March 30, 2007

Says Our Spy...

A reader writes:

i work in the press club building. they've just replaced the calendar of upcoming events listing in the elevator with one saying gonzales 's speech has been cancelled. for what it's worth...

The AG had been on the calendar for 4/16.

Luckily, this is still on the schedule:

April 13
Kathie Lee Gifford
Cal Ripken Jr.

Posted 03.30.07 02:33 PM | Comments (11)

YouTube Wars: Rudy Was Spliced

Turns out that ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani had a different reason for opposing George Pataki's tax cuts in '94...

Mayor GUILIANI: He has plans to reduce taxes that are so ambitious and so inconsistent with the performance of the economy of this state that he would, in essence, in order to accomplish that, raise property taxes in the suburbs, around New York, and in New York City. Because-

SHAW: And in your mind that's a no-no?

Mayor GUILIANI: It would be a disaster. It would be an absolute disaster. It would be the kind of tax shift that substitutes for sound management. I've reduced the budget of New York City dramatically. I've actually reduced taxes already in New York City. But I didn't do one of those pledges and promises and one of those fancy campaign things that locks you into unwise economic policy.

Posted 03.30.07 12:57 PM | Comments (2)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"I've never been around anyone who can literally take someone's breath away."

-- George Clooney on Barack Obama, literally, Los Angeles Times, 3/30

Posted 03.30.07 12:41 PM | Comments (2)

New York's African American Bundlers

Along with African-American voters in the polls, Sen. Barack Obama is picking up support among black bundlers in important New York money circles. The Clinton and Obama presidential campaigns released partial lists of their African-American bundlers yesterday. While both campaigns flashed some big names, Mr. Obama's list is decidedly longer and richer in Wall Street types.

Business leaders topping Mr. Obama's list include Earl Graves, publisher of Black Enterprise magazine; Ann Fudge, who recently stepped down as chief executive of Young & Rubicam Brands; investment banker Ray McGuire with Citigroup; asset manager Tracy Maitland; John Rhea, a managing director at Lehman Bros.; Brian Mathis of the Provident Group; and Ron Blaylock of GenNx360 Capital Partners.

Record company executives L.A. Reid and Andre Harrell are supporting Mr. Obama, along with entertainment lawyer Jeh Johnson and hip-hop voter registration organizer Alexis McGill. Robert Smith, who is active in DL21C, and cultural community leader Gordon Davis give the Obama campaign access to those worlds.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has corralled experienced fund-raisers Clarence and Jackie Avant, Binta Niambi Brown and Shahara Ahmad-Llewellyn. Along with Mr. Avant, iconic black entertainment elites Quincy Jones, Bob Johnson and Berry Gordy Jr. are raising money for Mrs. Clinton.

From the political world are Carl McCall, one-time candidate for governor of New York, and Tyson Pratcher, a former deputy state director for Mrs. Clinton who ran unsuccessfully to replace Harold Ford in Congress. Pam Pickens, president of Black Diamonds Entertainment, organizes networking and social events for young black professionals that have drawn 10,000 people.

"There are no lightweights on either list," says Suri Kasirer, owner of a leading lobbying and fund-raising firm in New York City. How much each group can raise will become clearer as campaign finance reports are filed next month.

The Obama campaign released this list of New Yorkers, noting that it is not all-inclusive: Brian Mathis, Jeh Johnson, L.A. Reid, Frank Cooper, Andre Harrell, Derek Johnson, Ray McGuire, Tracy Maitland, Judy Byrd Blaylock, Ron Blaylock, Earl Graves, Ann Fudge, Robert Smith, Vivienne LaBorde, Vaughn Willaims, Gayle Atkins, Charles Atkins, Gordon Davis, John Rhea, Wendy Credle, Alexis McGill, Rhonda Medina, Maxim Thorne, Jason Wright, Marc Mitchell.

The Clinton campaign sent this list: Clarence and Jackie Avant, Dana Wade Smith, Shahara Ahmad-Llewellyn, Binta Niambi Brown, Pamela Hayes, Tyson Pratcher, Carl McCall, Bob Johnson, Quincy Jones, Berry Gordy Jr. and Pam Pickens. [ANNE MICHAUD]

Anne Michaud is the editor of the Crain's Insider political newsletter based in New York City.

Posted 03.30.07 12:40 PM | Comments (1)

The Week Goes To McCain?

First, K-Lo said it on Wednesday:

But look what happened:

1. The 5 year anniversary of McCain-Feingold. OUCH.

2. That old canard: McCain allegedly thought about switching parties. OUCH (Most conservative bloggers are DEFENDING him).

3. McCain skips -- and is slammed at -- the Club for Growth meeting. OUCH

And he still had a good media week. Especially online. That's pretty remarkable.

Posted 03.30.07 11:12 AM | Comments (4)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Dems eye new AZ House pickup

Capitol Fax-- Obamarama -- Replacement talk

Colorado Pols-- White House gets dirty to defend Musgrave?

Doc's Political Parlor-- Daily news digest

Georgia Political Digest-- Edwards to make campaign stop in Macon

Iowa Politics-- McCoy enters not guilty plea

JohnCombest.com -- McCaskill, Durbin, Bond to visit hospitalized vets

NhNewslinks.com -- House panel wants hike in taxes

Quorum Report -- Immigration laws held up at the border

Sayfie's Review -- Fund-raisers bring Clinton, Giuliani, Romney to area

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Dems left without a candidate in District 12

WisPolitics.com-- Problems nibble at Madison mayoral hopefuls

Posted 03.30.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

Romney Internal Memo: Beware Of Early Fundraising Reports

In an internal memo sent this morning to ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney’s top fundraisers, campaign chief counsel Ben Ginsberg delivers a stern warning: look extra carefully at those breathless reports about what Romney’s opponents might have raised.

Why? Because some campaigns, trying to work the refs, will release a single number to the media early next week. But most major campaigns – all of the top six except for Romney – are simultaneously raising money for the primary contests and for the general elections. Low hanging fruits are being squeezed twice. But that general election money shouldn’t matter at all right now – it has no bearing on the primary and if it’s reported as part of the overall total, it’s downright misleading.

As Ginsberg writes, "This money will artificially inflate totals, but it is meaningless in gauging current strength since not one penny of a campaign's general election funds can be used in the primary."

The Hotline obtained the memo from a Romney source, and the campaign verified its accuracy. An e-mail to Ginsberg has not been answered.

Ginsberg's point is a good one: the campaigns on 4/15 will report two separate numbers, one for the primary and one for the general. We'd advise our readers to ignore the general election money and focus solely on the amount raised for the primary. Do not let campaigns fool you into thinking they raised more than they did!

The full Ginsberg memo is after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]

To: National Finance Director Spencer Zwick, National Finance Co-Chairs and the National Finance Committee
From: Benjamin L. Ginsberg, Romney for President National Counsel
Katie Biber Chen, Romney for President General Counsel
Date: March 30, 2007
Subject: A Guide to First Quarter FEC Reports

With Saturday's close of the first quarter FEC reporting period, Romney for President and the other campaigns will be releasing the totals of the amounts they've raised. There are sure to be a lot of articles appearing, and it's important to know whether reporters are measuring apples to apples. Here's a guide of what to look for.

First, Governor Romney's totals will be indicative of our extraordinary success in building an organization and stirring excitement among grassroots activists. The number will be quite a tribute to Governor Romney and all of you since the other leading candidates enjoy universal name identification, existing networks of contributors and clear advantages in the national polls.

Second, be aware that some campaigns' totals will include monies raised for the general election. This money will artificially inflate totals, but it is meaningless in gauging current strength since not one penny of a campaign's general election funds can be used in the primary. Reports that don't separate primary and general election contributions will be misleading. As you know, Romney for President has raised only primary funds, but the McCain, Giuliani, Clinton and Obama campaigns have raised both. (While there may be some advantages in raising both kinds of money now, know there are also disadvantages – for example, 100 percent of general election monies raised must be returned if the candidate is not the nominee. This means that all the costs of general election fundraising, including fundraisers' commissions and event costs must be paid for with primary funds.)

Third, reporters should be telling readers if candidates are planning on taking federal matching funds for the primary. Governor Romney has decided against using the primary matching funds, as have the McCain, Giuliani, Clinton, Obama and Edwards campaigns. Candidates who take matching funds will receive up to a $20 million check from the U.S. Treasury next January – but in return will be limited to spending about $40 - $50 million through the Conventions in late August. By contrast, President Bush and Senator Kerry each raised and spent more than $250 million through their parties' conventions in 2004. Thus, it's difficult to see how any GOP candidate taking the primary matching funds can remain competitive against the Democratic candidate from the time the nominee is decided through late August. (Those who remember Bob Dole's 1996 campaign struggling against the Clinton machine have a taste for what this is like.) In other words, look for the GOP field to start to split between a top tier that can be competitive against the Democratic nominee and a second tier that will be tethered to the federal match and its spending limit.

In summary, we hope this Memorandum gives you a better understanding of what you're reading in the news reporting this weekend and early next week about the first quarter FEC reports.

Posted 03.30.07 09:40 AM | Comments (15)

The 1st Quarter: Final Predictions: UPDATED

Straight to the point: here are our final predictions, based on reporting with key campaign figures and donors. These figures represent totals -- money raised for both the primary AND the general election accounts.

Yes -- this means that most candidates will be well under the expectations set for them by the media (us included).

Sen. Hillary Clinton will raise between $23M and $30M.

