Just How Bad Was It For The GOP In 2006? Very.

A Hotline Analysis Of All U.S. House Elections In '06

We all know '06 was bad for the GOP. But the breadth of the Dem victory shows up starkly in a new Hotline analysis of the cumulative nat'l vote for House candidates by state editor Quinn McCord.

Dems won 54.1% of the two-party vote in '06, much better than the GOP's 52.5% win in '02. That fueled Dem advantages in 27 states last year, compared to only 19 in '02. Most importantly, Dems carried the net vote in several swing states (OH, PA, MI, NV, NH), some of which they hadn't carried in more than a decade. Even in the reddest states, GOPers struggled to win more than 55% last year. They lost TN and NC outright. Also, Dems let only 10 GOPers go unchallenged in '06, compared to 45 uncontested Dem seats.

Heading into '08, this is good news for a party whose WH nominee hasn't carried a majority of the popular vote since '76. In broad (and surprising) regions, vast numbers of Americans pulled the Dem lever last year. Was '06 a blip of good Dem news? Or the start of a long-term improvement in the brand name "Democrat"?

Here's the nat'l summary of two-party House results for the past four cycles; Leading totals are bolded:

         GOP U.S. House Votes      Dem U.S. House Votes
2000     47,238,467 (50.3%)        46,701,783 (49.7%)
2002     37,428,113 (52.5%)        33,905,437 (47.5%)
2004     56,112,869 (51.4%)        53,128,318 (48.6%)
2006     35,904,068 (45.9%)        42,291,298 (54.1%)

4-yr
Total   176,683,517 (50.1%)       176,026,836 (49.9%)

One way to empirically measure voters' partisan preferences on Election Day is by aggregating the votes of all U.S. House candidates in the country to determine the cumulative GOP vs. the cumulative Dem vote in a given cycle.

The following figures are derived from election results taken directly from the appropriate Sec/State Web sites. Write-in votes were not counted, nor were any votes given to 3rd party/indie candidates. Exceptions were made for Shelley Sekula-Gibbs' (R-TX) '06 write-in bid and past indie candidacies of Virgil Goode (VA) and Bernie Sanders (VT), which were tabulated as GOP and Dem respectively. In states with fusion tickets (e.g. NY and SC) all votes for GOP and Dem nominees are counted, regardless of the ballot line on which they were originally cast.

Obviously, if a party fielded no candidate in a given district in a given year, that can skew the cumulative totals in that state to a certain extent (although it might be offset by other unopposed candidates elsewhere in the state.) If a candidate in FL or LA is completely unopposed, his/her name does not even appear on the ballot, further diminishing the overall vote totals in those states. In AR, voters must simultaneously vote (or not vote) for ALL unopposed candidates on their ballots, however that figure was not available for AR-04 in 2004.

Here's the nat'l summary of two-party House results for the past four cycles; Leading totals are bolded:

         GOP U.S. House Votes      Dem U.S. House Votes
2000     47,238,467 (50.3%)        46,701,783 (49.7%)
2002     37,428,113 (52.5%)        33,905,437 (47.5%)
2004     56,112,869 (51.4%)        53,128,318 (48.6%)
2006     35,904,068 (45.9%)        42,291,298 (54.1%)

4-yr
Total   176,683,517 (50.1%)       176,026,836 (49.9%)

     # Of States Won (w. flips)                    Seats Uncontested
GOPers            Dems                            By GOPers    By Dems
 29                21                      2000       32          31
 31 (+MS, MO, PA)  19 (+AR)                2002       36          44
 30 (+MI)          20 (+CO, SD)            2004       29          36
 23                27 (+MI, NV, NH,        2006       45          10
                       NC, OH, PA, TN)

Just How Bad A Year Was It For The GOP?

As you can see from the above, Dems won a higher percentage of the cumulative House vote in '06 than GOPers had won in '00, '02, or '04. Indeed, the overall Dem margin of votes in '06 was ALMOST sufficient to counter the net GOP victories in '00, '02, and '04 combined. Check out the 4-year rolling vote total: 50.1% to 49.9%. Can it get any closer? That should remind folks of just how evenly divided this country is.

