February 25, 2007
A Gage Of Romney's Poll Numbers
If Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's poll numbers don't rise over the next few months, don't worry, writes Alex Gage, a senior Romney strategist: Romney is "well positioned" -- more than most -- to win the nomination over the long haul.
Gage made this innocuous and fairly difficult-to-deny point in an expectations-lowering memo the campaign sent to a few hundred members of the "Romney for President Leadership." We've obtained the memo from a friendly member of said Leadership Team.
Gage does not disclose any of the campaign's internal polling. Instead, he uses public polls and an historical assessment of small state governors to make the point that Romney is ahead of, say, where Bill Clinton was at the equivalent point in 1991.
Romney, writes Gage, is viewed favorably by more than 80 percent of Republicans who know him. He's performing about his national average in the key early states. And besides -- only a quarter of the electorate is paying attention.
"Observers in the media will inevitably question why our numbers don't immediately rise after being up on the airwaves, but we must remain patient." Remember that "our ads are only airing in a few states," and history shows that "nationwide polling will continue to reflect name recognition until voters start to pay attention to the election."
Well -- any member of the media expecting Romney's poll numbers to jump nationally after running ads in five states should turn in the membership card. But all this provokes the question: if the television ads won't have any effect on Romney's poll ratings in the five states, why are they being run at all?
The full memo is after the jump.
MEMORANDUM
TO: ROMNEY FOR PRESIDENT LEADERSHIP
FROM: ALEX GAGE
STRATEGIST
DATE: FEBRUARY 23, 2007
RE: GOV. ROMNEY IN THE POLLS
In light of recent media coverage of our advertising campaign, I thought I would take this opportunity to let you know where Gov. Romney stands today in the polls, and what we should expect to see over the next few months.
VOTERS ARE NOT YET TUNED IN TO THE 2008 ELECTION.
According to the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, just 24% of Americans are following news about the 2008 presidential election “very closely.” Far more voters are paying attention to Iraq, the recent cold winter weather, and even the Super Bowl than the presidential election. At this point in the cycle, national polls are entirely a reflection of name identification, not voters’ views of the candidates. Remember that in late February 2003, Joe Lieberman was leading the field for the Democratic presidential nomination.
We should therefore not expect our new ads, which are running in just a few early primary states, to have any impact on voters’ awareness of Gov. Romney nationwide.
BUT, GOV. ROMNEY IS BETTER-POSITIONED THAN PAST SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATES.
As you can see in the chart below, where Gov. Romney’s poll standing is plotted in red, Gov. Romney has more support in national polls at this stage of the cycle than other small-state governors who ran and won the nomination did.
Carter, Dukakis, and Clinton were all governors of small states who began their campaigns with low national exposure and went on to win their party’s nomination. At this point in 1975, Carter was polling at 1%; in 1987, Dukakis was polling at 1%; in 1991, Clinton was at 2%. In the latest Gallup poll, Gov. Romney polled at 5%—an impressive level given that he remains almost entirely unknown on the national stage. It’s also useful to remember that John McCain was unknown on the national stage in the spring of 1999, polling at just 3%, and didn’t begin to attract any significant support until late October.
THE MORE VOTERS FIND OUT ABOUT GOV. ROMNEY, THE MORE THEY LIKE.
Gov. Romney has a strong favorability rating among voters who have heard about him—a recent Quinnipiac poll found that 83% of Republicans who have heard of Gov. Romney have a favorable opinion of him. As more voters tune in to the election over the coming months, we can expect to see his name identification rise—but we should not expect it to reach the levels of candidates like Giuliani or McCain who have been in the national spotlight for years anytime soon.
GOV. ROMNEY IS ALSO WELL-POSITIONED IN KEY STATES.
Now that we are on the air in early primary states, we may see slight improvements in Gov. Romney’s name identification there. But we should not ignore the fact that Gov. Romney is already better-positioned in early primary states than past successful candidates were at similar points.
According to the American Research Group, Gov. Romney’s support in Iowa rose from 6% to 11% between December 2006 and January 2007, and his support in New Hampshire rose from 9% to 20%. At this point in 1991, only 13% of New Hampshire voters had even heard of Bill Clinton, and at this point in 1987, Dukakis was polling at less than one percent in Iowa.
JUST AS WE’VE EXPECTED, GOV. ROMNEY’S SUPPORT WILL GROW SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
With this year’s campaigns beginning earlier than ever, keep in mind that the race is a marathon, not a sprint. Gov. Romney is already well-positioned compared to previous candidates who came from similar backgrounds to win their party’s nomination, but we should be careful not to expect to see movement in the polls until voters seriously begin to pay attention to the race.
