Menendez leads Kyrillos 45 percent to 35 percent in the survey. With less than three weeks to go before the June 5 primary, the latest numbers suggest little has changed in the race's landscape since the last survey. A Quinnipiac poll conducted last month showed Menendez leading Kyrillos 44 percent to 35 percent.

Most voters are unfamiliar with Kyrillos, who is a close friend of Republican Gov. Chris Christie. Seventy-five percent of New Jersey voters polled said they had not heard enough about the Republican challenger to form an opinion. Thirty-six percent said they had not heard enough about Menendez to form an opinion about him.

Independents voters prefer Menendez over Kyrillos 39 percent to 33 percent. And while Menendez and Kyrillos split the male vote -- 42 percent and 41 percent respectively -- women overwhelmingly chose the sitting senator over his Republican opponent, 47 to 29 percent.

-- Conservative grassroots activists are having a good month: Long before national groups swooped into Indiana, local tea party leaders rallied around Richard Mourdock. And long after they left Nebraska, Fischer will stand tall as the GOP nominee. If the tea party is going to make strides this year, it's going to be be at the local level, not the national one.

(RELATED: Explaining the Tea Party Takeover)

-- The candidates matter: In this race, neither a frontrunner hamstrung by ethics woes nor a yesterday's news statewide officeholder bolstered by outside money -- but running with an 0-3 Senate race record -- was palatable to voters. Instead, a candidate with humble campaign coffers and a conservative message won.

-- It was a bad night for the Club For Growth, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and FreedomWorks: The pro-Don Stenberg groups spent over $2 million combined. And for what? A distant third place finish for a well-known statewide official. The $2 million spent in Nebraska would be awfully useful in expensive Texas, where all three groups are backing Ted Cruz.

(RELATED: Fischer Wins GOP Senate Primary in Neb.)

-- Republicans are still favored to win Nebraska: Don't believe that Fischer's victory suddenly makes Bob Kerrey a favorite. It doesn't. Nebraska is still very conservative, the statewide environment is not good for Democrats and Fischer has been around politics long enough to run a competent campaign. What her win does do is add a bit more uncertainty to the race -- we know less about her than Bruning -- but the ball remains clearly in the GOP's court.

State Sen. Deb Fischer won the Nebraska GOP Senate primary Tuesday in a stunning come-from-behind victory that seemed inconceivable just a few weeks ago. With 79 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press called the race, with Fischer leading Attorney General Jon Bruning 40 percent to 36 percent. Treasurer Don Stenberg was third with 19 percent.

Fischer advances to a general election contest with former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey. The Republican is favored in Nebraska, a red state in a presidential year.

Bruning was the frontrunner throughout the race, greatly outspending his two opponents (while Bruning ran over 20,000 gross rating points in the state, all non-Bruning spending combined amounted to under 18,000 gross rating points, according to a source tracking media buys in the state). But he and Stenberg -- who was backed by conservative groups like Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund -- had been attacking each other. Fischer, who was largely ignored until the end, appeared to benefit from the sniping between the two men.

In the final week of the race, Fischer started gaining momentum and accepted a high-profile endorsement from Sarah Palin, and then one from Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb. A Super PAC boosted her with an ad during the final weekend of the primary.

"The difference in this race couldn't be more clear. Deb is a small business rancher, mother and conservative leader who believes we need to spend less, balance our budget and repeal ObamaCare, while her opponent supports bigger government and higher taxes," NRSC chairman John Cornyn said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Matt Canter called Fischer "an untested hypocritical politician whose record and positions have never been scrutinized."

There are two ways to look at Rep. Mike Pence's first TV ad.

Viewed one way, the Indiana Republican gubernatorial nominee's opening spot is pretty standard fare: It's a straightforward, minute-long introductory commercial underscoring his Hoosier roots and family values.

"There are two things I know about Mike Pence. He loves our family and he just loves Indiana. This year, we will celebrate our 27th wedding anniversary, and I will never forget that very first date," says Pence's wife, Karen Pence, who narrates the entire ad, which contains a lot about Pence's life.

Pretty typical stuff. And with Democrats trying to cast the frontrunning Pence as an out-of-touch Washington insider, and blasting him for living in Virginia, it's a timely rebuttal.

Viewed another way however, the spot features a subtle jab at Pence's opponent.

There is a heavy emphasis on Pence's marriage in the commercial, including a close-up of what could be viewed as a wedding ring.

That's significant because his opponent, Democratic nominee John Gregg, is divorced. It's by no means a campaign issue, but everything in politics is done only after careful calculation.

Pence's campaign says the ad is nothing more than an introductory bio spot.

It's a reminder of the multiple messages TV ads can carry - intentional or unintentional.

One week after the primary, the Republican Governors Association is going up with its first TV ad in North Carolina. The aim of the 30-second spot is clear: Tie Democratic nominee Walter Dalton to Gov. Bev Perdue.

"Walter Dalton is Bev Perdue's right-hand man. Now, Walter Dalton is running away from Perdue. But, under Perdue and Dalton's high tax policies, 40,000 more North Carolinians are out of work," says the narrator of the ad.

Struggling in the polls, Perdue, the first-term governor opted in January not to seek reelection, triggering a primary that Dalton, the state's lt. governor, won last week. Look for Republicans to try to tie the two together time and again leading up to November since Perdue is not a very popular figure in the state.

The Republican nominee, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is the frontrunner in the race. McCrory lost a close open race to Perdue in 2008.

