December 31, 2007
DMR Poll: Obama Widens Lead, Huck On Top
The last Des Moines Register poll before Iowans caucus Thursday shows Barack Obama pulling ahead in the Democratic contest and Mike Huckabee maintaining a solid lead over Mitt Romney.
Obama has the backing of 32 percent of those surveyed compared with 25 percent for Hillary Clinton and 24 percent for John Edwards. Nonetheless, the DMR advises that the race is still fluid, with a third of likely caucusgoers indicating they could be persuaded to choose someone else.
"The findings mark the largest lead of any of the Democratic candidates in the Register's poll all year, underscoring what has been a hard-fought battle among the three well-organized Iowa frontrunners," the DMR's Thomas Beaumont writes this evening on the paper's Web site.
Voters surveyed said their votes will turn on who is the best change agent over who has the most experience.
"Thirty percent of the poll's respondents said a candidate's ability to bring about change is the most important, followed by 27 percent who said their priority is choosing a candidate who will be the most successful in unifying the country," Beaumont reports.
"Asked which candidate would do the best on these themes, caucusgoers most commonly name Obama. The first-term U.S. senator has argued in the closing weeks of the campaign that his newness to Washington, D.C., would help him bridge a politically divided nation and improve its standing overseas.
"Having the experience and competence to lead, which has been the crux of Clinton's closing argument, was seen as the most important to 18 percent of caucusgoers, with Clinton as the candidate most commonly rated best on this trait."
Meanwhile, in the GOP contest, Huckabee is at 32 percent, Romney is at 26 percent and John McCain garnered support from 13 percent of those polled. Ron Paul and Fred Thompson are each at 9 percent, while Rudy Giuliani is at 5 percent.
The DMR's Jonathan Roos writes that Huckabee has been buoyed by the support of Christian conservatives, while McCain's political resurrection -- thought until recently to be perhaps limited to the Granite State -- is affirmed in the survey as a broader phenomenon.
"The new poll, taken over four days ending on Sunday, shows a resurgent Arizona Sen. John McCain grabbing third place in the Republican race for the first-in-the-nation caucuses," Roos writes. "McCain tallies support from 13 percent in the poll -- a 6-point improvement since late November."
The telephone survey was taken Dec. 27-30. The margin of error is 3.5 percent in each contest.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.31.07 10:12 PM | Comments (0)
Odds And Ends ... New Year's Eve Edition
First, a happy and healthy new year to all ... Eat plentifully tonight, drive carefully, and make a daily read of On Call one of your resolutions.
Today in campaign madness ...
John Edwards was asked to respond to an earlier assertion from Barack Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, that he won't have the cash to make it to the summer convention. Here's JRE's response, per NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller:
"We have plenty of money to run a serious campaign, but I just want to say how unbelievably weak it is to be arguing that you should be the candidate because you have more money than the other candidate," Edwards said during an event in Emmetsburg. "I mean, really – does that convince anybody that that's who you should caucus for? You shouldn't even be here if that's what you're looking for! I mean, we could all just have our campaign fundraising events, send the totals in, the elections are over before you ever cast a vote! I don't think that's the way this works. I think you get to actually decide who you think is strongest, who has the fight, who has the ideas, and who's ready to be president of the United States. And I think that's exactly what's going to happen on Thursday night when you go to caucus."
Larry Rasky, Joe Biden's communications director, issued a memo today going after Edwards' argument that he's the most electable. A snippet: "So who has what it takes to carry the southern vote? Well, with so much riding on his southern electability argument, “native son” John Edwards actually fares only 4 points ahead of Joe Biden in the most recent Insider Advantage poll out of South Carolina. And if one thing is certain in the 2008 race, it’s that no Democrat will win using the same 20-plus-five strategy that has failed in the last two elections. In this general election, Joe Biden has set a 15-18 red state strategy, which not only sets him apart from the top tier, but gives him the most realistic shot at victory next November."
Bay Buchanan, sister of former presidential candidate and 1996 NH primary victor Pat Buchanan, endorsed Mitt Romney.
In the 'No he didn't category' ... Mike Huckabee pulled a negative ad against Romney but then held a press conference to show it to reporters.
Here's a New Year's web message -- called "Countdown" -- from Hillary Clinton. Production value had to be, uh, small.
And the RNC react to the HRC web spot: “Senator Clinton’s new ad is nothing more than a countdown to higher taxes, socialized medicine, government growth, greater bureaucracy, and increased spending," spokesman Danny Diaz said in a statement. " For the New Year, Clinton should resolve to be upfront and honest with the American people about her reckless fiscal policies.”
And after the jump, a bonus piece from NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann, who writes a mini profile of Damon Murphy, the bartender at 801 Grand Steak and Chop House in Des Moines.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
In a town swimming with ripe political savvy and juicy ledes, there is one man in Des Moines who holds the most important piece of information at the end of every day on the trail.
Damon Murphy knows what you're drinking.
"That Hendricks," he says, pointing at the gin and tonic that he's just set on the bar in front of me. "Now I know to get you a Hendricks the minute you walk in the door."
Damon is the bar manager at the most exclusive steakhouse in the city that – for a few months every four years – becomes a mecca for the supernovas of American politics and political journalism. As the Iowa caucuses draw near, the rich burgundy-and-chocolate decor of 801 Grand Steak and Chop House becomes the stylish after-hours watering hole of choice for the national media types, campaign gurus, and rock star consultants who have descended upon downtown Des Moines.
On any given night, Damon's domain looks like a Meet The Press roundtable -- on barstools. From his post behind the bar, he hears whiffs of scotch-laced conversation about new polls and age-old stump strategies that waft amid the smoke from high-end cigars. The array of bottles behind him reflects booths that have seated news anchor Tom Brokaw, football star Dan Marino, Iowa governor Chet Culver, and the occasional presidential candidate (Fred Thompson and John Edwards have both been to 801, although Damon admits that both came on Fridays -- his rare day off.)
And if you have a favorite drink, Damon knows it.
"Knowing tendencies," says the genteel bartender, the owner of an impeccably trimmed goatee and an astounding talent for matching faces with names. "It's part of what my job entails."
With immaculate politesse, he excuses himself for a moment. Tawny port for the seasoned television journalist down the bar. 'Same thing he always gets when he's in here," Damon murmurs.
At thirty-one, Damon is a master of the art of alcohol. He worked for over seven years as a manager at the Des Moines Marriott – also highly trafficked by campaign bigshots during the most wonderful time of the political year. Two years ago, he was working at a mom-n-pop lounge in Clive when the management of 801 recruited him.
A round of White Russians for a group of newcomers. And one black Sambuca.
How much does the pre-caucus season change the pace at 801? "The clientele is a little more astute," he says. Gesturing to the candy shop of fine liquors that line the wall behind him, he lists off the top sellers among the highbrow crowd. Lemon drop martinis. Cosmopolitans. Ports. "We had a bottle of Drambuie here for a year, it seemed like, and no one ever drank it," he chuckles. "Now we've gone through a bottle and a half."
He's right about the cosmopolitans. He makes two for the couple at the end of the bar.
What happens on January 4th? "I get a day off," he grins. (He's been working six day weeks since Thanksgiving.)
What about tips? Damon says that journalists tend to tip better than campaign staffers, and that Democrats are a bit more generous than their GOP counterparts.
The reporters sipping gin and tonics to my right pay out. Damon flashes me a confidential smile and nods meaningfully at the receipt. "Twenty percent," he mouths.
He's not a natural political junkie, but he says he can't help but be interested by the chatter of his clientele. But he won't be caucusing. "I will be here," he says, shaking his head and tapping the bar smartly. He's one of those disenfranchised by Iowa's unique caucus process, which makes attendance at the evening meeting a requirement.
When the big night comes, he'll be pouring champagne toasts for the victors and bittersweet cocktails for the campaigns on the rocks.
Another Hendricks?
If you insist.
(NBC/NJ's CARRIE DANN)
Posted 12.31.07 06:27 PM | Comments (0)
Beauty And The Huckabeast
Among those arriving in Des Moines today only to find that their luggage had been lost: CNN's Bill Schneider and PBS' Judy Woodruff (Caucus Call! luggage-losing).
On New Year's Day, Mitt Romney will be attending something called "House Party Huddles" in the Polk Co. area, where attendees will be watching the football games (Caucus Call! sources).
As a couple of dozen volunteers made phone calls on behalf of Barack Obama on 12/30, "Superman Returns" star Brandon Routh showed up with "that guy from 'Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle'" (Des Moines Register).
To help pay for the "Huckabeast" -- a purple and gold bus that five Mike Huckabee volunteers have brought to IA -- John Brewer, 46, says he sold his wedding ring on eBay for $150. Brewer: "It wasn't as popular as I thought it would be" (Des Moines Register).
Sydney Rieckhoff, 9, a Cedar Rapids fourth grader and "kid reporter" for Scholastic News, approached Chelsea Clinton after a 12/30 event and asked: "Do you think your dad would be a good 'first man' in the White House?" Chelsea "brushed her question aside," responding: "I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately" (AP).
Romney, in an Altoona coffee shop on 12/29, said: "I won't remember my friends here in Iowa. You've been an inspiration to me and Ann." A. Romney then "corrected him." Romney: "I said, 'I won't forget.' ... This is good. This is like spell check right here, you know" (Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier).
"I think it's a bunch of crap, just a bunch of political nose blowing" -- Waterloo resident Staci Johnson, 32, showing some home state pride for the caucuses (Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier).
At the '04 caucuses, John Edwards supporter Terrence Neuzil told a neighbor who was undecided: "If you vote for Senator Edwards, you can borrow anything out of my garage." And so it was (Washington Post).
Posted 12.31.07 05:35 PM | Comments (0)
Get The Hook
Mitt Romney had great success with Michigan Rep. Pete Hoekstra and his son, Bryan, on Friday. The same was true Saturday, when he was traveling with former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent and his son, Michael, and attorney Jay Sekulow and his son, Jordan. But today, Romney was joined by former Colorado congressman and failed gubernatorial candidate, Bob Beauprez. And Beauprez had one bizarre foot-in-mouth moment.
Parts of Beauprez's introductions:
"I'm very, very proud of our Republican field."
"I tell people, 'Mitt Romney was to business what Elvis Presley was to music.' He was a rock star, he stood out, he set a whole new standard."
"Then he went to the Salt Lake Olympics -- extremely difficult circumstances -- and if it wasn't tough enough already, they threw in a little event called 9/11 on top of it to complicate matters. He pulled that off in great style."