Sen. John McCain will raise between $18M and $22M.

Sen. Barack Obama will raise between $18M and $24M.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney will raise between $19M and $21M. ** Romney is not raising general election money yet.

Ex-Sen. John Edwards will raise between $13M and $17M.

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will raise between $12M and $15M.

These figures do not include transfers from other accounts or from the final quarter of '06.

Yes, we're saying that Sen. Obama could outraise HRC.

Burn rates are more difficult to forecast. If Sen. Hillary Clinton winds up with about $16M in the bank, that would track our expectations. Sen. Obama would impress us if he kept about $10-12M. Sen. McCain would need to keep around $15M. Gov. Mitt Romney should have more than $10M in the bank. Edwards and Giuliani will have less.

Forget aggregate raising and spending: of most importance to political journalists and citizens everwhere are the line item disbursements. Only by picking through the FEC data can you get a feel for how these campaigns are actually spending their money. Some questions that we'll try to answer in mid-April include:

1. How much did Romney spend for his early TV ads? How much did Alex Castellanos keep? How much did Romney pay to staff field operatives in Florida?

2. Who has the biggest Iowa / NH / SC staffs?

3. Has any campaign deferred payment to "consultants" in order to keep their overall staff levels in check? Has any campaign "asked" consultants not to take a salary until the second quarter in order to deflate their overall burn rate?

4. Of what Sen. Clinton and the others raise, how much was shunted into a general election account lockbox and is therefore untouchable in the primary?

5. Who's paid the most for lawyers and legal compliance?

6. Who's paid the most per campaign? If it's not the campaign manager, there's a backstory...

7. How much did the two refurbished Straight Talk Express busses cost the McCain campaign?

8. Who paid the most for their websites and internet consulting teams?

9. Who has polled?

10. How many "endorsers" are on retainer?

The only really interesting question we'll answer from the contribution ledger is to discover which Dem donors are doubling or tripling down. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.30.07 09:19 AM | Comments (7)

Hotline After Dark: A Bad Day For Bushies

The political talk on cable last night focused on ex-DoJ CoS Kyle Sampson's testimony:

CNN's Henry: "The president under siege on two fronts, with the full Senate defying him on Iraq policy while a Senate committee hears explosive testimony in this U.S. attorney flap" ("Situation Room," 3/29).

MSNBC's Shuster: "Even administration supporters said today that testimony by Kyle Sampson was devastating" ("Hardball," 3/29).

PBS' Holman: "Since the controversy broke, Gonzales has maintained that the firings were not politically motivated, but for performance-related reasons. Today, Sampson said there is no real difference between the two interpretations" ("NewsHour," 3/29).

CNN's Bash, on GOPers' reax to Gonzales: "They're simply fed up. They say that, at this point, the attorney general has a very high bar to get over in order to explain himself. They're not pushing him over just yet. But they're certainly not getting out there to support him, not even close" ("AC 360," 3/29).

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), on Gonzales: "I'm not going to run him out of town on a rail based on newspaper stories or television or radio interviews. I want to see him eyeball to eyeball. I want him under oath and hear what he has to say" ("LKL," CNN, 3/29). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 03.30.07 07:15 AM | Comments (2)

March 29, 2007

Dobson To Thompson: An Apology, Of Sorts

Dr. James Dobson clarifies his comments about Sen. Fred Thompson in statement released by his office:

“We welcome the opportunity to clarify Dr. Dobson’s remarks that were first reported in Dan Gilgoff’s online article titled ‘Dobson Offers Insight on 2008 Republican Hopefuls: Focus on the Family Founder Snubs Thompson, Praises Gingrich.’ At the outset, it’s important to note that this headline is an outright mischaracterization of the views Dr. Dobson expressed. His words weren’t intended to represent either an endorsement of former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich or a disparagement of former Sen. Fred Thompson. Dr. Dobson appreciates Sen. Thompson’s solid, pro-family voting record and his position that Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided.

“In his conversation with Mr. Gilgoff, Dr. Dobson was attempting to highlight that to the best of his knowledge, Sen. Thompson hadn’t clearly communicated his religious faith, and many evangelical Christians might find this a barrier to supporting him. Dr. Dobson told Mr. Gilgoff he had never met Sen. Thompson and wasn’t certain that his understanding of the former senator’s religious convictions was accurate. Unfortunately, these qualifiers weren’t reported by Mr. Gilgoff. we were, however, pleased to learn from his spokesperson that Sen. Thompson professes to be a believer.
“With regard to Mr. Gingrich, while Dr. Dobson spoke positively about his intelligence and his ability to articulate conservative values, he expressed concern about the former speaker’s past moral failures. You may be aware that Mr. Gingrich recently appeared on a Focus on the Family broadcast to discuss America’s Christian heritage and the threat posed by radical Islam. Prior to the interview, Dr. Dobson asked Mr. Gingrich if he’d be willing to talk about his family life on the air because he felt our friends deserved an explanation. Those who listened to the exchange heard nothing indicating that Dr. Dobson excused Mr. Gingrich’s past indiscretions. The former speaker was offered a chance to address the subject openly and honestly, and he did so, stating, ‘I have turned to God and have gotten on my knees…and sought God’s forgiveness.’ Dr. Dobson firmly believes that Scripture teaches there is redemption available through Christ for those who confess their sins – were it not so, we’d all be in a world of trouble. Of course, only the Lord knows the condition of individual hearts.

“In conclusion, we would caution friends of our ministry not to believe what they read about Dr. Dobson in the secular media today. Never in the 30-year history of this ministry has there been more misreporting and outright distortion of his beliefs and teachings. It is apparent that those who represent a liberal worldview seek to marginalize him and confuse our friends. Anyone who ever has a question concerning what they read about Dr. Dobson or Focus on the Family is encouraged to contact us for clarification. The chances are they have been misinformed.”

Posted 03.29.07 08:00 PM | Comments (11)

YouTube Wars: In '94, Rudy Thought Cuomo Was Better Than Pataki On Taxes

The latest round, fresh from YouTube:

On why Rudy endorsed Mario Cuomo (D) over George Pataki (R) in '94: "[Pataki] has plans to reduce taxes that are so ambitious and so inconsistent with the performance of the economy of the state. It would be a disaster. It would be the kind of tax shift that substitutes for sound management."

[MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.29.07 07:32 PM | Comments (4)

Today On Hotline TV: If The Price Is Right

How high can Hillary go? Place your bids and come on down!

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 03.29.07 04:37 PM | Comments (1)

Spotlight: A Petrae Dish

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

John McCain is counting on Steve Duprey in NH and Chuck Larson in IA. But he needs another key ally to deliver an even bigger prize: David Petraeus in Iraq.

-- In his 3/28 spat with Obama, and his online "surrender is not an option" petition, McCain revealed a new optimism about Iraq and a shift in his WH '08 strategy. When he returns from the region next week, he'll give what aides bill as a major policy address about progress under Petraeus and new standards for success.

-- His notable pessimism and calls to "do our duty" have suggested, as Obama said 3/28, that McCain wants to stay in Iraq indefinitely. But in the weeks ahead, aides say, he'll evince a can-do spirit and conviction that America can get Iraq right because new tactics are working.

-- McCain's toughest task is convincing voters to give the war another shot, even if there are signs of success. That's why he frontally rebuffed Obama, asking why the Dem would choose to surrender in the wake of "early progress." It's a hard argument for McCain to build. But as the WH '08er most closely tied to the war, does he have any other choice?

Posted 03.29.07 01:39 PM | Comments (1)

The Politics Of "Worksite Enforcement" -- Update

Federal agents are conducting “worksite enforcement” actions, otherwise known as raids, in and around the Baltimore area this afternoon, a senior Homeland Security official confirms. Agents from the Immigrations and Customs Enforcement Bureau have gone to 8 locations, and officials will hold a press conference at 2:00 PM ET, said Marc Raimondi, the ICE spokesperson.

The worksite action comes on the heels of a raid in New Bedford, Mass., on a clothing manufacturer who held millions of dollars in Defense contracts. ICE rounded up several hundred people in that raid, but stirred the ire of Massachusetts Sens. John Kerry and Edward Kennedy because some of the apprehended illegal workers were separated from their young children, some of whom were born in the United States and are citizens. Kerry has called for an investigation into how the raid was planned and carried out, and Kennedy compared the plight of children and family members separated from the apprehended workers to the “human suffering that we all witnessed after the devastation wreaked by Hurricane Katrina.

ICE officials defended themselves against criticism from the lawmakers, as well as state and local officials, who accused the agency of being ham handed in its approach. ICE noted that state and local agencies, as well as the governor’s office, were briefed in advance of the raid, and that the workplace raid was a legitimate part of ICE’s mission to enforce immigration laws. They also said they took steps to ensure that any workers who were the sole providers for children at home were let go for “humanitarian” reasons.

Presumably, ICE officials will be especially sensitive in how they process suspected illegal workers in the Maryland raids today. Raimondi said that the Maryland raid is “not as big” as the one in New Bedford, indicating that not as many workers will have been rounded up by the end of the day. [SHANE HARRIS]

Posted 03.29.07 01:20 PM | Comments (1)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"I don't think the attorney general's statement that he was not involved in any discussions of U.S. attorney removals was accurate."

