in a long time. ... I know everybody, and they bring a lot of different skills and talents to this field and I'm looking forward to the election."

Asked why people don't know her: "I think it's what they think they know, the kind of person they think I am, what I care about, what I value. And it's about 180 degrees from who I am, you know."

Williams: "Well, you're one of the few alive who has seen exactly the journey that is ahead of you. I don't know if that helps or hurts."

Clinton: "It helps a lot. I don't think I'll have too many surprises coming forward" ("Nightly News," 1/22).

RICHARDSON GETS SOME INTERESTING QUESTIONS

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) played "Hardball":

Richardson: "I've got the executive experience, the drive, the vision, the optimism about this country, the patriotism to get it going again. And that's why I'm throwing my hat. I know I'm an underdog, I know that."

More: "President Clinton used to say the bad guys like Richardson, so we will send him to deal with them. The point is that if we're going to have diplomacy as our main weapon, which we should, we should be talking to North Korea, to Syria, to Iran. We should be engaging diplomatically, and I have done it. I don't have to study. I have actually negotiated, I have been face-to-face with very tough dictators, like Saddam Hussein and the North Koreans in Bashir of Sudan. That's what I bring."

MSNBC's Matthews: "Were you inspired that Jimmy Smits beat Alan Alda on 'West Wing'?"

Richardson: "Well, I watched that with interest and I liked the ending" (MSNBC, 1/22).

Richardson was also on "LKL":

Asked if he's going to take matching funds: "I have not decided. ... I'm going to be a candidate that is an underdog, that is going to be looking for funds. I'm going to look for small contributions."

Asked if being Hispanic is a plus: "Well, it's a plus, because there are a lot of states with a growing Hispanic population, not just in the Southwest but around the country. I think the American people are ready to elect either Hispanic or an African-American or a woman. But I suspect some will accuse me of being too soft on immigration or that I'm not strong enough with border security, which I am."

CNN's King: "Say good night in Spanish."

Richardson: "Buenos noches" (CNN, 1/22).

MAKING UP FOR THAT UNFORTUNATE OSAMA SLIP?

CNN's Vause went to Indonesia to check out the school Barack Obama attended, which Insight mag claimed was a madrassa:

Vause: "I've been to madrassas in Pakistan, and this school is nothing like that."

More: "This school was established in 1934 by the Dutch. It has a very broad education. It doesn't focus on religion. It has a very famous alumni. For example, the grandchildren of Indonesia's second president attended this school. The current CEO of Garuda Airlines in Indonesia's national carrier, was also a former student at Besuki Elementary. So this is just a normal elementary school, and there's a good deal of confusion here how it could be confused as being an Islamic madrassa" ("Situation Room," 1/22).

Vause: "Here, they're taught science and math and practice traditional Indonesian dance. Besuki Elementary follows a national curriculum, just like it did in the '60s and '70s. Take a close look at Obama's teachers, women and men, all in Western-style dress. There are religion classes once a week. Most of the 450 students are Muslim and are taught about Islam. The handful of Christians learn that Jesus is the son of God."

More Vause: "In fact in almost every way, Besuki is a typical, Indonesian public school, except it's in one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in Jakarta and is probably better off than most."

CNN's Cooper: "Well, that's the difference between talking about news and reporting it. You send a reporter, checks the facts and you decide at home" ("AC 360," 1/22). {EMILY GOODIN]

Left-leaning political heavyweights want to reign in rogue Democrats, launching an effort to police their issue positions, speeches and votes, and a simultaneous federal political action committee to beat them in Democratic primaries.

They Work For Us is a 501(c)4 that will pressure lawmakers through a combination of grassroots and grasstops lobbying. Member unions, like the Painters, Steelworkers and Service Employees, already have the capacity to knock on doors and set up phone banks.

Working For Us PAC, which has a separate board of directors and will be run independently of They Work For Us, plans to directly influence elections by soliciting contributions from individuals.

Their public face will be Steve Rosenthal, a legendary party strategist and labor hand. But their boards consist of labor leaders from both umbrella federations, Markos Moutlisas Zuniga, the country’s preeminent liberal blogger, Eli Pariser, the executive director of MoveOn.org

“No bad vote will go unpunished,” Rosenthal wrote on Huffingpost.com today. He outlined an agenda that “REAL Democrats must support,” which includes a “living wage for all workers,” defending unionization rights and protecting retirement security. Cultural and social litmus tests are not included in the package. Rosenthal told the Hotline, because the groups recognize that different districts have different cultural morays.

Donna Edwards, who almost beat alleged apostate Rep. Al Wynn (D-MD) in a primary last year, will be a principal in They Work For Us. Other elected officials mentioned by Rosenthal as meriting enhanced scrutiny include Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA), who is almost certain to face a primary challenge from her left in '08, and Rep. Henry Cuellar, whose conservative votes on economic matters and his occasional embrace of Pres. Bush angered Democrats in '06.

So far, They Work For Us has about $200,000 in the bank, mostly from union and interest group contributors. It aims to raise several milion dollars by 2008. The PAC has about $20,000.

The model here is clearly the Club for Growth, which has become singularly influential in Republican House primaries.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) jumped in on Saturday, as did Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS). How does Brownback's yellow brick road look?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

(How long have they been waiting to use that word?)

The Research Briefing is after the break.

(Says Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson: "Republicans attacking on Iraq? Funny.")

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

For 20 years, The Hotline has been the Beltway's go-to publication for politics. But why stop with one capital, when there are 50 others to cover? That's why we launched the Hotline Political Network, a group of state-based political news and analysis sites.

--They're unique, have bipartisan credibility, and are must-reads for decision makers and political enthusiasts in their states.

--Today, we add four new affiliates.

IowaPolitics.com features original reporting, news analysis, schedules and blog round-ups.

A Daily Shot, in SC, is a must-read daily digest of political headlines.

Political Digest, based in GA, is a daily must-read for opinion makers and business leaders in the state.

And AZ Political News rounds up all the latest news and commentary from McCain's home state.

--The Hotline Political Network allows you to quickly access superior state and local coverage on top of the comprehensive, ground-breaking analysis and reporting on national politics you've come to expect from The Hotline.

--We're not stopping at 10 states: we'll be adding more sites and features in the coming months, helping you expand your store of wisdom before it's conventional.

A correspondent writes in from today's March For Life:

"Amazing

One in 10 people have Brownback stickers. Just incredible."

And GOPProgress' Liz Mair reports anti-Mitt Romney literature is being distributed at the Right to Life March 1/22 in Washington, DC. Mair posts the full text of the leaflet which attacks Romeny on abortion and purported support for the 'morning after pill' RU-486. Mair comments: "It sounds as though Romney's run to the right continues to play badly. Very badly. Yet he's pursued this strategy so ardently that he really has no choice but to keep doing it. I mean, if he tries to go back to Moderate Mitt, he really will offer solid proof of the flip-flopping allegations.

RedState's Erick Erickson is bothered by the allegations: "Among the bullet points listed are allegations that Governor Romney flip-flopped on RU-486 -- as late as 2005 supposedly supportive of the idea of forcing Catholic hospitals to dispense the abortion drug. ... I've been on record saying I'm backing Romney, for now, but with Hillary's official announcement this weekend, I am forced to wonder if a Romney nomination dilutes too much the accusation that Hillary Clinton is a political opportunist when, by all indications, he is too." (Read the rest of today's Blogometer).

Sen. John McCain's March for Life statement:

"“Today marks the anniversary of the Roe v. Wade decision. Americans from all across the country will join together to demonstrate their opposition to the injustice sanctioned by that decision and our support for the sanctity of life in their individual communities. “The March for Life upholds and encourages respect for America’s first principle, that all are created equal and endowed with inalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. “It is the responsibility of every advocate for the rights of the innocent to communicate to our nation’s leaders our unwavering commitment to that principle. You have my deepest respect and appreciation for your refusal to be silent in the face of injustice perpetrated against the most vulnerable among us; to speak for those who cannot speak. Together, we must work to open the minds of all Americans so that we may recover our country's full devotion to the sacred right to life."

First, some debunking. The lush greenery behind Sen. Clinton in her campaign announcement video fueled a theory: Clinton had taped her announcement in the summer. Chalk it up to global warming, folks. You wouldn't believe how many trees in DC are still leaved. There's plenty of green bushes on Whitehaven Dr.
So when was it shot? "This week," a Clinton spokesperson tells us.

And we'll be exact: Wednesday, the day Sen. Clinton gave her Iraq press conference. The day after Sen. Barack Obama got into the race.

How do we think we know? This is Sen. Clinton at the presser. Here's what she wore in her videocast. Same red coat, black shirt, chain and earrings.