(NBC/NJ's ERIN MCPIKE)
Posted 12.31.07 11:27 AM | Comments (3)
Des Moines Register Poll ...
... out tonight.
Stay tuned.
Posted 12.31.07 11:15 AM | Comments (0)
Slow And Steady? Or Misguided?
Tim Russert said it first, but Rudy Giuliani's campaign seems to have adopted it as their mantra, "Florida, Florida, Florida."
The Giuliani campaign released its latest "strategy memo" to the press Monday, to reemphasize a late state strategy that is increasingly under scrutiny from the mainstream media.
The memo continues the usual Giuliani campaign refrain that few delegates will actually be awarded in the next couple of weeks and that the states Giuliani has focused on - Florida, Illinois, Missouri, New York, California, Georgia and New Jersey - will propel him to the nomination.
"Putting a high priority on spending our time and money in a proportional basis in Florida and the large delegate states voting on February 5th is clearly the right thing to do," said campaign strategy director Brent Seaborn.
The campaign has at times suffered from being outside the main dialogue by not exchanging barbs with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee and campaigning in other states. Now, by leaving Iowa, Giuliani is entering into a long media blackout, as well as two days of no public events. The memo serves to validate the "slow and steady" mentality the Giuliani campaign has adopted and to try and draw the attention of reporters camped out in Des Moines.
Obviously, the Giuliani campaign is trying to downplay the significance of Iowa and New Hampshire, even as Giuliani will spend the first week of the new year in the Granite State. They believe that the contest will essentially start anew on Jan. 29, and that a Giuliani victory in Florida will make him look like the frontrunner.
(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)
Seaborn acknowledges that Giuliani could finish outside the top three in Iowa, perhaps as low as sixth place. He suggests polls in the next few weeks will be contradictory and that only the numbers in Florida, which he says have been stable all year, suggest the future.
"As in all races, expect to see signs of tightening in Florida as Election Day approaches, but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race," he said. "We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win."
But the memo downplays the free media that early state winners will receive, and the effect of voters picking a perceived winner in subsequent primaries. It ignores the perceived notion that Giuliani losses in the early states, even if they are not significant to the delegate count, will hurt Giuliani's reputation and boost other candidates, which will make Florida and the Feb. 5 contests harder for him to win.
The ultimate goal of the memo, one can assume, is to get anchors and reporters covering the Iowa caucuses to acknowledge the Giuliani approach and not laud the victor with front-runner status and to try and get as much attention from the press in the next week as possible, even as they are out of state.
Posted 12.31.07 11:10 AM | Comments (0)
"Everywhere"
New Mitt Romney ad in Iowa. A whole lot less negative than the last few ...
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.31.07 11:07 AM | Comments (0)
Obama Campaign Manager Says Candidate Is Holding His Own Against "Blizzard Of Outside Money"
Barack Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, gave a 'State of the Race' talk to reporters this morning, saying that a number of factors indicate that Obama is running strongest in Iowa -- despite the deadlocked nature there of the Democratic contest.
Plouffe's key points:
Obama's crowds are the largest.
Obama is the strongest second choice candidate.
Obama is the pick of Independents.
Obama is drawing undecideds to his homestretch events.
Obama will be viable in more precincts that John F. Kerry was in 2004.(He said Kerry was not viable in about 10 percent of precincts.)
Plouffe said the campaign knocked on over 90,000 doors over the weekend. "We’ve been drawing consistently bigger crowds than either of our two main oppornents," he noted. "...We’re not just trying to build crowds for the sake of optics."
Plouffe also said that the Obama campaign has managed to hold its own in Iowa against a "blizzard of outside money" going to Hillary Clinton and John Edwards from AFSCME, Emily's List, "that shadowy 527 on behalf of Edwards." He estimated that more than $4M in outside cash has been used to bolster the Clinton and Edwards campaigns in Iowa.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, Plouffe said, Obama is in a solid two-way race with Clinton, but Clinton, he said, is "receding" while Edwards is "kinda stuck in the teens." He said he doesn't believe that John McCain's surge in the Granite State will draw undeclared voters away from Obama. "McCain’s growth has principally come from Republican voters," Plouffe said.
He also cited these numbers for proof of a strong ground game in N.H. ...
Over 100 field staff on the ground
1.6M calls made
330,000 doors knocked
Plouffe argued that Obama's campaign is best positioned in South Carolina and will be the biggest draw for African American voters. And he said Obama has the strongest ground game in the Feb. 5 states, with offices in 17 of 22 states. And one note, more than 95 percent of Obama's donors haven't maxed out, Plouffe said.
Plouffe also offered up his own math scenario for an Edwards campaign that could run out of cash by the time the party convention rolls around in August. In 2007, Plouffe said, Edwards would have had $40M to spend on the primaries, because of his commitment to take matching funds. So bump that to $50M nationwide this year, and Plouffe said, "Our estimate that Edwards would have spent by the end of this year $32M" would leave him $17M to transact all of the remaining primaries.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.31.07 10:30 AM | Comments (4)
December 30, 2007
But McCain Scores 26th N.H. Newspaper Nod
The Nashua Telegraph announced today that John McCain deserves his party's nomination. It was the second time the paper endorsed the Arizona senator; its editors backed him in 2000 against George W. Bush.
Here's one question ... Does all this McCain momentum in the Granite State come to an abrupt halt if Romney scraps together a win in Iowa? Discuss. For now, read The Telegraph's reasoning, complete with those familiar McCain descriptors, integrity and forthrightness:
Eight years ago, when he was running as a political maverick against Republican establishment candidate George W. Bush, we endorsed John McCain for the GOP nomination for president of the United States.
We did so because of his integrity.
We did so because of his leadership.
We did so because of his forthrightness and his refusal to pander to voters by telling them what they wanted to hear.
A lot of things have changed in this country during these last eight years, starting with the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, which resulted in the tragic deaths of nearly 3,000 Americans and led to the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.
But not everything has changed. McCain is here once again, crisscrossing the Granite State in his Straight Talk Express tour bus, displaying the same integrity, vision and, yes, straight talk that marked his earlier, unsuccessful run for the presidency.
Oh, and one more thing hasn't changed: our support.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.30.07 09:33 PM | Comments (5)
A Pair Of Iowa Endorsements For Romney
Mitt Romney is the man for the job, according to the Marshalltown Times-Republican and The Daily Nonpareil of Council Bluffs.
From the Marshalltown paper:
On the personal side, he is a devoted husband and loving father. He has satisfactorily, for most Republicans, clarified his position on abortion as pro-life and gave a speech on his faith to shed light on some of the concerns and misinformation on Mormonism.
The Romney campaign's favorite line from the same endorsement:
Romney is the most conservative candidate who is running.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.30.07 09:22 PM | Comments (0)
Rudy On Mitt: "A Friend" BUT "I'm A Better Candidate"
BRETTON WOODS, NH -- As many Republican candidates sharpen their knives in the lead-up to Iowa, Rudy Giuliani -- signaling his focus on the longer contest ahead -- looked to stay above the fray today.
Even as he campaigned in New Hampshire, Giuliani did not exactly pursue the typical primary course. After a town hall meeting in Plymouth, he shook hands for just a few minutes before his staff asked the crowd to leave the room so Giuliani could do a live interview on Fox News Channel. He went on to a ski lodge in Lincoln, where he exchanged quick greetings with hordes of people who seemed surprised to see him there. And he ended his day at the Mount Washington Resort, where he addressed a crowd that likely included as many out-of-staters on vacation as it did primary voters.
And as Mitt Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee exchanged more pointed barbs, the former New York mayor urged restraint. In Plymouth, when Giuliani was asked specifically how he differed from his party rivals, he invoked Ronald Reagan's eleventh commandment, saying he'll stick to talking about his record. But he did offer a Giuliani amendment to that commandment: "Don't criticize other Republicans, comma, unless they criticize me," Giuliani said. "I have to make a little exception."
That MItt quote after the jump ...
(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)
Giuliani went on to say that Republicans should not be "attacking each other. I don't think you get very much out of that." But, he added: "Of all the people in the field, I also have the most executive experience. I've run a government that is a very complicated government. ... And, I didn't just run it. I got exceptional results."
At the Mount Washington Lodge, a woman told Giuliani that the last time she saw him, he was campaigning for Mitt Romney during the 2002 gubernatorial race. She wanted to know why he was now challenging him. Giuliani did remember the night in question. "We went to a great Italian restaurant. Great meal." But he called Romney "a friend," "a very good man," and "a very worthy candidate." "I just happen to think I'm a better candidate. And that I'd be better at being president," he said.
Speaking to reporters after the Plymouth event, Giuliani said he didn't feel left out of the back-and-forth among other candidates so close to the caucuses in Iowa. In fact, he said he wouldn't even be in Iowa on caucus night - instead planning to rally supporters in Florida. "We're not involved in the back and forth about criticism of each other. I kinda like that," he said.
He also voiced confidence in his standing, even as polls show his national polling lead narrowing. "I think this race will narrow even more maybe," he said. "We expected it would be that way. Now it's a question of the Republicans deciding on who they want to be their candidate. And they'll do it in all these different states. And when you look at the states, we're in very good shape in a number of the states. And some we have some work to do. And that's why we're here."
Posted 12.30.07 09:05 PM | Comments (0)
Thompson: "Not Particularly Interested In Running For President"
AMES, IA – With four days until the Iowa caucuses, Fred Thompson continued his bus tour across the north central part of the state on Sunday, and he was asked to answer the same question he faced when he entered the race nearly four months ago: Does he really want it?
Yesterday several journalists traveling with Thompson wrote stories about a response that Thompson gave to a 'fire in the belly' question. According to a transcript of the answer posted on the campaign's website Saturday night, Thompson's response included this line, along with a longer explanation about why it is unfair to criticize his desire to president:
"I'm offering myself up," Thompson said. "I'm saying that I have the background, the capability, and the concern to do this and I'm doing it for the right reasons. But I'm not particularly interested in running for president, but I think I'd make a good president. Nowadays, the process has become much more important than it used to be."
For journalists following a candidate who has been fighting the perception that he's not all that excited about running for president, hearing that he's "not particularly interested in running for president" was understandably newsworthy. Yet the Thompson campaign took issue with the way that the media represented his response, specifically targeting this article on USAToday's website as selective and unfair.
The campaign quickly issued a response to the article on its blog: "It is clear that there are those in the media who will exact a high price for candor and from those whom they consider to be insufficiently ambitious. But it is with increasing amazement that we see that those who are willing to slant or leave out important parts of a story to make their point."
