October 2008

Dear XYZ:

I want you to be there with me on Election Night when the results come in.

We're planning a big event that will include tens of thousands of supporters in Grant Park in downtown Chicago.

We're saving some of the best seats in the house for 5 people who make their first donation to the campaign before Sunday at midnight.

If you're selected, you can bring a guest, and we'll fly you in and put you up in a hotel for the night. You'll go backstage at the big event and -- no matter what happens -- you'll have a front row seat to history as we celebrate the supporters who got us over the finish line.

Any donation counts -- whatever you can afford. Show your support at this crucial time with a donation of $5 or more, and you could join me on Election Night.

This movement for change has been a testament to the power of ordinary Americans coming together to achieve extraordinary things.

I look forward to having you there on Election Night.

Thank you,

Barack

Tomorrow night. A clip of a spring 2008 JM appearance.

DES MOINES, IA – The end is, perhaps, just the beginning.

With just four days to go until America elects the next president, Barack Obama returned to the state that launched his once unlikely bid for the White House.

In his speech here, he also hailed the John McCain of the 2000 elections and suggested his rival had modified his principles to try to win this time around.

Several polls show the Democratic nominee with a double-dig lead over McCain in the Hawkeye State, where his big win in the January caucus helped set him on the course to win the nomination. His last visit to this city was May 20. Today, as he did then, Obama thanked his supporters – saying he would “always be grateful” to the people of Iowa -- and told them they started a movement that has changed the political landscape.

“We began in the depths of winter nearly two years ago, on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois," he said as the crowd basked in the sun of a 70-degree day here. "Our first stop was Cedar Rapids, then we came to Des Moines and then we went to Waterloo. It was cold at every stop. It was 7, 8 degrees then."

He said that at the start, he faced a steep climb to win the nomination, but that he believed even then that the American people were ready for something new.

“On the day of the Iowa caucus, my faith in the American people was vindicated, and what you started here in Iowa has swept the nation,” he said. “We’re seeing the same turnout. We’re are seeing the same people going and getting line, volunteers, people participating, a whole new way of doing democracy started right here in Iowa and it is all across the country now.”

Obama’s success in winning in this nearly all-white state helped him begin to solidify his support among many black voters who had previously though he had no chance of winning the nation’s highest office because of his race.

The McCain campaign took issue with Obama’s use of the word “vindicated.”

“Hardworking families need a President whose faith in the American people is not predicated on his own election,” wrote spokesman Tucker Bounds in an email. “At a time of mounting economic and foreign policy challenges, this country needs a President like John McCain who is experienced and tested -- and has proven his selfless faith in the American people.”

The speech before a crowd of about 25,000 at a park downtown was largely a repeat of the closing argument Obama has been giving across the battleground states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida this week, but it included a tough criticism of McCain, casting him as a man who has changed since his first run for the White House.

Bruce Springsteen will perform an acoustic set at a rally in Cleveland, Ohio, Sunday for Barack Obama, the campaign announced today. Obama and his wife will attend.

John McCain closes with a biographical ad that mention his service to country and time as a POW.

"Don't hope for a stronger America," McCain says in a voiceover, "vote for one."

** Note that at the end of the 30-second spot, running in key states, the narrator says "McCain," not "McCain/Palin" -- even as the campaign's logo, with both names, appears on screen.

(JS)

Ken Duberstein, Ronald Reagan's chief of staff, endorsed Barack Obama today, and, in the process, criticized Sarah Palin's readiness to take over the presidency, if need be, and John McCain's judgment in selecting her as his veep nom: "Even at McDonalds you're interviewed three times before you're given the job."

Here's Duberstein talking today to MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell:

For the first time since hanging chads kept the nation transfixed for weeks, Al Gore campaigned today in FL. Now an Oscar and Nobel Prize winner, Gore may be a different man than he was back then, but -- as the local press reports -- many in the state that secured the 2000 election for President Bush are still very much living in the past.

From the South Florida Sun-Sentinel today:

Florida has revamped its ballot systems. Hanging chads and butterfly ballots are gone. Now, in using reminders of 2000, political experts say the Obama campaign is conducting a get-out-the-vote strategy that carries some risks.

"They're trying to play to their base with a reminder that inaction, failure to vote, could lead to another disappointment like 2000," said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton.

Still, Wagner said, "there is a distinct possibility" that the effort could backfire. Bringing Gore here "could remind people that their vote didn't count and that the voting exercise didn't generate what they would perceive as a democratic outcome."

But reminding voters of '00 is exactly what Gore had in mind. From the Palm Beach Post's report on the rally:

"Right now we are in the final days of this historic campaign. Don't let anyone take your vote away from you or talk you into throwing it away. Go and vote early," Gore told a crowd of around 200 at the Palm Beach County Convention Center.

Gore was introduced by Mayor Lois Frankel as the rightful winner of the 2000 election. "This election is personal to us," Frankel said. "We know it was the curse of the Butterfly Ballot that brought the chaos to the world. ... It started here and it must end here."

But is there more to Gore's Florida experience than just the butterfly ballot? One Florida environmentalist thinks so. From the Palm Beach Politics blog:

Gore, a lifelong environmentalist, blew it with the local environmental community - or at least enough members of it in an election with a paper-thin margin - by refusing to oppose the construction of a commercial airport between Biscayne and Everglades national parks.

It's a cautionary tale for any presidential candidate courting Florida's varied constituencies, and it appears in the the new book Everglades Betrayal: The Issue that Defeated Al Gore, by Monika Mayr, a National Park Service official who held a top position at Biscayne National Park.

According to her account, a week before election day, a crucial meeting took place among environmentalists and officials of the Gore campaign.

"Listen to what we are telling you," said Don Chinquina, executive director of Tropical Audubon Society. "You will lose the election in South Florida if you do not take a stand on the air base issue.”

Gore remained silent, and furious environmentalists vowed to desert him at the polls. Enough may have stayed home or voted for Ralph Nader (who had denounced the airport proposal) to swing the state, and the election, according to Mayr’s account.

With 73 new state matchups released since the previous update, Battle For The Electoral College is slightly overwhelmed. Barack Obama's overall EV margin has increased since 10/28, although his solid EV advantage has decreased. Obama now leads John McCain 364 EVs to 171 EVs; among solid EVs, he's up 251 EVs to 123 EVs.

Obama leads 51 of the 57 new battleground state polls, including 26 beyond the margin of error. McCain leads four within the margin of error, and the remaining two are tied. The most polled states since the 10/28 edition are PA (8), FL (6), NH (6), OH (6), NC (5) and VA (5).

The chart available after the jump reflects all state polls conducted fully since the conclusion of the GOP convo on 9/4. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(CARRIE DINDINO)

A memo:

To: Interested Parties
From: Steve Smith, AFL-CIO
Re: AFL-CIO's Final GOTV Push

Just wanted to send a final update on AFL-CIO activity through Election Day and a couple of quick notes about how we got here. Also wanted to let you know that on Wednesday the AFL-CIO will hold a press briefing to release election night polling of union members done for us by Peter Hart Research and discuss our economic agenda for the new Administration and Congress. The briefing will be held at AFL-CIO Headquarters in Washington, DC. Out-of-town reporters will be able to join by phone. More information on the briefing to follow.

The AFL-CIO has mounted its largest GOTV effort in history heading into the final weekend with what we call the "Final Four". More than 100,000 volunteers are out in 21 battleground states beginning tomorrow through Election Day visiting more than 3.9 million union households, making 5.5 million calls and distributing more than 2 million leaflets at worksites urging union voters to get to the polls in support of Barack Obama on November 4. AFL-CIO top officers will be in Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Ohio in the final four days.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts Fred Thompson and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), and a roundtable with Washington Post's David Broder, NBC's David Gregory, NPR's Michele Norris and NBC pol. dir. Chuck Todd.

Face the Nation (from NY) hosts Obama strategist David Axelrod, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

This Week hosts Axelrod and McCain mgr. Rick Davis, and a roundtable with Time's Mark Halperin, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, ex-Bush strategist Matthew Dowd and George Will.

Fox News Sunday (from NY) hosts Davis, Obama mgr. David Plouffe and Karl Rove.

Late Edition (expanded three-hour special) hosts Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), VA Gov. Tim Kaine (D), GOP strategist Alex Castellanos, GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, Dem strategist James Carville, CNN's Candy Crowley, CNN's Campbell Brown, CNN's John King, Dem strategist Paul Begala, ex-WH adviser David Gergen, CNN's Bill Schneider, CNN's Howard Kurtz, CNN's Gloria Borger, GOP strategist Ed Rollins, Washington Times' Tara Wall and Dem strategist Hilary Rosen.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

NEWARK, DE - Joe Biden returned to his home state to kick off the final run to Election Day, telling fellow Blue Hens on the campus of the University of Delaware that Barack Obama "will be the president this moment demands."

Biden, who also faces re-election here, compared his message today as his party's vice presidential nominee to the one he brought to his alma mater during his first campaign in 1972, when he said that the problem facing the nation "has not been the failure of the people to meet the challenges before them, but rather it's been a failure of both the political parties to place the challenges honestly and squarely before the American people."

"I come today with greater confidence and passion about the ability of this country to change and make things better," he said. "I believe this country is ready to make the sacrifices necessary and to embrace the change we need to restore the hope of our people, and once again, once again become the beacon of light for the entire world. That's our responsibility, that's our possibilities, that's what we must do."

The speech was full of memories from Biden's time as a student, when he said some of the nation's most transformative events in American history occurred, leading up to his graduation in 1965. He also noted the curiosity that top officials from both campaigns, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe and John McCain chief Steve Schmidt, attended the school.

Biden urged students to imagine a country with Obama as president, and compare it to what a President McCain might offer.

"He'll appeal to America's better angels," Biden said of Obama. "I believe that John McCain, through the conduct of his campaign, unfortunately continues to think that the way you win is to divide. ... Ladies and gentlemen, Barack will remind we are one nation, under God, we are indivisible. Our best days are ahead of us, not behind us."

The electoral result in Delaware is hardly in doubt, the state votes reliably Democratic, but today's rally was meant to serve several purposes for the campaign. Biden urged students to volunteer to "help influence our neighbors to the north in Pennsylvania." It was also meant to draw additional coverage in the Philadelphia media market, though Biden had to compete with a Phillies victory.

"Special thanks to all those of you who chose to be here instead of going to the Phillies victory parade," Biden said. Then pointing to his wife, a "rabid" fan, he said, "I'm particularly thankful to my wife, Jill, for choosing to be here."

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

During a scene-setter conference call with reporters this a.m., John McCain's team said they believe they're in play in all the states the GOPer needs to win to get to 270.

"We are witnessing what I believe is probably one of the greatest comebacks since John McCain won the primary," said campaign manager Rick Davis.

Pushing back against reports of friction between McCain's team and Sarah Palin's staffers, Davis took pains to give a shout-out to Palin, who is stumping in PA today.

"She’s electrifying crowds all across the battleground states, and we really appreciate the hard work she’s putting in," he said.

McCain Pollster Bill McInturff said he estimates Tuesday turnout at 130-135M people.

McCain is stumping in OH today with CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Barack Obama, McCain's team noted, is in Iowa today -- despite his campaign's assertion that they have the first-in-the-nation caucus state in the bag. But Davis said their data has the candidates even in Iowa. Obama's team has insisted that the trip to Iowa is all about nostalgia, not electoral urgency; after all, it's where Obama's bid gained steamed.

The GOP nom, meanwhile, will campaign Sunday in the state that revived his WH campaign: NH.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

John McCain's campaign is launching an "Honest and Open Election Hotline" for voters to "report any instances of irregularities at the polls, including voter fraud, intimidation, violence and electioneering."

The hotline can be accessed via phone at: 866-976-VOTE.

"With November 4th quickly approaching, our Honest and Open Election hotline will serve as an informative guide for all Americans participating in the electoral process," said the camp's national political director Mike DuHaime. "The hotline will allow us to learn about and take steps toward remedying any voter irregularities at polling places across the country. While we are hopeful that Election Day will be free of any wrongdoing, allies of the Democrat Party, such as ACORN, have shown a willingness to commit fraud in both this election cycle and in 2004. Given the tightness of the polls, all examples of fraud must be addressed to preserve the integrity of the election."

Hillary Clinton and President Clinton round out their 2008 journey over the next four days campaigning for Barack Obama and Joe Biden, as well as other Dem candidates, in FL, KY, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OH, PA, VA, and WV ...

Here's their sched:

HRC is in Ohio today headlining two 'Change We Need' rallies in Ironton and Kirtland. Clinton will also appear at an American Federation Of Teachers (AFT) Bus Tour Stop in Cincinnati.

HRC travels to Orlando and Miami tomorrow and to KY Sunday to stump for Bruce Lunsford, who is looking to oust Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Clinton will also campaign Sunday in VA for Obama/Biden.

President Clinton will attend headline events in WV and NJ Saturday before traveling to NH Sunday to campaign for Obama/Biden and former governor Jeanne Shaheen, who is running against incumbent GOP Sen. John Sununu.

More details to come.

LATROBE, PA - Sarah Palin appealed to more conservative "Casey Democrats" in Pennsylvania Friday, but the strongest appeal came from a very persuadable local legend, former Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka.

"When you look at the next eight years in this country, there's gonna be some tough times, gang," Ditka said at an airport hangar rally. "We talk about change. Change from what, to what, and how? How you gonna do anything? Don't talk about what you're gonna do, prove you can do something."

Ditka - who grew up in nearby Aliquippa and played for Pitt - cited the late John F. Kennedy, saying the country had swayed from the ideals of not asking what the country can do for you, but what you can do for the country, whom she has frequently cited on the campaign trail.

"This is the land of opportunity, it's not a land of handouts," the coach said. "If you're willing to work, you can find a job."

Palin gave an abbreviated version of her stump speech, suggesting Democratic victories in the White House and Congress would lead to a "far left" agenda that would include cuts to defense spending. She made her appeal to more moderate Democrats, known as "Casey Democrats," after the late Pennsylvanian governor Robert P. Casey, whose son, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., is backing Barack Obama.

"And with your help, and with the help of the good Casey Democrats here in Pennsylvania too, that's the spirit that John McCain and I will be able to bring to Washington," Palin said.

She also reiterated a line she has commonly used in Pennsylvania, reminding voters that Obama suggested they "cling to religion and guns" during the primaries.

"Don't quite know what to make of a candidate like that," she said. "We tend to prefer candidate that don't talk about us one way in Latrobe and then another way in San Francisco."

Palin was joined on stage by three of her children, including two in costume. Daughter Piper was dressed as an ice princess and six-month-old Trig was in an elephant costume.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

Former Sec. of State Lawrence Eagleburger, who served under George H.W. Bush and has endorsed John McCain, let loose yesterday on NPR about Sarah Palin's lack of preparedness to be president:

"Give her some time in the office and I think the answer would be, she will be [pause] adequate. I can't say that she would be a genius in the job. But I think she would be enough to get us through a four year... well I hope not... get us through whatever period of time was necessary. And I devoutly hope that it would never be tested."

Per The Huffington Post. It's a major ouch.

Barack Obama's camp is launching new TV ads -- "Rearview Mirror" and "Something" -- in three states previously thought to be a lock for John McCain.

NBC/NJ's Athena Jones reports that campaign manager David Plouffe explained the thinking behind the move this a.m. on a call with reporters:

* In Georgia, Plouffe said the campaign did a lot of work there and still has a lot of staff on the ground and that the early vote there was going extremely well, but said "if we win it, we win it narrowly."

* The campaign is running only the positive ad "Something" in Arizona because they are cognizant that it's McCain's home state. Plouffe said they thought a positive ad could help make the case. He said if someone else had been the Republican nominee, Arizona would have been a battleground and that Obama's strong performance with Hispanics in the West was holding true in Arizona as well.

* Plouffe said these states - Arizona, Georgia, North Dakota - were enough in the "realm of possibility" that the campaign wanted to put in the extra effort in the final days

Other broader Plouffe observations:

*The campaign is pleased with the early vote numbers they are seeing in several states. Plouffe said; "we like what we're seeing in all the early vote states." He mentioned North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada in particular. They believe they have built a good enough margin that on Election Day, McCain will have to "not only carry the day but carry it by some margin."

*The campaign won't say what their turnout predictions are but say McCain pollster Bill McInturff's prediction is low (McInturff predict turnout of 130 million)

* They believe the AP survey number saying 1 in 7 voters were still persuadable was high.

* The campaign believes Obama is doing much better with Hispanics in Florida than the Dem noms did in 2004 or 2000. Plouffe said they we doing well among Puerto Ricans, people of Colombian descent and young people of Cuban descent.

* Campaign said some 20 percent of early voters in Florida were African American

* Plouffe said Florida had possibly the biggest pool of sporadic-voting Democrats, and "we think we're on a good trajectory there" in terms of sporadic and new voters.

* They believe their turnout apparatus in North Carolina and Georgia will help downballot Democrats.

* As for Independents, he said that Independents in the West - for instance in Colorado - were leaning toward Obama

New John McCain spot running in key states highlights Barack Obama's praise of the GOPer for pushing a bill to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

My piece in today's National Journal magazine:

Finally, The Year Of The Youth Vote?

A teaser:

FAIRFAX, Va. -- Alexandra Kernan-Schloss waited in line for 11 hours in 2004 to vote near her school, Kenyon College, in Gambier, Ohio. With just two voting booths at the polling place, she wasn't able to cast her first-ever presidential ballot until 3 a.m. -- after news of her candidate's defeat had been widely reported.

But their final exam in Presidential Politics 101 awaits: Come election time, the 18-to-29-year-old set has been a quadrennial disappointment. They are chronic "underperformers," as political wonks term young voters for failing to match their elders in turnout. The young demographic's participation started at 55 percent in 1972, when a constitutional amendment lowered the voting age from 21 to 18, but turnout has never again been so high. Since then, registered voters under 30 have broken the 50 percent participation mark only once -- in 1992, when a 46-year-old, saxophone-playing Southern governor used late-night television to court the cool cohort.

Obama/Biden 48%
McCain/Palin 41%
Undec 6%

- Obama's advantage among Indies is down to 2%. He leads them 38-36%; as recently as two days ago, Obama led Indies 47-33%.

- Obama now leads women by 16%, and McCain leads men by 2%. That's largely static from a week ago when Obama led women by 16% and McCain led men by 1% in the survey completed 10/23.

- 68% of Obama voters are enthusiastic about supporting him compared to 52% of McCain voters who say the same. A week ago, 70% of Obama supporters were enthusiastic compared to 55% of McCain supporters.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/28-30 by FD, surveyed 870 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 42%D, 36%R, 18%I. Look for full results in today's Latest Edition.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Last night's TV coverage was dominated by poll analysis. Barack Obama also made the rounds:

MSNBC's Maddow sat down with Obama in FL.

Maddow: "When John McCain calls you a socialist. ... He calls you soft on national security. That's not just an anti-Barack Obama script. He's reading from an anti-Democrat, and specifically an anti-liberal stance."

Obama: "Absolutely."

Maddow: "And so, you have the opportunity to say John McCain, George Bush, you're wrong. You also have the opportunity to say, conservatism has been bad for America. But, you haven't gone there either."

Obama: "I think we're winning right now so maybe I'm doing something right. I know you've been cruising for a bruising for a while here, looking for a fight out there. But, I just think people are tired of that kind of back and forth, tit for tat, ideological approach to the problems" ("Rachel Maddow Show," 10/30).

More after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Actor/director/hunk Robert Redford campaigns tomorrow for CO Senate candidate Mark Udall. The Sundance Film Festival founder will participate in an early vote rally at the Aurora Municipal Center Xeriscape Garden in Aurora. 9:45 a.m.

The latest Allstate/National Journal Battleground Poll, released today, also surveyed three critical swing state Senate races and found the Democrats are out front.

Here's what we learned:

NC
Kay Hagan (D) 43%
Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) 37%

VA
Mark Warner (D) 60%
Jim Gilmore (R) 31%

CO
Mark Udall (D) 51%
Bob Schaffer (R) 36%

Read on.

WILLIAMSPORT, PA - Joe the Biden as Joe the Closer?

Speaking in a town where little league baseball is king, Joe Biden crowed about the new World Champions of Major League Baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies. It seems his wife is the real fan of the family, though, having braved the elements to see both nights of Game 5.

"I'm on the campaign trail, she says, 'Joe I'm going to the Series,'" Biden said during a rally at Lycoming College. "So on Monday night in the rain, hair matted down, sitting outside soaking wet, she sat through the whole deal. She went back to, to the game last night and was there."

The Delaware senator and Scranton native, meanwhile, didn't catch the end of the game last night, taking off from Florida about 20 minutes before the final out was recorded. His wife was not only there, but appeared on sports talk radio in Philadelphia this morning, talking quite a bit about closer Brad Lidge.

"Worries me a little, sister," he joked to a nun in the audience.

When the two spoke, the Dem veep nom recounted, Jill kept talking about Lidge, who ended a perfect season by saving the game last night. Biden said his wife urged him to play a similar role for the Democratic ticket.

"She said, 'Joe, you have to do what this campaign needs, what Brad did that night. Lights out tonight. Lights out!"

Biden said he wasn't sure he could be as dominant as the Phillies right-hander but hopes to build on support in the Keystone State, which he said will "make the gigantic difference in who the next President of the United States of America is."

He also worked some baseball terminology into his remarks about the negative attacks coming from the McCain campaign. "They don't want you to focus on the things that genuinely affect your lives," he said. "This is all designed, all designed to take your eye off the ball."

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

Per Geoff Earle of the NY Post, the pool report of Barack Obama's afternoon visit to a Sarasota, FL, pumpkin patch.

Keeping it light and fluffy. What frontrunners do.

After the jump.

Nielsen reported this afternoon that 33.5M people watched Barack Obama’s 30-minute infomercial last night. The simulcast aired on CBS, FOX, NBC, Univision, BET, MSNBC, and TV One between 8 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. EST.

