February 28, 2007

McCain's In, But Does He Float?

According to the CBS "Evening News," John McCain announced his candidacy during his appearance with David Letterman. From the "Evening News" broadcast:

At 6:49pm (bit late in the broadcast),

Katie Couric: "Well we've been expecting it for some time, but today Sen. John McCain made it official."

Clip:
McCain: "I am announcing that I will be a candidate for president of the United States."
Letterman: "Oh!"

Back to Katie:
Couric: "The Arizona Republican made the announcement during the taping of tonight's 'Late Show with David Letterman.' This will be his second run for the White House. He lost the Republican nomination to George W. Bush in 2000."

Couric then transitioned to the McCain-Kennedy "comprehensive new immigration bill."

While McCain appearing on an info-tainment show is not news, his choice of announcing on Letterman is intriguing for two reasons. 1) Letterman is considered a bit more "blue state" than his counterpart Jay Leno. 2) Nothing says "I'm not old" than announcing on one of the late night shows.

One key question: Does this mean McCain's "why I am running for president" announcement is going to come sooner (i.e. before the end of the 1st fundraising quarter) or later?

Update: AP's Sidoti has the Letterman announcement update and also reports that McCain's formal announcement (i.e. the "why I'm running" speech) will come in early April -- after the 1st quarter fundraising. Does this mean McCain's camp believes his 2ndQ fundraising will be stronger than his 1stQ?

Posted 02.28.07 07:02 PM | Comments (0)

This Is Funny

Normally, we don't take hand-outs, but we did find this video compilation of MSNBC's Chris Matthews rather amusing.

Check out the exchange with Clinton aide Ann Lewis.

Posted 02.28.07 04:12 PM | Comments (0)

Today On Hotline TV: Sending Out An SOS?

Can social conservatives find someone -- anyone -- to harvest from the '08 field? Watch and learn...

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 02.28.07 04:00 PM | Comments (1)

A Bad Sign For Clinton, Sort Of

Terry McAuliffe is on the verge of losing his voice.

The prodigal son of Syracuse remains on his book tour -- check out the stellar coverage here -- and his colleagues really want him to preserve his best public asset -- that famous, booming, confident voice that has cajoled literally hundreds of millions of dollars out of the deep, hand-tailored pockets of major Democratic donors. (Listen to a poor -- but proud -- McAuliffe rasp into the microphone.)

After all, Sen. Clinton needs a big fundraising quarter.

In Syracuse, one audience member was professionally concerned about the condition of Mac's throat. "I'm a throat doctor and I want to perscribe something to you," this person said.

So - back in Washington -- one of McAuliffe's aides gave him some advice: don't yell so much. But that didn't stop McAuliffe from screaming his booming hellos. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.28.07 03:45 PM | Comments (0)

Giuliani's Senior Finance Adviser

A top Bush finance hand has joined ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuiani's exploratory committee.

Willie Gaynor, most recently the finance director for Bush's '04 inaugural, will serve as senior finance adviser, helping the campaign's professional fundraising staff maintain and develop relationships with major donors.

In '03-04, Gaynor served under Mercer Reynolds as the Western Regional Finance Dir. for the Bush-Cheney campaign. He's a disciple of Bush's original finance chair, ex-Commerce sec. Don Evans and has good contacts in the business world. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.28.07 03:08 PM | Comments (3)

Stop!!! It's NOT "So Early"!!!!

"It's just so early" has become a pretty common refrain in response to the fast start of the 2008 presidential campaign.

But it's really not that early at all. The starting line moved up because the finish line moved first; the front-loaded primary calendar that has most states voting on or before Feb. 5, 2008, is forcing the campaign to switch into gear now.

This cycle is different. It has two distinct "elections," and candidates who recognize that and stop worrying about the general might benefit more than they realize.

The '08 presidential race should be viewed as two distinct campaigns. Previous primary campaigns have bled seamlessly into the general, which in turn has made the election cycle feel never-ending. For instance, the 2004 campaign, which started full-bore in March 2003, was a solid 20-month continuous campaign because it was all about the general election. The Democratic primary focused on Bush and beating Bush, so the looming general election shone brightly on the party. [CHUCK TODD]

Continue reading On The Trail

Posted 02.28.07 03:00 PM | Comments (1)

Overlooked: Time Well Spent?

From today's Hotline:

Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN) was recently criticized for missing votes while playing at the Bob Hope Classic. But it looks like he could use a bit more practice, since he apparently plays with a 12 handicap.

Posted 02.28.07 12:45 PM | Comments (1)

Why James Carville Thinks Gore Will Run

This isn't new news, despite Newsmax.com's breathless breaking news alert.

For months, Clinton strategist James Carville has been telling anyone who would listen that he's convinced ex-VP Al Gore will run, Gore's deflections to the contrary.

Here's how we're translating Mr. Carville:

He might think Gore will actually run.

Also, the more Dems pay attention to Al Gore, the less they'll pay attention to Sen. Barack Obama.

The more there's talk of a Gore run, the more impetus there is for a Draft Gore movement, the more pressure Gore feels compelled to run, the more excited some Democrats become, about a Gore run, etc, the more they compare Gore and his resume to the rest of the field...

Do Sen. Clinton's strategists believe that Gore will actually run? Probably not -- he'd be hard to beat, as they'll acknowledge. But the more the Democratic activist base thinks about Gore, the more they'll compare the ideal -- Mr. Gore -- with the hope -- Mr. Obama, and presumably, they'll find Obama lacking in substance.

Obama's strategists dispute the entire premise of this calculation. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.28.07 12:22 PM | Comments (6)

Don't Read Too Much Into That New Post-ABC Poll

Maybe the Post was seeking an antidote to their speculative stories about black voters, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Hence:

Black Voters Shift Support: Sen. Obama picks up support among black voters over Sen. Clinton, poll shows.

157 of the 1000+ surveyed were African American, and the margin of error for those results is about +/- 8 percentage points. (The Post article just says it's "higher for the subsamples.")

As MysteryPollster will doubtless remind you: one poll does not a trend make, and forming holistic conclusions off sub-samples is fairly silly. Watch for trends; watch for a national poll of African Americans only; watch to see whether Clinton's campaign responds or reacts. If they don't, it's safe to say that they're not panicked by the opinions of 157 people in a telephone survey.

Note that the Post's partner -- ABC News -- didn't even mention the shift in its write up.notion.

Posted 02.28.07 11:31 AM | Comments (10)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Georgia Political Digest-- Guiliani Leads GOP For 2008 Clinton and Obama Tops For Democrats -- an exclusive poll for the Digest.

AZ Political News-- Bill Would Protect Right To Keep Weapons During An Emergency

Capitol Fax -- Morning Shorts

Iowa Politics-- Legislature Will Focus On Budget This Week

JohnCombest.com -- AP: Kerry Spars With Ambassador Nominee Over Contributions

NhNewslinks.com -- Bill Seeks To Deter Teen Drinking, Opponents Warn Of Unfair Penalties

Quorum Report -- 2003 Chip Limits Could Be Removed

Sayfie's Review -- Bill Would Punish Radar Detector Owners

WisPolitics.com-- Doyle Back Gay Benefits

Posted 02.28.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

More Fred Thompson Buzz

He now graces the cover of the American Spectator's website. (Run, Fred, Run! screams the Spec's Washington Prowler).

We're skeptical.

But -- it doesn't seem to us like Thompson's circle of advisers (or Thompson himself) are eager to bat down these rumors.

Posted 02.28.07 10:34 AM | Comments (78)

The Daily Zeitgeist

Drudge: ‘R E B O U N D ? ”

Buzz Story One: McCain, Kennedy Try Again on Illegal Immigration (Boston Globe)

Buzz Story Two: Black Voters Shift Support; Obama Picks Up, Clinton Drops. (Washington Post)

Memeorandum: U.S. Will Join Talks With Iran And Syria

Editor’s Choice: Some GOPers are pushing Mike Huckabee to drop his "long-shot" WH bid and challenge Sen. Mark Pryor (D) for AR SEN (The Hill).

The Note:'s Insight of the Morning: "Everywhere one looks, the day is filled with Democratic disarray on Iraq."

The Note:'s Insufferable Aside Of The Morning: "Many political reporters are frustrated sports writers and rock critics — which is why the most over-used and annoying political cliché of the season is to describe a hot candidate as "like a rock star."

You might have missed: A new Philadelphia Daily News/Keystone poll of PA shows Giuliani defeating HRC 53-37% and Obama 53-32%. McCain also beats HRC 45-41% and Obama 43%-37% (release) Also, Strategic Vision (R) polls show HRC beating Obama 36%-21% among WI Dems, and 28%-25% among GA Dems. Meanwhile, Giuliani beats McCain 26%-22% among WI GOPers, and 28%21% among GA GOPers (releases).

Thought of the day: Conan O'Brien, on the Oscar ratings improving among 18-34 year-olds: "That statistic is misleading because viewers who were 18 at the beginning of the show were over 50 when it ended" ("Late Night").

Posted 02.28.07 09:54 AM | Comments (0)

February 27, 2007

Today on Hotline TV: Gore Left His Carbon Footprint

... all over the red carpet. Enjoy the show!

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 02.27.07 07:50 PM | Comments (1)

Just asking...

What happens to the presidential race if there's a recession?

Posted 02.27.07 03:42 PM | Comments (11)

Do Voters Know How Old (Or Young) Obama Is?

In addition to what was highlighted in today's "Spotlight", the new Diageo/Hotline poll shows Pres. Bush's job approval rating at 36% among all RVs and 76% among GOPers. Moreover, Bush's handling of the war in Iraq has a 30% approval rating -- 1% higher than what he received 1/14.

Meanwhile, cong. job approval hasn't seen a significant change since the Dem takeover. 30% of voters approve in comparison to the 27% that did 11/15.

Iraq continues to dominate the dialogue, with 38% considering the war as the most important issue facing the country today. Of that %, 6% support the war and 32% oppose it.

