April 18, 2007
Guns V. Abortion
5 to 4, with Kennedy writing the majority
Dems "got over" gun control -- a majoritarian issue that paradoxically loses them votes, so why can't Republicans get over abortion -- a minoritarian issue that wins them votes in certain instances but might cost them their most attractive presidential candidate? That's the Giuliani argument, anyway.
First, the political establishment seems to care more about abortion than gun control, and the media does as well.
Second, the abortion debate really covers a wider range of ranges, all yoked together under of rubric of questions about human nature. As Katherine Luker has noticed most astutely, cultural conservatives and cultural liberals organize their worlds in fundamentally different ways.
Third, abortion as an issue cuts across socioconomic and regional cleavages. Gun control -- generally --has been a preoccupation of coastal political elites and citydwellers.
Fourth, as Jeanne Cummings notes, the pro-gun lobby is extraorindarily powerful and has a successful track record of beating incumbents who stray -- perhaps the best record in politics. The pro-choice and pro-life groups are organized and powerful compared to almost all interest groups BUT the NRA. It's a question of magnitude.
Still, abortion's salience is overplayed. Some polls we've seen suggest that only a third of Republican primary voters consider it a litmus test issue. Well more than half are pro-life, but enough pro-lifers are willing to vote for pro choicers in certain circumstances. Usually, however, Republican candidates are pro-life, so the trend isn't immediately evident. And this proposition has never been tested on a presidential level. [[MARC AMBINDER]
Posted at 10:45 AM
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