On an average Wednesday night , these networks draw a combined average of 30.3M average viewers during that half-hour.

In 1996, Ross Perot ran a similar infomercial on three networks and drew almost 22.7 million viewers.

ELYRIA, OH - After looking for Joe the Plumber to no avail at a stop in this battleground state this morning, John McCain found his virtual sidekick in Sandusky this afternoon. Although both the candidate and his new traveling companion made mostly the same remarks at each stop, Joe added one key line:

"Get out there and vote, it's very important," Joe said. "You get out here and get the American people back in charge of our government. Hold politicians feet to the fire when they mess up. That's what we're out here to do. Alright? Smaller government, you know? As far as everyone else here, well that's the question, and go ask them to vote for a real American, John McCain."

At an earlier stop, Joe simply encouraged the crowd to vote without telling them to support McCain. But before a much smaller crowd at Lorain Community College, Joe was a bit more specific.

During his introduction, McCain also had many a kind word for Joe, who has become something of a mascot for his campaign.

"So my friends, all the efforts we made in trying to make sure Americans understood that Senator Obama wants to raise your taxes and he wants to increase your spending by a trillion dollars, was the man who spoke for small businesses all over America Joe the Plumber," McCain said.

(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)

ERIE, PA - Sarah Palin painted her running mate Thursday as the more experienced candidate who could balance both economic and foreign affairs. She suggested that Barack Obama is inspiring but won't keep the nation safe.

"I think in this campaign a lot of Americans are realizing that a man can be admired in many ways, and he can show great promise, and yet still not be ready for the most important and demanding job in the world," Palin said after meeting with the campaign's national security advisors. "Rousing speeches can fill a stadium, but perhaps cannot keep this country safe though."

Palin used her first extensive comments on national security to raise the threat of a Democratic White House and Congress, saying they would cut 25 percent of defense spending.

"Let's not retreat from wars that are almost won," Palin said at Penn State University-Erie. "And let's not gut the defense budget in a time of multiple conflicts and obvious dangers. And let's not entrust all the powers of the federal government to the one-party rule of Obama, Pelosi, and Reid."

Palin first met briefly with a panel that included former homeland security secretary Tom Ridge and former CIA director James Woolsey. But her embargoed comments were released before the meeting began, suggesting the content of the discussion had no impact on her statement.

Palin said that while the country may be focused on economic issues, the terrorism threat remains. She said Obama has tried to change the focus in recent days, including with his half-hour primetime television advertisement Wednesday.

"Now, Barack Obama didn't have much to say in that long infomercial of his last night about the stakes in the wars that America is fighting, or about the need to support the troops in the field, or why he supported cutting off funding for our troops in the war," she said. "He prefers it seems to wrap his closing message in a kind of -- that warm and fuzzy commercial message that was scripted. He wants to soften the focus in these closing days, hoping that your mind won't wander to the real challenges of national security that I believe he is incapable of meeting."

She said the next president will need to be as focused on Osama bin Laden and Iran as the economic crisis.

"One of the requirements of presidential leadership is to understand that the 'dangers of the world' do not disappear when our attention is diverted," Palin said. "In fact, if we remain distracted for too long, they become much, much worse."

She also used comments Biden made recently noting that Obama would be tested as commander in chief.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

A group called the American Conservative Union has filed an ethics complaint against Barack Obama for failing to disclose gifts -- read land -- from disgraced Chicago businessman Tony Rezko.

Sound familiar?

SEIU is up with a $425K ad buy in OH featuring Meghan Cofield, a former factory worker from Dayton. John McCain, she reminds her battleground neighbors, voted for tax breaks that send jobs overseas.

(Timothy A. Clary/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images)

Al and Tipper Gore will stump tomorrow morning for Barack Obama at 'Early Vote for Change' rallies in West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, the campaign announced this afternoon.

Stops in the Sunshine State and an obvious message: what could have, would have, should have been. ...

Talking about contested Senate contests ...

DEFIANCE, OH - "Where is Joe? Is Joe here with us today?"

That's the question John McCain asked roughly 6,000 people at Defiance Junior High School this morning. But Joe the Plumber was nowhere to be found.

There are conflicting reports about where or when or if Joe Wurzelbacher will appear with McCain at some point during his two-day bus tour of Ohio, but the candidate clearly thought that he was meeting him here in Defiance, the first stop on the tour.

While riffing on a common line from his stump speech about Barack Obama's desire to "spread the wealth," McCain confidently proclaimed, "Joe's with us today. Joe where are ya? Where is Joe? Is Joe here with us today? Joe, I thought you were here today."

Then the senator covered up for Joe's absence by saying, "Alright, well you're all Joe the Plumber, so all of ya stand up and say, I thank you." McCain went on to say that he had seen Joe on TV this morning, and he asked the crowd to "give him a round of applause for what he's done for America."

McCain also hit Obama on some comments he made to ABC's Charlie Gibson last night when asked if he had thought about what he would do after November 4th if he lost.

"Aboslutely," Obama said. "Look, when I started this campaign we were the longest of long shots, and Michelle and I were extraordinarily happy before I started running, and I'm a relatively young man. Ya know they say there are no second acts in politics, but I think there are enough exceptions out there, that I could envision returning to the Senate and just doing some terrific work with the next president and next Congress."

McCain urged his audience this morning to help "make it happen," but he injected another meaning into Obama's comment, saying that Obama promised to "try again in four years with a second act."

A local school district official confirmed after the event that of the 6,000 people estimated by the fire marshal to be in attendance this morning, more than 4,000 were bused in from schools in the area. The entire 2,500-student Defiance School District was in attendance, the official said, in addition to at least three other schools from neighboring districts, one of which sent 14 buses.

(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)

ARNOLD, MO - Recent layoffs at a nearby auto plant were Exhibit A for Joe Biden this morning as he spoke about new data underscoring the nation's economic troubles.

Reaching out to those who lost their jobs when a Chrysler plant shut its doors yesterday in nearby Fenton, Biden somberly related their plight to those of auto workers in his home state when a GM plant closed, saying that he and Barack Obama would work to create new jobs if elected.

"That walk from that plant gate to their car to home is one of the longest walks they've ever taken in their life," Biden said, adding that it's not as long as the walk they faced at home to tell their kids they might have to sell their home and move elsewhere.

"That conversation is taking place in 35,000 homes right here in Missouri right here this year," he said. "You know, if we can help Wall Street, we oughta be able to help Jeffco Boulevard and other streets in Arnold to be able to do the same thing to help them. And we're not paying enough attention."

He said the Democrats' plans to invest in infrastructure projects and clean energy would create jobs, and that their tax plan will help middle class families during tough times. The drop in America's GDP rate, announced this morning, came because many Americans have cut back on spending.

Meanwhile, Biden said, Exxon Mobil announced its largest quarterly effort.

"Now look, they're not bad guys -- I'm not making this populist argument," Biden said. "But lets take a look at it folks. Here the entire economy of America is shrinking. And the oil companies are, this one in fact, made the largest profit in its history in a quarter. Ladies and gentlemen, what more evidence do we need that the Exxon Mobils of the world don't need a tax break? That $4 billion should go to middle class taxpayers, people who need the money. ... John [McCain] and Governor Palin have this upside down."

This is Biden's fourth trip to Missouri, though he'll make just the one stop before heading back to Pennsylvania for the first time in nearly three weeks. Biden said he and Obama are closing on a positive note, pointing to last night's prime-time 30-minute infomercial as proof.

"You saw Barack last night in that half hour message, never once mentioned John McCain's name. Never once mentioned our opponent," he said. "We've been talking about what we are going to do, what we think has to be done. And when this is over, even those people who viciously attacked Barack, even those people who have been less than honest about us, we gotta reach out. ... We gotta start healing the country."

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

Robert Gibbs, a senior advisor to Barack Obama, talked to reporters today, and the full report, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones, is available after the jump.

The News: Obama will make three stops Sunday in Ohio

Gibbs talks Halloween (Obama will Trick or Treat in Chi tmrw eve with his daughters), Missouri, Ohio, John McCain’s Khalidi attack, ethics complaint and the story about Obama’s ‘aunt’ (no comment on this)

Read on.

The latest Allstate National Journal Battleground poll, released today, shows Barack Obama with an edge over John McCain in five swing states that President Bush won in 2004: CO, FL, NC, OH and VA.

CO: Obama, 48%, McCain, 44%

FL: Obama, 45%, McCain, 44%

NC: Obama, 47%, McCain, 43%

OH: Obama, 48%, McCain, 41%

VA: Obama, 48%, McCain, 44%

Obama has a nine-point lead when asked who can better handle the economy, while McCain has seen his advantage on preparedness whittled to one point. Obama has a 16-point lead when battleground voters were asked who "understands the needs and priorities of people like yourself," and the Democrat is up 11 points on a question about who has "displayed more of the personal skills and qualities it takes to succeed as president."

Meanwhile, Bush's disapproval ratings in each of the five states hover in the mid-60s, slightly below recent national averages but likely still to be hampering McCain's progress in these states.

NJ's Jim Barnes digs deeper into the survey.

Nielsen released last night's ratings of Barack Obama’s national campaign spot for the 56 local markets where the group has meters.

Per a Nielsen release:

-- Overall, for the six networks that aired the program simultaneously, the spot had a household rating of 21.7% (meaning that 21.7 percent of all households watching television were tuned to the spot.)

-- By comparison, the final debate between the two presidential candidates received a 38.3 household rating in the top 56 local TV markets. The candidates’ first debate 9/26 received a 34.7 household rating in the top 55 markets; their second debate 10/7 received a 42.0 household rating in those markets.

-- The last presidential candidate to air a paid simulcast was Ross Perot in 1996, which received a national household rating of 16.8.

-- Last night, the Baltimore market had the largest TV audience, with a household rating of 31.3, while the Portland market had the lowest household rating: 14.2.

The GDP fell 0.3 percent between July and September, yet another sign of the nation's economic troubles, and the presidential campaigns weighed in:

Doug Holtz-Eakin, senior policy adviser to John McCain's campaign, issued this statement this a.m. on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) number:

"Today's announcement that third quarter GDP fell at a 0.3 percent rate confirms what Americans already knew: the economy is shrinking. Barack Obama would accelerate this dangerous course. According to the independent Center for Data Analysis, Barack Obama's new policies will destroy nearly 6 million jobs over the next decade.

"Barack Obama's ideologically-driven plans to redistribute income will impose higher taxes on families, small businesses, and investors; expensive, rigid, job-killing health mandates on employers; energy policies that fail to promote domestic oil, natural gas, and coal, and will impose a massive Washington-driven regulation of everything from home furnaces to factories; isolationist trade policies that endanger one out of every five jobs; and massive new spending plans that that will burden the economy and saddle our children with debt. Barack Obama is change Americans cannot afford.

"John McCain's comprehensive reforms will clean up Wall Street, clean up Washington, and create nearly 2 million more jobs over the same period. John McCain offers a new direction and a real choice: lower taxes and under control spending; lower health care costs and portable insurance; an energy policy that declares independence from dangerous and unstable sources, values the environment, and supports growth; serious reforms to taxes, education, and trade to promote global competitiveness, and short-run plans to help the seniors, savers, homeowners, and workers hurt by the financial crisis."

And a statement from Barack Obama, released by his campaign:

“This morning, we learned that GDP has fallen for the first time this year, which means America is producing less and selling less and our economy is shrinking. American consumers were especially hard hit, experiencing their largest decline in spending in 28 years as wages failed to keep up with the rising cost of living. The decline in our GDP didn’t happen by accident – it is a direct result of the Bush Administration's trickle down, Wall Street first, Main Street last policies that John McCain has embraced for the last eight years and plans to continue for the next four. These policies didn’t work then, they won’t work now, and I’m running for President to end them. We need to grow our economy by creating jobs, providing tax relief for middle class families, and helping people stay in their homes, and that is exactly what I will do as President."

Barack Obama's closing tv ads focus on the economy and mention endorsements from Warren Buffett and Colin Powell. Both ads will start airing tomorrow in "key states."

"Rearview Mirror"

"Something"

Obama/Biden 48%

McCain/Palin 42%

Undec 6%

- After losing 2% of support over the last two days, Obama now leads by 6%. McCain meanwhile has held steady at 42% for five consecutive releases.

- Obama's overall losses are driven largely by Indies -- his support among them has fallen 7% over the last two days, from 48% to 41%. Over the same period, McCain's Indie support went from 36% to 35%.

- Among the 19% of respondents who have already voted, Obama leads 55-36%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/27-29 by FD, surveyed 869 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 17%I. Look for full results in today's Latest Edition.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

The reviews of Barack Obama's half-hour ad are in:

MSNBC's Olbermann: "This was the first time in 16 years that a presidential candidate had aired a pro-longed campaign commercial in primetime, seven networks at once at a cost to the Obama campaign estimated between $3.5 million and $5 million" ("Countdown," 10/29).

FNC's Hannity: "This Hollywood production, Oval Office set, this overproduced, 'Oprahesque,' it was just bad -- it was embarrassing almost at times" ("Hannity & Colmes," 10/29).

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "I thought there were aspects of it one could criticize. I thought there were just an awful lot of promises about 'what I'm going to do' and not enough sense of, wow, this is going to be much tougher than it looks, and no call for sacrifice. So, there were times the music, I thought, was a little dramatic. But, at the risk of gushing, I must tell you, overall, it was extremely well done. I thought it was effective as a political statement" ("AC 360," CNN, 10/29).

Newsweek's Wolffe: "Nothing about that half-hour was coincidental. And look where the families were from. Look at the references to Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado; this is where this election getting fought. ... This is a signature Obama strategy to say my story is the American story. Narratives are weaved together in the way we are going to talk about our problems. Geography, personal touch; this is a classic Obama touch" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 10/29).

After the jump, more reviews and Obama/McCain make the TV rounds.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Barack Obama's 30-minute commercial was a beautifully-produced, meticulously thought through effort to close the deal with the American people.

Nothing was overlooked:

-- Not the featured citizens who live in battleground USA (MO, OH, NM);

-- Not the featured pols, who also hail from swing states (OH Gov. Ted Strickland, KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, NM Gov. Bill Richardson, VA Gov. Tim Kaine, MO Sen. Claire McCaskill, among others);

-- Not the other featured big shots, Google CEO Eric Schmidt and a Ret. Brig. Gen. named ... John Adams;

-- Not the painful imagery of our nation's struggling citizens (the elderly woman massaging her arthritis-ravaged fingers, the mother who tells her kids that the food on the refrigerator door is all they have for the week, the 72-year-old retiree who built his house with his own hands and paid for it in full but had to return to work to make ends meet, the third-generation Ford worker whose hours are being slashed);

-- Not the scenes of Obama with his daughters, or the interview with Michelle, who notes that her husband read the entire Harry Potter series aloud to his girls;

-- Not the biographical reminders of Obama's story, the mother who died of cancer, the father he never knew;

-- And not the seamless cut-away to Florida where Obama implored a stadium of voters and those watching in tv land that he needs them to knock on doors, make calls and vote.

A flawless sales job, answered in the first commercial break by a John McCain ad challenging the Democrat's experience, asserting that Obama is not ready ... "yet."

And through the gloss, the footage of waves of grain and more, the piece aimed to reassure still skeptical voters that Obama is like them and that he has their needs and deepest worries at heart. The video pitched a measured leader who, for these uncertain times, might have qualities that trump long years of service.

"I’m reminded every single day that I am not a perfect man," Obama said in a voice over. "I will not be a perfect president. But I can promise you this – I will always tell you what I think and where I stand. I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you when we disagree. And most importantly I will open the doors of government and ask you to be involved in your own democracy again."

Are you buying?

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

A trailer of Barack Obama's 30-minute address/informercial/appeal to the nation:

The big show starts at 8 p.m. ET.

Emailed from HillPAC to supporters:

BOWLING GREEN, OH - Sarah Palin joined her running mate's attacks against Barack Obama and the media Wednesday, suggesting the Los Angeles Times is withholding a videotape that shows Obama watching as a former Palestinian Liberation Organization spokesman bashed Israel.

Palin departed from her stump speech to talk about Obama's "assortment of friends from Chicago." She described Rashid Khalidi, the former PLO spokesman, as "another radical professor from the neighborhood who spent a lot of time with Barack Obama going back several years." She said Obama was at a party for Khalidi in 2003, when he described Israel as the perpetrator of terrorism.

But she saved her hardest criticism for the newspaper that currently holds the tape, saying they was refusing to release it to aid Obama.

"It must be nice for a candidate to have major news organizations looking after his best interests like that," Palin said. "In this case, we have a newspaper willing to throw aside even the public's right to know in order to protect a candidate that its own editorial board has endorsed. And if there's a Pulitzer Prize category for excelling in cow-towing, then the L.A. Times, you're winning."

Palin's comments echoed criticism John McCain has voiced in recent days. The Los Angeles Times has said they are not producing the tape because it was given to the newspaper with the condition that it not be released. But the paper documented the substance on the tape in an April 2008 article.

The Alaska governor said the newspaper could restore its credibility by producing the tape.

After the jump, Joe the Plumber makes an appearance on the stump with Palin.

Via votevets.org, former NE Sen. Bob Kerrey is soliciting cash for Rep. Jack Murtha, who is engaged in what should've been an easy re-elect effort after noting that voters in western PA are racist, and Gary Peters, who is running in Michigan’s 9th.

Murtha and Kerrey are Vietnam vets. Peters served in the Gulf. Full letter available after the jump.

JUPITER, FL - As his three-day bus tour of the Sunshine State worked its way south, Joe Biden placed additional emphasis this morning on seniors issues and defending Israel, something he said can be best assured by restoring America's image abroad.

"I've worked with every prime minister of Israel from Golda Meir right through to the present prime minister," Biden said. "That's why Barack and I know, we know what the Israelis know and all our friends know. That is, the greater the respect for America, the stronger America is in the world, the more secure Israel and the rest of our friends are in the world."

The line was notable not just because of where it was delivered, but also because it came as the McCain campaign criticized the Los Angeles Times for withholding a video they say "could provide a clearer link between Barack Obama and Rashid Khalid," a Palestinian activist.

The campaign denied that had any role, and, in fact, Biden has defended Obama's record on Israel in previous South Florida stops.

Biden also placed new emphasis on Obama's plans for seniors and retirees, wondering along with the crowd of 2,000 what would have happened to Social Security if "Bush and McCain had succeeded" in privatization.

"Here's what Barack and I believe. We believe there should be no privatization of Social Security. No raising of the retirement age. And we believe ... there should be no income taxes for seniors for who have an income of less than $50,000 a year," Biden said.

The Delaware senator spoke from a podium above the left field grass at Roger Dean Stadium, where the St. Louis Cardinals and Florida Marlins train in the baseball pre-season. Six days before election day, Biden said that "spring training's over," and urged the audience to take advantage of early voting.

"I used to have a grandpop, when I'd leave the house he'd say, Joey, keep the faith," Biden said. "And my grandmother and now my mother would say, no, spread it. Well, we need some help spreading the faith, folks."

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

TOLEDO, OH -- Sarah Palin reframed her calls today for energy independence, suggesting investments in new domestic technologies are needed to reduce reliance on foreign countries that are "using energy as a weapon."

"In the worst cases, some of the most, the world's most oil-rich nations are also the most oppressive societies," she said in a policy address at Xunlight Corporation, which produces solar panels. "And whether we like it or not, the money we pay, U.S. dollars, going to pay for their oil only makes them more powerful and more oppressive."

She said oil wealth has allowed undemocratic countries to "crush dissent and to subjugate women, to oppress the people who live in these countries."

Palin has advocated for energy independence often on the campaign trail, most notably in her mantra to "drill, baby, drill, and mine, baby, mine." She comes to the issue with personal experience and spent considerable time outlining her work securing a gas pipeline in Alaska. In doing so, she knocked oil companies - singling out ExxonMobil - that she said are responsible for delays.

"They should have been competing to invest in a new means of delivering their product to market," Palin said. "They should have been competing for the right to tap into the hungry markets, flowing our resources into those hungry markets. And instead, they wanted a higher and higher price than any fair competition would yield, so they wouldn't build the line. They were holding out for more billions of dollars -- in public money."

She also targeted her vice presidential opponent, Joe Biden, who she said voted against Alaska's first pipeline as a freshman senator.

"He kicked his career off, his political career, saying no to this piece of infrastructure up in Alaska that has safely flowed 15 billion barrels of U.S. crude in hungry U.S. markets," she said. "He started his career saying 'no' to that domestic solution, and it's been 'no' ever since."

New Barack Obama spot reminds voters that John McCain said he didn't have the economic expertise and noted subsequently that he'd rely in a running mate who would have that knowledge. "His choice?" it asks in text across the screen. Cue vid of Sarah Palin winking at the camera. Running in key states.

New John McCain ad to be televised on national broadcast channels says Barack Obama doesn't have the experience necessary to be president. Offspring of earlier spots accusing Obama of being all fluff no substance.

Script: "Behind the fancy speeches, grand promises and TV special, lies the truth: With crises at home and abroad, Barack Obama lacks the experience America needs. And it shows. His response to our economic crisis is to spend and tax our economy deeper into recession. The fact is Barack Obama's not ready yet."

Obama/Biden: 49%
McCain/Palin: 42%
Undec 6%

-- In the battleground states (CO, OH, MI, NH, NM, FL, VA, WI, NV), Obama has a 17 pt. lead - 54-37%.

-- The number of early/absentee voters continues to tick up. These voters now make up 17% of the LV sample.

-- McCain leads among men by 3 pts. (47-44%), but trails Obama among women voters by 16 pts. (37-53%).

-- Among white women, the two candidates are essentially tied with McCain at 45% and Obama at 46%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/26-28 by FD, surveyed 870 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

CNBC's Bartiromo sat down with John McCain and Sarah Palin 10/28.

