May 10, 2007
Is Obama Readying TV Ad Blitz?
Is Sen. Barack Obama thinking about a major television ad blitz?
Democratic media buyers say that Obama’s media team asked television stations in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada about available ad time and rates.
Robert Gibbs, an Obama spokesman, said the inquiries were "routine" exercises and should not be interpreted as signaling that an actual buy is imminent. He said the media team asked about rates through the end of the year.
Obama’s media team is led by strategist David Axelrod and includes veteran Dem ad-crafter Jim Margolis. Asking about buying time does not mean that time will be bought, but campaigns are generally aware that once they talk to TV stations about purchasing time, their intentions become public.
Sen. Hillary Clinton commands handsome leads in all national polls and leads in three out of the four early primary states. The exception is Iowa, where ex-Sen, John Edwards consistently outpolls the Democratic field. Obama’s team was cheered by a recent Wall Street Journal poll question which suggested that of those Democrats paying close attention to the primary horse race, Obama had the most support.
Judging by the large crowds Obama attracts in locales as varied as Atlanta and Oakland, the excitement that greeted February entrance into the race has not abated. National and private polling shows that Obama seems to have a foothold among Democratic professionals, students, and elite activists, while Clinton does better among blue collar voters, African Americans, and women. In most Democratic primaries, Clinton’s group is larger than Obama’s group.
So far, two Democrats – Ex-Sen. John Edwards and NM Gov. Bill Richardson, and two Republicans – ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Tom Tancredo – have advertised on television and radio this cycle. [MARC AMBINDER]
Posted at 09:48 AM
Comments
Obama has not managed to increase his support in public opinion polls since his official announcement in February. Meanwhile, Hillary has held a consistent lead and surged after her strong performance in the debate. So, despite months of adoring media attention that you couldn’t put a price on, Obama has not gained traction. This fact does not bode well for his candidacy.
csh | 05.10.07 10:11 AM
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Thats false. Obama has gained in polls, and has increased his gain weekly in Rasmussen, which now shows him defeating Clinton. He has consistently held second, and is gaining on African American voters. With crowds of 20,000 in Austin, 10,000 in Atlanta and Iowa - Hillary is scared and ought to be.
Hal | 05.10.07 01:46 PM
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I know one poll Obama beats Clinton that is in liability, which is what it will come down to. These polls a snap shot of the moment. That is it. Clinton can't erase the people who just don't like her. She can know more than EVERYTHING that all 43 Presidents before did, it still won't change the fact that people don't like her.
On the other hand, Senator Obama is the one people love.
I have NEVER been polled about Presidential Politics. I use a cell phone most of the time.
In the words of David Letterman, "I would vote for that suit." Don't underestimate the hate for the Clinton vs the freshness and "turn the page" ground swell for the junior Senator from Lincoln Country who reminds the American people of a combination of President John Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy, Dr. Martin Luther King and President Ronald Reagan.
Now even the Governor of California is singing his praises.
Lorraine | 05.10.07 02:15 PM
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Public polls this early don't mean much at all. What is important is Obama's public support, which is massive.
Paul Kekai Manansala | 05.10.07 02:44 PM
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Now even the Governor of California is singing his praises.
Is that a good thing?
Anthony` | 05.10.07 02:45 PM
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He's got soros money, Tides foundation support, be afraid, be very afraid.
fly | 05.10.07 04:16 PM
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We must remember the Democratic primary in 2004 when Dean was at the top of many polls. What happened was Kerry was judged to have a better chance of winning the gerneral election and voters reflected this. This time, Hillary Clinton is enjoying a lead in the polls. At the same time, she is much weaker against the leading GOP candidates than Barack Obama. Also, Obama has to recognize that young voters are backbone of his support. They do not turn out as elections as much as older vorters.
glen P | 05.10.07 06:57 PM
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Obama will surge past Hillary because everyone has known Hillary for a decade and a half and has already decided how they feel about her. She has no new message and can win no new converts to her side.
Obama is still unknown by a large # of people. (I know, because I get people at my campaign table on weekends who say "Who's that?" Is there anybody in the *world* who would ask who Hillary Clinton is?) He can win over a large number of people to his side. As he becomes more well known his numbers will go up. It's only a matter of time. He's where the energy and excitement is.
Hillary's vaporware lead will evaporate for good once second quarter fundraising numbers are in and she has no money to transfer from her Senate campaign. You can only pull that trick once. (Unlike John Kerry, who did the cash flow trick late enough to make it work.) Obama has real grassroots support and that will be even more obvious next time.
If for some reason the Dems are too stupid to give him the nomination he will definitely be in the VP spot (aka Pres. in 2016). The Dems would be completely stupid to not do that. Sadly, if he doesn't get the nomination, a lot of energy will go out of the Dem race, as folks like me stop giving our time and energy and return to our normal lives.
The scariest thing would be Hillary as the candidate, because she is the one person the Republicans can rally around. They *will* turn out large numbers if she's the candidate. By contrast, many Republicans like Obama and will cross over to vote for him. How many Republicans do you think will cross over for Hillary?
Keith L | 05.11.07 02:47 PM
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