November 30, 2007
Ron Paul, Wild Card
Jennifer Skalka (Email this author)
© National Journal Group, Inc.
COLEBROOK, N.H. -- When Ron Paul walked into the living room of this large house with an American flag out front and the crackle of a warm fire inside, Gloria Burchett leaped from the couch and extended her hand. The West Stuartstown resident, a traveling nurse and the mother of four, explained that she had driven almost five hours from her latest job to tell the Republican presidential candidate that he has her support.
"It's just such an honor to meet you," said Burchett, an undeclared voter in this first-in-the-nation-primary state.
Over wine and cheese, Burchett's husband explained why they are eyeing Paul. "It's his principles," said Timothy Burchett, an undeclared voter with Democratic leanings. "He does not sway in the wind."
The Texas congressman is depending on folks like the Burchetts to help him upend the GOP contest in New Hampshire. This primary cycle, a record 45 percent of registered New Hampshire voters are undeclared, according to Secretary of State Bill Gardner. There are more undeclared voters this year than there are registered Democrats or Republicans, and they can vote in either party's primary.
Paul is the indisputable no-name candidate on the crowded Republican side, but his anti-war, pro-gun, anti-abortion message has helped him to gain traction in the Granite State, where voters have historically gravitated to the renegade, the long shot.
Think Pat Buchanan in 1996. Or John McCain in 2000.
Read the rest of my National Journal my piece ... After the jump.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
"My message is very simple: more freedom, less government," Paul said during the Colebrook gathering.
Interestingly, some of Paul's backers see him vying with Democrat Barack Obama for the support of those precious undeclared voters. Two more-unlikely foils, of course, couldn't possibly exist. Obama, the 46-year-old senator from Illinois, offers a personal story that reflects the country's modern-day melting-pot culture. Paul, 72, a gynecologist and great-grandfather, is lithe, with gray hair and a bulbous nose. He favors black orthopedic shoes. He fidgets when he talks. Gauzy oratory isn't his style.
One touts the "Audacity of Hope"; the other, "Hope for America." Any comparison is fantasy, perhaps, but there's some sense to their shared appeal.
"People want consistency," said John Babiarz, a libertarian who is backing Paul's bid.
Paul scored 8 percent in a recent CNN/WMUR poll in New Hampshire; he was at 4 percent two months ago. The candidate, who has three television ads in circulation in the state, might not have Mitt Romney's cash or cachet, but with his record one-day haul of $4.2 million in contributions, his is no campaign of unpaid college students sleeping on supporters' sofa beds.
"Ron Paul is the Buchanan of this decade," said state Rep. Fran Wendelboe, a New Hampton Republican. "I think that he could be a real sleeper in New Hampshire. He's bringing in people who haven't been involved before."
Wendelboe and other New Hampshire voters like her aren't suggesting that Paul is bound for victory, but they do think that he has the capacity to change the contest's dynamics.
McCain is counting on a strong finish in New Hampshire to stay in the race; he can't afford to be bumped out of second -- or third -- by Paul. The CNN/WMUR survey showed McCain running second, behind Romney but leading former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said he sees Paul hurting Giuliani, who draws from a similar voter pool. Smith said that Paul's supporters tend to be male, blue-collar, hunters, and constitutionalists, the kind of people who might like an opinionated former big-city mayor.
There is one major hurdle for Paul in the latest CNN/WMUR polling -- 61 percent of Republicans surveyed said they would not back Paul under any circumstances.
Though Smith expects the Democratic primary to attract more undeclared voters, their leanings are still a mystery. There are a whopping 369,691 of them, Gardner said, while registered Republicans number 244,320 and registered Democrats 212,421.
New Hampshire Republicans can also be an unpredictable lot, more libertarian than Christian conservative. But the state's Live Free or Die motto could, in fact, be a fitting Paul anthem. The Constitution is his bible. If it's not in there, he is not interested in legislating it.
That sentiment is precisely what drew John Simpson, a 63-year-old retired state worker and registered Republican, to the Littleton Diner -- with his five children and nine towheaded grandchildren -- to tell Paul that he has their votes.
"Winning isn't what we need," Simpson said. "I think what we need is genuine, consistent principle."
Posted at 09:37 AM
Comments
It seems the vast majority of politicians have never heard of the Constitution or that this nation is a Republic and not some lynch mob lead "democracy". Thank God for Ron Paul! It is time we restore the Republic, and return to the Constitution.
