July 12, 2007
New Trends in the Old Dominion?
In '04, John Kerry made a short-lived push for VA's 13 electoral votes, but it wasn’t a sincere effort. “We were the Rodney Dangerfield of states,” remembers Susan Swecker, who ran Kerry’s campaign there. This time around, strategists from both parties expect Dems to challenge more aggressively. The question is, will it be a Tier 1 swing-state?
Ed Gillespie, who chaired the VA GOP until last month when he took a job as WH counselor, expects the Dems to target the Old Dominion aggressively, but he shrugs of the notion that it will be competitive. “Democrats have gathered strength in Virginia, and they will attempt to kick down the firewall,” he said in an interview while he was still chair. “But it will not be in the Top 20 of swing states.”
Gillespie points to the conservative DNA of the Old Dominion, the fact that the RPV has swelled it budget with big-name fundraisers, including one last night with Newt Gingrich, and has decentralized its message machine. To Gillespie and VA GOPers, yes, it will be closer than Pres. Bush’s 54-46% win in ’04, but Dems don’t stand a chance.
Of course Dems are more bullish about their prospects. Swecker argues that Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb ran three very different campaigns. Warner cut his rural loses, Kaine dominated suburbs, and Webb ran up margins in Dem precincts. Another top Dem strategist familiar with VA contends that demographics are rapidly changing in the Dems’ favor.
A new Washington Post poll suggests that the Dems might be right about those demographics. The poll found that independent voters, who represent the lion’s share of new voters in outer suburbs and exurbs in Northern VA and Hampton Roads, are tilting heavily to the Dems. The poll found that indies favor a Dem WH ’08 candidate 65-26%. And 53% of indies had a favorable view of nat’l Dems while only 34% view the nat’l GOP favorably.
But Rep. Tom Davis (R), who is chomping at the bit for Sen. John Warner’s (R) seat, argues that the right GOP candidate can win back those indies. “I think a Rudy Giuliani could carry Fairfax County,” he argues. These voters are relatively disengaged from politics, and candidates who focus on issues such as transportation and education can win. Davis adds, “If you focus on gay rights, abortion, etc… you’re not going to do well.”
Rep. Frank Wolf (R), who represents Loudoun County and areas further west, ran ads in '06 that asked of his opponent, “She doesn’t even have a transportation plan -- where does she live?” It was a question that voters might ask themselves on I-66, and an interesting contrast to the type of ads Jerry Kilgore had run in ‘05. In one Kilgore spot, a man scoffs, “Tim Kaine says that Adolf Hitler doesn't qualify for the death penalty.” Needless to say, Kilgore dropped 18 points off Bush’s Loudoun County performance.
So on the question of whether VA will be a Tier 1 swing state in ’08, it may very well come down to the candidates. GOPers are catching up to Dems on the money front; Dems have rebuilt a party infrastructure. Indies are trending Dem, but are still up for grabs.
This all suggests VA will indeed be a target state. It will be a Tier I swing state if indies stay disgusted with the GOP and if Mark Warner runs for Senate. If the GOP can overcome some internal divisions that may arise with the Senate campaign, and if they have a WH candidate that doesn’t scare away suburban GOPers, they’ll be fine.
Posted at 04:02 PM
Comments
If Obama is on the ticket, the Dems pick up Virginia.
Mimi Schaeffer | 07.13.07 07:07 PM
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