As he prepares to formally announces his presidential campaign, Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) is banking on a boffo showing in South Carolina. Why? Biden figures that, a year from now, Iowa and New Hampshire voters will divide the field, choosing different candidates as winners.

That'll scramble expectations heading into South Carolina, making that state, with its approx. 50 percent African American Democratic vote base, decisive. So long as Biden places third in either NH or IA, the thinking goes, he'll maintain his support in SC and is positioned to pull of the upset.

He's worked the state hard, visitng three times in '06. He already has the endorsement of several influential lawmakers, including State Reps. David Mack and Jimmy Bales. Lee Bandy, the avuncular press corps dean, clearly thinks highly of Biden. He gives one heck of a stemwinder. He is openly and occasionally clumsily courting the state's black Democratic power base. Several key black legislators are said to be private backers of Biden. He's spent quite a bit of time at South Carolina NAACP events. He's even making Republicans take notice.

Biden's advisers say he understands his climb to the nomination is steep, but his South Carolina strategy shows that he's not running to be vice president.

Squibs

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Political News-- Biden Ascending As S.C. Choice

AZ Political News-- MoveOn Blast May Benefit McCain

Capitol Fax -- Madigan On The Hot Seat

Georgia Political Digest-- Editorial: Perdue Pours Out More Hypocrisy

Iowa Politics-- Brownback's Iowa Team

JohnCombest.com -- P-D Political Fix: Blunt Ally Discounts Commentator's Speculation About '08

NhNewslinks.com -- Simmons Out Of GOP Race

Quorum Report -- Capitol Watch: Perry Cancels Lobbying Contracts

Sayfie's Review -- Herald-Tribune: Giuliani Returning To Sarasota This Week

WisPolitics.com-- Kagen Apologizes For Reported White House Remarks

Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks.

HIDE AND SEEK
Why did Dems pick Denver and GOPers choose Minneapolis for the 2008 national conventions, rather than NYC or Boston? AEI's John Fortier answers this question and proposes a few more he believes both parties must now consider. Among them, will NH once again switch party allegiance, or will Minneapolis become a GOP stronghold of the future? In attempt to tell each party's fortune, Fortier examines certain political patterns from the past to the present.

NO PLACE LIKE HOME
AEI's David Gerlenter argues that although there are several reasons to be skeptical about sending more troops to Iraq, the alternative of keeping our troops home, would prove more dangerous. Terrorists and tyrants, according to Gerlenter, could otherwise mobilize beyond the bounds of Baghdad and break into our borders.

TO THE BLOGOSPHERE AND BEYOND
Cato Institute's P.J. O'Rourke presented his new book, P.J. O'Rourke On The Wealth Of Nations, before a Cato audience in NYC. He addressed how his book offers "a modern-day spin" on Adam Smith's The Wealth Of Nations, exploring such topics as blogs and lobbyists, and how they impact politics.

HOW STRONG ARE DEM MUSCLES?
Gaining strength is typically looked upon favorably, but what happens when it is quickly acquired -- do inherant weaknesses still exist ? AEI's Kevin Hassett assesses the amount of strength Democrats have showed in their willingness to end the conflict in Iraq. Yet he concludes their power over foreign affairs could allow them to dismiss certain weaknesses at home [SARAH LOVENHEIM]

Barack Obama biggest pop culture moment in the last six months was intro-ing "Monday Night Football" on ESPN to fire up the Bears. Now, his Bears are headed to Miami for the Super Bowl. It will be interesting to see how he handles the free media moment, whether he'll be in the stands, a skybox or end up not going.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) used the weekend to get in the race. We'll take a look at her chances in a special Sunday episode of Hotline TV.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

In release Three (3) from Sen. Clinton's campaign, a gaggle of pundits and bloggers are quoted expressing their unbridled joy / respect / amazement that Clinton managed to announce her presidential campaign...well, so darned boldly.

Several of the analysts cited draw contrasts between Clinton's supposed cautioness and the directness of her campaign announcement. (Talk about low expectations!)

24 HOURS LATER, THE REVIEWS ARE IN Top pundits on Hillary’s announcement: ‘brilliant,’ ‘bold,’ ‘I’m blown away’

Clinton announcement hailed in blogs as ‘handled perfectly,’ ‘profoundly moving,’ ‘news of a generation’

24 hours after Senator Clinton announced her intent to establish a presidential exploratory committee, the announcement is garnering race reviews. Pundits from major news outlets and both parties hailed the announcement as “brilliant” and “bold,” with bloggers calling it “exciting,” “handled perfectly,” and “profoundly moving.”

A Sunday morning doesn't go by without Chuck Hagel chiming in and this Sunday's no different. Hagel was a guest on C-SPAN's "Newsmakers" and the network's P.R. dept. is trumpeting Hagel's non-answer to the question of whether he'd run for the WH as an indie.

Here are some key excerpts:

-- On WH '08: "As to my political future, that will be determined to almost the greatest extent, as it always is the case for any politician, by the people. If I decide to run for president, I will come before the American people, offer who I am, my record, my beliefs, my vision, my leadership, and it’ll be up to the American people to decide whether that fits or not; whether they want me around or not."
-- On an '08 timetable: "I will make a decision here in the next couple of weeks. I have to if I’m going to get in the presidential race."
-- On his relationship with John McCain: "I talked to him this morning. John McCain and I are very close friends, and that’s not going to change. There’s no one I admire more in the United States Congress than John McCain. John McCain has helped me a lot as I have come to the Senate. And, no matter what the differences are -- we’ve had differences before -- that personal friendship is not going to change, and I think he would say the same thing. I don’t speak for him. I can’t. ... The policy differences should never ever come between good friends, and in our case, they won’t, no matter what happens."
-- And, finally, the non-answer to the question about an indie run in '08: "I have not decided I am going to run for president, so maybe that’ll be the next set of questions that you could ask after I decide what I’m going to do."

The Richardson campaign released a list of key staff and advisers:

Among the key staff:

• Dave Contarino, who ran Richardson's first GOV campaign and was his CoS. He'll be overseeing the campaign.


• Amanda Cooper, who ran the the NM GOV re-elect and also served as the campaign's fundraising dir. She also oversaw Richardson's efforts to raise money for the DGA.


• Pahl Shipley, was most recently the Comm. Dir. and chief spokesperson in the GOV office. Before politics, Shipley worked in Albuquerque local TV news.


• Colleen Turrentine was the national fundraising director for the DLC and in '04 worked for Joe Lieberman's '04 campaign.

Among those the campaign classifies as "senior advisers":

• Steve Murphy, the DC-based media consultant who ran Dick Gephardt's '04 campaign.
• Mike Stratton, who has worked on numerous nat'l campaigns but also has had particular success in CO campaigns.
• Mark Putnam is Murphy's partner in the media biz, serving as a media adviser for over 20 years.
• Jeff Eller is the CEO of Public Strategies and is a veteran of the Clinton '92 campaign.
• Jennifer Yocham Poersch, was the dep. finance dir, for Lieberman '04 and will work with Cooper on fundraising.
• Joe Velasquez: is the candidate's political dir. and adviser on labor issues; he was a dep. political dir. in the Clinton WH.
• Calvin Humphrey is one of Richardson's key foreign policy advisers, traveling with the GOV on some of his many int'l negotiation missions.
• Andre Pineda is a CA-based pollster who, before starting his own firm, worked for Garin-Hart-Yang and Stan Greenberg.
• Suzanne Cole Nowers is CEO of Nexus Direct, a top direct marketing firm that specializes in direct mail fundraising.

NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D) made his bid official this morning, both in a release and on ABC's "This Week."

Richardson in a statement: "I am taking this step because we have to repair the damage that's been done to our country over the last six years. Our reputation in the world is diminished, our economy has languished, and civility and common decency in government has perished. The next president of the United States must get our troops out of Iraq without delay. Before I became Governor of New Mexico, I served as Ambassador to the United Nations and as Secretary of Energy. I know the Middle East well and it's clear that our presence in Iraq isn't helping any longer.

Our next President must be able to bring a country together that is divided and partisan. It is clear that Washington is broken and it's going to take a return to bipartisanship and simple respect for each other's views to get it fixed. Most public policy solutions these days are coming from Governors and state government. On issues like the environment, jobs, and health care, state governments are leading the way. And that's because we can't be partisan or we won't get our jobs done. That's a lesson I've learned as Governor and that's what I'll do as President."

During his interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos, Richardson was asked two key questions that have dogged him among Dem elites. 1) Isn't he just running for VP? 2) What about this "frat boy" image.

