May 22, 2008
They Love Me Not ... Yet
There's trouble for Barack Obama in a new Quinnipiac University poll that shows the likely Dem nom trailing GOPer John McCain in FL and OH but with a small edge in PA. Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, shows better against McCain in these critical battleground states.
Here are the numbers:
FL: Clinton tops McCain 48% - 41%; McCain leads Obama 45% - 41%;
OH: Clinton beats McCain 48% - 41%; McCain tops Obama 44% - 40%;
PA: Clinton tops McCain 50% - 37%; Obama leads McCain 46% - 40%.
One irrefutable cause of Obama's woes: women.
In FL, Clinton leads McCain 54% - 37% among women, while women split in an Obama/McCain match-up, 43% - 42% for the IL senator.
In OH, Clinton leads McCain 53% - 37% among women, while they tip more narrowly to Obama over McCain, 42% - 40%.
In PA, Obama does marginally better with women, likely accounting for his lead over McCain in the statewide numbers. After all, 58% of the state's Dem primary voters were women. Clinton bests McCain 57% - 31% with women. Obama also tops McCain, 49% - 37% with women.
So, what's a Team Obama, with almost every visible public spokesperson of the male variety, to do? Well, they've started by hiring veteran political journalist Linda Douglass, a National Journal contributing editor, as a senior strategist and senior campaign spokeswoman, as the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder reported first yesterday. With Samantha Power gone, the campaign's only top female message pushers are Michelle Obama and Susan Rice, a former assistant secretary of state for African affairs. Seems likely then that a woman -- see KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius -- will wind up, if not on the Dem ticket, making the list of finalists.
The Quinnipiac numbers indicate that Obama clearly needs to make a visible outreach to women voters. Hiring a new female advisor, even one as talented, smart, well-spoken, poised and all-around wonderful as Douglass, may be a good start, but he’ll obviously need to provide other incentives to draw more women voters into the fold.
(JENNIFER SKALKA)
Posted at 10:42 AM
Comments
"One irrefutable cause of Obama's woes: women."
No kidding? When he's running against a woman? Shocking.
Once the nomination is settled, the % of women willing to vote for Obama over McCain will grow. Looking at it now is a waste of time, though it does guarantee full employment I guess.
NaR | 05.22.08 11:38 AM
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I can't imagine McCain will be able to keep these women in his camp. A McCain presidency able to appoint three justices and remake the court as a right wing monster for a generation would be the worst thing to happen to women since people started believing Mary Magdalene was a prostitute.
NHCt | 05.22.08 11:47 AM
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I've sent Jen 2 different major polls in the last 48 hours showing Barack Obama making huge inroads into voter populations across the board.
And yet she STILL flaunts an imaginary horserace against someone who has been mathematically eliminated from the contest.
It is time to -- YET AGAIN -- call into question Jennifer Skalka's journalistic ethics.
Thanks Jen. Thanks a lot.
I love helping you do your job. Pathetic.
The polls:
Key Clinton Constituencies Moving Toward Obama
Gallup (May 16-18)
Obama is now tied with Hillary among whites (47%-47%); leads her among women (49%-46%); edges her among Dems with a high school graduate or less (46%-47%); and leads her among Hispanics (51%-44%).
Those groups, obviously, have been the bedrock of Hillary's candidacy. The only major demographic group that Hillary gets 51% or more of are women aged 50 and older.
Overall Dems/Lean-Dems:
Obama 55%
Hillary 39%
Zogby (May 15-18):
Obama does well among his Democratic base, winning 79% support – an indication that the party faithful may be coming together behind his campaign as a bruising nomination campaign nears the end. He also does well among non-aligned voters, as independents favor him over McCain by a 48% to 32% margin.
[[[yes, that's a 16-point spread for Obama over McCain on Indies... huge...]]]
Obama leads in the East, the West, and in the South, while the two are essentially tied in the central part of the country, including the Midwest and the Great Lakes region, the poll shows. He leads among all voters under age 65 – including by huge percentages among those voters under age 30 - but trails McCain among those older voters by a 45% to 34% margin. Interestingly, Obama holds a 13-point edge among those voters age 50 to 64.
The survey hints that Libertarian Bob Barr could do some serious damage to McCain by stealing support among the very conservative and libertarian voters. Barr wins 10% support among those self-described “very conservative” voters, and wins 22% among philosophical (not necessarily “capital L”) libertarians. As McCain continues to angle for moderate support on the campaign trail, Barr could create havoc for him among McCain’s political base.
