May 31, 2007
Analyze This
Gordon Gekko once told us, “Money itself isn't lost or made; it's simply transferred from one perception to another.”
We’re noticing that on the two major political futures markets -- the Iowa Electronic Market and Intrade -- investors are readjusting their expectations. Rudy Giuliani’s (R) shares have taken a dive in the last months despite his poll numbers only taking a dip. Meanwhile, investors seem to have bought into the Fred Thompson hype.
It’s not by any means scientific, and markets have been known to suffer from a herd mentality (what’s up pets.com), but money talks:
On InTrade, an exchange based in Dublin, Ireland, 2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI shares closed end of April at $32.00 while 2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) shares closed at $15.20. Today, Giuliani’s value has dropped to $25.90/share while Thompson is up to $24.80.
(From Intrade FAQ: “Since our contracts trade between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time to be the percentage probability of that event occurring… Just like the price of Microsoft stock is determined by the buying and selling activities of thousands of traders in the financial markets, the price of our contracts are determined by traders, like you, who are confident enough to back up their opinion by risking real money.”)
Check out the charts after the jump. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF].
Giuliani in May
Thompson in May:
Thompson vs. Giuliani
Posted 05.31.07 02:49 PM | Comments (4)
All Parking Is Local
A number of Dem WH '08ers will head to the Crown Plaza Five Seasons Hotel in Cedar Rapids, IA, 6/2 for the IA Dems' Hall of Fame Dinner. But according to one Dem campaign, it looks like Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have some public relations work to do. The Clinton camp has reserved four blocks of parking space in front of the hotel for the entire day, while Edwards has rented a large parking lot across from the hotel for the entire weekend.
KCRG-TV9, Cedar Rapids' ABC affiliate, reported 5/30 this might pose problems for small businesses and Saturday Farmers Market attendees.
KCRG's Beth Malicki: "If you're headed to downtown Cedar Rapids for the Farmers Market this Saturday, good luck parking along First Avenue. ... The Cedar Rapids Coffee Company is located on First Avenue right across from the U.S. Cellular Center. They boast the best brew in town, but only if you can get there."
Cedar Rapids Coffee Company's Matt Ford: "We have a lot of drive through traffic they just stop in get coffee so they'll just go right on by us down the road to somewhere else."
Malicki: "The owner of a coffee shop called the city and complained and here's the compromise, they won't mark off these parking spots but there will be plenty other meters with hoods on them come Saturday" (5/30).
Clinton and Edwards should remember that all politics is local. Want someone's vote? Don't take away their parking space [KATHERINE LEHR].
Posted 05.31.07 02:40 PM | Comments (2)
Rudy and Hillary, All About The Beverly Hills Benjamins
LOS ANGELES – Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani both aggressively sought 90210 dollars 5/30 p.m. at competing Beverly Hills fundraisers, with the ex-New York mayor drum-beating against Clinton’s “old-thinking” call this week for tax hikes, writes David Finnigan.
“She said that we’re gonna go back to the tax (rules) of the 1990s – it sounds to me like doing government in reverse,” Giuliani said to reporters at the Beverly Hilton. “It would mean tremendous burdens on American businesses; it would mean fewer jobs for Americans. It’s very, very outmoded, old thinking.”
On Fred Thompson (R) being thisclose to entering the primary officially, Giuliani said, “The more voices we have in this race, the more competitive the Republican primary is, the better chances we’re gonna have in the November election to win.”
Up in Beverly Hills’ tony Benedict Canyon a few hours later, Clinton greeted friends at Hilhaven Lodge, the late actress Ingrid Bergman’s onetime address - a 35k-square-foot mansion restored by current owner and filmmaker Brett Ratner (Rush Hour). Pop singer Christina Aguilera was listed as a party co-host along with actors Mike Meyers of Shrek fame and Entourage’s Jeremy Piven, South Park producer Debbie Liebling, Desperate Housewives eye candy Eva Longoria plus Heather Graham and ex-Tom Cruise girlfriend Penelope Cruz.
A separate, Steven Spielberg-led cocktail reception brought Clinton to the home of News Corp. chieftain Peter Chernin, a more intimate event which one source said attracted Spiderman’s Tobey Maguire, actress Jodie Foster and comic actor Ben Stiller, who previously attended Hollywood’s 2/20 Barack Obama fundraiser.
The two gatherings were expected to earn Clinton a combined $1 million, a source said. Also on Wednesday, Clinton picked up the endorsement of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, one of the Democratic Party’s most prominent Hispanic faces. “She’s the one candidate who’s been there,” the mayor said standing next to the senator at a primary school photo op.
His influence on her is evident in the senator's Villaraigosa-rich California campaign staff now led by:
- Campaign director: Ace Smith, ex-aide to Villaraigosa and CA AG/onetime Linda Ronstadt squeeze Jerry Brown.
- Field director: Michael Trujillo, a Villaraigosa inner circle man whose political resume kicked in with his mid-‘90s service under former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, a Republican. Two weeks ago, Trujillo helped Villaraigosa ally Tamar Galatzan win a seat on the L.A. Board of Education, a traditional L.A. political proving ground.
- State political director: Chris Lavery, deputy political director for Lieberman ‘04 plus northeast political director for Gore/Lieberman ‘00.
- Communications director: Luis Vizcaino, a bilingual spokesman for Kerry-Edwards, Villaraigosa, 2000’s Democratic National Convention in L.A. and the national gay-and-lesbian advocacy group Human Rights Campaign. [DAVID FINNIGAN]
Posted 05.31.07 02:34 PM | Comments (0)
Quote Of The Day
From today's Hotline:
"It's going to be like the Academy Awards of presidential debates."
-- WMUR's Andrew Vrees, getting excited, New Hampshire Union Leader, 5/31
Posted 05.31.07 12:32 PM | Comments (0)
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7
New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com
New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ
California -- The Roundup
Missouri -- JohnCombest.com
Illinois -- Capitol Fax
Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog
Florida -- SayfieReview.com
Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor
Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com
Wisconsin -- WisPolitics
Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report
Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest
Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com
Arizona -- AZ Political News
Posted 05.31.07 10:53 AM | Comments (0)
Hotline After Dark: Come On In, The Water's Fine
Talk of the TV last night was focused on the Atlanta man under federal quarantine for tuberculosis and Fred Thompson testing the WH '08 waters.
FNC's Hume: "The actor and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson will move a step closer to a formal presidential campaign June 4th when he forms what's referred to as a testing the waters committee. This will enable him to raise money and hire staff without officially committing to run. Thompson's plans for a June campaign swing through early primary states are still only in the discussion stage and his advisors are quick to say he hasn't made a final decision about running, not yet" ("Special Report," 5/30).
Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN), on whether Thompson is a candidate for sure: "Yes. I think this is a very important first step. ... I'm greatly encouraged, because, having run the draft organization for two months, we signed up over 30,000 people on our Web site to volunteer for him. Many, many members of Congress have been waiting for him to file something, so they could step out there with him. And I think we can do that starting next week. This testing-the-waters committee is Fred's way of letting people know that he's very, very interested in this; he's serious about it. And I think he's a man preparing to become a presidential candidate. And I think he, frankly, is what our base is looking for" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/30).
Washington Post's Milbank: "Let's get rid of this fiction now once and for all. These are just technical terms that the FEC sets up. He is in the race, and if he decides not to run at this point, he is pulling out of the race. So let's not grant him the cover of any of these sort of peculiar terms. He's running" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/30).
CNN's J. King, on which GOPer will be hurt the most: "They all need to worry, for different reasons. I have talked to several people in the McCain campaign today, who say, in the short term, their already struggling finance operation, the fund-raising effort, will likely be hurt by Fred Thompson. Governor Mitt Romney ... is trying to reach out to social conservatives. Many question his flip-flop, they would call it, on abortion. They're looking for a candidate. They say they will wait a little longer now and look at Senator Thompson. If you are Rudy Giuliani, you were the star in this race, the former mayor of New York City, the glamour of his leadership post- 9/11. Now there's a big Hollywood figure coming in, who could take some of the star quality away from Rudy Giuliani. ... Republicans are still looking. They're not locked in yet. Fred Thompson will freeze the race" ("PZ Now," 5/30).
