January 18, 2007
Spotlight: Actually, It's You?
Today's Hotline Spotlight:
As he tries to sell his Iraq surge plan, Pres. Bush needs John McCain more than ever, a new Diageo/Hotline poll shows.
-- The plan is widely unpopular, no matter who the author is. Without associating the plan with any one leader, it receives only 34% support. But the survey shows voters are more inclined to back a "McCain strategy" (37% support) on Iraq than a "Bush strategy" (32% support). McCain aligned himself with Bush in '04 to bolster his GOP creds; Now, it appears Bush needs to cozy up to McCain now to help sell the surge -- and keep himself relevant. How far will McCain play this hand, considering the pitfalls of running as the de facto Bush/Cheney candidate in '08?
-- For now, he can afford to take the risk. Despite a big lead for Dems (44%-26%) in a WH '08 generic ballot test, McCain leads all 3 top Dems (Clinton, 48%-39%; Edwards, 45%-35%; and Obama 43%-38%) in head-to-heads. The best Dem scenario? Edwards vs. Giuliani, in which the ex-NC Sen would pick up 41% to the ex-NYC Mayor's 40%. Both HRC and Obama lose to Giuliani.
-- Newly-minted Speaker Nancy Pelosi's fav ratings have doubled since 9/06, from 18% to 36%; her unfavs have only inched up slightly, to 27%. Nearly 1 in 5 GOPers give her thumbs-up. Here's a shocker: More Americans approve of her job performance than approve of Bush's.
-- Also, slightly more voters view Congress favorably (31% this month, up from 27% just after Election Day), for the 1st time since at least last summer.
-- Another pol who's popular these days: Joe Lieberman, who boasts a 45%/26% fav/unfav rating. (Are you listening, Obama?).
-- But bad news for MA Gov. Mitt Romney: Mormonism is only slightly more popular than Islam, and GOPers are 10 points more likely to view Romney's religion unfavorably than Dems. Looks like he has his work cut out for him.
Extra: See the full poll results here:
Conducted 1/11-14; surveyed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 1/18). Party ID breakdown: 40%D, 34%R, 26%I/O. ^ denotes half-sample.
Bush As Pres. All Dem GOP Ind 11/15 10/23 9/26 8/20 7/23 6/25 5/21 Approve 35% 11% 69% 33% 41% 40% 42% 39% 38% 41% 37% Disapprove 62 87 28 60 57 58 56 58 59 56 61GOPers Strongly Approving Of Bush
Now 11/15 10/23 9/26 8/20 7/23 6/25 5/21 2/19 1/19
Strongly approve 36% 38% 42% 40% 40% 38% 36% 33% 46% 47%Bush Handling Iraq Bush Handling Economy
All Dem GOP Ind 11/15 All Dem GOP Ind 11/15
Approve 29% 8% 58% 28% 31% Approve 43% 17% 77% 43% 44%
Disapprove 66 90 39 64 66 Disapprove 52 79 20 47 51Cong. Job Approval
All Dem GOP Ind 11/15 10/23 9/26 8/20 7/23 6/25 5/21 2/19
Approve 31% 39% 26% 29% 27% 27% 28% 31% 31% 30% 29% 30%
Disapprove 49 39 58 51 63 65 65 61 58 62 64 61Dir. Of Your Area^ ------Now------ -----11/15----- -----10/23-----
All Dem GOP Ind All Dem GOP Ind All Dem GOP Ind
Right dir. 56% 61% 59% 43% 54% 57% 56% 53% 50% 40% 67% 47%
Wrong track 32 32 24 43 34 34 32 32 38 50 21 40Dir. Of US^ ------Now------ -----11/15----- -----10/23-----
