May 03, 2008
Can Youx Believe It?
In a race GOPers will dismiss because of a poor candidate and one Dems will hail as their entry into the Southern battlefield, state Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) defeated '96 SEN nominee Woody Jenkins (R) to fill Rep. Richard Baker's (R-LA 06) term. With 99% of the precincts reporting, according to the LA Sec/State's office, Cazayoux took 49% to Jenkins' 46%.
A surprising factor in the race for the Baton Rouge-area CD turned out to be conservative/GOPer-turned-indie Ashley Casey, who took 3.7K votes. If all of her votes would've gone to Jenkins, he would've won the contest. (TIM SAHD)
Despite being considered a GOP CD - Pres. Bush took an average of 56% in his two previous runs there - Cazayoux entered voting today as the frontrunner. Attacks on Jenkins' alleged past business dealings with David Duke - charges Jenkins denies - and the very conservative record he compiled while in the state Senate, made him an easy target for Dems.
Cazayoux, meanwhile, appeared to be a very good fit for the conservative CD. His stance on abortion, guns and gay marriage all went against traditional Dem positions. And Dems were also encouraged by the high African-American pop. in the CD - 33%. And that number is considered a low number, since Hurricane Katrina evacuees from New Orleans certainly bumped that number higher. Not too many GOPers are successful in CDs with such a high black pop.
With these challenges, the National Republican Congressional Cmte knew they had a problem in the CD, but didn't have an answer until it began running an ad 4/22 linking Cazayoux to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Barack Obama. Immediately, other outside groups, like the Club for Growth and Freedom's Watch, chimed in and aired similar ads. In total, the NRCC spent 439K in the race, while the DCCC spent $1.2M to capture the seat.
Cazayoux was put on the defensive. The ad moved the attention of the race from Jenkins to Cazayoux, who for the first time was being defined as a Dem, and it took him off his "conservative" message. But in the end, it wasn't enough to catapult the much-maligned Jenkins.
Dems will trumpet the victory as a sign that they'll compete in the South, and will move on to MS-01, where a 5/13 special election will determine who fills the remainder of ex-Rep./now Sen. Roger Wicker's (R) seat. Prentiss Co. Chancery Clerk Travis Childers (D) can be considered the frontrunner, even though GOPers and GOP-friendly orgs are also linking him to Obama.
GOPers will blame their second special election loss this cycle to a poor candidate, just as it did in IL-14. But they'll have no excuse for a MS-01 loss. The CD is even more GOP than LA-06, and their candidate, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R), is competent.
Even still, this is the second embarrassing loss for the party, and will likely set off another wave of anxiety within the GOP ranks.
Elsewhere in LA, in the race to replace ex-Rep./now-Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), state Sen. Steve Scalise (R) defeated Univ. of New Orleans prof. Gilda Reed (D), 75-23% to win the solid GOP LA-01.
With these two wins, the current makeup of the House is 235 Dems, 199 GOPers and 1 vacancy in MS-01.
(TIM SAHD)
Posted at 11:10 PM
Comments
Well, so much for the GOP's crazy idea that they could defeat Cazayoux by bringing Obama's name into the race.
If this is any example of how that Republican strategy will work in November, looks like we can get ready to welcome to President Obama to the White House.
Larry | 05.04.08 12:06 AM
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Obama or Clinton?
If either win I am prepared for another High Misery Index as was experienced under Jimmy Carter however I don't have children to feed, a car to fuel and high property tax to pay so my suffering won't be as bad as most Americans.
People who believe we are living in a 'bad economy' today are either too young to remember the late 1970's or have forgotten through too much drug use.
Want a High Misery Index? vote Democrat.
The Clinton years were an illusion created by a fake tech bubble, as soon as 1999 rolled around the pink slips began in droves however the media never pounded this point.
