August 07, 2008
Battle For The Electoral College: Back To The Future
After reaching 319 EVs in last week's 7/31 update, Barack Obama now has 292 EVs; conversely, John McCain's total has jumped from 207 to 234 EVs. Obama's 292-234 EV lead, although roughly half his margin one week ago, is identical to his Electoral College lead in The Hotline's 7/25 estimation. Since 7/25, FL and its 27 EVs have changed from lean McCain to lean Obama on 7/31, and now -- with a FL Chamber of Commerce poll conducted by GOP-pollster Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Assoc. -- to solid McCain.
In addition to the FL poll, a new survey in NC confirmed it as lean McCain, while new polls in KY and OK confirmed both states as solid McCain. Meanwhile, a new Dem poll moved AK from solid McCain to lean McCain, and the first ID poll moved it out of the Bush/Bush projection to solid McCain.
What's more, five new polls in solid Obama states confirmed previous findings. Obama increased his leads in the regular NY polls conducted by Quinnipiac Univ. and Siena College; he also doubled his margin in the WA Elway Poll and maintained his solid advantage in WI. Obama's 23% lead in Suffolk Univ.'s MA poll on 6/10, however, shriveled to a 9% margin in this week's release.
As always, the chart includes all WH '08 state polling data published in The Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state. For the 14 states (including DC) without current polling data available, the winner has been estimated based on WH '00 and WH '04 results. For a full explanation of the symbols in the far right column see the key below the chart.
(Hotline's MATTHEW GOTTLIEB and CARRIE DINDINO)
For a full explanation of the symbols in the far right column see the key below the chart.
Electoral Distribution
McCAIN STATES OBAMA STATES TOSS-UP STATES M Lean McCain 26 O Lean Obama 34 -- 12 M+ Solid McCain 170 O+ Solid Obama 207 M* Bush/Bush 38 O* Gore/Kerry 51 Total 234 Total 292
State-By-State Polling
St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE +/- LEAD AL 9 49% 36% AL Ed. Assoc. 6/25-7/1 536 LVs 4.2% M+ AK 3 47 44 Ivan Moore (D) 7/18-22 504 LVs 4.4 M - 51 41 Research 2000 7/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 44 42 GlblStrgGrp(D) 6/5-10 600 LVs 4.0 M AR 6 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* AZ 10 38 28 AZ State Univ. 6/20-21 175 RVs 7.4 M+ - 50 39 Rocky Mt. Poll 5/12-20 630 RVs 3.9 M+ CA 55 35 50 PPIC 7/8-22 1401 LVs 2.6 O+ - 30 54 Field Poll 7/8-14 672 LVs 3.8 O+ - 40 47 LATimes/KTLA 5/20-21 705 RVs 3.7 O+ CO 9 41 45 Frederick (D) 7/16-22 700 LVs 3.7 O+ - 46 44 Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22 1425 LVs 2.6 M CT 7 35 57 Research 2000 6/30-7/2 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 35 56 Quinnipiac Unv 6/26-29 2437 LVs 2.0 O+ DE 3 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* DC 3 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* FL 27 45 40 Fabrizio (R) 7/20-28 1600 RVs 2.5 M+ - 44 46 Quinnipiac Unv 7/23-29 1248 LVs 2.8 O - 47 45 ARG (R) 7/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M - 49 41 StrtegicVis(R) 6/27-29 1200 LVs 2.8 M+ GA 15 51 43 StrtegicVis(R) 6/27-29 800 LVs 3.5 M+ HI 4 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* ID 4 53 37 Research 2000 7/28-30 500 LVs 4.4 M+ IL 21 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* IN 11 47 38 IN Leg Insight 5/27-6/1 601 RVs 4.0 M+ IA 7 Results '00/'04 Gore/Bush -- KS 6 49 36 TargetPoint(R) 6/27-7/1 3004 RVs 1.8 M+ - 45 41 CperSecrest(D) 6/5-8 808 LVs 3.4 M+ - 51 40 Research 2000 6/2-4 600 LVs 4.0 M+ KY 8 56 35 Research 2000 7/28-30 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 50 31 V/C Resrch (R) 6/15-17 601 LVs 4.0 M+ LA 9 52 36 SoMedia/OpnRsr 6/26-28 600 LVs 4.0 M+ ME^ 4 31 51 CrticalInsghts 6/1-27 602 RVs 4.0 O+ - 32 46 PanAtlanticSMS 6/10-18 400 Adl 