April 30, 2007

Inbox, Outbox, 4/30

The latest Charlie Cook/RT Strategies poll shows a statistically significant narrowing of Hlilary Clinton's lead, and decline in Rudy Giuliani's margin over John McCain.

Barack Obama released more than a dozen South Carolina endorsement today, including Phil Noble, the pres of the SC branch of the DLC, ex-Senate candidate Inez Tennenbaum, and ex-SC Dem chair Dick Harpootlian. Remember that Mr. Harpootlian was a fan of Mark Warner's before it was cool to be a fan of Mark Warner's.

Newt Gingrich and Chuck Hagel are two-non candidates, and yet they were the first Republicans to attend an executive meeting of the powerful Service Employees International Union today.

Here's a balanced look at Rudy and gays.

Posted 04.30.07 04:51 PM | Comments (3)

Today On Hotline TV: Dear John... (And Mike)

By the time we get your letter, will Renzi be gone? And when will Bloomberg just cut the coyness already? All this and more in this week's mailbag...

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 04.30.07 03:15 PM | Comments (0)

Joe Erwin for Governor?

ORANGEBURG, SC -- Outgoing SC Chair Joe Erwin was peppered with praise at the Dems' dinner. One of the most interesting accolades: On a tribute video, played at the dinner, Chris Dodd noted that Erwin would make a “great Governor” [NORA McALVANAH].

Posted 04.30.07 01:16 PM | Comments (4)

Ford Focus

ORANGEBURG, SC -- A day after their debate, the Dem candidates gathered at the Columbia Convention center ballroom on Friday night for the party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner. The candidates were placed strategically at separate tables, and entered the dinner -- entourage in tow -- at separate times. Hillary Clinton entered the dinner with the largest throng of cameras and reporters, who eventually thinned out as she ate.

She chewed her chicken, as she does everything else, meticulously. Mouth closed, bite by bite, Clinton had trouble making her way through her meal, as she was interrupted by diners. She called someone’s mom on a cell phone, she posed for pictures, and she shook hands. On the other side of the room, Bill Richardson sat with his arms crossed, starring over at the crowd gathering around Clinton.

Harold Ford Jr. was the keynote speaker for the dinner, where he gave a rousing speech on the strength of the Dems' ‘08 field. What he choose to highlight about each candidate served as a telling assessment of the field. He called Joe Biden a great diplomat and said that if GOPers want Hillary, “they must not be very smart.” Ford said Dodd had a “great understanding of how markets work;” and noted that Richardson” supports guns like me. “

Interestingly, he didn’t mention Barack Obama and John Edwards directly --although he briefly mentioned them later at the end of his speech [NORA McALVANAH].

Posted 04.30.07 01:13 PM | Comments (7)

All Eyes On The Fish Fry

Some more round-up from the Hotline's Nora McAlvanah, in SC over the weekend: Amidst a crowd clutching fried whiting on white bread, boxed wine in plastic cups, and cans of Budweiser-- Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson made their way to a small stage. The candidates, like many before them, were getting ready to address Rep. Jim Clyburn's annual fish-fry.

Part street party and part political rally, the event was started in '92 by Clyburn for Dems who couldn't afford tickets to the party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner held earlier in the evening.

“I have been all over the world, I’ve been to all kinds of political events,” Clinton yelled to the crowd, her voice slightly hoarse, “I can honestly say I’ve never seen anything like Jim Clyburn’s fish fry in the world.”

This year, in particular, Clyburn’s fish-fry was something to see. Over 2,000 people packed themselves into a parking garage in downtown Columbia in hopes of getting a glimpse of the candidates. The press crowded themselves onto risers just to watch the people watch the candidates.

But for all the hoopla, the event has retained its original purpose: it’s a community meet-up, a street-fair, an exercise in political access. It’s loud, it’s hot and it’s free.

Well aware of the spectacle, the candidates tried to bring a little something extra. Edwards arrived with a high school drum line to escort him into the show, Obama took off his jacket and rolled up his sleeves, Biden virtually closed up the event, shaking hands till 11:00 p.m.

The mood was informal and collegial, with the candidates clapping for each other as they addressed the crowd. Biden spoke first and was notably brief. “I love all these folks I'm running with, but I'm coming for every one of you. I ain't giving up on any of you.” Like Biden, Dodd kept his remarks short and sweet.

Richardson talked about the importance of education, and said, "Let's also not forget the genocide in Darfur." Edwards then spoke about the Civil Rights movement. Momentum building, Clyburn introduced Clinton and then Obama, who both took bites from their stumps.

Off to the side, children wove between their parents. Sitting in a folding chair a grandmother cradled an infant. Her daughter, she said, was off trying to get a picture of Obama on her cell phone.

Posted 04.30.07 01:10 PM | Comments (0)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"George Tenet will have to explain why he waited this long to speak out and why he took the Medal of Freedom."

-- Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), "Late Edition," CNN, 4/29

Posted 04.30.07 12:46 PM | Comments (0)

Has Giuliani Really Flip-Flopped On Gay Rights?

Short answer: Maybe.

Ryan Sager is the author of a very admiring, very intelligent book about Republicans, and it silently argues for a Giuliani nomination. One can read the disappointment -- discovering a deity is human, almost -- in his choice of adjective. He uses the word "startling." Here's the rub:

On a February 2004 edition of Fox News's "The O'Reilly Factor," Mr. Giuliani told Bill O'Reilly, when asked if he supported gay marriage, "I'm in favor of … civil unions." He also said, "Marriage should be reserved for a man and a woman."

Asked by Mr. O'Reilly in the interview how he would respond to gay Americans who said being denied access to the institution of marriage violated their rights, Mr. Giuliani said: "That's why you have civil partnerships. So now you have a civil partnership, domestic partnership, civil union, whatever you want to call it, and that takes care of the imbalance, the discrimination, which we shouldn't have."

The charitable explanation is that Giuliani was confused in 2004. Civil unions, you'll recall, barely existed when Giuliani left the mayoralty. The government of Vermont coined the term to refer to a marriage-equivalent arrangement tasked to the state (and Gov.Howard Dean) to create. Actually, the court gave the government two options: marriage, or something like marriage but not called marriage. So -- "Civil Unions" went into effect in mid-2000.

Giuliani had no occasion to consider the merits of civil unions. As mayor he signed domestic partnerships into law. These grant to couples most of the same rights conferred upon married couples in a particular jurisidction. Of course, there are many rights that New York State confers on married couples -- rights Giuliani could not extend to gays. And gay couples do not find their unions recognized, sanctioned or in any way affirmed by federal law.

What's the difference between civil unions and domestic partnerships? Well, civil unions refer to the specific arrangements created in Vermont and elsewhere, like in Connecticut. Domestic parternship laws belong to a much broader class and can confer many fewer rights. They are not specially assigned to gay people, although most partnership laws were passed for the benefit of gay people. Interestingly, though, the words that the Vermont Supreme Court used to refer to the marriage-like option it gave to the state: "domestic partnerships." So -- basically the same thing.

Maybe in 2004, Giuliani was refering to civil unions that were marriage-lite,instead of marriage-like. He seems to object to New Hampshire's law because it is marriage under a different name -- "spousal unions" in this case.

USA Today picks up on the official Giuliani campaign website pronouncement:

Rudy Giuliani believes marriage is between a man and a woman. He does not -- and has never -- supported gay marriage. But he believes in equal rights under law for all Americans. That's why he supports domestic partnerships that provide stability for committed partners in important legal and personal matters, while preserving the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman.

That's a terribly pregnant statement. One can read the "never" parenthetical as a "perish-the-thought" aside. But legitimately, many Giuliani opponents assume he has favored gay marriage. He has not and does not. The paragraph does not mention gay people, and technically, as mentioned, there is no need for such partnerships to be for gay couples. But, really, people aren't dense. They understand what this means.

Giuliani likes gay people. He bunked with a domestically partnered man in the months after a divorce and presumably came to the view that the love between those two men was a good thing. His opponents, eager to paint him as gay-friendly (and one can, again, potentially question the ethics of that), have reams of direct evidence that Giuliani is comfortable with the notion that gay people are fledged members of society and ought not to be shunned, or suffer from job discrimination, or be able to be fired because they are gay.

Has Giuliani decided to pick on gay people in order to pander to those religious conservatives who strongly object to the notion that gay people are normal and should be welcomed in society?

The follow up questions for Mr. Giuliani: -- what rights should straight people have that gay people shouldn't? How much lighter do civil unions have to get before Giuliani believes they can be applied to gay people?

Perhaps Giuliani's staff didn't realize that their boss was contradicting himself. Or maybe they believe that, because he could never contradict himself, the O'Reilly transcript is wrong. Or maybe Giuliani has, over the past three years, engaged in a bit of silent soul searching on the issue of whether gay people should benefit from the joys and privileges of the union he now shares with Judith Guiliani.

Giuliani will be asked to talk about gay rights again. His answer(s) may answer some of these questions. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 04.30.07 12:13 PM | Comments (6)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Invisible border wall nearing reality

Capitol Fax-- More trouble for the GRT

Colorado Pols-- Monday Open Thread

Doc's Political Parlor-- Jeffco corruption not creating outrage

Georgia Political Digest-- Follow the money

Iowa Politics-- Senate approves incentives to lure Google

JohnCombest.com -- Leaked Obama memo: caution regarding Clay, Carnahan campaign roles

NhNewslinks.com -- Delegation urges Lynch to upgrade power transmission lines

Quorum Report -- House to consider Indian casinos bill

Sayfie's Review -- Lawmakers have a lengthy to-do list

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Thompson rally in Cookeville draws 300

WisPolitics.com-- Animal disease study lab opposed in Dunn

Posted 04.30.07 11:15 AM | Comments (0)

April 27, 2007

The Day In Politics

Obama spokesman Bill Burton talks. Ben Smith of the Politico listens.

This man is the one Kucinich supporter we saw.

John and Cindy McCain.

Posted 04.27.07 03:26 PM | Comments (2)

DNC: No Way We'll Sanction June Debate

Sen. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama won't commit to the first Democratic debate in New Hampshire in early June.

