May 14, 2008
Senators Still On The (D) Fence
As Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton cavorted with their colleagues on the Senate floor yesterday, an air of uncertainty loomed. When will their uncommitted colleagues cast their lot with the other superdelegates, ending this bitter primary once and for all?
Of the nearly 30 superdelegates who have endorsed Obama in the week since his game-changing victory in NC, only one (Daniel Akaka of HI) is a senator. In fact, more than one-third of Dem senators (17, by this count) continue to sit on the fence.
Choosing one colleague over the other could certainly cause awkward moments at the water cooler. But what, if any, are the specific reasons for their reluctance? Let's examine some possibilities.
Harry Reid (NV), as the leading Senate Dem, has naturally stayed neutral (although sources privately suspect he leans toward Clinton). Carl Levin (MI), who's been at the forefront of resolving his state's contentious delegate dispute, has also kept his preferences hidden for the sake of party unity.
But some senators are under a lot of pressure to focus on their own well-being. For instance, three freshman Dems who won their conservative states with bare majorities -- Ken Salazar (CO) with 51%, Jon Tester (MT) with 49%, and Jim Webb (VA) with a mere 7,231 votes -- probably don't want to disrupt the delicate balance of their support by taking sides in a heated race. (Webb is also mentioned as a possible VP pick by either candidate).
Mary Landrieu (LA), who's facing a tough reelection battle this Nov., may be in a similar bind. Analyst Elliott Stonecipher suspects Landrieu might be hesitant to endorse Clinton because it could alienate some of her black constituents, who make up more than 30% of LA’s population and who favored Obama 4-1 in that state's primary. Stonecipher says it would be “a slap in the face of African-American voters” if the superdelegates were to give Clinton the nod.
A similar dynamic is confronting Ben Cardin (MD), whose 30%-black constituency gave Obama 84% of its support. On top of that, Cardin defeated ex-NAACP Pres. Kweisi Mfume, one of the country's most visible black leaders, and another African American candidate in the '06 Dem primary. (Cardin went on to fight a heated and racially charged general election battle against then-LG Michael Steele (R)). With all that in mind, a Clinton endorsement at this point could be a liability for Cardin among African Americans.
Of all the undeclared senators, those who've attracted the most scrutiny are from states that went decisively for Clinton: Jack Reed of RI (18-pt margin), Frank Lautenberg of NJ (10 pts), Sherrod Brown of OH (9 pts). Perhaps Lautenberg and Brown, like their peers in LA and MD, are hesitant to endorse Clinton because of their sizable black constituencies (15% in NJ, 12% in OH). But RI is just 6% African-American. And Reed is the only RI superdelegate who hasn't endorsed yet (the rest support Clinton, 8-2).
Furthermore, Reed and Clinton are close colleagues; with the exception of Tom Carper (DE), Reed is the only undeclared senator who shares more than one cmte with Clinton. So with all these reasons to endorse, why hasn't he?
Perhaps it's because Reed, a West Point grad and member of the Armed Services Cmte, is said to be in the running for Defense sec. under either Dem. So if Reed endorses Clinton, he might hurt his chances with a Pres. Obama. (Similarly, another undeclared colleague, Joe Biden of DE, is on the short list for sec/state, or even VP).
Ron Wyden (OR) and Max Baucus (MT) are from states that have yet to vote, so perhaps they're waiting for their constituents to decide for them. But even after the OR primary, don't expect an endorsement from Wyden. He, in a rare case of candor among the uncommitted, says he doesn't want to risk politicizing what he calls "the first bipartisan universal coverage health bill in the history of the Senate."
With Clinton's 67-26% rout in WV last night, Robert Byrd's constituents are apparently begging him to endorse. But as a former member of the KKK, Byrd may want to avoid the possible media attention of not backing the first African-American near-nominee. Even though WV's black population is just 3%, and its white population (based on exit polling) seems to be averse to black candidates, perhaps the 9-term senator will just wait for the other 200 uncommitted superdelegates to decide the nod.
That leaves Tom Harkin (IA) and Herb Kohl (WI), whose states voted decisively for Obama. (WI's Russ Feingold also declares neutrality, even though he admits to have voted for Obama.)
Harkin's wife, Ruth, has been an outspoken Clinton supporter, but the candidate's bashing of the caucus system seems to weigh heavier with Tom. As far as Kohl, he's the only undecided senator who appears to have no discernible preference. Perhaps he simply fits the profile described by Maj. Whip/Obama backer Dick Durbin (IL): "They want to avoid hard votes. They want to be spared controversy. Most of them are looking for certainty, for inevitability, before they commit" (CHRIS BODENNER).
Posted at 10:19 AM
Comments
All very interesting. I want these people to step up and cast their votes. I think it is cowardly if you know who you support and don't say.
Are they still afraid of the Clintons?
Are they more worried about their political futures than that of the party?
I would have more respect for them if they spoke their minds. Too late is too late.
Susan | 05.14.08 09:29 PM
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Clinton takes Indiana by a ‘razor’ and Obama wins North Carolina by a huge margin. Nevertheless, Kentucky, Montana and West Virginia are still to come.
The Democratic race for nomination is still very much alive – and most likely to be decided by superdelegates
If you’re tired of waiting around for those super delegates to make a decision already, go to LobbyDelegates.com and push them to support Clinton or Obama
If you haven't done so yet, please write a message to each of your state's superdelegates at http://www.lobbydelegates.com
Obama Supporters:
Sending a note to current Obama supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Clinton supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Obama, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Obama. It's that easy...
Clinton Supporters too …. !
It takes a moment, but what's a few minutes now worth to get Clinton in office?! Those are really worth !
Sending a note to current Clinton supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Obama supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Clinton, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Clinton. It's that easy...
feeba | 05.15.08 06:37 AM
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