As for a generic general WH '08 ballot, 46% of voters would select a Dem candidate. 28% would choose a GOPer. In an open-ended question asking who you'd most like to see elected pres. in '08, Hillary Clinton received 18%. Barack Obama followed with 12%. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain had 8% and 6%, respectively.

When asked to select which category best describes a candidate's age, a majority of voters chose correctly for HRC, John Edwards and Giuliani. However, 41% believe McCain is 55-64. The senator is currently 71 years of age. Obama, 45, was also mistaken by 43% for being in the 35-44 range.

Only about 20% of all voters are aware of the top tier '08ers' religion. 22% correctly labeled Giuliani as Catholic and 20% correctly labeled Romney as Mormon. However, 6% incorrectly think Obama is Muslim [KATHERINE LEHR].

Posted 02.27.07 03:00 PM | Comments (20)

Spotlight: Moving Right Along

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

Mitt Romney is taking hits for lurching to the right, but a new Diageo/Hotline poll shows his WH '08 strategy may be working.

-- Romney's name I.D. among GOPers remains less than 1/2 that of McCain or Giuliani, according to the survey, but comparable numbers of GOP voters view him as "conservative." The ex-MA gov also has the lowest "liberal" rating of the three.

-- Of course, the Right's still not sold on their top tier. Less than 1/4 of GOPers describe any of them as conservative. Other unique hurdles each one faces: More than half of GOPers say Giuliani's a moderate, but only 1/3 even know he's pro-choice ... yet. Also just 26% of GOP voters know Romney's a Mormon. And slightly more than half of all voters (60% of GOPers) think McCain is 64 or younger; He'd be 72 at his 1/09 swearing-in.

-- Meanwhile, Dems maintain a key edge in voter excitement, reflected in an open-ended question about preferred '08ers. Clinton alone pulls the same support as all 3 top GOPers combined (and Obama is the only other candidate in double-digits). Is that connected to the relatively small number of GOPers who think Giuliani/McCain/Romney are "conservative?"

Posted 02.27.07 02:03 PM | Comments (0)

Come On, All The Cool Kids Are Weighing In

Early polling of the '08 WH field indicates young adults still lean Dem, though "not by as large a margin" as they did in '06, according to a Young Voter Strategies analysis of recent Pew, Quinnipiac, RT Strategies and Lake-Tarrance/YVS polls.

Respondents ages 18-29 agree with all ages on the frontrunners -- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards for the Dems; and Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney in the GOP.

But in general election match-ups, younger voters show their color. Giuliani beats HRC, Obama and Edwards among all respondents, but loses to all three Dems among those ages 18-29. Young respondents also prefer all three Dem frontrunners to McCain, who beats HRC and Edwards and ties with Obama among all ages.

Obama "draws stronger support from young adults than from any other age group" among Dems by 11 points, while young adults appear "slightly more supportive" of McCain than GOPers at large.

We get Obama, but is McCainSpace really that popular?

Posted 02.27.07 01:49 PM | Comments (0)

Overlooked: Grammy Is A Popular Political Award

From today's Hotline:

Several readers wrote in to comment on the "Hollywood Hardware Primary." Ex-Pres. Clinton has won two Grammys -- one for Best Spoken Word for his bio and one for Best Spoken Word on an Album for Children. Late Rep. Helen Gahagan (D-CA) has a star on the walk of fame. Late Sen. George Murphy (R-CA) received a special Oscar "for interpreting the motion-picture industry correctly to the country at large" in '50. And Ronald Reagan has a Golden Globe. And yes, we know Al Gore did not technically "win" an Oscar. But he certainly accepted one...

Posted 02.27.07 12:25 PM | Comments (0)

The Daily Zeitgeist

Drudge: ‘Cheney: I Heard A Boom” Also: "FLASH: More than quarter of U.S. women ages 14-59 infected with sexually transmitted human papillomavirus... Developing... "

The Note:'s Insight of the Morning: "Note question: What would happen if a less — or more — "seasoned" candidate said something like this?" -- they're responding to Sen. John Edwards's insinuation that he'd be open to negotiate a non-aggression treaty with Iran.

Buzz Story One: Clintons' Charity Not Listed On Senate Disclosure Forms (Post)

Buzz Story Two:
Romney Campaign Internal Memo (Boston Globe)

Memeorandum: Al Gore’s Personal Energy Use Is His Own “Inconvenient Truth”

Editor’s Choice: Yepsen: Vilsack's departure could signal end for others (Des Moines Register)

Thought of the day: Stephen Colbert, on Oscar celebs using hybrid limos: "Any lowering of emissions they achieved with the limos was canceled out by the amount of smoke they blew up Al Gore's ass" ("Colbert Report").

Posted 02.27.07 11:47 AM | Comments (2)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- House Oks Bill Backed By Cox Cable

Capitol Fax -- Local Elections Roundup

Georgia Political Digest-- House To Consider Return Of 'Payday Lending'

Iowa Politics-- Legislature Will Focus On Budget This Week

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Ag Director Quits Amid Allegations

NhNewslinks.com -- Labor Activists Working To Change Federal Labor Law

Quorum Report -- For The Record, Real Voting Will Continue In Secret

Sayfie's Review -- Crist Tries To Sell Congress On Federal Catastrophe Fund

WisPolitics.com-- AirTran: Midwest Merger Would Add 1,100 State Jobs, $1 Billion To Local Economy

Posted 02.27.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

The Hotline / Diageo Poll: A Preview

28 percent of those surveyed in the latest Hotline/Diageo poll correctly identified ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani as pro-choice -- that includes 33 percent of Republicans.

The rest either believed he is pro-life, or they didn't know.

That sounds like the smoking gun, right?

But only 11 percent of those we surveyed incorrectly stated that Sen. John McCain is pro-choice, indicating an enhanced level of knowledge about Giuliani's social positions among primary voters.

45 percent of those we surveyed believe that Sen. Hillary Clinton is pro-choice.

Posted 02.27.07 09:45 AM | Comments (9)

Alex Castellanos's Cheap Shot

At the end of the Boston Globe article about an internal Mitt Romney strategy memo written by strategist Alex Castellanos.

Like every Republican in the race, Romney faces the delicate task of how to talk about President Bush, whom the country gives low job-approval ratings . But the plan lists two ways Romney can set himself apart from Bush. The first says, simply, "Intelligence."

Castellanos, of course, is a veteran of both Bush campaigns and has remained an informal adviser to the White House.

Posted 02.27.07 09:10 AM | Comments (4)

The Washington Post's Cheap Shot

Not taking anything away from John Solomon and Matthew Mosk's article -- clearly, Sen. Clinton made a mistake -- but was this really necessary?

Private family foundations vary in amounts they give away each year. The Clintons have given away a quarter of their money. The family foundation of record producer David Geffen, by comparison, has been giving away most of what it takes in -- roughly $1 million a year -- leaving it with a balance of $400,000 at the end of 2005.

Posted 02.27.07 09:07 AM | Comments (1)

Hotline After Dark -- The Excuse To Talk Gore

In the aftermath of Al Gore's Oscar, pundits tried to determine if they had a winner:

Politico's Allen: "If Senator Clinton and Senator Obama eat each other up, if for some reason there's a vacancy, a vacuum, an opening when it comes to the fall, voters are sick of the fantastic choices that they have on either side, I can definitely imagine the vice president making this move" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 2/26).

Pat Buchanan: "Obama has got to fade for Gore to move. He's got to be knocked down. And if he is knocked down, Gore should drive right in there, because then I think he could win" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 2/26).

Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts: "I think there's two people ... that you ought to watch over the next two or three months, Newt Gingrich on the Republican side, Al Gore on the Democrat side. Now, you can't run a covert campaign. So, you need to be active in some way. We don't see any signs of Al Gore being active. However, I think the key is, if somebody stumbles on the Democrat side ... I think he may get in. I think it's a real possibility. The same thing -- John McCain on the Republican side, you see John stumbles, I think Newt probably takes a serious look at it" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/26).

MSNBC's Carlson: "In some sense, the presidency almost seems too small for Al Gore at this point" ("Tucker," 2/26).

THE '08ers GET THEIR TV TIME IN

Bill Richardson played "Hardball" last night, where most of the discussion focused on the war on terror:

Asked if he likes "to go head-to-head with the tough guys," Richardson: "Yes, I do. And President Clinton used to send me to talk to Sudan, North Korea. We talked to Cuba. And we had success" (MSNBC, 2/26).

Ron Paul was on "Lou Dobbs Tonight":

On his vote against the war in Iraq: "I'm a stickler for the Constitution. I was annoyed because they wouldn't declare war. They thought it was important to go to war. The people's representatives should declare war, and they should fight it and get it over with and win. So I didn't like the way they went, and I didn't think we were ever threatened by Iraq" (CNN, 2/26).

GOTTA HAVE FAITH

Laura Bush was on "LKL."

Asked if Romney's faith should be an issue: "I don't think so. I mean I think that he is a very outstanding and a wonderful man with great character and a lot of great credentials. And so I think people's faith in the United States is their, certainly, you know, what it is. Each person has the right to choose whatever faith they want and it's a very important part of our country."

ONE JUROR OUT BUT LIBBY CASE GOES FORWARD

FNC's Angle: "The jury went right back to work in the Scooter Libby trial, after losing one of its members. The judge told both sides that one juror acknowledged that she might have been tainted over the weekend, leading some to conclude it was another juror who first raised the matter" ("Special Report," 2/26).

MSNBC's Shuster: "They can render a verdict with just 11. They just cannot go down to 10. And the fear that everybody has now is that as this goes along, if the jury is going to continue deliberating for several more days before reaching their verdict, if they were to lose another juror, then they would have to go back to one of the two alternates who have been sent home and simply been instructed, don't watch any sort of media coverage" ("Hardball," 2/26).

CNN's Todd: "It's unclear what kind of information the juror, who's now an arts researcher, was exposed to, but she has gone her own way before in this case" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/26).[EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 02.27.07 07:15 AM | Comments (0)

February 26, 2007

Happy Jennifer Hudson Day!