I have no doubt that within the next four years most Americans will look back at the ecomonic prosperity of the Bush years with tremedous nostalgia for how good things really were and at their current position of how bad things can get.
syn | 05.04.08 07:10 AM
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Many were calling this as a closer than expected election in part because of the intense unpopularity of the Bush administration in much of Louisiana and the significantly higher black population in and around Baton Rouge. It was never smart to run the anti-Obama ads there. Let's see what happens elsewhere before we generalize about their efficacy.
Mosadi | 05.04.08 09:45 AM
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- 3.5 X Gas price increas in past 7 years
- Voting Machines purchased with our tax dollars without access to source code
- Wounded, Killed & 4 million displaced in Iraq
- Sub-standard treatment of our American Vets
- Housing crisis
- Exponential healthcare increases
- Increased taxes for working public, decreased taxes for corporations
- A 35% tax increas for all Americans given the devaluation of to the dollar as compared to other countries
- A recession
- Torture
- Lies about war
- Osama bin Laden still on the run
- No bid contracts and a Trillion dollar war
- Katrina Response, good job Brownie
- just off the top of my head, there are so many more...
Give me a break. I lived through Carter and it does not compare to the hell the American people are living. The republican strategy needs to be better than linking opposition to a candidate that offers hope.
John
John | 05.04.08 12:46 PM
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- 3.5 X Gas price increas in past 7 years
- Voting Machines purchased with our tax dollars without access to source code
- Wounded, Killed & 4 million displaced in Iraq
- Sub-standard treatment of our American Vets
- Housing crisis
- Exponential healthcare increases
- Increased taxes for working public, decreased taxes for corporations
- A 35% tax increase for all Americans given the devaluation of to the dollar as compared to other countries
- A recession
- Torture
- Lies about war
- Osama bin Laden still on the run
- No bid contracts and a Trillion dollar war
- Katrina Response, good job Brownie
- just off the top of my head, there are so many more...
Give me a break. I lived through Carter and it does not compare to the hell the American people are living. The republican strategy needs to be better than linking opposition to a candidate that offers hope.
John
John | 05.04.08 12:47 PM
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Personally, I am going to invest in gas cans. During the Carter era you couldn't find them on the shelves. Its one thing to have to dig deeper to pay for gas, it was another not to be able to even get it. I remember one Sunday nite driving from St. Louis to Arkansas. My car was one gallon short of being able to make it, so I always had to buy gas along the way. Because it was Sunday and gas stations had to be closed on Sundays (this was in addition to the odd/even number license plate days), the only way I could make it was to carry a spare can of gas in my car. I would drive about fifty miles South and pull over and empty the can all the while hoping nobody hit me in the rear while carrying the spare gas. Need gas on Sunday, try the black market. I forgot once to buy the extra gas on Saturday and a guy sold me a gallon for five bucks (gas was about fifty cents then). Oh yeah, those were the days. The libs are being exposed for being the real cause of high gas prices because they won't let us drill here at home. I can't wait.
flyover | 05.04.08 01:56 PM
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"The Clinton years were an illusion created by a fake tech bubble, as soon as 1999 rolled around the pink slips began in droves however the media never pounded this point.
I have no doubt that within the next four years most Americans will look back at the ecomonic prosperity of the Bush years with tremedous nostalgia for how good things really were and at their current position of how bad things can get."
You've got to be kidding!!
The "fake tech bubble" gave us eight years of prosperity after the Bush Sr recession and before the Bush Jr recessions. When Bush Sr left office the unemployment rate was 7.4%. When Clinton's term ended the "drove of pink slips" resulted in an unemployment rate of 3.9. Now we're back to 5% unemployment and gone from a huge surplus and back to a huge Bush deficit.
Paul | 05.04.08 07:55 PM
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Talk to the suckers who lost their retirement plans to stocks like wastebaskets.com while inside IPO flippers were happy to pay capital gains on their big run-ups resulting in a big surplus because the GOP Congress wouldn't let Billy spend it. Where were the cops?
flyover | 05.04.08 10:16 PM
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I understand gay men and women turned out in record numbers throughout the Baton Rogue area. Still, Jenkins could not pull it out.
Royal King | 05.05.08 11:16 AM
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