Their excuse: the debate isn't party-sanctioned.

Last night, we asked DNC executive director Tom McMahon if there was any way the party would endorse the New Hampshire debate?

"Our debates start in July."

Period?

"Yes."

So -- barring a miracle, don't expect to see Clinton or Obama in New Hampshire.

Posted 04.27.07 02:35 PM | Comments (3)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"A child conceived last night would be a month old before the people of South Carolina got to vote in their primary."

-- CBS's Jeff Greenfield, "Early Show," 4/27

Posted 04.27.07 12:42 PM | Comments (2)

Clinton, Edwards, Obama Join Pentecost '07 Forum

From an e-mail:

I have some very exciting news to share – presidential contenders Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama will be joining us at Pentecost 2007: Taking the Vision to the Streets, June 3-6 in Washington, D.C.!

Our nationally televised presidential candidates forum will be the first to focus exclusively on faith, values, and poverty. We'll be asking candidates the important questions – and you can be there in person.

Register for Pentecost today, and you'll be guaranteed a seat as Clinton, Edwards, and Obama discuss the issues that matter most to you.

Seating will be limited - but if you register right now, we'll make sure you get a chance to see the presidential candidates live and in person. After May 4, registration costs will go up, housing may be full, and we may run out of space at the forum.

You won't want to miss the presidential candidates forum or the rest of Pentecost 2007, which will be packed with captivating speakers, inspiring worship, prophetic advocacy, and hands-on training. Speakers confirmed so far include Brian McLaren, Shane Claiborne, Rev. Freddie Haynes, Rev. Sam Rodriguez, Marshall Ganz, Jennifer Kottler, Peggy Flanagan, Gary Haugen, Romal Tune, Adam Taylor, and many more. Both Republican and Democratic leaders will join us for our Capitol Hill reception on Tuesday night.

Click here to learn more and register for Pentecost 2007 – where we'll take the vision to the streets!

Since candidates aren't doing bipartisan events at this point, we're planning to invite Republican candidates to a similar forum later this year. Don't miss this opportunity to be a part of history in the making, as we challenge presidential aspirants and other political leaders – Republicans and Democrats alike – to put poverty at the top of the national agenda.

I hope to see you there.

Blessings,

Jim Wallis

Posted 04.27.07 12:06 PM | Comments (4)

South Carolina Primary Might Be State-Funded

Sen. John McCain joked yesterday that South Carolina Republican Party chairman Katon Dawson "extorted" $25,000 from his presidential campaign. Technically, that's the price of entry. The state pays for its own primary. Or it did.

This week, the South Carolina state senate approved a $7.2B budget for fiscal year 2008. Included among the line items: money to fund the '08 Republican and Democratic primaries. Gov. Mark Sanford (R) might veto the budget, and the Senate will probably override its veto.

So - the state parties can set any primary date they want. And the state will pay for it. One caveat: the state will also supervise the election, which means that shenanigans will be harder to pull off.

The parties don't have to schedule their primaries on the same day. And they've both sent signals that they're itching to move up their dates. Right now, the Democrats are scheduled for 1/29. The Republicans are scheduled for 2/2. Privately, party insiders predict that both parties could hold their primaries as early as January 15.

And why not?

Neither party cares about delegates. And all the candidates will participate. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 04.27.07 11:22 AM | Comments (0)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Public not entitled to all officials' records

Capitol Fax-- Smoking ban edges closer to passage

Colorado Pols-- Colorado Supremes punt amendment 41

Doc's Political Parlor-- Boon or Bane?

Georgia Political Digest-- NAACP leader criticizes Brown

Iowa Politics-- Iraq war dominates presidential debate

JohnCombest.com -- House Speaker Rod Jetton: Romney consultant?

NhNewslinks.com -- Civil unions OK'd

Quorum Report -- State lawmakers criticizes border police chiefs

Sayfie's Review -- Law would make lying illegal for legislators

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Ford jurors in third day

WisPolitics.com-- Ziegler seeks to block Ethics Board complaint

Posted 04.27.07 11:15 AM | Comments (0)

Format This

The format, in which candidates were limited to 60-second answers and not allowed to engage each other, kept the debate civil. The night's only real exchange came when Dennis Kucinich challenged Barack Obama for saying, once, that all options were on the table with respect to Iran, charging "You're setting the stage for another war."

Standing, from left to right, were Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, John Edwards, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson. In the spin room, Biden's political director Danny O'Brien seemed pleased with Biden's center stage positioning. He said it was randomly determined before the debate. O'Brien: "When you're a second-tier candidate, you take what you can get."

The debate took place in SCSU's heavily guarded MLK Auditorium. Prior to going live, Brian Williams told the crowd he was trying to work on the temperature. But it only seemed get worse: on stage, Richardson, Edwards, and Obama were sweating and the program turned into a makeshift fan for many in the audience [NORA McALVANAH]

Posted 04.27.07 09:30 AM | Comments (2)

We Were Thinking ...

Our thoughts immediately after we exited the debate:

Bill Richardson : Has shined in these forums in the past- recall the DNC Winter meeting and Nevada cattle call. But he didn't live up to the expectations -- sweating, pacing, and, during some moments, talking to someone off stage.

John Edwards : Showed restraint last night. He's traditionally taken on the role of the aggressor, but last night he was reserved. He even waited till the second time he spoke to mention the mill. He also waited some time before he reminded everyone, "I was born here in South Carolina."

Hillary Clinton : Was wearing some serious bling, and she proved that she could pull it off. She seemed comfortable, polite and attentive. She has, of course, had plenty of time to perfect the stare-and-nod.

Barack Obama : Avoided looking at Hillary directly and thumbed through his note cards. This is where his inexperience shows the most: he was nervous.

Joe Biden: No one benefited more from their position, both literally and figuratively, during the night. The debate focused on Iraq, his forte, and he was dead center in the line-up. He also had the night's biggest laugh with his answer to the question of whether he could assure the public, that despite his reputation as too verbose, he could be disciplined. He answered simply: "Yes."

Mike Gravel: Was shifting his weight around. He served as the night's "woe is me" candidate, letting Brian Williams know he thought he was being slighted on time.

Dennis Kucinich: If he has an advisor, here's what she/he told him before the debate: Smile and look off into space. He showed good posture tonight. For someone as short as he is, the guy stands up pretty tall.

Chris Dodd: We barely knew ya. Still [NORA McALVANAH].

Posted 04.27.07 09:11 AM | Comments (6)

CCing Spin

As expected, our inboxes were swarmed with spin. "THE REVIEWS ARE IN: HILLARY 'SUPERB,' 'STRONG,' 'VERY SOLID' IN FIRST DEBATE" ... "John Edwards: Winning the Issues Debate" ... "DODD DEMONSTRATES PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP AT FIRST DEBATE" arrived in tandem last night. In reference to his highly-regarded one-liner, Biden's press release was titled simply "yes."

Interestingly, however, Bill Richardson's camp has stayed quiet today. Still, he wasn't entirely absent from our emails. Dodd's camp sent out a few releases devoted to the NM gov, one noting that Richardson said he was for instant background checks, but as a Member of Congress, he voted against the Brady Bill [NORA McALVANAH].

Posted 04.27.07 09:08 AM | Comments (1)

Hotline After Dark: The Post-Debate Dissection

The first debate of the WH cycle was last night and MSNBC had full out coverage. CNN also touched on it but there was not a lot on FNC.

Of the '08ers only the top three -- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards -- did not do interviews afterwards, sending campaign surrogates instead. Elizabeth Edwards was on "Hardball" pre-debate and "LKL" post-debate but Edwards may wish he had done some TV himself as he did not get a lot coverage in the post-debate analysis. In fact, at one point in the evening, after showing a clip of Edwards from the debate, MSNBC's Olbermann noted: "It's perhaps the first reference to the Edwards performance tonight in our coverage since the debate ended about an hour and 45 minutes ago."

Here are some more post-debate highlights:

MSNBC's Matthews: "It was civilized and therefore not that exciting" (4/26).

CNN's Crowley: "No blood spilled in this first of umpteen presidential debates. You had to listen hard for the low-impact jabs" ("AC 360," 4/26).

Dem strategist James Carville: "I don't think much happened. I don't think much change" ("LKL," CNN, 4/26).

Joe Biden, on his "yes" answer: "Well, look, I mean, how do you answer that question? The fact of the matter is, the American people are going to make a judgment, not the press, whether or not I talk too much or too little. And so I think it was the appropriate answer" (MSNBC, 4/26).

Bill Richardson: "I'm not a blow-dried candidate. I don't have a bunch of consultants. I speak from the heart. I also think I'm the most experienced candidate with the most foreign policy experience. I'm a governor. I've actually done all of the things they talked about in the debate" (MSNBC, 4/26).

More Richardson: "It seemed, at the beginning, that the top tier candidates, at least in the polls, were getting most of the questions. And I was a little frustrated because I wanted to answer so many" ("LKL," CNN, 4/26).

Dennis Kucinich: ""I was able to establish that you can't say you're a peace candidate and keep voting to fund a war" (MSNBC, 4/26).

Elizabeth Edwards, on Edwards: "I was very pleased tonight because he was able to express, albeit in those little, short one-minute answers, his ideas on health care, on the energy crisis, on global warming, on the war in Iraq."

On the $400 haircut: "We're pretty distressed that that bill didn't come to our house instead of the campaign" ("LKL," CNN, 4/26). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 04.27.07 09:04 AM | Comments (0)

Really? Even Here

Dennis Kucinich and his red-headed-amazon-wife were PDAing in the spin room, where she held his hand, affectionately pushed back his hair, and rubbed his back as he was answering questions [NORA McALVANAH]

Posted 04.27.07 07:39 AM | Comments (5)

Bad Mood Bears

Bill Richardson was noticeably uncomfortable throughout the debate, shifting, sweating, and, at times, starring off stage. In the spin room, Richardson looked equally haggard. "I want to leave now," he barked to his advisor, Mike Stratton. At least he didn't look at his watch on camera [NORA McALVANAH]

Posted 04.27.07 07:38 AM | Comments (0)

Tonight, We're All Democrats

Republican Gov. Mark Sanford, a possible VP or even dark-horse WH candidate despite his protestations, joined Dems for their big night, sitting up front to watch the show. When asked his opinion on the night's stand-outs, hepassed. SC's the winner, he said diplomatically.