Richardson denied having any interest in the number 2 slot, saying that NM GOV was better than VP. As for the "frat boy" stuff, Richardson laughed it off, noting that he was a "friendly" person but also pointing out there's never been a "scandal" with him. Obviously, the ABC interview touched on a number of subjects including the governor's very deep resume on foreign affairs and the fact he comes from the new key region of American politics: The West.

As the first serious Hispanic candidate for the WH, Richardson's campaign not surprisingly has his statement available in both English and Spanish.

John Mercurio and Chuck Todd break down Hillary Clinton's strengths and weaknesses in this special Saturday edition of HotlineTV.

A comment from Jason notes:

Her announcement today is exactly 2 years to the day of "Bush's last day" (1/20/09).

We haven't seen MSM mention of this nor a major push by the Clinton folks to tease this either.

Earlier this week, I made an argument that the Dem race for the WH could last well past Feb. 5, the date most conventional wisdom worshipers are predicting will be the last day of the primary season. While I stand by the idea that the Clinton v. Obama race could turn into a delegate-for-delegate slugfest, the likelihood of Feb. 5 ending things does rise sharply if California moves up. [CHUCK TODD]

The NYTimes web site carried a PoliticalMoneyline story with the headline: "Sen. Dodd Not To Run for Re-Election In 2010."

Well, while legally true, CT Dems shouldn't start licking their chops about the supposed "open seat" in three years. In order to transfer all of his money he raised for his 2010 re-election to his WH campaign account without penalty, he had to file a statement with the FEC saying he wouldn't run. It's simply an accounting thing, nothing more. In fact, should Dodd not be elected POTUS in '08, he, indeed can legally open a new Senate 2010 account. He did this so that he could raise maximum amounts from donors who gave to that 2010 campaign account.

An inquiry to Dodd's campaign about the above mentioned story prompted the following response from spokesperson Beneva Schulte: "It's a legality that isn't an indication of future plans."

God love the FEC and its confusing rules on raising federal money.

After Hillary Clinton's announcement press release, the following are the first two press releases sent out by the campaign:

Release 1: "FYI: NEW WASHINGTON POST-ABC POLL SHOWS CLINTON LEADING DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FIELD"

Release 2: "CLINTON CANDIDACY GARNERS HUGE ONLINE RESPONSE"

Both are process releases and both are releases which attempt to show the bandwagon effect. Let the inevitability portion of the campaign begin!

Also of interest, the second release includes a quote from blogger Jerome Armstrong which takes a subtle shot at Barack Obama.

Full text of the "Online Response" release after the jump:

[Update: this post has been corrected to reflect the fact it was John McCain, not Romney who was the first official WH '08er to visit Israel]

As of this writing, Mitt Romney is on his way to Israel for a four-day whirlwind tour of the country. His list of meetings and places he's visiting is impressive. The most surprising thing about the trip? That the first two announced WH '08 candidates to visit Israel are GOPers and not Dems. [McCain went in December]. This is just more evidence that the "Israel primary" is no longer something that just the Democrats compete in.

Full schedule of Romney's Israel trip after the jump:

Sam Brownback (R) made his bid official today in Topeka. While there were some predictable lines in his announcement speech that will allow folks to pigeon-hole Brownback as the social conservative candidate, it was the other issues he mentioned which signaled that he hopes to be the social conservative candidate who is also taken seriously by the mainstream.

For instance, here are some excerpts which could have been uttered this morning by Hillary Clinton and none of us would have batted an eye:

"Let's put our energies into conquering the number one fear in America: the fear of getting cancer. We can end deaths by cancer in ten years. The last two years have seen a decrease in deaths by cancer. It's time to put this killer to death. With our intense effort, we can make it a chronic--rather than a terminal--illness. What a gift to humanity! ... We need high-quality, affordable health care for everyone. ... We must be energy self-reliant in North America in the next fifteen years--at the same time we need to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. This is possible using our ingenuity, resources, and determination. ... We are a nation at war. I just returned from Iraq and Afghanistan. Our troops--the finest, most courageous people our nation has to offer--are fighting for the cause of liberty in places that have never known her. It is a long fight. We will win. We cannot lose our will to win! We must win to redeem our troops' sacrifice. Let us resolve to have a bipartisan strategy for the war. We need unity here to win over there. This is not the time for partisanship on any side. Lives--and our future--are at stake. "

Full text of speech after the jump

From Ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA):

“We’re glad that Senator Clinton is joining the race. We’re also happy that the field is getting set so that the Democratic Party and America begin the debate about how to fix the mess made here at home and around the world by the Bush administration. Our country is demanding a president who has the courage to create change, and so we’re happy to begin that discussion with all of the Democratic and Republican candidates.”

With Clinton's surprise Saturday announcement, the NYTimes decided to post their major Sunday story on the battle between Obama and Clinton for NYC, Chicago and L.A. donors early. If you like celebrity donor stories, then this Healy/Zeleny co-bylined analysis is for you. At a minimum, you'll find out who won the Soros primary.

“I am one of the millions of women who have waited all their lives to see the first woman sworn in as president of the United States — and now we have our best opportunity to see that dream fulfilled.

On the national stage and in the neighborhoods of New York, Senator Hillary Clinton has repeatedly put her expertise and power behind solutions that make the lives of the American people safer and more prosperous. No one is more qualified to bring to the White House the kind of principled and effective leadership our nation so desperately needs.

It is with tremendous excitement and pride that EMILY’s List endorses Senator Hillary Clinton for president. As Senator Clinton begins her historic journey, EMILY’s List will be with her every step of the way — raising early money from our grassroots donor network of more than 100,000 EMILY’s List members, using our vast political resources to help her build a strong national campaign, and mobilizing millions of women voters through our groundbreaking WOMEN VOTE! program to support her and every Democrat on the ticket in 2008.”

Tomorrow at 2:00 pm, per an aide.

Ironically, at the Chelsea-Clinton Community Center.

It's not named after her daughter; it's a community center that straddles those two neighborhoods in Manhattan.

Here's a description of the event:

Senator Clinton will be joined by Barbra E. Minch, President & CEO, William F. Ryan Community Health Network and Dr. Irwin Redlener, the president and co-founder of The Children’s Health Fund to discuss legislation that would expand the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP).

Simple, says a senior adviser to Clinton.

Announcing today virtually guarantees that Clinton will be the Democratic Party's de-facto foil on Tuesday night, when Pres. Bush gives his State of the Union address.

Look closely at Sen. Clinton's exploratory committee website, and you'll discover that she's asking for contributions as high as $4200 from individuals.

What does that mean?

Because the limit on individual contributions is $2100 per election, it means that Clinton is raising money for two accounts -- her primary account and a general election account.

In other words -- Clinton becomes the first candidate to officially acknowledge that she won't accept federal matching funds for either the primary and the general election.

We asked Sen. Barack Obama's campaign for reaction. They sent us this statement:

"Senator Clinton is a good friend and a colleague whom I greatly respect. I welcome her and all the candidates, not as competitors, but as allies in the work of getting our country back on track. "

Don't want Matt Drudge to dictate the countours of your exploratory committee announcement?

Just announce when he's fast asleep.... and not updating his site!

(As of 9:57 a.m.... no HRC.....)

An aide to a Clinton rival e-mails: "Am I wrong or isn't the phrase "in it to win" a little underwhelming when you're talking about being IN an exploratory committee?"

Mark Penn, one of Clinton's top strategist, asks and attempts to answer THE question in the first few lines of a memo posted to the campaign website.

People are always asking, can Hillary Clinton win the presidency? Of course she can. In many of the polls out today, she is already winning.

Even before announcing her presidential campaign, Hillary has already proved wrong all the pundits who say that people already know her and that voters won't change their minds. In the last year, the percentage of people who have a favorable impression of Hillary Clinton in the CBS poll rose 34 percent (from 32 to 43, the highest of any Democratic contender). In the December Washington Post poll, she now has the highest favorable rating of any known Democrat (56 percent), and these were her best ratings since 1999. Hardcore Republicans don't like Hillary for the simple reason that they know she can win, and if she does, she will change the policies of their hero, George W. Bush. She has a strong appeal among both Democrats and independents, the two groups it takes to win.

What about state polls? She's behind in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Now that Hillary has closed the gap nationally with the Republicans, the pundits will shift the argument to ask how she will do in Iowa and New Hampshire. Some polls show her down in those states, others, like a recent ARG poll, show her up. The polls in these states are famous for turning around many times as voters get to know the candidates up close. While some candidates have been in Iowa and New Hampshire for years, running as permanent presidential candidates, Hillary has been working hard as a senator for New York. Today she is announcing an exploratory committee and announcing she will start a conversation with the people in those states and across America. To them, she is famous but really unknown -- and she will be meeting the primary voters in the same person-to-person way that she met the voters of New York, where she became the state's highest Democratic vote-getter in their recent primary.