Politico's Allen: "Very respected journalists have made the case that it hurts Romney most, that it hurts Giuliani most, and it hurts McCain most. So you can make any of those cases. But what's interesting is it shows how unsettled this field is" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 5/30).
CNN's Crowley: "He's got an eight-year record in the U.S. Senate. And you can pull out votes that hurt. It's why so many senators fail when they try to grab that brass ring for the White House. ... Candidates always look great when they're not running. Voters love candidates who aren't running. Once they're in the arena, that's when they start to pick apart the record and really see who voted for what when. So obviously any kind of paper trial is going to be rife with a number things for people to pick on. So it only gets harder from here when Fred Thompson jumps in" ("PZ Now," 5/30).
A FAMILY AFFAIR
John McCain appeared on the "O'Reilly Factor" last night to talk about immigration.
McCain, on the immigration bill: "Right now, it's de facto amnesty because we have 12 million people who are here illegally. ... We are doing everything short of deportation. We're talking about a 13-year period. We're talking about fines. We're talking about learning English. We're doing literally everything that I can think of to make sure that illegal behavior is punished" (FNC, 5/30).
Meanwhile, FNC's Van Susteren interviewed Cindy McCain in the McCain's AZ condo.
C. McCain, on J. McCain running again: "It's fine. I'm happy. It was, I tell you, it was a difficult decision for me, though. Because ... we'd been through it once and with our -- you know, kids were in motion and everything was going on and all that and so it was, for me it was a big decision, but I'm here and glad to be here."
On the family discussion prior to running: "We sat down at Christmas and, believe it or not, the kids have a lot of questions."
On why Cocoa the dog is J. McCain's favorite pet: "It's something about him. He thinks he looks like a circus dog. And so he just clicked with him" ("On The Record," 5/30). [KATHERINE LEHR]
Posted 05.31.07 08:51 AM | Comments (2)
May 30, 2007
Quote Of The Day
From today's Hotline:
"I'm deeply concerned about America losing its soul."
-- Pres. Bush on the immigration debate, McClatchy, 5/29
Posted 05.30.07 12:36 PM | Comments (4)
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7
New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com
New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ
California -- The Roundup
Missouri -- JohnCombest.com
Illinois -- Capitol Fax
Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog
Florida -- SayfieReview.com
Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor
Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com
Wisconsin -- WisPolitics
Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report
Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest
Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com
Arizona -- AZ Political News
Posted 05.30.07 10:36 AM | Comments (0)
Hotline After Dark: Domestic Discord
Aside from talk about Lindsay Lohan's DUI and Rosie O'Donnell leaving "The View," last night's TV focused on May being the deadliest month for U.S. troops in Iraq since Dec.' 04, as well as Pres. Bush imposing tougher sanctions on the gov't of Sudan. There was also a fair amount on WH '08ers:
CNN's Dobbs: "The middle class in this country making it to the top of the presidential campaign agendas, at least for today. Presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton campaigning in New Hampshire. Both Senator Clinton and Senator Barack Obama turning their attention to the plight of our embattled middle class. Senator Clinton attacked excessive corporate profits. Senator Obama unveiled a vision for health care" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/29).
Fortune's Easton: "I think the most interesting thing about these speeches was the extent to which both candidates borrowed from the No. 2 candidate we saw there, John Edwards. In the case of Hillary Clinton there was almost a 'to America' speech theme running throughout her remarks today. You know, the haves and the have-nots, the trickle-down hasn't occurred and how can we address that. She even talks about unions. ... Then Barack Obama borrowed from Edwards on the healthcare plan. The details are different, yes. But it involves both their healthcare plans are large government rolls that would be subsidized by business taxes and increasing taxes on individuals at the wealthy end. ... To me it's like they're all joined at the hip on domestic policy, in particular, and so the race starts to become who do you like better, who you trust better, who do you believe?" ("Special Report," FNC, 5/29).
WashingtonPost.com's Cillizza: "In the last two hours after Obama put out his plan, I got a statement from both Edwards and Clinton, both of whom expressed some skepticism subtly, but still skepticism that Obama's plan does not mandate universal coverage, that this would not cover everyone. ... That's the danger when you put out a big comprehensive plan. It gives a lot of people a lot of time to shoot at it. ... He has been criticized that his resume is too thin. When he comes out and puts out a policy proposal to show he has some depth to his position, people say it's wrong. ... So he's in a catch 22. He has to roll out some big policy proposals, but he also has to realize that he's going to have to weather some criticism from his opponents who don't think it's enough or think it's too much" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/29).
CNN's Bash, on why Obama and HRC are shifting to domestic issues: "It's one of the things that voters are yearning to hear about from candidates. Just being here in New Hampshire, certainly the Iraq War tops the list in terms of things that really give voters anxiety, but when it comes to issues close to home, the economy is right there behind it" ("Situation Room," 5/29).
ALRIGHT, WE GET IT
Al Gore was on "Countdown" last night to talk about his book, but conversation turned to WH '08.
Gore, on Newsweek reporting that a close friend and financial backer of Gore's says Gore is 50-50 about running: "Whoever that was doesn't reflect my thinking. And I can't even answer the question without sounding repetitious. You know my answer. I'm not thinking about running. I don't expect to run. Yes, I haven't ruled out the possibility at some point in the future. But I'm not keeping that exception alive to be coy. I really don't expect to be a candidate again. But here we are, 500 days or so before the next election. I don't see why, you know, everybody has to close the doors and say, OK, let's narrow the field and make your bets" (MSNBC, 5/29). [KATHERINE LEHR]
Posted 05.30.07 08:31 AM | Comments (1)
May 29, 2007
Quote Of The Day
From today's Hotline:
"To me it's good natured ribbing."
-- Ex-Mary Landrieu spokesperson Rich Masters, on Dems calling Bobby Jindal "Piyush," New Orleans Times-Picayune, 5/28
Posted 05.29.07 12:46 PM | Comments (5)
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7
New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com
New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ
California -- The Roundup
Missouri -- JohnCombest.com
Illinois -- Capitol Fax
Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog
Florida -- SayfieReview.com
Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor
Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com
Wisconsin -- WisPolitics
Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report
Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest
Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com
Arizona -- AZ Political News
Posted 05.29.07 10:45 AM | Comments (0)
May 25, 2007
McCain Slaps Obama... And Gives Him Flak
From a statement:
"While Senator Obama's two years in the U.S. Senate certainly entitle him to vote against funding our troops, my service and experience combined with conversations with military leaders on the ground in Iraq lead me to believe that we must give this new strategy a chance to succeed because the consequences of failure would be catastrophic to our nation's security."By the way, Senator Obama, it's a 'flak' jacket, not a 'flack' jacket."
Posted 05.25.07 01:57 PM | Comments (24)
Obama Rebuts
Sen. Barack Obama's just released some paper on Sen. John McCain and Gov. Mitt Romney:
“This country is united in our support for our troops, but we also owe them a plan to relieve them of the burden of policing someone else’s civil war. Governor Romney and Senator McCain clearly believe the course we are on in Iraq is working, but I do not.“And if there ever was a reflection of that it's the fact that Senator McCain required a flack jacket, ten armored Humvees, two Apache attack helicopters, and 100 soldiers with rifles by his side to stroll through a market in Baghdad just a few weeks ago.
“Governor Romney and Senator McCain are still supporting a war that has cost us thousands of lives, made us less safe in the world, and resulted in a resurgence of al-Qaeda. It is time to end this war so that we can redeploy our forces to focus on the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 and all those who plan to do us harm.”
Posted 05.25.07 12:44 PM | Comments (4)
On Call Wire 5/25
Again, with homages to the WSJ's Washington Wire:
What did Ronald Reagan think of Rudy Giuliani? In the former president's own words: "Crazy." Now -- we're sure Reagan had kinder words in private. But it's kind of funny, anyway.