Bartiromo: "What is wrong with the redistribution of wealth? How are you going to help the people on the bottom of the income scale?"

McCain: "Well, obviously that's been tried. That is a bold left-wing liberal view of how you help people in -- they've tried it in other countries. America -- look, you don't take money from one group and give it to another. You let people have the ability to accumulate wealth, create jobs, create opportunities."

Palin: "Instead of ... spreading that income according to a politician's priorities, let's do what John McCain has been saying, let's spread opportunity so that people like 'Joe the Plumber' and others can create more jobs, they can hire more people. ... We can be compassionate and we can be generous with others without government mandating where those dollars should go to."

After the jump, more McCain, Obama's half-hour ad and Madeleine Albright sets the record straight.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

HARRISONBURG, VA – Barack Obama made a reference to the much-talked about idea of an “October Surprise’ -- a late-breaking story that can shake up the presidential race in the final days. He attached the term to comments a John McCain advisor made about the Republican’s health care plan.

McCain would offer families a $5,000 tax credit to buy health care coverage and would tax health care benefits provided by employers. Obama said the average family plan costs $12,000 and that independent studies have shown at least 20 million Americans would lose their employer-based insurance under McCain's plan.

"Sen. McCain doesn’t like to talk about this plan all that much, but this morning, we were offered a stunning bit of straight talk – an October surprise – from his top economic advisor, who actually said that the health insurance people currently get from their employer is – and I quote – 'way better' than the health care they'd be getting get if John McCain were President," he said during a speech at James Madison University. "Now, this is the point I’ve been making since Sen. McCain unveiled his plan. It took until the last seven days of this election for his campaign to finally admit the truth. But better late than never."

The Democratic nominee was referring to comments McCain Senior Economic Policy Adviser advisor Doug Holtz Eakin made to CNNMoney in response to criticism – from Obama and others – that the Arizona senator’s plan to provide families with tax credits to buy coverage would result in young, healthy workers leaving their company-sponsored plans, saddling employers with less healthy workers and eventually leading them to to stop offering coverage. Holtz Eakin said younger, healthier workers would not choose the tax credit over their company plans.

"Why would they leave?" asked Holtz-Eakin said. "What they are getting from their employer is way better than what they could get with the credit."

The McCain campaign said Obama was misrepresenting Holtz Eakin's remarks

New Barack Obama ad running in key states.

Markets in turmoil ... wages declining ... one million homes in foreclosure ... food and gas prices soaring.

Obama: "For too many, the American dream is fading. The middle class is struggling. We simply can’t afford more of the same. We need a new direction. Now. And that’s why I’m running for president."

Note final photo of Obama. In.front.of.the.White.House.

Barack Obama's campaign issued a statement on behalf of the candidate this afternoon about the verdict in the Ted Stevens case:

“Yesterday’s ruling wasn’t just a verdict on Senator Stevens – but on the broken politics that has infected Washington for decades. It’s time to put an end to the corruption and influence-peddling, restore openness and accountability, and finally put government back in the hands of the people it serves. Senator Stevens should step down.

“But Stevens' resignation won’t solve anything on its own. It’s clear that if we’re going to put the economy back on track and provide relief to working Americans, we’re going to have to change the way that Washington works. That’s why I’m running for president."

The day after Alaska GOP Sen. Ted Stevens' conviction on seven corruption charges, national reporting has focused on what, if any, effect the case will have on Stevens' reelection and -- by extension -- the Democrats' chance to secure a filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. In AK, however, the local press is documenting the story's more personal angle. Voters across the political spectrum expressed sadness and disappointment about the fate of "Uncle Ted." Stevens' earmarking ability is the stuff of legend in the Senate and all that pork made for a grateful constituency that's not ready to gladly send him off on an ice floe.

The Alaska Public Radio Network tells the story of how one Anchorage resident took the news. APRN reporter Ellen Lockyer told local Robin Dillard of the conviction -- which came at noon Alaska time -- while she was out walking her dog. Her reaction:

Dillard: "Oh, no...he has? [I feel] really sad. Yeah, I liked the man. I don't think they should do anything to a man of his age and his stature in Alaska.

The Anchorage Daily News caught up with workers at Anchorage's Dimond Center Mall. Their reaction to the verdict:

Clarice Hardy: "I’m actually kind of glad they convicted him because it serves him right. ... I was not planning to vote for him, so I’m kind of excited now."

Marty King: "It doesn’t change my opinion of him. I still have a lot of respect for what he’s done for the state."

In the island port town of Kodiak, independent voter Jessica Wolf found out about the Stevens conviction from an APRN reporter while she was eating lunch. Wolf said she had already cast a ballot early, and she backed Stevens, despite voting for Dems for other offices. She said she didn't regret her vote for the AK senator:

Wolf: "In the whole scheme of things, no I don't think [Stevens' crime] was [that serious]. $250,000 over a lifetime is nothing. I figure they're stealing that much and more every day in Washington."

What should happen next to Stevens? His Democratic opponent in the Senate race hasn't called for him to resign. And even ex-GOP state Rep/ex-Palin opponent/'08 liberal political blogger Andrew Halcro isn't calling for Stevens' resignation the way media and pundits "in the lower 48" have. From his blog:

I for one have given Senator Stevens the benefit of the doubt, but it's time to acept the fact that a jury of twelve, took less than four hours after a new juror was seated to find Stevens guilty on all seven counts ... It is a tragic way for the 40 year political career of man who has done so much for Alaska to end, however the Republic must roll on.

But APRN captured a conversation between two Anchorage men that might illustrate well that Alaskans are torn about the court's ruling and Stevens' actions. From the convo between Dan S. and Burt S., captured by APRN's Lockyer:

Dan S.: "I think Stevens is all about himself now. You know just like that commercial says -- "

Burt S.: "He cares about the people, though -- "

Dan: "No, No. .. He's worried about himself now. I mean he just got convicted on seven felony counts -- "

Burt: "-- He did do a lot for Alaska, though."

Dan: "Yeah, but his time is over now -- it's time for a change."

Burt: "Yeah, it's time to move on."

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

After the jump, a White House memo issued today outlining the administration's preparations for transition.

Participating in the Transition Coordinating Council, which is managing the effort:

Andy Card, chief of staff to President Bush and director of the 1992 Bush/Clinton transition

Mack McLarty, chief of staff to President Clinton

Jennifer Dorn, National Academy of Public Administration

Norm Ornstein, AEI

Max Stier, Partnership for Public Service

Read on.

John McCain's camp launched a new TV ad in "key FL markets" that says Barack Obama is minimizing Iran's threat to eliminate Israel.

Narrator: "Obama says Iran is a 'tiny' country, 'doesn't pose a serious threat.' Terrorism, destroying Israel, those aren't 'serious threats?' Obama -- dangerously unprepared to be president."

A naked appeal to Jewish voters ...

With 41 new polls released in 26 different states since the 10/24 update, Barack Obama leads John McCain in the Hotline's Electoral College projection 340 EVs to 157 EVs, with 41 EV as toss-up. Obama has 268 solid EVs, while McCain holds 132 solid EVs. On 10/24, Obama led McCain overall 320 EVs to 215 EVs (with 3 toss-up EVs from ND), and 266 to 128 among solid EVs.

Since the previous update, Obama added CO and NH to his solid total, but lost IN to toss-up. This net gain of 2 solid EVs leaves him at 268 solid EVs, just 2 EVs shy of the 270 necessary. Although the most recent IN poll is not tied, its two most recent surveys were fielded concurrently among identical samples. These polls show contrasting results, and we have consequently classified IN's 11 EVs as toss-up.

A tied FL poll, meanwhile, moved its 27 EVs to toss-up as well. Along with IN and ND (3 EVs), this leaves 41 total toss-up EVs. Previously, FL had rested as lean McCain along with MO (now lean Obama), OH (also now lean Obama), LA (now solid McCain) and WV (also now solid McCain). The only state left in lean McCain from last week is GA. The GOP nominee's home state of AZ, however, moved to lean with three new surveys out showing him ahead within the margin of error.

There are 26 new battleground state polls in today's update; Obama leads in 20, including nine beyond the margin of error. McCain leads in five, including a statistically significant lead in WV, which moved that swing state to his solid EV total.

The chart available after the jump reflects all state polls conducted fully since the conclusion of the GOP convo on 9/4. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(CARRIE DINDINO)

It seems some saw ambiguity in Sarah Palin's call yesterday for a guilty Sen. Ted Stevens (R) to do "what is right" for the people of Alaska. After some reports indicated that perhaps Palin was not on the same page as John McCain, who said plainly that Stevens should step down, the two GOP candidates gave a joint interview to CNBC's Maria Bartiromo this morning during which the GOP veep nom made her views clear.

Portions of the interview aired live, but Palin's response to a question about Stevens was taped and will air later this afternoon.

Per the Palin camp, here's the exchange about Stevens:

BARTIROMO: "...of Ted Stevens. We've got, obviously, one of the big stories of the day."

PALIN: "Ted Stevens, you know, a sad day for Alaska yesterday when he was found guilty of seven felonies. But -- and now he needs to do the right thing, and the right thing is -- as he's proclaiming his innocence and proclaiming, too, that he will go through the appellate process, OK, then he needs to step aside and allow our state to elect someone who will be supportive of those ideals of America: the free enterprise, the missions that we're on, to win the war, those things that have got to take place in order to progress this country. Ted Stevens has got to play a very statesmanlike role in this now."

(SEAN J. MILLER)

For those who might have forgotten, Barack Obama will speak to the American public tomorrow night during a 30-minute address telecast across the nets. The campaign will not release a clip in advance, reports NBC/NJ's Athena Jones, but here's a teaser statement from spokesman Bill Burton:

"The program will share the specifics of Obama’s plans to turn the economy around and get the country back on track. With this historic election only a week away – and John McCain’s angry, desperate attacks mounting by the day – we want to make sure every voter heading into the voting booth knows exactly what Barack Obama would do to bring about fundamental change as president. It’s the same case our campaign is making on the phone, on doorsteps and in our conservations with voters every day. Obama’s will turn the page on George Bush’s failed economic policies and provide the real relief the middle class needs right now."

HERSHEY, PA – After calling Joe Biden the “gift that keeps on giving” last night in Pottsville, John McCain's campaign found another present in something the Dem veep nom said yesterday in an interview with a local Scranton television station.

“Yesterday, right here in Pennsylvania, Senator Biden said tax relief should only go to ‘middle class people -- people making under $150,000 a year,’” McCain said. “You getting an idea of what’s on their mind? Eh? A little sneak peak? It's interesting how their definition of rich has a way of creeping down. At this rate, it won't be long before Senator Obama is right back to his vote that Americans making just 42,000 dollars a year should get a tax increase.”

McCain has pointed out Barack Obama’s shifting tax plan in the past, but the Obama campaign got out ahead of McCain’s comments this morning to say that this is not a change. An Obama campaign spokesman said that his candidate was simply reiterating the structure of their plan.

"As Obama and Biden have always said, under their plan no family making less than $250,000 will see their taxes increase one cent," spokesman Tommy Vietor said in a statement. "And if your family makes less than $200,000 – as 95 percent of workers and their families do – you’ll get a tax cut. Maybe the McCain campaign keeps lying about Obama’s tax plan because with seven days left in this election, voters are rejecting McCain’s plan to give billions more in tax giveaways to big corporations and the wealthiest Americans – but nothing to more than 100 million middle-class families."

The confusion stems from one element of Obama's plan. For those making between $150K a year and $200K a year, Obama's tax credit is phased out, so only families making less than $150K would get the full benefit of the cuts.

While pushing his status as the underdog in his race against Obama, McCain also took a dig at Obama’s prime time address tomorrow eve, which might delay the start of the Phillies/ Tampa Bay Rays World Series face-off.

“My opponent is out working out the details with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid on their plans to raise your taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq,” McCain said, attempting to link Obama to congressional Democrats. “He's measuring the drapes, and he's planned his first address to the nation before the election. By the way, no one will delay the World Series game with an infomercial when I’m president.”

But Democratic groups were also quick to push back against this accusation, reminding reporters that the NFL moved up the time of its season opener last August so it wouldn’t conflict with McCain’s convention speech.

(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)

President Clinton will stump Thursday in OH for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. The former president will hold events in Youngstown and Toledo. His focus? The Democrats' plans to create jobs, cut taxes for the middle class and strengthen the economy, according to the campaign.

OCALA, FL - With one week until Election Day, the usually verbose Joe Biden is doing the unthinkable. He has trimmed his stump speech. Today's -- delivered at Dancing Horses Farm -- was 15 minutes, half its usual length.

"It's great to be here with you all, and in a county that's produced a Triple Crown winner, Affirmed," Biden said. "I think Florida is going to produce another winner here again, because how you go goes the nation in all probability."

Appearing in Marion County, Biden acknowledged that "an awful lot of folks in this area put their faith in George Bush." In 2004, the president carried the county by double digits. "But just as many of those people who put their faith in the Bush policies know that those policies have not worked for Ocala," he said. "And we cannot afford four more years of the same policies they took a shot on four years ago, ladies and gentlemen."

Biden's quick speech included only a brief summary of the Barack Obama-Biden tax plan, one John McCain questioned today because of comments the Dem veep nom made yesterday during a local interview.

"Barack Obama and I recognize that when the American middle class does well, the rich do just fine and the poor do better," Biden said. "We want to rebuild the middle class. And here's what we'll do: cut taxes for working people, cut taxes for small businesses, encourage and lay out a clear plan to end our dependence on foreign oil."

CHESTER, PA – A jeans-clad Barack Obama, speaking on a rainy, windy day outside Philadelphia, said that John McCain is “riding shotgun” with President Bush when it comes to backing economic policies that have hurt working people.

The roughly 27-minute remarks, delivered to an estimated crowd of 9,000 people on a college campus in Delaware County, who cheered as they huddled under umbrellas, was largely a repeat of the speeches the senator gave yesterday in Canton, OH, and Pittsburgh. Part of what his campaign has called his “closing argument,” he portrayed his rival as someone who is out of touch with middle class concerns and whose tax proposals would favor big companies and the wealthy.

“John McCain’s ridden shotgun as George Bush has driven our economy toward a cliff, and now he wants to take the wheel and step on the gas,” he said. “When it comes to the issue of taxes, saying that John McCain is running for a third Bush term isn’t being fair to George Bush. He’s proposing $300 billion in new tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and the biggest corporations. That’s something not even George Bush proposed.”

Obama said even Bush has not proposed giving $700,000 in additional tax cuts to the average Fortune 500 CEO, and the Democratic nominee argued that only McCain has a plan that could eventually raise taxes on middle class families, citing the Republican’s proposal to tax the health care benefits.

The McCain campaign’s response to the speech sought to link Obama to congressional Democrats. McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds wrote that Obama has not articulated any differences with Democrats in Congress.

“When Barack Obama’s running mate cannot distinguish a single difference between their agenda and the priorities of the Democrats who have controlled Congress for two years – that’s not change, that’s tax increases, defense cuts, and surrender on all fronts,” Bounds wrote. “If voters want to fix Washington, they’ll reject Barack Obama’s rubber-stamped agenda for the most unpopular, big-spending Congress in American history.”

Obama, who has been using populist language on the stump in recent weeks to cast himself as a champion for middle and working class Americans, also slammed Wall Street executives after reports that they stand to collect billions in bonuses this year despite the financial crisis.

New John McCain ad running in "key states" says that Barack Obama is your choice if you want higher taxes and to see your income spread around. McCain, a female narrator says, is the choice of "workin' Joes."

Script after the jump.

Former Sen. Charles McC. Mathias Jr. (R-MD) endorsed Barack Obama today in a Washington Post editorial:

I have known John McCain for many years, even before he was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1982. And like so many other television viewers, I have come to know Barack Obama as he has made his spirited quest for the highest office in the land through this long and unprecedented campaign.

Sens. Obama and McCain have vastly different backgrounds and strikingly different visions of how America should navigate these tumultuous times. For me, the decision on who should be the next president transcends private friendship or political affiliation. My decision is based on the long-range needs of our country and which of these two candidates I feel is better suited to recharge America's economic health, restore its prestige abroad and inspire anew all people who cherish freedom and equality. For me, that person is Barack Obama.

A statement from John McCain about the Ted Stevens guilty verdict. Per his campaign:

"Yesterday, Senator Ted Stevens was found guilty of corruption. It is a sign of the health of our democracy that the people continue to hold their representatives to account for improper or illegal conduct, but this verdict is also a sign of the corruption and insider-dealing that has become so pervasive in our nation's capital.

"It is clear that Senator Stevens has broken his trust with the people and that he should now step down. I hope that my colleagues in the Senate will be spurred by these events to redouble their efforts to end this kind of corruption once and for all."

... heralds the final week of the 2008 presidential campaign.

Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 6%

- Obama leads 50-42% for the third straight day. He also leads Indies 48-36% for the second consecutive day.

- McCain and Obama remain deadlocked 45-45% on who LVs think is more prepared to lead the U.S.

- Obama continues to lead McCain 52-38% on who LVs think "better understands the needs and priorities of people like yourself." With the exception of the survey completed 9/10, the Dem nominee has had a double-digit lead on the question in every Diageo/Hotline tracking poll release.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/25-27 by FD, surveyed 878 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.

For subscribers, look to today's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) being found guilty on all counts was the the talk of the TV:

NBC's P. Williams: "He becomes now the fourth sitting U.S. senator in history to be convicted. And what happens to him now will depend on two things, the Alaska voters and the U.S. Senate. If he is reelected -- and you know well he faces a very tough race up there -- then it would be up to the Senate on whether to expel him because of the felony conviction. ... But the second thing to remember is he's got a very good criminal defense lawyer, Brendan Sullivan, and there are many, many, many grounds for appeal here. The government repeatedly made mistakes during this trial that drew the ire of the federal judge supervising it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/27).

Roll Call's Singer: "[Stevens is] going back to Alaska to try and make the case to Alaskans that he was unfairly prosecuted" ("NewsHour," PBS, 10/27).

CNN's J. King: "In a bad environment for Republicans anyway, they expect to lose at least five Senate seats. Holding onto Alaska was a key for many Republicans into keeping that number from growing to eight or possibly nine Senate seats. Most Republicans you talk to today think because of this verdict, you can now put Alaska in the Democratic pickup column" ("Situation Room," 10/27).

Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook: "For all these Republican incumbents in difficult races, what do they say? Are you going to allow Senator Stevens to be the ranking Republican on the Appropriations Committee? You know, how does Elizabeth Dole answer that question? How does John Sununu answer that question? ... How does Gordon Smith do it? And so it makes it tougher on all of them. Plus ... the chance of Democrats getting up to 60, yes, they're higher today than they were yesterday" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/27).

After the jump, Palin on Obama's half-hour ad and Michelle Obama's first appearance on Leno.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

From the tarmac at Richmond Airport, Sarah Palin issued a statement about the guilty decision in the Ted Stevens corruption case:

"Thanks for your patience there. It's a sad day for Alaska, and a sad day for Senator Stevens and his family. The verdict shines a light though on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state. And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight. And that fight must always move forward regardless of party affiliation or seniority or even past service. And as governor of the state of Alaska, I'll carefully monitor now the situation, and I'll take any appropriate action as needed. In the meantime, I do ask that the people of Alaska join me in respecting the workings of our judicial system, and I'm confident that Senator Stevens, from this point on, will do the right thing for the state of Alaska."

As she climbed the stairs to her plane, she ignored a reporter's question about how she'll vote next week in her state's Senate contest.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll out tonight shows Barack Obama has blown open a strong lead over John McCain, 55% to 39%. Former governor Jeanne Shaheen also has the edge in her second Senate battle against incumbent John Sununu, 49% to 38%.

When UNH surveyed the presidential climate in September, McCain was ahead, 47% to 45%.

Barack Obama’s advertising in seven key swing states -- CO, FL, GA, MO, OH, PA, and VA -- continues to surpass the number of ad units run by John McCain, according to a Nielsen report released tonight.

In CO, FL, GA, MO, OH, PA and VA, Obama placed 155% more ad units (62,022 vs. 24,273) than McCain between Oct. 6 and Oct. 26, 2008. As of Oct. 22, Obama had placed 150% more ad units (53,049 vs. 21,106) than McCain in those key battleground states.

Obama’s advertising continues to be heaviest in FL, where he ran 18,909 ads between Oct. 6 and Oct. 26, outpacing McCain’s 5,702 ads by 232%.

In recent days, McCain has closed the gap slightly, boosting his ad units by 22% in Florida – up from 4, 662 units as of Oct. 22. In comparison, Obama increased his ad units in the state by just 19% between Oct. 22 and 26.

(Note: This data includes national and local ads seen in these states, as well as syndicated advertising. Local cable ads are not included.)

Without a doubt, it seems hard to believe that even Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) could possibly be re-elected a mere 8 days after being convicted of a felony. Sure, in the most recent round of pre-conviction polling, Stevens trailed Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) by just one or two points. But let's remember that the first set of polls taken immediately following Stevens' indictment showed him losing by 20 points or so. A similar dip is almost certain to occur again... but with only 7 days to campaign, he'll have almost no time to claw his way back from electoral oblivion.

Clearly, any betting man or woman would be well-advised to place a lot of money on Begich right now. But if GOPers have any hope to retain this seat, here are some possible hail-mary strategies for Stevens:

AK Sen. Ted Stevens found guilty on all counts.

The AP reports that Stevens was found guilty of "lying about free home renovations and other gifts he received from a wealthy oil contractor."

The verdict "throws the upcoming election into disarray." "Stevens is fighting off a challenge from Democrat Mark Begich and must now either drop out or continue campaigning as a convicted felon."

CANTON, OH – In a rousing speech his campaign billed as his “closing argument,” Barack Obama laid out the case for electing him over his rival and returned to a theme that was a central part of his early campaign: hope.