One ad features a "worker" in a hard hat, but includes five seconds of dead time on screen with the worker only blinking. Another is a text-heavy spot in which almost every word narrated also appears on the screen.

The ads were paid for and produced by a super PAC that is boosting Berman in his marquee congressional match against fellow Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman after the two veteran Democrats were drawn into the same Los Angeles-area district last year.

The super PAC is not a low budget affair, having booked more than $175,000 in media buys in recent weeks.

And yet each of the ads "looks like it was done with somebody's home video camera," said Steve Maviglio, a California-based Democratic political strategist. "If it were sandwiched between an ad for a beauty parlor and a hamburger joint, it might not look so bad. But on the face of it the production is so amateurish."

Berman has plenty of Hollywood friends that could have lent a hand. Hollywood heavyweights Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and David Geffen co-hosted a mega-fundraiser for him last fall. Just last week, Berman accompanied President Obama to a glitzy fundraiser at George Clooney's home.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:21 to see some hilarious pranks Mitt Romney has pulled throughout the years.

For Barrett to defeat Republican Gov. Scott Walker, he needs to convince voters that the state's economy is headed in the wrong direction. Recent polling in Wisconsin shows the state is extremely polarized with only a sliver of the electorate undecided heading toward the recall general election. Arguments over collective bargaining rights for public sector unions are less important to these voters than those firmly entrenched on either side of the aisle. That is why the early stages of the Walker-Barrett rematch largely have focused on the economy, with the two sides continually bickering over the state's job numbers. If independent voters lose faith in Walker's ability to steer the economy, Barrett's chances of unseating the governor improve.

But the opposite is true for Obama. With Wisconsin potentially in play in November, the last thing the president's campaign wants is a growing sense that the economy is headed in the wrong direction, especially among all-important independent voters.

This is not to suggest that the Obama camp is by any means rooting for Walker over Barrett, who the White House recruited to run for governor in 2010. And momentum from a Barrett victory could ultimately boost Obama's chances in the Badger State. But for the moment, Barrett and Obama want voters to have very different views on the direction of the state's economy.

Nebraska is the ripest Republican pickup opportunity on the Senate map this cycle. With Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson retiring, former Sen. Bob Kerrey has the difficult task of trying to hold the seat for Democrats in the red state, in a presidential year, no less.

But Kerrey will be watching the GOP primary returns because the outcome of the vote will affect his prospects. He will likely enter the general election as the underdog against whoever the GOP nominee is, but he may be in a more competitive race if he isn't facing Bruning.

Before last week, the Republican race looked like a face-off between Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg, who is backed by the Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund, the Club for Growth, and FreedomWorks.

But suddenly, the mostly-ignored, underfunded third candidate in the race burst into contention. State Sen. Deb Fischer, a rancher, released an internal poll that showed her within striking distance of Bruning, with Stenberg slipping into third place. In the following days, Fischer's momentum started snowballing: she picked up an endorsement from Sarah Palin, then one from Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb. And perhaps most telling: Bruning went negative for the first time in a television ad, attacking Fischer and Stenberg. For a candidate who's been ignored for months, there's no better recognition that you're in the game.

"I've received a lot of encouragement and given serious consideration to seeking the office of Governor of Arkansas in 2014, a race that will begin early next year. However, after a lot of prayer and reflection, I have decided that I will not be a candidate for Governor in 2014," Ross said in a statement on his Facebook page.

Instead, he will be joining the Little-Rock based Southwest Power Pool at the end of his term as its senior vice-president for government affairs and public relations.

Ross's decision makes it likely that Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel will be the favored Democratic gubernatorial nominee in 2014, when Gov. Mike Beebe's term expires. Arkansas term limits prevent Beebe from seeking a third term.

The poll, which was first reported by the Washington Post, shows Mourdock and Donnelly tied at 40 percent, with 20 percent undecided.

The numbers fall in line with an argument that Democrats have made since Lugar went down last week: That the nomination of Mourdock, who ran to the right of Lugar and courted tea party support during the primary, gives Democrats a November pick-up opportunity in the Hoosier state.

After prevailing in what was at times an ugly primary battle with Lugar, Mourdock has become well-known in the state, with just 7 percent saying they have never heard of him, compared to 32 percent who said they have never heard of Donnelly. But the poll also shows a rise in the percentage of voters who dislike the treasurer. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they have an unfavorable view of Mourdock, while 36 said they have a favorable view. In a March poll conducted for the Donnelly campaign, just 22 percent said they viewed Mourdock unfavorably.

Asked of their opinion of Donnelly, 28 percent said they have a favorable opinion of the congressman, while 12 percent said they have an unfavorable opinion.

The Global Strategy Group survey of 602 Indiana registered voters was conducted Thursday through Monday and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The ad features an Obama impersonator thanking Donnelly for his support.

"We got the bailouts, the stimulus spending, and my favorite, Obamacare. We can always count on you Joe, and with you in the U.S. Senate we can march America forward," says the voice actor impersonating Obama.

The ad is one of what will likely be many similar spots Mourdock and his allied outside groups are going to use against Donnelly in the campaign. The refrain will likely be consistent: He's voted with the president on the major legislative battles like the stimulus and health care reform law.

USA Super PAC, the group airing the ad, spent about $150,000 to help Mourdock in the primary, and is spending $25,000 on a weeklong buy on statewide radio.

Both the Fischer campaign and Ricketts's super PAC denied any wrongdoing, the World-Herald reported.

Joe Ricketts is the father of Pete Ricketts, the 2006 Republican Senate nominee who lost to Sen. Ben Nelson. That year, Ricketts beat Don Stenberg in the primary.