March 08, 2007
The '08 Money Chase; An Update
A dirty little secret: the amount of money raised by presidential candidates in the first quarter of 2007 carries no inherent implication for their nomination prospects.
And yet -- us political insiders will obsess about little else until we get the numbers. For a variety of reasons, quarter 2 matters more than quarter 1.
But we'll open our notebooks now because it's just plain fun.
1. We're fairly certain that Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) raised $12 million through the first of March. Banked means banked; pledges don't qualify. If that figure is correct, and we have reason to believe that it is, Obama will probably amass northwards of $18 million this quarter, and we'll bet that he banks a little more than $13 million. Can Obama build a mid-to-small donor base in time to reap its rewards by the end of the 2nd quarter? Unclear.
2. Expect Sen. Hillary Clinton to transfer $11 million from her Senate campaign account into her presidential account. Informed donor-types believe that she's be able to raise more than $20 million in "new money," giving her a grand total of more than $32 million. One caveat: a not-small percentage of the new money has been shunted to Clinton's general election account and can't be used for the primaries. So expect Clinton to have roughly $16-20M cash on hand when she reports. How much Clinton raises in the second quarter will determine how large her fundraising network really is. Plenty of donors are hedging their bets.
3. Equivocal signs from Sen. John Edwards's camp. But a $12-15M quarter is reasonable. His second quarter matters more than his first quarter. He probably needs to raise just as much. His fundraising drop-off from Q1 to Q2 in 2003 hurt his campaign more than some of his advisers care to admit.
Expect Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Chris Dodd to do just fine.
Republican donors talk less, so it's harder to gauge the pace of fundraising for the GOP candidates.
It's very possible that ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney outraises or almost outraises Sen. John McCain this quarter. Romney's forest of low-hanging fruits is enormous: RGA, personal connections, Olympics, Mormons (Realistic to say he'll get $7M from members of the LDS church this quarter?), Bain connections, some Bush '43 fundraisers, Mass tech companies, Harvard, Harvard, etc. We hear that Romney finance types are actually asking some of their major fundraisers to slow down a little; their goal is to surprise the field in the second quarter, more so than on 4/15.
McCain's fundraising is proceeding well; he's raising money from a different donor base than in '00, and there are bound to be some thorny patches. But no one from his campaign evinces doubt that he'll be in the top two.
Ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani will probably raise more than $10 million. His second quarter is very important.
Of the rest of the field, Sen. Sam Brownback may have a surprisingly good quarter. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted at 02:39 PM
Comments
"We're fairly certain that Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) raised $12 million through the first of March. Banked means banked; pledges don't qualify. About half has come from online donations."
Upon what are you basing this "fact"? Are you just assuming or is there concrete evidence to back up your claims?
William in St Paul | 03.08.07 03:48 PM
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Money has ruined politics in the United States. The fact that you are even posting this is disgusting.
Why the focus on "money"? Because the networks want to focus on money, because they are the ones who will be receiving it.
What a bunch of propaganda. Which candidates have the best ideas? Oh yeah, that's right. Without money, they won't be able to showcase those ideas.
But, I shouldn't blame money. Let's blame the ones who demand unjustifiable amounts of cash in order to air a 30-second ad: the media companies.
ST | 03.08.07 04:37 PM
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What happens to HRC's general fund if she doesn't get the nomination? Does she transfer it to her 2012 senatorial reelection fund? It all seems very sleazy.
KCinDC | 03.08.07 11:43 PM
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OF Romney:
"(Realistic to say he'll get $7M from members of the LDS church this quarter?)"
WHere do you get that, and why does it matter? Do you have access to LDS membership records? Any speculation on figures Barak donations from African Americans?
If you're just speculating, then give us an idea of your reasons, or leave off the "great Mormon-Romney conspiracy" subliminal messages out of your updates.
Jeff Fuller | 03.10.07 08:31 AM
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KCinDC:
FEC told me Hillary must return general-election contributions (max individual contribution for general election is $2,300 in 2007-08, same as max for primaries)if she does not win nomination.
The flip side is this: If she, say, locks up Dem nomination on Feb 5, she can spend the next 10 months hitting up new donors for $4,600 (2 X $2,300) and earlier donors for the difference between $4,600 and pre-Feb 5 donations. If John Kerry could raise $235 million before Dem Natl Convention (July 2004) based on a maximum individual donation of $2,000, what do you think the upside is for Billary in 2007-08 based on a max of $4,600? Half a billion dollars seems way too low, assuming, of course, that she wins nomination.
ddickson | 03.11.07 03:50 AM
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zdsds
Ali_Milad | 08.13.08 02:02 PM
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