Recruiting DOES Matter

Because Dems fielded more candidates in '06 than in '02 (and GOPers fewer), and since voters leaned more Dem in '06 anyway, several states saw significant drops in the net GOP vote from '02 to '06.

There were 16 states where the GOP share of the House vote fell by over 10 points from '02 to '06: AK (81.2% to 58.6%), CO (56.1% to 42.8%), DE (73.0% to 59.4%), KS (67.3% to 55.4%), KY (66.4% to 50.4%), MD (45.4% to 33.2%), NE (89.2% to 56.0%), NV (63.8% to 47.5%), NH (59.2% to 47.5%), NY (47.9% to 32.4%), ND (47.6% to 34.3%), PA (58.0% to 43.7%), RI (30.2% to 13.6%), SD (54.0% to 29.8%), VA (69.6% to 56.4%), WY (62.6% to 50.3%)

In Search Of Long-Term Trends

From '04 to '06, Dems increased their share of the vote in 47 of 50 states. The GOP only improved its performance in LA (60.6% to 66.2%), VT (26.5% to 45.6%), and WI (50.2% to 50.9%). The VT results can be attributed to Sanders leaving his House seat, and Dems would have won the net WI vote if they'd fielded a challenger to Rep. Tom Petri (R-WI). The LA results, however, should be worrisome for Dems, where they barely won a third of the vote despite contesting 6 of 7 seats, including multiple candidates in LA-02.
26 states saw Dems increase their share of the vote from '02 to '04 AND from '04 to '06. (There were no such states for the GOP): AK, CA, CO, CT, DE, IL, KS, KY, ME, MD, MN, MT, NE, NV, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH, PA, RI, SD, UT, VA, WA, WY.
4 states saw Dems increase their share of the vote in each of the past THREE consecutive cycles: CO, NC, SD, WY. While SD and WY probably won't be voting Dem at the presidential level anytime soon, GOPers should be concerned about the long-term trends in NC and CO.

Swing States: An Early Warning For The GOP?

Dems won the net House vote in several states where they had not done so since the '90s (if even then): NV, NH, NC, OH, TN. Dems also won the net vote in PA and MI for the first time since '00 and '02, respectively.
In several swing states, GOPers already weren't winning the net House vote, and dropped further from '04 to '06 (below 45%): AR, CO, MN, NM.
Nevertheless, GOPers still outpolled Dems in a number of swing states, including those in which they were losing 2 seats (AZ, FL, IA), one seat (WI) or no seats (MO, VA). The GOP even managed to cling to a lead of 50.6% in IN, despite dropping from a 7-2 lead in the delegation to a 5-4 Dem lead.
MI and OH continue to be gerrymandering success stories for the GOP. In MI they maintained their 9-6 lead in the delegation despite winning only 45.8% of the net House vote, while in OH, GOPers lost only one seat, leaving them an 11-7 lead with only 47.3% of the vote. PA imploded, however. While the GOP won 58% of the PA vote in '02 and won 12 of 19 seats (Dems didn't even contest 5 CDs that year), that fell to 43.7% of the vote and only 8 GOP seats in '06.

A Word About Unopposed Seats

GOPers failed to run any candidates whatsoever in 45 seats in '06 (e.g. only 3 of MA's 10 Dem Reps were opposed) while Dems punted in only 10 districts. That could well be a record high for the GOP and a record low for Dems, at least in recent memory. It's true that few, if any, of these seats would have been competitive anyway, but with 35 more nominees than the GOP, the Dems were able to run up their cumulative totals in several states. Perhaps more importantly, it also says something about the relative enthusiasm behind each party's drive to win the House in the last cycle, especially the Dems.

Posted at 01:10 PM

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January 19, 2007

Just How Bad Was It For The GOP In 2006? Very.

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