4.9 O+ MD 10 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* MA 12 38 47 Suffolk Univ. 7/31-8/3 400 RVs 4.9 O+ MI 17 42 46 Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22 1684 LVs 2.4 O+ - 41 43 EPIC-MRA 7/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O MN 10 44 46 Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22 1261 LVs 2.8 O MS 6 51 42 Research 2000 7/21-23 600 LVs 4.0 M+ MO 11 43 48 Research 2000 7/7-10 800 LVs 3.5 O+ MT 3 47 39 Mason-Dixon 5/19-21 625 LVs 3.9 M+ NE^ 5 57 29 Research 2000 5/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ NV 5 44 42 Mason-Dixon 6/9-11 625 RVs 3.9 M NH 4 45 47 ARG (R) 7/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 46 UNH SurveyCntr 7/11-20 475 LVs 4.5 O - 42 39 Dartmouth Clge 4/28-5/2 401 RVs 4.9 M NJ 15 36 50 MonmouthU/Gan. 7/17-21 698 LVs 3.7 O+ - 38 47 StrtegicVis(R) 7/11-13 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 33 49 FDU/PublicMind 6/17-22 589 RVs 4.0 O+ - 39 45 Quinnipiac Unv 6/5-8 1473 RVs 2.6 O+ NM 5 Results '00/'04 Gore/Bush -- NY 31 36 57 Quinnipiac Unv 7/31-8/4 1353 LVs 2.7 O+ - 26 44 Siena College 7/17-29 671 RVs 3.8 O+ - 32 51 New York Times 6/6-11 931 RVs 3.2 0+ NC 15 47 43 Research 2000 7/28-30 600 LVs 4.0 M - 43 40 Tel Opinion(R) 7/14-16 800 LVs 3.5 M ND 3 45 42 Research 2000 7/21-23 500 LVs 4.4 M OH 20 44 46 Quinnipiac Unv 7/23-29 1229 LVs 2.8 O OK 7 46 24 Sooner Poll 7/19-23 750 LVs 3.6 M+ - 52 38 Research 2000 6/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+ OR 7 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* PA 21 42 49 Quinnipiac Unv 7/23-29 1317 LVs 2.7 O+ - 40 49 StrtegicVis(R) 7/25-27 1200 LVs 2.8 O+ RI 4 25 53 Opinion Factor 6/18-27 500 RVs 4.4 O+ SC 8 53 40 Research 2000 7/22-23 500 LVs 4.4 M+ SD 3 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* TN 11 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* TX 34 52 36 Baselice (R) 5/20-25 1005 RVs 3.1 M+ UT 5 57 29 Dan Jones Assc 6/16-19 405 RVs 4.9 M+ VT 3 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* VA 13 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* WA 11 35 47 Elway Poll 7/27-31 405 RVs 4.9 O+ - 37 48 StrtegicVis(R) 7/25-27 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 37 47 Moore Info (R) 7/9-10 400 RVs 4.9 O+ - 39 47 Strtegs360 (D) 6/21-26 1200 RVs 2.8 O+ WV 5 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* WI 10 38 44 WPRI 8/3-4 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 39 50 Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22 1094 LVs 3.0 O+ - 37 50 Univ. of WI 6/8-10 506 LVs 4.4 O+ WY 3 53 40 Research 2000 5/20-21 500 LVs 4.4 M+
Key
SYMBOL STATES M McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E. M+ McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E. M* No Current Polling Data AND Voted Bush Twice O Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E. O+ Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E. O* No Current Polling Data AND Voted Both Gore & Kerry -- Most Recent Poll Tied OR No Data & Voted Bush Once
^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.
(Hotline's MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
Posted at 03:58 PM
Comments
This should be close. Obama is not getting the blow out he wanted. That might be thething that kills his chances as Dems get nervous.
Andrew | 08.07.08 05:35 PM
 |
Chuck Todd on Countdown last night:
"A 5 point lead in national poll is a landslide in the electoral college."
There's a long way to go, but Barack is in great shape and McCain... well... not so much.
Ethan | 08.07.08 06:10 PM
|
Zogby and Rasmussen have McCain LEADING for the first time nationwide,,,,,,,,,
rock the vote | 08.07.08 07:00 PM
|
Post a comment
The Watergate · 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20037
202-739-8400 · fax 202-833-8069
NationalJournal.com is an Atlantic Media publication.