Today on the stump, Thompson wasted no time before addressing the ambition issue during his first stop of the day, telling a crowd of less than 100 supporters, "I dance to no man's tune other than my own."
"They talk about who's got the most fire in their belly and personal ambition and things like that," Thompson said. "And I say, 'Well, you know, I've got ambition. It's not personal ambition. I don't thirst for the name of president. I really think we can do some wonderful things if we work together, we could achieve the presidency, but by making it on that basis and not a personal basis it allows me to be freed up a little bit.
"I always say what's on my mind and do what's on my mind and speak the truth," he added. "I leave it up to the good people of Iowa to judge what the proper characteristics are of what you're looking for in a President of the United States."
(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)
Speaking to reporters after his event he called Saturday's story "journalistic malpractice" due to the reporters' failure to put his quotes in context. Yet he said, "Overall, I think that, you know, I don't have anything to complain about. Have [reporters] been fair always? Of course not, but I'm sure other people can say the same thing."
Even in context his response from Saturday seems to do little other than bolster his reputation of being unenthusiastic, and surely the campaign wishes it could shift the topic of conversation to other issues before Jan. 3.
Speaking with NBC/National Journal on his bus after the event, Thompson indicated that his opponents' lack of foreign policy experience is something he has tried to drive home with Iowa's caucus-goers.
"[Huckabee] certainly doesn't have any foreign policy experience, I think that's evident and historically accurate," Thompson said. "I think we're going to be in a time that needs a steady hand on the plow, and somebody who knows the kind of world we live in today and the kinds of threats we face…I've been talking about this for some time now, and talking about it in Iowa. [Huckabee and Romney's] records are clear. They have things to offer but foreign policy is not one of them."
Posted 12.30.07 08:56 PM | Comments (4)
WE HEAR
"I like to say that I'm only consumed by very, very few things, and politics is not one of them" -- Fred Thompson, really making sure that we know he doesn't care (Des Moines Register).
Asked at a town hall today to contrast himself with Mitt Romney, Barack Obama said when it comes to "swear words," Obama uses the "really harsh ones, the really good ones" ("The Swamp").
"One person even brought their pet goat out" to meet John McCain 12/29. And FYI, Dutch TV is "the consistently best dressed news outlet on the campaign trail" ("McCain Blogette").
At an event with his wife in IA today, a voter shouted to Romney: "She's cuter than you are." Romney agreed, saying: "She's a cute girl. She's hot, too." And then he mocked the motion with a lick of the finger and a "sss" (NBC/National Journal).
Bill Richardson spoke to 300 people in Des Moines where he said: "I am honored to be in this huge crowd. Thank you for giving up your Sunday. It is Sunday, right?" (“Real Clear Politics”).
Asked what he was doing the night of the caucuses, Rudy Giuliani said today: "We'll be in Florida. We'll be at a rally in Florida I believe" (NBC/National Journal).
Posted 12.30.07 06:14 PM | Comments (0)
Must Read: Broder On A Unity Govt.
The Washington Post's David Broder reports today ...
Bipartisan Group Eyes Independent Bid
First, Main Candidates Urged To Plan 'Unity' Government
New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, a potential independent candidate for president, has scheduled a meeting next week with a dozen leading Democrats and Republicans, who will join him in challenging the major-party contenders to spell out their plans for forming a "government of national unity" to end the gridlock in Washington.
Those who will be at the Jan. 7 session at the University of Oklahoma say that if the likely nominees of the two parties do not pledge to "go beyond tokenism" in building an administration that seeks national consensus, they will be prepared to back Bloomberg or someone else in a third-party campaign for president.
Conveners of the meeting include such prominent Democrats as former senators Sam Nunn (Ga.), Charles S. Robb (Va.) and David L. Boren (Okla.), and former presidential candidate Gary Hart. Republican organizers include Sen. Chuck Hagel (Neb.), former party chairman Bill Brock, former senator John Danforth (Mo.) and former New Jersey governor Christine Todd Whitman.
Serious people with serious credentials are saying enough to the partisanship polarizing Washington and dominating campaign discourse. For the full article, read here.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.30.07 12:27 PM | Comments (1)
December 29, 2007
Wake-Up Call! and Last Call! Bring You...
SO THIS IS CHRISTMAS:
"He found the house, ate all the cookies, and he drank the milk, and he took the carrots for the reindeer" -- Chris Dodd, confirming that Santa found his family in IA (CBS News).
Some lady sewed a Mitt Romney Christmas stocking for her brother using an Ames Straw Poll shirt ("Five Brothers").
CAUCUS! THE DRAMA!
Des Moines dental assistant/"very attractive young woman" Diane Herndon said she was on a "runner's high" when, upon jogging past Mitt Romney, she started "screaming" ("Washington Wire").
Martha Wolf (D), who owns Ivy Bake Shoppe and Cafe in West Burlington, IA, planned on "baking 100 blackberry scones and 50 raspberry and apricot turnovers" for McCain's 12/28 visit. She was also planning to "bake some sugar cookies," but she wasn't sure whether to make "elephant-shaped or donkey-shaped" (Des Moines Register).
A "small group of Guardian Angels, wearing their distinctive red berets," showed up at a forum in Fort Dodge for Giuliani ("The Caucus")
At its first preview on 12/27, "Caucus! The Musical" "drew raves from an almost full house" in Des Moines. The play "features Nora Halliday, a black woman, and Benjamin Goldman, a gay Jew, duking it out on the left, and Rev. Stanley Jensen, a Christian conservative, and Sen. Harrison Tate, a moderate" GOPer, fighting on the right ("The Trail"). Spoiler Alert: Ultimately, the “fringe candidate with a simple message wins over” the undecided caucus-goers/actors (Caucus Call! sources).
BEAU BIDEN WATCH:
Obama's two sisters, Auma Obama and Maya Soetoro-Ng, will swing through Obama's Cedar Falls and Waterloo offices today "to visit with and fire up volunteers and supporters" (Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier).
Ann Romney, speaking at an ice cream parlor in Le Mars, IA, on 12/28, said that Romney "makes extraordinary mashed potatoes." Later, in Sioux City, she said that "he taught her how to change their son's diapers" (Des Moines Register).
Elizabeth and Cate Edwards held a "coffee discussions" today with undecided caucus-goers at “Small Planet Restaurant” (release).
Beau Biden will "fan out" across IA for meet-and-greets this week (release).
OHHHHH, BEHIND THE SCENES:
"The snow covered campaign office on Grand Avenue in Des Moines begins to buzz somewhere around seven in the morning. A seemingly endless supply of doughnuts are brought in by staff and volunteers while the aroma of freshly brewed coffee swirls through the winding corridors of the headquarters" -- Dodd internet strategist Tim Tagaris, revealing the inner workings of the Dodd camp in a fundraising email appeal (Caucus Call! email).
The Clinton and Edwards camps "work out of a single building that has been divided into two separate business spaces" in Warren Co., IA. (Des Moines Register).
A “WEST WING” DIVIDED:
Actor/Activist Martin Sheen will campaign in IA for Bill Richardson tomorrow and Monday. Meanwhile, at several events this weekend Joe Biden was joined by Sheen’s fellow thespian, Richard Schiff, best known for his role as Toby Ziegler on “The West Wing” (Caucus Call! sources).
UPDATE: A "severe, contagious cold" has forced Martin Sheen to cancel his scheduled campaign stops with Richardson (release). Tear.
Nora McAlvanah, Editor
Maura O'Brien and Holly Noe, Associate Editors
Posted 12.29.07 09:50 PM | Comments (2)
Odds And Ends ... The Democrats
Joe Biden today received the endorsement of three County Democratic Party Chairs in Iowa, Pat Sass of Black Hawk County; Jean Hall of Clayton County; and Linda Carrillo, of Cedar County. All three will serve on the Biden for President Campaign statewide steering committee.
Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton will ring in 2008 at a 'New Year, New Beginnings Celebration' in Des Moines at Capitol Square at 10:00 p.m. CST.
Bill Richardson has centered his run for the White House on his call for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq. A new mailer going out to Iowa Democrats highlights his plan and slams the three Democratic frontrunners for their more gradual strategy to pull US forces from the region, reports NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann. "Clinton, Edwards, Obama: Tens of Thousands Left Behind" reads the bold-lettered text. A carefully footnoted series of paragraphs follows: "Clinton, Edwards, and Obama have said they would leave tens of thousands of troops in Iraq." "What's more," it continues, "each has 'refused to promise to bring all American troops home from Iraq by January 2013.'"
Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota endorsed Barack Obama today.
And Obama has a new ad -- "Hope" -- up in Iowa today ...
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.29.07 07:23 PM | Comments (0)
"Permanently"
Mitt Romney's second ad in as many days hitting John McCain went up today in the Granite State. This one goes after him on immigration.
What must Romney's internals look like?
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.29.07 07:16 PM | Comments (0)
John Edwards Says 'No' To Fed Lobbyists ... But State Lobbyists Apparently Ok With JRE
UPDATE: Edwards Camp Responds ... From Edwards spokesman Eric Schultz: "Either you lobby the federal government, or you don't. Either you are paid to influence legislation and the people who write it, or you aren't. The line is clear - and only murky for rival campaigns or reporters who are trying to blur it," reports NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller.
The earlier On Call post:
John Edwards told a crowd at a Washington, Iowa, library this morning that he would not hire any former corporate or foreign government lobbyists in his administration.
"I want to make an announcement today, which is that when I am president of the United States, no corporate lobbyist or anyone who has lobbied for a foreign government will work in my White House," he said, reports NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller.
Following the town hall, Edwards reiterated to reporters that that means he will not hire anyone who has ever been registered as a federal lobbyist in Washington, D.C. He said that would include "people who have lobbied, been registered lobbyists in Washington on behalf of corporate interests at the federal level ... corporate lobbyists, those who've lobbied against the interests of the American people, those who've lobbied on behalf of foreign governments."
Asked whether that would include federal lobbyists who have worked on behalf of interests like labor that he champions, Edwards replied, "This will be a judgment I'll make, but my view is that anybody who has been lobbying on behalf of big corporations are part of the problem because corporate greed is at the heart and soul of what's stealing the future of our children and what's killing the middle class in our country."
He said his announcement has nothing to do with other candidates' choices. "I think it would be a great thing for America if the other Democrats would commit to the same thing, but this is about my presidency," he said.
But check out this On Call post, which was reported Dec. 21 and is pasted below, about a Wisconsin lobbyist who bundles for Edwards and helped kill a state ethanol mandate.