The roughly 33-minute speech repeated well-rehearsed lines and themes from the campaign trail in recent weeks, but rather than sharp hits on John McCain, sparked by the news of the day, Obama spelled out the contrasts between them in more general terms, especially on tax policy. Obama hailed McCain for his service – a line that has been a part of his remarks intermittently throughout the campaign but that has been missing in the past few weeks – but said he electing him would mean a continuation of the failed economic policies of President Bush.

Speaking before an audience of about 5,000 in a hard-hit area of a state that has suffered with one of the highest jobless rates in the nation, Obama portrayed himself as a champion of the middle class and someone who would give tax breaks to working people, not just the wealthy and big corporations, as he said McCain would.

Obama, who spoke with the help of a teleprompter – a common sight at events in recent weeks -- stressed the themes of hope, unity and a new kind of politics more than he has in recent weeks. He argued that the size of the country's challenges, economic and otherwise, had outgrown the “smallness of our politics” and that to resolve the economic crisis the nation must move beyond the ideological debates that divide right and left.

“In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, and city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope,” he said. “As I’ve said from the day we began this journey all those months ago, the change we need isn’t just about new programs and policies. It’s about a new attitude. It’s about new politics – a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another.”

It was the Democratic nominee's first trip to Canton -- in Stark County, which John Kerry won by just over 3,100 votes in 2004 -- and his eleventh trip to this battleground state since clinching the nomination in June, according to his campaign.

The senator reminisced about the long road to get to this point, saying the pundits and the polls had not given him much of a chance. He spoke about his agenda for energy, health care, education and ending the war in Iraq, and he said that confronting the nation's challenges would not be easy and would require Washington tamp down on spending. He did not specify which parts of his agenda might have to be scaled back.

Obama closed his remarks with a long refrain on hope, this time tying it to the American story. He said it was hope that had led parents to work hard to make it possible for their children to go to college, immigrants to travel to America to carve out a better life and that led people fighting for the right to vote "to cry out, 'It may look dark tonight, but if I hold on to hope, tomorrow will be brighter.'”

"That’s what this election is about," he said as the audience rose to its feet. "That is the choice we face right now."

But he reminded his supporters the election is not over.

"We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does depend on it this week," he said. "In one week, we can choose an economy that rewards work and creates new jobs and fuels prosperity from the bottom up. In one week, we can choose hope over fear and unity over division, the promise of change over the power of the status quo."

The presidential hopeful's last words to the crowd before departing for what his campaign expects will be one last trip to Pennsylvania were "Let’s get to work.”

(NBC/NJ's ATHENA JONES)

LEESBURG, VA - For days Sarah Palin has been speaking of "Tito the Builder" as another embodiment of a small business owner seeking lower taxes; another "Joe the Plumber." On Monday, Tito Munoz spoke for himself.

Munoz - dressed in an orange reflector jacket and yellow construction hardhat filled with Republican campaign stickers - welcomed Palin to Virginia Monday with a message of free enterprise and hard work.

"Everything we stand for is in danger by higher taxes and less freedom," Munoz told an enthusiastic crowd at JR's Festival Lakes, who frequently chanted his name. "Everything we stand for is made stronger by people like you, like John McCain and Sarah Palin."

For her part, Palin noted the name Tito has not been mentioned this often since the heyday of the Jackson Five. And she said the Columbian immigrant was unhappy with the way Joe Wurzelbacher had been treated after he questioned Obama at a Toledo, Ohio, rally earlier this month.

"Tito wants to know, and I quote, he asked, he says, 'Why the heck are you going after Joe The Plumber,'" Palin said. "'Joe The Plumber has an idea. He has a future. He wants to be something else. Why is that so wrong?''

Palin reiterated the message to small business owners she has said daily on the trail, suggesting Obama's tax plans would hurt small businesses and make it harder for them to hire new employees.

"Tito loves this country, and Tito isn't the only McCain supporter who feels that way," she said. "In fact, I know that we have a lot of small business owners here with us today, and they feel just like Tito does."

Palin also said the McCain administration would lower the nation's business taxes, which are the second highest in the world.

The crowd in Leesburg was creative, inaugurating several new slogans, including "I am Joe" and "Vote McCain, use your brain." When Palin began speaking of her aim to help families with children with special needs, the audience chanted, "Bless your heart."

The stop in Leesburg is one of three rallies Palin will hold in today in this battleground. The statewide tour comes as the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll finds Obama with an eight-point lead in the traditionally red state.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports that John McCain met in Cleveland this morning with a panel of his economic advisors this morning and then gave a public statement reiterating his proposals and hitting Barack Obama and the Democrats for being "dangerous" for the nation's fiscal security.

A list of participants

-- John Taylor, former undersecretary of treasury and econ professor at Stanford

-- Masse Villareal, local business owner

-- Meg Whitman, former CEO Ebay

-- former MA Gov. Mitt Romney

-- Lou Anne Reger, local business owner

-- David Farr, runs Emerson Electric

-- Jack Kemp, 1996 GOP veep contender

-- MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty

-- Michael Steele, former MD lt. gov, head of GOPAC

And here's McCain today commenting about the ramifications of an-all Democrat controlled WH and Congress:

"Now this election comes down to how you want your hard earned money spent. Do you want to keep it and invest it in your future, or have it taken by the most liberal person to ever run for the presidency and the Democratic leaders, the most liberal, who have been running Congress for the past two years -- Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid? You know, my friends, this is a dangerous threesome. They believe, they believe, that $1 trillion of rescue financing is not enough and have already proposed another $300 billion spending spree they are calling a stimulus plan. I would rather give the great American middle class additional tax cuts and let you keep that money invest it in your future."

Obama/Biden: 50%
McCain/Palin: 42%
Undec: 5%

--For the first time ever McCain and Obama are tied on the question of who's more prepared to lead. A week ago (10/20), McCain was ahead on this question by 8 pts.

--Congressional Democrats have expanded their lead over Republicans on the generic ballot question, with Democrats now up by 10 pts. 47-37%. On 10/20, Democrats had a 5 pt. lead.

--The number of voters who say they've cast early ballots continues to rise with 15% of the sample now saying they have already voted.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/24-26 by FD, surveyed 879 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.

(AMY WALTER)

Gov. Sarah Palin's medical information will be released this week, a campaign aide confirmed. It is unclear if the campaign will release her full medical records; the aide described it as information about her medical history.

Palin would be the last of the four major candidates to provide her medical information for review. She told NBC's Brian Williams last week that she did not oppose the release and suggested she was in good health.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

Barack Obama will make what the campaign is calling a "closing address" today in Canton, OH, in which he'll make the pitch that his GOP rival has backed most of the failed policies of the current administration:

"Senator McCain has served this country honorably. And he can point to a few moments over the past eight years where he has broken from George Bush – on torture, for example. He deserves credit for that. But when it comes to the economy – when it comes to the central issue of this election – the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way. Voting for the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy that he once opposed. Voting for the Bush budgets that spent us into debt. Calling for less regulation twenty-one times just this year. Those are the facts.

"And now, after twenty-one months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he’d do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy. Senator McCain says that we can’t spend the next four years waiting for our luck to change, but you understand that the biggest gamble we can take is embracing the same old Bush-McCain policies that have failed us for the last eight years."

Additional excerpts from the speech, set to be delivered midday, available after the jump.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

John McCain sat down with NBC's Brokaw in Waterloo, IA.

Brokaw: "For the first time in nine months, our exclusive guest, Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain returns to 'Meet the Press.'"

McCain: "I noticed you mentioned, nine months. I think I still have been more appearances on 'Meet the Press' than anybody else."

Brokaw: "I think that's true, except maybe Bob Dole's probably got a few more than you. But he's got a few years on you."

Brokaw, on polls showing a widening lead for Barack Obama: "I know you're a film buff, so let me begin with a film metaphor. Do you feel more like Kevin Costner in the 'Field of Dreams,' or like George Clooney at the tiller of the ship in 'A Perfect Storm'?"

McCain: "I think that I could draw my own, and I'd have to think of it, maybe 'The Gipper.' I feel like Knute Rockne at halftime when he said, 'You go out there and get one for the Gipper.' And look, those polls have been consistently shown me much further behind than we actually are. It all depends on the voter turnout model."

More after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 6%

- Let's Agree To Agree. In addition to leading 50-42% overall, Obama also leads men 50-42% and women 50-42%.

- Preparation O. Obama has nearly closed the gap on who LVs think is most prepared to lead the nation. 46% of LVs now say McCain vs. 44% for Obama. McCain's 2% margin is his smallest advantage ever on the question and a noticeable decline from his 11% lead one month ago, in the survey completed 9/25.

- My Fav Flavor, Not Cherry Red. In general, LVs hold far more favorable views of the Dem candidates than they do the GOPers. Obama has a net fav rating of +19%, while McCain has a +9% mark. Biden meanwhile gets a +23% rating, while Palin is at +3%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/23-25 by FD, surveyed 878 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 42%D, 37%R, 18%I.

For subscribers, look to Monday's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

With reports out today from Politico and others that all's not well between the John McCain and Sarah Palin camps and that Palin is going "rogue" because she's frustrated with how she's been managed, here's one sign that the Alaska governor is pondering her future fortunes.

Stumping in Iowa today, she broke with McCain on ethanol. He has never supported subsidies. But here's Palin:

Her full quote, per NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger:

"Now, that is nonsense, because we have the domestic solutions here, and John and I will adopt the all-of-the-above approach to meet America's great energy challenges.Yes. Those hundreds of billions of dollars being re-circulated here in America, that means harnessing alternative sources like the wind, and the solar and the bio mass and the geothermal and the ethanol, and we'll develop clean coal technology. And we'll drill for the billions of barrels of oil that we have right now warehoused underground included our resources offshore. We will drill here and drill now, and now's when you chant, 'Drill, baby, drill.'"

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

New Republican National Committee ad out today asks if Barack Obama has the experience to guide the nation through this latest "storm." Does not use the word economy, however, or financial or fiscal or market. The spot will run in "major markets in target states."

Narrator: "We choose Presidents to lead us through uncertain times. Rely on their background and experience to guide us. Some now say this storm cannot get worse. Our nation is so off course that Barack Obama’s quick rise to power and inexperience should not matter. But what if the storm does get worse? With someone who’s untested at the helm."

A new two-minute Barack Obama post will air in key states starting tomorrow. Asks voters if they're better off now than they were four years ago.

Independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader and Constitution Party nominee Chuck Baldwin faced off last week for the campaign's only third party debate. Hotline's Evan McMorris-Santoro ventured to the debate. He was joined by freelance photog Ritchie Rozzelle.

Click here for a photo essay of the action.

Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 43%
Undec 5%

- Meet The New Boss. Today's Diageo/Hotline matchup is identical to yesterday's release. The nat'l head-to-head remains Obama 50%, McCain 43% with 5% undec.

- Get Back. After McCain made some gains this week among men, Obama is back on top. The Dem nominee now leads men by 4%, not far off his 2% margin one week ago (in the surveyed completed 10/17). Among women, Obama maintains last week's double-digit lead.

- 7:5 & Pick'ens. The IL Sen. has opened up a sizeable lead on who would best manage U.S. energy policies. Obama leads 51-36%; one week ago, he led 45-40%. Obama's 15% margin is his largest lead on energy since the survey completed 10/10.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/22-24 by FD, surveyed 869 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.

For subscribers, look to Monday's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Circulated this afternoon to reporters:

TO: Interested Parties
FR: Jon Carson, Obama-Biden Campaign Field Director
RE: State of the early vote
DA: October 24, 2008

According to information from Secretaries of State from all over the country, Democrats are voting early at significantly higher rates than Republicans compared to 2004 and new and sporadic voting Democrats are voting early at higher rates than new or sporadic voting Republicans.

Below is the data on early voting I provided on the conference call earlier this afternoon.

Democrats are voting early at significantly higher rates than Republicans compared to 2004:

With 11 days to go, Barack Obama's campaign is feeling good about its position in several of the big battleground states, due to the strength of their ground operations, enthusiasm among supporters and early voting data, campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters on a conference call this afternoon.

Plouffe said the campaign had a strong base of support in Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia He said the fact that Obama’s position had strengthened in Virginia and Colorado was “one of more the significant moments in the election" and that when it came to states President Bush won in 2004, the campaign was playing more offense than defense.

Plouffe said the campaign had seen progress in Nevada, Florida and Ohio, though the race in the states would be very competitive and very close.

“Our whole strategy has been predicated on the fact that these battleground states are going to be decided very narrowly, so that’s what we’re preparing for, and don’t pay too much attention to polling right now,” Plouffe said. “We assume that there’s gonna be some tightening, and we assume that some of these states are gonna be decided narrowly. So that’s the kind of operation we’ve built in these states is an operation that could help us win a very close election.”

He said there was a pathway to win in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and West Virginia – a state he called a jump ball – but that the races would be very close and the likelihood they would win all is low. He stressed that campaigning in Indiana and North Carolina had forced McCain to go on the defensive by spending a lot of time and money there.

Plouffe said the focus on the economy was helping Obama in Ohio, where he argued McCain had a big burden because he would have to exceed Bush’s turnout numbers by a significant margin, and that by Monday in Florida, early voting numbers among Democrats could help the campaign erase the advantage Republicans have shown with absentees.

“So the fact is we think we might head into the election with some margin already in the bank which is unusual for a Democrat” in Florida, he said.

Also on the call were national field director Jon Carson and battleground state director Jen O’Malley, who discussed early voting patterns among Democrats and voter contact and ground organization in the battlegrounds.

Per The Washington Post's Bob Barnes:

We waited outside the hotel from 6:30 until 8:05, when we made the uneventful 10-minute drive to Toot's apartment building, at the busy intersection of Beretania and Punahou. Obama went to underground parking, and your pool did not actually see him the entire time. There were only a few people in the park across the street, mostly news folks.

We returned to our posts on the open-air lobby of the building and remain waiting further developments.

Don't wait for the punch line. ...

Check out the former POTUS and a gaggle of German au pairs. Apparently, the Chappaqua Starbucks is a happening spot.

We didn't want to hit the weekend without passing along a few polls that just missed our HRH deadline. Both surveys show vulnerable incumbents losing ground just 11 days before the general.

In MN-06, a week's worth of negative headlines surrounding Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R) controversial comments on MSNBC's "Hardball" has damaged her once-comfortable position. In a new MN Public Radio/Univ. of MN poll, Bachmann trails ex-MN Trans. Sec. Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) 45-43%. The survey of 430 LVs was taken 10/21-23 and had a 4.7% margin of error.

This represents a significant closing of the race, considering a Bachmann poll, conduced the week before the MN Public Radio survey, showed a 44-33% lead for the GOPer. This suggests that Bachmann's support has held steady, while the unknown Tinklenberg surged ahead among soft Dems, GOPers and indies.

Bachmann knows she's in trouble, and has reportedly taped (for air this afternoon) a TV ad apologizing for her comments.

And in the Baton Rouge-centered LA-06, newly-minted Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) has enjoyed some surprising leads in recent Dem polling. But with the presence of a third-party Dem, and a strong GOPer, this GOP-tilting CD was bound to feature a close race on 11/4. But polling for state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) suggests we may already have a nail-biter.

(TIM SAHD)

In the battle of the Democratic ice cream flavors, Biden Thyme v. Baracky Road, see which the Dem veep nom selected ... after the jump.

The pool report from Ellen's Homemade Ice Cream in Charleston, WV, courtesy of ABC News' Jaffe.

With 48 new matchups released in 26 separate states since 10/21, Barack Obama lost ground in today's Electoral College projection. He now leads John McCain 320 EVs to 215 EVs, down from his 10/21 margin of 353 EVs to 182 EVs. ND and its 3 EVs remain toss-up.

Among solid EVs, McCain maintained his 128 EV total while Obama fell below the 270 EV mark. The Dem nominee now has 266 solid EVs compared to his 277 solid EVs on 10/21.

Since the previous update, the coveted prizes of FL and OH moved from lean Obama and solid Obama, respectively, to lean McCain. Meanwhile two lean McCain states moved to Obama's column, MT to lean Obama and IN to solid Obama. The only other changes were VA and WA, which moved within Obama's total -- VA to lean and WA to solid.

Of the 48 new polls, 35 are in Hotline battleground states, including five in the four new battleground states added since the previous edition. The addition of GA, MT, ND and WV brings the number of swing states to 19. Among the 35 battleground surveys, 28 showed Obama with a lead, including 19 by a significant margin. McCain led the other seven, including a WV poll by a solid margin.

The most surveyed state this update was PA with 5 new polls. FL, OH and WI each had four new matchups, and NC, VA and WV each had three.

The chart available after the jump reflects all state polls conducted fully since the conclusion of the GOP convo on 9/4. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(CARRIE DINDINO)

This week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll, conducted by NJ's Jim Barnes and Peter Bell, surveyed those in the know about how undecided voters will vote next month.

Click through to find out if Republicans believe undecideds will break for John McCain over Barack Obama.

The group was also asked about the impact of Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama. Read on.

Former President Clinton sends an email plea to Barack Obama supporters urging them to help Democrats win a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Makes a particular pitch for Al Franken in MN, Bruce Lunsford in KY and Jim Martin in GA.

WJC: "These races are all dead heats, and all in Republican territory that we can capture. And you better believe that Republicans are shifting their resources to deliver their most offensive, over-the-top attacks into these states. It's up to us to make sure Al, Bruce, and Jim have the resources they need to fight back and win. Help give Barack Obama a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate by contributing to Al, Bruce, and Jim's campaigns today."

Full emailed solicitation is available after the jump.

CHARLESTON, WV - It is "crazy" of John McCain to think he can now attack President Bush's policies after championing them for eight years, said Joe Biden during the first general election appearance for Democrats in West Virginia.

"John McCain is now attacking the Bush budget and Bush fiscal policies, which he voted for I might add," Biden said at an outdoor rally this morning. "Folks, this is as crazy as, you know, Butch Cassidy attacking the Sundance Kid. I mean, that's a team."

Biden rattled off a greatest hits of quotes and statistics linking McCain to the unpopular president, including saying that the country "made great economic progress under the Bush administration."

"I know Halloween is coming, but John McCain as a candidate of change? Whoa!" Biden said. "He needs a costume for that. Folks. The American people aren't going to buy this. They're not going to buy this. They're too smart."

The rally, which attracted a few hundred on a chilly morning downtown, is the strongest evidence yet of the Democrats' confidence in expanding the electoral playing field to previously-strong McCain states, though it is likely to be the only appearance by a principal in the Mountain State. But Sen. Jay Rockefeller, who spoke along with Gov. Joe Manchin and senior Sen. Robert Byrd, said he had commissioned an internal poll.

"I think they always under-sample small states," Rockefeller said of other national pollsters. "So I did my own poll, with a guy I've been using since 1972. And that comports with several other polls which I will not mention which shows Barack Obama is behind by one percent in West Virginia!"

Speaking before a crowd that included members of the United Mine Workers, Biden addressed questions about the Democrats' commitment to coal, which grew after a YouTube video captured Biden saying, "We're not supporting clean coal." The Delaware senator, citing his roots in coal country, tried to turn it back against McCain.

In battleground CO today, John McCain cautioned voters that Barack Obama's "massive new tax increase" would hurt small business and jeopardize the livelihood of 16M middle class Americans who work for those small businesses. An Obama presidency will amount to "tax and spend," McCain said. Obama wants to control wealth, not create it, he added. "Redistributing money instead of spreading opportunity."

McCain:

"Senator Obama may say he's trying to soak the rich, but it's the middle class who are going to get put through the wringer, because a lot of his promised tax increase misses the target. To pay for nearly a trillion dollars in new government spending, his tax increase would impact 50 percent of small business income in this country, and the jobs of 16 million middle class Americans who work for those small businesses.

"My opponent's massive new tax increase is exactly the wrong approach in an economic slowdown. Just yesterday, we received news that jobless claims have increased by 15,000. And yet, just this week, Senator Obama announced that his plan would have a work requirement, meaning that those who are unemployed will receive no help under the Obama plan, while Senator Obama's tax increases would put even more people out of work. The answer to a slowing economy is not higher taxes, but that is exactly what is going to happen when the Democrats have total control of Washington. We can't let that happen."

Full remarks available after the jump.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

• Meet the Press hosts John McCain, and a roundtable with Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and NBC pol. dir. Chuck Todd.
• Face the Nation hosts James Rubin, McCain adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin, PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D) and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R).
• This Week hosts Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Rep. Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL).
• Fox News Sunday hosts VA Gov Tim Kaine, ex-PA Gov. Tom Ridge (R), and Karl Rove.
• Late Edition hosts Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), GOP strategist Alex Castellanos, GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, Dem strategist James Carville, CNN's Candy Crowley, CNN's Campbell Brown and CNN's John King.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX)

Planned Parenthood is running a new TV ad in swing states asserting that John McCain's health care plan would be bad for women.

“John McCain’s health care plan can be summed up in three words: worse for women,” said Cecile Richards, president of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, in a statement released to reporters. “What McCain has proposed is a radical health care plan that would deregulate the health care industry, let insurance companies deny coverage for pre-existing conditions, even pregnancy, impose a health care tax, would not guarantee coverage of cancer screenings, and would potentially leave millions of women who receive employer-based health insurance at risk of losing their coverage.”

National Journal writers Will Englund and Kirk Victor examine how Barack Obama and John McCain would govern.

Their pieces, available in the magazine out today, can be read here.

New Barack Obama TV spot asserts that his tax plan will be better for the middle class than John McCain's. Urges voters to go to TaxCutFacts.org to see how they'd fare under each candidate's proposal.

Airing in "key states."

Former MA Gov. William Weld and former MN Gov. Arne H. Carson endorsed Barack Obama this week.