Per the Hotline's Wake Up Call: Mitt Romney said "he supports" allowing illegal immigrants "to apply to become permanent residents" but "opposes current legislation that would allow them to do just that" (Palm Beach Post). Give Mitt Romney a hard time if you want, but also ask how Rudy Giuliani would replace the Z Visa program...
Speaking of Romney: Hotline On Call wants to know: who's the hottest Romney son?
Asked at a news conference in Lakeland how he would specifically change the language, Romney said, "I'm not, here, going to describe language of a piece of legislation. I'm not a legislator, at least not currently, so I'm not going to give you legislative language."
MSNBC's First Read:
*** Safety Dance: The safe thing to do if you're a Democrat running for president was to do what Clinton, Dodd, and Obama did: vote against the Iraq supplemental. But ask yourself this question: What if Clinton had voted for it? There was plenty of cover (including Al Gore, by the way), and she might have gotten very "presidential" type coverage since she was doing the supposedly unpopular thing. To put it another way, will anti-Iraq Democrats ever give her the credit for this vote?
BTW: The RNC Research Shop sent around a memo entitled "THE SHAMEFUL SWITCH"
Posted 05.25.07 12:30 PM | Comments (1)
Now Romney Weighs In On Clinton And Obama
"At a time when the men and women of our military fighting terrorism around the globe needed them most, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama cast a vote that singularly defines their lack of leadership and serves as a glaring example of an unrealistic and inexperienced worldview on national security that is regrettably shared by too many of their fellow Capitol Hill Democrats."Voting against our troops during a time of war shows the American people that the leaders of the Democrat Party will abandon principle in favor of political positioning.
"Their votes render them undependable in the eyes of the men and women of the United States military and the American people."
Posted 05.25.07 10:54 AM | Comments (6)
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7
New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com
New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ
California -- The Roundup
Missouri -- JohnCombest.com
Illinois -- Capitol Fax
Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog
Florida -- SayfieReview.com
Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor
Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com
Wisconsin -- WisPolitics
Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report
Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest
Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com
Arizona -- AZ Political News
Posted 05.25.07 10:50 AM | Comments (0)
McCain Lashes Clinton, Obama On War Vote
From a paper statement:
"I was very disappointed to see Senator Obama and Senator Clinton embrace the policy of surrender by voting against funds to support our brave men and women fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"This vote may win favor with MoveOn and liberal primary voters, but it's the equivalent of waving a white flag to al Qaeda."
Posted 05.25.07 10:20 AM | Comments (1)
Fred Thompson And Virginia Tech
Update: Thompson's spokesman, Mark Corallo, says Thompson was not, in fact, referring to VA Tech.
Last night, aspiring presidential hopeful Fred Thompson said
"We're are now living in a nation that is beset by suicidal maniacs..."
He proceeded to criticize the Senate immigration bill.
Was he referring to Cho Seung-Hui's rampage?
Because if he was, Thompson is positioning himself well to the right of Tom Tancredo on immigration. Hui was a legal immigrant who acheived permanent resident status-- and, anyway, unless Thompson is a cultural essentialist, was, at the time of his shootings, more of an American than he was a Korean. Anyway, is Thompson saying that every legal immigrant is a potential Cho? What does VA Tech have to do with amnesty for illegal immigrants?
Or maybe Thompson's referring to hidden terror cells in the US.
Or maybe he meant to say "we are living in a WORLD"... which would make much more sense.[MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 05.25.07 10:11 AM | Comments (9)
Gore At The NH Dem Convention
In spirit.
From an e-mail:
This is Rep. Andrew Edwards of Nashua…I’m writing to let you all know of something exciting that’s going to happen at the State Party Convention on Saturday, June 2nd. Some of you have expressed a willingness to get Al Gore to run, others of you have been mentioned as people who could be interested in this.
We have arranged to get a Draft Gore table at the convention, through the national organization that has been organizing the draft movement across the country. We will be bringing up folks from the different groups down in Massachusetts who just recently did this at their own state party convention. This occasion will be much greater in terms of impact and national media attention. They will be providing resources like pins, buttons, stickers, posters, etc., what we need to do is get folks at the convention to take notice.
There are a number of compelling reasons for an Al Gore presidency, and this is the perfect opportunity to begin mobilizing a draft campaign in NH.
- His Oscar victory has generated substantial interest and the media has since been following his every move (and his weight)
- He is polling in the double digits in major primary states across the country where he isn’t even on the ballot!
- His Alliance for Climate Protection has reached 500,000 signatures and his Live Earth concerts this summer will reach 2 billion people
- He could possibly be awarded the Nobel Prize in October, a critical time and still before the filing deadline
- He has the resources and the support to avoid the unusually accelerated primary process we’re experiencing
and most importantly…
- His new book is generating a ton of interest and has brought him back into the political dialogue in this country.
If you can attend the convention, we want to have an impressive showing of Gore support inside and outside the convention hall. Those who don’t need/want to pay to get inside, we will have signs to be held outside and flyers to handout. If you are attending the event as a delegate or guest, we’d love you to hang around and work at the Gore table, but most importantly, spread the message by word of mouth. There are so many people all across the state who are waiting to see if Gore will run, and every day we find a new reason to believe that this can happen. We need to provide an outlet for that interest and channel this energy into an organized grassroots movement.
If you are at all interested in getting involved with the movement, please contact myself or Rep. Jeff Fontas:
Jeffrey.Fontas@leg.state.nh.us
Andrew.Edwards@leg.state.nh.us
Posted 05.25.07 10:00 AM | Comments (1)
Those Two New Hillary Clinton Books
Based on this Washington Post article, On Call agrees with the Politico's Ben Smith: where's the there there?
Revelations are said to be:
Ooh -- HRC is ambitious. And ruthless. Ambitious people can be ruthless.
Ooh -- HRC fought to keep her family's private life private.
Ooh -- Bill Clinton had extramarital affairs.
Ooh -- the Clintons were worried about Whitewater.
Don't get us wrong: the books themselves we will buy and plow through, and given the pedigree of the authors: Carl Bernstein, Don Van Natta, Jeff Gerth -- they are certain to be well-reported and worth the money.
Two points of interest:
-- that HRC didn't read the 2002 NIE (although it's hard to tell how her perusal of that document would have changed her vote). Also -- this has been reported before.
-- Van Natta/Gerth's chronicle of her Senate career.
But the only thing that really matters, politically, are new relevations about Clinton's marriage -- or revelations of recent misconduct by Pres. Clinton. There aren't any.
Other knowledge about Hillary Clinton is overdetermined, in sociological lingo. And there just aren't too many stories left to tell about Hillary Clinton, arguably the most scrutinized American political figure of the past 15 years.
It's hard to imagine we'll be talking about these books in August. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 05.25.07 09:51 AM | Comments (2)
The Netroots And War-Funders
We've taken a gander at reactions in the liberal blogosphere to the Democrats' capitulation on war funding, and they are predictably inner-directed and selfish -- and we don't mean that in a bad way.
Dem leaders are "lying whore[s]"; have "bizarre fear[s]", they're more afraid of Bush than they are of a "demoralized grassroots base"; they're avatars of "learned helplessness."
Maybe so. To the netroots' collective credit, they don't seem to buy the argument that political realities "forced" the Democratic leadership to drop withdrawal dates. Political realities are not like the laws of physics; they can be changed, and, indeed, are unequivocally useful today for Democrats, rather than Republicans. But they aren't whimsical social constructions.
It's a bit inaccurate to say that Americans by and large support legislation that would cut off funds for the troops. Yes, yes, that's the GOP frame, but Dems bought into it -- cutting off funds being the only way to exercise their constitutional authority.
Matthew Yglesias cites a poll showing that upwards of 60% percent of Americans favor a no-strings-attached funding bill with benchmarks -- exactly what passed yesterday -- to inexplicably argue that Democrats were too afraid of a confrontation with President Bush over the war to stand up for what a majority of Americans elected them to do.
The upside for Dems is that they'll simply have to wait about three months before they (probably) get their way, here.