Observers in the media will inevitably question why our numbers don’t immediately rise after being up on the airwaves, but we must remain patient. Remember that our ads are only airing in a few states, and as history shows us, nationwide polling will continue to reflect name identification until voters start to pay attention to the election.
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Posted at 09:17 PM
Comments
Romney is most qualified. I hope he gets the nomination.
Steve Rinehart | 02.26.07 12:20 AM
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Nixon was a Quaker, Kennedy was a Catholic, get over it America. Romney is the man.
Brad | 02.26.07 04:36 PM
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He is also most qualified for flip-flopper-in-Chief.
Simon | 02.27.07 06:12 AM
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Simon, Apparently you don't know what flip-flop means. Romney did flip (his conversion from moderate to conservative) but he did not flop (move from conservative back to moderate).
Tim | 02.27.07 07:45 PM
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Mitt Romney is the most intelligent candidate. He is very moral and can handle the media. He's the man.
Linda Bento | 05.15.07 11:27 PM
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Mr. Romney is well qualified for the job. He just needs to get his name more recognized! If it's anyone who has a great background with little or yet NO dirt on his carpet, it's certainly Mitt.
***Mitt 2008***
James M. | 07.26.07 10:05 PM
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Mitt Romney will get the nomination. He's good, smart, organized, principled and will make us all proud we are Americans!
Rebecca B. | 09.15.07 02:14 AM
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Mitt Romney stands above the crowd. He often appears to be the only adult in the room considering candidates of either party. He is an unbelievably talented business man with proven chief executive experience on wallstreet and in the governor's office. His speaking ability, quickness, clarity, sense of humor, and likeability are factors that cannot be discounted. As well, he is a moral, principled man whom the country will certainly be proud of as President.
Scott Wiggins | 11.08.07 08:46 PM
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The Republican John Kerry.
Bill R. | 11.14.07 01:49 AM
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Mitt Romney is the most talented and pincipled man I've ever seen runnning for president. He has enormous appeal and can beat any liberal out there.
HT Springer | 11.15.07 06:35 PM
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Romney is head and shoulders above the rest. His helping find a friend's lost daughter in New York reminded me of a hymn;
Have I done any good in the world today?
Have I helped anyone in need?
Have I cheered up the sad and made someone feel glad?
If not, I have failed, indeed.
Then wake up, and do something more
Than dream of your mansions above.
Doing good is a pleasure, a joy beyond measure
A blessing of duty and love.
Romney loves this country and the constitution. He is fired up and ready to serve.
(Music and the words to the Hymn can be found on Google: LDS hymns; Have I done any good.)
Willard Scott | 01.11.08 04:33 PM
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Romney is head and shoulders above the rest. His helping find a friend's lost daughter in New York reminded me of a hymn;
Have I done any good in the world today?
Have I helped anyone in need?
Have I cheered up the sad and made someone feel glad?
If not, I have failed, indeed.
Then wake up, and do something more
Than dream of your mansions above.
Doing good is a pleasure, a joy beyond measure
A blessing of duty and love.
Romney loves this country and the constitution. He is fired up and ready to serve.
(Music and the words to the Hymn can be found on Google: LDS hymns; Have I done any good.)
Willard Scott | 01.11.08 04:33 PM
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Romney is head and shoulders above the rest. His helping find a friend's lost daughter in New York reminded me of a hymn;
Have I done any good in the world today?
Have I helped anyone in need?
Have I cheered up the sad and made someone feel glad?
If not, I have failed, indeed.
Then wake up, and do something more
Than dream of your mansions above.
Doing good is a pleasure, a joy beyond measure
A blessing of duty and love.
Romney loves this country and the constitution. He is fired up and ready to serve.
(Music and the words to the Hymn can be found on Google: LDS hymns; Have I done any good.)
Willard Scott | 01.11.08 04:48 PM
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Romney is the only adult in the race that is not an old man. He is not a one trick pony and can unite this country with his example of morality, sense of family and his knowledge of what it takes to make things work. Yes, Romney is the man!
bill | 01.12.08 11:38 PM
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I agree with the above comment... Mitt is head and shoulders above the other candidates. He is the only candidate that has a resume to prove that he can get anything done.
McCain is a grumpy arrogant old "go-with-the-flow" Washington beaurocrat. He dumped his first wife [who waited for him while he was a POW] for a rich poster girl. His morals cannot be trusted.
Huckabee is a nutcase. He calls himself "conservative", yet he raised taxes, wants amnesty for illegals, freed hundreds of criminals, and thinks he can unite the party by waving his Bible around. He has been a very devisive candidate to this point. He pretends to be a nice guy while taking jabs at Mitt.
Fred Thompson is a conservative in name only. He is far too lazy to be president, and that bulldog face exudes zero charisma.
HT Springer | 01.21.08 01:33 PM
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Jessica | 01.28.08 01:46 PM
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