M/Sgt David J. Lindtedt, Sr, US Army (retired) | 11.30.07 10:17 AM
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I see two camps here. Those that have actually looked into Ron Paul's policies, credibility, and prescience on many matters that have deep impact to the US usually results in the individual getting solidly behind the candidate. Those who hear the CNN conspiracy-undertone version (with the "North American Union", "9/11 truthers", etc) may never see his candidacy as desirable or viable. The breadth of Paul's support is growing at a modest rate, but the depth and passion of that support is just rock solid. People trust this man to do what he says more than they would their own family members. One doesn't often find that in a politician, and that's what makes Paul so entirely unusual in the Presidential race.
Boston MA | 11.30.07 10:49 AM
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"That sentiment is precisely what drew a 63-year-old retired state worker..." How ironic, a retired state worker looking for less government... all the while saying... ""I think what we need is genuine, consistent principle."
Tim | 11.30.07 10:49 AM
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Wow, college kids sleeping on cots? With $10M raised this quarter so far, I think this reporter is out of the loop. There are at last count 9 staffers, plenty of signs and materials and a nice office in Concord. What you meant was, scores of people coming from all over to help....
Also, this reporter somehow missed the upscale supporters and concentrated on the ones she felt fit the stereotype.
What about us wealthy retired sushi-eaters? We vote too. And we're voting for Paul.
NH_GOP | 11.30.07 11:09 AM
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Only a "no name" as far as the major media and GOP powerbrokers are concerned. But his name is marquee quality to those of us who recognize that he is the shining star among the Republican hopefuls. Definitely the "best-kept secret", so to speak, of the elections... so far, that is. This is beginning to change quickly! :)
Darryl Schmitz | 11.30.07 11:11 AM
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I think you are not taking into account the throngs of people like myself who have NEVER been involved in politics before and have sat out on 1-2 past Presidential elections as they were nothing more than a "coin toss." There are far more of us out here than anyone is taking note of, most I meet in fact, via Ron Paul meetings and rallies. We're not on your radar (polls), but rest assured, we are showing up on Election Day!
JeffnDallas | 11.30.07 11:23 AM
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"no-name candidate?"
In just a few days, all you'll have to do is look up and see his name flying across the country!
The first-ever Presidential (canidate) blimp takes flight December the 10th.
Has there EVER been this much grassroots support for ANY canidate BEFORE the primaries? NOPE!!!
And to all who say "I like him, I just don't think he can win;" Don't vote for who you think "can win," vote for who you WANT to win.
Scott | 11.30.07 11:35 AM
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And the winner for political non sequitur in a supporting role is...
Andrew Smith...said that Paul's supporters tend to be male, blue-collar, hunters, and constitutionalists, the kind of people who might like an opinionated former big-city mayor.
Say what?
Greg | 11.30.07 11:42 AM
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Thanks for the nice article on Dr. Paul. His popularity is growing and now being picked-up more by the media. As the primaries draw closer and the leading GOP candidates seem more concerned with destroying each other than touting the principles and records they lack, Ron Paul is looking more like a "Founding father" than a "long shot".
Uniblogger | 11.30.07 12:07 PM
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Ron Paul Rocks !!!
Core Character Counts !!!
I would prefer an honest President for a change.
Brad | 11.30.07 12:18 PM
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Ron Paul is according to John McCain "the most honest man in Washington DC" . That was said before McCain knew he'd be a campaign rival and he'd be looking up (way up) to Ron Paul in fundraising and popularity.
Imagine the support he'd have if the media didn't ignore his postion on issues or worse twist them.
I can't wait to see how they react to 12/16...the biggest fund raiser in history.
November 5th was good, but I think he'll break his own record.
We need to make sure those who haven't heard of Ron Paul or still believe the garbage the media puts out knows why they should vote for him.
GOOGLE Ron Paul for President 2008 - keep telling everybody that!!
Bob C | 11.30.07 12:46 PM
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I totally second what JeffnDallas is saying. I have never been involved in politics in any form before; yet here I am doing everything I can to see to it that Ron Paul and what he stands for are known to as many as possible. There are huge numbers of Ron Paul supporters that fit this profile. These polls that show Paul's ratings low, I believe, only poll previous voters in Republican primaries. If true, I don't place much value in them since so many of Paul's supporters are like myself or have crossed party lines to support Dr. Paul.
WillinDC | 11.30.07 01:07 PM
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Don’t forget folks. When running an insurgency political campaign flying under the big boys in the polls is to your advantage. Then you jump up and snatch it from them at the end. To win (and I mean win, not 2nd) New Hampshire all Ron Paul needs to do is stay on message and get about 20% of Independents convinced that a vote for him is the best way for them to voice their disapproval of George Bush’s Iraq adventure.