Weld, who will make it official today during an 11 a.m. presser, issued a statement:

Senator Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who will transform our politics and restore America's standing in the world. We need a president who will lead based on our common values and Senator Obama demonstrates an ability to unite and inspire.

Throughout this campaign I've watched his steady leadership through trying times and I'm confident he is the best candidate to move our country forward.

Carson:

The choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as a running mate, and the resultant shallow campaign based on fear and suspicion, looks frighteningly similar to the politics of Karl Rove.

Sen. Barack Obama arrived on the political scene as a wind of freshness, unity and idealism. He saw America as it could be if we reached across all divides. This long, grueling campaign has revealed a remarkably disciplined and focused leader who has the potential to become a truly great president.

Sarah Palin, in Pittsburgh this morning, made a commitment to fully fund the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, known as IDEA:

"One of the most wonderful experiences in this campaign has been to see all the families of children with special needs who come out to rallies and events just like this. We have a bond there. We know that children with special needs inspire a special love. You bring your sons and daughters with you, because you are proud of them, as I am of my son. My little fella sleeps during most of these rallies, even when they get pretty rowdy. He would be amazed to know how many folks come out to see him instead of me."

Her full prepared remarks are available after the jump.

New John McCain ad uses audio of Joe Biden saying the U.S. will be tested in the early months of a Barack Obama administration:

The spot will air in "key states." Script available after the jump.

Obama/Biden 50%

McCain/Palin 43%

Undec 5%

- Obama gained 2% since the previous Diageo/Hotline tracking poll and McCain stayed flat, giving the Dem nominee a 7% overall lead.

- McCain's 8% advantage among men from Thurs.'s release has nearly vanished today; the AZ Sen. now leads men 47-46%. Meanwhile Obama's lead among women remained essentially the same, moving from 17% to 16%.

- Obama leads battleground LVs -- those in CO, FL, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI -- 51-40%. One week ago, in the survey completed 10/16, he led these swing-state voters 54-35%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/21-23 by FD, surveyed 766 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.

For subscribers, look to today's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Last night's coverage featured Sarah Palin's second interview with Sean Hannity, as well as the second part of NBC's Brian Williams' interview with Palin and John McCain. Additionally, ex-Pres. Bush press sec. Scott McClellan endorsed Barack Obama on comedian D.L. Hughley's new CNN show, "D.L. Hughley Breaks the News."

Palin joined Hannity for a special "Hannity & Colmes," broadcast outside Pittsburgh, PA, following a campaign rally. Some highlights:

Hannity: "All right. We've got 12 days to go. Nervous, excited? You want to get to election day?"

Palin: "Very excited. Wishing there were more hours in the day, though, still. Wanting to get out there and speak with more Americans and hear from more of them also. Letting them know, too. You know, there's such a clear choice on November 4. So, wishing that there were more hours in the day but very, very excited and anxious for the 4th."

Hannity: All right. First of all, did you enjoy 'Saturday Night Live?' By the way, they had the highest ratings in 14 years on that program. Did you know that? "

Palin: "Whatever I can do to help, yes. It was fun. It was a lot of fun."

After the jump, more from Hannity's interview with Palin, as well as the second half of Williams' interview with Palin and McCain, and McClellan's Obama endorsement.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX)

WINSTON-SALEM, NC - If the Democrats carry the Tar Heel State this fall, it will be proof of Barack Obama's ability to bring the nation together, Joe Biden argued this afternoon.

"It will send a very important message to the nation that we are no longer just divided blue and red, we are no longer north and south," Biden said on the campus of Wake Forest University. "We [will] once again have a president who's been able to reach out in a general election and unite the country going into his administration."

Bringing the nation together is critical, the Delaware senator said, to move beyond the "product of this politics of division and diversion," as evidenced by the McCain campaign's robo-calls.

"It's done again to appeal to the strategy of Karl Rove and company that has worked so well over the last eight years for apolitical party, but worked so badly for America," he said.

Whoever becomes president will be faced with "a heavy load economically and internationally."

"The decisions are going to be too tough," he said. "But ladies and gentlemen, what have great presidents always done, great presidents have always, always turned difficult circumstances into genuine opportunities for change. ... And they've done it by appealing to our better angels."

Biden today has updated his economic appeals to include criticism of McCain's defense of "President Bush's position on outsourcing jobs."

"We refuse to accept John's assertion that this is, as he recently said, simple, fundamental economics," Biden said. "It is not simple fundamental economics. It is Bush-McCain economics that has got us into this very deep hole."

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

What's going on in Florida? The '08 the state -- as it has in the past -- could be a key to the election of either Barack Obama or John McCain. Polls are tight, and the view from the local press is of a state divided.

The Orlando Sentinel takes a long look at the Tampa Bay area, "a five-county region that is a political barometer for the rest of the state." From the report:

Obama leads by wide margins in Southeast Florida, helped by the large number of Jewish, black and non-Cuban Hispanic voters. McCain is cruising in the northern and southwestern parts of the states -- areas thick with old-school Southern Democrats, military voters and affluent retirees.

...

Central Florida is a political melting pot. It's filled with suburban voters who traditionally have leaned GOP but in recent years have trended more Democratic. The area's large Hispanic population is coveted by both parties.

Even as the national polls have settled, the Tampa area remains up for grabs. According to the Sentinel, "[a] new poll shows McCain leading Obama 47-44 in the Tampa Bay area. In early October, Obama had a 4-percentage-point advantage there."

The change is more important to the race than one might think, reports the Sentinel: "In the past eight years, results from Tampa Bay have predicted final statewide totals within 1 or 2 percentage points."

What's behind the change? According to one pollster, none other than Joe "The Plumber" Wurzelbacher. More from the Sentinel:

Pollster Brad Coker: "McCain may have something to use with the tax question ... For the first time, they've taken advantage of an Obama mistake."

Things may not be as positive for McCain as The Sentinel suggests, however. The Sarasota Herald-Tribune analyzes McCain's upcoming visit to Sarasota, a "longtime GOP stronghold":

Historically, presidential candidates in Florida at this late stage of the campaign are battling for swing voters along the Interstate 4 corridor. But on Thursday, McCain will cap a day of campaigning in Florida with a rally at Robarts Arena, hoping to shore up support in an area that has not voted for a Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.
...

The visit to Sarasota is unusual for a Republican presidential candidate this close to Election Day. In 2000, George W. Bush visited Sarasota in September, more than a month before Election Day. In 2004, Bush did not visit at all, though First Lady Laura Bush visited the week before Election Day.

McCain, who did not campaign in Sarasota during the presidential primary, last stopped in Sarasota in August 2004 to stump for Bush's re-election in an appearance at Robarts Arena.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

New John McCain radio ad running in FL features Gov. Charlie Crist. In the 60-second spot, Crist promises that McCain will lower taxes and "stop wasteful government spending."

Crist: "And John McCain knows that people don't want to 'spread the wealth.' He knows that Congress should let you kekep more of your money, and not take it away."

Listen here. Script available after the jump.

TROY, OH - Sarah Palin urged voters today not to dismiss Joe Biden's critique of the foreign policy climate under a President Obama as just a "rhetorical flourish."

"I question dismissing Joe Biden's moment of truth telling as nothing more than a social embarrassment," Palin said at a rally at Hobart Arena. "Sen. Obama's own running mate, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has informed us that a serious international crisis is certain if Obama is elected and that he is not ready to deal with it, and America doesn't need smooth talk that glosses over that question, we need straight talk that answers it."

Palin used Biden's remarks to suggest Barack Obama is not ready to serve as commander in chief.

"Biden has warned us that Sen. Obama is not ready for the presidency, and in fact, Biden said that he would be honored to run on the ticket with McCain because that way, the country would be better off if McCain were elected," she said. "Now, at least Joe and I have found some common ground, finally."

Palin asked audience members if they would hire John McCain and her to be their commanders in chief.

"We will be there to work for you, the people of America," she said. "So Ohio, will you hire us? Will you send us to Washington to shake things up and clean things up?

"Alright, it's a deal then, we'll take the job," she said to applause and laughter.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger reports that Gov. Sarah Palin will give a policy speech tomorrow highlighting her commitment to families with special needs, according to campaign officials.

It will be Palin's first policy speech, delivered at the Pittsburgh Airport Marriott.

Palin has said that as vice president she would focus on special needs children, along with energy independence and government reform. But she has not specified what policies she would implement if elected. She has said her interest in the issue has been enhanced since the birth of her son, Trig, who is six months old and has Down Syndrome.

The Republican National Committee wasn't Sarah Palin's first clothing benefactor. It seems the state of Alaska reimbursed Palin for a pair of steel-toed boots she bought during her time as chairwoman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

The boots, which cost $133.15 and were purchased from the Army & Navy Store on West Fourth Avenue in Anchorage, were for the "slopes," according to a handwritten note on the receipt. Also scrawled on the receipt: "Reimburse Sarah Palin for purchase of safety equipment."

Palin bought the boots on May 3, 2003 and was reimbursed 11 days later. She served as chairwoman of the commission from February 2003 to January 2004.

On Call's requests for comment from John McCain's campaign and a spokeswoman for the Alaska commission, which regulates the state's oil and gas industry, have not been returned.

McCain's campaign has come under fire this week for allowing the RNC to buy $150K of designer duds for the GOP veep nominee since she was tapped two months ago. And while steel-toed boots certainly aren't the swankiest of attire, Palin's reimbursement with state money raises a question. Did the commission have a policy of compensating its officers for gear? Its chairwoman?

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

UPDATE -- Jody Colombie, special assistant to the commissioners of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, told On Call that Sarah Palin would have been required to wear protective gear to visit the North Slope, necessitating the reimbursement.

"We do not have a policy, meaning the AOGCC, regarding steel toe boots, but when Governor Palin went to the North Slope it is a requirement of the field operators that she must have, or anybody must have, steel toe boots, fire repellent jackets, safety hat, safety glasses," Colombie said. "It’s a requirement for being on the field."

When did Palin make the trip?

"I’m sorry, I can’t even remember," she said. "That was in 2003."

How often did Palin travel to the North Slope?

"I can’t tell you," Colombie said. "I don’t recall. I’m sure she went. I just don’t know what the reason was."

Were other commissioners reimbursed for their attire?

"I believe that they probably had gear" already, she said.

INDIANAPOLIS – During his last campaign event before heading to Hawaii to visit his ailing grandmother, Barack Obama hit his rival for proposing more tax breaks for companies that outsource U.S. jobs.

The rally on the American Legion Mall marked Obama’s seventh trip to this red state during the general election. Obama urged the crowd of 35,000 people to vote early and noted that today is the 25th anniversary of the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut, an attack that killed 241 people, before going on to criticize John McCain’s tax policy.

The senator, who noted that Indiana had lost 4,500 manufacturing jobs in September alone and that new numbers showed more and more Americans were filing for unemployment, has consistently tried to portray himself as a champion of the middle class and to argue that his opponent would continue economic policies that favor the rich.

“Just yesterday, John McCain strongly defended the Bush policy of lavishing tax cuts on corporations including those that ship American jobs overseas,” he said, referring to comments McCain made in a television interview. “He made kind of a strange argument that the best way to stop companies from shipping jobs overseas is to give more tax cuts to companies that are shipping jobs overseas.”

Obama spoke in an incredulous tone: “More tax cuts for jobs outsourcers. That’s what Sen. McCain proposed as his answer to outsourcing. He said that’s – quote – 'simple fundamental economics.' Well, Indiana, my opponent may call that “fundamental economics,” but we know that’s just another name for the Wall Street first, Main Street last. That’s the kind of economic philosophy we’ve had for the past eight years – and that’s fundamentally wrong.”

Obama recognized the sheet metal workers, steelworkers, Teamsters and carpenters in the crowd and gave a shout out to future farmers, noting that the city was hosting the Future Farmers of America convention.

“I want you to know that if I’m elected president, I will fight for you,” he said. “Because America’s farmers are America’s future. It’s time we had a president who understood that.”

Democrats have rarely made Indiana a stop this late in the election season, as IN Sen. Evan Bayh noted, in his brief remarks.

“For the last 50 years at this time of the election season, Indiana has been more or less an afterthought,” Bayh said. “The Republicans have taken us for granted and too often the Democrats have written us off. But not Barack Obama.”

Bayh said Obama had dozens of offices, hundreds of paid staff and volunteers and would fight for the Hoosier State.

(NBC/NJ's ATHENA JONES)

No one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these critical swing states, and Quinnipiac University surveys out today show Barack Obama leading John McCain in all three:

FL: 49% - 44%, compared to 51% - 43% Oct. 1;

OH: Obama up 52% - 38%, Obama's advantage was 50% - 42%;

PA: Obama ahead 53% - 40%, compared to 54% - 39%.

With Democrats buzzing of late that given the nation's economic climate even West Virginia, which has voted reliably Republican in past elections, could back Sen. Barack Obama, the AFL-CIO is dropping its first mailer in the state. The Mountaineer State was not on the group's battleground target list until this week.

The piece will be sent to 30,000 union households. It was mailed to targeted voters in SE Ohio earlier this cycle but was not publicized, according to an AFL-CIO spokesman.

The mailer quotes union member Gary Flynn: ”Thanks to the Bush/McCain financial crisis, my job isn’t safe, my retirement isn’t safe and my family’s future is no longer secure."

Flynn, wearing fire fighter gear, also says: "I know something about risk. I'm not willing to risk my family's economic future on John McCain."

So with an eye on WV, the AFL-CIO is now targeting 21 presidential battlegrounds, by far the broadest program the group has ever run. By comparison, the group worked 13 battlegrounds in 2004.

In 2004, WV voted for President Bush over John Kerry, 56%-43%, and the state backed Bush over Al Gore in 2000, 52%-46%.

But Obama, whom Hillary Clinton trounced by 40 points during the WV primary, and running mate Sen. Joe Biden are making a late-breaking appeal to the state -- or at the very least forcing John McCain's team to play defense there. Biden is scheduled to stump in WV Friday for the first time. Obama last visited May 12.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

John McCain's camp announced today that the senator's election eve soiree will be held at the Arizona Biltmore in Phoenix.

Rocker John Mellencamp, an IN resident, has recorded a radio ad for Barack Obama. Running, of course, in red state IN.

Mellencamp: "I've seen a lot of small towns, but now I'm seeing small towns across America dying. Folks losing their jobs and their homes ... eight years of George Bush have really hurt. And John McCain is just more of the same. Over the last eight years, thousands of Hoosier workers have seen their jobs sent out of this country."

Click above to listen, and the script is available after the jump.

Obama/Biden 48%
McCain/Palin 43%
Undec 6%

- Obama maintained his 5% lead from yesterday's release; he previously led 47-42% with 8% undec.

- The gender gap continues to work in Obama's favor. Among women, Obama holds a 17% lead, while McCain has an 8% lead among men. McCain, however, continues to gain among white men and now holds a 20% advantage.

- McCain now has a higher fav rating than Obama for the first time since 9/14. 57% of LVs view the GOP nominee favorably, while 56% view the Dem nominee favorably. Obama, however, has an 8% lead among those who hold "strongly favorable" views of the candidates. Both McCain and Obama have unfav ratings of 38%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/20-22 by FD, surveyed 769 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 38%R, 17%I.

For subscribers, look to today's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

(AMY WALTER and MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

NBC's Williams sat down with John McCain and Sarah Palin in OH.

Williams: "Before we begin airing the conversation, this moment first from late in our conversation that will make news tonight about the growing requests these days for Sarah Palin to release her medical records."

Williams, to Palin: "Did I hear you just agree to release your medical records?"

Palin: "The medical records, so be it. If that will allow some curiosity seekers, perhaps, to have, oh, one more thing that they can either check the box off that they can find something to criticize, perhaps, or find something to rest them assured over, fine. I'm healthy, happy, had five kids. That's going to be in the medical records. Never been seriously ill or hurt. You'll see that in the medical records, if they're released."

Williams, to McCain: "Did this campaign get out of your control? And here's what I mean. A lot of people who know you well saw you take that microphone from that woman in [Minnesota], and for the first time in a long time they said, 'That's John McCain.'"

McCain: "They either haven't been paying attention or don't want to. In my speech at the convention, I spoke of my admiration for Senator [Barack] Obama. ... I have said continuously my respect for him. But that doesn't change my view that there are stark differences. And when I'm president there is not going to be an international crisis that Senator [Joe] Biden can guarantee."

More after the jump, including what makes McCain and Obama cry.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Defeating Saxby.
President Clinton will appear at a fundraiser Saturday night in Atlanta for GA Senate candidate Jim Martin. General reception minimum contribution is $100. Private reception/photo line minimum contribution is $1,000.

Truckin'.
Former Homeland Security Sec. Tom Ridge is barnstorming the Keystone State for Victory 2000. He'll make stops in Reading, Lancaster, Lebanon, Harrisburg, Carlisle, Chambersburg, Gettysburg and Hanover.

Scrutiny, please.
Joe Biden is getting a pass from the media for saying some pretty wacky stuff, according to the New York Post.

Whoops.
Mary T. Biskup, of Manchester, MO, didn't intend to donate $174K to Barack Obama via credit card ...

Healthy, wealthy and wise?
Sarah Palin tells NBC News that she'll likely release her medical records. Biden released his earlier this week.

The NRCC has decided to cut newly embattled Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN 06) off from any of the cmte's funds, according to Politico. In recent days, she's tried to apologize and explain her 10/17 comments on MSNBC's "Hardball," where she said she was "very concerned" Barack Obama may have "anti-American" views.

Since then, her opponent, ex-MN Trans. Commis. El Tinklenberg (D) has raised over $1.3M, and the DCCC announced that it would add $1M to the race. That means that for the remaining days in this race, there will be wall-to-wall anti-Bachmann TV ads in this CD. Apparently, the NRCC decided it wasn't worth the money to compete with that.

In early Oct., the cmte pulled money out of MN-03, where the GOP has been fighting to hold on to an open seat, and planned to use that money to help shore up Bachmann. Reports said those NRCC ads were to begin airing 10/20, but they never did materialize.

Surveys by both parties, even before the 10/17 fiasco for Bachmann, showed her polling well under 50%. Now that she won't have any NRCC help, she'll be significantly outgunned on TV heading into election day, and faces huge odds in holding on to her GOP-leaning CD.

(TIM SAHD)

John McCain stumped in battleground New Hampshire today, making his pitch to the state that has twice resuscitated his career to make him a Comeback Kid once again.

From the Nashua Telegraph's coverage of the Manchester rally:

A defiant, Republican presidential nominee John McCain said today he’s confident he’ll confound the pollsters and pundits and win New Hampshire’s four electoral votes.

"I’ve learned a lot over the years from the people of this state and I know one thing for certain -- it doesn’t matter what the pundits think or how confident my opponent is," McCain declared.

What's happened to McCain's support in NH? In both '00 and '08, it was the Granite State that catapulted his presidential bid into legitimacy. But this time around, some of his strongest supporters say they have left the McCain fold for good. From the AP's Holly Ramer:

Marge Bonneville voted for John McCain in the 2000 New Hampshire primary and wrote him in on her general election ballot after he lost the Republican nomination to George W. Bush. She did the same four years later, when McCain wasn't even running.

"I look at McCain now and say, 'How can anyone want him as our president?' " said Bonneville, 58, a lifelong Republican from Tilton. This year, she's changed her registration to undeclared and is volunteering for Obama's campaign in New Hampshire.

What's caused the shift for Bonneville and other voters? "State trends." More from the AP:

New Hampshire was the only state to vote for John Kerry in 2004 after voting for Bush in 2000, and Democrats swept both its congressional seats, the governor's office and both houses of the state Legislature in 2006. In the last two years, Democrats have increased their voter rolls by 20 percent, compared to a 6 percent gain by Republicans. The GOP has seen its advantage over Democrats shrink to just under 6,000 votes. Undeclared voters, who were key to McCain's primary wins, have decreased but still outnumber those registered with either party.

The change for McCain in NH might be more summed up by the comment section attached to the New Hampshire Union-Leader's coverage of today's McCain rally. A sample:

John McCain can give an order "never give up," but the fact is a lot of Republicans and Independents have already given up on him. He has run a terrible campaign and his worst decision by far was his VP pick. Today we find out that Sarah Palin has been on a shopping spree with campaign contributions (funded in part with taxpayers' money). In the few weeks she has been campaigning, she has spent $150,000 on clothes and makeup. That's a lot of lipstick! I'm glad to see that McCain is earmarking his campaign money wisely.

- Mark Johnson, Concord

And despite McCain's vow to fight for NH, the Telegraph also reported that the state's Obama-leaning poll numbers might be having an effect on the McCain camp's strategy:

The Telegraph confirmed today that on Tuesday the McCain campaign cut its weekly advertising on WMUR-TV of $100,000 in half for the final two weeks of the campaign.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

RICHMOND, VA -- It seems that Joe the Plumber has earned a permanent spot in 2008 campaign lore. In the final weeks of the 2008 election both candidates are mentioning his name on the stump almost daily. Barack Obama even invoked him during a press conference this morning and added a new quip to his speech at a rally here.

“I had a nice conversation the other day with Joe the plumber,” he told an audience of nearly 20,000 people. “Joe's cool, I got no problems with Joe, all I want to do is give Joe a tax cut, but let's be clear who Sen. McCain's fighting for. He's not fighting for Joe to Plumber; he's fighting for Joe The Hedge Fund Manager. John McCain likes to talk about Joe the Plumber but he's in cahoots with Joe the CEO.”

The rally in this solidly Republican Henrico County, which voted for George W. Bush in the last two elections, marked Obama’s eighth trip to the state during the general election.

Here’s the McCain campaign’s response, from spokesman Tucker Bounds: “Not only was he meeting with rich CEOs yesterday, it’s Barack Obama who has taken more campaign cash from ‘Joe Hedge Fund’ than any other candidate Barack Obama has taken more money from Big Oil, more money from Big Pharma, and more money from Wall Street than John McCain, and if he wins this election Obama is going to take more money from you.”