So there won't be place for federal lobbyists in an Edwards administration, but a state lobbyist can raise money for candidate Edwards???
Edwards said today that Tyre is a friend and supporter, Miller reports. He said he had "no idea" whether Tyre is a lobbyist. "I know he's not a Washington lobbyist," Edwards said.
Loyal Edwards Fundraiser Killed Ethanol Initiative In Wisc.
Scott Tyre, a Wisconsin lobbyist who sits on John Edwards' national finance committee, has worked to kill ethanol mandates in Madison. In fact, Tyre's own firm, Capitol Navigators, advertises his efforts to tank that bill next to quotes from longtime Edwards loyalists Ed Turlington and Nick Baldick praising Tyre's "work ethic" and "brain power."
"Scott is regarded as one of the top contract lobbyists at the Capitol. When it comes crunch time and you need votes as we did during the ethanol mandate debate in the 2005-06 session, Scott was one of the first persons I called for help. His contacts and lobbying skills are certainly one of the reasons we were able to kill the bill in the Senate."
--Erin Roth, Executive Director of Wisconsin Petroleum Council/Division of the American Petroleum Institute
Tyre is an Edwards bundler, according to Public Citizen.
Edwards has said on the campaign trail that ethanol is one key to moving the country toward energy independence.
Earlier, On Call reported that Joy Philippi, the rural co-chair of Hillary Clinton's campaign, has worked to kill ethanol subsidies. A former president of the National Pork Producers Council, Phillipi is a Nebraska farmer.
Certainly that item smacked of greater irony than this Edwards post. But Tyre's anti-ethanol efforts -- his firm has also represented the American Petroleum Institute -- contradict Edwards' campaign trail pitch for expanded production of renewable energy sources. And Edwards, as we all know, slams lobbyists at every diner, community center, debate and school rally. It seems perplexing at best then that he'd have one on his team who is fighting his very policies.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.21.07 05:35 PM | Comments (2)
Posted 12.29.07 07:01 PM | Comments (2)
Concord Monitor For HRC
The Concord Monitor teased its Sunday endorsement of Hillary Clinton today, citing her "smarts, experience and toughness" as reasons, among others, for the pick.
Here is the link to the Primary Monitor blog, and an excerpt from the editorial:
Clinton's ambitious to-do list for her first few weeks in office gives us confidence that her priorities are right and that she would act swiftly to make a positive difference. She is the Monitor's choice in the Jan. 8 Democratic primary.
New Hampshire Democrats and independents are blessed with a strong field of presidential candidates at a time when a change of course is desperately needed. We have been impressed by Joe Biden's pragmatic foreign policy and by John Edwards's insistence that we pay attention to the poorest Americans.
Barack Obama, more than most, has the power to inspire. The positive tone of his campaign is not a gimmick. He is a serious candidate with sober ideas. For reasons symbolic and substantive, he would also be a nominee Democrats could feel proud to vote for.
But Hillary Clinton's unique combination of smarts, experience and toughness makes her the best choice to win the November election and truly get things done.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.29.07 06:50 PM | Comments (3)
Huck Hearts McCain ... For Good Reason
If Mike Huckabee can defeat Mitt Romney in Iowa and John McCain dispatches the former Massachusetts governor in the Granite State, the one-two punch could knock Romney right out of the race. And Huck, by expressing his admiration for McCain last night in Ottumwa, shows plainly that he hopes the two men can do just that. Read on for the details of Huck's praise for the Arizona senator, per NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy ...
OTTUMWA, IA – After weeks of lobbing veiled criticisms towards his primary opponent in Iowa, Mike Huckabee finally invoked Mitt Romney's name here Friday night before nearly 500 supporters. Huckabee took advantage of the large crowd's enthusiasm by spending almost 45 minutes succinctly defending his record along with the record of fellow candidate John McCain, who has recently been the subject of Romney's attacks in New Hampshire.
"I'm kind of expecting to be attacked here in Iowa," Huckabee told the crowd. "We've spent one dollar for every twenty that Mitt Romney has spent in this state…and we're leading. We're ahead. And so when people get that far behind having spent that much money they get desperate. Desperate is one thing but dishonest is something else and when you get desperate and dishonest it's not a very pretty sight. But then I saw the ad that [Romney's] using against Sen. McCain in New Hampshire.
"Now folks, Sen. McCain is – I guess by many people's standards he's a rival. He's a candidate for president in the Republican Party like I am, but as I've said on national television and as I would say on any stage in America regardless of the politics John McCain is a true, honest to God American hero, and we should respect him and honor him for who he is."
Although Huckabee didn't discuss McCain's record in his speech, his campaign's senior advisor, Ed Rollins, implied afterwards that Romney's new video attacking McCain was the last straw.
"[Romney] fired on us before Christmas," Rollins said. "We thought okay, we'll finish this thing on a high note. We're winning. He fires off this terrible, distorted ad today on us again tonight. Fires off a terrible distorted ad against McCain – we sort of said, hey, there's plenty of stuff on this guy. He doesn't get to take free shots on everybody … He doesn't want to discuss his record, wants to distort ours, we're happy to discuss his record, and I think that's what the governor did tonight."
(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)
Huckabee addressed Romney's criticisms issue by issue, often reiterating lines of defense he has been using for weeks but replacing the passive "my opponent" with the more pointed "Mr. Romney." He cited specific instances to refute Romney's criticisms of his record on taxes, crime, and infrastructure maintenance, even finding some time to throw some punches of his own.
"I know that Mr. Romney has said that he's pro-life, but that's a new position for him," Huckabee said towards the end of his speech. "Just before he left office he signed a health care bill that provides an elective abortion for a fifty-dollar co pay. When he tells you he only signed pro-life legislation, ask him about that.
"I'm not here tonight to be unkind, but I want to set the record straight. And today, when I realized, that it was going to be the time not just attacking me, but even attacking Sen. McCain, I thought you guys have the right to know the truth."
No telling how much of this new "truth" pitch will become a staple in Huckabee's future stump speeches. As Rollins said after the event, "Mike Huckabee runs his own campaign, and at every speech…he stands up and says what's on his mind."
Posted 12.29.07 10:07 AM | Comments (4)
Concord Monitor: GOP's Best Choice Is McCain
The Concord Monitor editorial ... This could be an even bigger boost for John McCain than the Globe's nod, for example. Why? Because the Monitor and the Manchester Union Leader are rarely on the same page in a race with so many candidates and so much at stake. And the critical points in both endorsements of McCain -- honesty, integrity, consistency, experience.
Like the gyroscopes that keep ships and planes on course, firm principles and a profound sense of honor guide Sen. John McCain. He learns from his mistakes, but he does not abandon long-held beliefs, even when his stands could cost him the presidency.
McCain's willingness to break with his party on issues like climate change and immigration, his honesty and his refusal to pander make him the Monitor's choice in the Jan. 8 Republican presidential primary.
Last summer in Concord, with his campaign broke and his unwavering support for the war in Iraq costing him politically, McCain said he would rather lose the presidential race than lose the war. No one in the room doubted that he meant exactly what he said. Since then, he has earned the support of New Hampshire voters by attending town meeting after town meeting, where he has invited tough questions and answered them.
McCain advocates an immigration policy that secures the border but stops short of the impossible task of summarily deporting the millions of people in the United States illegally. His attempt to pass immigration reform, McCain says, taught him that the American people won't trust politicians to deal with the issue unless they secure the borders first. This admission is proof that politicians can change for good reasons, not for expediency's sake.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Although his plan to address the nation's growing health insurance crisis is too modest to guarantee care for all, it is more reasonable than the plans of his opponents.
Unlike rivals who hide behind legalisms and caveats, McCain stands front and center to announce that American must never engage in waterboarding or any other form of torture. McCain spent more than five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. In one of the most stirring speeches of the presidential campaign, he said:
"We could never gain as much from that torture as we lose in world opinion. We do not torture people. When I was in Vietnam, one of the things that sustained us, as we underwent torture, is the knowledge that if we had our positions reversed, we would not impose that kind of treatment on them. It's not about the terrorists, it's about us. It's about what kind of country we are."
When McCain approaches a decision, his first battle is with his own conscience. He doesn't put his finger into the political wind but runs against it if need be to do what he thinks is right.
In his long career in public life, he has proved to be a fiscal conservative and a strong believer in personal responsibility. But he has also shown that he knows that life can be fickle and people frail, and that there are times when government must help people in need.
We do not agree with McCain on every issue. We doubted the wisdom of committing more American troops to a surge in Iraq, yet events may prove McCain right. Either way, we are secure in the knowledge that in coming to his decision, McCain put the well-being of the nation and the troops above all else.
As a soldier and a senator, McCain has proven that he can lead. His legislative history demonstrates his willingness to work in a bipartisan manner to achieve common ends. And because he has paid the price of war, he more than the other candidates can gauge whether putting troops in harm's way is worth the consequences.
Earlier in the campaign, when McCain was being counted out, a consultant might have urged a makeover: Lose the moral compass on torture and immigration, ditch the vision for a turnaround in Iraq.
Not a chance. John McCain held on to his principles and defended them with dignity.
New Hampshire residents who vote in the Republican primary should reward that integrity with their votes.
Posted 12.29.07 09:57 AM | Comments (0)
December 28, 2007
HRC: To Send Democratic Message To Extremists Iowans Must Vote
MASON CITY, IA, Dec 28 – In a speech here Friday night Hillary Clinton drew the most direct link between the unrest in Pakistan and the Jan. 3rd caucuses.
"On Thursday night, in a very real way, those of you who caucus will be not only standing up for a candidate, but standing up for our democracy,” she said to applause.
Clinton has been talking about the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in every speech over the last two days, and her message has slowly evolved from an emphasis on Pakistan to one urging people to participate in democracy in America and highlighting the importance of women’s rights.
"I hope that the people of Pakistan can now have the opportunity to perhaps stand up and be heard, that their government and the leadership of their country will realize that the path to democracy is the best path," she said. "It's the safest path. It is the most likely path to prevent a takeover of Pakistan or contuining violence by those extremists who are against democracy, against women’s rights, against the future."
Then she made her plea: "Now, maybe more than ever, we have to pick a president who is ready on day one to meet the challenges and provide the solutions that our country demands."
She ended with an appeal she has developed in the last week or so, urging Iowans to stand up for themselves -- and for others who can’t caucus.
"There will be people who are not in even Iowa who will be hoping and praying that you’ll caucus for them," she said. "People who care about the direction of our country."