## Beginning Monday night, Clinton will host a series of video podcasts on her website.

Hillary will answer your questions in a discussion streamed live over the Internet.

## Clinton plans to travel to Iowa next weekend, and to New Hampshire the weekend after that. Quietly, top Democrats in those states were asked to help scout locations and events for Clinton to attend. Clinton aides stress that this plan is tentative.

With a simple headline on her web site, Hillary Clinton, announced this morning she's running for president. Click here for what seemed to be text of her speech, though a close look at the text shows it's slightly different from the webcast speech currently on the site. In the webcast, she talks about Iraq, energy independence and health care. She used a familiar Bill Clinton phrase, "work hard and play by the rules." While not bringing up her Chicago background, she did say, "I grew up in a middle class family in the middle of America."

She announced the makings of what appears to be a virtual listening tour with the launch of "live online video chats" which begin Monday. Clinton said she wants to start a dialogue "because the conversation in Washington has been a little one-sided lately."

Full text of Clinton's letter after the jump. Again, though, the text doesn't match the video webcast.

Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

Senator Ted Kennedy resoundingly won re-election this year in Massachusetts. But since November his e-mails have kept coming as if Kennedy's still running, sending messages to his Internet community up to once a week.

So far his efforts have not been in vain: Kennedy just had his strongest week ever online. He sent an e-mail asking supporters to sign a petition on Iraq, and in just two days his e-mail list increased by more than 15 percent. Kennedy's e-mail brought in 85,000 signatures for his petition, 35,000 of which were new addresses to the list.

It is unlikely that Kennedy will aspire to higher office, nor is he in full fundraising mode for his hypothetic 2012 campaign. But many candidates, winners and losers alike, maintain their e-mail lists to raise money, awareness, or keep their online community active for a future run to office.

"I think that it is fair to infer that people who continue to send e-mail are either interested in pursing public offices again or want to be identified with issues that they want to continue to promote," said Becki Donatelli, the President of Campaign Solutions, a Republican Internet firm.

Kennedy uses his growing e-mail to gather support for his initiatives, but how about these candidates who have used their e-mail lists since the campaign ended?

-John Edwards regularly sent out e-mails on his list from the end of his 2004 campaign until he announced his Presidential bid for 2008 a few weeks ago.
-Bill Frist's VOLPAC sent out a Holiday e-mail around Christmas, about two weeks after he left the White House field. It's been reported that he's seriously considering running for Tennessee Governor in 2010.
-General Wesley Clark sends e-mails at least once a month to his online community and while people are increasingly less convinced he'll go for the White House in 2008, OTD reported his site ranked higher than any other candidates' during last summer.
-Former Rep. Mark Green, the failed Wisconsin Republican nominee for Governor in 2006, sent out an e-mail in late December marking the Holidays. A Democrat took his house seat in '06, and many think Green has a shot at taking it back for the Republicans this cycle.
-Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, also rumored to be a potential candidate for Vice President, sent an e-mail out this week on his state of the state address.
-Dina Titus, who unsuccessfully made a bid for Nevada Governor, continues to send e-mails to her list in December. Titus said she's keeping her options open about a bid for Nevada's 3rd Congressional district.

Titus, also Nevada's Senate Minority Leader, says she continues to use her list for legislative initiatives and to inform state Democrats about the new early Nevada caucuses.

"We worked very had to build that base during the campaign," Titus said. "And I feel like it's a good way to keep in touch with my hard core supporters...so they'll be there will be if I run for re-election or plan to run for something else" [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Bytes
*Technology firm Convio, Inc. has acquired Get Active, which has done e-mail and Internet for left-leaning campaigns and organizations such as Progressive Patriots Fund and Human Rights Campaign. Convio made a name for itself with Howard Dean's 2004 campaign but experienced blogosphere backlash when it took on a conservative client.

*The DNC released a new podcast featuring a conversation with activist and military mom Nita Martin, the mother of two Marines who have served in Iraq.

Sen. John McCain added heft and experience today to the team that will produce his campaign ads. Russ Schriefer, a former media strategist for Pres. Bush, will oversee the team, which includes Mark McKinnon, Bush's former chief ad man, and the firm of Stevens Reed Curcio & Potholm. Also, McCain's exploratory committee announced that Fred Davis, an creative whiz who oversaw Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's '06 re-election ads, will be the campaign's chief creative consultant. Schriefer's business partner, Stuart Stevens, will also work on McCain's ads. All four are among the GOP's best media talents, and they benefit from the experience of working together on the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign.

National Media's Alex Castellanos will produce ads for Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA).

One other feather added to McCain's cap today: he's hired, as a consultant, Rob Gray, a Massachusetts GOPer who ran Ex-MA L.G. Kerry Healy's gubernatorial campaign last cycle. One Republican says the Gray hire "is like buying the research book on Romney." Healy was, of course, Romney's lieutenant governor. The AP has more context.

This week on Hotline TV, we figure why Pres. Bush needs John McCain's help in staying relevant, read into the unintended consequences of an Obama WH bid, and wonder if Al Franken is serious about running, then we race through the fastest 2 mins in politics.

Visit HotlineTV.net for this week's big show, the latest news and predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes!

The following is a true story. One night, South Korean security agents guarding the suite of then-President Bill Clinton noticed a handsome young man stumble through the door at 4:40 in the morning. The agents wondered whether Clinton was having an affair. With a man. They asked their U.S. Secret Service counterparts whether there was anything they should know about the president. Was he... you know?

The agents laughed. The man, they said, was just Terry McAuliffe, the happily married, very heterosexual best friend of the president's. Clinton had kept him up late playing cards.

McAuliffe delights in revealing that story in his new book, What A Party, which is full of candor, (a wee bit of) blarney (or so the author says), and McAuliffe;s famous, endearing bluster. There are also more than a few good stories.

Reading it with an eye for nuggets and keeping in mind McAuliffe's penchant for being McAuliffe, we learn that

(a) Bill Clinton was irate on the eve of his '00 convention that Gore's staff allegedly "slowed down" the schedule to prevent him from appearing in prime time.

(b) At the end of her Senate campaign in '00, Hillary Clinton was close to running out of money.

(c) Ralph Nader is an "egomaniac."

(d) Yassir Arafat liked to the rub the legs of those he was conversing with over dinner.

(e) Arafat's aides trusted McAuliffe and used him as an emissary to Pres. Clinton

(f) the Marc Rich pardon "was a mistake" but wasn't, according to McAullife, Clinton's fault

(g) McAuliffe reveals the details of "many heated discussions" with Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) over the primary calendar.

(h) McAuliffe, accompanied by then AZ Dem chair Jim Pederson and his wife Roberta, once walked in on Kerry shirtless, and "pulling up his pants"

(i) Asked by Cherie Blair what Americans thought of her husband, McAuliffe responded that "most people think you're a lap-dog for President Bush." Cherie Blair then elbowed her husband and said "See, Tony, I told you so."

There's oodles in the book about the '04 election and behind-the-scenes disputes with Kerry and his team.

One name we couldn't find in the book: Bob Shrum. [MARC AMBINDER]

American Research Group (R) released polls in 8 states just after The Hotline's deadline today. In each state, 600 likely primary voters of each party were surveyed; margin of error +/- 4%.

As further prrof that the Dem primary is coalescing less around its front-runners than the GOP primary, no fewer than 4 Dems lead in different states. Sure, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) takes the lion's share of states and the only other winners take their home states (save a tie in MI), but at least other candidates are leading. On the GOP side, only 2 front-runners lead among the 8 states polled [REID WILSON].

See polls:

Sunday

* Meet the Press hosts Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Ted Kennedy (D-MA).
* Face the Nation hosts Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and the Politico's John Harris, Jim Vandehei, and Josephine Hearn.
* This Week hosts Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM). ABC's Jan Crawford Greenburg talks about her new book on SCOTUS. And there's a classic roundtable of Sam Donaldson, Cokie Roberts and George Will.
* Fox News Sunday hosts Sens. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Carl Levin (D-MI) and ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich.
* Late Edition hosts Iraqi Amb. to the U.S. Samir Sumaidaie, Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Patrick Leahy (D-VT), and Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA) and Mike Pence (R-IN).