-- Ex-Gonzales CoS Kyle Sampson, AP, 3/29

Posted 03.29.07 12:35 PM | Comments (2)

20/20 -- Excerpts From The Excerpts

Exerpts from the excerpts:

Rudy Giuliani said that if elected president, he would have no problem allowing his wife Judith Giuliani to sit in on cabinet meetings, "If she wanted to. If they were relevant to something that she was interested in. I mean that would be something that I'd be very, very comfortable with," he said.

Judy Giuliani:

"Rudy and I have never had any secrets from each other. … Rudy and I have always known everything about each other," she said. "I have just recently begun -- I think they call it in the political world -- being 'rolled out publicly.' … And when I was asked, we discussed it. That was my decision."

When asked how she and Rudy had met, Judith said, "That's one thing that I would kind of like to keep private," but she did say the two met "by accident."

She said that the two were instantly attracted to each other, and that "from the minute that Rudy and I met, we had an incredible … mutual respect for each other."

Posted 03.29.07 12:01 PM | Comments (3)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Child-prostitution bill clears hurdle

Capitol Fax-- McQueary: Where’s the outrage?

Colorado Pols-- Sen. Salazar sharpens anti-Bush rhetoric

Doc's Political Parlor-- AL-2 Rumors and Facts

Georgia Political Digest-- Lawmakers mull delaying class-size reductions

Iowa Politics-- Key lawmakers assemble $60 million preschool package

JohnCombest.com -- Blunt on Blunt: Will son follow father's advice?

NhNewslinks.com -- House rejects use of medical marijuana

Quorum Report -- Lawmakers say I-10 is major slave trafficking route

Sayfie's Review -- Crist leaves little doubt Bush reign has ended

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Ramsey/Bredesen Debate Political ...

WisPolitics.com-- School vacations create run on absentee ballots

Posted 03.29.07 11:10 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline Political Network Welcomes Colorado Pols

Q: Where do political junkies in your state get their news?

A: These sites -- the affiliates in our Hotline Political Network.

We don't endorse all the content on 'em -- they're independent, after all, which is a good thing -- but we do vouch for the sites' influence in their states and, generally, the degree to which folks in both major parties find them fair. Some are run by folks who have backgrounds in politics; others are authored by journalists. Some are fully-fledged news organizations.

To be included in our informal network, the sites must operate independently of any political candidate or of any entity that represents political candidates. No one operating a site can be paid by a firm that has an '08 candidate as a client. Site contributors linked to campaigns must disclose their affiliations. If site owners decide to donate to, volunteer for or raise money for any candidate ('08 or otherwise), they gotta tell you about first -- in big bold type, at the top of their pages. That way, you'll know. Other than that, enjoy!

Posted 03.29.07 10:18 AM | Comments (1)

The Last Minute Scramble

Donors, your deadlines are hours away.... get those pledges in!

Posted 03.29.07 09:25 AM | Comments (0)

Inbox, Outbox, 3/29

How much the '08 will raise doesn't interest us nearly as much as their line item disbursements. Where they're spending their money geographically, how much senior strategists are getting paid, which "endorsers" get consulting contracts, how much direct mail prospecting has cost and what the rate of return was... Dan Hoover is already starting to notice. BTW: Why was Alex Castellanos, who is a top strategist for Mitt Romney, having dinner with Fred Thompson?

If Barack Obama refuses to take campaign contributions from lobbyists but allows lobbyists to hit up their wives, husbands and families for contributions, and is able to raise more than $200K at a tony law and lobby firm in DC, can he cleanly claim to have taken a real symbolic step in ridding his campaign of the pernicious influence of those scandalous l-worders?

We might have wanted to hear what CBN Newsers were talking about during last night's Radio Television Correspondents Association dinner. Guests included Michelle Malkin and David Vitter. Wonder if immigration and/or Rudy came up.

A list of moneymen that'd make Chris Cillizza cry.

And our Capitol Fax Blog's Rich Miller tells us that the IL House has voted to move its primary to 2/5. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.29.07 09:07 AM | Comments (2)

Rudy Storms The Barns For The First Time

Next week, watch for ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani's first stretch of serious retail campaign stops. According to an aide, Giuliani will attend events and participate in town hall meetings in New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida and South Carolina.

"He and his surrogates have spent this week (and will spend the next couple of weeks) talking about his record of fiscal conservativism and his commitment to supply-side economics," the Giuliani aide said.

Expect lots of New York know how -- as in, "Know how Rudy fought the unions?" "Know how Rudy tamed the liberal bureaucracies?" as in "Know how Rudy cut taxes?"

The message of the tour, according to the aide, is this: "Rudy is the true fiscal conservative in this race. He doesn’t talk the talk – he has walked the walk."

Florida is an interesting addition to the tour. The state may well move its primary to 1/29, and for Rudy, it would put more blush on the attractive idea of dancing around the conventional early primaries and making his stand in the bigger states where his popularity alone could carry him to victory. In the bigger states, Rudy's media image is paramount. Note: if the local TV stations there cover the message that we've described above, consider it a good trip. [MARC AMBINDER}

Posted 03.29.07 08:38 AM | Comments (1)

Hotline After Dark: Battle Plans

Several '08ers were on TV last night to talk about Iraq.

Joe Biden: "What people don't read about the Senate resolution, the Senate bill we passed, it sets a goal just as the same goal set out by the Baker-Hamilton commission, the Iraq Study Group, to have combat troops out by March of '08, except for those left behind to protect the borders, to protect our troops, train Iraqis and go after al Qaeda. It is not as the president portrays it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/28).

Bill Richardson: "I would not leave any troops in Iraq. ... If I were president today, I would withdraw by the end of this calendar year, depending on what our military says. But I would also have a reconciliation conference of the three religious groups, forge a coalition government, divide the country into three entities. ... I don't believe you need a residual force in Iraq. I believe you need any troops that you can deploy from Iraq. I would put them in Afghanistan, where al Qaeda and the Taliban are serious threats" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/28).

Barack Obama: "I'm very proud of the fact that I was against this war from the start."

More: "Now, there is a ratcheting-up of pressure on the president. And I am very pleased about the vote that took place yesterday, where a majority of the Senate for the first time said we need to have a timetable."

Obama: "John McCain may believe that it's an option for us to maintain an indefinite occupation of Iraq, regardless what happens in terms of the politics within Iraq, so that we're, every year, sending $100 billion over to Iraq, so that, every year, we're seeing hundreds or thousands of young Americans dying, so that we continue to see a deterioration of America's standing in the world. I don't think that serves the best interests of the United States. ... I don't question John McCain's sincerity in believing that the approach that he wants to take, which is essentially a continuation of Bush policies over the last six years, are the right ones to take."

On the fired U.S. attys scandal: "I think that the issue of executive power and executive privilege is one that is subject to abuse and in an Obama presidency what you will see will be a sufficient respect for law and coequal branches of government that I hope we don't find ourselves in a situation in which we would be having aides being subpoenaed for what I think everybody acknowledges is some troublesome information."

Asked about gay groups being upset he didn't respond to Gen. Pace's comments: "I'm not sure that the story got out there properly. I mean, what happened was I was leaving a firefighters' union meeting and trying to get in my car and did not respond to a reporter's query at that point. I wasn't responding to reporters period because I was trying to make a vote. Subsequently I made it very clear. I don't think that gays and lesbians are any more moral or immoral than heterosexuals and that I think it is very important for us to reexamine the don't ask, don't tell policy because it's costing us millions of dollars in replacing troops that by all accounts are actually doing a good job but are simply being kicked out of the military because of their sexual orientation."

On Al Sharpton: "I don't think there was much going on there. The Reverend Sharpton has been a terrific advocate on behalf of the dispossessed. I've always expressed my respect for him. I think this was a misunderstanding as a consequence of his reading of a report in New York, and I called him and said we had nothing to with the article" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/28). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 03.29.07 07:20 AM | Comments (2)

March 28, 2007

Mitt Romney Is Not A Fan Of Forbes' Flat Tax

It's come up before, and we'll bring it up again. Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney was not a lover of Steve Forbes's flat tax, and, as a "concerned citizen," took out ads in Boston, New Hampshire and Iowa in 1996 to send the publisher that message.

At the end of the ad, Romney argues that government money is better spent on a series of priorities, including reudcing abortion, fighting pornography, ending frivolous lawsuits .... and campaign finance reform.

Posted 03.28.07 04:54 PM | Comments (4)

Today On Hotline TV: Lowered Expectations

Mitt and McCain are battling to lower the bar, but when the fundraising dust clears, will either have money to burn? We've got the bottom line.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 03.28.07 03:00 PM | Comments (0)

Spotlight: Hagel's Timetable

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

Did Chuck Hagel help hand his party a major defeat on Iraq and, coupled with his recent use of the I-word re: Pres. Bush, further cement his status as the Senate GOP's biggest, baddest maverick? Or did Hagel unwittingly help his fellow GOPers put Senate Dems on record calling for a timetable, forcing yet another showdown with Bush and putting Dems on course toward '08 defeat?

-- In either case, one thing seems virtually certain: Hagel's no longer planning a WH '08 bid, at least not as a GOPer. (Or, alternatively, not one he plans to win).

-- Two weeks after he announced he'd announce his '08 intentions later, and voted against identical withdrawal language, Hagel delivered the deciding vote 3/27 for Dems' timetable. It was the vote of a GOPer seeking re-election in NE, where even GOPers like ex-Rep. Bereuter oppose the war. It wasn't the vote of a GOPer plotting a WH race against McCain, Romney and Giuliani in SC and beyond.