All Dem GOP Ind All Dem GOP Ind All Dem GOP Ind
Right dir. 26% 12% 40% 36% 32% 24% 46% 34% 29% 7% 62% 20%
Wrong track 61 79 42 53 55 66 37 53 62 86 27 68Most Important Issue Facing Your Most Important Issue Facing US
Area?^ All Dem GOP Ind Today?^ All Dem GOP Ind
Education 10% 14% 7% 10% War in Iraq 44% 57% 37% 38%
Crime/violence 8 8 7 10 Support 9 5 18 2
War in Iraq 7 6 6 7 Oppose 35 52 19 36
Support 3 2 4 1 Terrorism 7 4 10 10
Oppose 4 4 2 6 Health care 6 6 4 4
Economy 6 4 6 9 Economy 5 5 3 6
Unemp/jobs 6 8 7 4 Immigration 4 3 6 5
Taxes 6 4 6 8 Ethics 3 2 5 5
Devel./sprawl 6 5 7 8 Education 3 2 3 2
Immigration 5 3 8 6 Moral values 3 1 7 --Fav/Unfav Now 11/15 10/23 9/26 8/20 7/23 6/25
J. McCain 53%/23% 50%/21% 51%/23% 56%/24% 51%/20% 50%/21% 51%/24%
H. Clinton 49 /43 50 /40 49 /43 50 /44 47 /42 42 /49 49 /44
B. Obama 45 /17 40 / 8 32 /12 na na na na
J. Lieberman 45 /26 na na na na na na
US Congress 42 /39 39 /47 33 /51 38 /53 37 /48 38 /47 40 /48
Pres. Bush 39 /58 41 /57 42 /52 43 /54 39 /55 42 /54 42 /54
N. Pelosi 36 /29 29 /21 19 /24 18 /22 na na na
M. Romney 14 /12 na na na na na naFav/Unfav All Dem GOP Ind
Judaism 58%/11% 58%/10% 62%/16% 52%/ 6%
Catholicism 58 /21 55 /24 61 /24 55 /16
Mormonism 27 /39 27 /38 28 /48 31 /26
Islam 18 /41 27 /27 11 /58 14 /41What Should Be Top Priority For What Should Be Lowest Cong.
Congress To Address?^ Priority In First 100 Hours?^
All Dem GOP Ind All Dem GOP Ind
War in Iraq 34% 46% 28% 25% Corporate
Health care 17 20 16 14 tax cuts 30% 39% 25% 21%
Soc. Sec./ Stem cells 22 17 24 31
Medicare 13 14 14 6 9/11 Commis. 10 10 12 7
Economy/jobs 9 4 12 15 Minimum wage 9 5 15 9
Budget 5 1 9 6 Ethics 5 4 3 11
Ethics 4 1 7 4 Health care 3 3 3 5
Minimum wage 4 3 1 7 Economy/jobs 3 3 2 1N. Pelosi As Speaker Generic WH '08 Ballot
All Dem GOP Ind All Dem GOP Ind 11/15
Approve 36% 57% 18% 27% Dem 44% 84% 7% 30% 40%
Disapprove 23 7 47 20 GOP 26 2 66 13 27WH '08 General Election Matchup
All Dem GOP Ind 11/15 All Dem GOP Ind
McCain 48% 17% 88% 50% 45% Giuliani 48% 16% 87% 51%
Clinton 39 71 9 29 40 Clinton 40 74 8 26
Undec 13 12 3 21 15 Undec 12 10 5 23McCain 43% 19% 77% 38% 41% Giuliani 41% 17% 77% 35%
Obama 38 64 12 31 36 Obama 38 67 10 29
Undec 19 17 11 31 23 Undec 21 16 13 36McCain 45% 19% 82% 39% 49% Edwards 41% 73% 13% 30%
Edwards 35 61 10 24 36 Giuliani 40 9 76 43
Undec 20 20 8 36 15 Undec 19 18 11 27Favor Strategy Of Increasing Troops Favor Bush's Strategy Of Increasing
In Iraq Over Next Few Months? Troops In Iraq Over Next Few
All Dem GOP Ind Months?^ All Dem GOP Ind
Favor 34% 13% 62% 34% Favor 32% 10% 57% 35%
Oppose 59 83 30 58 Oppose 62 86 35 61Favor McCain's Strategy Of Would Country Be Better Off If
Increasing Troops In Iraq Over Few ___ Controlled Cong.?
Months?^ All Dem GOP Ind All Dem GOP Ind
Favor 37% 18% 66% 30% Dems 44% 80% 10% 31%
Oppose 54 77 25 49 GOPers 27 2 64 17
Posted at 03:26 PM
Comments
Post a comment
The Watergate · 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20037
202-739-8400 · fax 202-833-8069
NationalJournal.com is an Atlantic Media publication.