Other Weekend Shows

* On Washington Week, Los Angeles Times' Doyle McManus discusses Pres. Bush's Iraq strategy, Washington Post's Dan Balz looks at the '08 Iraq politics, U.S. News' Linda Robinson looks at Iraq military tactics and NBC's Pete Williams discusses the admin's decision on electronic monitoring (PBS, FRI, 8 p.m.).
* This Week at War hosts Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (CNN, SAT, 7 p.m.).
* Jeremy Piven hosts SNL with musical guest AFI (NBC, SAT, 11:30 p.m.).
* Political Capital hosts ex-CIA dir. James Woolsey (Bloomberg, repeats throughout weekend).
* C-SPAN will have live coverage of Sam Brownback's WH announcement (SAT, 1 p.m.).
* Road to the White House will be live as C-SPAN introduces its new campaign bus in Des Moines with Des Moines Register's David Yepsen, ex-IA GOP chair Mike Mahaffey, and ex-IA Dem Chair Dave Nagle (C-SPAN, SUN, 6:30 p.m.).
* NewsMakers features Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) (C-SPAN, SUN, 10:00 a.m.).
* Book TV presents an encore presentation of "Too Soon to Say Goodbye" with Art Buchwald (C-SPAN2, SAT, 10:30 a.m.).
* Book TV also features Mike Huckabee talking about his new book (C-SPAN2, SAT, 2:50 p.m.).
* Throughout the day on SAT and SUN, C-SPAN will have coverage of "The Carter Presidency" conference at the Univ. of GA.

Programming Note:
Beginning this Sunday, ABC's "This Week" will start airing at 10 am in DC.

Coverage Of The RNC Winter Meeting

With a few dissents, Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) was elected general chair of the Republican Nat'l Cmte this afternoon. RNC general counsel Mike Duncan was elected chair.

We all know '06 was bad for the GOP. But the breadth of the Dem victory shows up starkly in a new Hotline analysis of the cumulative nat'l vote for House candidates by state editor Quinn McCord.

Dems won 54.1% of the two-party vote in '06, much better than the GOP's 52.5% win in '02. That fueled Dem advantages in 27 states last year, compared to only 19 in '02. Most importantly, Dems carried the net vote in several swing states (OH, PA, MI, NV, NH), some of which they hadn't carried in more than a decade. Even in the reddest states, GOPers struggled to win more than 55% last year. They lost TN and NC outright. Also, Dems let only 10 GOPers go unchallenged in '06, compared to 45 uncontested Dem seats.

Heading into '08, this is good news for a party whose WH nominee hasn't carried a majority of the popular vote since '76. In broad (and surprising) regions, vast numbers of Americans pulled the Dem lever last year. Was '06 a blip of good Dem news? Or the start of a long-term improvement in the brand name "Democrat"?

Here's the nat'l summary of two-party House results for the past four cycles; Leading totals are bolded:

         GOP U.S. House Votes      Dem U.S. House Votes
2000     47,238,467 (50.3%)        46,701,783 (49.7%)
2002     37,428,113 (52.5%)        33,905,437 (47.5%)
2004     56,112,869 (51.4%)        53,128,318 (48.6%)
2006     35,904,068 (45.9%)        42,291,298 (54.1%)

4-yr
Total   176,683,517 (50.1%)       176,026,836 (49.9%)

Coverage Of The RNC Winter Meeting

Members of the Republican Nat'l Committee passed on Thursday a strongly-worded resolution rebuking a signature accomplishment of their party's frontrunner, Sen. John McCain -- his Bipartisan Campaign Finance Act, known as McCain-Feingold.

The 13-paragraph resolution, sponsored by RNC member and campaign finance litigator James Bopp Jr, urges Congress to "adopt common sense reforms of BCRA" by giving political parties "increased freedom to coordinate their activities with their candidates" and allowing parties to use "lawfully raised state funds" -- i.e., soft money -- to register voters and bring them to the polls.

A Whereas clause alleges that BCRA "has made campaign finance regulations unbearably complex," which has "deterred political participation by many average citizens and modest-sized citizens groups," especially state and local parties.

But has BCRA really hurt the GOP? Nationally, as RNC chief of staff selected Kelley McCullough noted in her farewell address, the party managed to raise about as much as it did before soft money was banned, and was able to expand its donor base by more than 170,000. But state parties took the brunt of the impact because they can now only use federal money for party programs that benefit both federal and state/local candidates.

The RNC has set $76 million for its 2007 fundraising goals.

It's unlikely that McCain will repudiate the thrust of BCRA, although he has been open to changing his mind on further campaign finance regulation. He recently dropped his support of an ethics reform provision that "grassroots" groups like Nat'l Right To Life and the ACLU worried would be too onerous on small organizations engaged in political or lobbying group. [MARC AMBINDER]

Coverage Of The RNC Winter Meeting

So who showed up at the dueling McCain and Romney parties last night for RNC members?

McCain: Gov Tim Pawlenty, RNC chair Ken Mehlman, Sen. Lindsey Graham, Rep. Tom Reynolds, Rep. Ray Lahood, Rep. Dan Lungren, Rep. Todd Platts, Rep. Fred Upton and Rep. John Shimkus. Also: Sen. John Thune.

For Romney: Mary Matalin, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC), Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), Reynolds, Mehlman, Rep. Paul Ryan, Rep. Tom Price, and Ex-Rep. Jim Talent.

Update: Gov. Sonny Perdue (R-GA) did not attend Sen. McCain's party.

From today's Hotline:

The Rep. elected with the fewest actual votes 11/7/06 was Rep. Gene Green (D-TX 29) who won 37,174 votes. The highest number, as usual, went to Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT), with 239,124 votes. The Dem with the most votes was Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D-SD), with 230,468, while the winning GOPer with the fewest was Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY 13) with 59,334 votes. Losing GOP candidates with the greatest and fewest votes were John Gard (R-WI 08), with 135,622, and Ali Mohamed (R-NY 16) with 2,759. The losing Dem with the most votes was Monica Lindeen (D-MT) with 158,916, while the fewest Dem votes were cast in LA-01, where two Dems received only 15,944 votes combined

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Obamarama - Levine, Rezko, Cari

JohnCombest.com -- KC Star: KC To Play Host To Bush

NhNewslinks.com -- Duo Of Democrats Say They Will Try To Unseat Sununu

Quorum Report -- Craddick Vows Not To Get Even With Critics

Sayfie's Review -- Sentinel: Martinez Faces Fight To Keep Party In Line

Senior Republican officials estimate to the Hotline that all but 20 members of the RNC will vote for general chairman designee Mel Martinez when the secret balloting begins at 10:30 am.

Hillary Clinton continued her media tour with stops on PBS and FNC:

PBS' Ifill: "There are those who say that your evolution on the war has been, number one, behind the public curve of opinion and, number two, right in line with your thinking on presidential aspirations. Is that so?"

Clinton: "Well, obviously, I don't believe so. What I've tried to do as a consistent critic of what they have done in Iraq is to search for common ground."

Ifill: "Well, and speaking of elections, 2008 looms. And I wonder to the degree to which you feel pressure, when you talk about the political pressure being brought to bear on this debate, whether you feel pressure from other aspiring Democrats, like John Edwards and Barack Obama, who right after you released your proposal yesterday released an identical one?"

Clinton: "Well, my view on this is, I have to do what I believe is right and what I think is responsible. Others will do what they choose to do. ... I don't think that, you know, rhetoric or political positioning is what is needed. I think that we have to work our way through this."

Asked if there is a connection between '08 aspirations and the Iraq debate: "I'll leave that to others to assess, because I have been, as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, you know, deeply involved in trying to fix what has been a disastrous policy. ... I believe that it's important that we try to forge a bipartisan consensus here in the Senate, disapproving this escalation as the very first step we take, and then move forward, using the appropriations process and the authorization process, which is kind of, you know, congressional speak for trying to put some limits and force some changes on the administration. And let's not kid ourselves. I think this administration is also focused on Iran. And I think we need to send a very strong message that an administration with its track record of failure, of arrogance, of refusal to listen and learn from the disastrous steps that have, unfortunately, been taken should not be rushing off and putting American servicemembers in harm's way and possibly widening the conflict. So there's a lot that we have to worry about" ("NewsHour," PBS, 1/18).

On arriving in Baghdad: "Unfortunately the weather was bad and so we were told we might have to divert. ... Our response was, let's try. ... We circled over Baghdad for about 90 minutes and we had a great crew. When you fly into a war zone like Baghdad, and I've done it numerous times now, there and elsewhere, you know, the C-130 does a kind of corkscrew landing and my colleague Senator Bayh, from Indiana, said to the crew, he said, you know, 'If you see an openings -- beers for everybody if you can get in.' ... We got through a sliver of, you know, space we could see to the ground, got on the ground. But, because the weather was so bad we couldn't helicopter to the Green Zone. So, we drove the highway from the airport there, and some people call it the 'highway of death' because of all of the bombs, the improvised explosive devices, now these new, shape chargers that are being manufactured and killing our guys and exploding even the armored Humvees. So, it was a bit of a challenge to get to our meetings."