Gov. Rod Blagojevich loves his proclamating. Blagojevich, who dedicated an entire week to the Chicago Bears after they lost the Super Bowl, has proclaimed 2/26 “Jennifer Hudson Day” in IL “in recognition of the Chicago native’s Oscar win for Best Actress in a Supporting Role” in “Dreamgirls.”

Blagojevich recognizes Hudson for her childhood in Chicago, where she displayed “her music and theatrical skills... in dozens of talent shows and musical productions.” In the 358-word proclamation, Blagojevich cites Hudson’s start “as a vocalist on the Disney Wonder Cruise Ship” and her “first big break” on “American Idol,” and her 2/25 Oscar win as justification for her “day.”

“WHEREAS, the State of Illinois is proud of its native daughter Jennifer Hudson, who went from Chicago kid, to American Idol contender, to Oscar winner. This award marks only the beginning of what promises to be a truly stellar career for this bright young star…” reads the proclamation.

[Continue reading “Happy Jennifer Hudson Day!”]

The text of the proclamation:

WHEREAS, Jennifer Kate Hudson was born on Chicago’s South Side on

September 12, 1981, and graduated from Dunbar Vocational

Career Academy in 1999; and

WHEREAS, displaying her music and theatrical skills all throughout her adolescent years in dozens of talent shows and musical productions, Jennifer landed her first professional role in a local production of “Big River,” a stage adaptation of Mark Twain’s “The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn;” and

WHEREAS, in 2002, Jennifer began to catch the eyes and ears of the world, taking a job entertaining thousands of vacationers from all across the globe as a vocalist on the Disney Wonder Cruise Ship; and

WHEREAS, Jennifer received her first big break in 2004, being selected as a contestant on the third season of the popular FOX television program American Idol, where she became one of 12 finalists for the top prize; and

WHEREAS, although Jennifer was not victorious, she gained wide national and international attention as a singer and performer, and her next big break was quick on the horizon; and

WHEREAS, in 2005, Jennifer landed the role of Effie in the film adaptation of the Broadway musical “Dreamgirls,” from which she received universal critical acclaim and numerous award nominations; and

WHEREAS, among her many nominations, Jennifer received several awards, including honors from the Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes, the latter of which is often seen as a predictor for the Academy Awards; and

WHEREAS, on February 25, 2007, Jennifer beat out a formidable slate of nominees to earn the Oscar for Best Actress in a Supporting Role. At the age of 25, she is the eighth youngest woman to win this award, and only the third African-American woman to receive the honor; and

WHEREAS, the State of Illinois is proud of its native daughter Jennifer Hudson, who went from Chicago kid, to American Idol contender, to Oscar winner. This award marks only the beginning of what promises to be a truly stellar career for this bright young star:

THEREFORE, I, Rod R. Blagojevich, do hereby proclaim February 26, 2007 as

JENNIFER HUDSON DAY in Illinois, in recognition of Jennifer’s remarkable rise to

Oscar Gold.

Posted 02.26.07 05:49 PM | Comments (4)

Rudy Channels Reagan

Rudy Giuliani delivered the keynote remarks to the Hoover Institution's Overseers’ Luncheon at the Willard InterContinental in DC today. Although there were no rah-rah moments for the 9/11 hero, the crowd was instead treated to Giuliani as the champion of free market enterprise -- the tax-cutting, welfare-reducing, budget-balancing descendant of Ronald Reagan.

Giuliani was introduced by his camp's new dir. of policy/'02 CA GOV nominee Bill Simon, who called him "a friend, a mentor, a former boss, and a fellow Ronald Reagan Republican." And although Simon noted that he "comforted us, he inspired us on one of the darkest days in American history," Giuliani strayed from the ever-popular 9/11 storytelling session, and opted to focus his address on how the expansion of "freedom" creates the best policies in taxation, school reform, entitlement reform, and health care reform.

In each area, Giuliani consistently pressed the case that GOP policies will be successful so long as GOPers stick to the core belief that "free market principles are really the salvation." Giuliani, on the GOP: "We're not always right, we're not always on our game. ... [But] we have to go back to our core principles and build on them." And what are those core GOP principles? "Freedom. ... When we've been doing well, we've expanded people's freedom a little bit more," Giuliani said, citing a history of GOPers beginning with Abraham Lincoln, and including "our greatest and most effective presidents," Theodore Roosevelt and, of course, Reagan.

Never delving into specific policy proposals, Giuliani kept his talk to the general sweeping idea of promoting free market policy. Giuliani said that the health care system is "fractured" and "in trouble," but can only be fixed with "free market solutions, competitive solutions." Giuliani: "We work best as a party ... and it helps our country the most when we empower people." On the issue of school choice, for example, Giuliani went back to his experience in New York, and argued: "I don't know how you say no to that. ... I don't know why it's not one of the great civil rights issues of our time." Who do we trust with the education of children, he argued, the board of education bureaucrat or the parent?

Meanwhile, in the Q&A session, Giuliani was first asked about his foreign policy experience, to which he quipped to laughter: "What makes you think that the mayor of New York City doesn't need a foreign policy?" Admitting that the presidency is "primarily a foreign policy role," Giuliani called foreign policy "an area of great interest to me," and one that he has developed through 91 or 92 trips abroad, as well as through international work with his firm. Giuliani: "It's something I know as well as anyone who's running. ... I know the world."

When speaking about the war on terror -- or rather, as he has renamed it, "the war of the terrorists against us" -- Giuliani argued that we should be comparing the war not to America's struggle in World War II, but to the Cold War. In the Q&A session, Giuliani also took the opportunity to condemn the congressional non-binding resolutions as "a way to be safe. It was a way to not make a tough choice."

Although there were no standing ovations and a mere one or two applause interruptions, the audience seemed quietly receptive to Giuliani’s message. But were they convinced? As one audience member said: "I may be in love, we'll see.” [MAURA O'BRIEN]

Posted 02.26.07 03:49 PM | Comments (0)

Paging Joe Trippi....

The Hillary Clinton camp is rolling out the big names of the Clinton Administration in its “grassroots” effort to raise $1M in a week.

The “One Week One Million” campaign launched last week with high profile e-mail (and accompanying picture that still has us scratching our heads) from “Bill Clinton.”

(As of 9 am, they had raised $619,896.)

Today, Clinton’s Sec/State Madeleine Albright sends out an e-mail, sharing her memories of HRC fighting “for women’s rights at home and abroad,” as she stood “side-by-side” with her as the “first woman secretary of state of this country.”

“Albright”: “And what a remarkable woman we're putting forward into this historic moment: strong, smart, experienced, and deeply committed to the values you and I share. The very first day of her presidency, Hillary will transform America's role in the international community because of the deep admiration she has long enjoyed on the world stage. She will restore the respect that is the foundation of our alliances and the source of our strength.”

Anyone else find it interesting that HRC is using bigwigs like Bill Clinton and Madeleine Albright to push a Dean-style grassroots online fundraising campaign? “Bill” wrote last week that the point was to “demonstrate the range and breadth of Hillary's support by raising one million dollars in grassroots donations in a week's time.” Bill and Sec. Albright are kind of mainstream, no?

Dear Friend,

I'll never forget that moment in 1995 when I watched Hillary Clinton stand up in Beijing and declare that "women's rights are human rights." In front of the whole world, Hillary spoke out for every woman who suffered from inequality, injustice, and repression. Every person in the hall knew she was making history. Her act of courage still reverberates through women's lives.

I've known Hillary for nearly 20 years. I've stood side-by-side with her as she took on the fight for women's rights at home and abroad, and let me tell you: no one will stand up for all of us as she will. She is the experienced leader this country needs.

Over the years, I have seen Hillary's deep commitment to improving the lives of women and children. Now it is time for us to show our commitment to her. Will you join me in supporting her campaign's "One Week, One Million" effort?

Click to Contribute:
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/oneweek

I remember what it was like to be the first woman secretary of state of this country. Have you seen the look in the eyes of young women at Hillary's campaign rallies? Can you sense the thrill that comes with knowing their first vote in a presidential election could elect America's first woman president?

And what a remarkable woman we're putting forward into this historic moment: strong, smart, experienced, and deeply committed to the values you and I share.

The very first day of her presidency, Hillary will transform America's role in the international community because of the deep admiration she has long enjoyed on the world stage. She will restore the respect that is the foundation of our alliances and the source of our strength.

Don't let this opportunity pass by. Don't stand on the sidelines as Hillary walks through the critical early weeks of her amazing journey.

Support Hillary's "One Week, One Million" campaign right now.

Click to Contribute:
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/oneweek

Thank you so much for acting early to get Hillary's campaign -- and America's future -- moving forward.

Sincerely,

Madeleine Albright

Posted 02.26.07 01:12 PM | Comments (0)

Spotlight: In Search Of...

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

Mitt Romney could barely contain his glee 2/24 in NH while discussing '08 Dem discord. "It's great, isn't it?" he chortled. But if we learned anything this weekend, it's that discord remains a bipartisan commodity.

-- Let's start on the right, where the Dobson-Falwell-Norquist group that met recently in FL was so distraught that they begged SC's Sanford to run. Sanford declined, according to the NYT, but the episode reinforced fears among top '08 GOPers that the road to the WH is paved with pitfalls. If none of the big 3 break out, look for talk of Newt, Sanford, Jeb and Haley in the fall. There's a vacuum; It's why Romney decided on the conversion approach and why Rudy's as viable as he appears.

-- The Left's drama played out on the left coast as Hollywood (diCaprio, DeGeneres et al) virtually begged Al Gore to run. Sure they raised money with Barack and Hillary. But doubts remain. Besides, only an Oscar winner can truly be one of them. (Note how Gore didn't go totally native in his carefully constructed quotes.)