Posted 05.25.07 09:35 AM | Comments (0)
McCain Meets With Firefighters' President
Last night, Sen. John McCain had dinner with Int'l Assoc. of FireFighters pres. Harold Schaitberger. We're told that McCain asked to meet with Schaitberger on the heels of the senator's appearance at a DC presidential forum earlier in March.
Schaitberger's union, the first to endorse John Kerry in '04, intends to be rigorously bipartisan this cycle, although the iAFF does not much like ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
What did they talk about? We're not sure -- but we bet immigration came up. There's a disconnect between many labor leaders and the Dem leadership on the merits on the Senate compromise, and Schaitberger is said to oppose the bill that McCain is touting. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 05.25.07 09:14 AM | Comments (0)
Biden's Yes Vote On The War Funding Bill
Sen. Joe Biden was the only '08 Dem to vote yes last night.
An aide e-mails some context:
First, as you know, Biden was the ONLY Democratic presidential candidate in the Senate to vote for the supplemental. In remarks on the floor following the vote, he said: "The President may be prepared to play a game of political chicken with the well-being of our troops. I am not. I will not." He also again called for the President to make building and deploying MRAPs a national priority.
Posted 05.25.07 08:53 AM | Comments (1)
Hotline After Dark: War? Funding?
Last night, TV was dominated by the vote on the Iraq war funding bill.
CNN's J. King: "The House and Senate tonight passing legislation that funds the war in Iraq, but doesn't impose a timetable for bringing the troops home. The political impact is potentially immense, especially on the presidential ambitions of two of the senators voting, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton" ("AC 360," 5/24).
CNN's Bash, on HRC and Obama: "It was high drama, to say the least. Both of those senators had made two promises that were conflicting, one promise that they would continue to fund troops in harm's way, but another promise that they would do whatever possible to end the war in Iraq. So, they essentially tonight had to pick one of the promises to keep and one to break. And they didn't vote until the very end of this Senate vote tonight. They both, in the end, voted no. And that is exactly, of course, how staunchly anti-war Democrats, who are going to be voting in the primaries in 2008, wanted them to vote" ("AC 360," 5/24).
Dem strategist Paul Begala: "I think both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, neither of them covered themselves with glory here. This bill was not unexpected. It was not a deal that would suddenly shock anybody. And the fact that they could not decide until just right before the vote, where they were going to be, I think, is going to upset a lot of their supporters. And maybe this gives new oxygen to some of the stronger, clearer anti-war candidates" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/24).
Bash, on John McCain: "He did vote and he did vote yes. He certainly has missed a lot of votes, but this one he made sure to here for" ("PZ Now," 5/24).
CNN's Malveaux, on the WH's reaction: "It considers it a victory in the sense that there are no timelines for troop withdrawal. That was a big deal for the administration. But they are certainly not gloating here. It is a short-term victory. Just a couple months away, Democrats are going to hold this administration once again accountable and challenge whether or not they're going to be funding additional troops for more and more months ahead" ("PZ Now," 5/24).
Dem strategist Julie Roginsky: "I am sick over this. They got elected with a mandate to do something. The fact that they've done nothing. The fact they won't even have benchmarks that are enforceable. Never mind putting a stop to this war is not what the Democrats were elected to do" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 5/24).
GOP strategist Karen Hanretty: "I think they're going to have a short-term impact from you know the Daily Kos and all the left-wing bloggers. But my bigger concern is that in the long run being basically
September, this fall, I think what the Democrats are doing is they're just stalling. It's just a game of waiting to get enough moderate Republicans who will join with them so that this fall they can claim victory with a bipartisan bill that has timetables in it. And I wouldn't be surprised if in fact they get that" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 5/24).
MSNBC's Abrams: "It's time to look back at today's winners and losers. Winner, President Bush for establishing expectations today that ensure he'll be right about Iraq, no matter what happens. Either the violence escalates this summer, as he predicted this morning, or the situation gets better, as he's been suggesting all along. Loser, President Bush for establishing expectations today that ensure he'll be right about Iraq" ("Scarborough Country," 5/24).
CNN's Dobbs: "The House of Representatives has just voted to approve an amendment to the war funding bill. That amendment will raise, as well, the minimum wage for the first time in a decade. This increase is a key part of the Democratic legislative program that has been stalled for some time now" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/24). [KATHERINE LEHR]
Posted 05.25.07 08:22 AM | Comments (0)
Quote Of The Day
From today's Hotline:
"We're living in a nation beset by suicidal maniacs."
-- Fred Thompson, letting loose on the immigration bill, Greenwich Time, 5/25
Posted 05.25.07 01:00 AM | Comments (0)
May 24, 2007
On Call Wire 5/24
With homage to The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire, here's a brief digest of the rest of the day's political news:
Mitt Romney likes gays and immigrations; John Edwards likes gay immigrants. And check out this very angry post to the Washington Blade's blog about Edwards, Shrum, and one's comfort level with gays.
President George W. Bush Is Crapped Upon; literally. The clip isn't yet on YouTube. Bet they don't teach this stuff at Beltville.
Rudy Giuliani Announces “All-American” fundraising team; young, under-45 professionals participate in tiered fundraising system with max of $1M. Goal is to engage new generation of political donors. Bryan Pickens, son of major Rudy donor Boone Pickens, is nat'l chair. Mitt Romney's next major young donor event is scheduled for June 7.
Posted 05.24.07 04:31 PM | Comments (0)
Ask Mitt Anything About Gays And Immigration
Sort of a fascinating response from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney to a question from an AP reporter about anti-gay discrimination.
"I oppose discrimination against gay people," Romney said. "I am not anti-gay. I know there are some Republicans, or some people in the country who are looking for someone who is anti-gay and that's not me."
Wonder who he's referring to? And can anyone really dispute his point -- that there are some Republicans who are looking for a candidate who does find homosexuality immoral and is willing to say so?
On immigration, Romney took a step towards answering the question posed to him by the press and by John McCain -- no, Kevin Madden, not the same entity -- how would he handle the 12M illegals already in the country?
"I don't think that we're going to round up 11 or 12 or however many million people and bus them out of the country. That's not what I'm talking about," Romney said. "Those who committed felonies, of course, would be deported. Those who require government assistance to stay here would surely need to get off government assistance and ultimately could not remain here on government assistance."
Still hasn't really answered the question, but the thoughts above limit his options a bit.
Posted 05.24.07 04:19 PM | Comments (4)
On The Air Update
A birdie with access to the latest media buys gives us this rundown:
Richardson placed 5/29-6/4 in Iowa and New Hampshire. He has upped his buy in IA to 500-600 GRPs in each major market and 50-100 GRPs in smaller markets. In NH, his buy remains similar to previous weeks, about 200 GRPs for the flight.Romney placed 5/25-5/29 and 5/30-6/5 in South Carolina (all cable) and 5/30-6/5 in Iowa (all cable). This is about 25-50 GRPs per market per week in SC and 50-100 GRPs per market in Iowa.
GRPs = gross ratings points -- a measure of how many people see the ads
flight = the duration of the ads
place = to purchase ad time.
cable = what we all watched before DirectTV.
Posted 05.24.07 03:32 PM | Comments (0)
Hillary And Iowa: How's It Playing?
Well, it's a big story.
Don't ask us why the Des Moines Register placed the Hillary story next to a picture of some guy who looks as if he's about to be kicked in the gazoingas.
Also: on TV: the largest station in the Sioux City area:
The most influential radio news operation in IA...
Posted 05.24.07 01:11 PM | Comments (0)
Quote Of The Day
From today's Hotline:
"If there's wrongdoing, it will be taken care of."
-- Pres. Bush, on fired prosecutor probes, AP, 5/24
Posted 05.24.07 12:41 PM | Comments (0)
An Update From HRC About Her Campaign Theme Song
Posted 05.24.07 11:31 AM | Comments (7)
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7
New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com
New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ
California -- The Roundup
Missouri -- JohnCombest.com
Illinois -- Capitol Fax
Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog
Florida -- SayfieReview.com
Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor
Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com
Wisconsin -- WisPolitics
Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report
Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest
Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com
Arizona -- AZ Political News
Posted 05.24.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)
Rudy's Endorsed By Speaker Of Georgia House
Kind of a big Feb. 5 get for the Giuliani campaign:
The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee today announced that Speaker of the Georgia House of Representatives Glenn Richardson will serve as the campaign’s Georgia Chairman. The campaign also unveiled endorsements from a host of Georgia elected and former Republican party officials in the first round of announcements for the Mayor’s Georgia leadership team.
