January 05, 2007
The Daily Troika: Fear McCain
Richard Quinn, John McCain's top guy in South Carolina, might have written a better headline: "Big Money Backs McCain In South Carolina," but we're pretty sure he's pleased with the story splashed across the front page of The State today.
By locking up virtually every major Bush '00/04 Palmetto state donor, McCain's political operation has more in mind than simply depriving potential opponents of campaign cash.
McCain's advisers want to create an aura of inevitability around their candidate. That is, with every reckoned-with force in the party behind a McCain tidal wave, how could he NOT with the nomination? Creating that impression is especially important for a frontrunner as potentially vulnerable as McCain certainly is.
The gilded ranks of the party are comfortable enough with him, to which the State article testifies. But it's the second tier of Republican Party elites in the states -- the field operatives who served George W. Bush in '00, county party chairs, local ideological activists -- the folks who have invested, at one point in time, in hating John McCain -- who still need convincing.
A basic principle of psychology is at work: if you're a Republican skeptical of McCain and nearly every Republican you admire jumps into his juggernaut, you'll either surrender your doubts or, at the very least, be wary of publicly endorsing another candidate.
You won't get a McCain aide to say this, but Team McCain wants Republicans who haven't endorsed McCain to fear the consequences of endorsing someone else. If McCain is the nominee, his political team -- John Weaver, Mike Dennehy, Richard Quinn -- will essentially run the Republican Party and be in a position to punish or freeze out apostates. In at least three states including South Carolina, McCain's political operation has injected itself in state chairman's races.
(Not for nothing, the State article this morning features a quote form SC GOP chairman Katon Dawson, who is not necessarily McCain's biggest private booster, acknowleding that McCain's '08 SC finance team comprises "the A list.")
A side note: the need to create a colossus is why McCain intends to run both a Big Media and a Niche Media campaign -- the more press he gets from the establishment, the more pre-ordained his nomination seems to the gatekeepers. With microtargeting expert Terry Nelson at the helm of his campaign, we'd bet that every Republican voter in... the country, basically, will be modeled and sent tailored appeals.
Squibs:
Posted at 09:12 AM
Comments
With microtargeting expert Terry Nelson at the helm of his campaign...
I'm sorry, that modifier is incorrect. Nelson is well-known for breaking, not just bending, the law:
Nelson was an unindicted co-conspirator in the TRMPAC scandal as a key point of contact between Tom Delay and the RNC in 2002.
http://www.talkaboutgovernment.com/group/alt.politics.usa/messages/428932.html
He was James Tobin's boss during the 2002 New Hampshire phone-jamming scandal, for which Tobin was convicted.
He also worked at the head of opposition research for the NRCC this cycle, where robocalls from Republicans pretending to be Democrats were the norm all over the country.
Nelson also produced the racist bimbo ad against Harold Ford.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/011441.php
How radioactive is Terry Nelson? So much so that even Wal-Mart dropped him as a consultant after the Ford "bimbo" ad aired.
That's the kind of "straight talk" we can expect from McCain's campaign. There won't be any aura of inevitability around McCain, as you call it. Just a few dead bodies by the roadside.
Corinne | 01.05.07 10:25 AM
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McCain's clearly the next in line, and the Republicans, especially in South Carolina are fiercely loyal to the next in line guy (witness Dole in '96). See why Al Gore's going to win the Dem nomination at www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com
MinorRipper | 01.05.07 12:32 PM
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