(NBC/NJ's ATHENA JONES)

For five WH cycles, the Hotline has tracked the ed boards from the 100 most influential papers in the country, with every state having at least one paper represented in our 100. This listing of 100 newspapers we've compiled has been virtually the same for 16 years.

To date, 40 of the 100 papers in the Hotline 100 have endorsed Barack Obama, with just 10 endorsing John McCain.

Nine Bush '04 papers from our Top 100 have endorsed Obama, including the Houston Chronicle, Austin American-Statesman, Denver Post, New York Daily News, New Haven Register, Idaho Statesman, Las Cruces Sun-News, Salt Lake Tribune and Wisconsin State Journal.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer, which did not endorse in '04, came out for Obama, as did the Los Angeles Times, which has not endorsed in more than 30 years. The Chicago Tribune, which in more than 150 years has never picked a Dem, endorsed Obama. McCain, on the other hand, has picked up four papers (not in the Hotline 100) that endorsed Kerry in '04 -- the Newport News Daily Press, the Bradenton Herald, the Jackson Sun (TN) and the Corpus Christi Caller-Times.

After the jump, a comprehensive list and a look back at the newspaper endorsement landscape in 2000, 1996 and 1992.

RICHMOND, VA - During his first full press conference in nearly a month, Barack Obama said he was pleased with President Bush's decision to convene an international meeting to address the global financial crisis.

Obama also responded to questions about his running mate Joe Biden's recent statement that, if elected, the Democrat would be "tested" by an international crisis within the first six months of his presidency. He called Biden's remarks, which fueled criticism from the GOP about Obama's readiness to be commander in chief, "rhetorical flourishes."

The financial meeting -- the kind of summit Obama said he had called for in September -- is set for mid-November, but Obama said he did not want to get ahead of himself by discussing his possible participation.

"Even though the election will have taken place and we will have a new president elect, we are still going to have one president at a time until January 20th when the new president is sworn in, so there is always a transition period – I don’t want to get too much ahead of ourselves," he said, adding that his economic team was in regular contact with Treasury Sec. Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and would continue to closely monitor the situation. "But I don’t want to make commitments at this point in terms of our participation, my participation in something before I’ve even won the election."

As he spoke with reporters, Obama was flanked by 15 advisors who are part of his Senior Working Group on National Security. He convened the group to discuss the challenges the country faces abroad – including the situations in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan and the financial crisis.

The senator delivered brief remarks in which he mentioned Gen. Colin Powell's endorsement -- a point that has become a part of his stump speech and one his campaign is stressing to show he has the faith of an experienced military figure. He argued it was time for a president who understands the intersection between economic fortitude at home and strength abroad.

He said the meeting -- planned "two to three weeks ago" -- was not a response to Biden’s "tested" remarks, which he suggested were "rhetorial flourishes." He said Biden's point was in line with similar comments made by Homeland Security Sec. Michael Chertoff.

"I think the point that Joe made is actually very similar to the one that Sec. Chertoff made today or yesterday, which is that whoever is the next president, is gonna have to deal with a whole host of challenges internationally and that a period of transition in a new administration is always one in which we have to be vigilant," he said. "We have to be careful, we have to be mindful that as we pass the baton in this democracy that others don’t take advantage of it. That is true whether it’s myself or Sen McCain, and it's been (true) throughout our history."

Academy Award-winning director Oliver Stone tells National Journal's Jim Barnes about the making of 'W' and the reasons he took creative license with history.

A snippet:

Q: I'm interested in the device you used in which you used Bush quotes, for want of a better phrase, out of context -- things he actually said, but you transposed them and used them at events other than where they actually happened. What was the purpose there?

Stone: Well, the purpose is dramatization. As you know, these quotes are strung over years, speeches are strung over years, meetings -- there's numerous meetings. As a dramatist, we have to simplify and condense. And I don't think we crossed the line, the spirit of what happened in that administration. The Bush administration speaks for itself. They've said these things, their policies are clear. By way of example, I'm just looking at an article in the Dallas Morning News written by Wayne Slater. Wayne Slater covered Bush, Bush's two campaigns for governor, his administration in Austin and both runs for the presidency, and he co-authored two books on Karl Rove. Anyway, Wayne -- I don't know the man at all, never met him -- he came out Friday and he said -- this is an example -- "It happened, just not exactly as the director portrays. Mr. Bush delivered the words, 'Today we are not so sure who the they are, but we know they're there,' during a campaign stop in early 2000, not the White House three years later." Yes, but the same sentiment prevailed in Bush's mind.

Q: So to you, that makes it fair game to use it that way, because they are the words of the president?

Stone: I'm not writing a biography. I'm not a journalist, never claimed to be. Nor am I a documentarian. We are shaping a pattern that we see repeating in this man's presidency. You could almost describe these eight years as a loop in the sense that the body language, the understanding, the dialogue remains very much the same. The stimulus is different, whether it's the economic debacle or the Iraq war, it doesn't seem to matter on the way he responds to these situations. His speeches are remarkably similar, his delivery of them. So, yes, as a dramatist, we have to make our patterns, and we're only dealing with the first three years of the presidency, as you know, and the march to Iraq. That is the climax, act three.

And this:

Q: What sort of reaction have you had from George Bush and his administration on the movie? And to those who think it's disrespectful that you made it while he's still in office, what do you have to say to that?

Stone: I just don't think the Bush family believes in looking inside themselves, especially George W., talks about psychobabble, so does the father. We've heard Jeb say that it was all hooey. But, you know, you're talking about a family that doesn't have any sense of introspection. I mean, neither Freud nor Darwin seem to apply. So I'm not surprised. But listen, if they would like to screen the film with me, or one of them would, I would be most glad and gracious to do it. I'd go; I'd travel somewhere to show it to them. But it's very hard, I know, to see a movie about yourself.

ABOVE WHITEHOUSE, OH - So what happens when every passenger on a plane looks out the window on the left side of the aircraft?

Flying today from Toledo to Akron, Sarah Palin's campaign plane flew over an image of the GOP veep nom carved into a cornfield. The agricultural expression of affection - ironically dubbed the Whitehouse Corn Maze - have been all over television. But this was the first chance Palin and those traveling with her have had to see it from the skies over this hotly-contested swing state.

Despite an announcement from the captain, everyone didn't get a look during the first pass over. So the plane circled back for a second viewing. We got a good gander at Palin's head, with the words "Sarah America" scripted above.

And, don't worry, we didn't tip over.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

GOFFSTOWN, NH - After nearly a week of dedicating most of his stump speech to Joe the Plumber and Barack Obama's promise to "spread the wealth around," John McCain during a rally this morning shifted his focus to hit Obama harder on his government spending proposals. But before he jumped to the new material, McCain couldn't forget about Joe entirely.

"Every once in a while, my opponent gives us all a little glimpse of what an Obama presidency would be like in the real world," McCain said. "And last week his campaign actually found itself on a detour into the real world -- in the driveway of Joe the Plumber."

Without calling Obama's plan socialist, McCain prompted the crowd to respond as such by saying that "before government can redistribute wealth, it has to confiscate wealth from those who earned it, and whatever the right word is for that way of thinking." To which several members of the audience answered: "socialism."

On government spending, McCain said that his opponent's plan requires "150 billion dollars" in new spending, citing amounts of money that Obama has pledged for education, energy, infrastructure and healthcare.

"Does anyone seriously believe that these trillions of dollars are going to come from only the very highest income earners," McCain asked the crowd of more than 2,000 gathered at Saint Anselm College. "Even his supporters are skeptical. Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia said of these plans, quote, 'There's not enough money to do all this stuff.' An influential newspaper called his claims, quote, 'neither politically nor economically plausible.' That critique came from the editorial board of The New York Times, and when Barack Obama loses them you know he's gone too far."

(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)

New 30-second International Association of Fire Fighters spot hits John McCain's health care plan. It began appearing yesterday in six battleground states: FL, MO, NH, NC, OH and VA. Versions of the ad that will appear in NH and NC link GOP Sens. John Sununu and Elizabeth Dole to McCain.

John McCain is in the Granite State today seeking some of that New Hampshire love that resuscitated his WH bid earlier this year:

"We go back a long way, New Hampshire. I've learned a lot over the years from the people of this state. And I know one thing for certain. It doesn't matter what the pundits think or how confident my opponent is. The people of New Hampshire make their own decisions, and more than once, they've ignored the polls and the pundits, and brought me across the finish line first."

True enough. McCain won the 2000 and 2008 NH primaries, the only non incumbent candidate to win two state contests. But recent polls show Barack Obama has an advantage, and the state's political evolution over the last five years from crusty Republican to Dem-dominated -- Democrats hold both congressional seats and the governor's office, and run the state Senate and House -- gives Obama an underlying advantage.

McCain's prepared remarks are available after the jump.

Barack Obama's campaign is working to raise cash off of this new RNC mailer insinuating that the Dem nom is a terrorist. Campaign Manager David Plouffe sent out a fundraising plea, which links to a donation page with this statement:

"John McCain is trying to win this election by scaring voters with truly vile attacks. With less than two weeks to go, you can provide this campaign with the resources we need to push back in the final stretch. We cannot let McCain take the low road all the way to the White House."

The mail piece says "Terrorists" on the front and reads inside: "Barack Obama. Not Who You Think He Is."

Politico's Jeanne Cummings reported last night that the Republican National Committee has spent beaucoup bucks -- $150K to be precise -- on Sarah Palin's clothing and make-up consultations since she was tapped as the GOP veep nom fewer than two months ago:

According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.

The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August.

John McCain/Palin spokesperson Tracey Schmitt dismissed the Politico story:

"With all of the important issues facing the country right now, it’s remarkable that we’re spending time talking about pantsuits and blouses. It was always the intent that the clothing go to a charitable purpose after the campaign."

There's no doubt that a person catapulted from the State House to the national scene needs some new duds, regardless of gender. And Palin is hardly the first candidate to be dressed to impress the masses. We're all familiar with the controversies over Bill Clinton's and John Edwards' pricey haircuts. Spouses look the part as well (I'll never forget Teresa Heinz Kerry, wearing the swankiest of suits -- Chanel? Armani? -- and those sweeping, colorful shawls as she spooned chili into styrofoam bowls during her husband's NH primary bid).

But Palin is supposed to be the everywoman, the hockey mom. How many hockey moms frequent Saks and Neiman Marcus? Makes us wonder how she feels about arugula.

(JS)

New John McCain ad features Joe the Plumber ... Features Barack Obama saying he wants to "spread the wealth." "Barack Obama. Higher Taxes. More Spending. Not Ready."

Script available after the jump.

Obama/Biden 47%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 8%

- McCain now leads men by 8% -- his largest lead among them in more than a month. In the survey completed 9/19, McCain also led men by 8%.

- Enthusiasm continues to grow among supporters of the GOP ticket. 54% of McCain voters now say they are enthusiastically supporting the AZ Sen., up from 45% one week ago (in the survey completed 10/14). Among Obama supporters, enthusiasm has also climbed, 4% to 69%.

- McCain now carries only 20% of Bush disapprovers; a week ago, he pulled 24% of these McCain Mavericks. Look for more on this Keys To The White House group in today's Latest Edition.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/19-21 by FD, surveyed 782 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 38%R, 17%I.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

In her first interview with CNN, Sarah Palin spoke with Drew Griffin in NV. During the interview, Palin brought up Joe Biden saying Barack Obama will be tested by an int'l crisis within six months. She also apologized for suggesting some parts of America are more patriotic than others.

Griffin: "Governor, if in two weeks, you are not elected ... do you come back at the top of the ticket in 2012?"

Palin: "I'm concerned about and focused on just the next two weeks. ... Thankfully, too, the American public is seeing clearer and clearer what the choices are in these tickets. I think some revelation just occurred, not just with Joe the Plumber, but revelation occurred with Joe Biden's comment the other night that ... he said, Mark my word. There's going to be economic and -- or international crisis, he said, if Barack Obama is elected, because he will be tested. And he said, there are four or five scenarios that will result in an international crisis with this untested presidential candidate in Barack Obama."

More Palin: "I think we need to thank Joe for the warning there. But Joe's words there, I think, can shed some light, too, in terms of the contrast you have on the tickets. John McCain is a tested leader. He has gone through great adversity. He has the scars to prove it. He has shown this true leadership. It hasn't just been all talk. And Joe Biden's comments there about an untested, as he had said in the primary, unprepared candidate to be president, I think, was very telling."

More after the jump, including McCain's PA strategy.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released this evening shows that with two weeks to go until Election Day, Barack Obama now leads John McCain by 10 points among registered voters, 52 to 42 percent, up from 49 to 43 percent two weeks ago.

Other nuggets:

-- Obama leads with independent voters, 49% to 37%, suburban voters, 53% to 41%, Catholics, 50% to 44%, and white women, 49% to 45%.

-- 55% of respondents said Sarah Palin is not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

-- 56% said they are either “optimistic or confident” or “satisfied and hopeful” that Obama would do a good job as president; 44 percent said the same of McCain.

-- Obama has a 39-point advantage over McCain in handling health care, a 21-point edge on improving the economy, a 21-point lead on the mortgage and housing crisis, a 17-point edge on dealing with the Wall Street crisis, a 14-point lead on taxes and a 12-point advantage on energy and the cost of gas.

Click above to read more from NBC News dep. political director Mark Murray's story.

HENDERSON, Nev. - In a shift of focus from recent speeches, Sarah Palin devoted almost her entire talk here Tuesday to women's issues, suggesting Barack Obama is guilty of gender inequality.

Palin said she's hoping to break the glass ceiling and accused Obama of overlooking a woman for a promotion by not choosing Hillary Clinton as his running mate.

"You've got to ask yourself why was Senator Hillary Clinton not even vetted by the Obama campaign?" she said at an outdoor rally outside of Las Vegas. "Why did it take 24 years, an entire generation from the time Geraldine Ferraro made her pioneering bid until the next time that a woman was asked to join a national ticket?"

And she accused Obama of committing gender bias himself by not paying men and women on his Senate staff equally. She said Senate payroll records found women on his staff received 83 cents for every dollar males received.

"Does he think that the women aren't working as hard?" she asked. "Does he think that they are 17 percent less productive? And Barack Obama can't say that this is just the way that its always been done around the Capitol, because I know one senator who actually does pay equal wages for equal work, Sen. John McCain."

John McCain and Sarah Palin issued a statement this afternoon about proposals for a new economic stimulus:

"We are deeply concerned about our nation's economic outlook and will support measures that improve the outlook for American families. This economic crisis has its roots in the housing market and the most effective stimulus will be to reverse the cycle of foreclosure, neighborhood blight, and falling housing values. The American Homeownership Resurgence Plan is the best kind of stimulus.

"The Democrat-controlled Congress will likely propose additional measures. We do not believe that a national crisis should be taken as a license for wasteful spending or earmarked projects. Each new proposal must pass on the grounds that it is timely, effective in supporting business sales and job creation, and consistent with long-term fiscal discipline.

"In the past, raising taxes and cutting off international trade have only served to make hard economic times worse. We oppose harmful attempts to just 'spread the wealth.' Our job-creating economic plan is the best path for the economy and includes the types of policies that the Congress should consider."

GREELEY, CO - Joe Biden demanded today that John McCain's campaign yank its "scurrilous" television ads and robocalls, stressing what he says will be an urgent need to unite the country after Nov. 4, regardless of who wins.

Biden, speaking to a crowd of about 4,000 in a county that George W. Bush carried overwhelmingly in 2004, said that things "are feeling awful good" for the campaign now, but stressed that "polls and endorsements do not determine the outcome of an election."

"Folks, there's still two weeks left. A lot can change," he said. "You know what these guys are gonna do, they're going to throw everything from the kitchen sink to the bathroom sink and everything else they can find at Barack Obama and me between now and then. And we cannot, we cannot, we cannot forego one single solitary vote, ladies and gentlemen."

Biden later referenced an interview McCain conducted this morning during which he defended the campaign's robocalls but also said that they are focusing on the economy. Biden challenged him to back up those words.

"If he's really serious when he said ... that this election is all about the economy, then I say, John, stop your ads, bring down those robocalls," Biden said. "If it's about the economy, argue about the economy. Not about Barack Obama's character. Not about these scurrilous ads."

And striking a more bipartisan tone than in past weeks, Biden said that he and Obama are running because of how "damaging the politics of division has been" in America.

"I know some of you are not going to like it, because some of you may be really, very, very partisan," he said. "But folks, we mean it when we say, America's got to put these divisions behind us. God willing, we're elected, you are going to see a president, a vice president who are going to do everything we can to reach across the aisle."

The stop in Greeley was the first on Biden's two-day bus tour of Colorado, a red state that Democrats are fighting to win. Betsy Markey, the Democratic candidate for Congress in this district, said her party can't take anything for granted, though.

"The Republicans in the past have had a very, very strong, aggressive 72-hour get out the vote program, and I don't think we can underestimate that again," she said. "We just have to continue to work very hard."

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

Third-party advocacy group Free & Equal announced this morning at the National Press Club that it will host a debate between perennial third party candidate Ralph Nader and Constitution Party nominee Chuck Baldwin (aka the man Ron Paul is backing).

The debate will be held at the Mayflower Renaissance Hotel in DC on Thursday, Oct. 24 at 9:00 PM. For tickets, contact Free & Equal.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

A Pew Research Center poll released this p.m. shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 53-39% among LVs; among RVs, it's Obama 52-38%. A month ago, in the survey completed 9/14, Obama and McCain were tied 46-46% among LVs and Obama led RVs 46-44%.

There has also been a change in who RVs feel is more likely to prevail on 11/4. More than three in five RVs (61%) now feel Obama will win the election, while just 17% believe McCain will win. RVs were split 39-39% on the question in the survey released 9/14.

The latest poll was conducted 10/16-19 by PSRA/Abt SRBI and has margins of error +/- 1.9% for RVs and +/- 2.0% for LVs.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Barack Obama's campaign confirmed today that the candidate's Election Night party will be held in Chicago's Grant Park on Hutchinson Field. The open-air venue, named for President Ulysses S. Grant, could host hundreds of thousands.

RENO, NV - Gov. Sarah Palin suggested today that Barack Obama is unprepared to serve as commander in chief, laying out scenarios she said made the country vulnerable to an international crisis under his leadership.

Palin fed off the words of Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, who said Sunday that Obama would be challenged by an international crisis in his first six months of office. During a rally at the Reno Convention Center, Palin listed four scenarios "that would place our country at risk in an Obama administration," including sitting down with dictators and sending American troops to Pakistan over the objections of the country's leader.

"But I guess the looming crisis that most worries the Obama campaign right now is Joe Biden's next speaking engagement," Palin said. "Let's call that crisis scenario number five."

Palin also highlighted Obama's opposition to the surge strategy in Iraq and a reaction of "indecision and moral equivalence" when Russia invaded Georgia earlier this year.

Palin also said that Obama's Pakistan policy advocates "invading the sovereign territory of a troubled partner in the war against terrorism." Palin said last month she would support U.S. forces crossing the border from Afghanistan to Pakistan to prevent terrorism, but the campaign, and Sen. John McCain, later clarified the remarks.

"See, the real problem is that these warnings from Joe Biden are similar to his earlier assessment," Palin said. "It wasn't that long ago that he said Barack Obama wasn't up to the job, he's not ready to be president. He said, I quote, 'the presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training.'"

The McCain campaign worked hard to draw attention to Palin's remarks, alerting television networks beforehand and sending out excerpts as she was speaking. McCain used Biden's comments yesterday to attack Obama.

"The same Joe Biden said he would be honored to run on the ticket with John McCain because, he said, 'the country would be better off with John McCain,'" Palin said. "And finally then, here we have some common ground because I do want a president, too, who spent 22 years in uniform defending our country."

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

Obama/Biden: 47%

McCain/Palin: 41%

Undec 8%

--After opening an 8-10 pt. lead late last week, Obama's lead has narrowed to 6 pts. Obama has a 7 pt. lead (49-42%) in the battleground states.

--McCain has gained 4 pts. among white men since last week (10/14), and now leads Obama among this group 53-36%. Obama's 1pt. lead among white women (44%-43%) is virtually unchanged from last week.

--On the issue of the economy - the #1 concern for 65% of LV's - Obama holds a 14 pt. lead (51-37%).

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/18-20 by FD, surveyed 791 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

(AMY WALTER)

With 28 new WH polls out in 21 different states since the 10/17 Electoral College projection, Barack Obama maintains his commanding overall advantage and now holds more than 270 solid EVs. Obama leads John McCain 353 EVs to 182 EVs with 3 toss-up EVs, slightly down from his Fri. margin of 361 EVs to 177 EVs. Among solid EVs, Obama leads 277 EVs to 128 EVs.

The largest shift in EVs was caused by a new Suffolk Univ. poll which moved OH (20 EVs) from lean Obama to solid Obama. The Dem nominee's net increase among solid states, however, was offset by a Concord Monitor/Research 2000 poll which sent NH (4 EVs) from solid Obama to lean Obama.

Obama also lost two states since the previous update. A new NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll returned WV to lean McCain, and a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll moved ND and its 3 EVs to toss-up. Both had previously rested as lean Obama.

In all, Obama leads nine of the 11 new battleground state polls, including seven beyond the margin of error. McCain meanwhile leads both the remaining swing state polls -- a Suffolk Univ. poll in MO and a NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll in OH -- by just 1%. Once again, the GOP nominee lacks a statistically significant swing state lead; in fact, there is not a single battleground poll showing McCain with a solid lead on the EV chart.

The chart available after the jump reflects all state polls conducted fully since the conclusion of the GOP convo on 9/4. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(CARRIE DINDINO)

BENSALEM, PA - During the first stop of today's three-city tour of the Keystone State, John McCain used Barack Obama's World Series pick this morning to criticize the Democrat's changing messages.