He's also the chairman of the overlooked but powerful Southern Legislative Conference (SLC) and the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC).
Mr. Richardson takes credit for endursing passage of the "Woman's Right To Know Act," which requires women to get fetal ultrasounds before they get abortions.
Posted 05.24.07 10:09 AM | Comments (0)
Our Daily Ron Paul Post
We can't get enough. We're masochists. But the e-mails we get are so entertaining. So -- our daily dose of Ron Paul.
From MSNBC's First Read:
*** Let’s Get Ready To Ron-ble: Ron Paul -- yes, Ron Paul -- steps into the political spotlight with a press conference at the National Press Club. Appearing with former CIA official Michael Scheuer, ex-head of its Bin Laden Unit, Paul finally punches back at Giuliani after the ex-mayor blasted him at last week's GOP debate for stating that the US presence in the Middle East was responsible for 9/11.
Posted 05.24.07 09:05 AM | Comments (13)
Inbox, Outbox 5/24: McCain's Kissed By The Union Leader
Lord he was born a gambling man. Try to make a difference, doing the best he can.
Have you ever read a New Hampshire Union Leader editorial that's friendly to Sen. John McCain? You're in for a treat. The headline even uses a favorite metaphor of McCain's chief strategist, John Weaver: "The Gambler: John McCain Goes All In"
We disagree with the senator about the immigration bill. But we admire his determination to do what he believes is right even at great personal risk. McCain is gambling his political career on his belief that Americans want a leader, not a follower. So far, no other presidential candidate has had the guts to do the same.
In other words, McCain's displaying guys and character. Another good headline from SC: "McCain Cites Terrorists As Reason To Push Immigration Bill"
2. 6 Days and no word from the Romney campaign as to what they would replace the Z visa program with. Yes, we're repeating a McCain talking point. But it's still a reasonable question. The Florida press corps is picking up the trail. And someone asked Al Cardenas, a key Romney adviser, former state party chair, and um, Cuban-American, what he thinks: Romney advisor Al Cárdenas, a Cuban-American lawyer and former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said:
"The criticism he has received has been over the top and unfair. . . . I am confident that he will [put] forward an immigration proposal that Floridians and Hispanics alike will find fair.''
Posted 05.24.07 08:52 AM | Comments (1)
Hotline After Dark: Tell Me Something Goodling
Most of last night's TV concentrated on the feud between "The View"'s Rosie O'Donnell and Elisabeth Hasselbeck, as well as Ex-DoJ WH liaison Monica Goodling's testimony before the House Jud Cmte 5/23.
MSNBC's Shuster: "Monica Goodling testified she was not very involved in the seemingly political firings of federal prosecutors. But, while trying to distance herself from the scandal, Goodling
damaged Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and outgoing Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty" ("Hardball," 5/23).
FNC's Angle: "Democratic critics were hoping Goodling's testimony would finally validate their suspicions of some kind of wrongdoing at the White House, especially by Karl Rove. ... But if that was the expectation, Goodling's testimony was an enormous disappointment" ("Special Report," 5/23).
Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL): "We continue to have reasons to believe that these U.S. attorneys were fired because of, in some instances, political pressure from outside the department, and that the Department of Justice didn't give us the straight story. ... We need to hear from Karl Rove and some of the White House to close this matter out" ("Newshour," PBS, 5/23).
CNN's Toobin: "To think that those great lawyers work for a fifth rate lawyer like Monica Goodling, you know, with her seventh rate law school education, I mean, it's just appalling to think how much power a woman like that has" ("AC 360," 5/23).
CNN's Arena: "Republicans keep trying to end this all. Today, complaining about the amount of money that's being spent on this investigation without any proof of any illegal activity. But there is little chance of that happening" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/23).
Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA): "The fact of the matter is, there is no illegality that has been presented with one iota of evidence with respect to the hiring or firing of these U.S. attorneys" ("Newshour," PBS, 5/23).
RUNNING ON FAITH
Mike Huckabee was on "Hannity & Colmes" last night to discuss why he canceled his appearance at a Baptist conference organized by Jimmy Carter.
Huckabee: "I think that to call a sitting president the worst in history, that's pretty much over the top.
... I think Jimmy Carter is a great humanitarian. And I even value him as a Christian brother. This isn't a personal thing about Jimmy Carter. But I just feel uncomfortable going on a program that was presented to me as a nonpolitical program. And then these comments this weekend seemed to have such an edge to them that I thought it's just better for me to pull away."
Asked if giving Carter the benefit of the doubt would be the Christian thing to do: "Well, the Christian thing to do is to continue to love him but to not go on the program with him" (FNC, 5/23).
EASIER SAID THAN DONE?
John Edwards was in the "Situation Room" last night to talk about Iraq.
Edwards, on the Dems: "What they should do is continue to submit funding bills supporting the troops to the president with a timetable for withdrawal. And if the president of the United States, George Bush, continues to veto those bills, it's the president who's deciding he's not going to fund the troops. And ultimately that would actually require George Bush to start withdrawing troops from Iraq."
On his critics suggesting it's easy for him to say that since he's not in the Congress right now: "Can I just say, respectfully, that I would disagree with that? First of all, I've been in that position. I have, in the past, voted against the funding bill, $87 billion, when I knew that George Bush was on the wrong course in Iraq. And, secondly, and I think more importantly, I'm running for president of the United States. All of us running for president will be held accountable, ultimately to voters, for the positions that we've taken."
On an increase in the minimum wage being included in the legislation: "Lord knows I'm for raising the minimum wage. Anyway we can get that done is a good thing. But it shouldn't be tied to what's happening in Iraq. What we should be doing in Iraq is standing our ground, stopping what this president is doing, forcing his hand and forcing him to withdraw troops from Iraq" (CNN, 5/23). [KATHERINE LEHR]
Posted 05.24.07 08:28 AM | Comments (0)
May 23, 2007
The Hillary Memo: Further Ungrounded Speculation
Let's throw out one more thought: the national press corps will be appropriately skeptical that no one else in the Clinton campaign has ever thought about ditching Iowa. And they'll wonder why Mike Henry, entrusted with the keys to the kingdom, all the internal polling data, privy to all the strategic discussions -- why only Mike Henry came to the conclusion that winning Iowa would be tough?
Flipping the coin, isn't it also true that expectations that HRC will win -- and needs to win -- Iowa are forever diminished? Look at both sides of the coin together: does HRC now need to win Iowa to win the nomination? Will the press say that she does? Probably not, and probably not.
Some updates:
David Yepsen notes that the Clinton campaign has doubled its field staff in Iowa -- "hardly the actions of a campaign preparing to pull up stakes and bypass Iowa." Still, he notes:
The bottom line is she’s headed for a loss in Iowa next year unless she and her campaign can somehow turn things around.
The Iowa Democratic Party's communications director, Carrie Giddins, released a statement:
“Iowa is more important than ever in this election cycle. Iowa has seen the highest level of political activity at this early point in history. Biden, Obama and Edwards will be here this weekend, and so will Senator Clinton. And next weekend she will join Senator Biden, Senator Dodd, Senator Edwards and Governor Richardson for the first major caucus event of the year at the Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame Dinner in Cedar Rapids. Bypassing Iowa would be a fatal mistake for any campaign to make.”
Posted 05.23.07 05:37 PM | Comments (2)
Additional Thoughts On The Clinton Memo
The memo came from a rival campaign who laundered it through an intermediary. So -- some rival campaign operative is responsible for forcing the Clinton campaign's hand in Iowa.
A bad day for Tom Vilsack, the ex-IA Gov who dropped out to support Hillary Clinton. And where is Vilsack today? He's campaign for HRC in New Hampshire.
