January 11, 2007
HRH: Southern Comfort?
Could the '06 House results foreshadow a comeback for Dems in the South?
Dems won a majority of the vote in traditionally GOP strongholds. In NC, they won 52% of the Congressional vote, their first majority this decade. In TN, Dems won 51% for the first time since '00.
More notably, Dems neared parity with the GOP in TX despite Tom DeLay's re-redistricting. The GOP share of the vote fell from 59% to 54%. If Hispanic voters bail on the GOP because of their hawkish proposals on border security, the state could be worth watching on the nat'l level.
Dems have focused much of their attention on the Southwest, where the opportunities seem immediate. But the South comprises 5 of the 10 fastest-growing states while the Dem base of the Northeast and Midwest is steadily losing population.
The playing field can often change in unexpected ways. Twelve years ago, few thought CO or AZ would be battlegrounds. Will we be saying the same thing about, say, VA and NC soon? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]
Posted at 11:22 AM
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