Mark Stomberg, California | 11.30.07 01:09 PM
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"Is there no virtue among us? If there be not, we are in a wretched situation. No theoretical checks-no form of government can render us secure. To suppose that any form of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue in the people, is a chimerical idea, if there be sufficient virtue and intelligence
in the community, it will be exercised in the selection of these men. So that we do not depend on their virtue, or put confidence in our rulers, but in the people who are to choose them."
-- James Madison (speech at the Virginia Ratifying Convention,
20 June 1788)
Reference: The True Republican, French, ed. (28-29)
Virtuous citizens are freely campaigning for a virtuous man, Ron Paul.
Clearly the unvirtuous do not want to see, hear, nor speak about the growing citizens' support for Paul.
Ron Paul has become Voldemort to the unvirtuous, they are afraid to even say his name!
kashdog | 11.30.07 01:34 PM
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Just another wealthy retired sushi eater here voting for Ron Paul who is definitely "The candidate of the people". He has all of my family and friends votes. Go Dr. Paul!
Kate | 11.30.07 02:16 PM
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"61 percent of Republicans surveyed said they would not back Paul under any circumstances"
With all the Republicans running against him being look-alike neocon war mongers, Ron Paul has a fair chance of getting a plurality (30% would do it) which is all he needs to win the primary. If the Republicans *do* nominate one of the war mongers, they will go down in flames in the general election.
Ron Paul is certainly not a "no-name" candidate, as much as the Republican establishment and the mainstream media would like him to be. He's been in every Republican debate and is well known among those who don't get their news from the self designated gatekeepers.
Bob W | 11.30.07 02:52 PM
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I think McCain has pretty much bumped himself out of the race with his comments in the FLA debates this week when he tried to compare Ron Paul's Noninterventionalist polices to Hitler, and tried to call them "isolationist".... Clearly McCain is a dunce since he can't understand the difference between the two, and he obviously has his head in the sand when over 70% of the American public wants us out of Iraq.
It was classic when Ron Paul pointed out that he gets more contributions from Military members than any other candidate.
Clearly, Ron Paul's support is much larger than the rigged polls will let on. Ron Paul has won more straw polls, has more internet supporters, and attracts larger crowds than any of the candidates combined. You don't see Guiliani yard signs anywhere, but you sure do see tons of Ron Paul signs EVERYWHERE !
The Ron Paul Freedom Train is ROLLING!
Bill | 11.30.07 03:17 PM
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Please remember it's not enough to support Ron Paul on the internet. Go register as a Republican if your state has a closed primary. I know many of you, myself included, have been registered as something else and you probably don't want to be associated with the current crop of neoconservatives. Nevertheless, we must register republican and vote in closed primaries. It's the only way we can affect change. Pay attention to final dates to change your party on your registration in your home state.
JC Orleans | 11.30.07 03:42 PM
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Well if you want Ron to win today is the day of the most important fund rasier. Ron needs the money now not on the 16th. Please see ron paul graphs dot com to see what is happening today!
Ladmo Phoenix | 11.30.07 03:53 PM
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The answer to 1984 is 1776 !!!!!
The Neocons are scared to death !!!!
God Bless Ron Paul .....
Did I mentiont he first-ever Presidential (canidate) blimp takes flight December the 10th.
Power To The Revolution !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dann Chapman | 11.30.07 06:28 PM
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I don't see how anyone can stand these stupid poiticians anymore. How dumb can the American people be? The whole bubble they weave is a delusion. And to think they lock people away for good for a lot less than these morons do. I don't see any other candidate worth mentioning.
Hal | 11.30.07 08:32 PM
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Get with it or we are going to kick ass. Vote Ron Paul. Canadian express. The world needs his kind. Regards a canuck.
Gordon Elmore | 11.30.07 09:26 PM
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I don't understand how the MSM can be so clueless when it comes to Ron Paul. Why would anybody in their right mind continue to support the same old ReThug pro-war, pro-illegal immigrant, neocon borrow-and-spend, nut cases (and seven of them to boot).
Patrick | 11.30.07 10:27 PM
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My fellow countrymen, is it not the twilight of our setting Liberty? By what measure need you to see the gaggle of dancing puppets being pulled and pranced to and fro? By what measure do you need to see the rush of water into our ship of Freedom? By what measure need be given to see by any fool’s eye, the ease of which continues this marionette show passing as proper republican government? For be it unremarkable that the decision for which candidate will best serve the people, look not through that fool’s eye onto that stage of dancing dolls, and deliver the message of Liberty and Freedom; send the principled messenger, Dr. Paul, to Washington to help restore the example of Liberty we want to be for ourselves,our children, and the rest of the world.