-- On the other hand, is Hagel simply ahead of the curve? He called for AG Gonzales to resign on 3/25; today, the National Review followed suit.

Posted 03.28.07 02:15 PM | Comments (6)

Overlooked: The One-Termin'08er

From today's Hotline:

Barack Obama would be the 4th president to have served in Congress without completing at least one full term. James Monroe spent a few years in the Senate, while Andrew Jackson served only partial terms in both the House and Senate. Warren G. Harding resigned about 2 months prior to end of his only Senate term to assume the presidency. Abraham Lincoln and Benjamin Harrison served exactly one term in the House and Senate, respectively.

Posted 03.28.07 01:35 PM | Comments (0)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"I don't think he's a Christian; at least that's my impression."

-- Focus on the Family's James Dobson, on Fred Thompson, USNews.com, 3/28

Posted 03.28.07 12:30 PM | Comments (4)

Insider Interview: Claire McCaskill

NationalJournal.com continues its Q & A series with the Senate freshmen, sitting down with Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), "An Auditor And A Senator."

McCaskill talks about putting her fiscal skills into practice on the Hill -- and getting some accountability on Iraq. Here's a preview:

McCaskill: "We have never turned the president down for one dime of money for this war, ever. Every dime he's asked for, Congress has given him. Up until right now. And so if we don't have what we need to do the job, then somebody has some explaining to do. Why don't people lose their jobs when they misspend money in the Department of Defense?"

Continue reading "An Auditor And A Senator."

Posted 03.28.07 12:15 PM | Comments (0)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- Area lawmakers getting little done

Capitol Fax -- Question of the day

Doc's Political Parlor-- Cramer Most Powerful Alabama Representative

Georgia Political Digest-- Final dash for legislative bills

Iowa Politics-- Clinton will help Vilsack pay off his campaign debt

JohnCombest.com -- Bond bashes vote to set Iraq timetable

NhNewslinks.com -- NH keeps its death penalty

Quorum Report -- Separate but toxic

Sayfie's Review -- Lawmakers bypass Crist's requests

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Tobacco Lobby Outworks Education Lobby

WisPolitics.com-- Concerns aired on statewide cable bill

Posted 03.28.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline After Dark: Toeing The Timeline

Besides a lot of well wishes for Tony Snow last night, TV concentrated on the Senate vote on Iraq:

John McCain was in the "Situation Room" last night to discuss Iraq (the interview took place before the SEN vote). He started his interview by saying: "Could I just say, I am a supporter of the new strategy. It's a new strategy. It's an increase in troops, but it's an entirely different strategy. And it is succeeding, as we speak."

More: "I am confident hell won't freeze over. I am confident we can succeed if we stay with this strategy. And if I'm wrong, we've got a lot more problems than anything that it does to my political reputation."

Asked if AG Gonzales should resign: "No, I think he should be able to make his case and everybody should work together so that he can make that case. I certainly believe in executive privilege, but I'm hoping that reasonable people could sit down and work out a way to get this whole issue out in the open and resolved" (CNN, 3/27).

And McCain made the morning show rounds this a.m.

CNN's Malveaux: "So far ... the White House is not yet worried. They think this is veto-proof legislation. But, then, if the Republicans start jumping ship, it is going to be a big problem. So far, the strategy is, despite the fact that it's going to be the president to veto, they are painting this as the Democrats vs. the U.S. troops" ("AC 360," 3/27).

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS): "We knew the vote could go either way. It was going to be close, and we lost. But I think what it really means is the president is really going to be forced by the Democrats in Congress to veto this bill. That's a tough decision, because it contains funds that are needed now for giving the troops in the field what they need to protect themselves and do a better job of winning this war" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/27).

FNC's Garrett: "The president's veto still stands. But Democrats will argue that both chambers of Congress have now embraced a timeline for withdrawal. They know the president will not accept it, and they will have to compromise eventually, but in those talks, Democrats now feel, they have more clout than if the Senate had killed this troop withdrawal timeline" ("Special Report," 3/27). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 03.28.07 07:20 AM | Comments (1)

March 27, 2007

Today On Hotline TV: Dick Wadhams' Want-Ad

Now Hiring: GOP Senate candidates in CO. Competitive benefits; duties could go either way. Don't call us, we'll call you.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 03.27.07 03:30 PM | Comments (0)

Spotlight: Been There vs. Haven't Done That

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

They're the biggest '08 Dem storylines: B. Clinton is a double-edged sword for HRC, and Obamamania will subside, a victim of rookie flaws. Both stories drive the race today, and they have more in common than you think.

-- As HRC counts the millions he has helped her raise, the NYT writes about her efforts to repair his "rocky relationship" with military brass. House GOPers want him to testify about the (Marc Rich) pardons. And HRC, campaigning in IA, dismissed GOP comparisons between the Bush atty firings and those in Clinton's DoJ.

-- Meanwhile, two new polls show the Oboomlet stalled, as some black Dems move back to "undecided" and women stick w/Clinton. Three days after his health-care know-how was panned in Vegas, AP asks, "Is Obama all style and little substance?"

-- Notably, HRC and Obama benefit by comparison to one another's downsides. HillaryCare 2.0 drew raves in Vegas; she's learned a lot since '93. Obama has no past presidents to apologize for; being a rookie does have its upsides. One year from now, which story will drive this race?

Posted 03.27.07 02:30 PM | Comments (3)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"His attitude is one that he is not going to let this whip him. My attitude is that we need to pray for him."

-- Pres. Bush on Tony Snow, AP, 3/27

Posted 03.27.07 12:39 PM | Comments (0)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- Immigration hawks seek to put two measures on Arizona's ballot

Capitol Fax -- Morning Shorts

Doc's Political Parlor-- DAILY NEWS DIGEST

Georgia Political Digest-- Do-or-die time for many bills

Iowa Politics-- Senate approves extension of civil rights to gays, lesbians

JohnCombest.com -- Ambassador nominee Fox under fire

NhNewslinks.com -- Debating who's a couple, who's not

Quorum Report -- Romney scores Texas' biggest political donor

Sayfie's Review -- Contributions legal, but raising eyebrows

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Blogger day on the hill

WisPolitics.com-- Candidates spend $1.4 million on Supreme Court race

Posted 03.27.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

AP: Snow's Cancer Is Back

The AP reports that WH spokesperson Tony Snow's exam yesterday showed his cancer has returned:

Snow, 51, had his colon removed in 2005 and underwent six months of chemotherapy after being diagnosed with colon cancer. A small growth was discovered last year in his lower right pelvic area, and it was removed on Monday. Doctors determined that it was cancerous, and that his cancer had metastized, or spread, to his liver, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said.

She said Snow is resting comfortably after his surgery and has pledged to aggressively fight the disease with an as-yet-to-be-determined treatment course.

"He said he's going to beat it again," Perino said in an emotional morning briefing with White House reporters. "When I talked to him, he was in very good spirits."

Posted 03.27.07 10:27 AM | Comments (1)

Hotline After Dark: Cool Under Fire

Lots of good interviews on TV last night:

AG Alberto Gonzales sat down with NBC's Pete Williams:

Gonzales: "I was not involved in the deliberations during the process as to who should or should not be asked to resign. I depended on the people who knew about how these United States attorneys were performing, people within the department who would have personal knowledge about these individuals."

More: "I know the reasons why I asked these United States attorneys to leave, and it was not for improper reasons, it was not to interfere with a public corruption case, it was not for partisan reasons. I also, we also know that there is nothing in the documents that indicates that they were asked to leave for improper reasons."

On if he'll resign: "I think that every Cabinet official has to ask themselves -- every day - Is it still appropriate for me to lead a Cabinet department? It's something that I've been asking myself more lately than perhaps others. Because at the end of the day, it's not about Alberto Gonzales. It's about this great Department of Justice. .. I'm confident that ... we can still move forward and still continue to do great things for the American people. And as long as I have the confidence of the president, I intend to do just that."

THE ABCs OF CAMPAIGNING

ABC's Terry Moran joined John McCain on the Straight Talk Express:

Asked if being tied to Bush is a liability for him, McCain: "Sure. But one, you've got to do what's right. Second, there is a little irony that I was the greatest critic of the way the war was mismanaged. But life isn't fair. There's so much at stake here, in this conflict that, you know, I really must do what's right.. ... I have no choice. Nor would I consider any other choice."

On not being the frontrunner when everyone expected him to be: "Yeah. You know, we're a little concerned, obviously. I mean, to say that, you know, sounds great. But I think this is the beginning of the campaign. I'm glad where we are, financially, politically, every other way. I'm happy. In these early states, we are either tied or ahead with all of our competitors. So I'm happy about that. But do we have a lot of work to do? Sure."

Asked if he's moving to the right: "If you look at my positions on literally every issue, I haven't changed. I'm no different from what I was. And that's a tiny bit frustrating to me that this portrayal, well, he's pandered to this or done that. I don't know" ("Nightline," ABC, 3/26).

ANOTHER CALL FOR GONZALES TO STEP DOWN

Chris Dodd was in the "Situation Room":

On Gonzales: "The time has come based on the information over the weekend and this kind of information that the attorney general really needs to step aside. The president ought to be asking for his resignation. This story is only going to get worse."

On Hagel saying Bush could be impeached: "I don't want to see us jump to this right now. It seems to me this is getting ahead of ourselves. There have been calls already. Various people have raised that as a suggestion here. I'd rather see us try and resolve some of these outstanding issues we have here."

