April 17, 2007
2008 Race Rankings: The Democrats
There is no Democratic front-runner. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all have a plausible claim on the nomination.
The usual metrics are all jumbled. Clinton leads the money race, leads in New Hampshire, and tops the national polls. Obama led in one recent South Carolina poll we saw, in media love, and in enthusiasm. Edwards has the tightest message, the best organization in Iowa, and the lead in Iowa.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Republican rankings.
1. No One -- Help wanted. Perhaps the "winner" of the first debate will nudge above the rest.
2.(tie) Hillary Clinton -- New York senator Last Ranking: 1 -- Has a solid lead in national polling ever meant so little, so early? We're not sure the Clinton camp sufficiently steeled itself for the inevitable bruise of Obama's ability to match her in fundraising. The Clinton machine was built by hard work, but also by contingency and circumstance: the magic of doing the right things at the right time. To win, Hillary has to sell herself as a doer (in contrast to Obama's "hoper") and a trailblazer (will she alienate men?). She must also figure out how to survive the early debates without the aura of invincibility that might have kept her rivals from shooting buckshot in her direction and the aura of celebrity that, just six months ago, would have guaranteed that every crowd her campaign built was large and inspired. The good news, though, is that somebody else now has to share the burden of expectations.
2.(tie) Barack Obama -- Illinois senator - - Last Ranking: 2 The Obama campaign has been slow, steady and methodical. At this moment, it doesn't matter that Obama lacks a health care plan, a comprehensive economic policy, any subtle foreign policy vision or even a concrete proposal to move the Middle East peace process forward. But the idea of Obama is worth, it's safe to say, about 20 points in the national polls, and that is not sufficient. Just like Clinton, Obama has earned the privilege to fight for the nomination. That means he must subject himself to the indignities of a presidential campaign. Does he have the plod?
2.5. John Edwards -- Former North Carolina senator Last Ranking: 3 -- From the perspective of pure politics, the cancer announcement and its aftermath were handled adroitly. Edwards has had a good quarter, but he's still stuck between tiers, as our colleague Stu Rothenberg eloquently put it. We are impressed by Edwards' enduring lead in Iowa, where crowds have shown up to Clinton and Obama events, processed them and haven't changed their minds. Still, the Edwards folks have to fortify themselves for the inevitable Iowa falloff. Can they prevent the media from overreacting? Dick Gephardt couldn't survive once he lost his Iowa inevitability. Can Edwards? His final target is Clinton; his immediate enemy is Obama. As you watch him in the debates, keep that in mind.
Continue reading the Democratic race rankings.
Posted at 05:17 PM
Comments
Edwards is beating all republicans in a head to head match ups while Clinton and Obama are not. For example, Edwards is easily beating all republicans in head to head matchups in Quinipiac's last three Ohio polls. He seems very formidable in general election compared to Hillary.
Name | 04.17.07 05:58 PM
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Another thing Obama lacks is originality.
Apparently he's been borrowing liberally from Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick's speeches. Since David Axelrod ran both campaigns, you think he'd try being a little more creative with Barack Obama.
corinne | 04.17.07 08:52 PM
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a couple of points of correction/update. Apparently Obama has made up signficiant ground in the national polls since the filing deadline for Q1. See new CNN, Rasmussen and Usatoday polls. He is anywhere from 2-8 points behind in these polls. Next, he actually exceeded Clinton in fundraising, her senate transfer aside and lastly, he has a foreign policy speech scheduled for next week that was originally scheduled for today but was changed due to the tragedy at VTU.
TNDem | 04.17.07 11:23 PM
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Obama claims his campaign is based on "HOPE" - that begs the question on WHAT is he basing that HOPE on? He has no Health Care plan that he can show. I have no heard him address any issue with a concrete answer. Sorry, but we've already had 6 years and 4 months of government by blind faith ("Trust Me!") and it hasn't worked.
I see Edwards actually involved in trying to make this a better land. His trips to New Orleans to WORK toward cleaning up the mess left over from the Govrnments slipshod response to Katrina. The way he campaigned for an increase in the minimum wage and the right of workers to organize. That he gave out of pocket that students in NC could continue on to college. All above and beyond his campaign for president or even the necessity to do so. When push comes to shove, I'm with Edwards.
Bumpa | 04.18.07 09:30 AM
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Why would you so strongly state that Edwards would lose Iowa? Judging by various factors he's very strong there. Raised the most money from Iowa compared to others; strong lead in all the Iowa polls - bar those done by ARG; strong organization on the ground already; knows how the caucuses work (how important it is to be viable in the maximum number of precints and not just swamp the college precints for instance).
Seems that based on all currently available evidence that he's much more likely to win Iowa than doomed to lose it.
Quinton | 04.18.07 01:17 PM
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Right you are Quinton. As an Iowan I can tell you the flash & platitudes that Clinton & Obama project only go so far with voters here. Edwards "gets it" and understands Iowans want concrete plans and ideas and most importantly "heart" rather than "rock star qualities". John Edwards has the heart and he shows that time and time again to Iowans. He will win.
cherie | 04.18.07 02:59 PM
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For me, it's I no-brainer: I support John Edwards for President-- the most courageous and inspiring candidate, one who truly wants what's best for the people. He and his wife are the best team by far!
Tina Miller | 04.21.07 10:42 PM
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