Freedom2Learn | 11.30.07 11:07 PM
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It finally looks like the media dam that is trying to contain all the hype on Ron Paul is beginning to crumble. I see his name coming up a lot more often in the news, usually with some schmuck analyst trying to bash him. Luckily, the American people aren't quite as dumb as politicians thought. And oh yea, I've missed the previous two elections because, as someone said in a comment above, I didn't care to participate in a "coin-toss". Dr.Paul has given hope back to the citizens of the US.
Brian | 12.01.07 02:31 AM
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Yet ANOTHER semi-retired sushi eater supporting Dr.Ron Paul (ten term legislator with a NO tax record..NEVER voted for a tax increase) and a proud
veteran, Honorably Discharged from Ron Paul's branch..The United States Air Force.
61% of Republicans.. I guess that depends on what your definition of Republican is.
For all the bs on the hill about bringing the country 'together' and 'reaching across the aisle' and 'uniting' the Untied States..it sure is laughable to see how all these 'pundits' react when a candidate who just naturally does that by proving he has been a principled, devoted constitutionalist all along.
What did they think was going to bring them all together..Global Warming ?? Free Assault Rifles ?? I myself have wondered..Where IS the common ground ?? It is the message of Freedom, Liberty,
and Prosperity..backed by the U.S. Constitution.
Johnny Y. | 12.01.07 07:54 AM
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This is just another MSM attempt to marginalize Ron Paul. His support is much bigger than their rigged polls show. I'm a female professional in Los Angeles and I'm voting for Ron Paul.
CB in Los Angeles | 12.01.07 08:27 AM
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I find articles like this rather amusing. They almost seem like clever, subtle "hit" pieces but many are probably not written with that intent. They're just articles written by non-supportive journalists who are ignorant of the power of a consistent, principled freedom message. A question mark floated above my head as I read it because it certainly doesn't describe this Paul supporter, or of any Paul supporter I know. By my estimate, we're more philosophically thoughtful than this article portrays, and we're strongly passionate about the AMERICAN virtue of LIBERTY -- and of what qualities of government it takes to create and maintain said virtue. Also, we don't flood the Paul campaign coffers with money because we're interested in simply "affecting the race", whatever that means. We desire victory and believe in the power of the message, and the proven integrity of its current messenger, to deliver it to us!
Brad | 12.01.07 09:45 AM
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If Ron Paul doesn't get the GOP nomination, the Republican Party will be toast. RIP Gop.
Suzanne | 12.01.07 09:52 AM
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The primary reason that 61% of the Republicans in NH will not support Ron Paul is that they have beed brainwashed by the NeoCon War Machine. They have been led to believe that in order for us to be secure, the USA must police the world in search of tyrants.
This Republican constituency of sheep keep our military-industrial / democracy machine in power. Too bad they don't realize that they are driving Americans toward serfdom (to Asians) and our economy towards bankruptcy.
Jake | 12.01.07 01:34 PM
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Dr. Paul is the only candidate I've ever heard mention Article I Section 8-- the enumerated powers of Congress. If the power isn't delegated to the federal government it is reserved to the states and the people of each state (see 10th Amendment). He has my support for this reason alone. A hardcore Jeffersonian through and through. And, oh my God, he actually seems like a totally decent human being. Imagine a President with unwavering moral and political principle? Admittedly, it's likely too good to be true.
Sean | 12.01.07 07:13 PM
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Ladies and Gents:
Im seeing this race from Canada, and as a wealthy old money capitalist, I have better connections than almost any reporter, or talking head radio host. All Im hearing is Ron Paul, 100% of the time, no doubt about it, hands down, Ron Paul is the one. And with over 1000 employees in the US alone, not including all the associates, partners in success, suppliers, transport personal,legal dept, Ron Paul is the only candiate to chose, My world tells me Paul has everyone talking, and Im a bloodthisty freemason ! he does all the support. America needs this man,so does the rest of the world for that matter. and I hope he has plenty of well trained gaurds with him, his competition is deadly and ruthless, because they all know Ron Paul is a winner and they are the longshots.
Ha, so entertaining it is to hear the media so desperate to call him a longshot, or resort to such things like "he fidjits when he talks" that is the true language of loser, I hope to hear more of it, because the media is one big group of losers,so easily bought, just like the whore's we send to our cheap ass clients.
You know, I think Im gonna start writing bad checks to the stations who allow these personal attacks on such a great man, and a future president at that !
think of the money i will save. there gonna be disolved anyways.
RWR
R W Rexall | 12.03.07 07:58 AM
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The man is a True patriot, with principals were to stand
Eden
Rafael Mendoza | 01.06.08 02:22 PM
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