But perhaps all that playing nice with Dems has kept him away from his own party. When we asked him about John McCain's trip to SC this weekend, Sanford seemed confused: "To be honest, I didn't know he was here." [NORA McALVANAH]

Posted 04.27.07 07:35 AM | Comments (1)

Best In Show

The Hotline gave out the following awards for the night:

Comfortable in his/her own shows award: Hillary Clinton.
If you blinked you missed me award: Chris Dodd.
I came here with a lot of signs award: Barack Obama, although Hillary's a close second. (When we pulled up to the debate sight there was a virtual Obama vs. Hillary street war going on).
I only came here because everyone else did award: Bill Richardson. The guy just looked bored.
I love this Dasani water bottle the organizers gave me award: John Edwards. He was all about the H2O on his podium.
I flew in special from space just to be here award: tie: Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich.
I want to be VP award: Joe Biden. Unlikely, we know, but he chatted up Hillary before and after the debate and threw her the night's only candidate-to-candidate bone in the evening's closing statement [NORA McALVANAH]

Posted 04.27.07 07:30 AM | Comments (4)

April 26, 2007

Second Takes: Post-Debate Spin

It's the circle of life. Reporters ask campaign officials who won. Then campaign officials ask reporters who won. Then reporters tell other campaign officials about what they were told. Campaign officials tell campaign officials who tell reporters, and the circle is complete.

The collective perception of the national press corps will drive tomorrow's news coverage, and it seems as if the press, right now, has some ideas about Obama.

Either Obama did fine but not as fine as HRC and Edwards, "Obama O'Bombed," or Dennis Kucinich, by virtue of engaging Obama on terrorism, saved Obama from bombing. Granted, that spin is self-serving. Going into the debate, Obama was the night's biggest target, and the volleys continued in the spin room.

Everyone seemed to think that both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards acquitted themselves admirably, although there were a few mentions of Edwards's long pause before responding to the "moral leader" question, and a few counter-volleys about Hillary Clinton's alleged shrillness.

Everyone also seemed to think that Sen. Joe Biden distinguished himself from Sen. Chris Dodd and Gov. Bill Richardson. Not only did Biden have the best line of the night, he was able to show the television audience his good side.

One correction: Bill Richardson was the first candidate to mention Darfur; Biden was second.

And the Clinton campaign insisted to us that none of their supporters was paid for their efforts. No one received any money to attend on Clinton's behalf, two Clinton aides said. Rumors and and our one anecdote aside, we have no hard evidence that Clinton or her allies or consultants paid anyone.

Posted 04.26.07 09:28 PM | Comments (12)

First Take: The Debate

--Still unknown: What constitutes success in Iraq for Edwards, Obama and Clinton.

--"Do you believe there is such a thing as a global war on terror?" Clinton, Obama and Edwards raise hands.

--Biden was the only candidate to mention Darfur

--Obama, potentially realizing that he might face some heat for his response to the question of what'd he do if two American cities were nuked, later clarified his response: "We have genuine enemies out there that have to be hunted down." There is "no contradiction" between using force "intelligently" and building alliances. Kucinich then noted that his statement was "provocative." Obama calls the idea of initiating a war with Iran "a profound mistake" but says "there is no contradiction taking us the seriously the need to want to strengthen our alliances around the world" but "if we have nuclear proliferators around the war," that is a "grave" threat. It was strong response.

--Edwards's efforts to draw out Clinton and Obama on specifics.

--Obama's refusal to answer the question of how he'd pay for his health care plan.

--Gravel's outrage over Congressional [in]action about Iraq.

--Richardson distinguishing himself from Biden and Dodd on Iraq.

--Obama will get props for bringing up black infant mortality rates

--Commentators will say that Edwards and Obama looked uncomfortable at times

--No one made any major errors. No one made any major advances.

--Gravel will get props for being himself.

Posted 04.26.07 08:38 PM | Comments (24)

Spin Begins: First Take

From an Obama aide: It was a "Strong, commanding performance. The candidates agreed that this is a change election and he showed himself to be the strongest candidate for change."

From RNC chairman Mike Duncan:

“The Democrats’ performance in South Carolina could not have been more predictable. There is a reason the Democrats have failed to win South Carolina in a presidential election in the last 30 years. On every issue, from the War on Terror to keeping our taxes low and our economy strong, Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, and others are out of touch with the values of the people of South Carolina – and all of America.”

Posted 04.26.07 08:33 PM | Comments (0)

Debate IX

Edwards was asked to identify his moral leader. He paused for about seven seconds. Then: "I don't think I could identify just one person who could be his moral leader." He then identifies his Lord, his wife and his father.

Williams asks HRC: Overall, is Wal-Mart a good thing or bad thing for the United States of America? Clinton: "It's a mixed blessing. It brought goods intro rural Arkansas and gave people a chance to stretch the dollar further. As they grew much bigger, they have raised serious questions about ... [corporate] responsibility."

Biden is the first candidate to mention Darfur.

Posted 04.26.07 08:14 PM | Comments (3)

The Debate, Part VII: NAACP, Worst Mistakes

An e-mailer asks about the NAACP boycott. Biden cites James Clyburn. Says there's no reason not to honor students at this college.

Sen. Obama: "I think that the Confederate Flag should be put into a museum. But we've got an enormous debate that should be taking place right now." Mentions black mortality rates and poverty. As "Hillary mention earlier, this is going to be a change election."

The candidates are asked about their professional mistakes.

Gravel: "I won't hold their youth and inexperience against them."

Kucinich: "When I was mayor of Cleveland, on Good Friday, I fired the police chief live on the six o'clock news."

Clinton: "I don;t have enough time to tell you about all the mistakes I made in the past years." ... she cites health care and her believing Bush.

Obama: The Schiavo case. "Professionally, the biggest mistake I made was that when I first arrived in the Senate. A lot of us, including me, left the Senate with [legislation] that allowed Congress to intrude where it shouldn't have."

Biden: "Overestimating the competence of this administration and underestimating the arrogance."

Edwards: "I was wrong to vote for this war."

Dodd: "The war in Iraq was a huge mistake."

Richardson: "I'm impatient. I'm too aggressive."

------------

Clinton is asked whether she'd grant amnesty, against the wishes of the American people, to illegal immigrants. Clinton responds that she favors comprehensive immigration reform.

-----------

Obama is asked about his response to a hypothesized catastrophe. Two nukes. We're sure it's Al Q.

Obama: He'd make sure the recovery and response was solid. "What we can't do is then alienate the world community based on false intelligence based on bombast." He says he'd talk to the international community.

Edwards: "The first thing I would do is be certain I would know who is responsible, and I would act swiftly and strongly and hold them responsible for that."

Clinton: "Having been a senator during 9/11, I understand the horror ... of that attack. I think a president must move as swiftly as is prudent to retaliate. If we are attacked and we can determine who is behind that attack and if there were nations that supported or gave mateiral aid to those attack. I believe that we should quickly respond. But that doesn't mean we go quickly looking for other fights."

Posted 04.26.07 07:47 PM | Comments (0)

Debate, Part V: Model SCOTUS Justice And Guns

Same question of all the field:

Say a name or pass. The question is: your model Supreme Court justice.

Richardson: Justice Whizzer White. Or Justice Ginsberg.

Dodd: Ginsberg.

Edwards: Ginsberg or Breyer.

Clinton: did the government fail those students at Virginia Tech? Clinton: "Yes." "We now know that the background check system didn't work because this shooter... had been involuntarily committed but yet he could walk into a gun store and buy a gun."

Richardson, an NRA favorite, is asked about VA Tech: Expresses his condolances to those that perish. "You're right. I'm a Westerner. I'm the governor of New Mexico. But I want to state for the record that a vast vast majority of gun owners are law abiding." The issue is twofold: mental illness, and notes he favors instant background checks. He then calls for mental health parity.
--------------------

The Clinton campaign is blogging the debate.

The Dodd campaign warroom is live, too.

--------------------
Show of hands:

Gravel, Biden. Dodd, Kucinich, Richardson -- they've had a gun in their house. The rest haven't. Biden: "Shot gun, not pistol."
-------------------

Edwards is asked about which taxes he'd raise to pay for his health care plan. George W. Bush's, he says. And then he notes that he has a specific health care plan. "Rhetoric is not enough. High falooting language is not enough."

Obama is asked how he'd pay for his plan. Obama says there should be a national pool people can buy into if they don't have health insurance. Then -- he'd make sure that "we control costs." Then -- catastrophic insurance for those who can't afford it.

Obama did not answer the question.

Clinton: "All of the ideas that you are going to hear in this campaign" should be put out to the public for review. Clinton mentions that she put forth a plan with elements of what Obama and Edwards have proposed. First, she'd cut costs. She thinks she "we can save money into the existing system." She is "not ready to put new money" into the system.

Posted 04.26.07 07:35 PM | Comments (1)

The Debate, Part VI: Gravel's Moment

Gravel says other candidates "scare" him. Especially the one that wants to nuke Iran. The "top tier" ones. And "Joe." Who "has a certain arrogance." The Iraqis "are asking us to leave." So "we should just leave."

Williams to Clinton: why does the majority of the public have an unfavorable view against you? She answers in reference to Republicans: "It may have something to do with the fact that I fight for what I believe in." The "country is ready for change. It is ready for universal health care policy." It is "ready to clean up the government."

Williams asks Edwards about abortion. Most Americans support the partial birth abortion ban. The Democrats don't support it. Why? Edwards: "This decision by the Supreme Court is a perfect example of what's at stake in this election." We "have to show respect for people who have different views."

Obama says that "most Americans recognize that this is a profoundly difficult issue." "When you describe a specific procedure that accounts for less than 1% of the abortions that take place, and people get concerned..."