(NBC/NJ's ATHENA JONES)
Posted 12.28.07 09:48 PM | Comments (0)
Guest Post ... Ron Brownstein
College Women and Blue Collar Men:
Holding the Democratic Primary Nomination in Their Hands
Why is the Iowa Democratic presidential race so close? One key reason is that former Sen. John Edwards is executing a demographic squeeze on both Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama, the two candidates well ahead of him in the national polls.
From the outset of her campaign, Clinton in almost all surveys has run better among women than men and better among voters without a college education than those with college degrees or more. In most polls, in most places, Obama’s support has followed the reverse pattern-more male and particularly more college- educated. Edwards’ coalition hasn’t been as sharply defined: in almost all surveys, he has drawn about evenly from both men and women, and both better and less-educated voters.
The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg News poll in Iowa released Thursday shows this pattern largely persisting. But detailed data from the survey provided by Times Polling Director Susan Pinkus shows the dynamic also shifting in ways that carry important implications not only for Iowa but potentially other states to follow.
(Atlantic Media Political Director RON BROWNSTEIN)
These trends have produced starkly contrasting patterns of support for the two top contenders, Clinton and Obama. Clinton has been strongest in the place where her two advantages intersect: among women with less than a college education. Obama, inversely, has run best among college men-the point where his two advantages converge. The swing groups in the Democratic primary have been those conflicted between class and gender: non-college men, and college-educated women.
Among the non-college women-a group often described as waitress moms-Clinton still leads comfortably, if not quite as massively as she has in some earlier polls: the Times/Bloomberg survey found these voters dividing 41% for Clinton, 24% for Obama, and just 20% for Edwards. Among the college men, Obama is still strong, and Clinton still weak, but Edwards has emerged as a formidable competitor and is pressuring Obama in his stronghold: college men, in the survey, broke 31% for Obama, 29% for Edwards, and 15% for Clinton.
Looking just at Clinton and Obama, then, the New York Senator leads her Illinois rival by 17 percentage points with her strongest group (the non college women), while he leads her by 16 points with his strongest group (the college men). The Clinton camp can easily accept that trade because the non-college women outnumber the college men in the survey’s likely electorate by almost three-to-one.
But Clinton is struggling with the two key swing groups. At her highest points this fall, much of her gain in national surveys came from swelling support among college-educated women-many of whom were initially cool to her. In Iowa, those doubts have resurfaced: now she only attracts 34% of college-educated women, compared to 35% for Obama and 13% for Edwards.
In most places, in most surveys, Clinton also ran well through the fall among blue-collar men. But in the Times/Bloomberg Iowa survey, she attracted only 22% of them. That was still more than Obama (just 20%). But Edwards, with his biting populist message, now draws 35% of blue-collar Iowa men.
In effect, then, Edwards is siphoning away votes both Obama and Clinton probably hoped to attract here. Because Edwards is now stronger among men than women, he is hurting Obama (especially among college men). But because Edwards is stronger downscale than upscale, he is hurting Clinton (especially among the non-college men).
All of these cross pressures have produced a race far too close to call.
Another Times/Bloomberg survey in New Hampshire found similar patterns emerging among Democrats there too. Clinton led Obama by 17 percentage points (42% to 25%) among the non-college women, almost exactly the same advantage (40% to 22%) Obama enjoys over her among college men. (Her group again outnumbers his, though not as widely as in Iowa.) And, as in Iowa, the college women are divided almost evenly between them, with 30% preferring Obama, and 28% Clinton.
But in New Hampshire, Obama has opened a significant advantage among blue-collar men, leading Clinton 36% to 19%. If Obama could hold that advantage in New Hampshire, and extend it to other states, it would be critical because he has generally struggled with that group this year (and obviously still is struggling with them in Iowa).
In contrast to Iowa, Edwards runs third in New Hampshire with all four groups and doesn’t show much variation by gender or education; his support in the Granite State has reverted to the prairie-flat pattern evident in most national polls.
The momentum that the winners in Iowa and New Hampshire will acquire-and the deflation suffered by the losers-could scramble all of these patterns at least somewhat. But Clinton’s hold on non-college women, and Obama’s appeal to college-educated men, is now so consistent in polls that it doesn’t appear likely that anything short of a complete campaign collapse by either candidate will fundamentally dislodge it. That may leave the nomination in the hands of the college women and blue collar men that are displaying the greatest ambivalence about-and least durable attachments to-all of the leading contenders.
Ronald Brownstein.
Posted 12.28.07 09:12 PM | Comments (1)
Odds And Ends ... With Six Days And Counting
Former New Hampshire First Lady Gale Thomson announced her endorsement of Mitt Romney today; Thomson is the wife of late Gov. Meldrim Thomson Jr., a prickly and quintessentially NH Republican. He hated taxes, loved guns and was a stalwart advocate for the state's "Live Free or Die" motto.
The National Troopers Coalition -- which has over 40,000 members throughout the nation -- endorsed Rudy Giuliani today. Meanwhile, from Fort Dodge, Iowa, NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger reports that the Giuliani campaign circulated a new lit piece today, featuring a certain televangelist ...
Instead of the standard red, white and blue, Giuliani's latest pamphlet is gold, with "Shared Values Coalition" in bold letters at the top. And inside is Giuliani, side by side with Pat Robertson. It quotes his remarks on faith from the Value Voters Summit in October and other religious leaders. "Rudy Giuliani Shares Our Values" is in block letters along the top. It also includes a new set of "The Mayor's Commitments." It's not the standard "Twelve Commitments" Giuliani references on a daily basis. This set of ten includes supporting the Defense of Marriage Act, parental notifications for abortions and strengthening home schooling. The brochure looks to galvanize members behind a new, faith-based coalition, called the "Shared Values Coalition." This handout was nowhere to be seen in Florida the last few days, Berger reports.
ABC News reported that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are dueling for Iowa TV time the night before the caucuses:
On Thursday, Clinton's campaign announced that she would buy a two minute block of time on every 6pm newscast in the state.
Obama's camp countered by requesting either a two or five minute window of time during the stations' local newscasts, during the period between local news and primetime programming, or during primetime.
And they tried to one-up Clinton -- not only asking for more time, but asking if the Senator could make his pitch live via satellite.
And Ann Romney heads to Iowa tomorrow to campaign for her husband in Bondurant, Grimes, Waukee and Des Moines.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.28.07 08:16 PM | Comments (0)
Ads Galore
Mitt Romney hit John McCain earlier today in an ad running in N.H. It's Mike Huckabee's turn as target in a new Romney ad called "Ready" ... To run in Iowa, of course. Mitt's hits against Huck -- in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, pardons and commutations, and foreign policy.
And McCain smacks back in N.H. with "Consider" ... Script for the 30-second spot:
ANNCR: As you hear Mitt Romney attack John McCain, consider these words from New Hampshire newspapers. ... The Union Leader says John McCain has "conviction" and "Granite Staters want a candidate who will look them in the eye and tell them the truth." "John McCain has done that." "Mitt Romney has not." The Concord Monitor writes, "If a candidate is a phony ... we'll know it." "Mitt Romney is such a candidate." That's why Romney's hometown newspaper says the "choice is clear:" John McCain.
Fred Thompson's new Iowa ad is called "Substance" ... Stresses his National Right to Life endorsement and other "conservative" credentials:
Announcer: The Wall Street Journal says Fred Thompson's tax cut plan "leads the GOP field." A leading economic group calls it a plan "conservatives can rally around." The conservative National Review says only Thompson has outlined "specific, conservative policies" on immigration. Investor's Daily says Thompson's national security plan features a "Reaganesque rebuilding of our military." And the National Right to Life Committee endorsed him because they know he can win. Fred Thompson. The clear conservative choice
Barack Obama has two new ads up in Iowa. Called "Interest" and "Listening" ...
New Hillary Clinton spot in Iowa, called, well, "President" ... Focuses on nation's housing crisis. Not the warmest spot. All business.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.28.07 07:49 PM | Comments (0)
If It's Sunday ...
Here's the lineup for the Sunday and other weekend public affairs shows:
Meet the Press hosts Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama.
This Week hosts John McCain and Hillary Clinton.
Face the Nation hosts John Edwards.
Fox News Sunday hosts Fred Thompson.
Late Edition hosts Chris Dodd and Joe Biden.
Washington Week hosts Bloomberg’s Janine Zacharia on the death of Benazir Bhutto; Slate’s John Dickerson on the final stretch before the IA caucuses and the Washington Post’s David Broder and Time’s Karen Tumulty on the Dem and GOP ‘08ers (PBS, FRI, 8 p.m.).
Political Capital hosts Edwards (Bloomberg, FRI, 10 p.m.).
Newsmakers hosts NH GOP Chair Fergus Cullen questioned by Politico's David Mark and Christian Science Monitor’s Gail Russell Chaddock (C-SPAN, SUN, 10 a.m./6 p.m.).
Chris Matthews Show hosts Time’s Joe Klein, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Newsweek’s Howard Fineman, and NPR’s Michele Norris on the IA caucuses (NBC, check local listings). [EMILY GOODIN]
Posted 12.28.07 05:03 PM | Comments (0)
Michelle Obama: "It's Now Or Never"
Michelle Obama in the new Vanity Fair tells contributing editor Leslie Bennetts that “it’s now or never,” with regard to her husband’s bid for the presidency. “We’re not going to keep running and running and running, because at some point you do get the life beaten out of you. It hasn’t been beaten out of us yet. We need to be in there now, while we’re still fresh and open and fearless and bold. You lose some of that over time. Barack is not cautious yet; he’s ready to change the world, and we need that.”
More excerpts after the jump. The full interview can be read here.
Michelle Obama also talks with Bennetts about:
NOT PRETENDING HER HUSBAND IS PERFECT:
“I can’t do that. That’s not me. I love my husband. I think he’s one of the most brilliant men I’ve ever met, and he knows that. But he’s not perfect, and I don’t want the world to want him to be perfect. If you look for that, then people can’t try hard stuff, because you might mess up. We want leaders to be bold and to try some things that might not work, because they might work and be great. I think that’s one of our failings as a nation—we’re looking for our leaders to be something that’s not realistic, and then we’re deeply disappointed when they don’t live up to those unrealistic standards. So let’s shake that up a little bit. We’re moving into the 21st century, and life is different. We’ve struggled; we’ve grown. Let’s not be hypocrites about it, either. Let’s not say we want one thing and then demand you be something you’re not.”
BARACK AT HOME:
“When he comes home, he’s taking out the garbage and he’s doing the laundry and he’s making up the beds, because the girls need to see him doing that, and he knows I need him to do that. And that was a meeting of the minds that we had to reach. I wasn’t content with saying, ‘You’re doing important things in the world, so go off and be important and I’ll handle everything else here’—because the truth is, if I did that, I’d probably still be angry.”
