January 04, 2008
"They Said This Day Would Never Come"
DES MOINES -- When Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses tonight by a stunning and unexpected margin, he silenced critics who said he doesn't have the experience to be president. But perhaps more importantly, his victory, bolstered by the overwhelming support of younger voters, signals a potential generational shift in leadership.
"We are one nation, we are one people, and the time for change has come," Obama said tonight before a raucous crowd at HyVee Hall.
In addition to younger voters, Obama won women and independents, the former being, of course, a critical constituency for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, Democrats turned out in droves tonight; new registrations were sky high, and the party saw 239,000 vote, twice the number who caucused in total in 2004. Not insignificantly, an African American candidate won the hearts of voters in a state that is 95% white, according to 2006 Census data.
The technical elements of Obama's win were staggering, but it was his personal narrative that dominated coverage of the caucuses tonight -- and will carry him into New Hampshire and South Carolina.
This self-professed "skinny guy with a funny name" convinced Iowans that a relative political neophyte could alter the tone of politics today by doing just that throughout the contest. Hope over fear, he said tonight. Unity over division.
"They said this day would never come," Obama said, his wife and daughters standing nearby. "They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided. ...You have done what the cynics said we couldn't do."
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Obama's message of hope resonated more intensely with voters than Clinton's promise of good judgment and steady leadership. They didn't buy her plea that she, too, could provide a "new beginning" for America.
The pairing of Obama's win with Mike Huckabee's triumph over Mitt Romney are in the most exact sense a repudiation of President Bush, the Iraq war and political gridlock plaguing Washington. Voters can take a chance on change when the vessels for that change haven't any firm ties to the problems plaguing the nation.
But all is far from over. The contest heads next to New Hampshire, where Clinton has the Democratic establishment behind her. The state fell for her husband in 1992, giving him a critical second place finish and making him the "Comeback Kid." Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead there in recent polls, though that will likely tighten or evaporate with Obama's Iowa win.
Huckabee, meanwhile, faces the southerner's challenge. New Hampshire voters, crusty, with a libertarian bent, haven't taken to many candidates who hail from south of the Mason Dixon line. Ask John Edwards, who finished fourth there in 2004.
Clinton, for her part, is going to have to effectively reshape her message in the next five days. After a disappointing third place finish in Iowa, a loss in New Hampshire might be insurmountable for her -- just as Edwards' second-place finish in Iowa this evening leaves him few, if any, opportunities for rebirth.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted at 01:31 AM
Comments
Such lofty rhetoric. I seem to recall there are 49 other states that have yet to hold their primaries....
Additionally, historical precedent doesn't work in Obama's favor. Just because he won Iowa is no guarantee he wins the nomination. Only four Iowa winners have won their parties' nomination--and none went on to become president. The last sitting senator elected to the White House was John Kennedy.
Edwards' second-place finish in Iowa this evening leaves him few, if any, opportunities for rebirth.
Really? He came in second against two candidates with vastly superior resources and more than held his own. I guess that doesn't count for anything in the final analysis.
corinne | 01.04.08 08:39 AM
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