Williams as Biden: as president, would he have a specific litmus test question on Roe v. Wade. He wouldn't have a specific question but wink wink that the folks he'd appoint would "share my values" and understand a "right to privacy." Biden supports the partial birth abortion ban, BTW.

Posted 04.26.07 07:26 PM | Comments (0)

The Debate, Part III

Kucinich, asked about his standing in the polls, attacks Clinton and Edwards for "making the wrong" decision in '03.

Williams asks Biden about his mouth and his gaffe-machine-ness. Will he have the discipline he'd need on the world stage?

Biden's answer: "Yes."

That's it.

Press room laughs. Audience laughs. Williams moves on.

Posted 04.26.07 07:24 PM | Comments (0)

The Debate Part II

Richardson says if he were in Congress, he would not vote to fund the troops. He would withdraw "all of our troops" including residual troops by the end of '07.

Williams asks Dodd about the Feingold-Reid legislation. "Is that possible?" Dodd: "I believe it is, Brian."

Williams feels the need to introduce the country to Sen. Gravel. What's his advice for the rest of the non-Vietnam era field? Gravel: "First off, understand that this war was lost the day that George Bush invaded Iraq in a fraudulent basis." Gravel says he is embarrassed about Dems in Congress. Says he wants to sit down with Pelosi and Reid to pass a "law making it a felony to stay there." The press room titters.

An e-mailer asks Obama what his definition of a "mission complete" status is. Obama thanks the e-mailer's husband for his service and talks about the legislation he's proposed to increase the size of the ground forces. "We are one signature away or 16 votes away from ending this war. If the president is not going to sign the bill that has been sent to him, what we have to do is gather up 16 votes to override his veto." He praises the troops again.

Williams asks Clinton for a rebuttal. "I think what Barack says it right. I think our challenge is to put together the political support ... within the Republican Party... to [end] this war."

Williams promises to ask uncomfortable questions.

Obama: You've promised a new kind of politics, but just this week, the Resko story broke. Does Obama practice what he preaches? Obama: "We had thousands of donors. This donor engaged in some ethical [sic] behavior and we denounced it." He cites his record of bringing people together around this type of politics. He brags about not taking money from politics or federally registered lobbyists.

Edwards: You've spoken with great passion about poverty...his two America's themes... A Roger Simon quote is read. "The point is not the cost. But why did he pay for his hair cuts out of his campaign funds?" Edwards: "That was a mistake." He acknowledges that he lives a "blessed and privileged" lifestyle now. Yes, Edwards was a son of a mill worker. He vividly remembers his Dad after church, taking his whole family into a restaurant, and then his father realized he couldn't pay the prices that were on the menu and had to leave.

Williams asks Edwards about a hedge funds -- do they make America any better? Edwards: the financial markets are "an important component" of figuring out what America needs. Edwards thinks folks who work in financial markets can play a role.

Williams asks Clinton about hedge funds. Clinton: America "is a great country" because it is entrepreneurial and has "learned how to regulate" its great free markets. HRC notes that she represents NYC, the "global capital market leader" and a "big state where people have no access to health care."

Sorry MSNBC -- Clinton didn't take the bait.

Williams asks Richardson about his dawdling in calling for the Gonzales resignation. Cause he was Hispanic. Huh? Richardson: "That's how I felt, Brian." Richardson said he wanted to wait for Gonazles's testimony before he made up his mind. The American people "don't want blow dried candidates with perfection."

The press room titters.

Dodd is asked about his coziness with lobbyists. Dodd: "I am very proud to come from a family who served in public service."

Why did Williams not ask Clinton about her elephant? Inquiring opposing candidates (and this reporter) want to know.

Posted 04.26.07 07:09 PM | Comments (1)

The Debate Begins

Williams asks Clinton about Reid's "war is lost" comment. Does she agree? Clinton: "The American people have spoken. The Congress has voted as of today to end this war..." It's not clear whether Clinton agrees with Reid. "This is not America's war to win or lose." It is up to Iraq, she says, to "demonstrate that they are willing to .. make the sacrifice and compromise necessary to put together" a unity gov't and end the civil war.

Williams asks Biden the same question. Biden: "Look Brian, this is not a game show. This is not a football game. This is not win or lose." He transitions to the Iraq bill. Biden gets extra points for wearing roughly the same outfit as B.W.

Williams asks Obama, who called the war "dumb," voted for the approps, whether his words can square with those who have given sacrifice for the country. Obama: "I am proud that I opposed this war from the start." He transitions to the war. Obama brags that he is "proud to have put together a plan in January" that mimics what the Congress passed.

Williams asks Edwards whether his "leaders need to admit mistakes" rhetoric is a jab at his opponents. Edwards answers no, but he mentions Clinton specifically in his answer, and says it's up to her to look at her conscience. So -- yes.

Williams turns to Clinton for a response. Clinton: "I take resp. for my vote. Obv. I did as good a job I could at the time. It was a sincere vote based on the info available to me.... If I knew then what I know now..." But "the real question is what to we do now?" And she pivots into Bush's stubborness.

Williams, to Kucinich: Can one be against the war and still fund it? Softball! Kucinich home runs. "No." Kucinich cites his end-the-war bill.

Posted 04.26.07 06:51 PM | Comments (1)

Before The Debate

We are watching the program feed from MSNBC. The director seems to be practicing his sweeps and swoops.

About 16 minutes before the debate, eight Democratic presidentials clad in nearly identical gray suits -- even Hillary Clinton -- stood and posed for pictures. Dennis Kucinich waved at someone -- probably his lovely wife. Obama and Hillary stood on opposite sides of the stage.

The candidates then moved to their respective lecterns. Obama's eyes remained on the crowd. Joe Biden concentrated on what seemed to be some notes. John Edwards looked slightly concerned about something. Mike Gravel joked with someone off-stage. Hillary Clinton seems poised.

Then Obama walked over to Edwards and began to chat. Hillary and Bill Richardson likewise.

Then Hillary walked over to Obama and she, Obama and Joe Biden said hello.

Brian Williams briefed the audience. "When we come on the air, I have to introduce these candidates. And the camera moves are arleady pre-planned and we really need to ask that you do something counterintuitive and not clap for all these perfectly nice honorable people who are running for ... president."

Williams confesses: "I'm getting a little itchy."

Posted 04.26.07 06:41 PM | Comments (1)

There Are Two Debates Tonight

The first, with Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama.

The second, with Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson.

What Is To Be Done?

Barack Obama -- an adviser acknowledged to us that "Everyone is here to see whether he is what they think he is." In other words: the beef. Does Obama have it? Can he stand a stage next to Hillary Clinton and prove he is ready to be president? Also: he knows he's the star attraction, and he wants to frame the debate as much as possible. Also: he was the only guy who got Iraq right from the start.

Hillary Clinton -- an aide said that the campaign hoped that Clinton would demonstrate that she's the only person up there ready to be president from day one. She is bristling for attacks from her opponents. She has also never participated in a multi-candidate debate before.

John Edwards -- where Obama is the dreamer and Clinton is the thinker, Edwards wants to be the doer. He has solutions: for health care, for climate change, for Iraq. Also: does the moderator take Edwards as seriously as Obama and Clinton?

The rest of the joes want to get in good zingers. They have the least to lose, but if they lose it tonight, they'll be losers for good.

Posted 04.26.07 06:32 PM | Comments (0)

Build These Crowds

About a quarter mile from the Martlin Luther King theatre and temporary presidential debate studio site, MSNBC's Hardball erected a massive outdoor soundstage. The piazza in the background has become a gathering place for supporters of the candidates. These crowds are "built," in the argot of campaign science.

How?

1. Have the "it" candidate. Sen. Barack Obama's South Carolina staff has spent the last week corralling Obama supporters at nearby campuses. And -- how to say this -- South Carolina State University at Orangeburg is a majority African American campus. So it probably was not a huge challenge to turn out Obama supporters.

2. Pay them. The rumour du jour is that Hillary Clinton's campaign, or some consultant affiliated with the campaign, paid students at nearby Clafin College to come hold large "Clinton Country" signs. One Clinton sign-holder did indeed volunteer to us that she was being paid, but she wouldn't say by whom. A Clinton spokesman denies that the campaign has paid anyone to attend.

3. Bus them in. John Edwards did a bit of that, we're told. (Busing in, not paying). Edwards allies seemed to have arrived late. We caught Edwards's director of advance -- he's the guy with the telephone to his ear in the picture below -- telling the other end of the line that "We need more signs!". Indeed: Chris Matthews's first guest was Elizabeth Edwards. About two dozen Edwards supporters materialized a few minutes later, but they were too late: the only room for them was on the fringes of the piazza.

Posted 04.26.07 05:00 PM | Comments (2)

Sign Wars In Orangeburg

ORANGEBURG -- For some reason, field organizers from the campaigns of Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton decided to clad their supporters in dark blue shirts.

At the prompting of a camera operator from NBC News, this scene erupted:

There are no signs here for Ex-Sen. John Edwards, the candidate who last won the South Carolina Democratic Party.

Update: there's now a few John Edwards signs. And Edwards supporters are wearing white.

Posted 04.26.07 03:40 PM | Comments (1)

To The Strains Of "Barbara Ann," McCain Greets Columbia

John McCain’s second stop in South Carolina today took him to an active flour processing factory off Gervais Street in downtown Columbia. 200 supporters packed into a dark, dank room. There was no air conditioning, because, presumably, the flour would blow around.

As McCain’s entourage turned into the complex, they passed a guy waving a Confederate Flag, a van emblazoned with “Kerry-MCCAIN signs, a half-naked woman posing for an erotic photo shoot, and a Bermuda-shorts wearing Beach Boy.

“We all know that John McCain sacrificed for his country,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham by way of introduction. “Now we’re going to sacrifice for him.” McCain kept his remarks mercifully short. The supporters cheered with genuinely. His standard stump speech ensued.

And then McCain and about 40 members of the press corps trooped across the street into one of the very few buildings that survived Sherman’s civil war wrath – a tiny converted school house. Grits milled from the flour company awaited. Maureen Dowd wandered over, arched an eyebrow, and did not partake. But many in the press did. They said it was delicious.