(Sources for these two polls are at Gallup and Zogby websites)
Ethan | 05.22.08 12:06 PM
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"Obama clearly needs to make a visible outreach to women voters." He sure does, Sweetie.
You mean the same Obama who said he thought he could get Hillary's voters but wasn't sure she could get his?
And since we're having fun with polls, Qunnipac Poll shows that Clinton beats McCain in FL, Ohio and PA, while Obama loses in FL and Ohio. Clinton has higher favorables than Obama in FL. North Carolina (SUSA): McCain 51% - Obama 43%, Clinton 49% - McCain 43%.
It's the map, stupid.
corinne | 05.22.08 12:51 PM
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I don't know, by saying women will come around is like saying African Americans would come if Obama was not the nominee, even if it was done fairly. While upset voters usually do come around in a normal WGA vs WGB election (WG=white guy), this is not a normal election by any means; women and African Americans are taking this personally. Plus, the fact that we have a group called "Reagan Democrats" is proof that Democrats don't always come around. I think Obama's only hope is either: 1) a female VP, or 2) he hires buses to get every African American who's eligible out to vote in November. Michelle O may be right when she said last year that African Americans would give her husband a victory.
sarah | 05.22.08 05:33 PM
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Oicking any other woman than Hillary for VP would be seen by her supporters as a huge slap and they won't be fooled by it.
How come now th epress makes something out of the faact that the Obama campaign team has NO WOMEN IN IT????
That tells you something about him.
debcoop | 05.22.08 05:47 PM
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Oicking any other woman than Hillary for VP would be seen by her supporters as a huge slap and they won't be fooled by it.
How come now th epress makes something out of the faact that the Obama campaign team has NO WOMEN IN IT????
That tells you something about him.
debcoop | 05.22.08 05:55 PM
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Clearly (as can easily be seen by strong Senate races in some of theses states) this election's focus will be on the Colorados, Nevadas, New Mexicos, Iowas and Virginias of the country. Ohio and Florida will be irrelevant if Obama can make gains elsewhere instead. Kerry parked himself in Ohio and Gore in Florida and neither came through, time to move on to more fertile ground.
Tim | 05.22.08 07:02 PM
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Maybe they can continue by hiring Jennifer Skalna. I think they have worked closely together for the Obama campaign. Obama has no serious women working for his campaign until Douglass, but he has quite a few working for him surreptitiously through the media. I have always liked Linda Douglass, but it is appalling that the National Journal KNEW she worked as an advisor for debate prep for Obama in 2007, then hired her without revealing this. I have no problem with people moving from the media to politics, and vice versa, but it is useful knowing their biases. When Karl Rove writes a column in Newsweek, I know what his agenda might be. When Linda Douglass wrote for National Journal, I interpreted her reporting, mistakenly, as objective. Now looking back on it, I can see lots of pro-Obama pieces by many on the staff of National Journal.
Will the National Journal indicate whether any other staff have formally or informally advised any campaigns? Has Skalna worked with Douglass on the Obama campaign?
Lynda | 05.23.08 12:45 PM
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Following on the previous poster, picking any woman or man other than Hillary Clinton is a slap in the face to the 49.5% of voters that supported Hillary Clinton. It's Clinton for VP or I'm sitting this election out.
John | 05.23.08 12:49 PM
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Obama camp once again trying to use psychology on Everyone by using polls. There are Far TOO MANY polls....they mean Nothing. Bush was behind in the polls in 2000 and 2004 and he won Both. Obama has Lost Too many democrats with his "tell them what they want to hear" campaigning. The majority of the women will Not turn to Obama...Not going to happen! 50% of the country does NOT Trust Obama and that is Not going to change either. If Obama is the nominee, McCain will win the election in November.
rwethereyet | 05.26.08 03:17 PM
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Obama camp once again trying to use psychology on Everyone by using polls. There are Far TOO MANY polls....they mean Nothing. Bush was behind in the polls in 2000 and 2004 and he won Both. Obama has Lost Too many democrats with his "tell them what they want to hear" campaigning. The majority of the women will Not turn to Obama...Not going to happen! 50% of the country does NOT Trust Obama and that is Not going to change either. If Obama is the nominee, McCain will win the election in November.
rwethereyet | 05.26.08 03:17 PM
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