More: "In '03, the first time I went, we drove from the airport into the Green Zone. We drove around Baghdad. We didn't have any problem getting around, we went to Sadr City to see the 82nd Airborne. You know? We were out in Baghdad. We went up to Kirkuk, drove into the city, met with leaders of the various groups in the city. It was not required that I wear body armor" ("On the Record," FNC, 1/18).

ME TOO

Joe Biden did his own media tour:

On the resolution: "What I think you're more likely to see is other Republicans coming up with their own resolution that essentially says what Hagel and Levin and I and Snowe say."

More: "I have a second resolution -- a law actually -- that I'm in the process of drafting. I will be seeking bipartisan support, making it clear that the authorization for the use of force that the president got three-and-a-half years ago does not -- emphasize does not -- give him the authority to attack Syria or Iran. That would be a disaster."

Asked if we'll still be fighting in Iraq in '08: "Yes, if the Republicans do not make it clear to the president. Now, look, we're in the majority by one. ... The thing that brought Nixon down and made it clear that he'd hand over the tapes wasn't
any vote in the Congress. It was when a group of Republican senators got in the car and went down to the president, said, 'Mr. President, the jig is up'" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 1/18).

More Biden on the resolution: "I know that the Republican leadership is surprised that the Biden-Hagel resolution was able to get two leading Republicans to sign onto. ... I think they're going to be surprised when we vote it out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. And evidence of the fact that they are worried about it, the word right now is -- and I don't know this for a fact -- is, the Republican leadership is talking about filibustering the ability to vote on this."

On '08: "I'm going to set up a committee, hopefully, by the end of this month. We're just doing the mechanics of it. But, in terms of the sort of fly-around, where you have large crowds, and announce, and all that, I probably won't do that until a little bit later. But I will be making it clear. I am running and setting up a Biden for president committee, not exploratory, flat Biden for president, and trying to raise the funds to be able to compete, which I think I can do" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/18).

AND THE OTHERS

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), on Bill Bennett calling from him to run in '08: "I'm not going to do that, of course. It's flattering that Bill would be talking about this, but I can assure that I will not be running for president of the United States. I just got re-elected to a great job by my constituents in Arizona. And being in the Senate, working on these problems, talking to you, there's a lot to that. I enjoy that and I'm going to continue to do that" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/18).

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH): "I'm the only candidate who not only consistently opposed the war but who voted against funding the war. Today, the big debate is escalation. The debate ought to be ending the occupation, and it ought to be not funding the war, to bring our troops home" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 1/18).

Newt Gingrich, on why he's waiting until Labor Day to announce his '08 intentions: "I don't want to go around for the next eight months and go to six meetings a day begging for money."

On why people announce so early: "First of all, the two things that drive early candidacies are consultants who need to get paid and who are running around saying to all these guys, 'Hire me, hire me, hire me.' And, second, The Hotline, and the fact that there's a whole group of people like the three of us who every day have to have as much politics as we can get. And what are you going to do today? Those two things are driving it" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 1/18).

CNN's J. King: "Two-time presidential candidate Jesse Jackson tells CNN, he is all but certain to endorse Barack Obama's 2008 White House bid" ("PZ Now," 1/18). [EMILY GOODIN]

Political aides to ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) will reorganize his presidential exploratory efforts over the next two weeks, expanding his national finance team and adding staff in early primary states to try to transform the New York-centric operation into a credible national campaign.

Giuliani backers have run into resistance among major fundraisers and with activists in early primary states because these activists are not convinced that Giuliani actually intends to run, his aides said. In Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Giuliani lags behind Sen. John McCain and Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney in recruiting staff.

“A revamping and a ramping up of the finance operation is occurring and will continue to unfold in the days and weeks to come,” a Giuliani insider said.

Giuliani’s exploratory committee will add a half dozen regional finance directors charged with raising money from tens of thousands of Republicans all across the country. Until now, the fundraising operation has been organized around donors in New York and Texas who could contribute the maximum and raise money for Giuliani from their friends. In the past, some of Giuliani’s top advisers have said that Giuliani would not run if he couldn't raise enough money to compete with McCain.

In addition, Giuliani’s team plans to announce senior level staff positions in early primary states. Also, the campaign is close to reaching an agreement with a pollster and media consultant. Aides to Giuliani declined to reveal the names of their expected hires.

The moves are “a recognition that things need to fall into place” in order for Giuliani to be taken seriously as a presidential candidate, the insider said.

This week’s announcement that ex-Rep. Jim Nussle would assist Giuliani in Iowa and the unveiling of four New Hampshire staffers to a Manchester political reporter are the first steps in that process.

“As we continue to expand our fundraising and finance team, the support we are getting is exciting,” said Roy Bailey, Giuliani’s finance chair.

Aides said there was no tension between Giuliani’s crew of long-time advisers, and his crop of new advisers, led by Michael DuHaime, the outgoing RNC political director, who was hired to run the campaign itself. They described the campaign expansion as a necessary step in the evolution of Giuliani’s candidacy. And they said that Giuliani himself recognizes the problem and agreed that changes were needed. One small example: statements from Giuliani himself will no longer be distributed by staff from his consulting firm. Instead, they will be sent out in the name of his campaign press aides. [MARC AMBINDER]

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

As he tries to sell his Iraq surge plan, Pres. Bush needs John McCain more than ever, a new Diageo/Hotline poll shows.

-- The plan is widely unpopular, no matter who the author is. Without associating the plan with any one leader, it receives only 34% support. But the survey shows voters are more inclined to back a "McCain strategy" (37% support) on Iraq than a "Bush strategy" (32% support). McCain aligned himself with Bush in '04 to bolster his GOP creds; Now, it appears Bush needs to cozy up to McCain now to help sell the surge -- and keep himself relevant. How far will McCain play this hand, considering the pitfalls of running as the de facto Bush/Cheney candidate in '08?

-- For now, he can afford to take the risk. Despite a big lead for Dems (44%-26%) in a WH '08 generic ballot test, McCain leads all 3 top Dems (Clinton, 48%-39%; Edwards, 45%-35%; and Obama 43%-38%) in head-to-heads. The best Dem scenario? Edwards vs. Giuliani, in which the ex-NC Sen would pick up 41% to the ex-NYC Mayor's 40%. Both HRC and Obama lose to Giuliani.

-- Newly-minted Speaker Nancy Pelosi's fav ratings have doubled since 9/06, from 18% to 36%; her unfavs have only inched up slightly, to 27%. Nearly 1 in 5 GOPers give her thumbs-up. Here's a shocker: More Americans approve of her job performance than approve of Bush's.

-- Also, slightly more voters view Congress favorably (31% this month, up from 27% just after Election Day), for the 1st time since at least last summer.

-- Another pol who's popular these days: Joe Lieberman, who boasts a 45%/26% fav/unfav rating. (Are you listening, Obama?).

-- But bad news for MA Gov. Mitt Romney: Mormonism is only slightly more popular than Islam, and GOPers are 10 points more likely to view Romney's religion unfavorably than Dems. Looks like he has his work cut out for him.

Extra: See the full poll results here:

Sen. Wayne Allard is not running for re-election. We'll find out who the next Colorado Senator is: Sen. Udall? Sen. McInnis? Sen. Elway?!?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Coverage Of The RNC Winter Meeting

Members of the Republican National Committee are taking shelter from their minority status in the bowels of a Washington business hotel. Aside from the drama of the general chairman's selection, no subject seems to come up more than the 2008 presidential race. It's strictly subtext, though. No one wants to venture an opinion out loud. There's the new executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, fielding a question from a reporter about a straw poll. Lording over the press table is Brian Jones, the RNC's communications director, who starts next Tuesday as John McCain's chief press planner. One level up is his friend, Michael DuHaime, tasked with managing Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign, a cell phone stuck to his ear. (Already departed is the GOP's legendary research chief, Matt Rhoades, who is now in Boston working for Mitt Romney.)

The candidates themselves have presences. Tonight, McCain will fete RNC members at Arcadia restaurant. Mitt Romney, who unveiled 16 RNC member endorsements this morning, is paying for dinner at Olive's. Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, has a reception, too. (He'll serve the healthiest food, we bet.)

As the media unveils Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) personal past times, it may seem as though "America has started dating" Obama. Yet as in any relationship, there are certain factors to consider before deciding if a more serious relationship is realistic. Hotline senior editor John Mercurio wonders whether race will be the greatest one -- if it is, will relations stay casual or speed up?