Posted 05.23.07 04:27 PM | Comments (4)
McCain Loses South Carolina Political Director
Brad Henry, the political director for Sen. John McCain in South Carolina, has left the campaign.
We're told that Henry has returned to the fold of his former boss, AG Henry McMaster, and will serve as campaign manager and finance director for the AG's re-election. He'll also continue to advise the McCain team. McMaster endorsed McCain late last fall.
Not sure what to make of this -- just last week, senior McCain aides in DC were raving about Henry.
The well-regarded Trey Walker remains McCain's SC state director.
Posted 05.23.07 03:48 PM | Comments (6)
Reading Speeches So You Don't Have To: John Edwards And Smart Power
A Strong Military for a New Century
Council on Foreign Relations
New York, New York
May 23, 2007
Key line: "The worst thing about the Global War on Terror approach is that it has backfired—our military has been strained to the breaking point and the threat from terrorism has grown. We need a post-Bush, post-9/11, post-Iraq American military that is mission-focused on protecting Americans from 21st century threats, not misused for discredited ideological pursuits. We need to recognize that we have far more powerful weapons available to us than just bombs, and we need to bring them to bear. We need to reengage the world with the full weight of our moral leadership."
Not all troops out of the region: "I believe that once we are out of Iraq, the U.S. must retain sufficient forces in the region to prevent a genocide, deter a regional spillover of the civil war, and prevent an Al Qaeda safe haven. We will most likely need to retain Quick Reaction Forces in Kuwait and in the Persian Gulf. We will also need some presence in Baghdad, inside the Green Zone, to protect the American Embassy and other personnel. Finally, we will need a diplomatic offensive to engage the rest of the world in Iraq’s future—including Middle Eastern nations and our allies in Europe."
Obligatory Harry Truman reference: "But Americans like President Harry Truman and General George Marshall saw the truth: that it would require not only America’s military might, but our ingenuity, our allies, and our generosity to rebuild Europe and keep it safe from tyrants who would prey on poverty and resentment. Our leaders resisted the imperial temptation to force our will by virtue of our unmatched strength. Instead, they built bonds of trust founded on restraint, the rule of law, and good faith. They were magnanimous out of strength, not weakness."
Mitt Romney would disagree. "By framing this as a “war,” we have walked right into the trap that terrorists have set—that we are engaged in some kind of clash of civilizations and a war against Islam."
When he'd use force: "As president, I will only use offensive force after all other options including diplomacy have been exhausted, and after we have made efforts to bring as many countries as possible to our side. However, there are times when force is justified: to protect our vital national interests…to respond to acts of aggression by other nations and non-state actors…to protect treaty allies and alliance commitments…to prevent terrorists from acquiring nuclear weapons…and to prevent or stop genocide."
Shot at fellow Dems: "The problem of our force structure is not best dealt with by a numbers game. It is tempting for politicians to try and “out-bid” each other on the number of troops they would add. Some politicians have fallen right in line behind President Bush’s recent proposal to add 92,000 troops between now and 2012, with little rationale given for exactly why we need this many troops—particularly with a likely withdrawal from Iraq"
Innovative idea: "I will create a National Security Budget that will include all security activities by the Pentagon and the Department of Energy, and our homeland security, intelligence, and foreign affairs agencies. This would allow more oversight and would also allow us to more carefully tailor our expenditures to our missions. Today, literally dozens of agencies have overlapping responsibilities, missions, tasks and programs. We don’t link these efforts together nearly enough. We have nuclear proliferation programs in the Defense, State, and the Energy departments. We also have more than fifteen different security assistance programs, running out of both the State Department and the Defense Department."
Elizabeth mentions: 1
Posted 05.23.07 03:13 PM | Comments (0)
On Hillary, The Memo, And Iowa
Some thoughts, after a deep breath:
1. "Skipping Iowa:" It's not an absurd strategy. HRC is strong in NH and SC; her support seems to be deep enough in those two states. John Edwards has lived in Iowa since the last campaign. (Yes, that's a trademarked sentence by now, but it's true). Hard to see Iowans deserting him en masse. The war is so key.
2 But it's not good strategy. The verb "skip" is especially egregious. You never skip states, even when you're skipping states. Just bad form to say it. The point of memo, which we haven't seen and which the Clinton team would not make available, was to suggest that Clinton not spend as much time or money in Iowa as in the other early states.
3. The question of who leaked this to the AP is important and not small. Memos like this are equivalent to top-secret military planning orders. The distribution lists are very, very small, and memos like this never fall into the hands of reporters by accident.
4. Did someone close to Clinton leak the memo in order to embarass Mike Henry? To embarass the campaign? To force the campaign to participate in Iowa? Did a donor get a hold of it and leak it to the AP?
5. This is a one-week story at most. Votes permitting, HRC is headed to Iowa this weekend. She'll probably have a joke ready about the memo. (She will in Iowa for the next three weekends, in fact.) And then it will be forgotten by everyone except for us national campaign reporters who love to speculate about the inner workings of the Clinton Kremlin.
Posted 05.23.07 03:12 PM | Comments (3)
YouTube Wars: Rudy Allies Strike Back Against Hauer
Jerry Hauer, the former director of the Mayor’s Office of Emergency Management, in NYC, has been a vocal critic of ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani as of late. For example, Mr. Hauer, speaking to the New York Times recently, said it was "not" true that he recommended building an emergency bunker near the World Trade Center site before 2001.
One of Mr. Hauer’s first tasks was to find a home for an emergency command center to replace the inadequate facilities at police headquarters. Mr. Hauer suggested an office complex in downtown Brooklyn as a “good alternative” in a memorandum.But Mr. Hauer said the mayor insisted instead on a site within walking distance of City Hall. Given that concern and others, Mr. Hauer said he decided that offices on the 23rd floor of 7 World Trade Center, next to the twin towers and just a few blocks from City Hall, seemed the best choice.
The site was immediately controversial because it was part of the trade center, which had already been the location of a truck bomb attack in 1993. City officials, though, including Mr. Hauer, have long defended their decision, even after the command center had to be evacuated during the 2001 terror attack.
Last week, in an interview with Fox News, Mr. Giuliani again faced questions about the site. He put responsibility for selecting it on Mr. Hauer.
“Jerry Hauer recommended that as the prime site and the site that would make the most sense,” Mr. Giuliani said. “It was largely on his recommendation that that site was selected.”
Mr. Hauer took immediate exception to that account in interviews. “That’s Rudy’s own reality that he lives in,” he said. “It is not, in fact, the truth.”
Now, courtesy of a Giuliani supporter, hear Hauer tell WCBS’ Andrew Kirtzman on 5/9/04 that he "absolutely" favored constructing the OEM site at the World Trade Center site.
Kirtzman: “Did you personally favor putting OEM (Office of Emergency Management) where it was situated?
Hauer: “Absolutely.”
And when later pressed about the possible Brooklyn location for OEM, Hauer replied “Hindsight is 20/20, Andrew.”
Posted 05.23.07 03:00 PM | Comments (0)
An Internal Clinton Memo Urges Candidate To Bypass Iowa
As the AP notes, given that the memo leaked, it's not going to happen.
But the real question: how in the heck did an internal Clinton memo leak?
Posted 05.23.07 02:58 PM | Comments (0)
McCain Is A Lone Wolf On Immigration
Is it us or is John McCain basically the only major national figure aggressively touting the Senate immigration compromise? Yes, the White House is sending paper to critics at the Corner, but the efforts seem a bit half-butted. Maybe they're just fatigued. In the coming days, McCain will hold conference calls with reporters in all the early primary states, Florida and California, with the twin goals of defending the compromise and branding himself as the bipartisan leader who helped to broker it.
Meanwhile, we received this urgent message from the folks at The Shot in South Carolina.