-- Their doubts are distinct. But from FL to L.A., it's clear this incomplete script is poised for a few more plot twists

Posted 02.26.07 12:54 PM | Comments (0)

Overlooked: Hollywood Hardware Primary

From today's Hotline:

Since Ronald Reagan never won an Oscar, that makes Al Gore the first. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both won Grammys for "Best Spoken Word" for their books (her in '97, him in '06). Rudy Giuliani never won a Grammy but in '98, when he was NYC mayor, he said he didn't care if the ceremony moved back to L.A. (It did). And actor James Woods was nominated for an Emmy after playing Giuliani in "Rudy: The Rudy Giuliani Story." Note that our listing doesn't count ex-Carmel Mayor/multiple Oscar winner Clint Eastwood. Who are we missing? E-mail us.

Posted 02.26.07 12:35 PM | Comments (0)

On The Download: And The Oscar For Best Congressional Web Site Goes To…

Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

A few weeks ago, On the Download reported on the sorry state of official Congressional Web sites, including citing an upcoming report from the Congressional Management Foundation on that topic. The non-profit group issued a report card today evaluating 615 taxpayer-funded Web sites from the 109th Congress, including those hosted by members, committees and leadership.

The best of the lot were awarded with Gold, Silver, and Bronze Mouse Awards, although CMF called the overall state of Congressional Web sites “disappointing” with about 39 percent of Web sites receiving a substandard or failing grade. Out of all of the studied Web sites, 18 received a Gold award, 27 received Silver and 40 received a Bronze rating. Evaluations were based on what the committee called the pillars of a good Congressional Web site: Audience, Content, Usability, Interactivity and Innovation.

You can read the full report here (www.cmfweb.org.), but here are a few notable findings:

*Only Rep. Mike Honda, D-Calif., Senator Jeff Bingaman, D-NM, and Senator Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., have received an award each of the three times the report has been released in 2002, 2003 and 2006.

*Republican Web sites scored higher than Democratic ones, with 69 percent of GOP sites scoring at least a “C” grade compared to just 56 percent of their Democratic counterparts.

*The report notes that there’s a relationship between the Web site grade and this year’s election margins. Members who received less than 50 percent of the vote in 2006 had the highest percentage of Web sites with an “F” score.

Drum roll please… The following House and Senate members received a gold award for their Web site: Reps. Brian Baird, D-Wash., Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., Marion Berry, D-Ark., Earl Blumenauer D-Ore., Mike Honda D-Calif., John B. Larson, D-Conn., John Linder, R-Ga., Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., Jeff Miller R-Fla., Dennis Moore, D-Kan., Charlie Norwood, R-Ga., and Sens. Bill Frist, R-Tenn., Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., and Rick Santorum R-Pa. CMF declined to release a list of the Web sites that received failing grades [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

McCain Does AOL Ad Buy

Although Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., just re-launched his exploratory committee Web site last week, he has been upping his Internet presence well before that with advertisements on America Online. The Republican has been running targeted banner ads on AOL to Republican voters across the country.

AOL has been matching voter files to its subscriber database since before the 2004 campaign, according to Michael Bassik, MSHC Partners VP of Internet Strategy and former head of the AOL political advertising strategy division during that last Presidential election. Bassik said a third party vendor would match the AOL subscriber list with that from a political organization to target specific users. Although commercial vendors have been using AOL to target customers for years, 2004 was the first time political candidates and organizations tried it – and now John McCain is the first candidate to do so for 2008.

It’s a unique strategy for McCain, who enjoys high name identification numbers with the general public but is often panned by the conservative blogosphere. The AOL ad campaign has been under the radar for political insiders who don’t often use the subscription-based online service.

A source with knowledge of this specific ad buy said the rate of return increased incrementally as a direct result of the buy, however campaign spokesman said he did not want to reveal the size of the ad buy for strategic reasons.

The online newsletter Clickz first reported the McCain ad buy in January.

Posted 02.26.07 11:00 AM | Comments (1)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News--
Governors Seeking Help From Congress For Children's Health Care

Capitol Fax -- Winner Or A Loser?

Georgia Political Digest-- House Bill Will Help Establish Accountability

Iowa Politics-- Legislature Will Focus On Budget This Week

JohnCombest.com -- CDT: Legislative Race Might Lure Presidential Hopefuls

NhNewslinks.com -- Election Is Still Far Off, But Sununu Feels The Heat

Quorum Report -- HC: Excutive Disorder

Sayfie's Review -- '06 Lobbyists Spent Up To $253M To Sway Lawmakers

WisPolitics.com-- Records Spur Questions In Report's Delay

Posted 02.26.07 09:30 AM | Comments (0)

February 25, 2007

A Gage Of Romney's Poll Numbers

If Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's poll numbers don't rise over the next few months, don't worry, writes Alex Gage, a senior Romney strategist: Romney is "well positioned" -- more than most -- to win the nomination over the long haul.

Gage made this innocuous and fairly difficult-to-deny point in an expectations-lowering memo the campaign sent to a few hundred members of the "Romney for President Leadership." We've obtained the memo from a friendly member of said Leadership Team.

Gage does not disclose any of the campaign's internal polling. Instead, he uses public polls and an historical assessment of small state governors to make the point that Romney is ahead of, say, where Bill Clinton was at the equivalent point in 1991.

Romney, writes Gage, is viewed favorably by more than 80 percent of Republicans who know him. He's performing about his national average in the key early states. And besides -- only a quarter of the electorate is paying attention.

"Observers in the media will inevitably question why our numbers don't immediately rise after being up on the airwaves, but we must remain patient." Remember that "our ads are only airing in a few states," and history shows that "nationwide polling will continue to reflect name recognition until voters start to pay attention to the election."

Well -- any member of the media expecting Romney's poll numbers to jump nationally after running ads in five states should turn in the membership card. But all this provokes the question: if the television ads won't have any effect on Romney's poll ratings in the five states, why are they being run at all?

The full memo is after the jump.

MEMORANDUM

TO: ROMNEY FOR PRESIDENT LEADERSHIP
FROM: ALEX GAGE
STRATEGIST
DATE: FEBRUARY 23, 2007
RE: GOV. ROMNEY IN THE POLLS

In light of recent media coverage of our advertising campaign, I thought I would take this opportunity to let you know where Gov. Romney stands today in the polls, and what we should expect to see over the next few months.

VOTERS ARE NOT YET TUNED IN TO THE 2008 ELECTION.

According to the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, just 24% of Americans are following news about the 2008 presidential election “very closely.” Far more voters are paying attention to Iraq, the recent cold winter weather, and even the Super Bowl than the presidential election. At this point in the cycle, national polls are entirely a reflection of name identification, not voters’ views of the candidates. Remember that in late February 2003, Joe Lieberman was leading the field for the Democratic presidential nomination.

We should therefore not expect our new ads, which are running in just a few early primary states, to have any impact on voters’ awareness of Gov. Romney nationwide.

BUT, GOV. ROMNEY IS BETTER-POSITIONED THAN PAST SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATES.

As you can see in the chart below, where Gov. Romney’s poll standing is plotted in red, Gov. Romney has more support in national polls at this stage of the cycle than other small-state governors who ran and won the nomination did.

Carter, Dukakis, and Clinton were all governors of small states who began their campaigns with low national exposure and went on to win their party’s nomination. At this point in 1975, Carter was polling at 1%; in 1987, Dukakis was polling at 1%; in 1991, Clinton was at 2%. In the latest Gallup poll, Gov. Romney polled at 5%—an impressive level given that he remains almost entirely unknown on the national stage. It’s also useful to remember that John McCain was unknown on the national stage in the spring of 1999, polling at just 3%, and didn’t begin to attract any significant support until late October.

THE MORE VOTERS FIND OUT ABOUT GOV. ROMNEY, THE MORE THEY LIKE.

Gov. Romney has a strong favorability rating among voters who have heard about him—a recent Quinnipiac poll found that 83% of Republicans who have heard of Gov. Romney have a favorable opinion of him. As more voters tune in to the election over the coming months, we can expect to see his name identification rise—but we should not expect it to reach the levels of candidates like Giuliani or McCain who have been in the national spotlight for years anytime soon.

GOV. ROMNEY IS ALSO WELL-POSITIONED IN KEY STATES.

Now that we are on the air in early primary states, we may see slight improvements in Gov. Romney’s name identification there. But we should not ignore the fact that Gov. Romney is already better-positioned in early primary states than past successful candidates were at similar points.

According to the American Research Group, Gov. Romney’s support in Iowa rose from 6% to 11% between December 2006 and January 2007, and his support in New Hampshire rose from 9% to 20%. At this point in 1991, only 13% of New Hampshire voters had even heard of Bill Clinton, and at this point in 1987, Dukakis was polling at less than one percent in Iowa.

JUST AS WE’VE EXPECTED, GOV. ROMNEY’S SUPPORT WILL GROW SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

With this year’s campaigns beginning earlier than ever, keep in mind that the race is a marathon, not a sprint. Gov. Romney is already well-positioned compared to previous candidates who came from similar backgrounds to win their party’s nomination, but we should be careful not to expect to see movement in the polls until voters seriously begin to pay attention to the race.

Observers in the media will inevitably question why our numbers don’t immediately rise after being up on the airwaves, but we must remain patient. Remember that our ads are only airing in a few states, and as history shows us, nationwide polling will continue to reflect name identification until voters start to pay attention to the election.

###

Posted 02.25.07 09:17 PM | Comments (16)

February 23, 2007

On Call's Weekly Political Quiz

We're not going to do this every week... but just for fun..

1) Hollywood mogul David Geffen, who caused controversy with disparaging remarks about Hillary and Bill Clinton, has previously made headlines for:

A. Being the man behind Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young.

B. A run-in with the California Coastal Commission over public access to the beach at his Malibu compound.

C. Selling the world’s most expensive work of art, Jackson Pollock ’s No. 5, 1948 .

D. A $2-billion bid to buy the Los Angeles Times.

E. All of the above.

2) Which of the following apologies were not uttered by a presidential candidate (or their spouse) this week?

A. “It is not at all what I intended to say, and I would absolutely apologize if any [military families] felt that in some ways it had diminished the enormous courage and sacrifice that they’d shown.”

