March 23, 2007
2008 Race Rankings: Giuliani's In The Lead
The Hotline's Marc Ambinder and NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd will collaborate on race rankings until we don't.
We've got a new No. 1 this week, and it reflects several realities. For one thing, there's a deep hunger on the Republican side for a candidate who can rebrand the party after seven-plus years of President Bush. Also, the issue stuff just doesn't seem to be hurting Rudy Giuliani yet, and we can't help but think that the early predictions of his doom were overstated.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.
1. Rudy Giulian Last Ranking: 2
There are three distinct camps among those Republicans who don't think Giuliani will win the nomination: the McCain camp, the Huckabee camp and the Arlington camp. The McCain camp believes questions about Giuliani's business practices and his personal character will disqualify him, and that his liberal positions on issues will be the coup de grace. The MSM is mostly in this camp. The Huckabee camp believes Giuliani is objectively too liberal to be the nominee and will not vote for him. The Arlington camp doesn't know whether Giuliani will be elected but worries -- for the sake of its organizations' bottom lines -- how a social liberal would affect the power and influence of organized conservative interests. If the election were held tomorrow, Giuliani would win. He doesn't have McCain's organizational strength, money, or endorsements, but he has a solid and growing lead in national polls. And so far, he's repelled some fairly devastating attacks (like the notion that he does not speak to his son).
Fundraising projection: $15 million, +/- $3 million. Fundraising ranking: 3.
2. John McCain Last Ranking: 1
Giuliani's rise does not reflect any diminished capacity on Sen. McCain's part. He still has the biggest and best campaign, the most talented operatives, a great stump manner (check out those second day bus tour clips) and the best chance to survive the gauntlet laid down by the Republican base. Still, early polls don't mean too much, but it's hard for us to call McCain the front-runner any longer when 80 percent of the voting base routinely chooses someone else. Real skepticism is growing among the media too. Do not for a moment believe we are downgrading the chances of McCain's surviving, recovering, and ultimately thriving. But we can't ignore the voices of an already-fairly engaged electorate. Fundraising projection: $20 million, +/- $5 million. Fundraising ranking: 2. Almanac Profile
3. Mitt Romney
Romney's Florida gaffe underscores his political problems. It's not that Romney isn't smart -- he is. It's not that he isn't a gifted politician -- he is. It's not that his advisers aren't smart -- they are. But if Romney is a natural presidential type, he doesn't seem to be a natural politician. He -- and the guy does write a lot of his own speeches -- overthinks. He tries to be someone, to say something, to leave a political impression, rather than simply showing up and talking to his audience, not at them. Alienating South Florida Cuban-American Republicans has real electoral consequences. Winning candidates cannot, and mostly do not -- make these mistakes. Fundraising projection: $25 million, +/- $5 million. Fundraising ranking: 1. Remember, Romney has the bigger initial "friends of" Rolodex, including Bainiacs, Bostonians, Utahns and fellow Mormons. Oh, and don't forget his own bank account.
Read the rest of our 2008 race rankings.
Posted at 05:40 PM
Comments
AKRON - The Ohio State basketball game was the lone nail biter at the Summit County Republicans' presidential straw poll, which Rudy Giuliani won with 30.9 percent.
The former New York City mayor bested Arizona Sen. John McCain, who got 25.8 percent of the more than 800 paper ballots cast last night.
Fred Thompson, a former senator from Tennessee, placed a surprising third with 12.1 percent. Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, took 8.6 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, with 8.2 percent.
na | 03.25.07 03:04 PM
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