PUTTING HER CAREER ON THE BACK BURNER:
“The way I look at it is, We’re running for president of the United States. Me, Barack, Sasha, Malia, my mom, my brother, his sisters—we’re all running. I can’t hold down a full-time job … and be on the road three or four days a week. Barack has never asked me to stop doing my job; as far as he was concerned, ‘You have to do whatever makes you feel comfortable.’ But, for me, it was: How can I not be part of this? How can I go to work every day, when we’re trying to do something I believe in?”
THE OBAMAS’ DIFFERING VIEWS ABOUT WHAT MAKES A FAMILY:
“I came into our marriage with a more traditional notion of what a family is. It was what I knew growing up—the mother at home, the father works, you have dinner around the table…. And then I married a man who came from a very different kind of upbringing. He didn’t grow up with a father; his mother traveled the world. So we both came to this marriage with very different notions about what children need, and what does a couple need to be happy. So I had to give up some of my notions, and so did he. That’s part of being married; everyone makes compromises. Once I got a sense that the family we were creating was going to be good for our children, I realized that it wasn’t exactly what I had, but our children are thriving and they feel loved.”
FINDING OUT HER HUSBAND WANTED TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT SO SOON AFTER BECOMING A U.S. SENATOR:
“I thought, Uhhhh—you’re kidding! It was like, No, not right now—right? There was a period of ‘Let’s not do this now; let’s press the “easy” button! Can we get a break, please?’ So we had to talk about it. Before I signed on, I had to know, in my mind and my heart, how is this going to work for me, and would I be O.K. with that? He wouldn’t have done this if he didn’t feel confident that I felt good about it, because it is a huge sacrifice. The pressure and stress on the family isn’t new. But we entered this thing knowing it was going to be really, really hard. For us, the question was: are we ready to do something really hard again, right after doing something that was really hard?”
CENSORING HERSELF FOR THE PRESS:
“I’m kind of sarcastic, and I’ve felt that my sense of humor had to be subjugated on some level. My husband loves my sense of humor, and we tease each other mercilessly. But if somebody doesn’t get the joke, then you become a caricature of what the joke was. So it’s like, Well, jeez—let me not joke, then, if it’s going to be all that problematic. People get real worked up about some things I felt were really minor, funny, harmless observations about who we are as people.”
WHAT KIND OF FIRST LADY SHE’D BE:
“I am really being as authentically me as I can be. When people ask, ‘What kind of First Lady will you be?’—I’m going to try, in all this, to be honest, hopefully funny, and open, and share important parts of me with people, hopefully in a way that will help them think about their lives and avoid the mistakes we may have made in our lifetime. What you see on the trail is probably who I will be as First Lady, because that’s really who I am.”
Posted 12.28.07 10:47 AM | Comments (2)
West Wingers Go To Iowa
Richard Schiff, who played Toby Ziegler on "The West Wing," will campaign for Joe Biden this week in Waterloo, Independence, Manchester, Elkader, Dubuque, Mason City, Ames, and Des Moines.
In a statement issued by the campaign, Schiff said this about the Delaware senator:
“The West Wing inspired its audience to seek the kind of presidential leadership that is based on experience, judgment, wisdom, and conscience,” said Schiff. “On January 3rd, Iowans will have the opportunity to choose a president who can deliver that leadership by caucusing for Joe Biden. I believe that the enormous challenges facing our country at home and abroad—from safely leaving Iraq, to improving our education system, to the crisis that erupted yesterday in Pakistan—require Joe Biden’s expertise in foreign affairs and constitutional law, his ability to unite the country, and his steadfast values, which include, most importantly, telling the truth. Iowa, and America, need Joe Biden because he is ready to lead from Day One and in the high-stakes world we live in, there are no re-takes.”
Meanwhile, Martin Sheen, the fictional president himself, endorsed Bill Richardson yesterday and will campaign for him Sunday and Monday in Iowa.
"Bill Richardson has the proven record of success and the real-world experience that this country needs in our next President: he is ready for prime time," Sheen said in a statement issued by Richardson's campaign. "In this, the most important Presidential election of our time, with so much on the line, I believe that Bill Richardson is the only one who can create the change that we so desperately need to restore America's standing in the world and to get our country back on the right path at home."
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.28.07 10:14 AM | Comments (1)
"Endorsed" ... McCain's Answer
New John McCain spot running in Boston and N.H. markets. A postive answer to Mitt Romney's negative spot. Watch here.
Script for "Endorsed" (:30-TV)
ANNCR 1: After taking a close look,
20 newspapers all across New Hampshire endorse John McCain.
Here's what they're saying:
ANNCR 2: McCain campaigns with decency
ANNCR 1: The right stuff ...
ANNCR 2: To become among our greatest presidents
ANNCR 1: Principled
ANNCR 2: Character
ANNCR 1: Integrity and honor
ANNCR 2: Impeccable national security credentials
ANNCR 1: McCain transcends partisanship
ANNCR 2: Most trustworthy
ANNCR 1: The man to lead America
ANNCR 2: All across New Hampshire newspapers agree
ANNCR 1: The choice is clear. For President: John McCain
JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.28.07 10:08 AM | Comments (1)
"Future" ... New Romney Ad Hits McCain in NH
New Mitt Romney ad to run in the Granite State hits John McCain for voting against the Bush tax cuts (twice) and opposing a repeal of the death tax. He "pushed to allow every illegal immigrant to stay here permanently," the narrator says of McCain.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.28.07 10:01 AM | Comments (1)
December 27, 2007
The Two-Minute Warning
Hillary Clinton's campaign announced today that HRC will make her final closing argument to Iowans in a two-minute televised appearance on the eve of the caucuses. The taped message will air on every 6PM newscast throughout the state, reports NBC/NJ's Athena Jones.
Expensive closing message ... HRC spokesman Jay Carson would not provide Jones with the cost of the buys.
Posted 12.27.07 10:03 PM | Comments (1)
Odds And Ends, The Edwards Edition
The speech
John Edwards gives his homestretch defining speech tomorrow at 12:45 p.m. in Dubuque. This excerpt was circulated this afternoon by his campaign:
“Nobody who takes their money and defends the broken system is going to bring change. And, unfortunately, nobody who thinks we can just sit down and talk them into compromise is going to bring change either. Why on earth would we expect the corporate powers and their lobbyists – who make billions by selling out the middle-class – to just give up their power because we ask them nicely? Compromise and conciliation is the academic theory of change. It just doesn’t work in the real world. Fighting for conviction is the historic reality of change.”
The call
Meanwhile, Edwards was the only candidate to speak with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf today. He told a crowd in Decorah about the call.
“He called me because I told the ambassador I’d like to speak to him. I met him a few years ago, which I think I told you earlier, and we had a conversation in which I urged him to continue the democratization process,” the former North Carolina senator said, reports NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller. “He told me – he gave me his assurances that he intended to do that, and we also spoke about having international independent investigators allowed into the country for transparency purposes, for credibility purposes, and we spoke briefly about the elections.”
The Madrasah mention
And finally, and Edwards had a Bob Kerreyesque Madrasah mention during an interview with Radio Iowa. Or didn't he? You decide. A snippet of the exchange. Fuller interview here.
Reporter: "How did you get in touch with Musharraf? What's the relationship there?"
Edwards: "I met Musharraf years ago in Islamabad. We talked about many of the problems that his country was faced with including kids being educated in Madrasahs and some of the struggles that he was having within his own country and so when I spoke to the ambassador earlier today I said if Musharraf, if the president had time would you have him give me a call because I'd like to speak with him directly and he called."
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.27.07 07:01 PM | Comments (1)
"Office"
Joe Biden has a new spot up in Iowa today ... "Office" ...
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.27.07 01:09 PM | Comments (0)
Obama's Big Pitch
DES MOINES, IA -- Rooting his run for the presidency in what he said is his hope for a better America born from his own personal story, Barack Obama said today he has "the right kind of experience" to be president.
"The truth is, you can have the right kind of experience and the wrong kind of experience. Mine is rooted in the real lives of real people, and it will bring real results -- if we have the courage to change. I believe deeply in those words. But they are not mine. They were Bill Clinton's in 1992, when Washington insiders questioned his readiness to lead," Obama told the crowd to laughs and cheers.
Saying that the change he provides is what "Washington needs now," Obama ran through a litany of attacks on why he should be chosen to be the next president of the United States over Sens. John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.
Turning Clinton's words from the Jefferson Jackson Dinner against her, Obama said, "There's no shortage of anger and bluster and bitter partisanship out there. We don't need more heat. We need more light."
Obama also criticized Edwards for not acting to reduce the power of lobbyists and special interest influence while he was a senator in Washington -- or the impact of 527s on the campaign.
"There are others in this race who say that this kind of change sounds good, but that I'm not angry or confrontational enough to get it done," he said. "…I'm the only candidate in this race who hasn't just talked about taking power away from lobbyists, I've actually done it. So if you want to know what kind of choices we'll make as President, you should take a look at the choices we made when we had the chance to bring about change that wasn't easy or convenient."
Returning to an argument raised by Democrats in the 2004 election against President Bush, Obama also implied that his fellow Democrats with using Republican scare tactics to prevent them from voting for him.
"We can't afford the same politics of fear that tells Democrats that the only way to look tough on national security is to talk, act, and vote like George Bush Republicans; that invokes 9/11 as a way to scare up votes instead of a challenge that should unite all Americans to defeat our real enemies," he said.
The speech was billed as Obama's final argument, but for the journalists who follow him on a daily basis there was little new to his pitch or his attacks. What he did do seven days before the Iowa caucuses was to clearly outline his case to be president, addressing both what he deems his strengths and perceived weaknesses -- and casting a message of hope.
(NBC/NJ's ASWINI ANBURAJAN)
Posted 12.27.07 12:54 PM | Comments (2)
"Freedom" -- New Rudy Ad Running Nationally ...
On FOX News and in Florida and N.H. ...
Script for "Freedom", complete with nod to Tom Brokaw, after the jump.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
MAYOR GIULIANI: “Right before September 11 and months before I had read this book about the greatest generation written by Tom Brokaw.
And the book explains how brave, and how persistent, and how courageous the people were in the generation that won the second world war.
And during the day of September 11 living through the things that I saw and observed.
Immediately, when I saw people helping each other.
I saw the picture of the firefighters putting the flag up at ground zero.
I said these are the children or grandchildren or great-grandchildren of the greatest generation.