Mostly, the press asked about Iraq and McCain gave his standard answers. At one point, he conceded that he “understands that the clock is ticking.” Asked about Rudy Giuliani’s statement that the country would suffer more casualties if a Democrat were elected president in 2008, McCain passed. “I will not say anything about that. “ He allowed that “I believe that America will be safer if I am president.”

It’s not clear if McCain saw the protesters, but his staff tried to turn one of their symbols into campaign fodder: McCain entered and exited the stage to the strains of Barbara Ann. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 04.26.07 03:10 PM | Comments (1)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"I'm not sure how much of a debate it is. I understand the quote 'first-tier' guys didn't want any opening statements."

-- Joe Biden, Columbia State, 4/26

Posted 04.26.07 12:48 PM | Comments (3)

Civil Unions Pass NH Senate

The New Hampshire Senate has just passed its spousal union bill, our NH affiliate, Dr. Bill Siroty, reports.

Gov. John Lynch (D) is expected to sign the legislation shortly.

Posted 04.26.07 12:14 PM | Comments (0)

Edwards Tries A Contrast

COLUMBIA, SC -- A few hours before the Democrats debate, ex-Sen. John Edwards will do something a little differently. At noon, he's scheduled to take a walking tour of Allendale, South Carolina, a small county about two hours southwest of Columbia.

Abundant with cotton fields and forests, Allendale is pretty to look at, but it is desperately poor. More than a third of all residents there live below the federal poverty line. -- the highest percentage in South Carolina. More than half of its residents lack health insurance. Most children do. The big business in Allendale is charity: dozens have set up shop there.

Edwards may point out the irony: the Lowcountry region of South Carolina, according to the Allendale County website, is "one of the fastest growing regions in the US." Perhaps in the other America.

Though there's an outpost of South Carolina State University there, Edwards isn't stumping for votes. He probably won't get too many. He is stumping instead for the contrast. By showing up there on an important day, his campaign hopes reporters will pay attention to his anti-poverty agenda and his detailed plan for universal health care coverage. The campaign also hopes that reporters notice that Sen. Barack Obama's first post-debate visit takes him to wealthy Charleston.

To win South Carolina again, Edwards cannot rely on past successes; he will not win the same endorsements he won in 2004; he cannot hope to outshine Obama or Hillary Clinton in mega-wattage. His only route to victory is to convince enough Democrats that his policies best represent the values of Democratic primary voters. So he will take his campaign to different places and try to emphasize different points. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 04.26.07 11:45 AM | Comments (5)

Biden's South Carolina State Director

will be Trip King, who was state dir. for Sen., Fritz Hollings for more than a decade. Also joining the team: the stupendously named Remle Beard, who was Howard Dean's upstate director in '04 and worked for the Gore-Lieberman ticket in '00.

Kudos for Biden: he was the only '08 Dem to show up at the official Orangeburg pre-debate party last night.

Posted 04.26.07 11:03 AM | Comments (0)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- McCain's support in Ariz. slipping

Capitol Fax-- Pay raises and pajamas

Colorado Pols-- GOP Slobbering all over itself on ethics ...

Doc's Political Parlor-- The legislature resolves

Georgia Political Digest-- $7 million on the line in contract dispute

Iowa Politics-- Senate approves incentives to lure Google

JohnCombest.com -- Politicos having common enemy helps to heal political wounds

NhNewslinks.com -- N.H. is set to approve same-sex civil unions

Quorum Report -- Immigration folly at the lege

Sayfie's Review -- Florida will be punished if it moves primary before Feb. 5

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Knox / Hamilton meet on BEP

WisPolitics.com-- Campaign finance law returns to court

Posted 04.26.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

What South Carolinian Political Elites Are Talking About

1. Why does lieutenant governor Andre Bauer need a security detail? In theory, it might help keep insurance rates down, since he seems to be a bit accident prone.

2. Will suburban white voters vote Obama? Is there anything HRC can do?

3. Bill Richardson has a better organization here than people think, and superstardom and money aside, he's probably the best fit for Democrats here.

4. Joe Biden's repeated treks here have won him some endorsements. But can he still build crowds?

5. Do African American leaders in the state believe the country is ready to elect an African American?

6. How many years will it take before Dems take control of the governor's mansion?

7. If Fred Thompson decides to run, who's left to run his campaign here? Is he actually going to campaign?

8. If you're a Republican, there are some places in the state where it would be best NOT to mention how great a governor Mark Sanford is.

9. Speaking of: Sanford is now planning to find primary challengers to profligate state representatives. And people think there are divisions among Republicans now!

10. Why did McCain lose the Charleston straw poll?

11. Immigration, immigration, immigration.

12. 800K South Carolinians out of 4M lack health insurance. Discuss: __.

13. Bill Clinton's coming later this month!

14. WIll Rep. James Clyburn endorse?

15. What's with those Michigan economic development ads on TV?

Posted 04.26.07 10:21 AM | Comments (0)

Republicans To Bracket Dems In South Carolina

Not terribly surprising, but check out this breathless State lede:

EXCLUSIVE GOP stirs a media storm for Democrats’ parade

By AARON GOULD SHEININ - asheinin@thestate.com

While Democrats celebrate and enjoy their time in the national spotlight today, the Republicans will try to turn that shaft into a cold, hard glare.

National and state Republicans will spend the day telling South Carolinians and the country at large why the party believes “Democrats are wrong.”

According to a copy of a Republican National Committee plan to be released today, the GOP will launch a major media offensive to counter the Democratic message coming from Orangeburg.

The plan, which was obtained by The State, includes talking points and research on why the top Democratic candidates are “wrong on the economy for South Carolina,” as well as wrong on the war in Iraq and wrong on South Carolina values.

RNC comm. dir Lisa Miller and deputy Brian Walton earned their keep today. You can read what they're saying after the jump.

SOUTH CAROLINA DEBATE: W2W4

A Quick Guide On "What 2 Watch 4" At Tonight's

First Democrat Presidential Debate

­­­­­­­­______________________________________________________

Will Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) Adopt Her "Southern Drawl" For Her Debate In South Carolina?

"New York's Illinois-Born Senator" Adopts "Southern Drawl" For Alabama Rally. "Senator Clinton may have drawn rousing ovations during her appearances at civil rights rallies in Selma, Ala. ... but it was not what she said that stirred the most buzz yesterday - it was how she said it. A 27-second snippet of audio clips ... showed New York's Illinois-born senator adopting a Southern drawl during parts of her speech at a Selma church." ("Clinton Stirs Buzz On The Web With Her Southern Drawl," The New York Sun, 3/6/07)

* Click Here To Listen

MSNBC's Tucker Carlson: "Hillary Clinton morphs into Scarlett O'Hara. Well, she talks like her anyway." (MSNBC's "Tucker," 3/5/07)

Will Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) Show Up With A New Makeover?

"Amid The Nearly $3.3 Million In Travel Costs, Equipment Rental Fees And Salaries Listed On Presidential Candidate John Edwards's Most Recent Campaign Finance Filing, A Few Expenses Stand Out." (Robin Givhan, "Primping For President: A Little Dab'll Do Ya," The Washington Post, 4/20/07)

* "They Are The Ones Incurred At Designworks Salon In Dubuque, Iowa, Torrenueva Hair Designs In Beverly Hills, Calif., And The Pink Sapphire Salon And Spa In Manchester, N.H." (Robin Givhan, "Primping For President: A Little Dab'll Do Ya," The Washington Post, 4/20/07)

Edwards Paid $800 For Two Haircuts And Over $400 On Makeup In The First Quarter Of The Year. "The campaign paid $800 for two haircuts from the Torrenueva salon. Designworks provided $248 worth of camera-ready makeup. And Pink Sapphire was called on two occasions for Edwards's makeup needs at $150 and $75 a visit." (Robin Givhan, "Primping For President: A Little Dab'll Do Ya," The Washington Post, 4/20/07)

What Part Of His Resume Will Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) Exaggerate?

"[Sen. Obama] Has ... Shown A Tendency Toward Seemingly Minor Contradictions And Rhetorical Slips That Serve As Reminders That He Is Still A Newcomer To National Politics." (Mike Allen, "Rookie Mistakes Plague Obama," The Politico, 3/26/07)

Obama Said His Parents "Got Together" And He Was Born As A Result Of The Selma March. Sen. Obama: "Because some folks were willing to march across a bridge. So they got together and Barack Obama, Jr. was born. So don't tell me I don't have a claim on Selma, Alabama." (Senator Barack Obama, Remarks At Brown Chapel AME Church, Selma, AL, 3/4/07)

* "Earlier In The Day At A Prayer Breakfast, The Illinois Democrat Said: 'If It Hadn't Been For Selma, I Wouldn't Be Here.'" (Anne E. Kornblut and Peter Whoriskey, "Clinton, Obama Link Selma March To Present," The Washington Post, 3/5/07)

* But Sen. Obama Was Born In 1961, 4 Years Before The 1965 Selma March. "Barack Obama was born in Hawaii on August 4th, 1961." (Obama For America Website, www.barackobama.com, Accessed 3/6/07; Anne E. Kornblut and Peter Whoriskey, "Clinton, Obama Link Selma March To Present," The Washington Post, 3/5/07)

At A Recent Fundraiser, Obama Claimed He Was A "Constitutional Law Professor." "'I was a constitutional law professor, which means unlike the current president I actually respect the Constitution,' Obama told an audience at a campaign fundraiser." (Brendan Farrington, "Obama: Bush Fails To Respect The Constitution," The Associated Press, 3/30/07)

* But On The University Of Chicago Law School Website, Obama Is Listed As A "Senior Lecturer In Law (On Leave Of Absence)." (University Of Chicago Law School Website, http://www.law.uchicago.edu/faculty/obama, Accessed 3/30/07)

* "In Academia, There Is A Vast Difference Between The Two Titles. Details Matter." (Lynn Sweet, "Obama's Book: What's Real, What's Not," Chicago Sun-Times, 8/8/04)

Will Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) Arrive At Debate On A Horse, Helicopter, Or Corporate Jet?