"I heard that Senator Obama was showing some love to the Devil Rays down in Tampa Bay yesterday," McCain said, mistakenly using the team's old name rather than the newly shortened 'Rays.' "Now, I'm not dumb enough to get mixed up in a World Series between swing states, but I think I may have detected a little pattern with Senator Obama. It's pretty simple really. When he's campaigning in Philadelphia, he roots for the Phillies, and when he's campaigning in Tampa Bay, he shows love to the Rays. It's kind of like the way he campaigns on tax cuts, but then votes for tax increases after he's elected."

Speaking to about 1,000 people at TC Millworks outside of Philadelphia, McCain and Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has been accompanying the GOP nominee on the trail, referenced Joe Biden's recent remarks that Obama might face in international crisis in the early months of his administration. They said McCain, unlike his Democratic rival, has been tested.

"There has never been a candidate for president of the United States more tested than John McCain," Graham said in his introduction. "And our enemies know it, so if you're watching this election, and you wish American harm and he gets to be the next commander in chief, you better watch what you do."

"We don't want a President who invites testing from the world at a time when our economy is in crisis and Americans are already fighting in two wars," McCain added during his remarks.

Graham also added another line today about Obama's impressive fundraising numbers, using a line that the McCain campaign lobbed against the resource-rich Mitt Romney campaign during the GOP primaries.

"He's the first person since Watergate to reject public financing, raise $600 million, you can't turn on your TV without some ad, so much of it you don't know where it's coming from," Graham said. As the crowd started cheering Graham stayed on the attack, adding a few more lines to rally them up even more, "That's the kind of change that's gonna ruin America. Don't reward that guy. Tell him you're not gonna buy Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania's not for sale."

(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)

Though John McCain is hammering away at Joe Biden for cautioning that America will be tested by the world in the early months of a Barack Obama administration, the Democratic nominee is keeping his focus on the nation's economic crisis. In Lake Worth, FL, today, Obama hosts a jobs summit with four Democratic governors: Jennifer Granholm of MI, Bill Richardson of NM, Bill Ritter of CO and Ted Strickland of OH. So, he gets the media hit in FL and draws reporters' attention in four vital swing states, too.

Obama's full prepared remarks available after the jump.

In their first joint interview, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton spoke with ABC's McFadden in FL.

McFadden: "What can Hillary Clinton do for you in Florida that you can't do for yourself here?"

Obama: "Hillary, I think, is as effective a spokesperson for the Democratic ideals, which is that everybody gets a fair shot. That's what she's been fighting for. You know, there are some passionate supporters of hers that may still be trying to figure out who to vote for. You know, she's got some great crossover appeal, so for her to take the time to come down, she's been consistent in campaigning down here in Florida for us. I think it's part of the reason why we're doing a little better now than we were just a month ago."

McFadden: "Are we in the real America, the pro-America part of America here in Florida?"

Obama: "I haven't been to a spot yet that's not pro-America. ... Everybody's a patriot, and that's one of the things that I hope we get back to in our politics, if I'm elected president."

After the jump, more from the interview and reaction to Biden's crisis comments.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Fearing that a big Democratic majority will rush "card check" legislation through the Senate next year, the U.S. Chamber today is going up with a new ad, “Meet Bill the Union Boss” in targeted Senate races. According to a Chamber source, that ad is meant to “expose the intimidation and threats used by union leaders to influence voters."

The ad will air key Senate races – notably in Minnesota and Oregon – where the candidates have polar opposite views on the union-supported “card check” legislation.

(NORA McALVANAH)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Per Barack Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs, the candidate will leave the trail for 48 hours later this week to travel to Hawaii to be with his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, who is quite ill. Obama speaks often of his grandmother on the trail. She raised him.

From Gibbs:

"Senator Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has always been one of the most important people in his life. Along with his mother and his grandfather, she raised him in Hawaii from the time he was born until the moment he left for college. As he said at the Democratic Convention, she poured everything she had into him. Recently, his Grandmother has become ill, and in the last few weeks, her health has deteriorated to the point where her situation is very serious. It is for that reason that Senator Obama has decided to change his schedule on Thursday and Friday so that he can see her and spend some time with her. He will be returning the the campaign trail on Saturday."

The presidential campaign this weekend was notable for many events, not least the statements by three GOPers suggesting that portions of the country are at best unreal, at worse, un-American.

First came Sarah Palin's visit to Greensboro, NC. The Washington Post caught Palin at a fundraiser:

Palin also made a point of mentioning that she loved to visit the "pro-America" areas of the country, of which North Carolina is one. No word on which states she views as unpatriotic.

An obvious candidate might be California -- a state Palin has campaigned in -- because, as she told the audience, she and McCain have encountered problems enlisting famous performers in their cause.

"In fact, we were on the bus today, we were making a list of who are some celebrity singers who could come out and help us and gosh, for the life of us, the pickins were slim there," she said. "Who's quasi-conservative out there in the celebrity land?"

Palin didn't make it clear if all of NC counted as pro-American, but McCain/Palin spokesperson Nancy Pfotenhauer suggested on MSNBC 10/18 that all of VA is not. The Richmond Times-Dispatch reported on her comments:

[Pfotenhauer] acknowledged [McCain's] difficulties in Northern Virginia but said the region is not "real Virginia."

"The rest of the state, real Virginia, if you will, I think will be very responsive to Senator McCain's message," Nancy Pfotenhauer said.

Given a chance to retract her statement, Pfotenhauer said she lives in Oakton, in Fairfax County, "but real Virginia I take to be the -- this part of the state that is more Southern in nature, if you will. Northern Virginia is really metro D.C."

Both comments have stirred controversey. Palin's statement in NC led to a series of harsh responses from Dem VP nominee Joe Biden on the trail in the West over the weekend. And over at the decidedly Northern VA-focused blog DCist, Pfotenhauer's take prompted this rebuke:

We'll be the first to admit that densely populated Northern Virginia, a good chunk of which used to be part of the District a long, long time, leans further left than the rest of the state. Both Sen. Jim Webb and Gov. Tim Kaine, two of the state's most recent and high-profile Democrats elected to office, relied heavily on the counties closest to the District. And while Pfotenhauer surely isn't the first person to come up with a division between NoVA and RoVA (rest of Virginia), hers is the most obvious indication that the McCain camp is giving up on the area. How else would one justify accusing tens of thousands of voters of not being real Virginians?

But the biggest local kerfluffle over the GOP's lines highlighting America's differences is currently underway in MN's 6th Congressional District. Incumbent GOP Congresswoman/McCain surrogate Michelle Bachmann, also on MSNBC, was perhaps the most direct in suggesting on 10/17 that there was a "real" difference between McCain and Obama and, presumably, their supporters. Here's a transcript of the comments:

Seemingly within hours, the MN media was knee-deep in controversy that threatens to upend Bachmann's once secure reelection bid. Her opponent, ex-MN transportation commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg raised $640K on the day the interview aired, nearly 10 times his average weekly haul before Bachmann went on 'Hardball'. According to MN Public Radio, the DCCC is buying $1M in ads to run against Bachmann for the rest of the campaign. And, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports, the man Bachmann defeated in the primary is jumping back into the fray as a write-in GOP candidate.

But Bachmann's remarks only served as a reminder of her tendency for foot-in-mouth moments over divisive matters, as Star-Tribune columnist Jill Burcum wrote 10/20:

[T]he Hardball incident is just the latest of (many) headscratching moments brought to you by Bachmann. As a state legislator, she was filmed hiding in the bushes at a rally against her same-sex marriage amendment. She once brought people into the Minnesota Capitol to pray over the desks of lawmakers who opposed her. Highlights of her time in Congress include the uncomfortably long embrace of George W. Bush after a state of the union address. More recently, her opposition to energy-efficient lightbulbs garnered jeers and notoriety.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

Rush Limbaugh today said Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama "was totally about race."

"If Powell had endorsed McCain, you know what would have happened?" Limbaugh said, according to audio of today's show on his site. "Donna Brazile and the other black elites in the Democrat Party would never have forgiven him. This was all about Powell and race. Nothing about the nation and its welfare. He said it's not about race, and I said, 'Okay. Show me all of the inexperienced white liberals you've endorsed.' If it's not about race."

Listen to Limbaugh explain away Powell's decision, trivialize it and him, and ask yourself if he's helping John McCain's cause or hurting the GOP.

Readers?

Former NY Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Randy Scheunemann, foreign policy adviser to John McCain's campaign, pounced this afternoon on Joe Biden's weekend comments that Barack Obama, if elected, will be tested by the world.

During a call with reporters, Giuliani called Biden's comments "extraordinary."

"It has to mean that Joe Biden continues to harbor serious doubts about whether Barack Obama is ready to be commander in chief," said the former GOP presidential candidate.

Scheunemann compared Obama to John F. Kennedy, noting that Kennedy was "ill prepared" for a summit meeting with Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet premier. Construction of the Berlin Wall ensued and, eventually, the nation faced the Cuban Missile Crisis.

"Weakness invites challenge, invites testing, invites attack," Scheunemann said.

Giuliani: "My answer is then let's elect somebody who doesn’t raise that risk."

Per NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli, here's what Biden said, first Saturday in San Francisco and then Sunday during a fundraiser in Seattle:

"Mark my words. Within the next, first six months of this administration, if we win, there going to -- we're going to face a major international challenge. Because they're going to want to test him, just like they did young John Kennedy. They're going to want to test him. And they're going to find out this guy's got steel in his spine."

"Mark my words. Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy. And he’s gonna have to make some really tough - I don’t know what the decision’s gonna be, but I promise you it will occur. As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you it’s gonna happen. I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate. And he’s gonna need help."

Seems unlikely, as the McCain camp suggests, that Biden was actually trying to convey that he is concerned about Obama's readiness to handle a crisis. After all, he said Obama has a "spine of steel." And he compared the Dem nom to President Kennedy.

Meanwhile, isn't Biden actually turning the McCain camp's chief argument for the GOP nom's experience on its head? Biden is essentially saying, "Hey America, if an international problem emerges, who would you rather have leading the nation, communicating with the countries of the world?" Seems he's raising the temperment matter, though not explicitly. And that last line -- "He's gonna need help" -- seems like typical Biden self-congratulations. Obama has me by his side, Biden is saying. Remember who's standing next to the other guy.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

SEATTLE, WA -- With 15 days remaining until voters go to the polls, Barack Obama's campaign granted access to Joe Biden's medical records today for the first time. The information, provided by Biden to the campaign during the vetting process this summer, is not comprehensive but appears to indicate that he is in generally good condition.

Biden's personal physician, Dr. John Eisold, the attending physician of the United States Senate, was not made available to speak with reporters. He did give a briefing to Dr. Matthew Parker, a Washington physician, who relayed information to reporters on a conference call this afternoon. Parker said he only reviewed the documents distributed to reporters but that his impression is that Biden is "in excellent health."

Included in the 49-page series of documents is a "Problem List" identifying 13 issues, most notably the cerebral aneurism Biden suffered in 1988, as well as a 2006 "atrial fibrillation," a heart condition that was deemed minor and treated only with aspirin. He is currently on medication for BPH and high cholesterol, and a recent examination found good blood pressure.

The reports provided to the reporters traveling with Biden in Seattle and to others in Washington and Chicago did not include any significant documentation of treatment for the aneurysm. The campaign has promised that there will be some information forwarded later on any follow-ups and brain scans. Parker, because he only reviewed the records, said he was not in a position to discuss whether additional testing should be done.

"The only information I have past that is what you have in front of you," he said. "I do have a very clear impression from Dr. Eisold, his treating personal physician, that he was fine and everything that needed to be done was being done. But I have the same information that you do."

TAMPA, FL – At a rally to drum up excitement over early voting, Barack Obama said even his rival’s running mate has denounced her campaign’s tactics.

The Democratic nominee was referring to comments Sarah Palin made to journalists yesterday when asked about robocalls voters in several states have reported receiving. The calls link Obama to William Ayers, a college professor who was an antigovernment radical in the 1960’s.

Obama told the audience of 8,000 people at a baseball stadium here that power concedes nothing without a fight and that his campaign would fight until the end, despite the negative tone the race had taken.

“In the final days of campaigns, the say-anything, do-anything politics too often takes over. We’ve seen it before and we’re seeing it again today,” he said. “Ugly phone calls, misleading mail, misleading TV ads, careless, outrageous comments. All aimed at keeping us from working together. All aimed at stopping change. It’s getting so bad that even Sen. McCain’s running mate denounced his tactics last night. You know you really have to work hard to violate Gov Palin’s standards on negative campaigning."

His line was met with roars of applause, but upon closer examination does not appear to be totally accurate. The campaign confirmed he was talking about Palin’s statement on robocalls, but while the Alaska governor told reporters she thought robocalls were irritating to voters, she pointedly refused to denounce them.

Obama, a White Sox fan, was introduced by a group of Tampa Bay Rays, who encouraged people to get out and vote early. He congratulated the team for winning the American League pennant, even joking that he had considered sporting a Mohawk in solidarity. He then made his own pitch to get out the early vote.

“You can start voting today so I want everybody after this rally if you have not already voted, I want you to go vote,” he said. “Don’t wait until Nov 4th. You don’t know what might happen on Nov. 4th. Your car might break down; ou might have an emergency; the alarm might not go off, you don’t get to work on time and so take the advantage of early vote. If you don’t know where to go vote, call 877-2FL-OBAMA. 877-2FL-OBAMA. But we want everybody to go to the polls now. Go early. We’re gonna make sure your vote is counted.”

The mention of emergencies or problems that could delay or prevent a trip to the polls on Election Day echoed ones used by Obama's former rival Hillary Clinton during the primaries as she sought to encourage early voting in the states that allowed it. He was set to join the New York senator at a rally in Orlando tonight, their first joint appearance on the trail since the convention.

The event in Hillsborough County, which George W. Bush won in the last two elections, marked Obama’s sixth trip to the Sunshine State during the general election.

As an on-air commentator, she'll opine, not report.

In St. Charles, MO, this morning John McCain suggested that Barack Obama is already selecting his Cabinet:

"Now my friends, I gotta give you some straight talk, my friends, you deserve it and I owe it to you. Let me give you the state of the race today. We have 15 days to go. We're a few points down. The national media has written us off, [boo] as they have several times in the past. Just the other day, Senator Obama's campaign announced that he's choosing his cabinet. He's measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending and concede defeat in Iraq. My friends, I will never concede defeat, I will bring us home with honor and victory. But despite the prognostications of the national media, they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've got them we've got them just where we want them."

NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports that McCain, Sen. Lindsey Graham by his side, spoke to a crowd of 2,000-3,000 people.

COLORADO SPRINGS, CO - Gov. Sarah Palin said Monday that Barack Obama's tax plan would "stifle the entrepreneurial spirit" of America.

She told supporters at a minor-league baseball stadium that Obama's tax plan would give tax credits to people who do not pay income tax and therefore discourage work.

"Our opponent's plan to redistribute wealth will ultimately punish hard work and productively, it discourages productivity, and it will stifle the entrepreneurial spirit that has made this country unique and has made it the greatest country on earth," she said at Security Service Field.

Palin also criticized Obama's experience, noting he spent "just 304 days in the Senate before running for president." She suggested John McCain's military service and time as a prisoner of war better served him to lead.

Noticeably absent from Palin's speech was most talk of ACORN, the community group under federal investigation for voter registration fraud. While Palin had hammered Obama for his ties to the group in recent days, all that remained Monday was a passing reference, saying Obama would not disavow a group committing voter fraud.

Palin's visit to Colorado - where she will hold three rallies Monday - coincides with the start of early voting in the state. She encouraged those in attendance to vote early.

"If you believe what we believe in, and if you're ready to shake up Washington and clean up Wall Street, if you're ready to get this economy back on track and win these wars, John McCain and I are asking for your vote," she said.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

Calling Barack Obama the "greatest fundraiser in presidential political history," John McCain campaign manager Rick Davis urged the Democratic nominee to identify his small donors.

During a morning call with reporters, Davis said Obama has made transparency a cornerstone of his White House bid and that disclosing the identity of all of his donors should be tantamount to his message.

"From our perspective a little bit of sunshine, a little bit of transparency will go a long way on this issue," he said. "They're being kept secret by the Obama campaign for no good reason."

Obama's team announced yesterday that the Democrat raised a record $150M in September. The FEC does not require candidates to release the names of individuals who give less than $200. But Davis suggested there's no way to be sure Obama is not receiving small-dollar donations from abroad. And he said the Republican National Committee is creating a database for all party donors; gifts will be logged and available for public review within 24 hours of their receipt.

"What we are trying to do is include the broadest possible transparency," Davis said.

"The question remains -- Why, with the technology he has in his hands and the demands on transparency that he is so well known for, doesn't he do the same thing?" he added of Obama.

Davis confirmed reports indicating that McCain has about $45M cash on hand. He suggested that the RNC's kitty creates financial parity between the campaigns.

Despite criticism of Obama's disclosure, even Davis seemed awed by his fundraising prowess, saying of the Democrat's September take: "There's nothing that can describe what a huge effort that is."

He joked that Obama should sink some of his cash into the struggling financial markets. "That's my new strategy," he teased, "make him buy stock."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

The AFL-CIO began the final push today of its effort to woo union swing voters who are retirees, veterans and gun owners to the Democratic cause. They're sending a new mailer to 500K retirees in nine battleground states: PA, OH, MI, WI, CO, IN, MN, NC and FL.The piece -- which notes that "McCain is turning his back on retirees" -- focuses on health care and Social Security. McCain, it says, wants to privatize Social Security, tax health care benefits and cut Medicare.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll of nat'l LVs, conducted 10/17-19, shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 5%, down from his 8% advantage in the poll conducted 10/3-5. The margin of error for the data is +/- 3.5%.

WH '08 General Election Matchup
-               Now 10/5
Obama/Biden     51% 53%
McCain/Palin    46  45

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Sarah Palin last night on the tarmac in Colorado Springs told reporters she does not believe the GOP should be relying on robocalls linking Barack Obama to Bill Ayers.

Palin, in a transcript provided by FOX News's embed: "If I called all the shots, and if I could wave a magic wand, I would be sitting at a kitchen table with more and more Americans, talking to them about our plan to get the economy back on track and winning the war and not having to rely on the old conventional ways of campaigning that includes those robocalls and includes spending so much money on the television ads that I think is kinda draining out there in terms of Americans' attention span, they get a bit irritated with just being inundated, and you're seeing a lot of that of course with the huge amounts of money that Barack Obama is able to spend on his ads and his robocalls also."

The full transcript of her conversation with reporters is available after the jump.

Obama/Biden 47%

McCain/Palin 42%

Undec 8%

- Obama's 5% lead in today's Diageo/Hotline release is his smallest advantage in the tracker since the poll conducted 10/5-7.

- After leading white LVs by just 2% as recently as 8/10, McCain has now held a 9% margin for three consecutive days.

- The enthusiasm gap between the candidates is now 16%. 68% of Obama supporters say they are enthusiastically supporting the Dem nominee, while 52% of McCain supporters say the same. One week ago, in the survey completed 10/12, the gap was 21% -- with 65% enthusiastically for Obama and just 44% enthusiastically for McCain.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/17-19 by FD, surveyed 789 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 40%D, 37%R, 18%I.

For subscribers, look to today's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Even a Sunday stump appearance by John McCain couldn't keep Gen./ex-Sec/State Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama on "Meet the Press" off the headlines. McCain also spoke to "Fox News Sunday," where he responded to the Powell endorsement:

McCain: "Well, I've always admired and respected General Powell. We're longtime friends. This doesn't come as a surprise. But I'm also very pleased to have the endorsement of four former secretaries of state, Secretaries Kissinger, Baker, Eagleburger and Haig. And I'm proud to have the endorsement of well over 200 retired Army generals and admirals. But I respect and continue to respect and admire Secretary Powell."

Fox's Wallace: "Just briefly, though, one of the key lines of your campaign has been that Obama's not ready to lead. Here is Colin Powell saying he is."

McCain: "We have a respectful disagreement, and I think the American people will pay close attention to our message for the future and keeping America secure."

Much more, including Powell's comments, more from McCain, and pol and pundit react, after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Political endorsements matter in as much as they become a multi-day story. And Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama had the potential to be a reliable two-day story for the Democrat, a plus, of course, given that there are just 16 days remaining in the contest. But Powell went several steps further than a simple endorsement, and in so doing he not only conveyed to Obama his valued seal of approval as one of the nation's most respected military and foreign policy minds, he picked apart John McCain's case for his candidacy and denounced the Republican nominee's approach to winning the presidential contest.

Here's how:

-- He affirmed the Obama campaign line that McCain has been erratic in his response to the nation's economic crisis.

Powell: "In the case of Mr. McCain, I found that he was a little unsure as to deal with the economic problems that we were having and almost every day there was a different approach to the problem. And that concerned me, sensing that he didn't have a complete grasp of the economic problems that we had."

-- He said the American people aren't interested in negative politics, and he questioned McCain's use of Bill Ayers and related robocalls.

Powell: "And I've also been disappointed, frankly, by some of the approaches that Senator McCain has taken recently, or his campaign ads, on issues that are not really central to the problems that the American people are worried about. This Bill Ayers situation that's been going on for weeks became something of a central point of the campaign. But Mr. McCain says that he's a washed-out terrorist. Well, then, why do we keep talking about him? And why do we have these robocalls going on around the country trying to suggest that, because of this very, very limited relationship that Senator Obama has had with Mr. Ayers, somehow, Mr. Obama is tainted. What they're trying to connect him to is some kind of terrorist feelings. And I think that's inappropriate. Now, I understand what politics is all about. I know how you can go after one another, and that's good. But I think this goes too far. And I think it has made the McCain campaign look a little narrow. It's not what the American people are looking for. And I look at these kinds of approaches to the campaign and they trouble me."

