March 27, 2008
This Bloomberg Business And The Misery Ticket
With an afternoon of meetings behind me, I have a few thoughts about Mike Bloomberg's appearance with Barack Obama today in NYC and the post photo-op speculation that they'd make a fine pair.
Won't happen.
Reason 1: Obama might have a Jewish problem (might not, still unclear), but his veep decision will have to remedy what's shaping up to be a potentially bigger issue for him -- white, male, rural voters. And Bloomberg, though he satisfies the first characteristic, doesn't have that rural, moderate cred. Jewish, single, wine-swilling, billionaire. Not exactly Joe Six Pack's political besheret.
Reason 2: Obama does indeed have a foreign policy experience deficit, and with an Iraq pullout imminent with either one of the Dems in the WH, he's going to need someone on board to help shape that effort. And, more importantly in the short-term, he has to enlist a veep who can credibly argue on the trail that Obama has the disposition and thoughtfulness and depth to weigh difficult decisions and to learn quickly on the job. Meanwhile, John McCain's perceived strength on foreign policy and his undeniable vet cred requires that someone on the Dem side offer a foil. And we know Obama won't match up on his own.
Reason 3: Geography. This election is going to be an exercise in keeping or flipping a few critical states: OH, PA, NC, NH, FL and MI. Sure, geography hasn't been at the top of any nom's list of requirements in picking a running mate in recent years (though it would've been nice indeed for John Kerry if John Edwards had carried his home state). This year, though, it could count.
Reason 4: And finally, I think the longer this Dem fight continues, the more likely it is that Obama has no choice but to run with Hillary Clinton. Yes, I know this potentially violates my Reasons 2 and 3. And, yes, I know they're scratching each other's eyes out. I also know that she's provided the GOP with their talking points -- Obama isn't ready to be commander in chief or a steward of the economy. But, how are the dissatisfied masses of her supporters, after a possible floor fight, going to be placated? Ok, Obama/Clinton is no longer looking like The Dream Ticket -- even the folks at the Kodak Theatre debate might, these days, cringe at the suggestion. Call it The Misery Ticket. And let's get on with it.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted at 06:03 PM
Comments
So, Jennifer, here you go again. YOU think Obama has a foreign policy deficit, that's your opinion, but then you presume to speak for us, as in "WE know Obama won't match up on his own". Well, speak for yourself, but never speak for "we", which includes me.
Second, Obama is not going to select a Republican for VP - Bloomberg or otherwise.
Third, Clinton brings nothing but baggage, and no credible foreign policy experience either as far as I'm concerned, and worrying about placating the dissatisfied masses of her supporters would pale next to the loss of credibility that Obama would suffer by putting the very symbol of all he and supporters like myself are trying to be done with.
Linda Tinjum | 03.27.08 08:12 PM
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The VP candidate that meets all of these criteria is Jim Webb (D-VA)
1. Beer drinking, plain talking, gun toting, hunting,legitimate war hero, whose son served in Iraq.
2. Former Secretary of the Navy under Regan, war hero. Ran on anti-war platform.
3. He'll help in all the states you mention, and could flip Virginia, where he's very popular.
4. This is a joke, right?
davidconnell | 03.27.08 09:17 PM
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If Hillary Clinton were elected VP, Dick Cheney's expansion of the power of that office would look like shyness.
Marla Erwin | 03.27.08 09:17 PM
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Seconding davidconnell -- Jim Webb would be an excellent pick, and his wife may help draw the Asian-American vote. But would that be too much diversity for rural white males?
Marla Erwin | 03.27.08 09:21 PM
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Seconding davidconnell -- Jim Webb would be an excellent pick, and his wife may help draw the Asian-American vote. But would that be too much diversity for rural white males?
There's also Bill Richardson, who might help by adding an executive-branch candidate (Governor rather than Senator) with impeccable foreign policy credentials.
Marla Erwin | 03.27.08 09:23 PM
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I disagree on FP cred. Most presidents have had no FP cred. and a few more gaffes like last week and McCain will look just the same. They've set the bar so low for Obama on foreign policy he'll look like a genius compared to "Sunni=Shia" McCain, or "I can't name the general." Bush.
Clinton as Veep is not gonna happen. She's not going to settle. She completely steps on his unity message, and she delivers nothing (Does anyone really believe Obama wouldn't win NY, NJ and CT?). That said he does have to win over her constituency (which to be frank would doubtless be easier than the media have made it out to be).
