September 16, 2007
Yes, Virginia, Republicans Will Decide Oct. 13th
The Virginia Republican Central Committee will decide on October 13 whether its party's '08 SEN nomination will be decided via primary or convention next year, resolving what appears to be looming match-up between ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) and Rep. Tom Davis (R-11).
One GOP consultant with experience in VA races (not associated with either camp) claims that the odds of a primary vs. a convention are about 50/50 right now, while conceding that tradition indicates the the committte would normally choose a convention.
Still, he believes that even some conservative GOP activists remain spooked by George Allen's '06 loss and have begun to acknowledge there may be some benefit in allowing candidates to hone their messages to larger audiences during a primary. He says that central cmte conservatives may agree more with Gilmore than Davis on the issues, however some of them also feel that Gilmore left the state and the VA GOP in lurch when he departed from the governor's office in '01. GOPers are eager to use Mark Warner's record on taxes against him, but some fear that nominating Gilmore would make it a referendum on Gilmore's own record on budget and tax matters. The consultant: "The GOP 'money people' still blame Gilmore for the VA GOP's downfall. After the Allen debacle, people are more willing to look for win than make a statement."
But a knowledgeable VA GOPer who backs Gilmore strongly disagrees and says: "It's amazing how many people don't get it. It will be a convention. This group of Republicans has consistently favored conventions. Mark Warner will have a stunning financial advantage. Why would you squander $3 million dollars by having a primary? There's not a scintilla of doubt that this will be a convention." He says that the VA GOP leadership would naturally want the control over the process that a convention allows, since there would be no way to prevent crossover voting in a primary. He also notes that it's not just name ID, but also intra-party negativity that gets spread to wider audiences during primaries, and that parties tend to leave conventions more united than they do primaries. This GOPer noted that convention votes are weighed based on the extent each CD has supported GOP WH and GOV candidates in the past, which is to Davis' disadvantage, and that VA GOPers will be holding an '08 convo anyway to determine delegates to the nat'l convo.
This GOPer also defends against those who say Gilmore did not leave VA in a sound financial state: "Gilmore left Mark Warner a balanced budget, as is required by law, a recession hit, and Warner and state Senate Republicans added millions in more spending, who then said 'wow, we have a deficit.' It only became a deficit when they added in extra spending. ... Gilmore has carried NOVA twice against so called charismatic, wealthy candidates that everybody said he couldn't beat. The reason is that he talked to working people, who are trying to pay for college, trying to meet their mortgages. In conservative areas of the state, on gun issues, Mark Warner will eat Davis for breakfast."
One thing both GOPers agreed upon is that there may be pro-Davis cmte members who will vote to have a convo for reasons unrelated to their preference on whom the party should nominate. Although this may seem counter-intuative (since Gilmore is seen as a stronger convention candidate), the thinking is that a convention will prevent candidates from wasting money on primary campaigns and having negative primary ads shown to the general public. [QUINN MCCORD]
Posted at 10:28 PM
Comments
Articles like this one prove just how greedy, ignorant, and narrow-minded Virginians have become...
NOVAns are essentially biting the hands that have fed them for the past 20 years, cf. Allen's unmatchable record on labor and commerce...
I'm ashamed of the Commonwealth, particularly NOVAns, who helped to elect an ill-tempered, hotheaded SOB like Webb, Wilder the Swindler, Tiny Tim (Kaine) - one of M. Warner's bed buddies, and bottom-feeder McEachin...
Virginia, you've only yourself to blame for the 500,000,000 budget deficit (e.g. Kaine's corrosive tax scheme, HB 3202, which singles NOVA out as the primary recipient of revenue from these ridiculous 'civil remedial fees' and interstate commerce/out-of-state trash, waste management).
How ungrateful the Commonwealth has proven itself. E.g., I recently learned that health care providers of Virginia's Blue Cross Blue Shield network have garnered innumerable profits from their carrier on allegations of malpractice...
NOVAns, y'all are cheats, bottom-feeders!!!
NA | 09.18.07 06:27 AM
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Pardon me. The Commonwealth's current projected deficit for the period of time between 2008 and 2010 is $1.2 billion -->
Way to G-E-A-U-X, Virginia!
NA | 09.18.07 06:35 AM
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