Richardson Used State Helicopter To Go Horseback Riding At A Ranch. "The New Mexican's Mitote column of Sept. 21 reported the governor had taken a state helicopter to go horseback riding at The Chama Ranch of Santa Fe art and real-estate investor Gerald Peters." (Tom Sharpe, "Helicopter Flight Raises Questions," The Santa Fe New Mexican, 10/10/03)

* Use Of Helicopter Cost Taxpayers $2,500. "According to the report, a high-tech Blackhawk helicopter scheduled for a training trip from Santa Fe to Carlsbad on Sept. 6 [2003] was diverted to Chama at Richardson's request -- a cost to taxpayers of $2,500 -- on a day when a state police helicopter often used by Richardson was grounded for maintenance." (Tom Sharpe, "Helicopter Flight Raises Questions," The Santa Fe New Mexican, 10/10/03)

Richardson Has Taken Tens Of Thousands Of Dollars In Free Flights From The World's Largest Smokeless Tobacco Firm. "Gov. Bill Richardson has taken tens of thousands of dollars worth of free corporate jet flights from the world's largest smokeless-tobacco company in his role as head of the Democratic Governors Association." (Jeff Jones, "Smokeless On These Flights," Albuquerque Journal, 5/14/06)

Will Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) Proclaim That He Is A "Northeast Liberal" ... Again?

Biden Is A "Self-Described Northeast Liberal." (Valerie Bauerlein and Lee Bandy, "Thousands Pay Respect To S.C.'s History Maker," The [Columbia, SC] State, 7/2/03)

Richmond Times-Dispatch Referred To Biden As "Liberal Icon." (Editorial, "History Lesson," Richmond Times-Dispatch, 9/15/02)

The New York Times' David Brooks Referred To Biden As A "Liberal Hawk." (David Brooks, Op-Ed, "Too Quiet On The Home Front," The New York Times, 3/20/04)

Will Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) Be Asked To Show Identification Before Being Allowed On Stage?

"More Problematic Is The Fact That Dodd Is Not Well Known Outside The State, Except To C-SPAN Junkies." (Howard Reiter, Op-Ed, "Is Dodd A Contender?" Hartford Courant, 1/14/07)

* "[D]odd [Is] Barely Registering In The Polls." (Adam C. Smith, "Biden And Dodd Have Been Around And That's Good," St. Petersburg Times, 4/22/07)

"'Where's He From? Vermont?' Party Activist David Dew Whispered, As The Connecticut Senator Addressed A Small Lunchtime Group." (David Lightman, "Dodd's Quest: A Long Haul," Hartford Courant, 1/16/07)

Posted 04.26.07 09:45 AM | Comments (0)

Not A Red State

LEXINGTON, SOUTH CAROLINA -- You cannot escape the advertisements on radio stations across the state. Elton John is coming to Greenville! One night only. April 30.

South Carolina has Elton fever. We even heard a promo on a country station.

Greenville is the heart of South Carolina's Republican population. But there are plenty of Elton John fans in Greenville.

If one assumes that Elton John is a blue state kind of guy, one wonders why he is welcome in South Carolina.

Unless it's stupid to break things into red and blue categories.

Posted 04.26.07 09:40 AM | Comments (3)

Cofer Black Joins Team Romney

J. Cofer Black, former director of the CIA's Counterterrorism Center (CTC) has joined Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. Black later served as the state department's coordinator for counterterrorism. Black works right now as vice chairman of Blackwater USA, the major DoD security contractor.

Posted 04.26.07 08:58 AM | Comments (4)

POD: Columbia, South Carolina

Noon ET, outside a museum.

Posted 04.26.07 08:47 AM | Comments (2)

Hotline After Dark: Playing Their Trump Cards

TV was all Rosie last night:

FNC's O'Reilly: "As predicted here last January, Ms. O'Donnell is leaving 'The View.' She made the announcement today, making me an oracle" ("O'Reilly Factor," 4/25).

And Donald Trump made the TV rounds:.

Trump: "Rosie O'Donnell is a very self-destructive person. I mean, she's basically a loser" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 4/25).

More: "I don't look as it as a victory or anything else, but, I mean, she was a very self-destructive person. She was a bad person. ... She is a terrible human being. I know her well. And it's very good that she got canned" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 4/25).

THE POST-ANNOUNCEMENT TV TOUR

John McCain and Cindy McCain were on "LKL" last night:

Asked if he'd be a one-termer because of his age, McCain: "I don't know. That's something you've got to decide at the time and I think the major factor is to whether you have done the job or not and whether you think you're still fit to serve, not just because of your health, but primarily because of the kind of job you've done."

On AG Gonzales: "I'm very disappointed in his performance. I think loyalty to the president should enter into his calculations. Could I mention, as we talk about these other candidates ... I'm running on my experience, my vision, my strength, my ability to lead the country. I don't need any on the job training. I'm not the youngest guy in the campaign, but I'm the most experienced. And I'm going to be running on my vision and my strength and I'm prepared to lead. And I think that that's what I'm going to be campaigning on."

CNN's L. King: "Now, did you say you think Gonzales should leave?"

McCain: I think out of loyalty to the president that would probably be the best thing that he could do" (CNN, 4/25).

LADIES NIGHT?

And MSNBC previewed tonight's debate:

Rev. Al Sharpton, on HRC: "I'd be very careful how I handle her tomorrow night, particularly when the whole stage are all men and then Ms. Clinton. You don't even have a woman asking the questions."

MSNBC's Matthews: "God, you got a feminine side, Reverend!" ("Hardball," 4/25). [EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 04.26.07 07:30 AM | Comments (2)

April 25, 2007

Today On Hotline TV: Carolina Dreamin'

The WH candidates are flocking to South Carolina, but will the first-in-the-South primary be upstaged by Iowa and Tsunami Tuesday?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 04.25.07 07:00 PM | Comments (0)

Romney's National Ad Campaign

On the day John McCain committed himself to a presidential campaign, rival Mitt Romney is spending more than $1M to air television advertisements on high-profile cable networks.

Romney will air an ad that brags about his love of vetoing legislation.

He is targeting the influentials -- politically interested Americans who help determine the course of primary races by generating the type of buzz that the media hears, by talking to their neighbors, and by writing checks to candidates.

One would assume that the specific times the ads will run on CNN, Fox News Channel and MSNBC have been calculated for maximum effect by Romney's chief of targeting, Alex Gage.

A Romney aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that a "National cable buy allows for a greater audience size and is cost efficient." It's a "greater bang for your buck reaching a wider group of voters."

The ad "offers specifics on an issue important to Governor Romney as well as voters: spending. The ad speaks to his strength on the fiscal issues," the aide said. Romney has spent more than $2.5M on ads far.[MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 04.25.07 06:54 PM | Comments (2)

Boston Legal On The '08 Race

Posted 04.25.07 04:29 PM | Comments (2)

What A Twitter

If John Boehner is doing it, then maybe Twitter is finally catching on -- or not. This week the House GOP leader joined a small but technologically elite group of pols who use the new technology to communicate.

Twitter, per the New York Times , is a cross between MySpace, "microblogging" and "messaging." That description is about right -- but it takes some experimenting and even frequent messaging on your own to really "get" Twittering. In short, users can set up an account and post short messages for their "friends" and "followers" that can go straight to the Web, IM or mobile phone.

Boehner spokesperson Don Seymour said he started the Twitter account after reading about it online in an effort to "reach a new audience." Okay, but just who is Boehner's target audience? He only has a handful of followers (one of whom authored this post) and it's been reported that only 100K people are on the program.

So what do Boehner and other politicans like John Edwards see in Twitter? It's minimal effort and it's free, so there's nothing to lose but your staff's time and energy. Users are limited to 140 characters, so politicos are (for once) forced to be brief. Active Twitter user and GOP consultant David All called it a "quicker way of sending a message without going through the full process of writing a big long e-mail" in "an age when people don't have much attention."

Nonetheless, it's a trend that's intrigued more pols than Boehner: Edwards has been Twittering regularly for an audience of 2000-plus since early 3/07. Check out the list of Twittering WH '08 candidates, especially the fact that this URL is taken but not in use yet.

Users: JohnEdwards (more than 2K followers, last update more than 1 week ago), RudyGiuliani (friends only), BillRichardson (1 update) and JoeBiden (last update 14 days ago).

No updates yet but the following accounts are taken: ChrisDodd, BarackObama, HillaryClinton, FredThompson, JohnMcCain, BarackObama

Not saved (so get 'em now before they're hacked): MittRomney, MikeHuckabee, SamBrownback, JimGilmore, TomTancredo, TommyThompson, NewtGingrich, ChuckHagel, MikeGravel, DennisKucinich

[SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

Posted 04.25.07 03:12 PM | Comments (0)

Inbox, Outbook, 4/25

COLUMBIA -- Let's take a breath to catch up with the day in politics.

1. John McCain announces. His speech is lauded. This is the key message:

“You can’t sell me on hopelessness. You can’t convince me our problems are insurmountable. Our challenges are an opportunity to write another chapter of American greatness. We must seize it, and those of us privileged to lead America must remember the principles that made us great, have the faith to stand by them, the integrity to honor our public trust, and the courage to keep our promise to put the nation’s interests before our own. Don’t tell me what we can’t do. Don’t tell me we can’t make our country stronger, and the world safer. We can. We must. And when I’m President we will.

There's a tiny dig at Rudy Giuliani in there. Right?

They won't accept that firemen and policemen are unable to communicate with each other in an emergency because they don't have the same radio frequency.

2. Christian groups are gloating that Rosie O'Donnell is leaving The View.

3. John Edwards responds to Rudy's 9/11 comments:

"Rudy Giuliani's suggestion that there is some superior 'Republican' way to fight terrorism is both divisive and plain wrong. He knows better. That's not the kind of leadership he offered in the days immediately after 9/11, and it's not the kind of leadership any American should be offering now.