They have the same resolve. The same understanding.
When you challenge Americans, there’s no country that stands up stronger and better than the United States of America.
When you try and take something away from us like freedom, my goodness, Americans are going to be one in resisting you.
So, the Islamic terrorists would make a terrible mistake if they confuse our democracy for weakness.
Our democracy means we disagree with each other, but when you come and try and take away from us our freedom.
When you try and come here and kill our people.
We’re one and we’re going to stand up to you and we’re going to prevail.
I’m Rudy Giuliani and I approved this message.”
###
Posted 12.27.07 12:21 PM | Comments (0)
"A Way Out"
New Bill Richardson spot up in Iowa today outlining his plan to withdraw from Iraq.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.27.07 11:54 AM | Comments (0)
Bhutto React
Candidates issued statements this morning about the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister of Pakistan. CNN is reporting that 22 other people were also killed in the suicide attack in Rawalpindi.
President Bush spoke as well from Crawford, Texas. His comments first. A wrap-up of the candidates' statements after the jump.
"The United States strongly condems this cowardly act by murderous extremists," Bush said. "... Those who have committed this crime must be brought to justice."
He added: "We stand with the people of Pakistan in their struggle against the forces of terrorism and extremism."
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Hillary Clinton, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones (exact remarks to follow, these paraphrased comments were reported from an event in Iowa):
"With the assassintation of Benazir Bhutto today, the world once again is reminded of the dangers facing democracy and free elections in Pakistan and elsewhere in areas that are rife with conflict and violence and extremisim and anti-democratic forces at work..... I have known Benazir Bhutto for a dozen years, and I knew her as a leader....as a woman who was ready to take risks…She wrote a moving autobiography that begins with the assassination of her father who was also a leader of Pakistan....I grieve for her family and her two children and I greive forthe people of Pakistan who deserve to have democracy take root in a country that has tremendous potential…..The government has suppressed and undermined the talents of Pakistanis…I hope if there is any opportunity for the people and government of Pakistan to respond to this tragedy appropriately it would be to move more steadfastly and determinately toward democracy....She has given her life in that hope."
Statement from Barack Obama issued by the campaign:
“I am shocked and saddened by the death of Benazir Bhutto in this terrorist atrocity. She was a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people. We join with them in mourning her loss, and stand with them in their quest for democracy and against the terrorists who threaten the common security of the world,” Obama said.
Joe Biden, also in a campaign statement:
“This is a terrible day. My heart goes out to Benazir Bhutto’s family, friends and followers.
“Like her father before her, Benazir Bhutto worked her whole life – and gave her life – to help Pakistan become a democratic, secular and modern Muslim country. She was a woman of extraordinary courage who returned to Pakistan in the face of death threats and even after an assassination attempt the day of her return, she did not flinch. It was a privilege to know her these many years and to call her a friend.
“I am convinced Ms. Bhutto would have won free and fair elections next week. The fact that she was by far Pakistan’s most popular leader underscores the fact that there is a vast, moderate majority in Pakistan that must have a clear voice in the system. Her assassination makes it all the more urgent that Pakistan return to a democratic path.
“This fall, I twice urged President Musharraf to provide better security for Ms. Bhutto and other political leaders – I wrote him before her return and after the first assassination attempt in October. The failure to protect Ms. Bhutto raises a lot of hard questions for the government and security services that must be answered.
“I know that Benazir’s followers will be tempted to lash out in anger and violence. I urge them to remain calm – and not play into the hands of the forces of destruction. I urge Pakistan’s leaders to open a fully accountable and transparent investigation. We must find out who was behind this and bring those responsible to justice. And the United States should offer any assistance necessary, including investigative teams, to get to the bottom of this horror.
“The way to honor Benazir Bhutto is to uphold the values for which she gave her life: democracy, moderation and social justice. I join with the Pakistani people in mourning the loss of a dear friend.”
John McCain, in a statement issued by his Senate office, per NJ Contributing Editor Linda Douglass:
“I was deeply saddened today to learn about the death of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. My deepest condolences go out to the family and supporters of this remarkable woman, an individual who paid the ultimate price for her embrace of moderation and rejection of extremism.
“The death of Benazir Bhutto underscores yet again the grave dangers we face in the world today and particularly in countries like Pakistan, where the forces of moderation are arrayed in a fierce battle against those who embrace violent Islamic extremism.
“Given Pakistan's strategic location, the international terrorist groups that operate from its soil, and its nuclear arsenal, the future of that country has deep implications for the security of the United States and its allies. America must stand on the right side of this ongoing struggle.
“In my numerous visits to Pakistan - to Islamabad, to Peshawar, even to the tribal areas of Waziristan - I have seen first hand the many challenges that face the political leadership there, challenges so graphically portrayed by today's tragedy. There are, in Pakistan, brave individuals who seek to lead their country away from extremism and instability and into the light of a better day. America, I believe, must do all we can to support them.”
Mike Huckabee's remarks, also reported by Douglass:
“I am deeply troubled by the news accounts this morning of Pakistani opposition leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in a suicide attack. This is devastating news for the people of Pakistan, and my prayers go out to them as we follow developments regarding this dire situation.
”The terrible violence surrounding Pakistan’s upcoming election stands in stark contrast to the peaceful transition of power that we embrace in our country through our Constitution. On this sad day, we are reminded that while our democracy has flaws, it stands as a shining beacon of hope for nations and people around the world who seek peace and opportunity through self-government.”
John Edwards in a statement:
“Benazir Bhutto was a brave and historic leader for Pakistan. Her assassination is a sad and solemn event, and our hearts go out to her family and to the Pakistani people. But we will not let this contemptible, cowardly act delay the march of progress in Pakistan for a single second.
“I have seen firsthand in Pakistan, and in meetings with Prime Minister Bhutto and President Musharraf, the instability of the country and the complexity of the challenges they face. At this critical moment, America must convey both strength and principle. We should do everything in our power to help bring the perpetrators of this heinous act to justice and to ensure that Bhutto's movement toward democracy continues.”
Chris Dodd in a campaign statement:
"Today's news from Pakistan is both shocking and saddening. As a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, I have had the opportunity to travel to Pakistan and come to know Former Prime Minister Bhutto very well over the years. I spoke to her personally several weeks ago and have stayed in close contact with her since. She was a respected leader who played an important part in moving Pakistan toward democracy.
"As we recognize the loss of a leader today, we must also recognize the implication of today's tragedy to the security of the region and to that of the United States.
"At this critical time we must do everything in our power to help Pakistan continue the path toward democracy and full elections. Our first priority must be to ensure stability in this critical nuclear state.
Rudy Giuliani, in Fort Lauderdale today, per NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger:
"I begin on a very sad note because of the assassination that occurred in Pakistan today of Ms. Bhutto and others who were killed in what appears to be a terrorist attack.
"It reminds us of the world that we live in, which is a world in which these attacks have taken place now in so many different parts of the world that we can see that this is an effort that involves all of us.
"America, America feels a strong sense of connection I think connection to something like this because of what's happened to us, the terrorist acts that occurred here, the attacks on Americans overseas. The efforts of our military, your military, our military, in Afghanistan and Pakistan, back in late 2001, 2002, were nothing short of some of the most effective military action in our history, in toppling the Taliban, doing a very effective job of pushing back Al Qaeda right after the attacks of Sept. 11.
"Among other things, this reminds us how we have to redouble our efforts in that area of the world, in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and make sure the successes that they brought about, our military brought about, in 2001, 2002, become permanent, and there isn't a slip back into terrorist control into that region."
Statement from Mitt Romney, per his campaign:
"We are still learning the details of today's tragic events in Pakistan, but this is a stark reminder that America must not only stay on high alert, but remain actively engaged across the globe. Pakistan has long been a key part in the war against extremism and radical jihadists. For those who think Iraq is the sole front in the War on Terror, one must look no further than what has happened today. America must show its commitment to stand with all moderate forces across the Islamic world and together face the defining challenge of our generation – the struggle against violent, radical jihadists.
"At this difficult time, our thoughts and prayers go to the family of Benazir Bhutto, and to all the people of Pakistan who are fighting against extremist forces that would commit such heinous acts as the whole world has witnessed today."
Posted 12.27.07 11:16 AM | Comments (0)
December 26, 2007
A Daunting Agenda Ahead
MT. PLEASANT, IA, Dec 26 -- Hillary Clinton began her final push before the Jan. 3 caucuses at an event in southeastern Iowa this afternoon with her husband, daughter and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, by stressing the problems the next president will face the day they are inaugurated.
"That person will go to the Oval office and on the desk in the Oval office will be a stack of problems," she said. "We know that the next president will face a daunting agenda."
It was a theme that emerged in the days before Christmas, as the New York senator, her husband and surrogates like Gen. Wesley Clark and childhood friends sought to combine the change and experience arguments while also showing Clinton's softer side.
Bill Clinton, who was set to split off and stump in several towns on his wife's behalf, introduced her by saying he wouldn't want her in this race if he didn't think she could win and arguing that it was important to vote for Hillary because this was a time of opportunity in the world, but also a time of great uncertainty, with rampant economic inequality at home and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to deal with abroad.
"Being president under the best of circumstances is a challenging job," the former president told an enthusiastic crowd, many of whom had been waiting at least an hour for them to arrive. The senator's plane was late leaving New York due to air traffic congestion.
(NBC/NJ's ATHENA JONES)
The campaign sent out a memo this morning that noted: "America faces a war abroad and a troubled economy at home -- critical moments that demand a President who is tested, ready to lead on Day 1".
Clinton's closing argument here included a new mailer meant to encourage supporters to turn out for her. The text warns: "Just agreeing to support Hillary isn't good enough" and "If just one in three supporters fails to show up a t the caucus, we won't be successful in Iowa....Coming to the caucus is that important!"
The morning memo seemed to present a fear-centered argument for why America needs a president like Hillary Clinton, while the mailer seemed to have an oddly desperate tone.
Add to that a new ad airing in Iowa and New Hampshire that includes the text: "A nation at war. Troubles at home. America at a crossroads. Demands a leader. With a steady hand."
(The Republican National Committee was quick to send out a response to the ad that echoed some of the criticisms Clinton's main rivals have lobbed at her. It read, in part: "America deserves a leader who will deliver straight answers on the critical challenges confronting our nation.")
Just days ago, Clinton was criticizing the Bush administration for what she called a politics of fear. Is she playing the fear card now and if so, how will that play with Iowans?