From today's Hotline:

In the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, we asked what issue should be the "lowest" priority for the new Congress to tackle in the first 100 hours. Among self-described independents, 31% chose "stem cells" as the lowest priority, followed by corporate tax cuts and ethics. Over all, all respondents chose tax cuts as their lowest priority, followed by stem cells and then implementing the 9/11 commis. recommendations.

Coverage of the RNC Winter Meeting in DC

Saul Anuzis, the blogging chair of the MI GOP, wanted to see whether RNC general chair designee Mel Martinez would present his views on immigration -- he's for a guest worker program -- as representing the official view of the GOP. The answer, according to a conversation Anuzis had with Martinez last night, is No.

Anuzis writes that he "asked him about his role and Senator vs that of General Chairman and how he planned on balancing that. Specifically, we talked about his position on immigration reform and his support for the Senate bill that provided “amnesty” for illegal immigrants."

Here's the response:

He talked about the process and how the bill developed. However, his main point was that he felt it was important to separate his role and position as Senator from that of General Chairman. He said he was committed to NOT use his position as General Chairman to push any issue nationally or advance his personal agenda through the RNC. He was very much aware of how difficult this would be, but was committed to serving the RNC and the President the best he could while respecting the fact that some of his positions may not be in line with much of the grassroots in the party.

Anuzis concludes: "Overall, Senator Martinez is a pretty conservative Senator. Even though he had a career as a trial lawyer, he voted for “tort reform” last year, he wants to see limited government and the expansion of personal responsibility and opportunity in American."

Coverage of the RNC Winter Meeting

The Republican Party faces a bleak future unless it recaptures the mantle of reform and holds itself to high ethical standards, outgoing RNC chairman Ken Mehlman is set to warn his party today.

"We cannot write this election off as pre-ordained, as the natural order of things, to be automatically rectified in two years," a draft of Mehlman's remarks says. "If we shrug our shoulders and say “it was just a fluke, a perfect storm of factors out of our control” … then we will lose again in 2008." The GOP "should never, never be the Party of government … of Washington, DC … of earmarks … of bureaucracy."

On ethics, Mehlman will say that the GOP "must – must – hold its elected officials … its candidates … its staff … everyone … to the absolute highest ethical standards." Mehlman: "If there are Republicans for whom influence or power or money have become more important than serving the public and the nation, then let me make it perfectly clear: we don’t want you."

He ends by urging Republicans to unite with Democrats to fight a common enemy: "against a new totalitarian enemy," which is Islamic fascism.

"This struggle affects all Americans," Mehlman plans to say. "Some of the most offensive features of Islamic fascist ideology are its religious intolerance … its gender apartheid … and its homophobia. He continues: "Authors and thinkers of the left like Christopher Hitchens and Bruce Bawer, and politicians like Joe Lieberman and Ed Koch, have recognized this. So must we."

Mehlman does not spend much time discussing the war in Iraq, arguably the major albatross around Republican necks right now.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- "Enough Is Enough"

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Abortion Foes 'Regrouping And Taking Stock'

NhNewslinks.com -- Granite Status: Assembling Campaign Teams

Quorum Report -- Perry's Talk Of Unity Hits A Sour Note, Some Say

Sayfie's Review -- Herald: GOP Opponents To Martinez Emerge

WisPolitics.com -- Thompson Campaign: Announces Key Committee Staff, Advisors in Iowa

One of the most entrenched bits of conventional wisdom about the next presidential race is that both parties will have their nominees by Feb. 6, 2008, the day after that year's version of "Super Tuesday." It's practically guaranteed by the front-loaded calendar.

Some (including me) actually think this race will end earlier. There are certain candidates who -- if they win the Iowa caucuses on the evening of Jan. 14 -- will likely wrap up the primary campaign that night.

But as I've learned all too often, the law of unintended consequences seems to be stronger than conventional wisdom in the world of politics. This new calendar has never been tested with two equally strong front-runners.

It's still a long time until next January's Iowa caucuses, but the formal entrances this week of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and (possibly) New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton should give rise to the notion that it's actually possible the Democratic nomination won't be settled by Feb. 6. In fact, there's a chance that the battle between these two superstars could go on to the convention. Now, before dismissing this notion as a political junkie's pipe dream, hear me out [CHUCK TODD]

Continue Reading On The Trail.

Matt Rodriguez, a deputy political director on Dick Gephardt's '04 campaign and a deputy manager for Bill Bradley's '00 campaign in NH, will run Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in NH.

The New Hampshire Union Leader's John DiStaso has four names associated with Rudy Giuliani's potential New Hampshire campaign, including possible pol. dir David Tille.

Also, Sen. Sam Brownback has an IA political director, Jay Heine.

Ex-WI Gov. Tommy Thompson added some muscle to his Iowa political team yesterday, including the chairman of IA College GOPers, Bobby Kaufmann.

Kaufmann will become Thompson's event coordinator in IA.

Also joining the team: Ex-Forbes '00 pol. dir Chad Olsen, who managed Steve Sukup's '02 IA Gov race. Olsen will manage the exploratory cmte and later, if Thompson decides to run, will manage the national campaign.

Also -- ex-IA House Speaker Ron Corbett and Ex-IA Fed. of Republican Women pres. Gwen Ecklund.

Steve Grubbs, who was Bob Dole's IA state chair in '96 is Thompson's lead consultant in Iowa, along with Brian Dumas, a veteran of Sen. Chuck Grassley's staff and a former Lamar! for President aide.

There were two main topics on TV last -- Iraq and Hillary Clinton:

Most of the Iraq talk focused on the GOP's differences with Pres. Bush:

MSNBC's Viqueira: "We haven't seen a lot of [House Min. Leader John] Boehner in public lately, but he's been bringing in Republican rank and file to try to find a middle ground between supporting the president 100 percent -- which many members do not want to do -- and pulling the rug out from under the president which obviously leadership does not want to do" ("Hardball," 1/17).

CNN's Koppel: "Senator McConnell had planned to meet with a number of members of the Republican caucus to try to work out some opposing views" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 1/17).

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA): "I don't care what you call it, a surge, an increase -- what the Republican president is doing is sending reinforcements to Iraq to carry out his plan. And if the Democrats cut off the reinforcements, the American troops will never forgive them and I think the American people will never forgive them. I think the Republican senators should be loud and clear on that issue" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 1/17).

Pat Buchanan: "This is a not unreasonable step that the senators are taking, Chuck Hagel, in particular. All they're saying is, We do not believe the surge is in the national interests of the United States, and secondly, you cannot prosecute a war without the support of the American people. This is not a cut-off of funds" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 1/17).

Hagel: "The killing is not going to stop because we put 20,000 more troops in Baghdad, put 50,000 more American troops in Baghdad. That's not going to solve the problem. Only a political settlement is going to solve that and that is going to have to come as the result of some political acceptance and accommodation resulting in a political resolution" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 1/17).

Hagel, asked about WH '08: "I've got to make a decision soon and I will make that decision" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/17).

Newt Gingrich: "If we want to win in Iraq, that the president went about halfway there the other night. It's not about the number of troops, it's about the speed and intensity and aggressiveness of decision-making. It's about the relentlessness of being able to support our military. And we don't have it today" ("On the Record," FNC, 1/17).

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), on Bush's plan: "I'm very much opposed to it, and I think we ought to be coming up with a different strategy, one that can make some sense. There are some other alternates to what the president suggested" ("NewsHour," PBS, 1/17).

NAME YOUR PLAN

CNN's Bash: "The pressure, especially on potential Democratic candidates to come out and come out strong on specific positions. And that's exactly what we heard from Senator Clinton in a way that we haven't heard before" ("Situation Room," 1/17).

Bill Press, on HRC's media tour: "I think she is moving toward that announcement by clarifying her position on Iraq" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 1/17).

David Gergen: "She's trying to prevent the president from going through with the surge. And I think it's a very risky move politically" ("AC 360," CNN, 1/17). [EMILY GOODIN]

Barack Obama also put out an Iraq statement today. So which bill is support? The language appears to be similar to the Kennedy or Dodd resolutions. Bottom line: Obama appears to be in a different anti-Iraq surge camp than Hillary Clinton. From the Obama statement:

“Last week, after being told by President Bush that his plan to escalate this war would be well-planned, well-coordinated, and well-supported by the Iraqi government, we find out in this week’s New York Times that none of this is true. Military officials tell us that there is no clear chain of command between Iraqis and U.S. commanders and no real indication that the Iraqis even want such a partnership.

“I cannot in good conscience support this plan. As I first said two months ago, we should not be sending more U.S. troops to Iraq, we should begin redeploying them to let the Iraqis know that we will not be there forever and to pressure the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds to finally reach a political settlement.