B. “The truth is, a lot of people in the African-American community were hurt by what I said. I really feel lousy about it. I got involved in politics because of civil rights.”

C. “I’m one who voted for it. I regret that. I wish I could have the vote back. I made a mistake.”

D. “I’m so sorry my husband isn't here. I can promise you that he will be back here. Do expect us to come back to South Carolina with our family.”

E. “[W]hen I heard the interview, when I heard myself, it sounded bad. ‘Them being in another country and they shouldn't be in America.’ That should have never come out. I was like, ‘Damn, I messed that up. Damn, I don't believe that came out my mouth. Damn, that’s not me.”

3) A presidential candidate this week identified _________ as a place “where mothers don’t tell their children someday they can grow up to be president of the United States.”

A. Austria

B. Arizona

C. Chicago public schools

D. Wal-Mart

E. Seneca, South Carolina

4) Which of the following was not said by a Democratic presidential hopeful at the Nevada forum:

A. “How much more chaos could there be in Baghdad than exists today?”

B. “There are two Americas. One America that does the work, another that reaps the reward.”

C. “I don’t think it is a big deal if I get elected president.”

D. “The worst thing we can do is tear each other down.”

E. “I’ve got a $250 suit, you’ve probably got a $2,000 suit.”

5) Hillary Clinton's swing through California this week included a meeting with which group of potential supporters?

A. The Motion Picture Association of America

B. Ballona Valley Preservation League members

C. Latino small business owners

D. Persian Jews

E. The Sisterhood of Traveling Pants [MARISA KATZ]

Posted 02.23.07 07:38 PM | Comments (3)

First NH GOP Debate Won't Include Rudy Or McCain

Sen. John McCain and Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani informed WMUR-TV in New Hampshire today that they will not participate in the April 4 debate -- the event labeled by CNN and WMUR as the "First in the nation" GOP debate.

Not anymore.

McCain will be in the Middle East and Giuliani cited unspecified scheduling conflicts, a person with direct knowledge of the debate refusals said.

CNN's Wolf Blitzer and WMUR's Scott Spradling are the hosts.

Both McCain and Giuliani accepted Nancy Reagan's invitation to participate in the 5/3 debate scheduled for the Reagan Library. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.23.07 04:17 PM | Comments (6)

Giuliani Accepts First Debate

The Hotline hears that... ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani has accepted his first debate invitation.

Appropriately enough, it's for the May 3 gathering at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

No word on whether this will be Giuliani's only debate appearance before May.

Nancy Reagan personally invited the Republican presidential candidates to attend. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.23.07 03:43 PM | Comments (1)

This Week's Tank Talk: Double Jeopardy

Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks.

DOUBLE JEOPARDY
Once upon a time, AEI's Norm Orenstein used to tell congressmen who literally lived in their offices for days at a time that they were "making a big mistake" and "jeopardizing their marriages." In an age where several congressman don't even see their office five days a week, is there something else they jeopardizing?

FORMING FRIENDSHIPS -- DC-STYLE
If Washington is a city in which "no one takes friendship personally," as AEI's Michael Novak writes, does this mean opinions about politicos turn just as easily? Or are we, as Washingtonians, such a breed that we don't trust anyone except those we unconditionally love? Novak, focusing on how DC dwellers view the presidency via the press, examines the possibilities and concludes "perceptions are changeable."

BATTLE OF THE BANDS
Although events at The Brookings Institution focused this week on policy, The Brookings Institution announced it will co-sponsor a serious of talks on the presidential race with ABC News. Will the Brookings endeavor mirror the Decision '08 series recently launched by The Center For Strategic And International Studies? As of now, no. The plan? Simply to provide a forum for scholars to debate the and rank '08 hopefuls. Yet the name, "Opportunity '08" has a familiar ring to it1

WHAT'S MORE IMPORTANT: TALENT OR TRAINING?
If the war in Iraq "will last for years," as Heritage Foundation's James Talent believes, then what should Congress call for when it comes to our military -- talent or training? Talented troops always help, but boots are sometimes better than brains -- especially amidst a cold climate. Talent, playing historian and storyteller, makes a case he suggests Democrats should consider before denouncing any nay-sayers.

REAGAN REVISITED
When it comes to the '08 presidential race, does a candidate's personality matter more than politics? AEI's Steven Hayward coupled up with Cato Institute's John Patrick Diggins to address a new book about Ronald Reagan, which touches on this issue. If any '08 hopeful can deliver Reagan's charisma in a debate, Hayward seems to think America's negotiating opportunities abroad could be "limitless."

Posted 02.23.07 03:30 PM | Comments (0)

Consultants' Candids: After '08, It's Indiana Jones 04

From The Hotline:

Larry McCarthy is pres. of McCarthy Marcus Hennings, a GOP firm that does political and issue advertising, plus corporate video production. McCarthy served as a press sec. for Sens. Jacob Javits (R-NY) and John Heinz (R-PA), and the NRSC. While working for Roger Ailes, he won the '85 nat'l Emmy for Best Writing in a Documentary. And today, McCarthy is our "Consultant Candid."

What is your proudest moment professionally?

Every ad guy is seeking the Holy Grail of The Perfect Spot. My last Perfect Spot was "Ashley's Story" for Progress for America Voter Fund in 04... the perfect combination of a touching, human story that drove a strong message, raised millions of dollars on its own merits, and, as many Democrats noted, had a decisive impact.

If you could be in any other line of work, what would it be?

I want to finally become my Doppelganger, Steven Spielberg, and direct "Indiana Jones IV."

Where is your happy place?

Watching our daughters play the sport du season, watching our Bernese Mountain Dogs endlessly, optimistically, and futilely chase squirrels, and re-living once again Steve McQueen's motorcycle jumps over the Nazis' barbed wire fence in "The Great Escape."

What is the ideal number of clients to have at one time?

The answer to this is found in some mysterious 12th century algorithm which includes the number of winning clients, hours of sleep per night, being proud of your work, feeding the IRS, and the number of laughs per day. I'll let you know when I find the precise formula.

What is the ideal number of clients to have at one time?

The answer to this is found in some mysterious 12th century algorithm which includes the number of winning clients, hours of sleep per night, being proud of your work, feeding the IRS, and the number of laughs per day. I'll let you know when I find the precise formula.

Pose a question for the next interviewee.

The 2004 election marked the mainstream emergence of blogs and online fundraising. In 2006, YouTube became a campaign phenomenon. What do you believe will be the greatest change in the 2008 election cycle that is different from 2006?

Posted 02.23.07 03:00 PM | Comments (0)

Sounds Like A Man On The Payroll?

He's not.. Yet.
BTW: check out the masterful use of regional dialect:

Dem strategist Chris Lehane, "who has not endorsed a candidate," on Obama's response: "It fundamentally undermined their long-term message" (Nagourney, New York Times, 2/23).

More Lehane: "If you're running as a transformative candidate, you have to be careful not to degrade the brand you're offering. Taking a whack at Bill Clinton with Democratic primary voters is like taking a whack at Derek Jeter when you're trying to appeal to Yankee fans" (DeFrank, New York Daily News, 2/23). Still more Lehane: B. Clinton "is as popular with Democratic primary voters as Cal Ripken is with Baltimore Orioles fans" (West, Baltimore Sun, 2/23).

And finally, from Lehane, "the White House spokesman for Bill Clinton": "I think history is pretty clear that those folks who are loyal to the Clintons find the loyalty is really reciprocated -- and that is one of the reasons why so many people have stuck wtih them for so long" (Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle, 2/23).

Posted 02.23.07 02:35 PM | Comments (0)

Get Real

What seems to be mattering most in the early stages of WH'08 is "a different sort of standard," writes Paul Starobin in this week's National Journal. "It's the 'authenticity' standard, the winner being the most appealingly 'authentic' -- as in real, not fake or false -- person in the race. The quotation marks are advisable because authenticity is a deceptively difficult concept to define, especially in the political arena. Authenticity may be about manipulated perceptions of 'the real McCoy' as much as it is about the actual existence of such a figure. No matter. For voters, authenticity has become a Holy Grail." Read more ...

Posted 02.23.07 01:06 PM | Comments (1)

Overlooked

From today's Hotline:

Howard Dean.

Posted 02.23.07 12:35 PM | Comments (0)

The "He's Just Like Everyone Else" Watch

Want proof that Sen. Barack Obama's running at least a little bit of a traditional campaign? At the first hint of trouble, he throws the staff under the bus. (Come to think of it, John Kerry did the same thing -- unfairly, in the eyes of many -- to Robert Gibbs, too).

Said Obama:

“I told my staff that I don’t want us to be a party to these kinds of distractions because I want to make sure that we’re spending time talking about issues,” Mr. Obama said. “My preference going forward is that we have to be careful not to slip into playing the game as it customarily is played.”

So -- we're trying to figure out the timeline here -- did he not speak to his staff at all until 5pm CST yesterday? When he landed in Des Moines in the late afternoon yesterday, he told reporters: " I just heard about this as I got off the plane." Did the roadshow not brief him appropriately?

He seems to have clearly told his staff to respond politely... are we reading the New York Times story correctly? -- all the while claiming he was not terribly aware of the situation itself.

BTW I: If one is interested in staying above the fray, is it too late to disavow Geffen's comments?

BTW II: If comity is the order of the day, will Obama -- has Obama -- explictly asked his staff and his top fundraisers to (a) not personally criticize his opponents in private and (b) stop any campaign oppo research efforts against Democrats? Where does Obama believe the line is between legitimate disagreements and personal attacks?

Posted 02.23.07 11:10 AM | Comments (22)

Who's Freed Up By Vilsack's Departure From The Race?

Now that ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) put the kibosh on his presidential race, here are some of the free agents he's leaving behind. Iowa Democrats: no longer can you hide behind Gov. Vilsack as a reason for not taking Sen. Hillary Clinton's phone call. No more excuses.

Sen. Tom Harkin -- we bet he'll remain neutral. And why not? He's up in '08 anyway.

Teresa Vilmain -- a legendary political operative and field organizer who almost never talks to the press and is known as a miracle worker inside the party. If she doesn't join Clinton's campaign, be very surprised.