"As far as the facts are concerned, the current Republican administration led us into a war in Iraq that has made us less safe and undermined the fight against al Qaeda. If that's the 'Republican' way to fight terror, Giuliani should know that the American people are looking for a better plan. That's just one more reason why this election is so important; we need to elect a Democratic president who will end the disastrous diversion of the war in Iraq."

4. The Draft Fred Thompson Committee signs up Bush pioneer and ex-TN GOP chair Beth Harwell.

Posted 04.25.07 03:03 PM | Comments (4)

Vote For Ed!

COLUMBIA, SC -- Marc Lampkin exhaled. His campaign event was running late, and a noonday sun was baking about a hundred students gatherer in a large parking lot next to a museum. A big yellow school bus - -a prop -- needed to park itself, but everyone was standing in the way of the bus. National reporters, like Newsweek's Howard Fineman, were waiting. Chocolate chip cookies provided to satiate the school kids were melting.

No one was listening to Lampkin. "OK," he said to a volunteer, "I need you to grab people and start moving them."

A minute later, with a path cleared, Lampkin circled a staqe full of elected officials one last time. He raised his thumb, trying to get the attention of the first speaker. "Are you ready, Marc?" one of his staff asked him. "Yeah, yeah, yeah." And then he growled softly. And then -- "Ssssh." The crowd quieted down.

Within moments, the first major campaign rally for Ed had begun. This is Lampkin's second presidential campaign; he was a deputy manager for Tx. Gov George W. Bush's campaign in 2000. This year, the campaign he's directing aims to elect Ed -- education reform -- to the pantheon of big-ticket issues that presidential candidates will address in the coming year. www.edin08.com is the cute website.

This is a campaign because there's competition. Environmental groups want the candidates to talk about global warming. The League of Conservation Voters's South Carolina state branch has urged NBC producers to ask a question about climate change tomorrow night. A separate education reform consortium made up of mostly liberal interests released a South Carolina poll earlier this week.

It's common for interest groups to bracket these major presidential events, but it's relatively uncommon for bipartisan groups to try to muscle their way in. That's what Lampkin has been tasked with doing. He's the executive director of something called the Strong American Schools Campaign, which did not really exist until today. Lampkin's boss is basically the richest guy in the world, Bill Gates. Bill and Melinda Gates, along with fellow billionaires Eli and Edythe Broad, have agreed to spend $60 million through the election to promote education reform.

It's a bipartisan effort. Lampkin is a Republican, and he recently recruited former RNC chairman Ken Mehlman to the team. Roy Romer, a former DNC chair and Denver mayor, and the guy charged most recently with fixing schools in Los Angeles, is the public face -- the "chairman."

Education policy tends to polarize politicos. So the foundation is sticking to some broad themes for now, including universal (but not federally-imposed, cookie-cutter) education standards. As in -- kids have to learn stuff. Then -- "effective teachers in every classroom." Even reporters can endorse that concept. (It means, in reality, figuring out a way to train and produce enough effective teachers." And then "more and time and support for learning." Strong American Schools has no position on No Child Left Behind, it's not calling for "merit pay," and its supporters are quick to say that the nature of the reforms themselves is best let to politicians.

Lampkin is sweating in Columbia today because the Democratic presidential candidates will show up tomorrow in Orangeburg to debate. Bill Gates is a big name -- at least one reporter attended the event in the hopes of being able to see him. Alas, the Big Guy wasn't there. But Strong American Schools will be in Simi Valley next week, too. And in South Carolina again in two weeks, when Republicans come back here. And in Nevada later this month. Ed will be everywhere. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 04.25.07 02:36 PM | Comments (1)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"No, not that we know of."

-- Office of Special Counsel's Scott Bloch, asked if Karl Rove has done anything wrong, "American Morning," CNN, 4/25

Posted 04.25.07 12:41 PM | Comments (3)

McCain, HRC Lead In League Poll Of South Carolina

COLUMBIA, SC -- From their Pickens St. headquarters here in the capital, the League of Conservation Voters released a poll this a.m. of South Carolina Democrats.

The poll was conducted April 14-19 by Ayers McHenry & Associates (R firm) and Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D firm). The sponsors are the Conservation Voters of South Carolina and the Coastal Conservation League.

First the carrots: A majority of South Carolinians believe that the next president should prioritize global warming and environmental issues, and over 80% agree that the government has a role to play in reducing emissions.

Now the dessert:

400 Rs and 400 Ds were asked about their presidential choices.

For the Dems:

Clinton: 31
Obama: 27
Edwards: 16
Undecided: 22

For the Republicans:

McCain: 24
Giuliani: 15
Gingrich: 12
Romney: 10
Fred Thompson: 11
Undecided: 22

Leaners were lumped in.

Posted 04.25.07 11:53 AM | Comments (7)

HRC, Obama React To Rudy

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's musings about the Democratic connection to terror drew these responses -- angry responses -- from Sens. Obama and Clinton.

First, Sen. Obama

“Rudy Giuliani today has taken the politics of fear to a new low and I believe Americans are ready to reject those kind of politics. America's mayor should know that when it comes to 9/11 and fighting terrorists, America is united. We know we can win this war based on shared purpose, not the same divisive politics that question your patriotism if you dare to question failed policies that have made us less secure. I think we should focus on strengthening our intelligence, working with local authorities and doing all the things we haven't yet done to keep Americans safe. The threat we face is real, and deserves better than to be the punchline of another political attack.”

Clinton's statement focuses on the administration:

"There are people right now in the world, not just wishing us harm but actively planning and plotting to cause us harm. If the last six years of the Bush Administration have taught us anything, it's that political rhetoric won't do anything to quell those threats. And that America is ready for a change.

"One of the great tragedies of this Administration is that the President failed to keep this country unified after 9/11. We have to protect our country from terrorism – it shouldn't be a Democratic fight or a Republican fight. The plain truth is that this Administration has done too little to protect our ports, make our mass transit safer, and protect our cities. They have isolated us in the world and have let Al Qaeda regroup. The next President is going to be left with these problems and will have to do what it takes to make us safer and bring Democrats and Republicans together around this common mission of protecting our nation. That is exactly what has to be done and what I am ready to do."

Posted 04.25.07 11:47 AM | Comments (2)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Bill to move up primary date is sent to governor

Capitol Fax-- Hynes cries foul

Colorado Pols-- Two can play at that game

Doc's Political Parlor-- 3 on Gore

Georgia Political Digest-- Twist, turns of veto skirmish may lead to state AG

Iowa Politics-- House passes power fund bill

JohnCombest.com -- In political interlude, Bond and Barnes share the love

NhNewslinks.com -- Teachers say no to Lynch amendment

Quorum Report -- Jessica's law approved in Senate

Sayfie's Review -- What happens in Florida when Castro dies?

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Senior property tax freeze to vary county to ...

WisPolitics.com-- Political ad limits return to court

Posted 04.25.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

Hotline After Dark: Cheney (And Fred?) Unleashed

VP Cheney criticized Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid during his Hill visit and got the kind of TV coverage he was looking for:

FNC's Garrett: "Vice-President Cheney, in a rare Capital Hill appearance, and flanked by Senate GOP leaders, infuriated Democrats with his critique of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's new found anti-war activism" ("Special Report," 4/24).

CNN's Bash: "It was an unprecedented moment. The vice president stepped up to the Senate microphones to blast the Democratic majority leader on Iraq" ("AC 360," 4/24).

MSNBC's Stewart: "On his weekly visit to the Capitol, Vice President Cheney today accused the Democrats of pursuing a defeatist strategy in Iraq in order to win votes here at home. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that remark was just the president's chief attack dog lashing out, a vice presidential woof, if you will" ("Countdown," 4/24).

THOMPSON'S STRAIGHT MAN

Actor Sam Waterson made the TV rounds to talk about Unity08, but he was also questioned about co-star Fred Thompson:

Asked if Thompson will run: "Yes, I think that's going to happen."

More: "He's a good man, a very nice man and he's been very, very straightforward with me all the time ... When I've come to him with questions about what was going on in the world, he's given me straightforward answers" ("Situation Room," CNN, 4/24).[EMILY GOODIN]

Posted 04.25.07 07:30 AM | Comments (5)

April 24, 2007

Romney's Deputy Campaign Manager Resigns

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's deputy campaign manager has resigned, a Romney aide confirmed to the Hotline Tuesday.

Jason Roe, who functioned as the campaign's top daily operating officer, told campaign officials today that he planned to leave.

"Jason informed the campaign on Tuesday that he decided to resign, citing familial obligations," said Matt Rhoades, Romney's communications director, in a prepared statement. "We understood and accepted what must have been a hard decision."

Roe, like several top Romney aides, commutes between Boston and Washington. Roe's wife lives in the D.C. area.

Roe was hired by the campaign after serving as chief of staff to Rep. Tom Feeney since 2003. He has also managed several congressional races. On Monday, the St. Petersburg Times reported that FBI agents had asked Feeney about a 2003 golfing trip with convicted ex-lobbyist Jack Abramoff. The Times also reported that the FBI asked the newspaper to turn over an e-mail Roe sent to the paper. The e-mail's contents, according to the paper, included the sentence: "Any assertion that this office knew Abramoff paid for the Scotland trip is a g--d----- lie."

Roe told the Times on Monday that he had not been contacted by the FBI. A Romney aide said that Roe's departure was not linked to his job performance. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 04.24.07 07:26 PM | Comments (8)

The Democrats Debate: LCV's Robert Redford Ad

With the Columbia, SC, debate as a hook, the League of Conservation Voters will begin airing one of this cycle's first issue ads You may see the ad in DC, but if you watch cable near Columbia or Orangeburg, you should see it a few times. The LCV says the size of its ad buy is large, for cable.

To entice reporters to write about the LCV's efforts, the group smartly commissioned a poll that includes data about the politics of the environment as well as -- yes -- horse race numbers in South Carolina. Natch, those won't be released until tomorrow.

Also, the LCV convinced powerful Dems and GOPers in the state legislature to sign a petition urging the '08 Dems to propose a comprehensive global warming solution.

Now -- really. Will any Dem '08er NOT make climate change a part of their platform?