Regardless, there are many women who feel any candidate who would dare run against Clinton is a misogynist. He might do well to placate the women's vote with a female VP. Certainly not Geraldine Ferraro. My guess: Sen. Claire McCaskill (moderate, female, swing state), possibly Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (again moderate, female, not sure she swings KS though), or Gov. Janet Napolitano (moderate, female, puts McCain's home state in play, although he'd likely still win it). If you've gotta peg a white guy then Sen. Webb would be an excellent choice.
If Obama really has a Jewish problem, which I have certainly seen no actual evidence of, Russ Feingold could be chosen, but he's a probably too liberal for the middle America.
My money's on one of the women, or Webb.
Seth | 03.28.08 10:04 AM
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Perhaps instead of Clinton herself, a white male with foreign policy cred who is a well known Clintonista would suffice? Which is long hand for Wes Clark.
comstock load | 03.28.08 01:17 PM
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@Comstock load: would make sense. Also Bob Casey Jr. (who just endorsed in PA), a Pro-Life Democrat really drives home the "big tent" message, and he'd deliver PA. I can't see the more radical Pro-Choice Dems. Defecting either.
Seth | 03.28.08 01:29 PM
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HOG WASH-jennifer:
Voters should be aware!!!
While the Clinton campaign steps up its efforts to ratify the sham elections in Michigan and Florida -- their lone lifeline in a campaign they have otherwise thoroughly lost on the merits -- they seek to disenfranchise actual voters in a real contest -- that in Texas.
On Wednesday:
Garry Mauro, Clinton's state campaign chairman, said Wednesday he is satisfied that the process is working well. Mauro said Clinton is planning no challenge to the process.
Birnberg said he is not expecting many challenges to convention delegates because too many delegates would have to be rejected to change the mix for either Obama or Clinton.
"If you're talking about Senate District 13, which has 4,000 delegates, you cannot imagine how many credential disputes you'd have to have to change" the outcome, he said. "That probably takes 1,000 successful challenges mathematically."
Then on Thursday:
Hillary Rodham Clinton's Texas campaign is challenging the seating of delegates from numerous precincts for Saturday’s Democratic county conventions, particularly in Barack Obama's strongholds.
State Senate District 23, which includes much of southern Dallas County, was a central target of the Clinton campaign.
Just before Wednesday’s deadline to file complaints before the county convention credentials committee, Clinton campaign officials delivered a large packet of challenges.
"There are numerous challenges," said Dallas County District Clerk Gary Fitzsimmons, who is temporary chairman of the District 23 credentials committee. The district went solidly for Mr. Obama in the primary, and there’s a question over whether Mrs. Clinton will reach the 15 percent threshold needed to receive delegates.
The committee meets Thursday night to deal with minor challenges. The rest will be handled on Saturday, the day of the county conventions.
On a conference call Wednesday, Clinton campaign officials said they would not try to influence the county conventions with mass challenges before the credentials committee [...]
"Apparently the promise that the Clinton campaign made less than 24 hours ago not to challenge the seating of delegates at Saturday's district conventions was just another made-up story," [Obama spokesperson Josh] Earnest said. "The Clinton campaign's politically-motivated outrage over disenfranchising voters apparently doesn't extend to the 1.1 million Texans who participated in the precinct conventions earlier this month."
Of course it doesn't. Clinton originally agreed to the sanctions against Michigan and Florida. Yet now, even after the states have admitted they don't have the money, time, or political will to get new sanctioned contests, the Clinton campaign clings to the states in an effort to spread enough uncertainty to keep her failed campaign alive.
Note that in Texas, SD-23 in Dallas is little different than SD-13 in Houston -- Clinton got only about 27 percent of the vote, and only about 18 percent in the caucus. She's in danger of failing to reach viability there and in Houston's SD-13, and those are huge districts. Note also that the district, which the Clinton campaign is trying to disenfranchise, is essentially half African American, half Latino. But every delegate counts, and SD-23 has six of them. They'll fight for every single one of them no matter how many people and communities they disenfranchise.
There are also reports that several south Texas counties, Clinton territory, are refusing to publish the location of the conventions. In the old day, no one showed up to these things, delegate slates were just filled in without hassle by some local party honcho. These people would like nothing else than to fill in a full slate of Clinton delegates without the hassles of "democracy" and all. So between credential challenges and other subterfuge designed to depress Obama's performance and cast the caucus results in doubt, we'll see that once again, Camp Clinton will do and say anything in its mad pursuit of power.
Bink1 | 03.28.08 04:37 PM
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