More: "I've been down this road -- that foolish effort to impeach Bill Clinton, that took so much time and effort here, I would be very cautious about jumping to that procedure here of impeachment having been through it once already" (CNN, 3/26).

AND NOW, THE REST OF THE STORY

And here are some updates on yesterday's big stories:

Tom Vilsack, asked if he was looking at the VP mansion: "The key is just for Senator Clinton to do well in Iowa and begin this campaign. Honestly that's the focus. We have got to focus on Iowa. We have got a tough fight ahead of us" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/26).

FNC's Angle: "We know that this was a Senator Webb's gun, that it was brought in by one of his aides. Apparently Senator Webb went to the airport at some point in the last couple of days, and the aide took the bag with the loaded weapon in it. ... It was in some bag the senator had, but he was getting on a plane, and could not take it with him, obviously. Now, the interesting thing here ... is that if a senator goes through security, you don't have to put your things on the belt. You don't have to go through metal detector. You just walk around it. And you can also waive an aide around if you wish. So, he could have done this many times and it never have come to the attention of anyone" ("Special Report," 3/26). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 03.27.07 07:40 AM | Comments (5)

March 26, 2007

Expectations Alert: HRC In Iowa

From Ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack's endorsement of Sen. Hillary Clinton:

Christie and I plan on spending the next 10 months helping Hillary win the Iowa caucuses and the other states necessary to win the Democratic nomination -- and after that, the White House in 2008.

That's... WIN Iowa, not "do well" in Iowa.

Posted 03.26.07 01:42 PM | Comments (8)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"I'm not coming back to save the Democratic Party or destroy the Republican Party. I'm coming back to save Louisiana."

-- Ex-Sen. John Breaux (D-LA), Baton Rouge Advocate, 3/24

Posted 03.26.07 12:39 PM | Comments (6)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- No Child Left Behind Education Law Being Assailed From All Sides

Capitol Fax -- Question Of The day

Doc's Political Parlor-- Dispatches From The Legislature

Georgia Political Digest-- Status Of Key Legislation Heading Into Crossover Day

Iowa Politics-- Clinton Excited To Gain Support Of Both Vilsacks

JohnCombest.com -- Emerson Pushes To Increase Funding For Food Aid Program

NhNewslinks.com -- G.O.P. Senators Lug Weight Of War Toward '08

Quorum Report -- Immigration Bills Unlikely To Get Passed

Sayfie's Review -- Governor Banishes Obscurantism

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Blogger Day On The Hill

WisPolitics.com-- Bill Aims To Strengthen Town Lines

Posted 03.26.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

Obama The Aldermaniac

State Sen. Barack Obama's self-injection into a Chicago city council run-off isn't ordinarily a topic that earns space in the Hotline or on On Call.

But Sen. Barack Obama, the presidential candidate, gets a whole new level of scrutiny.

He's decided to help an old friend, Dorothy "The Hat" Tillman, who is described by the Chicago Sun Times as having "an iron grip on every nickel that rolls into the 3rd Ward and has pulled in the backing of virtually every black big shot in the city."

Writes a Sun-Times columnist: "Obama's campaign mailers aren't going to mention Tillman's deployment of city resources to hire her family and reward campaign contributors, nor her abject neglect of the ward." She's also a prominent supporter of slavery reparations. But she began her career in Alabama working side-by-side with Dr. Martin Luther King.

BTW: Jesse Jackson, Jr. supports Tillman's opponent, Pat Dowell, as do most of Chicago's labor unions.

Why is Obama getting intimately involved in Chicago ward politics? Loyalty. He's loyal to Tillman, who endorsed Obama in '04 when Obama opponent Blair Hull was furiously courting Chicago's black political power elite. Same reason he endorsed Richard Daley's mayoral re-election. Obama may be running a different campaign, but he's a political realist -- something that Ryan Lizza captures nicely. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.26.07 10:04 AM | Comments (3)

2008 Staff Update: Giuliani

A new addition to the communications team of ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani:

Foster Morss starts today in the Manhattan-based campaign's war room/research operation. There, he joins Tim Pearson and Kathyrn Grosso.

Morss managed the RNC's war room, considered one of the premier news monitoring operations in the political world.

Posted 03.26.07 09:41 AM | Comments (0)

The Sunday Snapshot

From Hotline's TV editor, Emily Goodin:

Iraq and the fired U.S. attorneys dominated the Sunday shows but we begin with John and Elizabeth Edwards's appearance on "60 Minutes":

E. Edwards, on if the cancer has spread to other spots: "There are a couple of hot spots, on the bone scan. In my right hip, for example. And one of the questions was whether or not to do radiation on that to reduce the size of the cancer in that location for fear that it might weaken my bone and that I might break my hip. But the consensus was that it was too small an area for that to be a risk. You know, we were on a real roller coaster."

E. Edwards, on the decision to keep campaigning: "You really have two choices here. I mean, either you push forward with the things that you were doing yesterday or you start dying. That seems to be your only two choices. If I had given up everything that my life was about, first of all, I'd let cancer win before it needed to. You know, maybe eventually it will win, but I let it win before it needed to. And I just basically start dying. I don't want to do that. I want to live. ... I want next year to look like last year, and the year after that and the year after that. And the only way to do that is to say, 'I'm going to keep on with my life.'"

More E. Edwards: "It is our intention to deny cancer any control over us, and though I know that there are people who live short lives, I feel optimistic, not because I've got rose-colored glasses on, but because I know that I have only low volume -- a small amount of cancer in my bones."

J. Edwards: "I can promise you, we don't understate or misunderstand the seriousness of this. I mean, this could kill her. And we know it. And what we choose to do is we choose to live our lives fully and with strength and optimism. We get to make that choice. And that's what we choose."

E. Edwards: "That would be my legacy, wouldn't it ... that I'd taken out this fine man from the possibility of giving a great service. I mean, I don't want that to be my legacy."

J. Edwards, on people saying he's capitalizing on this: "Here's what I would say about that. First of all, there's not a single person in America that should vote for me because Elizabeth has cancer. Not a one. If you're considering doing it, don't do it. Do not vote for us because you feel some sympathy or compassion for us. That would be an enormous mistake. The vote for the presidency is far too important for -any of those things to influence it. But I think every single candidate for president, Republican and Democratic, have lives, personal lives, that indicates something about what kind of human being they are. And I think it is a fair evaluation for America to engage in, to look at what kind of human beings each of us are and what kind of president we'd make."

Asked if he's putting work before his family, J. Edwards: "But this is not work. Work is what I did as a lawyer. This is service."

On those who question his ability to run the country while dealing with his wife's illness, J. Edwards: "All I can tell you is I know from my own life experience that I could do it. I don't have to guess about that. Second, people will be able to watch during the course of this campaign, and I ask them to watch."

More J. Edwards: "We have every reason to be optimistic right now. I believe in my heart and soul that Elizabeth is going to do well. I do believe that. She will be out there campaigning with me and separately. If you ask me today whether I'm in this campaign for the duration, the answer to that question is yes."

TOO MANY COOKS IN IRAQ'S KITCHEN?

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL): "The Senate will take a little bit different approach. It will set as a goal of the withdrawal of some of the troops, leaving troops for the purpose of training the Iraqi army for force protection which could include border patrol. And that follows the recommendation of the unanimous, bipartisan Iraq Study Commission. That, combined with a very aggressive, diplomatic effort in the region is what we're going need to have" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT): "I would like to see us come out of there, but I don't want to undermine the troops, nor do I want to act like a super-imposing general because I'm a senator in the United States Senate" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).

Iraqi Amb. Samir Sumaidaie, on what would happen if Congress sets a deadline for troops: "I don't expect them to do so. Secondly, if they did, they would live to regret it."

More: "If we set out a date now for a complete withdrawal, you can bet your bottom dollar that the terrorists are going to be waiting for that date and attacking and launching their biggest attack on civilians and the institutions of state of Iraq" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).

Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS), on if they have the votes to take the timetable out of the Iraq bill: "We have not done a whip check specifically on this upcoming vote, but I believe that we do. There are members in the Senate in both parties that are not comfortable with how things have gone in Iraq. But they understand that artificial timetables, even as goals, are a problem" ("Fox News Sunday," 3/25).

ALL ABOUT ALBERTO

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC): "The attorney general has been wounded because of his performance, not because of politics. And he is willing to come before the Senate and explain himself under oath. And I think he should. And we should allow him to tell his side of the story, ask him hard questions, not run him off because of newspaper articles. But I'm very disturbed by the way this has been handled. And there's no substitute for him coming into the Senate."

More: "He's going to have to come to the Senate and re-establish his credibility. He's going to have to prove to us that there was a legitimate reason this was poorly handled, because you can't say it was anything other than poorly handled. Nothing nefarious happened here. I'm willing to hear him out. I think he deserves to be heard out" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 3/25).

Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), on admin officials: "I want them in the open, under oath, publicly, where both Republican senators and Democratic senators can ask questions. You know, our founders devised this system of checks and balances. This administration has been used to going unchecked. The balances kicked in last November, and they're going to have to deal with that reality" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 3/25).

Graham: "The way to handle this, in my opinion, is to have a private conference, interview, with Karl Rove, Harriet Miers, and have a transcript so we know what happened" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 3/25).

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA): "Attorney General Gonzales' testimony will be a make or break situation for him. There are a lot of questions to be answered beyond credibility. There's no doubt that what has happened has had a very chilling effect on the United States attorneys across the country."