Jerry Crawford -- Vilsack's close friend, a top Des Moines lawyer, Kerry's former Iowa chair, a former DGA finance chair, one of the Democratic Party's top fundraisers. He's blessed with a political mind and a massive rolodex.

Jeff Link: a former Harkin re-election mgr, former Gore state director, former ACT state director and state party strategist, he was "senior communications adviser" to the Vilsack campaign. Link has close ties with senior members of Sen. Barack Obama's campaign.

Link's partner in consulting is Matt Paul, a former dep. chief of staff for Tom Vilsack, mgr for Mike Blouin, and dep. state director for Hillary Clinton.

Travis Brock -- a young veteran of state and national campaigns in Iowa.

Other names: Vilsack's Iowa state director Dusky Terry... campaign manager Craig Varoga.... and communications director Josh Earnest.

Posted 02.23.07 10:34 AM | Comments (3)

Vilsack's Dropping Out

Ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack will drop out of the 2008 presidential race today, three independent sources who were briefed on the decision said.

Developing...

Posted 02.23.07 10:25 AM | Comments (0)

Liberals Bash McCain On Creationism "Discovery"

The Campaign to Defend the Constitution, which calls itself "an online grassroots movement" to preserve a strict separation between church and state (or between conservative Christians and politics), blast e-mailed reporters last night a blog post entitled "John McCain Visits The Creationists."

We're making an assumption, here, but it's probably fair to say that most of the nation's elite political reporters are comfortable with the theory of evolution. The DefCon folks (they call themselves that) know their audience.

Still, their post strikes us as a little misleading.

Yes, McCain will be the featured speaker at a luncheon in Seattle tomorrow co-sponsored by the Discovery Institute, which is, course, the most visible proponent of "intelligent design" creationism in the country.

The forum itself is not nearly so controversial; he'll deliver the speech at the Seattle World Affairs Council -- a standard McCain appraisal of the state of the world. And the Institute is one of ten co-sponsors.

The Discovery Institute may object to their organization's raison d'etre being reduced to their advocacy of "intelligent design," but click here and point out where we're wrong.

That's not to say that McCain has no sympathy for their agenda. He told the Arizona Star last year that "all points of view" about human origins should be taught in public schools.

"I think that there has to be all points of view presented but they'd got to be fairly presented. To say that we can only choose one line of thinking... one belief... on how people and the world was created... there's nothing wrong with teaching different schools of thought."

But does it belong in science class? "There's enough scientists that believe that it does. This is something that I think all points of view should be presented."

Depending on how the questions are asked, a sturdy majority of Americans say they don't believe that the theory of evolution is true. A solid majority of Americans -- and this drives virtually all scientists, many modernists and all atheists crazy -- believe in some form of intelligent design. McCain is solidly in the American mainstream. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.23.07 10:00 AM | Comments (5)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- Cox-Backed Bill Passes Preliminary House Vote

Capitol Fax -- Phones Vs. Cable

Georgia Political Digest-- Special Election Set To Fill GA Congressional Seat

Iowa Politics-- IowaPolitics.com: Obama Looks To Be Unifying Force

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Obama In Town?

NhNewslinks.com -- State Smoking Ban Bill Basses In Senate By Large Margin

Quorum Report -- Obama-Rama Feling As Sen. Obama rallies Austin Supportersl

Sayfie's Review -- Bill Seeks Earlier Primary For Florida

WisPolitics.com-- Pay Ranges Could Rise For Top State Jobs

Posted 02.23.07 09:45 AM | Comments (0)

Hillary Courts The Moguls

LOS ANGELES – Sen. Hillary Clinton visited deep pocket Dem donors here Thursday in private gatherings that set the stage for a March 24th L.A. fundraiser expected to surpass the $1.3 million scooped up in earlier this week by Sen. Barack Obama.

With all her Thursday events private, HRC’s shuttle through rainy L.A. began with a breakfast put on by supermarket mogul Ron Burkle, then brunch with more donors hosted by cartoon tycoon Haim Saban and later a cocktail reception put on by investor Sim Farar. Burkle is hosting Clinton’s widely anticipated March 24th fundraiser here; one California Dem consultant described the NY senator’s Thursday appearances as akin to, “pre-sales meetings in a sense, for the big fundraiser,” while predicting that this week’s Clinton/Obama spat over Dreamworks mogul David Geffen’s comments will die down - “This was a first scuffle. Fortunately the Academy Awards (on Sunday night) will stop this momentum.”

Sandwiched in between the flesh-pressing with L.A.’s major Clinton donors was HRC’s visit with former Clinton White House deputy assistant John Emerson, plus an afternoon meet-and-greet with agents and other Hollywood suits at Creative Artists Agency and finally a Beverly Hills dinner with Iranian-American donors. Not stopping to speak to reporters, Clinton was seen being whisked into the CAA reception area, with Daily Variety quoting an attendee of that 90-minute gathering saying that Clinton, “was incredibly well-received.”

HRC spends Friday in Northern California including a noon fundraiser in San Francisco. Along with Obama’s high-profile $1.3 million Beverly Hills fundraiser earlier this week, Clinton’s other `08 rivals also have been seeking California limelight and dollars; former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack flew west last week to chat with Jay Leno on The Tonight Show set, and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) comes to L.A. this weekend to hold three fundraisers. [DAVID FINNIGAN]

Posted 02.23.07 08:56 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline After Dark -- Did You Catch Obama On The Biography Channel?

Pundits still liked to talk about the Clinton/Obama battle, but with actual news to report on Anna Nicole Smith, cable TV went wild with coverage. But here's an update on another important trial:

CNN's Todd, on the Scooter Libby jury: "They have not asked any questions of the judge in a little more than 11 hours of deliberations. What they have asked for are some Post-it notes, some masking tape, a flip chart, and some pictures of witnesses, indicating that they might be trying to set up some kind of a timeline or a chart of who Scooter Libby talked to and when" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/22).

MSNBC's Shuster: "They went seven hours today and, of course, did not return a verdict. They will come back tomorrow -- 11-and-a-half hours, they have been deliberating Scooter Libby's fate so far" ("Hardball," 2/22).

A FAMILIAR FACE RETURNS TO TV

Tom Daschle, on why he endorsed Barack Obama: "I remember, back in the '60s, when I was just beginning to be interested in politics and government, how inspired I was by certain leaders at the time, the Kennedys and Martin Luther King. I think Barack has some of that same magical ability to communicate, to connect, to unify, to inspire. And that's what I see in him."

On Sen. Tim Johnson's health: "He is doing so well. I'm real encouraged. He is actually doing some work from his room. He's communicating. He looks very healthy. And he has got every reason to believe that he will be back in the saddle, on the job, some time in the next several months" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/22).

NO COWARDLY LION HERE

And Obama hosted "Crucibles of Courage" on the Biography Channel last night.

Obama, in his intro: "I'm Sen. Barack Obama. Today we reflect on the greatest moments in the lives of a handful of trail blazers -- whether through their own determination or by circumstance one choice, one risk, one decision that they made changed their country and the world."

He then introduced profiles of Thurgood Marshall, Marian Anderson, Jesse Owens, Shirley Chisholm, and Muhammad Ali (Biography Channel, 2/22). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 02.23.07 07:24 AM | Comments (0)

February 22, 2007

FEC Rules Obama Can Raise For The General, Keep His Options Open

An unqualified victory for Sen. Barack Obama's legal team, although the matter awaits a vote by the commissioners themselves.

The draft proposes that Senator Obama may solicit and receive contributions for the 2008 general election without waiving his eligibility to receive public funds for the general election, under the conditions described in the request, that is:

Contributions designated for the general election will be kept in a separate escrow account;
Only the campaign treasurer and chief operating officer will have access to this account; and
The funds in this account will not be used for any purpose.
Under the draft proposal, if Senator Obama wins the Democratic nomination and decides to receive public funding for the general election, then he must refund all general election contributions within 60 days of certifying his eligibility for public funds.

Posted 02.22.07 04:53 PM | Comments (1)

Today On Hotline TV:

Castles Made Of Sand...fall, eventually?.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 02.22.07 04:08 PM | Comments (0)

The Stars Like HRC, Too

Los Angeles still loves ya, Hillary Clinton.

Hours after her campaign's contretemps with mogul David Geffen produced a string of stories questioning Hollywood's loyalty to the Clintons, Sen. Clinton flew to Los Angeles for several major fundraisers.

First, we hear that Madonna. Magic Johnson and Warren Beatty joined Clinton for a morning kibbitz at the home of billionaire Ron Burkle. A Clinton spokesman said he had no information about their attendence.

Other events on HRC's schedule today include receptions hosted by Sim Farrar and longtime Clinton supporter/entertainment mogul Haim Saban. (Hat tip, Lynn Sweet). [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.22.07 03:41 PM | Comments (2)

'08 Endorsement Watch: The NRA

An occasional series of posts on the presidential endorsement processes for major interest groups.

Organization: The National Rifle Association (NRA)

According to NRA Public Affairs Dir. Andrew Arulanandam, the NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) typically endorses candidates after the nat'l conventions. Approaching '08, the NRA-PVF will survey all WH '08ers (regardless of party affiliation) on issues of interest to the association.

After taking the answers of the party nominees into consideration, as well as their voting records and public statements, the NRA-PVF determines whether or not to endorse a candidate. Note: The NRA has not given its endorsement in every recent WH presidential contest (as in '92 and '96) [AMY DUDLEY]

Posted 02.22.07 03:06 PM | Comments (29)

PolitiScope: Clinton Faces (Not So) Friendly Fire

Now that Hillary's making her WH bid, will the country ever see Bill Clinton the same way? Can HRC run on Bill's record without scratching it? Hotline's John Mercurio takes a look through this week's PolitiScope.