“Escalation is a failed policy opposed by generals, Democrats and Republicans, and now even the Iraqis themselves, and the fact that the President is already moving ahead with this idea is a terrible consequence of the decision to give him the broad, open-ended authority to wage this war in 2002.

“It now falls on Congress to find a way to support our troops in the field while still preventing the President from multiplying his previous mistakes. That is why I not only favor capping the number U.S. troops in Iraq, but believe it’s imperative that we begin the phased redeployment I called for two months ago, and intend to introduce legislation that does just that.”

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) has a preference when it comes to the various Iraq bills floating around Congress. She likes the one that has Chuck Hagel's name on it. From an evening release:

“The resolution on Iraq introduced today by Senators Biden, Hagel, Levin and Snowe clearly lays out the bipartisan disapproval of President Bush’s misguided policy of escalation in Iraq. The resolution states that our strategy should be focused on having Iraqi leaders make the political compromises necessary to end the violence in Iraq and endorsing a regional, internationally-sponsored peace and reconciliation process for Iraq. I will co-sponsor the Biden-Hagel-Levin-Snowe resolution and look forward to supporting this legislation when it reaches the Senate floor.”

BTW, there are two WH '08 hopefuls who introduced this Iraq bill -- Joe Biden and Hagel. Is this turning more into Hagel's bill than Biden-Hagel's bill?

Update: The WH chose to release a partial transcript of today's Tony Snow briefing, specifically Snow's response to Clinton's critiques. BTW, ask yourself, why is the WH interested in elevating Clinton's critiques, or in this case, agreements?

SNOW: "Today, Senator Clinton, on national TV, was talking about placing conditions, on Iraqis – as you just mentioned – to place pressure on them. The President made it very clear that the American public has limited patience when it comes to Iraq. And we do expect to see things happen. We understand that despite the conditions of violence, it's important to go ahead and continue on the political track, where it's possible.

"Within the last 24 hours, there has been progress on the hydrocarbon law, and the hydrocarbon law may be one of the most important in terms of building a basis for national agreement because it allows all Iraqis, regardless of whether there is any oil in their province or not, to share in oil and natural gas revenues. Also, there appears to be progress toward reforming the de-Baathification laws, which have denied full participation in the political and economic processes to people who held a Baath Party card simply because that was a condition of peaceful employment, just teachers and civil servants, in a time of Saddam Hussein.

"Also, she had talked about the importance of a regional conference. And we couldn't agree more. She said that the Administration had refused, and point of fact, not only have we been instrumental in [forwarding] the Iraq Compact, which brings together countries throughout the region, just yesterday Secretary Rice was in the region for meetings – the Gulf States plus Egypt and Jordan, the GCC plus two. Among other things, they talked about in a joint statement, that they welcomed a commitment by the United States as stated in President Bush's recent speech to defend the security of the Gulf, the territorial integrity of Iraq, and ensure a successful, fair, and inclusive political process that engages all Iraqi communities and guarantees the stability of the country. We couldn't agree more – it's important to get the region involved. We've been doing it over the past week, not only with regard to Israel and Palestine, but also with Gulf neighbors, being involved in the future of Iraq.

"So it's interesting if you take a look – if you look at some of the critiques, in some cases maybe they don't take into account we actually are doing or what the Iraqis are doing."

Hang with us for a moment.

France's Socialist presidential nominee Segolene Royal is partnered with another French political figure, Francois Hollande, who is also the leader of the Socialist Party. Sound like another household political duo in the spotlight these days? However, Royal and Hollande don't share all of the same policy positions. The two were embroiled in a highly publicized "domestic spat" last week over whether to keep the current conservative government's tax cuts in place, with Royal arguing in support of the tax cuts.

Time's Crumley notes, "Royal has not gotten this far in the testosterone mosh pit of French politics to accept the rebuke, especially not from a guy with whom she has to share a bathroom" (Crumley, Time.com, 1/15).

Say what you will about Bill Clinton, but at least he'll stay cordial....

On the eve of the Republican National Committee's winter meeting in DC, this banner ad appears today on several conservative websites, including National Review Online.

StopMartinez.com , which is a project of English First, poses and answers such questions as

Will a Hispanic RNC General Chairman mean more Hispanics voting Republican? No. See for yourself.

The site says Martinez is wrong on a host of issues that relate to his ethnicity -- Wrong on Official English -- Wrong on Amnesty -- Wrong on Puerto Rico. Also -- you can explore Martinez's connection to Harriet Miers and John McCain.

Sen. Barack Obama's off and exploring a possible WH bid. We'll answer the tough question: Why he'll win, and why he'll lose. We're parsing the candidate today on Hotline TV.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

Hillary Clinton didn't postpone her Iraq presser 1/16 because of Obama's announcement, but he surely influenced HRC's decision to appear on all 3 morning shows today (incl. GMA's interview w/all 16 women senators).

-- Clinton's TV sweep let her tout her Iraq trip, her anti-surge stance and the importance of women in politics. It also showed how Obama could help her: By forcing her to fight for a WH nod some thought she'd locked up, Obama might help HRC shatter the distant/aloof cage that houses her, and hobbled her party's past two WH nominees. One year out, the aura of inevitability never wears well on WH Dems. The party likes choice, or at least the option of choice.

-- But Obama also cuts into an anticipated base of black voters who strongly backed B. Clinton, he highlights her '02 vote on Iraq and he begins with a decisive edge in the charm offensive. Voters are eager to learn more about Obama; HRC, not so much.

-- One thing's clear: As '08 storylines go, Dems so far are trouncing GOPers. Is that just what McCain ordered?

Rich Miller of the Capitol Fax Blog, a Hotline Political Network affiliate, notes that while Obama "certainly voted like a liberal" in the IL state legislature, "he went out of his way to establish friendships and introduce legislation with conservatives and Republicans."

As a result of this, one of Obama’s biggest Illinois cheerleaders is Republican state Sen. Kirk Dillard, who is also chairman of the DuPage County GOP, the state’s most powerful Republican organization. Dillard had this to say to the Naperville Sun: “I believe Obama is one of the smartest people ever to sit in the state Senate."

As we mentioned a few weeks ago, it's extremely difficult to poll likely caucus-goers in Iowa. But more and more polling companies are getting involved, and it will be fascinating to see which ones come closest to measuring a very well-informed -- and very fickle -- caucus electorate.

A Zogby poll out this afternoon is the latest red meat from Iowa, and it's just too good to make you wait until tomorrow's Hotline to read the results. Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) reclaims his lead at the top of the Dem heap with a whopping 27%, while on the GOP side, things remain close between ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain. The results, after the jump.

from today's Obama coverage in The Hotline. But one thing jumped out at me: the initial fundraising bar the campaign is already setting for itself in the 1stQ. From today's Hotline story (must be a subscriber):

An Obama adviser said the exploratory cmte hopes to raise $7M by the end of Mar '07 (Dorning/Parsons, Chicago Tribune, 1/17).

If you'll recall, only John Kerry and John Edwards raised over $7M in the 1stQ of '03. By setting a min. now of $7M, it must mean the Obama folks believe they'll clear that number by a decent amount. How big of a fundraising gap will there be between Clinton and Obama and then everyone else? [CHUCK TODD]

From today's Hotline:

Extreme Mortman has some fun at the expense of the Washington Post corrections department, based on today's edition:

"A Jan. 14 Outlook article by Lanny J. Davis incorrectly said that President Abraham Lincoln was assassinated
less than a month after his second inauguration. The interval was six weeks. Also, the article said that the
Constitution prohibits a ticket with a presidential and vice presidential candidate from the same state. There is
no such prohibition."

The only problem with this correction? Lanny Davis was right, sort of. The 12th Amendment of the Constitution forbids the Electoral College voters from voting for both the president and vice president who are "inhabitants" of their OWN state. It would complicate things in a close presidential election.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

GOPers are finding it's a lot harder to maintain a united front when in the minority.

-- The caucus has split over several early pieces of Dem-sponsored legislation on the minimum wage and the 9/11 Commission's recommendations. GOP members from both moderate and conservative CDs dissented. Meanwhile, Dems voted unanimously on all but one bill.

-- Even on stem cell research, the Dem caucus remained relatively united. Only 16 were in opposition. Dems representing socially conservative CDs -- Reps. Nancy Boyda (D-KS 02), Nick Lampson (D-TX 22), Zack Space (D-OH 18), Chris Carney (D-PA 10) -- all voted with the majority.

-- But of the 16 Dems who opposed the stem cell bill, 4 were freshmen. Could Reps. Joe Donnelly (D-IN 02), Brad Ellsworth (D-IN 08), Heath Shuler (D-NC 11) and Charlie Wilson (D-OH 06) be the most independent Dems in the new Congress? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]