On Gonzales: "As to his independence, there's a real question that he has allied himself a little too closely with the president when the attorney general has broader responsibilities than most other Cabinet officers. ... I want to hear from him directly what he did vis-a-vis the White House, what kind of independence he showed, if any."

Specter: "If there's a confrontation here on executive privilege for the president and oversight by the Congress, it's going to take a long time to decide. The last matter took more than two years, so we'd be in the term of another president before the courts had ruled. ... I think the president is wrong when he refuses to have a transcript. If you don't have a transcript, senators are going to walk out and, in good faith, have different versions as to what occurred. ... I would vastly prefer to have the situation public because there is a great public concern here" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 3/25).

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "It would be so refreshing to bring a real prosecutor in there, someone independent to clean up the Department of Justice to restore the integrity and credibility, what that important agency needs" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 3/25).

Nelson, asked if Gonzales should resign: "Personally, I would because I think he's lost his credibility. But I think we ought to go through the procedures and hear what he says. And I don't see what all this fuss is about people coming forth and raising their hand and saying they're going tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. That's what the American people deserve, and that's what we ought to get to" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).

Hatch, on Gonzales: "He's honest, he's decent and he's honorable. But let's be honest about it, the Justice Department has bungled this attorney thing. There's no question about it. There's no excuse for it" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).

Lott: "I see no evidence that anything illegal was done or improper. As a matter of fact, it looks to me like when you look at the dates there that this discussion took place kind of after the decisions had been made" ("Fox News Sunday," 3/25).

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), on Gonzales: "He called me when I began to become involved in this and told me I didn't know my facts, I didn't know what I was doing. And it turns out he wasn't telling me the truth then either. ... I believe he should step down, and I don't like saying this. This is not my natural personality at all. But I think the nation is not well served by this. I think we need to get at the bottom of why these resignations were made, who ordered them, and what the strategy was" ("Fox News Sunday," 3/25).

HAGEL'S STILL HAGEL

Only one '08er appeared on the Sunday shows this weekend. Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) was on "This Week":

On Gonzales: "He does have a credibility problem."

More: "I don't know if he got bad advice or if he was not involved in the day-to-day management. I don't know what the problem is, but he's got a problem. You cannot have the nation's chief law enforcement officer with a cloud hanging over his credibility. ... This needs to be addressed, and I think the president makes a big mistake if he tries to make this a constitutional issue and make it a separation of powers issues. Fix the problem."

Asked if he thinks Gonzales can still be AG: "I do not, and I think the president is going to have to make a tough choice here."

Asked if the admin should send officials up to testify: "That's the way I would do it, and I think we have a very clear past record of other presidents taking that same course of action and I think we have a very clear past record of other presidents taking that same course of action. President Reagan did that on Iran-Contra. The Washington Post has a story today that highlights your picture and your episode."

ABC's Stephanopoulos: "Thanks for reminding me, senator."

Hagel: "And we were very appreciative of your selfless public service to our country, George."

On Congress' role in Iraq: "Congress is going to play a role now like we've not played before. You've already seen the House play that role. We will debate it this week in the Senate. Senator Jim Webb and I are going to introduce some legislation that will in fact have the force of law in the future involvement of our military and our country, and what conditions that future will be."

On the resolution: "It will be binding legislation, and it will be focused on deployment, redeployment, training, equipment."

On his presser saying he'd make on a decision on the future in the future: "I didn't ask all the media to come. In fact, I don't think there was one network correspondent there, except one from a cable news show. I told the people of Nebraska that I would make an announcement on a decision sometime early this year. I owed that to them. I thought about just putting out a press release ... and saying, this is what I'm going to do. Then I thought, I don't think that's right. People deserve to understand why. And I think the way to do that is just come before them. I went to Nebraska. We didn't make a big deal about it. We didn't ask people to come. We put out a one-paragraph statement. I didn't ask the party to come. My family wasn't there. It was the press who built this up. I didn't build that."

More: "I will make a decision when I think I'm ready and my family is ready. I can't control what the Nebraska people or the people of this country will do or will not do. I learned a long time ago to put my energies in the things ... that I can control. So I'm sorry if I didn't fulfill expectations of some people, but I never misled anybody on this" (ABC, 3/25).

ROUNDTABLE ROUNDUP

The "Fox News Sunday" roundtable discussed the U.S. attys story, WH '08, and cong. action on Iraq:

Fortune's Easton, on Elizabeth Edwards: "She loves the campaign trail. She thrives on it. She's said as much. I think this decision was at least as much hers as his."

The "Face the Nation" roundtable discussed the U.S. attys and WH '08:

New York Times' Brooks, on if the attys' story will effect '08: "I would say only if we have two years of partisan warfare. That's going to disgust everybody. And that's what the Democrats really have to worry about, that they had 100 hours of policy to start the legislative year. I didn't realize that would be the end of their legislation. If they're all scandal all the time, that will sicken people in both parties."

The CNN roundtable discussed cong. action on Iraq, Gonzales, and WH '08.

CNN's Bash, on Congress and Iraq: "This all could and it's very likely to stop when this gets to the Senate, because, as you know, the votes aren't there."

Dem strategist Donna Brazile: "There are millions of cancer survivors out in this country today, and they are applauding the decision by the Edwardses to keep going. Life goes on."

Ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie: "That's a decision for John Edwards and Elizabeth Edwards to make with their doctor. And no one, I don't think, frankly, has a right to second-guess it."

The "This Week" roundtable talked about WH '08, cong. action on Iraq, and Gonzales.

Posted 03.26.07 09:14 AM | Comments (0)

March 25, 2007

Romney's Campaign: Don't Believe McCain's Hype

When John McCain told reporters yesterday that his campaign's fundraising efforts had been hurt by a late start, was he artfully trying to lower expectations?

A Mitt Romney fundraiser with access to the campaign's daily fundraising tallies tells the Hotline that Romney won't raise more than $20 million -- much lower than the $30 to $35 million figure being floated about Washington by some of Romney's allies.

The fundraiser, who asked to remain anonymous in order to revisit McCain's claims, said that McCain's campaign was engaged in an elaborate game of deception in order to set Romney up. The thinking is that by artificially pumping up the amount of money Romney is expected to raise, the press will dutifully note that Romney "failed" to meet that non-realistic, externally-imposed goal. That'd be a bit of a psychic blow to the campaign.

A Romney campaign aide said last night that "McCain will be in first."

Money comes from three sources: the rolodexes of major "raisers," like Bush pioneers and rich folks; direct mail and e-mail lists; and in-person fundraisers, where major donors and fundraisers are rewarded for their work.

Who's right? Does it matter? Should anyone care?

First, keep in mind that neither side knows how much the other side has actually raised. The daily cash on hand totals are not widely distributed in either campaign. If Romney raises only $18 million, then McCain will eclipse him. If he raises in excess of $25M, McCain might now.

The only number we're getting from the McCain campaign -- unofficially, of course -- is that McCain's haul won't exceed $30M.

Maybe we can answer the questions by asking a different one: who has the most to benefit from exceeding expectations? Romney's had a rough several months, and a higher-than-expected total would let undecided Republicans and donors know that he's still alive. McCain is no longer the numerical frontrunner and has endured weeks of news stories attaching the adjective "floundering" to "campaign." If McCain tops the field by $5 million, it's a show of strength. But the media really won't buy the notion that his fundraising network, which took John Weaver and co. several years to put together, would stumble out of the gate. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.25.07 08:08 AM | Comments (13)

March 24, 2007

McCain: We Won't Meet Fundraising Goals

GRAFTON CO., NH -- Sen. John McCain said his presidential campaign would not meet its fundraising goals this quarter, and his campaign advisers acknowledged that ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney may wind up raising more.

"We're going to pay a price for it because we got a late start," McCain told reporters in New Hampshire. "We're not going to meet the goals we had." He later said he did not know whether Romney would outpace him, but his advisers did not downplay that possibility. They also did not rule out finishing first.

McCain contends that his exploratory committee's opening in December and the rush of the busy holiday season did not allow his campaign to begin fundraising in earnest until January. But once that month began, owing in part to a busy Senate schedule, McCain attended only two fundraisers and only two in February. There are twenty scheduled for all of this month, and another twenty in April.

"These are moments, none of which at the end of the day impact winning the nomination," said John Weaver, McCain's chief strategist. "We're on track to do that. Every campaign would trade places with us. We wouldn't trade places with anyone else."

Some Republicans estimate that Romney, whose network of friends, business contacts and party donors is expansive, could accumulate more than $30 or even $35 million this quarter. McCain is not likely to raise in excess of $30M, according to Republicans outside his campaign who have been given the unofficial estimate. Neither Weaver nor any other McCain aide would hazard a guess about their first quarter tally.

A Romney spokesman noted that McCain had recruited more major Bush donors than any other candidate, and possesses a large direct mail list from his earlier presidential campaigns. The Romney spokesman said that McCain was trying to artificially lower expectations.

If Romney reports a higher fundraising tally on April 15, he'll not be faulted for bragging about his strength after what his aides acknowledge was a rough start to his campaign.

Both campaigns agree that two numbers due by mid-July -- six months worth of receipts and the amount of money remaining in their accounts -- are better diagnostic indicators of their candidate's viability.

