March 30, 2007
The 1st Quarter: Final Predictions: UPDATED
Straight to the point: here are our final predictions, based on reporting with key campaign figures and donors. These figures represent totals -- money raised for both the primary AND the general election accounts.
Yes -- this means that most candidates will be well under the expectations set for them by the media (us included).
Sen. Hillary Clinton will raise between $23M and $30M.
Sen. John McCain will raise between $18M and $22M.
Sen. Barack Obama will raise between $18M and $24M.
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney will raise between $19M and $21M. ** Romney is not raising general election money yet.
Ex-Sen. John Edwards will raise between $13M and $17M.
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will raise between $12M and $15M.
These figures do not include transfers from other accounts or from the final quarter of '06.
Yes, we're saying that Sen. Obama could outraise HRC.
Burn rates are more difficult to forecast. If Sen. Hillary Clinton winds up with about $16M in the bank, that would track our expectations. Sen. Obama would impress us if he kept about $10-12M. Sen. McCain would need to keep around $15M. Gov. Mitt Romney should have more than $10M in the bank. Edwards and Giuliani will have less.
Forget aggregate raising and spending: of most importance to political journalists and citizens everwhere are the line item disbursements. Only by picking through the FEC data can you get a feel for how these campaigns are actually spending their money. Some questions that we'll try to answer in mid-April include:
1. How much did Romney spend for his early TV ads? How much did Alex Castellanos keep? How much did Romney pay to staff field operatives in Florida?
2. Who has the biggest Iowa / NH / SC staffs?
3. Has any campaign deferred payment to "consultants" in order to keep their overall staff levels in check? Has any campaign "asked" consultants not to take a salary until the second quarter in order to deflate their overall burn rate?
4. Of what Sen. Clinton and the others raise, how much was shunted into a general election account lockbox and is therefore untouchable in the primary?
5. Who's paid the most for lawyers and legal compliance?
6. Who's paid the most per campaign? If it's not the campaign manager, there's a backstory...
7. How much did the two refurbished Straight Talk Express busses cost the McCain campaign?
8. Who paid the most for their websites and internet consulting teams?
9. Who has polled?
10. How many "endorsers" are on retainer?
The only really interesting question we'll answer from the contribution ledger is to discover which Dem donors are doubling or tripling down. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted at 09:19 AM
Comments
Your Hillary Clinton prediction is on the low side. I predict she'll raise between $35M-$40M.
Jacob | 03.30.07 09:50 AM
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Eventually its going to come down to electability and not the $$$ in the kitty for each party. Once the nominees are decided they will easily raise millions needed for general irrespective of who he/she is.
Matthew | 03.30.07 12:09 PM
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jacob,
Do you work for the Obama campaign? All about expectations....
Justin | 03.30.07 02:57 PM
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I'm fairly interested in how this turns out. I think Edwards will disappoint, along with a few candidates. I'm wondering what the numbers of donors will turn out to be.
Jeremy | 03.30.07 07:04 PM
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Forbes was the richest and look what happened to him. It'substence not money, I put my money on Edwards...
tony sacco | 03.31.07 12:10 AM
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Someone working for the Obama campaign would be downplaying Obama's third quarter expectations at this point, not suggesting that he could out raise Clinton.
Great article. It's especially interesting to see the list of valuable information that can be drawn from line item disbursements. I look forward to seeing the answers to those questions!
Jesse Pearlman Karlsberg | 03.31.07 12:25 AM
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uh, if it's all about expectations, wouldn't it be more logical to claim the piece works for Clinton? If the piece understates Clinton's fundraising, doesn't that work for her if she comes in with 30 or 40 million? Just asking.
Ward | 03.31.07 03:19 PM
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