Posted 02.22.07 01:45 PM | Comments (0)

Draft Fred Thompson? Probably Not Gonna Happen

The WH Bulletin (subscription required) reported this morning on growing efforts to draft Fred Thompson, the Law and Order actor, former Senator, and current Paul Harvey replacement on ABC Radio. The report notes slyly that Thompson has yet to endorse any '08 candidate and hasn't disclaimed an interest in the '08 race.

Thompson, the former Tennessee Republican senator who’s now a Law & Order prosecutor and regular replacement for radio host Paul Harvey, is being urged by supporters to consider entering the presidential race, according to associates. “The draft Fred movement is growing,” says one ally. They say that Thompson is flattered by the suggestions, but it is unclear if he is turning away their appeals. The effort is growing among conservative blogs, where several boards are pushing the folksy straight-talker to get in.

Well, for one thing, Mr. Thompson's ABC News contract probably prohibits him from saying anything in public about ongoing political campaigns. Also, while Thompson is conservative and has a record to back it up, he's not and never has been a member of the conservative intellectual elite. He's about as right-leaning as the old Mitt Romney + Mike Huckabee divided by two.

Most importantly, Sen. John McCain is one of Thompson's best friends. They talk regularly. A source close to Thompson said that Thompson will not run for president, period.

And that's the rest of the story. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.22.07 12:38 PM | Comments (28)

Overlooked: What's The Matter With NC?

From today's Hotline:

NC is the only southern state which holds its GOV elections during presidential election years. This would presumably be a boost for most GOP GOV nominees, yet NC hasn't elected one since '88, while every other southern state has had a GOP governor at some point over the past 6 years. (And no, WV is not a southern state, since it was specifically created to NOT be part of the South.)

Posted 02.22.07 12:30 PM | Comments (3)

Texas GOPers Agree To Hold Straw Poll

Harvey Kornberg's Quorum Report, a member of the Hotline Political Network, reports that the TX GOP this a.m. announced a "major new event" for the '08 cycle -- a statewide straw poll on 8/31 in Ft. Worth.

The party expects at least 15K GOPers to participate.

The other major straw polls:

The biggie in Ames, IA on 8/11.

And on or about 9/24, the MI GOP will hold a straw poll on Mackinac Island.

Posted 02.22.07 12:01 PM | Comments (1)

Hotline Hears

Rudy Giuliani has picked up the edorsement of Rep. Charlie Dent (PA). According to Giuliani's team, Dent plans "to enlist other" PA GOPers to follow suit.

Dent, explaining his support: "Giuliani successfully led New York City and became known as 'America’s Mayor' because of his dynamic approach to tackling the challenges facing America’s largest city... It takes a determined fiscal leader to make the kind of transformation he achieved as Mayor of New York – and his record speaks for itself." (Hotline reporting)

Posted 02.22.07 10:15 AM | Comments (0)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- Governor Defends Her Border Efforts

Capitol Fax -- Local Elections Roundup

Georgia Political Digest-- Would Feb. 5 Primary Put Georgia In Race?

Iowa Politics-- IowaPolitics.com: Obama Looks To Be Unifying Force

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: More Anti-War Activists Arrested At McCaskill's office

NhNewslinks.com -- House Passes "Deep Pockets" Bill

Quorum Report -- Business Leaders Hire Lobbyists To Battle Dirty Coal

Sayfie's Review -- Post: Giuliani, Obama Seek Local Dollars

WisPolitics.com-- Taxpayers Pay For Lobbying

Posted 02.22.07 10:00 AM | Comments (0)

The First Big Spat

Anybody else still scratching their head over the Clinton decision to go after Obama over the loss of Hollywood donor David Geffen? Forget what some reporters are reading in to the motivation behind Howard Wolfson's decision (that is baiting Obama over his "above it all" rhetoric). The bottom line: the media has the two leading Democrats fighting over who has more support in Hollywood. Could Karl Rove or any other major Republican strategist ask for a better outcome? But back to the Clinton decision for a minute. A few observations:

-- The Clintons seem hypersensitive about her past.
-- The reaction to the comment was way out of proportion to the comment itself.
-- Is it that hard to find a major Clinton donor who hasn't bashed Obama off the record?
-- This isn't how you avoid being Swiftboated. You can't respond to supposed "Swift Boat" attacks that you have no way of disproving factually.
-- Hollywood liberal and Mo Dowd. That's exactly the frame Clinton needs to be identified with?
-- Vilsack and Richardson must really believe that only Clinton will consider them for the VP slot since both took the opportunity to help her and use Clinton talking points to hit Obama.

As for whether Obama should have responded or not. It's debatable. Yesterday probably wasn't a good day for Clinton and after Obama responded and it became Clinton v. Obama, it turned into a bad day for the Democrats who some had thought were making progress at moving beyond the "Hollywood" stereotype. [CHUCK TODD/MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 02.22.07 07:30 AM | Comments (2)

Hotline After Dark -- The Round Mound Of '08 Rebound

When cable news wasn't talking about Britney Spears or Anna Nicole Smith, they were dissecting the dustup between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and Tony Blair's decision to withdrawal British troops from Iraq:

James Carville, on David Geffen: "A Hollywood guy like that, you try to get him to open his wallet and shut his mouth, because, inevitably, he gets around Maureen Dowd, he's going to make a fool of himself."

Carville, on Geffen saying he's tired of hearing him on TV: "I will tell you what, Mr. Geffen. You can have my TV time. I will take your money" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/21).

HRC comm. dir. Howard Wolfson: "Our expectation was that Senator Obama, who was running a campaign premised on changing our politics, who has decried the politics of slash and burn, would denounce the comments, say that these comments don't represent his thinking or his campaign. We were, frankly, surprised that he didn't do that. It makes you wonder whether or not he agrees with them."

More: "It makes you wonder whether or not he agrees with them and whether or not the campaign put Mr. Geffen up to this" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/21).

Variety's Johnson, on the L.A. scene: "I detect a little bit of the people who are for Barack tend to be on the left side in Hollywood. And I find a lot of the most passionate Barack Obama supporters always mention the war. They mention the fact that he's been against the war from the start. Hillary's people are the traditional Democrats who have been behind her for quite a long time" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/21).

MOVING OUT

CNN's Oakley: "Blair, a prime minister keen to focus on other aspects of his political legacy, like Northern Ireland and the Middle East peace process, feels he's taken a symbolic step forward with the announcement of British troop reductions. But other politicians are suspicious that his move owes as much to forthcoming rounds of elections in Britain as it does to the strategic situation on the ground in Iraq" ("Situation Room," 2/21).

FNC's Hume: "Blair insisted a strong contingent of British troops would remain in Iraq until at least 2008, and that his forces had no intention of backing down" ("Special Report," 2/21).

AL GOV 2014

Ex-BB player Charles Barkley was in the "Situation Room" and said he wants to go into politics:

Barkley: "I want to be a politician. I think I understand how the system works. I think a lot of politicians are corrupt. And it's about time we put some people in there who are going to look out for the majority of the people instead of the rich people."

More: "I just bought a house before the end of the year in Alabama. You have to live there for seven years. So hopefully in 2014, I can run for governor of Alabama."

On his political affiliation: "I'm an Independent. I think the Republicans are terrible and the Democrats are not much better. So I'm really an Independent. ... I said one time I was rich like a Republican. And I still am, I might add. But I think the Republicans have took the country in a terrible situation. And let's get one thing straight about the last elections. The Democrats did not win. They won because the other team wasn't any good."

On WH '08: "I'm really pulling for Barack Obama, John Edwards and Senator Clinton. I think all three of these are great candidates. I'm really pulling for Barack because I consider him a casual friend of mine. I supported John Edwards last time. I think it would be great if a woman became president of the United States."

On being told he has to pick one: "I'm going with Senator Barack Obama" (CNN, 2/21). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 02.22.07 07:13 AM | Comments (0)

February 21, 2007

McCain Scores A Big Conservative

The Hotline hears that Rep. Chip Pickering (R-MS) will serve as MS Chair, Southern Co-Chair, and member of the U.S. House Whip Team for Sen. John McCain.

You might not recognize Pickering's name, but you'll know his face -- he had an unwitting cameo in Borat. A very conservative House member from MS, some believe Pickering is being groomed as Sen. Trent Lott's successor. (Pickering began his political career by working for Lott.) Pickering is the second successful Mississippi Chip Pickering. In '02, Charles W. Pickering Sr.'s nomination to the 5th circuit court of appeals was blocked by Democrats. Pickering retired, joined a swanky law-and-lobby firm, and wrote a polemical, popular book about how liberals had hijacked the federal judiciary.

Given McCain's dalliance with -- heck, his stewardship of -- the Gang of 14, the younger Pickering may be called upon to sooth the nerves of conservatives who care about judicial nomination. Both Pickerings are active in the Southern Baptist Church in MS; the elder Pickering was president of the church's MS branch.

Posted 02.21.07 09:22 PM | Comments (0)

Pity These Won't Fit On Bumper Stickers

With the Dem WH '08ers (minus Barack Obama, of course) busy at the AFSCME candidate forum in Carson City, NV, this afternoon, the RNC marked the occasion by sending out a series of press releases so supporters can "meet" the Dem field. Each candidate got an individual release presenting several pages of unflattering quotes about him or her --- plus a particularly snappy, one-line summary:

Meet Joe Biden, "An Undisciplined, Self-Described Northeast Liberal, In Love With The Sound Of His Own Voice."

There's Hillary Rodham Clinton, "A Calculating, Divisive, Lifelong Liberal With Political Baggage."

Don't forget Chris Dodd, "A New England Liberal, Past His Prime, On An Unrealistic Vanity Run For The White House."

Re-introduce yourself to John Edwards, "A Hypocritical, Inexperienced Liberal With A New Negative Attitude."

There's no escape for Obama, "An Inexperienced, Insulated, Arrogant, Unabashed Liberal."

Check out Bill Richardson, "A Self-Promoting, Washington Insider With A Controversial Record."

And, last but certainly not least, get to know Tom Vilsack, "A Tax-Hiking, Mismanaging, 'Blip' Candidate With No Foreign Policy Experience."

Uh... poor Dennis Kucinich.

