January 10, 2007
Figuring Out Fairfax
2006 Senate race in Fairfax County. District 34 is outlined.
Anyone tracking the shifting political landscape in Northern Virginia ought to pay attention to a certain state Senate race this year. The District 34 race in central Fairfax County will be a good test of whether moderate Republicans can still succeed in an area where Democrats have rolled in recent elections.
State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R), a well-known and well-financed moderate and wife of Rep. Tom Davis (R), is facing what is likely to be a stiff challenge from former Del. Chap Petersen (D) and a Virginia Democratic Party that is convinced this district has gone blue.
[PATRICK OTTENHOFF]
The 34th, sweeping from Fairfax City north through Oakton and up to Colvin Run, south down Route 7 and then along the Beltway, west out Braddock Road and then south to Lake Braddock, was cut by and for the GOP after the 2001 re-districting. Devolites Davis was elected here in 2003 with 53 percent and also won terms for the House in 1997, 1999, 2001.
But in 2004, John Kerry took the district by about the same margin he took the county: 52 percent. And in 2005, Tim Kaine (D) pummeled Jerry Kilgore (R) by about 20 points. A year later, Jim Webb (D) soundly beat George Allen (R) by double-digits. Devolites Davis is the only Republican in the state Senate to represent a district that voted for Kerry, Kaine, LG nominee Leslie Byrne (D), AG nominee Creigh Deeds (D), Webb and “no” on the gay-marriage amendment.
Devolites Davis argues that the 34th is not a bellwether race, and contends that Republicans lost her district in recent elections for unique reasons. She says Kilgore’s campaign “was not well run” and that he “could not connect” with NoVa voters, and that Allen “self-imploded” and was “vilified by the press.” Another moderate NoVA GOP source argues that it just takes the right kind of GOPer to win in NoVA and that the Davis camp has what it takes.
Petersen, on the other hand, contends that the 34th District race is in fact a bellwether, and that recent elections are part of an unmitigated trend. He credits Democrats’ recent success in NoVA to changing demographics, a diversifying job base and the fact that the party representing NoVA is historically the opposite party of the one controlling Richmond.
Both candidates are also arguing for a NoVA-centric transportation plan, which will be the dominant issue this cycle. Both are calling for increased revenue and more local control over growth and transportation decisions. Some GOP House delegates will face a backlash over the legislature’s stalled transportation package, but Devolites Davis and other GOP senators have publicly spoken out against the speaker’s plan.
Devolites Davis is also married to one of the Washington region’s favorite politicians in Tom Davis, but bristles as the notion that she would be defined by him. “I’ve done quite well for myself before being Tom’s wife,” she says. “I’ve gotten elected four times in my own right.” But she concedes that any VA GOPer would consider having Davis as an “ally” as an asset.
She has already built a healthy war chest of $544K CoH, and says that when the legislature gets out of session of 2/24 she’ll get back to work of trying to hit her goal of $1M. Petersen says he just wants to raise half of what she can, adding, “My wife is not a congressman.” But Petersen’s family is also well known and owns a prominent house in downtown Fairfax City on Route 123.
The test for Petersen will be whether he can rally the troops beyond his home base of Fairfax City, raise enough money to get his message out and convert the thousands of Davis-Webb voters in the 34th. If he can, Democrats are likely to solidify their hold on Fairfax County for at least a generation.
As for Devolites Davis, she’ll have to put that war chest to good use, convince the 34th that she has been going to bat for their transportation concerns in Richmond and accentuate her ties to Fairfax County’s favorite Republican, Congressman Davis. If she can, Devolites Davis might prove that it’s not the party, it’s the candidate.
Posted at 03:30 PM
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