Romney, in particular, will be burdened with the expectation that he ought to keep pace with McCain and end the half-year with at least $30 to $40 million in the bank. Both campaigns worry about their high burn rates. They both pay the salaries of more than 100 full-time staff members and numerous consultants. Romney even has several field organizers in Florida, placed there when the campaign presumed that the Florida Republican Party would schedule a straw poll for the fall. They ultimately did not. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.24.07 08:48 PM | Comments (147)

Rudy's Manager Tracks McCain

BERLIN, NH -- Seen at at least three McCain events in New Hampshire today:

Jim Wieczorek, the campaign manager of Rudy Giuliani.. (He even clapped a few times.)

At one point, John Weaver ambled over and introduced himself and offered to let Wieczorek ride about the Straight Talk Express. Wieczorek politely declined.

Also: a polite video-camera toting tracker from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's campaign.

Posted 03.24.07 05:55 PM | Comments (1)

Roadshow: New Hampshire, North Of Manchester

LITTLETON, NH -- There are Republicans in New Hampshire north of Concord. Really. "As far as I know," one Republican said to McCain, "you're the only candidate who has gone past Concord. All of the other candidates think there's nothing north of Concord."

Technically, Rudy Giuliani's roadshow wandered up here and Mitt Romney summers on Lake Winnepisaukee. But most candidates confine their appearances to the vote rich region from the northernmost limits of the Concord city line, South. Only about 25 percent of the state voters live among the lakes and in the small towns among the White Mountains to the North. They tend to be more socially and economically conservative than Republicans who live in the suburbs of Massachusetts.

When voters dumped Reps. Charlie Bass and Jeb Bradley from office last November, Grafton County was one of the few to stay Republican. McCain's NH campaign has about a half dozen organizers working full-time in this region. McCain has noticed that voters up here ask him more questions about the economy than voters in Manchester. Everyone mentions the closing of the timber mills in Berlin. They haven't come back. Sen. Hillary Clinton has proposed converting paper mills into energy producing facilities that process ethanol. McCain said it "sounds like a good idea." (Wood can be a profitable source of ethanol.)

Voters up here take pride in their independence (duh), but major endorsements matter more here than they do a hundred miles to the South. It's harder to organize up here. That's why McCain's campaign is trying to recruit Laconia high school football coach Jim Fitzgerald. He's a two-term state rep. who knows how to put together a campaign.[MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.24.07 01:56 PM | Comments (1)

The Roadshow: McCain's Now Optimistic About Iraq

Littleton Republicans greeted Sen. John McCain like an old friend, and he returned the favor. He was (a), on time, and (b) full of energy. Some of his self-protective senior advisers blanch when they read news reports about how McCain, eight years older, seems slower, more hesitant, less springy. How do these reporters know? Do they measure the reach of his hand gestures and compare it to old video footage?

Regardless, McCain was spry. And he was optimistic. A reporter asked him whether he was now optimistic about the future of Iraq. "I think it's fair to say that I'm optimistic," he said. He ticked off a list of reasons why (a pacified Sadr, more clean neighborhoods, better intelligence, more cooperation between U.S. and Iraqi troops, etc). And he'll have the chance to confirm his optimism first-hand when he visits next week. He blasted House Democrats for passing "an intellectually dishonest" troop withdrawal bill that was "laden with pork." It's "the most shameful" thing he's ever seen as a Senator.

"We will win," he told the Littletown crowd. It's not a line he would have used a few months ago.

He was asked about the Iranian capture of British troops. America, he said, should be prepared to used "very stringent" measures if they're not released.

After a lengthy discussion about campaign finance reform initiated by conservative blogger Matt Lewis, McCain grew tired one of one line of questioning about public financing. When ABC's Terry Moran asked him how much he thought his campaign would cost, McCain shook his head. "I don't want to talk about... you know, I'll just talk about anything else you want, but I'm bored with this one."

Posted 03.24.07 12:13 PM | Comments (2)

March 23, 2007

The Roadshow: New Hampshire

MEREDITH, NH -- The Straight Talk Express rumbles to life tomorrow morning in a converted church parking lot about 56 miles and an $120 dollar Queen Anne's cab ride north of Manchester. Sen. John McCain is here on a make-up mission. A week ago, his progress got stuck in the snow. He'll make a day-long arc along the feeder bands of Lake Winnipesaukee (that's where Mitt Romney summers) with town hall stops in Littleton, North Conway and Plymouth.

It's not an Express. It's a Local. McCain is bringing several campaign aides from headquarters along for the trip. They're supposed to watch McCain interact with reporters and reporters interact with McCain. Save your money: he calls us "jerks" and we say "please sir, can I have another?" The A-tier reporters get personal ribbing by McCain. It's a "sign of affection."

Believe it or not, McCain is still the guy to beat in New Hampshire. Not a single reputable poll has shown him behind other Republicans. (Right, Mark Blumenthal?) It's fair to say that his nomination quest will be an exceedingly uphill slog if he doesn't win the state he won in 2000. I don't think he has to win Iowa, but I'll save those thoughts for an Iowa trip. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.23.07 06:45 PM | Comments (1)

2008 Race Rankings: Giuliani's In The Lead

The Hotline's Marc Ambinder and NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd will collaborate on race rankings until we don't.

We've got a new No. 1 this week, and it reflects several realities. For one thing, there's a deep hunger on the Republican side for a candidate who can rebrand the party after seven-plus years of President Bush. Also, the issue stuff just doesn't seem to be hurting Rudy Giuliani yet, and we can't help but think that the early predictions of his doom were overstated.

These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.

1. Rudy Giulian Last Ranking: 2

There are three distinct camps among those Republicans who don't think Giuliani will win the nomination: the McCain camp, the Huckabee camp and the Arlington camp. The McCain camp believes questions about Giuliani's business practices and his personal character will disqualify him, and that his liberal positions on issues will be the coup de grace. The MSM is mostly in this camp. The Huckabee camp believes Giuliani is objectively too liberal to be the nominee and will not vote for him. The Arlington camp doesn't know whether Giuliani will be elected but worries -- for the sake of its organizations' bottom lines -- how a social liberal would affect the power and influence of organized conservative interests. If the election were held tomorrow, Giuliani would win. He doesn't have McCain's organizational strength, money, or endorsements, but he has a solid and growing lead in national polls. And so far, he's repelled some fairly devastating attacks (like the notion that he does not speak to his son).
Fundraising projection: $15 million, +/- $3 million. Fundraising ranking: 3.

2. John McCain Last Ranking: 1

Giuliani's rise does not reflect any diminished capacity on Sen. McCain's part. He still has the biggest and best campaign, the most talented operatives, a great stump manner (check out those second day bus tour clips) and the best chance to survive the gauntlet laid down by the Republican base. Still, early polls don't mean too much, but it's hard for us to call McCain the front-runner any longer when 80 percent of the voting base routinely chooses someone else. Real skepticism is growing among the media too. Do not for a moment believe we are downgrading the chances of McCain's surviving, recovering, and ultimately thriving. But we can't ignore the voices of an already-fairly engaged electorate. Fundraising projection: $20 million, +/- $5 million. Fundraising ranking: 2. Almanac Profile

3. Mitt Romney

Romney's Florida gaffe underscores his political problems. It's not that Romney isn't smart -- he is. It's not that he isn't a gifted politician -- he is. It's not that his advisers aren't smart -- they are. But if Romney is a natural presidential type, he doesn't seem to be a natural politician. He -- and the guy does write a lot of his own speeches -- overthinks. He tries to be someone, to say something, to leave a political impression, rather than simply showing up and talking to his audience, not at them. Alienating South Florida Cuban-American Republicans has real electoral consequences. Winning candidates cannot, and mostly do not -- make these mistakes. Fundraising projection: $25 million, +/- $5 million. Fundraising ranking: 1. Remember, Romney has the bigger initial "friends of" Rolodex, including Bainiacs, Bostonians, Utahns and fellow Mormons. Oh, and don't forget his own bank account.

Read the rest of our 2008 race rankings.

Posted 03.23.07 05:40 PM | Comments (1)

This Week On Hotline TV: Either You're In, Or You're Out

... Sometimes in the same news cycle. Political fame may be fleeting, but there's always opportunity to score some style points. Check it out!

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 03.23.07 05:05 PM | Comments (2)

Capitol Fax: From The Windy City To The WH Race

From Rich Miller of Capitol Fax, the IL affiliate of our Hotline Political Network:

Sen. Barack Obama "is set to endorse the always controversial" 3rd Ward Chicago Ald. Dorothy Tillman (D) in her runoff against Pat Dowell (I).

"Almost every black political, religious and civil rights leader in the city is lending support to Tillman" -- except Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D). Jackson "tried to downplay the fact that this is the first time he and Obama have ever opposed each other in a local race."

Jackson says he understands why Sen. Obama would back Tillman. The alderman was one of Obama's earliest supporters in his U.S. Senate bid. But others are wondering how Obama's decision to back such a die-hard proponent of slavery reparations will play in Iowa and New Hampshire. They may have a point.

Read all of Miller's piece here.

Posted 03.23.07 01:37 PM | Comments (1)

Overlooked?

Ex-VP Dan Quayle.

Discuss.

Posted 03.23.07 01:19 PM | Comments (14)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"When we're done Florida will be relevant."

-- FL state Sen. Jeremy Ring (D), on making FL matter in a WH race, AP, 3/22

Posted 03.23.07 12:47 PM | Comments (4)

AP: Vilsack To Endorse HRC

The AP is reporting that former candidate and ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack will endorse Hillary Clinton in IA on 3/26. The campaign also issued a press released saying Clinton would make a "major announcement" at a TBA location in Des Moines and would be "joined by special guests."

Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton, in a major political coup, captured the endorsement of former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who recently abandoned his own presidential bid, officials told The Associated Press on Friday.

Vilsack and his wife, Christie, planned to make the endorsement on Monday when the New York senator will be in the state, the officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because of the planned formal statement next week.

Clinton spokesman Mark Daley would not confirm Vilsack's endorsement, but did say the campaign had a major announcement planned for Monday in Des Moines.

Posted 03.23.07 11:57 AM | Comments (2)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- McCain Picks State Chairmen For Presidential Campaign

Capitol Fax -- Morning Shorts

Doc's Political Parlor-- New Dates for “It’s a Thick Book”

Georgia Political Digest-- State Will Fund PeachCare Despite Dispute

Iowa Politics-- Edwards Backers Expect Iowa Support To Remain Strong

JohnCombest.com -- Skelton Backs Timetable

NhNewslinks.com -- Lynch Makes Move On Funding For Eucation

Quorum Report -- Texas 6-Step For Illegal Migrants?

Sayfie's Review -- Crist Calls For Use Of Paper Ballots In Early Voting

Tennessee Politics Blog-- TN Primary Move-Up Clears House

WisPolitics.com-- Romney Brings Presidential Campaign To Milwaukee

Posted 03.23.07 11:20 AM | Comments (0)

About That SC Straw Poll....

About that straw poll..

To be clear, the sponsoring organization was not the state's official College Republican group.

In fact, Vic Bailey, Jr. the chairman of the official, duly certified and authorized state college Republican group in SC, is a paid field rep for the McCain campaign.

A McCain ally calls the SC Colleagiate Republican Organization a "rump group" for Romney supporters who split away from the formal College GOP organization. But why did State Sen. John Courson, a McCain endorser, speak at their convention? We're told he didn't know enough about the group. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.23.07 10:51 AM | Comments (1)

Rudy Memo: Strong And Growing

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's directror of strategy sent top supporters a memo 3/22 crowing about a "notable" growth in support for Giuliani since he declared on 2/5.

Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.

Other key bullet points:

Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.

Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.

We've seen some equivocal polling. But our sense is that what Seaborn claim is broadly correct. Giuliani's opponents now say that the mayor's character issues will soften him up and that his cultural liberalism will be the coup de grace. Read the entire memo after the jump.

Growth in Mayor Giuliani’s Ballot Strength

In early 2007, some people said that Mayor Giuliani would not run for President. On February 5th, Mayor Giuliani filed his FEC paperwork and legally declared himself a candidate for the Presidency. He ended this momentous day with an appearance on Hannity & Colmes.

Since the Mayor made his intention to run for President clear, we have seen notable growth in support for our campaign. Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.

The Mayor is Better Known to Conservatives than Some will Acknowledge

Many columnists and pundits question what will happen when Republicans “find out about the Mayor’s views on social issues.” Many of these stories are being generated by the same people that speculated that Mayor Giuliani would never run for President. Over the course of the last month, that question has been dispelled.
A recent Newsweek poll shows Mayor Giuliani with a 25-point lead among Republican and Republican leaning voters and a 30-point lead among social conservatives. Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.

Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.

According to recent analysis by Gallup Poll, Mayor Giuliani receives 47% of the votes among those that attend church “nearly weekly or monthly,” leading his nearest opponent by 28-points. Mayor Giuliani’s ballot share decreases to 31% among those that “attended church weekly” - yet he maintains a 7-point lead over his nearest opponent.

After reviewing other data, I have found similar evidence.

About half of Republican primary voters consider themselves to be “very conservative.” Among those “very conservative” Republican voters, Mayor Giuliani generally maintains a lead.

Another interesting point, about two-thirds of “very conservative” Republican primary voters consider Mayor Giuliani to be a moderate or a liberal. Yet even with these voters, Mayor Giuliani holds a 5-point lead over his nearest competitor.

The fact is - most Republicans believe that Mayor Giuliani is a social moderate or liberal and Mayor Giuliani leads all major candidates in this race (even among “very conservative” Republicans).

There are, of course, some voters that will never vote for Mayor Giuliani, and we know that we will see polls tighten. But the “when voters find out about Rudy’s record the sky will fall” notion is a myth.

Rudy’s positions and record are already known among most Republican primary voters and are factored in to the current polling.

What We Can Expect

Discrediting the commitment of the Mayor to run for President did not work. Telling Republicans that the Mayor’s positions on issues are unacceptable to primary voters does not work either.

As we have seen the next line of attack is aimed at discrediting the Mayor’s character. This attack – while not surprising – should be treated for what it is - cheap and political.

We expect polls to tighten as we move in to spring – such is the nature of the political process. While we are realistic about our expectations going forward, we are also pleased with where we are today and are confident our current support among Republican primary voters is strong.

Posted 03.23.07 10:46 AM | Comments (2)

Don't Worry, Denver: AFL-CIO's Not Going To Ruin The Party

This headline is scary: AFL-CIO may ask Dems to move convention.

The AFL-CIO, angry about Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter's veto of a pro-union bill, may recommend that the Democratic Party move its 2008 convention from Denver. The bill would have made it easier to set up all-union workplaces. "The attention of the American people will be focused on Denver and the state of Colorado as they prepare to host the 2008 Democratic National Convention," the labor federation's executive council said in a resolution passed during their winter meeting in Las Vegas. "Union members and working people will make up more than a quarter of the delegates to the Denver convention.

It's true that all of the unions are very upset with Ritter -- but some feel that there are ways, other than threatening to move the convention, to deal with Ritter and the situation in Colorado. Labor invested a great deal into electing Ritter. Many unions feel that he reneged on an explicit campaign promise and that that has to be dealt with. But some feel this threat affects not just Ritter but the Democrats in the legislature who supported labor and union members in the state. As one labor operative put it, "look the burden is on Ritter. He needs to take this as a serious wake-up call that he has big problems with labor and that he needs to come to the table prepared "

Privately, senior labor officials have re-assured Denver's host committee that it shouldn't read too much into the AFl-CIO's collective expression of disappointment. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.23.07 10:45 AM | Comments (1)

YouTube's Political Video Of The Day

Congrats to Rep. Eric Cantor (R), whose video bashing Dems on Iraq was selected as YouTube's political video of the day.

Posted 03.23.07 10:43 AM | Comments (6)

Inbox, Outbox 3/23

We've learned that Rudy Giuliani plans to appear, soonish, on CBN's The David Brody Show. Ok, CBN doesn't have the David Brody show, but.. honestly, aside from the faith healing, he's the best thing to happen to the 700 Club in a while.

As we kind of knew they would, the Nevada GOP now wants to hold their caucus on Jan. 19 along with the Dems. It makes sense: it won't cost them much, and it'll give them a much higher profile, and the only Nevada Republicans who really care about delegates are... the potential delegeates themselves. Off the top of our heads, I'd say McCain and Romney have an edge in NV.

Kudos to the USA Today and a few other newspapers for daring to report that not everyone was comfortable watching Sen. Edwards promise to continue his campaign in spite of his wife's serious cancer relapse.

Ben Smith is a friend and we admire his guts, honesty and stick-to-itiveness. Don't let yesterday's mistake distract you from honestly appraising his body of work, which is almost entirely top-notch and which makes him one of the best political reporters in the business. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 03.23.07 09:35 AM | Comments (2)

On The Download: Democratic Internet Insiders Poll

Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

On The Download asked 22 of some of the best Democratic Internet strategists what they thought of the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates' Web sites. Check the Republican Internet Insiders Poll here.

Though this survey is not at all scientific, here's a quick note on methodology: Of the 22 strategists polled, 15 were unaffiliated and 7 worked for a WH '08 campaigns in some capacity. Therefore, only answers from unaffiliated Internet Insiders were counted in the first question. Also, respondants were polled on Rudy Giuliani's former Web site design -- not the new Web site that launched this week.

Question 1: Which Democratic WH '08 candidate has the most effective Web site?
BarackObama.com -- 5 votes:
"Obama's social network is the bomb... Obama's presentation is wired and Hillary's is very tired."
"Obama has effectively used video to portray himself as a transformational candidate. The social networking aspect of his site captures one of the things Howard Dean used so effectively: giving grass roots and first time organizers a sense over ownership over aspects of the campaign."
"Most effective Democratic site is Obama – best campaign logo in Presidential history, plenty of opportunities to engage visitors and has video available on homepage."
"Obama's website projects momentum. Hillary's projects 'establishment.'"

JohnEdwards.com -- 5 votes:
"Edwards is the only candidate website that's focused outwards in their content creation, and not just creating an walled garden for supporters."
"Win or lose, most candidates fold their websites after each election cycle. After his loss, Edwards intelligently kept a robust site up, became the first to have regular video and audio conversations, and the first to embrace mobile communication. Hillary has the most sophisticated tools and Obama and Richardson have great sites, but Edwards still has the edge."
"All the candidate sites look the same, and all carry similar functionality. Edwards has fun tools: Twitter is oh-so-hot right now, and he's got a Mac OS X widget (even if it's ugly)."

HillaryClinton.com -- 2 votes:
"There were several sites with advanced advocacy and social networking capabilities. Clinton has the edge due to its usability and not assuming everyone understands online social networking. Also has a strong mix of action and issue information."
"Clinton's web site has most tools, best interface, and best navigation to easily find relevant information about the candidate. Some weakness on video and multimedia, but a site built f