Posted 02.21.07 06:00 PM | Comments (4)

Today on Hotline TV: Not Showing Up...

... Is half the battle for McCain.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 02.21.07 04:30 PM | Comments (0)

Inside The Geffen Fundraiser; Who's Really Supporting Obama?

LOS ANGELES - Sen. Barack Obama picked up about $1.3 million in Hollywood money for his ’08 campaign Tuesday night at a posh Beverly Hills fundraiser which followed a large afternoon rally in one of L.A.’s poorest neighborhoods.

“We’re all shopping,” said former Mad About You sitcom star Paul Reiser in describing celebrities interested in but not totally committed to the Illinois Dem instead of Hollywood’s long-established ‘08 favorite Sen. Hillary Clinton.

At least 300 actors, filmmakers and studio executives paid $2,300 per ticket (the maximum allowed federal campaign donation) to attend the Beverly Hilton dinner organized for Obama by Dreamworks SKG studio moguls Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and David Geffen. It was Katzenberg who announced the $1.3 million figure, according to a pool report of the dinner by San Francisco Chronicle staff writer Carla Marinucci. (Event organizers barred all other news media.)

“Don’t sell yourselves short,’’ Obama said in his 25-minute speech, per the pool report. “You are the storytellers of our age.” But after a humorous introduction from his wife Michelle, Obama added that in his change-is-in-the-air campaign, “the starring roles don’t go to me. They go to the people of America.’’

Spielberg called Obama, “great,” and actress Jennifer Anniston called him, “lovely,” the pool report said. Attending too were singer Jackson Browne, actor Ben Stiller, filmmaker Ron Howard and actors Morgan Freeman, Eddie Murphy and Mario Van Peebles.

The swank fundraiser came after Obama charmed several thousand supporters at a large outdoor afternoon rally in South Los Angeles, wrapping up a three-day fundraising blitz up and down the campaign cash-rich Golden State. Obama’s tie-less, shirt-sleeves-rolled-up 30-minute speech was anchored in his campaign’s ongoing themes of changing America and ending the Iraq war and foreign oil dependence. “We fund both sides of the war on terrorism,” he told the crowd.

Orange County, Cal., businesswoman and soccer mom Tanya Hutchison said she epitomized the divided loyalties of African-American women equally attracted to Obama and Clinton. “I love Hillary too and she’s a minority and I want to support both,” said the mother of five, who runs a women’s empowerment web site. “I’m not 100 percent on either.”

Well-known California Dem faces were absent from the rally. U.S. Rep. Diane Watson (D-CA) attended the rally along with some Los Angeles City Council members, but noticeably absent was L.A.’s always camera-ready Democratic Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, whose major donors include supermarket mogul and Clinton supporter Ron Burkle.

Though only one reporter was allowed into the dinner, some attendees offered their opinions after leaving the early evening event;

- Rev. Jesse Jackson said his stopping by Obama’s fundraiser was, “quite coincidental” and that he was in L.A. working on some trade and education issues. As for Obama, “Barack has my vote. He’s from Illinois.” He also described former Sen. John Edwards as, “a sleeper.”

- Quentin Tarantino and Al Gore film producer Lawrence Bender said Obama, “is my candidate. He’s a force or nature.” (Obama on Tuesday praised Gore’s Bender-produced film, “An Inconvenient Truth,” saying that thanks to this Oscar-nominated documentary, the issue of global warming, “suddenly is in everyone’s living room.”)

- Grammy-winning Dixie Chicks lead singer Natalie Maines said Obama is her ’08 choice for now - “early on.” She added that aside from fundraising, the real point of Tuesday’s dinner was that, “everyone was gettin’ a feel for him, for the first time.”

- Former Paramount Pictures CEO and longtime Democratic Party activist Sherry Lansing said Obama was, “spectacular” but that she has loyalties also to Clinton and Edwards.

Longtime L.A. political consultant Steve Barkan said Obama has generated so much excitement among California Dems partly because, “people want to see, touch, feel.” He echoed his fellow Dems in praising what he said is the wealth of ’08 candidates including Obama, Clinton, Edwards and former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, combining into what Barkan called the party’s, “Hilla-bam-ward-son." [DAVID FINNEGAN]

Finnigan is a freelance reporter in California and can be reached at david.finnigan@yahoo.com .

Posted 02.21.07 01:55 PM | Comments (9)

McCain's Wall Street On The Slopes (Murdoch!, Moonves! Karmazin!)

An insurgent candidate when he last ran for president, John McCain is hoping to win over the establishment crowd from Wall Street and big media at a three-day conference in Deer Valley, Utah, next week. Among the 165 chief executives expected to attend -- “the chiefs, not their deputies,” says one insider -- are media mogul Rupert Murdoch, ad firm chief Ann Fudge of Young & Rubicam, CBS executive Les Moonves and Sirius radio CEO Mel Karmazin.

The Arizona Senator had some of these big establishment names in his corner in 2000, when he challenged President George W. Bush for the Republican nomination. Viacom and Goldman Sachs employees gave the Senator $96,000 seven years ago, for example, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. But they gave even more generously to Democratic nominee Al Gore: $166,000. Fully one-third of McCain’s fund-raising in 2000 came in the form of small donations under $200.

The Senator’s entrée to next week’s high-level networking event is James B. “Jimmy” Lee Jr., vice chairman of JP Morgan Chase, which sponsors the annual conference in Utah mountain country. Lee is also co-chairing McCain’s presidential exploratory committee, and he has arranged time in the schedule for important people to get to know the Senator. An overnight stay, a keynote address by McCain and a fireside chat with PBS interviewer Charlie Rose are on the itinerary.

With so many New Yorkers attending the conference, which begins Feb. 28, it’s significant that one will be absent: former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. McCain supporters are consciously trying to make inroads into Giuliani’s presumed fund-raising base. McCain will follow up with a fund-raiser in Phoenix on the evening of March 2, and then jet into New York for a March 8 gala. [ANNE MICHAUD]

Anne Michaud is the editor of the Crain’s Insider political newsletter based in New York City.

Posted 02.21.07 12:54 PM | Comments (2)

Overlooked: Was Bush Just That Good In '00? Or Is He To Blame For Low Turnout Now?

From today's Hotline:

IA's "Caucus Cooler" blog compares '00 vs. '08 attendance at the Five County GOP Dinner in Orange City, IA: "It was this event that gave President Bush a lot of momentum 8 years ago. Bush turned out an enormous crowd which furthered the conventional wisdom that he was strong with conservatives and his election was inevitable. ... But word from Northwest Iowa is that Romney didn't get the same boost from this event last night. Only about 150 tickets were sold and the attendance was somewhere near 100. For 5 counties that is a low turnout."

Posted 02.21.07 12:45 PM | Comments (1)

Bill Clinton's Fundraising E-Mail For Hillary

(ED -- Is the picture cute or creepy?)

Writes Pres. Clinton: "Am I enthusiastic about my wife's campaign for president? You bet I am. I know her better than anybody on earth, and she's got the best combination of mind and heart of everybody I've ever known."

"All across the country, Hillary is campaigning with the signature wisdom, grace, and humor that make her a great candidate. I know that if we all work hard enough, those same traits will make her an even better president."

"You and I know something about waging and winning presidential campaigns."

Read the rest of the e-mail after the jump.

Winning the White House takes persistence, energy and effort -- not just from the candidate, but from a massive network of grassroots supporters.

Hillary's campaign is off to a great start. And this week, we're going to help take it to another level. Our goal: to demonstrate the range and breadth of Hillary's support by raising one million dollars in grassroots donations in a week's time.

Will you help me get our "One Week, One Million" campaign off to a powerful start?

Click to donate:
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/oneweek

Look, with Republicans using everything in their arsenal to stop her campaign, Hillary is going to need every one of us to do everything that we can for her.

During eight years in the White House, Hillary and I faced a constant barrage of attacks from Washington Republicans. No insult was off-limits. No tactic was too low. They threw everything they could at us -- but we beat them time and time again.

The attacks on Hillary haven't stopped, and she hasn't stopped winning. You know how they say what doesn't kill you makes you stronger? Well, Hillary is as strong as they come.

Let's make this a week when we demonstrate that her campaign is strong, too. Strong enough to sustain Hillary's run for the presidency through thick and thin. Strong enough to win.

Click to donate:
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/oneweek

I can't wait to join Hillary on the campaign trail and talk to people about what a great president she's going to be. She is a tireless fighter and a brilliant born leader, and I have no doubt the American people will make her our first woman president.

Over the next week, you'll hear from some other friends and admirers of Hillary. I hope you'll join them in making our One Week, One Million campaign a success. But, most importantly, I hope you'll act right now to get this dramatic display of grassroots support off the ground with a big outpouring for Hillary on the first day.

Click to donate:
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/oneweek

Thank you so much for your support. Hillary and I couldn't do it without you.

Sincerely,

Bill Clinton

Posted 02.21.07 12:32 PM | Comments (37)

The Denouncement: Obama's "Slash And Burn"

The inevitable conclusory statement from Howard Wolfson of the Clinton campaign. "You Refuse To Disavow X But You Said Y"

The subtle message: Obama's campaign ain't as high and mighty as it claims to be.

BTW: who ever imagined the two would get into a spat over David Geffen? Is that a parody of Democrats, or what?

“By refusing to disavow the personal attacks from his biggest fundraiser against Senator Clinton and President Clinton, Senator Obama has called into serious question whether he really believes his own rhetoric. How can Senator Obama denounce the politics of slash & burn yesterday while his own campaign is espousing the politics of trash today?

“When one of Senator Clinton’s supporters made an inappropriate statement, her campaign disavowed it immediately and the supporter apologized for his words. Why won’t Senator Obama do the same?”

Posted 02.21.07 12:18 PM | Comments (9)

Obama Camp Takes Lincoln Bedroom Shot

The Obama camp has responded to Howard Wolfson's demands. From spokesperson Robert Gibbs: "We aren’t going to get in the middle of a disagreement between the Clintons and someone who was once