Sen. Clinton also spoke, as she often does, about her work for the Children's Defense Fund, the speech she gave in Beijing about women's rights, her efforts to provide health care for children and her work with Republicans in the Senate -- using the examples to illustrate the various ways she changed people's lives for the better. And she talked about America needing a "new beginning" when it comes to healthcare, education and other issues.
But the essence of the message today was in stark contrast to the closing argument Barack Obama was making -- or practicing making -- in a speech in Mason City. (The Obama camp says his closing argument speech is set for Thursday.)
In talking about his decision to run, Obama told the northern Iowa crowd: "We were banking on the notion that if we gave the American people a clear alternative, if we talked to them not about their fears but about their hopes, if we talked to them about how we could bring this country together, and start solving problems again if we talked about how we could push back special interests that have come to dominate the agenda in Washington, if we talked about being honest and straight with the American people about how we were going to solve problems so that we weren't avoiding tough questions because we were worried that those answers wouldn't be popular. We felt that we might be able to not just change political parties in the WH but that we might be able to change our politics."
Posted 12.26.07 11:27 PM | Comments (0)
Sometimes A Headache Is Just A Headache
A week after his plane was turned around midair so he could be evaluated at a St. Louis hospital, Rudy Giuliani's campaign released this information about his health status today. What was described at the time as a severe headache or flu-like symptoms is just that, so sayeth Giuliani's doc.
Maybe so, but the whole thing was handled so mysteriously. And still no explanation for the headache -- or what symptoms prompted the emergency return to St. Louis, hardly a standard response to flu-like symptoms. Or a headache.
Here's the statement issued by Giuliani's doctor via the campaign:
"I have been Rudy Giuliani's personal physician for more than seven years. I was informed late Wednesday evening that Mr. Giuliani was suffering from a significant headache and fatigue. These symptoms can be described as possibly "flu-like." As Mr. Giuliani's personal physician, I stayed in contact with the doctors at Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis throughout the course of the evening. Because of the significant headache, it was important to have as much information as possible and err on the side of caution. Mr. Giuliani underwent the following tests at Barnes-Jewish Hospital: CT-MRI of the brain, ultrasound of the carotid arteries, and spinal fluid evaluation. These tests all came back normal. Furthermore, a PSA taken within the past month was negligible or undetectable, and routine laboratory tests were normal. Upon returning to New York City, Mr. Giuliani came to me for an examination and a further test, a transesophageal echocardiogram, which was normal. I confirmed there was no change in his health status. Mr. Giuliani was not prescribed any medication and I recommended that he lighten his schedule only for a few days. It is my medical opinion that Rudy Giuliani is in very good health."
Valentin Fuster, M.D., PH.D.
Professor of Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.26.07 11:18 PM | Comments (0)
"Stakes"
New HRC ad up in Iowa and N.H. tomorrow highlights the problems of the day, from the war and the foreclosure crisis to the swelling national debt. It says there's only one woman who can tackle them all ...
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted 12.26.07 03:51 PM | Comments (1)
Collect 'Em All: A New AFSCME Mailer Slams Obama
Despite a smattering of bad press over their last mail attack on Barack Obama's health care plan, Hillary-backers AFSCME aren't backing down. They're out with a new negative mailer slamming Obama's "Band-Aid solution" and griping that "15 million Americans can't afford to wait for Obama's actions to catch up to his promises."
Like the previous mailer, this one cites a quote from John Edwards (whose team has disavowed the attack.). The eye-catching new addition? A take-a-number machine spitting out a card printed with the number 15,000,000.
"There are 15 million reasons why Barack Obama's health care plan is not up to the job," reads the text.
(NBC/NJ's CARRIE DANN)
Posted 12.26.07 03:30 PM | Comments (6)
Clinton's Iowa Tour Launch Delayed For Weather
The campaign is saying that HRC's flight from New York is delayed due to air traffic congestion ...
Posted 12.26.07 02:53 PM | Comments (0)
Huck Shoots To Kill In Iowa
OSCEOLA, IOWA -- Mike Huckabee, in the midst of a push to show his steely resolve in the face of direct attacks from former frontrunner Mitt Romney, polished his gun and set off into the snowy fields of Iowa for a pheasant hunt.
On a trip rich with metaphorical potential, Huckabee donned a blaze orange vest and ventured out into an icy Iowa countryside, with trusty bird-dog "Dude" and about 15 shivering members of the press corps in tow. It turns out that the governor, who says that he's been a hunter since childhood, is a pretty decent shot – he shot one of the three pheasants knocked down by the hunting party (the other two reportedly met their bird-maker at the hands of Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltsman.)
The imagery of a gun-totin' politico wasn't lost on journalists, who peppered Huckabee with joking prompts for analogies between his feathered victims and his Republican competitors.
"You prove that you can shoot, and that if somebody really messes with you with negative campaign ads, they just need to be prepared," Huckabee said.
On the cathartic satisfaction of going after the birds, he teased: "We will name the pheasants [after] other candidates. It gives us a real incentive."
"These three birds all said that they would not vote for me on caucus night," he joked when he returned with three bird carcasses. "The one that flew away," he added, "well, we saw a Huckabee button on his rear end so we knew not to take him."
The frigid venture wasn't all fun, games, and good-natured allusions to shooting uncooperative Iowans, though. It can't hurt that Huckabee publicly proved his varmint-hunting mettle in the wake of Mitt Romney's fib about being endorsed by the NRA.
"Its not something I had to go and get a primer in," Huckabee said of his lifelong hobby. "It's not out of the ordinary for me."
Gun in hand, the governor also had harsh words for the aggressive tactics of his main rival in Iowa. Negative campaigning, he said, "really lacks credibility. Because it's in an opponent's desperate interest to try to throw last-minute things at you."
"The magician plays the game of keeping your focus over here on this hand while he's doing something over here with the other," he continued, waving his gloved right hand and brandishing the gun in his left. "I think people understand that sleight of hand is not why you elect a president."
(NBC/NJ's CARRIE DANN)
Posted 12.26.07 02:38 PM | Comments (0)
Edwards' Campaign On 'The Final Push'
Full memo from Jonathan Prince, John Edwards' deputy campaign manager, after the jump.
Key elements ...
Prince says the campaign is drawing bigger crowds than rivals and that evidence of a growing interest in JRE can be gauged in an increase in online e-mail signups and small donations.
The theme for Edwards final swing through Iowa will be "America Rising: Fighting for the Middle Class." The tour begins tomorrow; Edwards is campaigning in New Hampshire today.
And then there's this hint that for all the talk of Edwards' momentum, the buzz that his expected caucus goers are the most experienced and therefore more apt to turn out and that labor will show for him, there's still concern JRE won't pull out a win.
Prince: "The results of the Iowa Caucus will kick-off a condensed nomination contest, and we are ready to use the momentum from a strong Iowa finish to propel us in New Hampshire and beyond. We have eight times the number of field staff in the state of New Hampshire than the Edwards campaign had in 2004; we recently added two dozen field staffers in Nevada; and we were the first candidate to run ads in South Carolina – a state Edwards won by 15 points in 2004. Given our support throughout the labor community and our advisors at work in all February 5th states, we will have the infrastructure in place to seize on momentum from strong early place finishes."
And On Call's favorite Freudian typo to date comes in a sentence from Prince about the campaign's expectation that Obama will continue to hammer Edwards. "We also expect Senator Obama to continue his attacks on Senator Edwards. As NBC News, ABC News, CNN, the New York Times, and the Des Moines Register have noted, Obama’s recent attacks on Edwards coincide with Edwards' gaining steam on the trial."
Trial. Trail. You know, whatever.
Read on.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
TO: Friends of the John Edwards for President Campaign
FR: Deputy Campaign Manager Jonathan Prince
DT: 12-26-07
RE: The Final Push
RACE SNAPSHOT
We enter the final week before the Iowa Caucus in a position of strength. Nearly every poll finds Edwards enjoying momentum that places us in a statistical tie with Senators Clinton and Obama for first place. CNN’s Opinion Research poll captured Edwards at 26 percent; Strategic Vision found Edwards at 27 percent. Edwards has been drawing enthusiastic crowds – larger than those our rivals. Last Saturday night in Mason City, Edwards drew 600 people while nearby Obama’s event had roughly 300 attendees. Last Monday in Des Moines: Edwards drew 400 caucus goers while later that afternoon Clinton drew about 100 people. We expected to draw 125 people for our last event before the Christmas break in Coralville – over 300 showed up.
But increased energy around our campaign is not limited to Iowa. In New Hampshire, we have climbed to 18 percent support in Gallup and other polls. Last Thursday in Manchester we drew over 600 people while Obama’s close by crowd was roughly 500. In Nevada, had our best precinct recruitment week ever since we started recruiting precinct captains in the summer. In South Carolina, two recent polls have us jumping 6 percentage points while both of our opponents slide.
On the web, we are seeing a significant increase in e-mail list signups and in small donors. When people visit the website, they're clicking to our issues page more than any other area. Analysis by Complete found that Edwards saw the highest growth among Democrats in amount of time voters spend on their website in November.
THE EDWARDS FRANCHISE
The theme for Edwards’ final swing through Iowa will be: “America Rising: Fighting for the Middle Class.” While powerful interests get every break imaginable in Washington, middle-class families have to work harder than ever just to get by. From December 27-January 3rd, Edwards will discuss his plans to stand up to corporate greed and make sure hard-working middle class families can get ahead. Edwards will hold small roundtable discussions and community meetings, meet with Iowans at local diners, and hold “America Rising” rallies to encourage Iowans to caucus for him and help change America.
Edwards is closing the campaign talking about the kitchen-table issues that matter most to people: jobs, health care, trade, education, and financial security. America Rising is compelling because it relates the challenges and triumphs of Edwards’ own life to those the country faces right now and calls on Iowans, and all Americans, to rise up and use the power they have to bring the change we need. On the stump, Edwards makes the case that in the face of powerful interests holding the country back, America will rise. Edwards came from nothing but because of hard work, determination, and positive vision, he has been able to achieve the American Dream for himself and his family. But now, because of wealthy interests controlling Washington, the American Dream is out of reach for too many families. On January 3rd, Iowans will rise up make the nation what we want it to be – where everybody who works hard can achieve the American dream.
WHY STICK WITH KITCHEN-TABLE POLITICS
Edwards is focused on the middle class because they have been hurt the most over the last 25 years by the politics of greed. He believes if we don't stand up for them now no one will.
The anxiety felt by working class families is genuine and widespread. Gallup recently found that more than three-fourths of Americans say economic conditions are getting worse, the highest reading since 1991. In December’s ABC-Wash