The LCV ad is about climate change, yes, but it's also about making sure that the environmental movement plays an appropriate role in the field winnowing.

There are many interests to choose from and only so much time to talk: a left-leaning education reform organization and, separately, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, are using the debate to make sure that ed reform is a priority.

The LCV ad, by the way, is narrated by actor Robert Redford.

Posted 04.24.07 04:13 PM | Comments (0)

Today On Hotline TV: This Episode Brought To You By The Letters "A" and "G"

How long can Gonzo hang on in the Bush administration's latest Muppet Show... and what other follies are waiting in the wings?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Posted 04.24.07 03:15 PM | Comments (0)

Gilmore announces

From a release:

GILMORE TO OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCE CANDIDACY

IN LIVE WEBCAST FROM IOWA GOP HEADQUARTERS

DES MOINES – Making his third visit to Iowa in three weeks, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore will officially announce as a candidate for President of the United States Thursday in a live webcast from the Republican Party of Iowa headquarters.

Gilmore’s entry in the race comes as conservatives in Iowa and elsewhere continue to express their dissatisfaction with the so-called front runners for the Republican nomination. A tax cutting former Virginia Governor, Gilmore is a leading authority on homeland security and is making the need for a more secure America a central part of his campaign message.

Gilmore’s official announcement of candidacy will be at 12 noon Thursday at GOP headquarters, 621 East 9th Street in Des Moines. The announcement will be broadcast live on the web at www.gilmoreforpresident.com. Following the announcement, Gilmore will answer questions from voters on a live blog chat.

A native of Richmond Virginia, Gilmore, 57, is the son of working class parents. As Governor of Virginia, he became a champion of the taxpayers by reducing taxes on working men and woman by $1.5 billion. He has been awarded the Friend of the Taxpayer Award three times by Americans for Tax Reform. He is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee and is a former Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the U.S. Air Force Academy.

Gilmore, who served as a noncommissioned officer in U.S. Army counter-intelligence and was a tough crime busting prosecutor in Virginia, was Governor of Virginia when terrorists flew a plane into the Pentagon on 9/11. He was appointed by Congress as the chairman of a Congressionally created national commission charged with making recommendations on ways to prevent and respond to terrorism, which became known as the Gilmore Commission.

Posted 04.24.07 01:38 PM | Comments (5)

The Inflated Clinton Poll Theory: Are Clinton And Obama Tied?

Democratic uber-blogger Chris Bowers's Inflated Clinton Poll Theory has crossed our wingspan several times, and it is worth considering. In the end, Bowers's provocative interpretation of some recent polling data may wind up explaining an Obama surge we don't yet see.

In essence, he's noticed that the Rasmussen robopolls tend to show a might tighter national race than polls conducted by live humans at a call center. Generally, Rasmussen claims to screen a much tighter selection of Democrats. Clinton and Obama are tied for the lead in those samples. In most national polls, Clinton has a high-single-digit-to-low-double-digit lead over Obama. Because Rasmussen reportedly draws from a more clued-in sample -- a sample paying close attention to the race -- Bowers notes that Clinton's lead over Obama evaporates.

Any national sample of Democratic primary voters will draw a large portion of responses from New York, California, Florida, Texas, Illinois. There are two ways to interpret the effect of geography on the theory. One is that Clinton does better in these states because voters in these states aren't paying attention to the race as closely as voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

There is some evidence suggesting that voters everywhere are paying attention earlier. It is hard to argue empirically that Democratic primary voters in general do not have enough information about Barack Obama, John Edwards or Hillary Clinton to form their initial, often sticky impressions of the field.

Significantly, primary voters in these large states might actually get to act on their preferences this cycle. In previous cycles, the preferences of voters in these states hasn't mattered. The geographic, demographic, social and economic composition of the early primary vote was probably distinct from the aggregate preferences of Democratic voters nationwide. Who knows which candidate a differently sliced subset -- had this subset been given the power to choose the nominee -- would have chosen. (This is an argument employed by Democrats to add Nevada and South Carolina to the pre-February primary calendar.)

The thinking of some in Clinton's world is that pollsters are including huge numbers of independents in their national samples. Some of the polls suggest that up to 56% of Americans are accurately labeled as Dem primary voters. That can't be right.

The distinction between likely primary voters and self-identified Democrats is important and validly drawn in a state like Iowa, where pollsters have a reliable record of limning those two fields. But in the February 5 states, it means nothing. Where is the evidence showing that self-identified Democrats in those states are predisposed to vote for Hillary Clinton? And how does one figure out the identity of likely primary voters in states whose delegates last mattered in 1992?

Methodologically, it's next to impossible to test this theory with evidence in the public domain. We're not precisely certain how Rasmussen screens its likely voters, we're not certain whether robot pollsters are more reliable or whether they enhance or reduce certain forms of response bias.

One national poll conducted by our colleague Charlie Cook included a subsample of hard core primary voters – the answer to a question about a Hillary Clinton were not significantly different among those two universes.

An unrelated objection to Bowers's theory may be he fails to provide a convincing account as to why Barack Obama would be tied with Hillary Clinton nationally in the first place. Why not John Edwards, whose positions on the issues are more closely aligned with the clued-in activists in the party?

Bowers responds:

" I can't derive an ought from an is, in this case. I don't know why Obama is doing better than Edwards in national polls--I just know that he is. I also know, from data in Pew and elsewhere, that he significantly rises among voters paying close attention, while Edwards does not. That is why I think Obama would benefit from a tighter voter screen more than Edwards."

There is conflicting evidence from the states in which we know voters are paying attention. John Edwards leads in Iowa, but Hillary Clinton still tops most New Hampshire polls. We've seen four South Carolina polls in two weeks, and Hillary Clinton has solid leads in two of them. We don't know enough about the methodology of these polls to say for certain whether a universe of likely primary/caucus goers has been accurately sampled. In Iowa, in fact, it is surprisingly tough to find a reliable sample. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 04.24.07 01:21 PM | Comments (8)

Quote Of The Day

From today's Hotline:

"It was certainly a Freudian slip if I said anything other than Senator Reid."

-- Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), asked if he said "Senator Rude," "American Morning," CNN, 4/24

Posted 04.24.07 12:38 PM | Comments (11)

HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- The big debate: Marching against Prop. 300

Capitol Fax-- Backlash heats up over “Friday Massacre”

Colorado Pols-- Tuesday open thread

Doc's Political Parlor-- GOP email circulates at Dem dinner

Georgia Political Digest-- Lawmakers prep for budget battle

Iowa Politics-- Iowa spending bill swells with pet projects

JohnCombest.com -- Democratic, Republican pairs are on display

NhNewslinks.com -- House approves renewable energy legislation

Quorum Report -- Immigrants could lose comfort zone in Austin

Sayfie's Review -- Romney betting on early Florida primary

Tennessee Politics Blog-- State Asked to Stop Lethal Injection

WisPolitics.com-- Line-item veto bill renewed

Posted 04.24.07 11:50 AM | Comments (0)

McCain Loses ex-PAC director, longtime finance director

Chris Cillizza has the news of two long-time aides to Sen. John McCain who will no longer be working for the campaign.

Our brief analysis: this reflects the strength of McCain's campaign manager, Terry Nelson. Eudy is a long-time member of McCain's inner circle. Early worries about Nelson being one chef among many may not be realized.

Posted 04.24.07 11:10 AM | Comments (0)

Huckabee and Colbert On Mitt Romney

Posted 04.24.07 10:55 AM | Comments (5)

Can't Be Good For The Economy

From an ABC News alert:

SALES OF EXISTING HOMES PLUNGED LAST MONTH BY 8.4 %, THE LARGEST AMOUNT IN NEARLY TWO DECADES, SAYS REAL ESTATE TRADE GROUP

Karl Rove has long feared the sound of the real estate bubble popping.

::::pop::::::

Posted 04.24.07 10:17 AM | Comments (0)

PhRMA's Tauzin To Raise Money For Richardson

NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is hosting a bevy of Washington's elite tomorrow at a $2300 per plate fundraiser in downtown DC.

Among the names on the invitation list: "Hon. Billy Tauzin."

That would be the former Republican congressman from Louisiana, currently the president of The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America.

PhRMA is a bit of a bugbear for most '08ers.

Tauzin's spokesman, Ken Johnson, tells the Hotline: "He's had a long standing personal relationship with Bill dating back to their time on the energy and commerce committees."

Tauzin's presence and friendship reflect personal sentiment, not PhRMA policy, and Tauzin is representing only Tauzin tomorrow night, Johnson said. [MARC AMBINDER]

Posted 04.24.07 10:17 AM | Comments (0)

Newt Clues

1. His funny little think tank has hired a pollster.

2. He won't announce before September. (We're guessting September 14). Why? In late August, he'll be cruising with Oliver North to various Italian ports of call. Gingrich is the special guest on North's "Freedom Cruise", which departs August 19 from Rome and returns August 29.

Posted 04.24.07 09:54 AM | Comments (1)

The Democrats Debate: An Education Initiative In Columbia, SC

Counter-programming:

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Eli and Edyth Broad Foundation will launch an unprecendeted multi-million dollar nonpartisan movement that calls on all presidential candidates to improve America’s public schools. The movement will be unveiled on the eve of the 2008 Presidential debates by parents, teachers, business, civic, political and community leaders, including:

Well, including the Mayor of Columbia, ex-Gov. David Beasley, '04 SEN candidate Inez Tennenbaum, and more.

They're doing this IN South Carolina one day before the debate.

Since it's the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, does that mean we'll be graced by an appearance from ....?

Posted 04.24.07 09:23 AM | Comments (1)

Hotline After Dark: That's My Story & I'm Stickin' To It

Lots of good interviews on TV last night:

Bill Richardson was on "Hardball" where the subject was gun control:

Richardson: "I believe in responsible gun ownership. You know, gun ownership for the West is critically important. But I do support stronger measures, background checks to detect criminal activity. And obviously, in this case, we've learned that mental illness has been very wishy-washy in terms of being able to purchase a gun. We have to tighten those laws. I think we have to enhance penalti