York County GOP Chairman Glenn McCall yesterday sent out a “call to action” to put pressure on Senator Graham to back down from the recently proposed Senate immigration deal. This comes on the heals of RNC Chairman Senator Mel Martinez, who was a key player in shaping the new immigration deal, calling on Republicans at the national level to get in line behind the deal.This is obviously a major issue with the base and it is becoming increasingly hard for GOP leaders to avoid taking a side. Thus far State GOP Chairman Katon Dawson has been eerily quiet on the issue. Having had the National GOP Chair weigh in as well as a major County GOP Chair, one has to wonder how Chairman Dawson has been able to sneak under the radar on the issue. Especially given his recent interest in using his roll as Chairman to take policy positions on School Choice and Workers Comp legislation. Perhaps a call to the SCGOP to ask where Dawson stands on the immigration bill would be in order,
By the way: if you're wondering precisely what Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani would actually do with the 11-12m illegal immigrants already here, well, you'll have to wait a while. No specific proposals are forthcoming, we are told.
Posted 05.23.07 02:45 PM | Comments (1)
Nativism, Thy Name Is....
In the deeper tissues of the immigration debate, there are several trigger points that drive action but aren't above skin.
To make things easier, let's divide the two sides into "pro-comps" and "anti-comps" -- with comps being a stand in for supporters of a comprehensive measure that would provide some pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
# Pro-comp Republicans believe that anti-comp Republicans are catering to a nativist, even racist element among Republican base voters. Pro-comp Republicans can't say this out loud because they don't want to be seen as bashing their own party's base.
# Anti-comp Republicans believe that the Senate immigration bill is Karl Rove's gift to the Democrats, pure and simple, and would essentially award the Democratic Party millions of new votes in critical states like Ohio and Florida.
# Many anti-comp Republicans are faking their opposition to the issue and have told their corporate fundraisers and lobbyist patrons that they privately hope a bill will pass. These anti-comp Republicans have to pretend to be in the anti-amnesty camp because they'd suffer politically because of it.
# Another reason why pseudo-anti-comp Republicans are in the hardliners camp is that the threat of a breakaway immigration faction is real and worry that any populist third party with teeth would crush the party's tiny hopes of regaining the House majority in 2008.
# Pro-comp Republicans know that they won't gain House or Senate votes; the votes they have now are the votes they need to keep. They are worried about the recess.
Posted 05.23.07 01:57 PM | Comments (1)
Gingrich Will Attend The Ames Straw Poll
The Iowa Republican caucuses are really two separate events: the first is a glorified spectacle of an early August straw poll in Ames, Iowa. The second is the night of the precinct caucuses, tenatively scheduled for the middle of January.
Newt Gingrich has decided to attend the Ames straw poll. Not -- mind you -- as a candidate. He's going to set up an Americans Solutions tent for those Republicans who want some asparagus.
Gingrich doesn't want to compete in the straw poll; he just wants to be a presence. So -- will he be on the ballot? Unclear. That's up to the IA GOP, and they haven't figured it out yet.
Rudy Giuliani hasn't said whether he'll attend the straw poll; we think Fred Thompson will, but we don't know yet, and we suspect he doesn't know yet. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 05.23.07 01:07 PM | Comments (3)
Quote Of The Day
From today's Hotline:
"Remember, this is a state that started the Civil War."
-- SC GOP Chair Katon Dawson, on not allowing FL to leapfrog SC's primary, Washington Times, 5/23
Posted 05.23.07 12:39 PM | Comments (2)
More On Boehner And The Immigration Bill
Rep. Boehner's spokesman, Kevin Smith, e-mails:
“Mr. Boehner’s comment was nothing but an off-the-cuff wisecrack made jokingly during a private gathering. While he has serious concerns about the Senate bill, it’s unfortunate that this comment in particular found its way into print.”
Posted 05.23.07 11:50 AM | Comments (1)
An Internal Romney Memo Tries To Lower Expectations
Call it the third law of political dynamics: every time a candidate rises in the polls, there is an equal and opposite attempt by the candidate's strategist to tamp down expectations.
Exhibit A is a new memo from chief Mitt Romney strategist Alex Gage to key supporters of the former Mass. governor.
Mr. Gage writes that Romney "is building real momentum leading in to the summer months and the Iowa straw poll. " But "Here’s what Gov. Romney’s momentum does and doesn’t mean for the campaign in the coming months. We cannot rest on our laurels—this campaign is a marathon, not a sprint."
So while Romney is "leading or tied" in the early states, there is "a long road ahead of us, and it will be bumpy."
Also -- those pesky national polls showing Romney well behind Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are "lagging indicators." [editor's comment: true.]
Writes Gage:
"Our achievement has been in introducing Gov. Romney to these voters—most still know only a few details about him and are by no means firmly-committed supporters. The same is true of McCain and Giuliani supporters at this stage at well. Watch for other campaigns to attempt to raise expectations for us in the coming days in an attempt to lower their own. Despite non-stop media coverage, even voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are just starting to pay attention and gather information about the candidates. The race is extremely fluid and unstructured, as evidenced by the 87% of voters in the Des Moines Register poll who said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate:.
You can read the full, unvarnished memo after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]
Gov. Romney has experienced a recent spike in publicity after strong performances in the first two GOP presidential debates and appearances on the cover of Time magazine and 60 Minutes. Combined with the success of Sign Up America! and the continued hard work of our grassroots team, Gov. Romney is building real momentum leading in to the summer months and the Iowa straw poll.
Here’s what Gov. Romney’s momentum does and doesn’t mean for the campaign in the coming months. We cannot rest on our laurels—this campaign is a marathon, not a sprint.
GOV. ROMNEY IS LEADING OR TIED FOR THE LEAD IN KEY EARLY STATES
New survey results in Iowa and New Hampshire show that Gov. Romney has continued to make steady upward progress and is now leading the field or statistically tied for the lead in key early states.
Polls by the Des Moines Register in Iowa (5/12 to 5/16) and Zogby International in New Hampshire (5/15 to 5/16) show Gov. Romney leading the field by 12 points and 16 points, respectively. The Register poll even shows Gov. Romney expanding his lead to 18 points among likely Iowa straw poll attendees. Both of these polls have their flaws, but by they are by and large accurate gauges of Gov. Romney’s strong support in those states today.
As shown in the table below, Gov. Romney’s support has been steadily increasing in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida over the past few months. The campaign has been concentrating its effort building strong organizations in these states and this is where we expected to see the greatest gains.
Gov. Romney’s Support, Monthly Avg. Of All Public Polls
Mar. Avg. Apr. Avg. May Avg. Apr./May Change
Iowa 11.5% 14.0% 21.7% +7.7
New Hampshire 18.7% 24.5% 35.0% +10.5
South Carolina N/A 10.8% 9.0% -1.8
Florida 7.3% 7.0% 10.0% +3.0
Michigan 16.7% 10.0% 24.0% +14.0
Keep in mind that at this stage in the campaign, national polls are lagging indicators that are a poor judge of a candidate’s strength. In May 2003, Joe Lieberman was leading the Democratic field and John Kerry was in third place nationwide; Bill Clinton was at less than 2% nationwide in May 1991. National polls oftentimes do not catch up with state-by-state polling until after the first early primaries when voters start to tune in—John Kerry did not poll higher than 13% in nationwide Gallup poll until after he won Iowa and New Hampshire.
BUT THE ROAD AHEAD OF US IS LONG—AND IT WILL BE BUMPY
But while we should feel good about coming so far so quickly, we should also not lose sight of the fact that our early lead in Iowa and New Hampshire today guarantees nothing.
Our achievement has been in introducing Gov. Romney to these voters—most still know only a few details about him and are by no means firmly-committed supporters. The same is true of McCain and Giuliani supporters at this stage at well. Watch for other campaigns to attempt to raise expectations for us in the coming days in an attempt to lower their own.
Despite non-stop media coverage, even voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are just starting to pay attention and gather information about the candidates. The race is extremely fluid and unstructured, as evidenced by the 87% of voters in the Des Moines Register poll who said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate.
Gov. Romney’s lead today is a testament to our successful advertising and grassroots strategy, but other campaigns will undoubtedly redouble their own efforts to catch up. The other major candidates have not yet run ads, and we should expect them to receive a temporary bounce in the polls when they go up on the air.
As in any campaign, we will be prepared for inevitable ups and downs. Some polls will show Gov. Romney in the lead; others will not. But ultimately, Gov. Romney’s message, field organization, and momentum continue to make him well-positioned to win the Republican nomination.
