February 27, 2008
Go Figures
A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out last night shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 48-42% among Dem primary voters, with 5% undecided. Obama's margins appear to be based on large leads among both men and self-described Inds. Obama and Clinton are tied 46-46% among self-described Dems, while Obama leads by 21% among Inds. They are also nearly tied among women (she is up 1%), while he holds a double-digit lead among men.
The survey shows Obama leads 55-37% among voters who have already cast votes in a 2008 Dem primary or caucus. Obama, however, only leads Clinton 51-49% in total popular vote (including MI and FL), meaning either more people have moved into his camp since they cast ballots or voters cannot remember for whom they actually voted.
What's more, given Obama's 6% lead in the full primary poll but his 18% lead in this already-voted subsample, one can extrapolate Obama's numbers are far weaker in the 14 states which have not yet held a Dem primary or caucus. Nevertheless, this anecdotal evidence should not trouble the Obama camp given the more their candidate campaigns in a state, the better he fares.
Also, some good news for the Clinton camp -- more than half of Dem primary voters believe delegates from MI and FL should be allowed to vote at the convention. The poll did not, however, specify how such delegates would or ask how they should be allocated.
On the GOP side, 24% of primary voters say they are unhappy John McCain is their Nom, a figure which jumps to 26% among self-described conservatives and 28% among evangelical/born-again Christians. These groups likely overlap with the 23% of primary voters, 26% of conservatives and 37% of evangelicals who say McCain is not a true conservative. Interestingly enough, only 6%, 6% and 7% of these groups, respectively, say McCain is not a true GOPer.
Finally, 70% of RVs say the U.S. is ready to elect an African-American man president, and 61% say the U.S. is ready to elect a woman president. But surprisingly, more men than women believe the U.S. is ready to elect a woman. The poll shows comparable numbers of Dems are ready for both a woman and African-American man president, while Inds and GOPers appear far more ready for the latter. Less than half of GOPers and six in ten Inds say the U.S. is ready to elect a woman, while 64% of GOPers and more than seven in 10 Inds say the U.S. is ready to elect an African-American man.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
Posted at 02:36 PM
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