-- He criticized not just the suggestion by some Republicans that Obama is a Muslim but also the broader implication of using religion to divide.

Powell: "He is not a Muslim, he's a Christian. He's always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America. Is there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president? Yet, I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, 'He's a Muslim and he might be associated terrorists.' This is not the way we should be doing it in America."

-- He criticized McCain's pick of Sarah Palin and praised Obama's selection of Joe Biden as deliberate.

Powell: "And I was also concerned at the selection of Governor Palin. She's a very distinguished woman, and she's to be admired; but at the same time, now that we have had a chance to watch her for some seven weeks, I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States, which is the job of the vice president. And so that raised some question in my mind as to the judgment that Senator McCain made. On the Obama side, I watched Mr. Obama and I watched him during this seven-week period. And he displayed a steadiness, an intellectual curiosity, a depth of knowledge and an approach to looking at problems like this and picking a vice president that, I think, is ready to be president on day one."

-- He concludes that Obama is indeed a "transformational" figure and calls for a generational change in leadership, sanctioning the Democrat's experience and credentials.

Powell: "So, when I look at all of this and I think back to my Army career, we've got two individuals, either one of them could be a good president. But which is the president that we need now? Which is the individual that serves the needs of the nation for the next period of time? And I come to the conclusion that because of his ability to inspire, because of the inclusive nature of his campaign, because he is reaching out all across America, because of who he is and his rhetorical abilities--and we have to take that into account--as well as his substance--he has both style and substance--he has met the standard of being a successful president, being an exceptional president. I think he is a transformational figure. He is a new generation coming into the world-- onto the world stage, onto the American stage, and for that reason I'll be voting for Senator Barack Obama."

Powell discounts the chief arguments McCain has made for his candidacy and against Obama's. He said he won't stump for the Democratic nominee, but he doesn't have to. His words will resonate -- and likely show up in ads running in battleground states -- until Nov. 4 and could go far in helping Obama woo moderate voters in the waning days of the race.

There is nothing McCain can say or do to diminish the power of Powell's words without knocking the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs. And that would only prove Powell's point, wouldn't it?

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Barack Obama raised a staggering $150M in September. He added 632K new donors for a total of 3.1M donors to the campaign to date, according to campaign manager David Plouffe. The average donation for the month was less than $100. Campaign contribution average is $86.

Obama/Biden 48%
McCain/Palin 41%
Undec 8%

- Five Guy. Obama maintained his 7% lead from yesterday's tracking poll. The IL Sen. has now held a statistically significant advantage in five consecutive Diageo/Hotline releases.

- King Of Swing? Obama now leads battleground state LVs by just 6%. As recently as 10/15, Obama led these LVs -- in CO, FL, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI -- by 22%.

- Whole Lotta Love. McCain has also made noticeable gains among white women. The GOP nominee now holds a 47-43% advantage; one week ago, in the survey completed 10/11, Obama led 47-46%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/16-18 by FD, surveyed 785 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

For subscribers, look to Monday's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama this morning on NBC's "Meet the Press."

Powell:

"I have said to Mr. McCain that I admire all he has done. I have some concerns about the direction that the party has taken in recent years it has moved more to the right than I would like to see it."

Powell said McCain seemed "unsure" as to how to deal with economic problems facing the nation. "I was also concerned at the selection of Gov. Palin. ... I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States, which is the job of the vice president. So that raised some question in my mind as to the judgment Sen. McCain made."

Obama, Powell said -- "I think he has a definitive way of doing business that would serve us well." The GOP's approach and appeal has gotten narrower, he said. "Mr. Obama, at the same time, has given us a more inclusive, broader reach into the needs and aspirations of our people. He's crossing lines, ethnic lines, racial lines, generational lines."

Here he is talking to reporters outside the NBC studios in Washington this morning: "Obama has demonstrated the kind of calm, patient, intellectual, steady approach to problem solving that I think we need in this country."

Obama/Biden 49%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 7%

- The Base That They Gave Me. Obama now leads LVs by 7%; one week ago, in the survey completed 10/10, his lead was 10%. While Obama's margins among Indies and Dems are nearly identical to last week, McCain's advantage among GOPers has jumped 10%.

- Phony Mahoney? On the generic Congressional ballot, the Dems now hold just a 3% margin, a record low in the Diageo/Hotline tracking poll. Van Hollen & Co. lead 42-39% with 16% undec; one week ago, they led 44-31% with 18% undec.

- Triumph, The Insult Economic Dog. Economic concerns remain paramount among LVs. 68% now feel the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S., a figure which ties the record 68% citing the economy one week ago.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/15-17 by FD, surveyed 797 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.

For subscribers, look to Monday's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

More to come, but in the meantime, Cindy McCain's 2007 tax returns can be viewed here. Note the Friday evening drop.

Maybe after this interview Rep. Michelle Bachmann will spend some time with Carly Fiorina in the political hinterlands. Nothing like a member of Congress asserting that lawmakers -- read Barack Obama -- should be investigated for un-American activity.

"I'm very concerned that he may have anti-American views," Bachmann said of Obama. "That's what the American people are concerned about."

More: "The news media should do a penetrating expose and take a look -- I wish they would -- I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out: Are they pro America or anti America? I think people would love to see an expose like that."

So what would Bachmann suggest Congress call the panel conducting an examination of such anti-American behavior?

How about: House Un-American Activities Committee, The Sequel.

Colin Powell appears Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," and all of Washington is champing at the bit to know if he'll back Barack Obama.

If Powell, retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, does endorse, he blesses Obama as a capable leader who is able to manage critical national security and foreign policy matters. Though his push for the Iraq war somewhat tarnished his stellar reputation as a respected military man, Powell, who served three Republican presidents, remains popular. His support for Obama could sway moderates, males, in particular, and working class whites who might be buying into the GOP's line that Obama isn't patriotic or American enough.

I first reported in July that Powell met privately with Obama in the general's Alexandria office. At the time, Powell's spokeswoman told me that it was an informal meeting and that "there’s no looming endorsement." But with 18 days to go, perhaps Powell has decided that it's time to take the plunge. With Obama surging in national and many battleground polls, perhaps Powell is ready to help push him over the finish line.

(JS)

MELBOURNE, FL -- If you thought John McCain's campaign might have taken the whole Joe the Plumber thing far enough, at the GOP nom's rally today the metaphor was lifted to a whole new level.

Joe was featured on t-shirts worn by supporters both inside and outside the rally.

With a big "Hello my name is..." name tag on the front, the t-shirt introduces the wearer as "Joe the Plumber," and at the bottom it says, "and I support McCain-Palin."

The t-shirts seem to have nothing to do with the campaign itself, but behind the candidate were various Joe-themed signs including "Let Joe Keep his Dough" and "It's Joe's Dough not Obama's."

(Typically campaign signs are usually made by the campaign or the local party and distributed to supporters upon arrival.)

McCain implied this morning, however, that it was Obama's fault that Joe was receiving so much attention.

"People are digging through his personal life," McCain said of his new campaign mascot. "He has TV crews camped out in front of his house. He didn't ask for Senator Obama to come to his house. He wasn't recruited or prompted by our campaign. He just asked a question. And Americans ought to be able to ask Senator Obama tough questions without being smeared and targeted with political attacks."

But after Wednesday's debate and today's rallies, it seems it's the McCain campaign that continues to thrust Joe into the limelight.

(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)

The Chicago Tribune, Barack Obama's hometown paper, endorsed a Democrat for president today for the first time:

Many Americans say they're uneasy about Obama. He's pretty new to them.

We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready.

The Los Angeles Times ed board on why members did not back John McCain:

John McCain distinguished himself through much of the Bush presidency by speaking out against reckless and self-defeating policies. He earned The Times' respect, and our endorsement in the California Republican primary, for his denunciation of torture, his readiness to close the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and his willingness to buck his party on issues such as immigration reform. But the man known for his sense of honor and consistency has since announced that he wouldn't vote for his own immigration bill, and he redefined "torture" in such a disingenuous way as to nearly embrace what he once abhorred.

Indeed, the presidential campaign has rendered McCain nearly unrecognizable. His selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate was, as a short-term political tactic, brilliant. It was also irresponsible, as Palin is the most unqualified vice presidential nominee of a major party in living memory. The decision calls into question just what kind of thinking -- if that's the appropriate word -- would drive the White House in a McCain presidency. Fortunately, the public has shown more discernment, and the early enthusiasm for Palin has given way to national ridicule of her candidacy and McCain's judgment.

Sarah Palin spoke with reporters on her plane for eight minutes this afternoon. She was asked about:

Bill Ayers

The Rev. Jeremiah Wright

Barack Obama's affection for America

GOP strategy in IN and NC

Her qualifications to be commander in chief

The number of times a day she speaks with John McCain

Her SNL appearance tmrw eve ("Oh man. I'm excited for tomorrow night.")

And her voting sched. Ie, will she return to Alaska to cast a ballot?

Full transcript, per NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger, available after the jump.

John McCain will host a tele-town hall with Jewish leaders from across the country Sunday at 10:30 a.m. Participants will include rabbis and lay leaders from around the country, with representation from groups like Chabad-Lubavitch, Agudath Israel, Orthodox Union, Young Israel, in addition to Orthodox, Conservative and Reform Rabbis.

Sen. Joe Lieberman will join, too.

Per the campaign: "The call will allow Senator McCain to have a dialogue with Jewish leaders and discuss issues critical to the Jewish community such as Israel, national security and the economy. In traditional town-hall fashion, there will be a question-and-answer session with Senator McCain. This call is a follow-up from our national call with Chabad-Lubavitch Rabbis from 47 different states which took place at the end of August."

We're seeing some wacky polling in House races lately:

Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL 24) down 24%. And Rep. Lee Terry (R-NE 02) leading by just 1% in a CD that gave Pres. Bush 60% in '04. Really?

You can now add Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA 50) to the new heap of GOP incumbents who should be suddenly very worried. A new poll, conducted for atty/ex-San Diego City prosecutor Nick Leibham's (D) camp, shows him trailing Bilbray by a miniscule 44-42% margin.

This may feel like deja vu for GOPers. In the '06 special election to fill imprisoned-Rep. Duke Cunningham's (R) term, Bilbray needed $4.5M from the NRCC to skate by a relatively lackluster Dem. What's worrisome for Bilbray is that the cash-starved NRCC can't afford to put anywhere near that amount in his CD to save it this year. And the DCCC has enough cash, if it chooses to enter the contest, to make a difference. The NRCC simply can't afford to overwhelm Dem efforts here like they did in '06.

And CA-50 is just a microcosm of what's going on nationally for GOPers. The landscape right now is just nasty. It's the same environment that has put once-solid Reps. like Mark Souder (R-IN 03) and Henry Brown (R-SC 01) in real contests. Incumbents that haven't had races in a long time are now having to gear up. And it may be too late to save some of them.

Polls like these remind us that Dems didn't knock off all the low-hanging fruit in the House in '06. The difference is that the DCCC now has the cash advantage to attempt to finish the job.

UPDATE: The Bilbray camp released its own poll this p.m. showing a 48-35% lead for the GOPer, and notes that it has just begun its media campaign, so it expects Bilbray's numbers to rise. We'll see in a few weeks if Bilbray's or Leibham's version of this race is the correct one. The answer will tell us if Dems will pick up a ton of seats this cycle (25+), or just a lot (around 20).

(TIM SAHD)

During a stop in OH, just a dozen miles from the WV border, Joe Biden pledged this week that Barack Obama will carry the Mountain State and "shock the living Devil out of you all."

Next week, he can make that promise in person. The DE senator is tentatively planning to campaign in WV Friday, marking the first general election appearance in the state for the Democratic ticket.

Obama lost the 5/13 WV primary by more than 40 points. But deploying Biden to the state is in keeping with the campaign's strategy of sending the senator to more rural, working-class areas that backed Hillary Clinton in the primaries, places like Biden's hometown, Scranton, PA.

Biden is appearing today in NM for the first time since his selection as the VP nominee. He's expected to include in his remarks today a response to Sarah Palin's comment yesterday in NC that she was happy to be in the "pro-America" part of the country.

The stop is the first public campaign event for him on a brief West Coast swing. He campaigns later tonight in NV, and will hold a rally Sunday in Tacoma, WA. Next week's itinerary also includes a two-day visit to CO.

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts Colin Powell and a roundtable with NBC pol. dir. Chuck Todd, New York Times' David Brooks, Newsweek's Jon Meacham, NBC's Andrea Mitchell and MSNBC's Joe Scarborough.

Face the Nation hosts Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH), MO Gov. Matt Blunt (R) and VA Gov. Tim Kaine (D).

This Week hosts TBD.

Fox News Sunday hosts John McCain.

Late Edition hosts Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), House Min. Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO), GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez, GOP strategist Alex Castellanos, Dem strategist Jamal Simmons, CNN's Gloria Borger, CNN's Campbell Brown and CNN's Bill Schneider.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

The AP is reporting that Sarah Palin will appear on SNL this weekend on the show hosted by actor Josh Brolin, who plays President Bush in the new movie, "W." McCain campaign spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker, today confirmed Palin's visit but offered no additional details about the show.

With just 14 new polls out since 10/14, today's Electoral College projection indicates Barack Obama still leads John McCain 361 EVs to 177 EVs with no toss-up states. But three states moved from solid to lean within candidate totals.

Obama now leads 261 to 128 among solid EVs, down from his 297 to 143 solid EV margin on 10/14. Both CO and FL -- and their 36 total EVs -- shifted from solid Obama to lean Obama, while GA (15 EVs) moved from solid McCain to lean McCain.

Three new FL polls in today's update -- conducted by Research 2000, Hamilton Campaigns (D) and CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. -- all show Obama leading within the margin of error. CO saw a similar trend as two new surveys, including a CNN/Time/ORC poll, showed Obama with statistically insignificant advantages.

Meanwhile in GA, another CNN/Time/ORC poll released 10/15 showed McCain with a solid lead. This matchup, however, was superseded by a Research 2000 poll out last p.m. which showed GA as lean McCain. Research 2000 is currently the only pollster to show McCain with a statistically insignificant lead in GA.

There are 10 new battleground state polls in this edition of Battle For The Electoral College. Obama leads nine of these surveys, including two by statistically significant margins (Muhlenberg College in PA and CNN/Time/ORC in VA). McCain leads the remaining survey, another CNN/Time/ORC MO poll, by just 1%.

The chart available after the jump reflects all state polls conducted fully since the conclusion of the GOP convo on 9/4. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(CARRIE DINDINO)

New Barack Obama ad running in "key states" says John McCain will tax health benefits and cut Medicare.

The Washington Post endorsed Barack Obama this morning:

The choice is made easy in part by Mr. McCain's disappointing campaign, above all his irresponsible selection of a running mate who is not ready to be president. It is made easy in larger part, though, because of our admiration for Mr. Obama and the impressive qualities he has shown during this long race. Yes, we have reservations and concerns, almost inevitably, given Mr. Obama's relatively brief experience in national politics. But we also have enormous hopes.

Mr. Obama is a man of supple intelligence, with a nuanced grasp of complex issues and evident skill at conciliation and consensus-building. At home, we believe, he would respond to the economic crisis with a healthy respect for markets tempered by justified dismay over rising inequality and an understanding of the need for focused regulation. Abroad, the best evidence suggests that he would seek to maintain U.S. leadership and engagement, continue the fight against terrorists, and wage vigorous diplomacy on behalf of U.S. values and interests. Mr. Obama has the potential to become a great president. Given the enormous problems he would confront from his first day in office, and the damage wrought over the past eight years, we would settle for very good.

It's blurry, but here's a clip of Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel rocking out for Barack Obama last night in NYC.

Obama cautioned his supporters: "Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up." Pool report of the event, courtesy of the New York Times' Jeff Zeleny, is available after the jump.

President Clinton might be relatively MIA these days on the trail, but Hillary Clinton does indeed appear to be doing all she can for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. She'll headline two 'Change We Need' rallies today in OH, Youngstown and Delaware to be precise. At each stop, Clinton is expected to highlight the Dems' plans "to bring economic relief to the middle class, add new jobs, help homeowners facing challenging times and respond to the current financial crisis," according to the campaign. Outreach to those white, working-class voters who backed her during the primaries.

Clinton will travel Monday to FL. She heads Tuesday to NE and MN.

Barack Obama and John McCain showed their funny bones are still in working order last night at the fabled Alfred E. Smith dinner in NYC. The white tie fete, an annual tribute to the first Roman Catholic presidential candidate, benefits Catholic Charities.

Lots of yucks. Take a look.

Obama:

McCain:

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 40%
Undec 7%

- Obama's 10% lead in today's Diageo/Hotline release equals his largest advantage ever in the tracking poll. The Dem nominee also led 50-40% in the poll completed 10/10.

- Obama now leads 50-37% on who would do the best job handling the economy, the fifth consecutive day he has led the issue by double digits. 66% of LVs and 67% of Indies believe the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S.

- The candidates meanwhile remain basically deadlocked on energy issues. 43% think Obama would do the best job managing U.S. energy policies, while 42% say McCain. Neither candidate has had a statistically significant lead on energy since the survey completed 10/10.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/14-16 by FD, surveyed 804 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

For subscribers, look to today's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

John McCain appeared on the "Late Show" to apologize for skipping out on David Letterman's 9/24 show.

Letterman: "Can you stay?"

McCain: "Depends on how bad it gets. I have a son in the Marine Corps and I asked him to Fed Ex me his helmet and flack jacket. But it didn't get here in time."

Letterman: "I think you'll be alright. Now, what exactly happened? I thought I was doing my part to save the economy, and then later I got to think, well maybe I'm just not important enough."

McCain: "I screwed up. But look at all the conversation I gave you."

After the jump, more McCain, Biden on Leno and Al Smith performances reviewed.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

John McCain's appearance on the "Late Show with David Letterman" was taped this afternoon and airs tonight. Transcript, complete with Letterman's Q about McCain's relationship with G. Gordon Liddy (see 'questionable associations'), available after the jump.

Thought it worth noting that tomorrow's Sarah Palin event in Noblesville, IN, is scheduled to be held at the, ahem, Verizon Wireless Music Center.

Given reports that Verizon erected a special cell tower near the McCains' Sedona ranch at the request of Cindy McCain, wouldn't the GOP ticket want to avoid all Verizon-named venues? At least until Cellgate loses its signal ...

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

(photo from the Toledo Blade)

When Barack Obama and Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher (aka Joe The Plumber) met recently in Ohio, the two got to talking about small businesses. Wurzelbacher told the senator he's a "plumber" and he's looking to buy a company. Obama asked how long he'd been a plumber. "Fifteen years," Wurzelbacher replied.

Oh, really?

Wurzelbacher registered as an apprentice with the Ohio State Apprenticeship Council in November 2003, according to Dennis Evans, spokesman with the Department of Job and Family Services. Records show his training, which was sponsored by A & W Newell Co. of Toledo, should have wrapped last year.

"We don't have a record of completion," Evans said. "All we know is that he registered in the program and has gone through to the point where we should have record of completion, but we don't."

And that's not the only record that's missing from Wurzelbacher's file. He doesn't have a plumbing license required by the city of Toledo to practice, according to a staffer with the Toledo Division of Building Inspection. Wurzelbacher, who now works for Newell Plumbing & Heating Co., said the owner, Al Newell, has a plumbing license and that "because he works for someone else, he doesn't need a license."

But even that's not true, according to the Toledo Division of Building Inspection. Wurzelbacher can't legally do plumbing work without a license, regardless of his boss's certification.

A staff person with the Toledo Division of Building Inspection told On Call this afternoon that her division will contact Wurzelbacher to notify him that he can't work without a license.

"We're trying to track him down," she said.

In the meantime, the Democrat-friendly local plumbers' union is fuming.

"He has no license whatsoever with the city of Toledo," said Tom Joseph, the business manager for Local Union 50 of the Plumbers, Steamfitters and Service Mechanics, which has endorsed Obama. "He has no license in the state of Ohio. He has no contractor's license in the state of Ohio. He is not a plumber. He works for a plumber."

What about Wurzelbacher's claim that he is "gettin' ready to buy a company that makes about two hundred and fifty, two hundred and seventy, two hundred and eighty thousand dollars a year" ... ? Wurzelbacher told reporters that when he was hired by Newell six years ago "the possibility of him eventually buying the company was discussed during his job interview."

According to Joseph, Newell Plumbing & Heating is far from a $250K-a-year operation. Newell is running "a two-man shop," he said. "This is not a thriving business."

Isn't there a chance it could be worth $250K? "Oh, God no," Joseph said. "Maybe if he sells him the house, the garage." He explained that the address for the business "is where the man lives at."

"The real Joe Plumbers are for Barack," Joseph added.

(SEAN J. MILLER)

John McCain campaign manager Rick Davis released a statement this afternoon about the FBI's investigation of ACORN:

"Given the fact the FBI has launched a nationwide investigation into the questionable voter registration practices of ACORN, it is imperative that Barack Obama's campaign cooperate fully with this important investigation. To date, in public announcements including last night's debate, Barack Obama has attempted to conceal and distort his and his campaign's relationship with a group that is currently engaging in systematic voter fraud. Barack Obama's campaign must fully disclose the true nature of his association with ACORN, including:

· The total disclosure of all funds, including $832,000 from Barack Obama's campaign to ACORN and ACORN affiliations like Citizens Services, Inc.

· Any and all information the Obama campaign has related to ACORN's database of registered voters compiled during this election cycle.

· The total disclosure of coordination between Barack Obama's campaign, ACORN, and ACORN affiliations over the entirety of this election cycle.

· The truth behind ACORN's hiring of get-out-the-vote workers on Barack Obama's behalf in Ohio during this election cycle.

"In the spirit of a fair election Barack Obama should assist in this process prior to Election Day," Davis said.

John McCain is on the "Late Show with David Letterman" tonight ... Making nice.