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Posted 05.23.07 11:32 AM | Comments (7)
HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates
Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7
New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com
New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ
California -- The Roundup
Missouri -- JohnCombest.com
Illinois -- Capitol Fax
Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog
Florida -- SayfieReview.com
Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor
Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com
Wisconsin -- WisPolitics
Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report
Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest
Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com
Arizona -- AZ Political News
Posted 05.23.07 11:00 AM | Comments (0)
Edwards Is Going To YearlyKos Convention In Chicago
Writes Elizabeth Edwards on DailyKos:
John is first to have his bags packed for Chicago and YearlyKos. The decision was easy: the opportunity to talk, to listen, to question and to learn from the people who make online the center of real political dialogue that YearlyKos offers is important. Unparalleled, really. And so John will be there, there with you.
Posted 05.23.07 10:00 AM | Comments (3)
Romney's "Tough" New Ad
Here's the latest television ad run by Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The script says Romney's "done the toughest things" in the "toughest place."
Let's back up a bit. Actually, move forward again -- this is a well-crafted, effective ad.
Now, backing up -- we had several thoughts simultaneously.
1. Mitt Romney worked with liberal Ted Kennedy on the state's innovative universal health care plan. (There is a still image of Kennedy -- graaaarwl -- in the ad).
2. There are plenty of Paul Tsongas Democrats in Massachusetts who think their former governor is, um, bashing
them in a television ad for political gain. Massachusetts residents: if you want to complain in person, the Romney
campaign headquarters is located in the North End.
3. Romney's opponents will bring up the argument that Romney raised fees and therefore he raised taxes. Are fees taxes? If so...
4. Romney cut the rate of spending but overall spending seems to have increased.
5. Enforcing immigration laws brings up the Guatemalan immigrant story....
Posted 05.23.07 09:42 AM | Comments (4)
Boehner: Immigration Bill Is "Piece Of Shit"
House Minority Leader John Boehner, speaking to a private gathering of Republican activists last night, called the Senate's immigration compromise bill a "piece of shit" but said that he had promised President Bush earlier in the day that he would let his teeth be a barrier to such thoughts in public.
Boehner spoke last night at a small reception for the Republican Rapid Responders on Capitol Hill.
"I promised the President today that I wouldn't say anything bad about ... this piece of shit bill," he said, according to two attendees.
Earlier in the day, Boehner released a statement saying that "The Senate agreement appears to recognize that additional border security measures and more effective immigration law enforcement must come before any other issues are addressed, but I have significant concerns about parts of the Senate proposal -- particularly provisions that would reward illegal immigrants who have consistently broken our laws."
A senior Republican official said yesterday that while the chances of the bill, which opens pathways to citizenship for most of the U.S.'s 12 million illegal immigrants, are "50/50" in the House and that the White House would spend its time lobbying Democrats, rather than Republicans, to achieve a majority.
Yesterday, the Senate beat back an amendment by Sen. Byron Dorgan that would have scrapped the bill's new guest worker program. The defeat of that effort was interpreted as a sign that a solid majority of Senators are prepared to support the bill's main tenets, for now.
What happens when they hear from constituents over Memorial Day is unknown and unknowable.
A Boehner spokesman was not able to comment.
Boehner's tendency towards candor occasionally irks his staff, a fact that Boehner brought up with last night's audience. In 2006, Boehner called an idea put forth by then. Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist to provide Americans with a $100 rebate on gasoline "stupid." [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted 05.23.07 08:47 AM | Comments (544)
Hotline After Dark -- No Bloom On This Campaign
The Iraq funding compromise led most of the news last night:
NBC's B. Williams: "To many people it looks like the Democrats might have rolled over and the president might have gotten what he wanted" ("Nightly News," 5/22).
FNC's Hume: "Congressional Republican leaders said it was a win. And Democrats claim they have made their point. But no matter how the thing is spun, it appears House and Senate negotiators have agreed on language for a bill funding the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan that President Bush will accept" ("Special Report," 5/22).
MSNBC's Shuster: "After weeks of refusing to back down to the White House, today, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid did just that" ("Hardball," 5/22).
STILL NO BLOOM ON THIS CAMPAIGN
Mike Bloomberg was in the "Situation Room" last night:
On Hagel saying, "It's a great country to think about a New York boy and a Nebraska boy to be teamed up leading this nation," Bloomberg: "Well, maybe he was talking about somebody else from New York. Chuck Hagel's a good guy. He's very smart. He's independent. He says what he thinks. And I'm proud to have him as a friend."
CNN's Blitzer: "I think he was referring to you, though."
Bloomberg: "We don't know. You'll have to go ask Chuck. He's doing the right thing. He's out there trying to give the public more choice. And I think that is an interest. I'm not a candidate for president, and I don't know whether Chuck Hagel is, but the more candidates, the better the public will be served" (CNN, 5/22).
SAME OLD AL
Al Gore was on "LKL" last night:
On the Dems sending Bush a war-spending bill without a timetable for withdrawal: "The tools that are available to the legislative branch of government are not always very precise. They are often blunt instruments. And they passed a measure that would have required a timetable. The president vetoed it. They were not able to override the veto. So their options have been sharply limited. Again, I have not seen the details of what they have done but I have a lot of confidence in Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and rest of the leadership in the House and Senate now."
On whether he will enter WH '08: "You know my answer, that's the problem. Because I don't want to sound repetitive. I am not thinking about being a candidate. I have no plans to be a candidate. But, yes, it's true, I have not made a so-called Sherman statement and ruled it out for all time. I see no reason or necessity to do that. But that's not an effort to be coy or to prop the door open or to invite such speculation. Look, I don't know why it's ordained that as soon as one presidential campaign is over with, the next one begins right away. I'm one of those who doesn't like to see the Christmas goods put into storage right after Halloween."
On whether he will endorse a candidate: "I don't know" (CNN, 5/22).[EMILY GOODIN]
Posted 05.23.07 08:36 AM | Comments (0)
May 22, 2007
Fletcher v. Beshear
As of 9:46 ET, it looks like Dem Steve Beshear avoided a run-off. And Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) cruised to victory.
DEM: Beshear & Mongiardo -- 138,200 -- 41.2%
GOP: Fletcher & Rudolph -- 98,035 -- 50.9%
Dem turnout greatly exceeded GOP turnout.
Posted 05.22.07 09:45 PM | Comments (1)
Waiting For Kentucky: Looks Like Fletcher/Beshear
More than 65% of the precincts have reported so far in Kentucky, home to the first of the three gubernatorial contests in this off year.
Ex-Rep Anne Northup had posted an early lead, thanks to the 66% of the vote she earned in her old Louisville district. But as the precincts outside Jefferson County started coming in, Gov. Ernie Fletcher eliminated the gap and is now building what appears to be an insurmountable lead. Northup was banking on a strong showing in the "Old Fifth" to supplement her showing in Jefferson County, but so far Fletcher has carried wide majority of the other counties. Businessman Billy Harper is running a distant third.
The only mild surprise of the night is on the Democratic side, where former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear is running well ahead of the 6-candidate field with 44% of the vote. That's important, since any total higher than 40% will eliminate the need for a two-candidate runoff election five weeks from today. Were he to do so, Beshear would be spared a costly fight with self-funded businessman Bruce Lunsford, allowing him to focus on a general election matchup with the governor. Whether he stays above 40% depends now on the late-counting parts of Western Kentucky.
And here are some good links to follow the returns:
Secretary of State:
Lexington Herald-Leader blog:
Louisville Courier-Journal blog:
Dem-leaning BluegrassReport.org:
Posted 05.22.07 08:46 PM | Comments (0)
Mitt Romney Might Want To Have A Heart-to-Heart With Ron Kessler
Newsmax.com's Washington correspondent, Ron Kessler apparently cannot get over how yummy Ann Romney is:
When she is not flashing her truly unbelievable smile, she may lower her eyes demurely. But Ann Romney is not demure — she may be modest, but she isn't meek. She is unpreten